The President's Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin (November 18, 2025)

Host: Mike Baker | Podcast: The President's Daily Brief
Main Topics: Russian Oil Sector Collapse, German Arms Exports to Israel

Episode Overview

This episode of The President's Daily Brief focuses on two major international developments: the escalating collapse of Russia’s oil sector under the combined impact of Ukrainian attacks and new U.S. sanctions, and the decision by Germany to resume arms exports to Israel following a months-long pause. Host Mike Baker brings key updates, their implications, and voices from the involved governments.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Russia’s Oil Sector Under Siege

[00:31–05:33]

a. Dual Pressure: Ukrainian Attacks & U.S. Sanctions

• Ukrainian Military Strikes:

  • Ukraine conducted a significant nighttime drone strike on a major Russian oil refinery in the Samara region (among the country’s top ten). The refinery produces 8.8 million metric tons yearly of fuels vital to Russia’s economy and its military.
    • “The strike was carried out with Ukraine's new jet propelled Bars drones, which have the range to reach nearly 900 miles inside Russian territory.” (Mike Baker [01:37])
  • This attack marks the sixth hit on the facility since the war began. Additional Ukrainian strikes targeted a storage site used by Russia’s elite Rubicon drone unit.

• New U.S. Sanctions:

  • Starting Friday, all transactions with Russia’s two largest oil firms (Rosneft and Lukoil) must wind down.
    • “India and China, the two biggest customers keeping Moscow's oil exports alive... are already reducing their purchases.” (Mike Baker [03:07])
  • Major Indian and Chinese refineries (Reliance, Bharat, Hindustan Petroleum; Sinopec, PetroChina) have halted direct oil purchases.

b. Economic Fallout

• The reduction in buyers has forced Russia’s flagship Urals crude to plummet to just over $36 a barrel—approaching record lows not seen since early 2023.
• Russia is facing a storage crisis; about 1.4 million barrels/day are sitting on ships as floating storage due to lack of buyers.
• Revenue from oil has dropped to $1.2 billion a week, a two-and-a-half-year low.
• Satellite trackers have noticed more Russian oil tankers turning off their transponders, signaling increased reliance on clandestine oil transfers.

c. Broader Consequences

• Russian economy, heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, is feeling immediate strain.
• The combination of sanctions and Ukrainian strikes is undermining both Russia’s finances and its military capabilities.
  • “Russia's war machine is under real financial strain. Hydrocarbons aren't just one part of the Russian economy. They're basically the whole thing.” (Mike Baker [04:56])
• Ukraine’s ability to strike deep in Russia forces a reallocation of Russian air defenses.

2. Germany Restores Arms Exports to Israel

[06:37–09:51]

a. Germany’s Policy Shift

• Three months after freezing arms exports amid accusations against Israel’s operations in Gaza, Berlin will resume shipments on Nov. 24.
  • “Germany is second only to the US when it comes to Israel's defense needs, supplying some 30% of its major arms imports from 2019 to 2023.” (Mike Baker [06:50])
• The August freeze started as a targeted pause but ended up completely halting approvals.
• The pause was initiated by Chancellor Friedrich Mertz due to domestic and international pressure.

b. The Ceasefire and Changing Conditions

• Berlin cites stabilization after the Gaza ceasefire and the U.S.-brokered 20-point peace plan as reasons to resume exports.
  • “Government spokesman Stefan Cornelius said yesterday that those limits will no longer apply, pointing to the Trump administration's 20 point peace plan, which he said has, quote, stabilized in recent weeks.” (Mike Baker [08:06])
• Exports will return to case-by-case reviews rather than a blanket pause.
• German and Israeli leaders praise the move, with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar urging other nations to follow Germany’s lead.

c. Domestic & Diplomatic Repercussions

• The halt had been deeply controversial in Germany, regarded by many as straining Berlin's historical responsibility toward Israel.
  • “Support for Israel has long been anchored in the country's commitment to Israel, shaped by the legacy, of course, of World War II and the Holocaust.” (Mike Baker [08:52])
• The decision marks a return to Germany’s longstanding foreign policy principles.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Ukrainian drones are striking deep inside the country while new US Sanctions are choking off the Kremlin's biggest customers. This combination is turning into a serious problem for Moscow.”
  — Mike Baker [00:38]

• “That buyer strike, as analysts are calling it, has disrupted nearly half of Russia's oil exports to China. The result has been devastating for Russia. A collapse in the price of Russia's flagship Urals crude.”
  — Mike Baker [03:41]

• “Lower prices mean lower revenues, and lower revenues mean fewer resources to sustain Putin's war.”
  — Mike Baker [05:01]

• “German officials now acknowledge [the pause] functioned far more broadly, effectively stopping every export request cold far beyond what Berlin originally had signaled.”
  — Mike Baker [08:28]

• “Berlin argues the conditions that triggered the pause have meaningfully shifted and that renewed cooperation fits its strategic obligations.”
  — Mike Baker [08:15]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:31 – 05:33: Russian oil sector crisis — Ukrainian attacks and new U.S. sanctions detailed
• 06:37 – 09:51: Germany’s resumption of arms exports to Israel & policy context

Tone & Style

Mike Baker’s delivery is concise, analytical, and direct—drawing on his intelligence background. He offers historical context, geopolitical analysis, and clear, jargon-free explanations of complex events.

Useful for listeners seeking a brief yet thorough analysis of the day’s top international stories, highlighting the real-world consequences for Russia's financial health and shifting Western support for Israel.