The President's Daily Brief (PDB): Afternoon Bulletin

Episode: November 21st, 2025
Host: Mike Baker (The First TV)
Duration: ~18 min (excluding ads)
Main Topics:

• Secret U.S. Wargame Models Possibility of Maduro’s Collapse in Venezuela
• Trump’s Thanksgiving Peace Deadline for Ukraine

Episode Overview

Mike Baker delivers a focused analysis of two major international stories: a little-understood U.S. wargame simulating the aftermath of Venezuelan regime change, and escalating White House pressure on Ukraine to accept a controversial 28-point peace plan with a Thanksgiving deadline. The bulletin contextualizes these stories with historical comparisons, insider details, and candid assessment of the stakes for U.S. foreign policy.

Secret US Wargame: The Fallout of Toppling Maduro

Segment Start: [00:35]

Key Points & Insights

• US Military Buildup & Pressure on Venezuela: The U.S. is ramping up diplomatic and military pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s regime, including possible terrorist designations and military deployments in the Caribbean.
• Wargame Revelations: A recently surfaced New York Times report details a classified U.S. wargame during President Trump’s first term, modeling what would happen if Maduro was pushed from power.
  • Outcome: Not a restoring of democracy, but “chaos, prolonged, grinding, unpredictable chaos” ([02:11]).
  • Scenarios Considered: Military coup, popular uprising, or negotiated exit. All resulted in Venezuela fracturing—territory carved by cartels, Colombian guerrillas intervening, and segments of Venezuelan military going rogue.
  • Economic Collapse: Oil fields (national economic core) become contested; central government unable to reassert control.
• Historical Context & Lessons: Baker draws parallels to chaotic regime changes in Libya, Iraq, Chile, Nicaragua, South Vietnam, Iran, and Guatemala—emphasizing, “regime change is almost never pretty” ([00:47]).
  • Quote: “It's worth pausing there, because that's not the picture that US politicians usually paint when they talk about Venezuela.”
• Foreign Players: The wargame included scenarios involving Russia, China, and Iran—each with significant interests in Venezuela (arms, intelligence, loans, infrastructure)—all poised to exploit the vacuum.
  • “If Venezuela collapses, you don't just get Venezuela. You get a host of other interested players” ([05:13]).
• Maduro’s Defensive Posturing: The regime threatens asymmetric warfare, mobilizing “people’s armies” to defend against external pressure.
• Policy Takeaway: The U.S. may be pushing for a regime outcome it simultaneously knows could generate regional chaos and foreign intervention.
  • “What the wargame suggests is that Washington shouldn't assume a post Maduro Venezuela looks anything like a stable state. It may look more like a vacuum...” ([04:03]).
  • “All of this lands at a moment when the Trump administration is weighing options that could push the crisis toward a breaking point. And it raises a pretty important question: Is the U.S. actually prepared for the fallout that it's already predicted?” ([06:00–06:25]).

Notable Quotes

• Mike Baker:

  “The people who ran it weren’t guessing. They were using the best intelligence available at the time… What they saw wasn’t a victory parade.” ([07:04])

Trump’s Peace Plan: Thanksgiving Deadline for Ukraine

Segment Start: [11:42]

Key Points & Insights

• Deadline & Ultimatum: President Trump warns Kyiv to accept a new 28-point peace plan by Thanksgiving, “or else.” Despite public framing as a “goal, not an ultimatum,” the threat includes potentially cutting intelligence and military aid.
  • “The president publicly reinforced that timeline on Friday, calling it appropriate and warning that Ukraine could, quote, lose in a short period of time if talks stall.” ([11:52])
  • “Multiple anonymous sources told Reuters Friday that the Trump administration is threatening to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine if leaders in Kyiv don't get on board.” ([12:40])
• Peace Plan Details (as leaked):
  • Ukraine would cede all of Donbass (including areas still under Ukrainian control).
  • Crimea ceded to Russia.
  • The front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions would be frozen, forming a demilitarized zone.
  • Ukraine would be barred from joining NATO and have an army cap of 600,000.
  • US-provided “security guarantees” are vague.
  • NATO would not expand further, nor station troops in Ukraine.
  • Sanctions on Russia would be gradually lifted; Russia could rejoin the G8 and global economy.
• Zelensky’s Dilemma: Zelensky, under intense pressure, tries to balance diplomatic tact with resolve, emphasizing “dignity” and the risk of losing U.S. support.
  • Quote: “This is one of the most difficult moments in our history. The pressure on Ukraine is one of the hardest.” ([13:10], quoting Zelensky)
  • He signals openness to “constructive, honest and prompt work,” but does not endorse key plan aspects.
• European Outrage: Allies excluded from the process; European leaders see the plan as a capitulation to Putin and a danger to EU security.
  • EU Foreign Policy Chief Gaia Kallas: “This is a very dangerous moment for all.” ([14:55])
• Russian Response: Publicly cautious, privately supportive—since the plan largely mirrors their historic demands.
  • “You’d think Moscow would be fawning over the agreement… but so far publicly, the Kremlin is taking a cautious approach.” ([16:30])
  • Speculation that Russian and U.S. envoys played a behind-the-scenes role in crafting the framework.
• Host Commentary:
  • Baker lampoons the framework as “Putin would get a pony,” highlighting how the plan overwhelmingly favors Russia.
  • Quote: “They fear the concessions will embolden Russia, fracture the Ukrainian government and leave [Europe] holding the security burden for a weakened Ukraine, all while Putin gets to claim victory, because, well, yeah, it would be a victory.” ([17:18])

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On US regime change history:
  “Regime change is almost never pretty. Let’s see, there’s Libya, Iraq, Chile, Nicaragua, South Vietnam… yeah, definitely South Vietnam, Iran, Guatemala. Yeah, we’ve got some practical case studies that we could learn from.” — Mike Baker ([00:47])
• On expectations vs. reality in Venezuela:
  “Even if Maduro falls, the US may not like what comes next.” — Mike Baker ([03:43])
• On Trump’s Ukraine deadline:
  “Ukraine could, quote, lose in a short period of time if talks stall.” — Mike Baker, quoting President Trump ([11:54])
• On Zelensky’s challenge:
  “This is one of the most difficult moments in our history. The pressure on Ukraine is one of the hardest.” — Zelensky ([13:10])
• On the peace plan’s impact:
  “Putin would get a pony.” — Mike Baker ([16:33])

Timeline of Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |-------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:35 | Host introduction and episode headlines | | 00:47–07:04 | Secret U.S. wargame on Venezuela and implications | | 11:42 | Trump’s Thanksgiving peace plan for Ukraine: context, details, and reactions | | 13:10 | Zelensky’s response, quote, and diplomatic outreach to Europe | | 14:30 | European allies' reaction and diplomatic moves | | 16:30 | Russian response and analysis of plan favorability | | 17:18 | Baker’s summary and critique of U.S./Europe position |

Tone & Style

• Candid, slightly wry, and deeply informed: Baker mixes policy expertise (as a former CIA operations officer) with dry humor and skepticism, especially toward official U.S. narratives and “tough talk.”
• Direct quotes and third-party attributions pepper the breakdown, with comparisons across present and historical events.
• Emphasis on nuanced risks: Baker repeatedly warns listeners not to accept simplistic official narratives.

Summary for New Listeners

This PDB Afternoon Bulletin provides a sobering perspective on two geopolitical flashpoints. Through classified wargame leaks and behind-the-scenes diplomacy, Mike Baker critiques U.S. optimism about regime change in Venezuela and fast-track peace deals in Ukraine—reminding listeners that geopolitical outcomes are rarely neat or favorable, and too often ignore the lessons of history.