The President’s Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin | November 25, 2025

Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Main Themes:

1. China’s Taiwan Invasion Rehearsal Caught on Satellite
2. U.S.-Russia Face-To-Face Talks on Ukraine Peace Deal

Episode Overview

In this episode, Mike Baker delivers an incisive update on two urgent global developments: compelling new satellite evidence of Chinese military drills simulating an invasion of Taiwan, and a surge in shuttle diplomacy efforts as U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian officials converge in Abu Dhabi to discuss a revamped peace proposal for Ukraine. The episode is rich with intelligence analysis and gritty diplomatic insights, focusing on why these stories matter to U.S. policymakers and global stability.

1. China’s Taiwan Invasion Rehearsal on Satellite ([00:30] – [09:40])

Summary

• Satellite Revelations:
  Baker begins with new satellite imagery showing Chinese military amphibious landing exercises near Taiwan—using civilian ferries as troop and equipment transports.
• Key Findings and Analysis:
  • At least a dozen vessels (including roll-on/roll-off cargo ferries) spotted off Guangdong Province moving deliberately toward a known military beach training ground near Jishang.
  • Civilian shipping fleet—China’s “Shadow Navy”—actively included in military drills, expanding China’s logistical capabilities for a large-scale invasion.
  • Integration of civilian ferries is a “classic Chinese strategy” to blur lines between civilian and military infrastructure, increasing operational opacity.
  • Despite impressive drills, Baker underscores high hurdles: sea control, air supremacy, weather, and the immense technical challenge of moving hundreds of thousands of troops across the Taiwan Strait under potential fire.
  • These exercises do not indicate an imminent invasion but represent a “meaningful shift” from mere capability-building to operational planning.

Key Discussion Points

• China’s Logistics Gap is Closing:
  “China appears to be integrating its civilian shipping fleet, the so-called Shadow Navy, into military exercises. These civilian ferries and cargo carriers can move massive amounts of hardware… They're the workhorses that turn strategy into an actual operation.” – Mike Baker [02:35]
• Why This Matters:
  “For years, military planners have pointed to China’s lift capacity as the biggest limitation in a Taiwan invasion... But these latest drills suggest Beijing is trying to close the gap.” – Mike Baker [03:25]
• Strategic Implications:
  • Enhanced U.S. surveillance of civilian shipping routes.
  • U.S. deterrence planning may shift to focus on raising costs for China before action is taken.
  • Heightened coordination and concern among U.S. allies (Japan, Australia, Philippines).

Notable Quotes

• “You don’t practice offloading vehicles onto a beach in formation unless you’re preparing for scenarios where you might actually need to do it.” – Mike Baker [05:30]
• “It’s classic Chinese strategy: blur the lines between civilian and military capabilities, build dual-use infrastructure that looks harmless—until the moment it’s not.” – Mike Baker [05:50]
• “If those elements all start showing up together, that's when concerns move from interesting development into potential warning sign. For now, the message is simple. China is rehearsing.” – Mike Baker [08:15]

2. U.S.-Russia Face-to-Face Talks on Ukraine ([10:15] – [14:40])

Summary

• Diplomatic Developments:
  The U.S. moves swiftly to shuttle diplomacy, sending Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to Abu Dhabi for direct talks with Russian officials—shortly after the U.S. and Ukraine revised a peace plan in Geneva.
• Unique Meeting Dynamics:
  • The U.S. appearance in Abu Dhabi compresses what were previously parallel European diplomatic tracks into a tense, multi-party negotiation involving the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia.
  • The Ukrainian delegation, led by the country’s military intelligence chief, becomes entwined in trilateral talks on the spot.
• Geneva Peace Framework:
  • U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators rewrite Trump’s original 28-point proposal (widely seen as Kremlin-friendly) down to a revised 19-point agreement, more attuned to Ukrainian and NATO/EU concerns.
• Sticking Points Remain:
  • Core issues—especially territorial concessions—have been deferred for leader-level discussions between President Trump and President Zelensky.
  • Kremlin signals resistance, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warning against any deviation from what President Putin expects.

Key Discussion Points

• Uncertain Endgame:
  “While a U.S. official insists the Ukrainians ‘have agreed to the peace deal’, Kiev has avoided endorsing it in those terms... The biggest hurdle, which is territorial concessions, well, that remains untouched.” – Mike Baker [12:30]
• Kremlin’s Position:
  “Lavrov warned that if the revised document drifts from what Putin believes he agreed to with Trump... Moscow will not accept it.” – Mike Baker [13:40]
• Domestic Pressure in Ukraine:
  “Ukrainians back home remain deeply wary of any deal that even hints at trading land for peace, particularly as Russian drones and missiles continue pounding cities across Ukraine.” – Mike Baker [13:05]
• US-Ukrainian Sync:
  “The Geneva revisions left Washington and Kyiv more aligned on what both call a, quote, ‘updated and refined peace framework.’” – Mike Baker [11:45]
• Next Steps:
  Zelensky may visit the U.S. soon to finalize the 19-point plan, but skepticism abounds due to Russia’s ongoing military assaults and questions about Putin’s intentions.

Notable Quotes

• “The US’s arrival put everyone into the same cramped diplomatic dance. So that sounds comfortable.” – Mike Baker, wry tone [10:50]
• “Producing a final document will be difficult, especially as Russia's relentless aerial barrages leave many skeptical that Putin has any serious intentions regarding peace negotiations.” – Mike Baker [14:15]

Key Timestamps & Segments

• [00:30] – [09:40]: China’s Taiwan Invasion Rehearsal
  • Satellite imagery and analysis
  • Civilian ferry integration (“Shadow Navy” concept)
  • Implications for U.S. policy and regional stability
• [10:15] – [14:40]: U.S.-Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Abu Dhabi
  • Breakdown of diplomatic sequence and shifting peace proposals
  • Analysis of unresolved issues and risks ahead

Memorable Moments & Tone

• Baker’s signature analytic voice shines through, blending intelligence reporting with frank, sometimes wry asides:
  “You don’t practice offloading vehicles onto a beach in formation unless you’re preparing for scenarios where you might actually need to do it.” [05:30]
• Throughout, he underscores the dynamic, uncertain nature of both crises and what listeners should watch for next.

Bottom Line

Mike Baker’s November 25th afternoon briefing delivers a sharp, security-focused update on mounting China-Taiwan tensions and the precarious choreography of U.S.-Russia-Ukraine diplomacy. His message is clear:

• Watch China’s logistical exercises closely—they’re not just for show.
• Don’t expect a Ukraine peace deal to come easy, especially with land on the line and missiles still flying.

For future developments, track:

• Intensification and integration of Chinese amphibious drills
• U.S. and allied surveillance of commercial shipping
• Next diplomatic moves after Abu Dhabi and potential leader-level negotiations on Ukraine

Host Sign-off:
“And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Tuesday 25th November. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, just reach out to me…” – Mike Baker [14:40]