PDB Afternoon Bulletin | November 21st, 2025: Secret US Wargame Models Maduro’s Collapse & Trump Threatens Ukraine With Thanksgiving Peace Deadline

Summary

The President's Daily Brief (PDB): Afternoon Bulletin

Episode: November 21st, 2025
Host: Mike Baker (The First TV)
Duration: ~18 min (excluding ads)
Main Topics:

• Secret U.S. Wargame Models Possibility of Maduro’s Collapse in Venezuela
• Trump’s Thanksgiving Peace Deadline for Ukraine

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Episode Overview

Mike Baker delivers a focused analysis of two major international stories: a little-understood U.S. wargame simulating the aftermath of Venezuelan regime change, and escalating White House pressure on Ukraine to accept a controversial 28-point peace plan with a Thanksgiving deadline. The bulletin contextualizes these stories with historical comparisons, insider details, and candid assessment of the stakes for U.S. foreign policy.

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Secret US Wargame: The Fallout of Toppling Maduro

Segment Start: [00:35]

Key Points & Insights

• US Military Buildup & Pressure on Venezuela: The U.S. is ramping up diplomatic and military pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s regime, including possible terrorist designations and military deployments in the Caribbean.
• Wargame Revelations: A recently surfaced New York Times report details a classified U.S. wargame during President Trump’s first term, modeling what would happen if Maduro was pushed from power.
  • Outcome: Not a restoring of democracy, but “chaos, prolonged, grinding, unpredictable chaos” ([02:11]).
  • Scenarios Considered: Military coup, popular uprising, or negotiated exit. All resulted in Venezuela fracturing—territory carved by cartels, Colombian guerrillas intervening, and segments of Venezuelan military going rogue.
  • Economic Collapse: Oil fields (national economic core) become contested; central government unable to reassert control.
• Historical Context & Lessons: Baker draws parallels to chaotic regime changes in Libya, Iraq, Chile, Nicaragua, South Vietnam, Iran, and Guatemala—emphasizing, “regime change is almost never pretty” ([00:47]).
  • Quote: “It's worth pausing there, because that's not the picture that US politicians usually paint when they talk about Venezuela.”
• Foreign Players: The wargame included scenarios involving Russia, China, and Iran—each with significant interests in Venezuela (arms, intelligence, loans, infrastructure)—all poised to exploit the vacuum.
  • “If Venezuela collapses, you don't just get Venezuela. You get a host of other interested players” ([05:13]).
• Maduro’s Defensive Posturing: The regime threatens asymmetric warfare, mobilizing “people’s armies” to defend against external pressure.
• Policy Takeaway: The U.S. may be pushing for a regime outcome it simultaneously knows could generate regional chaos and foreign intervention.
  • “What the wargame suggests is that Washington shouldn't assume a post Maduro Venezuela looks anything like a stable state. It may look more like a vacuum...” ([04:03]).
  • “All of this lands at a moment when the Trump administration is weighing options that could push the crisis toward a breaking point. And it raises a pretty important question: Is the U.S. actually prepared for the fallout that it's already predicted?” ([06:00–06:25]).

Notable Quotes

• Mike Baker:

  “The people who ran it weren’t guessing. They were using the best intelligence available at the time… What they saw wasn’t a victory parade.” ([07:04])

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Trump’s Peace Plan: Thanksgiving Deadline for Ukraine

Segment Start: [11:42]

Key Points & Insights

• Deadline & Ultimatum: President Trump warns Kyiv to accept a new 28-point peace plan by Thanksgiving, “or else.” Despite public framing as a “goal, not an ultimatum,” the threat includes potentially cutting intelligence and military aid.
  • “The president publicly reinforced that timeline on Friday, calling it appropriate and warning that Ukraine could, quote, lose in a short period of time if talks stall.” ([11:52])
  • “Multiple anonymous sources told Reuters Friday that the Trump administration is threatening to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine if leaders in Kyiv don't get on board.” ([12:40])
• Peace Plan Details (as leaked):
  • Ukraine would cede all of Donbass (including areas still under Ukrainian control).
  • Crimea ceded to Russia.
  • The front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions would be frozen, forming a demilitarized zone.
  • Ukraine would be barred from joining NATO and have an army cap of 600,000.
  • US-provided “security guarantees” are vague.
  • NATO would not expand further, nor station troops in Ukraine.
  • Sanctions on Russia would be gradually lifted; Russia could rejoin the G8 and global economy.
• Zelensky’s Dilemma: Zelensky, under intense pressure, tries to balance diplomatic tact with resolve, emphasizing “dignity” and the risk of losing U.S. support.
  • Quote: “This is one of the most difficult moments in our history. The pressure on Ukraine is one of the hardest.” ([13:10], quoting Zelensky)
  • He signals openness to “constructive, honest and prompt work,” but does not endorse key plan aspects.
• European Outrage: Allies excluded from the process; European leaders see the plan as a capitulation to Putin and a danger to EU security.
  • EU Foreign Policy Chief Gaia Kallas: “This is a very dangerous moment for all.” ([14:55])
• Russian Response: Publicly cautious, privately supportive—since the plan largely mirrors their historic demands.
  • “You’d think Moscow would be fawning over the agreement… but so far publicly, the Kremlin is taking a cautious approach.” ([16:30])
  • Speculation that Russian and U.S. envoys played a behind-the-scenes role in crafting the framework.
• Host Commentary:
  • Baker lampoons the framework as “Putin would get a pony,” highlighting how the plan overwhelmingly favors Russia.
  • Quote: “They fear the concessions will embolden Russia, fracture the Ukrainian government and leave [Europe] holding the security burden for a weakened Ukraine, all while Putin gets to claim victory, because, well, yeah, it would be a victory.” ([17:18])

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On US regime change history:
  “Regime change is almost never pretty. Let’s see, there’s Libya, Iraq, Chile, Nicaragua, South Vietnam… yeah, definitely South Vietnam, Iran, Guatemala. Yeah, we’ve got some practical case studies that we could learn from.” — Mike Baker ([00:47])
• On expectations vs. reality in Venezuela:
  “Even if Maduro falls, the US may not like what comes next.” — Mike Baker ([03:43])
• On Trump’s Ukraine deadline:
  “Ukraine could, quote, lose in a short period of time if talks stall.” — Mike Baker, quoting President Trump ([11:54])
• On Zelensky’s challenge:
  “This is one of the most difficult moments in our history. The pressure on Ukraine is one of the hardest.” — Zelensky ([13:10])
• On the peace plan’s impact:
  “Putin would get a pony.” — Mike Baker ([16:33])

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Timeline of Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |-------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:35 | Host introduction and episode headlines | | 00:47–07:04 | Secret U.S. wargame on Venezuela and implications | | 11:42 | Trump’s Thanksgiving peace plan for Ukraine: context, details, and reactions | | 13:10 | Zelensky’s response, quote, and diplomatic outreach to Europe | | 14:30 | European allies' reaction and diplomatic moves | | 16:30 | Russian response and analysis of plan favorability | | 17:18 | Baker’s summary and critique of U.S./Europe position |

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Tone & Style

• Candid, slightly wry, and deeply informed: Baker mixes policy expertise (as a former CIA operations officer) with dry humor and skepticism, especially toward official U.S. narratives and “tough talk.”
• Direct quotes and third-party attributions pepper the breakdown, with comparisons across present and historical events.
• Emphasis on nuanced risks: Baker repeatedly warns listeners not to accept simplistic official narratives.

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Summary for New Listeners

This PDB Afternoon Bulletin provides a sobering perspective on two geopolitical flashpoints. Through classified wargame leaks and behind-the-scenes diplomacy, Mike Baker critiques U.S. optimism about regime change in Venezuela and fast-track peace deals in Ukraine—reminding listeners that geopolitical outcomes are rarely neat or favorable, and too often ignore the lessons of history.

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Transcript

[Mike Baker]

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21St November welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Washington's pressure campaign on Venezuela comes with a previous warning label. A New York Times report reveals that U.S. officials once ran a secret war game on what would happen if Nicolas Maduro fell. And the outcome, it wasn't pretty. To be fair, regime change is almost never pretty. Let's see, there's Libya, Iraq, Chile, Nicaragua, South Vietnam. Yeah, definitely South Vietnam, Iran, Guatemala. Yeah, we've got some practical case studies that we could learn from. Now, it's not always apples to apples to be fair, but, well, there are lessons to be had. Later in the show, President Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on Ukraine to accept his new 28 point peace plan for ending the war, giving Kyiv until Thanksgiving to agree. We'll break down the framework. Europe's reaction and the impossible decision that Zelensky now faces. The White House is, to put it simply, suggesting that Ukraine make all the concessions and essentially capitulate to Putin just so we can say we've got a peace deal. Everybody, well, except for Putin, everybody wants peace and stability, of course, but that doesn't mean that you have to give in to Putin's demands, which haven't changed since he started this invasion. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. We've been watching the rising tensions, of course, between Washington and Caracas and the steady US Military buildup in the region. But it all raises a basic question, of course, what would actually happen if the US Toppled Nicolas Maduro? Well, there's a detail tucked into a recent New York Times piece that that deserves a lot more attention than it's getting because it actually seems to answer that question. During President Trump's first term, U.S. officials quietly ran a war game exploring what might happen if Maduro were pushed out of power in Venezuela. And the result wasn't some triumphant march toward democracy. It was chaos, prolonged, grinding, unpredictable chaos, according to people familiar with the exercise. Analysts walked through different scenarios. A military coup, a popular uprising, a negotiated exit. And every path appeared to lead to the same messy destination. The collapse of the Maduro regime didn't produce a clean handoff to opposition leaders or technocrats waiting in the wings. Instead, the country splintered. Cartels rushed to carve out territory. Colombian guerrilla groups moved in. Parts of the Venezuelan military broke off and started answering to whatever local boss could pay them. The oil fields, the heart of Venezuela's economy, became contested ground. And the central government, such as it was in this war game, couldn't stitch anything back together. It's worth pausing there, because that's not the picture that US politicians usually paint when they talk about Venezuela. The public script so far focuses on restoring democracy, helping the Venezuelan people, or ending narco terrorism. But this particular war game tells us something else. Even if Maduro falls, the US May not like what comes next. This is where the present moment becomes even more interesting. The US Is applying the most aggressive pressure on Venezuela in years. Military deployments in the Caribbean, talk of designating Maduro's circle as a terrorist organization, new intelligence leaks about cartel ties, and diplomatic messages that sound a lot like ultimatums. Meanwhile, Maduro's government is warning that he'll employ his militias, what they're calling people's armies. Asymmetric warfare, the language of a regime that is preparing for a siege. And in the middle of all that, well, the Times reminds us we've already gamed out what happens if the whole thing collapses. What the war game suggests is that Washington shouldn't assume a post Maduro Venezuela looks anything like a stable state. It may look more like a vacuum, one that criminal groups and foreign actors and local warlords would be rushing to fill. That's another point that the Times hints at. The war game wasn't just about internal Venezuelan dynamics. It included Russia, China, Iran, players with interests in Caracas who wouldn't sit quietly by if the US Reshaped the map. Moscow has, of course, sold weapons to the regime and values the relationship with a country. And in America's backyard, Tehran has backed Maduro's intelligence services. And Beijing, well, they've got billions tied up in loans and infrastructure. The message from the old war game was simple. If Venezuela collapses, you don't just get Venezuela. You get a host of other interested players. All of this lands at a moment when the Trump administration is weighing options that could push the crisis toward a breaking point. And it raises a pretty important question. Is the U.S. actually prepared for the fallout that it's already predicted? So when you hear big statements about tough action or promises that a new government in Caracas would immediately stabilize. Keep that war game in the back of your mind. The people who ran it weren't guessing. They were using the best intelligence available at the time. And this was President Trump's first term. And what they saw wasn't a victory parade. All right, coming up next, we will take you inside President Trump's 28 point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine and the White House's aggressive diplomatic push to get Kyiv on board by Thanksgiving. Oh, look, turkey's done. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with big news from our friends over at the Birch Gold Group. It's now that one time of year that Birch Gold Group gives away free gold with every qualifying purchase. That's right for Black Friday. 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I want to provide an update on the highly controversial US Peace plan being promoted by the White House to end the war in Ukraine as pressure mounts on Ukrainian President Zelensky to accept the Trump administration's tentative framework. Despite the protests of European allies and the deep skepticism of Kyiv on Thursday, President Trump privately urged Ukraine to accept the outline of a new 28 point peace framework by Thanksgiving, according to US officials who spoke with multiple outlets. The president publicly reinforced that timeline on Friday, calling it appropriate and warning that Ukraine could, quote, lose in a short period of time if talks stall. If this sounds like a reversal from the very recent tough talk coming out of the White House regarding the new sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, well, that's because it is. The diplomatic clock is now ticking for Kiev and the stakes, frankly, couldn't be higher. As we discussed on yesterday's pdb, the US Drafted plan would require Ukraine to make sweeping concessions, concessions that track closely with the Kremlin's long standing demands. Now, I want to stress that behind the scenes, US Officials confirmed to NBC News that the Thanksgiving target is more of a goal than an ultimatum. But the message was unmistakable. The Trump administration wants Keev to sign off on the framework quickly, before winter sets in on the battlefields and the consequences for pushing back could be crippling for Ukraine, multiple anonymous sources told Reuters Friday that the Trump administration is threatening to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine if leaders in Kyiv don't get on board. Trump's message landed just hours after Zelensky delivered one of his starkest addresses of the war, telling Ukrainians they were facing a choice between their, quote, dignity and the risk of losing a key partner. Zelensky said, quote, this is one of the most difficult moments in our history. The pressure on Ukraine is one of the hardest. He urged Ukrainians to stay united ahead of what he said will be, quote, a very difficult, eventful week. Publicly, Zelensky is attempting to walk a very fine diplomatic line, likely in an attempt to avoid offending President Trump. After receiving a draft of the proposal on Thursday and meeting with US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll in Kiev, Zelensky said, quote, we are ready for constructive, honest and prompt work. On Friday, he added in a post on X that he had spoken for nearly an hour with Vice President J.D. vance and Driscoll about the framework, saying Ukraine has always respected Trump's desire to put an end to the bloodshed. It was a delicate message that signaled Kyiv is not rejecting the US plan outright, but is not on board with key aspects of the proposal. As the news broke, Zelensky also held an emergency call with the leaders of Germany and Britain and France. As we discussed yesterday, European allies were not consulted on the proposal and have not been shy about voicing their grave concerns. Fearing President Trump is playing directly into the Kremlin's hands, EU foreign policy chief Gaia Kalis warned Friday that, quote, this is a very dangerous moment for all. During the call, Zelensky reportedly assured his European allies that while he valued Trump's efforts, he would work to ensure a dignified peace that takes into account Kyiv's principled stances. The flurry of remarks on Friday come as the finer details of the plan began leaking to the Press. Under the 28 point plan, Kyiv would be required to give up the entire Donbass region, including areas still under Ukrainian control. They would also need to cede Crimea to Russia. And meanwhile, the framework would freeze the front line in the southeastern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and and create a demilitarized zone between the current front line and the border of Donetsk. Furthermore, Ukraine would be barred from ever joining the NATO alliance and would be required to cap their army size at 600,000 troops. The US supposedly would provide security guarantees to Ukraine, though details remain very vague or undefined, and Ukraine, Europe and Russia would then enter into a non aggression agreement. As part of this proposal, Trump also wants NATO to agree to not expand their boundaries any further or station troops in Ukraine. Finally, Reuters reports that sanctions would be slowly lifted off of Russia in a phased approach, and Russia would be invited to rejoin the G8 and be reintegrated into the global economy, and the US would then enter into a sweeping economic agreement with Moscow and Putin would get a pony. Now, you'd think Moscow would be fawning over the agreement, and they probably are privately, but so far publicly, the Kremlin is taking a cautious approach. A Kremlin spokesman said they have not received any framework and no substantive discussions have been had, despite reports that Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev played a role in crafting the plan. Or I bet he did with US Special envoy Steve Witkoff. Still, the Kremlin taunted Kyiv, encouraging Zelenskyy to negotiate before it's too late, and Putin later suggested that he favors the framework. Of course he does. It basically matches his long standing demands. To state the obvious, Europe is in a state of alarm over the proposal and the speed at which the White House is pushing it. They fear the concessions will embolden Russia, fracture the Ukrainian government and leave them holding the security burden for a weakened Ukraine, all while Putin gets to claim victory because, well, yeah, it would be a victory. And that, my friends, is the BDB Afternoon bulletin for Friday 21st November. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and of course, to listen to the show ad free. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com and don't forget, it's Friday. Of course you knew that. Which means another episode of our extended weekend show, the PDP Situation Report hits the airwaves this evening at 10pm on the first TV. Excellent guests, insightful conversations. Really, the only thing missing would be a house band and I suppose, a jolly sidekick announcer. You can also catch it on our YouTube channel. That's @ President's Daily Brief and wherever you get your podcast stuff. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back over the weekend with the PDP Situation Report. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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