PDB Afternoon Bulletin | November 7th, 2025

Iran’s Brazen Plot to Assassinate Israel’s Top Diplomat in Mexico & Putin Turns to Africa for Fresh Recruits

Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Podcast: The President’s Daily Brief (The First TV)
Date: November 7, 2025
Runtime: ~15 minutes of core content

Overview

In this episode, Mike Baker delivers a concise, intelligence-style briefing on two major geopolitical developments:

1. The foiled Iranian plot to assassinate Israel’s ambassador in Mexico, illustrating the global reach of Iran’s covert operations.
2. Russia’s recruitment of African soldiers to fight in Ukraine, reflecting the Kremlin’s mounting manpower problems amidst staggering casualties in its protracted war.

Baker dissects these stories, highlighting implications for international security and the rules-based order, and offers insight grounded in his experience as a CIA operations officer.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Iran’s Foiled Assassination Plot in Mexico

[00:47 – 06:50]

• Breaking News:

  • U.S. and Israeli officials confirm the disruption of an Iranian plot to assassinate Israel’s ambassador to Mexico.
  • The operation, attributed to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, Unit 11,000 (also behind plots in Australia and Europe), was uncovered in late 2024 and foiled by mid-2025, thanks to a joint effort by Mexican security and U.S. intelligence.

• Methods and Reach:

  • Iranian operatives spent years cultivating agents across Latin America, using Iran’s embassy in Venezuela as an operational hub.
  • After preparing the groundwork, local recruits took control, with Quds Force handlers returning to Tehran—granting Iran plausible deniability.

• Official Reactions and Global Context:

  • U.S. intelligence confirms the threat is neutralized but withholds details on operational methods for security reasons.
  • Israel’s Foreign Ministry praises Mexico’s agencies for disrupting a “terrorist network directed by Iran.”
  • The plot exemplifies Iran’s global playbook: targeting adversaries abroad via proxies and intermediaries, insulating the regime from direct consequence.

• Wider Pattern of Iranian Activities:

  • Iran’s global assassination campaign, targeting diplomats, journalists, and dissidents, has affected numerous countries:
    • Australia: Severed diplomatic ties with Iran after uncovering Tehran’s payments to local criminals for antisemitic attacks (first diplomat expelled since WWII).
    • U.S., UK, Others: Joint denunciations of Iran’s campaign to kill and kidnap targets abroad.
    • Britain: Targeted “prominent Jewish individuals” 15+ times since 2022; MI5 foiled over 20 Iran-linked plots in 2024 alone.
    • U.S.: Multiple disrupted plots since 2020, including attempts against defectors and former Trump administration officials.

• Quote (U.S. Official, via Axios) [05:12]:

  “This is just the latest in a long history of assassination attempts by Iran around the world targeting diplomats and journalists, dissidents, and anyone who disagrees with them—something that should deeply concern every country where there’s an Iranian presence.”

• Iran’s Denial:

  • Iran’s UN mission declined comment, previously labeling such allegations as “politically motivated propaganda.”

• Baker’s Take [06:00]:

  “As has been documented over the years, the Iranian regime regularly makes a mockery of the international rules-based order—whether it’s their nuclear enrichment program, funding of terrorist proxies throughout the Middle East, or their campaign of transnational repression.”

2. Russia’s Recruitment of African (and Other Foreign) Soldiers for Ukraine

[10:50 – 15:12]

• Background:

  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has cost over 1.1 million casualties.
  • Facing severe manpower shortages, the Kremlin is recruiting foreigners, especially from impoverished regions.

• African Recruitment Details:

  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister: Over 1,400 citizens from 36 African countries are fighting for Russia, often deceived with fake job promises.
  • Recruits are lured by “high salaries” for non-combat work, sign contracts in Russian, undergo minimal training, and are then sent to high-casualty “meat assaults” in the Donbass.
  • Contracts described as “equivalent to a death sentence.”
  • Kenyan and South African governments have begun investigating after receiving distress calls from citizens trapped in Russia.

• Quote (Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, via X) [12:28]:

  “Foreign citizens in the Russian army have a sad fate. Most of them are immediately sent to the so-called meat assaults, where they are quickly killed.”

• Wider Foreign Recruitment Tactics:

  • Russia also targets Asia and the Middle East.
  • Last year: reports of Indian men lured to fight; as many as 15,000 Nepalese also reportedly enlisted.
  • Formal military partnerships, i.e. with North Korea: 15,000 North Korean troops sent, with British MoD estimating ~6,000 KIA or WIA.

• Strategic Purpose:

  • Outsourcing the bloodiest fighting to foreigners allows Russia to:
    • Mitigate its domestic casualty numbers.
    • Maintain stricter domestic wartime messaging.
    • Continue its offensive while absorbing losses externally.

• Baker’s Take [14:33]:

  “If you’re a foreign fighter, the Kremlin will happily send you to the bloodiest areas of the front lines. For the Putin regime, the strategic benefit is clear—by outsourcing the dirtiest fighting to recruits with limited rights, the Kremlin can partially mitigate its domestic casualty count and keep its wartime messaging at home tighter, all while, of course, grinding forward on the offensive.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [05:12] U.S. Official Attribution (on Iran):

  “This is just the latest in a long history of assassination attempts by Iran around the world….”

• [06:00] Mike Baker, on Iran’s disregard for the rules-based order:

  “The Iranian regime regularly makes a mockery of the international rules-based order….”

• [12:28] Ukrainian Foreign Minister (on African recruits in Russia):

  “Foreign citizens in the Russian army have a sad fate. Most of them are immediately sent to the so-called meat assaults where they are quickly killed.”

• [14:33] Mike Baker (on Russia’s use of foreign fighters):

  “If you’re a foreign fighter, the Kremlin will happily send you to the bloodiest areas of the front lines….”

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------| | 00:47 | Iranian plot against Israel’s ambassador in Mexico | | 06:50 | Broader pattern of Iran’s global assassination ops | | 10:50 | Russian recruitment of African and foreign fighters | | 12:28 | Ukrainian Foreign Minister’s statement | | 14:33 | Analysis on Kremlin’s strategic use of foreigners |

Tone & Style

Mike Baker’s delivery is sharp, knowledgeable, and direct—mixing intelligence brief precision with wry commentary. He navigates sensitive geopolitical matters with a sense of urgency and seasoned skepticism, especially toward official denials from adversarial regimes.

For Listeners

This episode succinctly unpacks why these covert operations and evolving tactics matter—not just in Moscow, Tehran, or Kyiv, but for global security and the international rules-based order. Baker offers credible insight for listeners who are tracking not only the headlines, but the stories behind them.

Contact:
Questions/comments: pdb@thefirsttv.com

Bonus:
Guest highlights for the weekend’s PDB Situation Report:

• Former UK Ambassador Edmund Fitton-Brown (on Gaza ceasefire)
• Military veteran & ex-CIA Adam Hardage (on AI disinformation)

Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.