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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | November 25th, 2025: China’s Taiwan Invasion Rehearsal Caught On Satellite & U.S.-Russia Face-To-Face Talks
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We're starting with new reporting that suggests China is possibly moving beyond theoretical planning when it comes to Taiwan. Satellite imagery has captured what analysts believe is the clearest evidence yet that Beijing is rehearsing the early stages of a potential invasion. Now, these are not predictions or leaked rumors. The report is based on actual movements at sea caught on satellite and showing China using a mix of military and commercial ships to practice the kind of amphibious landings that it would need in order to take the island. So here's what we've learned. According to new analysis from Reuters, a dozen Chinese vessels, including large roll on, roll off cargo ferries, were recently spotted off the coast of Guangdong Province. Now, these aren't normal shipping routes. Instead, the ships moved in a deliberate formation toward a beach near a town called Jishang. That location matters because it's one of the Chinese military's known training sites for amphibious landings. Satellite photos show several of them lowering ramps directly onto the shoreline, offloading vehicles and equipment. Previous satellite imagery shows similar drills in the same area throughout the year. Now, one key development. China appears to be integrating its civilian shipping fleet, the so called Shadow Navy, into military exercises. These civilian ferries and cargo carriers can move massive amounts of hardware. They're not glamorous, but they're essential. They're the workhorses that turn strategy into an actual operation. And here's why that matters. For years, military planners have pointed to China's lift capacity and as the biggest limitation in a Taiwan invasion. In other words, the Chinese military simply doesn't have enough purpose built amphibious landing ships to transport the tens of thousands of troops and mountains of equipment needed to take and hold an island the size of Taiwan. That's why, up until now, most serious analysts have said China is still years away from being able to pull off such an operation. But these latest drills suggest Beijing is trying to close the gap. China's civilian shipping companies operate hundreds of large ferries and roll on, roll off vessels that can carry tanks and armored personnel carriers, fuel trucks, and logistics convoys. By folding those ships into military exercises, China is effectively turning the commercial maritime sector into an auxiliary invasion force. It's, well, relatively speaking, classic Chinese strategy. Blur the lines between civilian and military capabilities, build dual use infrastructure that looks harmless until the moment that it's not, and maintain just enough opacity that outsiders can't be certain what's coming next. Now, it's worth noting these exercises don't prove that an invasion is imminent. They don't establish a timeline. And there are still enormous hurdles that Beijing would have to overcome. Sea control, air supremacy, weather windows, and the basic challenge of moving hundreds of thousands of troops across 100 miles of open water, likely under fire. Still, this is a meaningful shift. Analysts quoted in the report put it plainly. China is moving from capability development into operational planning. That's a significant distinction. You don't practice offloading vehicles onto a beach in formation unless you're preparing for scenarios where you might actually need to do it. So what does this mean for US Policymakers? Well, first, this should sharpen the Pentagon's focus on maritime surveillance, specifically the movements of Chinese civilian ferries along the Taiwan Strait. These ships may become the early warning indicators of something larger. Second, this will factor into U.S. deterrence planning. If China is building the practical logistics foundation for an invasion, then American strategy will shift toward raising the costs before those plans ever reach execution. Third, expect discussions with allies in Japan and Australia and the Philippines to intensify. They're watching the same satellite images, and they have as much at stake in keeping the region stable as the U.S. and finally, here's what to watch going forward. Increased frequency of these drills, more civilian ships participating, and any signs of integration with with Chinese air and missile units. If those elements all start showing up together, that's when concerns move from interesting development into potential warning sign. For now, the message is simple. China is rehearsing. All right, coming up next, U.S. and Russian officials meet in Abu Dhabi for a fresh round of diplomacy focused on a potential Ukraine peace agreement. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. 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Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin. The US has entered a new phase of shuttle diplomacy, sending Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to Abu Dhabi to meet Russian officials just hours after Washington and Kyiv hammered out a revised 19 point peace plan. During discussions in Geneva, American officials confirmed the meeting, describing it as the latest sign of Washington's desire to move swiftly. What began as an effort to call Kyiv after Axios published Trump's original 28 point proposal last week has turned into a kind of diplomatic relay race. That original 28 point plan, of course, heavily favored the Kremlin. After the recent Geneva sessions in which US and Ukrainian negotiators rewrote that 28 point document Point by point, Driscoll's sudden appearance in the UAE caught more than a few players off guard, especially since Ukraine and Russian intelligence chiefs were already scheduled to meet there on another matter. Instead of parallel tracks, the US Arrival put everyone into the same cramped diplomatic dance. So that sounds comfortable. With the Ukrainian delegation, headed by the country's military intelligence chief, now drawn into discussions with both the American and Russian teams, Driscoll touched down yesterday in Abu Dhabi and has been in talks with Russian officials throughout today. According to his spokesman, Tolbert told Axios, secretary Driscoll and team have been in discussions with the Russian delegation to achieve a lasting peace for Ukraine. The talks are going well and we remain optimistic, end quote. For now. It's still unclear exactly who is sitting across from the Americans on the Russian side. As we've been tracking, the Geneva revisions left Washington and Kiev more aligned on what both call a, quote, updated and refined peace framework. But while a US Official insists that the Ukrainians, quote, have agreed to the peace deal, Kiev has avoided endorsing it in those terms. Even so, the Ukrainian tone is shifting. Zelensky's national security adviser, Rustam Umarov, said the two sides had, quote, reached a common understanding on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva and noted that the US Strengthened a draft security guarantee that accompanies the plan. Still, I want to emphasize that the biggest hurdle, which is territorial concessions, well, that remains untouched. That issue is being held back for a direct leader level discussion between Trump and Zelensky, and it won't be an easy sell for Zelensky. Ukrainians back home remain deeply wary of any deal that even hints at trading land for peace, particularly as Russian drones and missiles continue pounding cities across Ukraine. As for Russia, the Kremlin is signaling its own limits. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that if the revised document drifts from what Russian President Putin believes he agreed to with Trump during their August meeting in Alaska, Moscow will not accept it. Putin hasn't strayed from his maximalist demands for most of the war. His it appeared he was close to getting those demands with that original 28 point peace plan. Now that the document has been revised and reportedly is more in line with Ukraine and the EU and NATO's concerns now, it's likely that Putin will be a hard sell. Zelensky is expected to visit the US in the coming days, and Umarov said Kyiv hopes to arrange that trip before the end of the month in order to finalize the 19 point deal with President Trump. But still, no date has been set, and Ukrainian officials close to Zelensky admit that producing a final document will be difficult, especially as Russia's relentless aerial barrages leave many skeptical that Putin has any serious intentions regarding peace negotiations. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Tuesday 25th November. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, just reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and to listen to the show ad free. Well, you can do that. Just become a Premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message from our pals over at Birch Gold Group. Look, it's that time of year again and you say, what time of year is that? I'll tell you. It's the one time of year that Birch Gold Group gives away free gold with every qualifying purchase. That's right for Black Friday, when you convert an existing 401k or an IRA into a tax sheltered IRA in gold, birch Gold will send free gold to your home for every $20,000 purchased. How about that? Look, gold started this year around what, $2,600 an ounce and by October it was over $4,000 an ounce. And you say, well, why is that? 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