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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 27th, 2025: U.S. Intelligence Split on Putin Peace & Israel’s Patience Wears Thin
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Mike Baker
Looking to diversify and protect your hard earned assets. Well, schedule a free consultation with the Birch Gold Group. They're the precious metals specialists. Just text PDB to the number 989898 and you'll receive a free no obligation information kit. And you'll learn how to convert an existing IRA or a 401k into a gold IRA. Again, text PDB to 989898. Foreign It's Monday, the 27th of October. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, we're hearing rumblings of a major split inside America's intelligence community. The CIA reportedly saw an opening for peace with Vladimir Putin, while the State Department's analysts called that a fantasy. Later in the show, news from Gaza, where Israeli patience is growing thin as Hamas continues efforts to recover more than a dozen bodies of hostages still inside the enclave. At the same time, Hamas is refusing to commit to disarm and is looking to establish or re establish their control over Gaza. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. The question of whether or not Vladimir Putin wants or has any interest in peace remains the key question in finding a pathway to peace in Ukraine. And apparently there's some disagreement now in Washington over Putin's mindset. According to new reporting from the Wall Street Journal, there has been a serious split between the CIA and the State Department's intelligence arm over Putin's interest in negotiating. The Journal reports that the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research, it's known as inr, is cast doubt earlier this year on the notion that the president of Russia was ready to talk peace. Analysts there argued that Putin's goals in Ukraine hadn't changed. He still wanted domination, not diplomacy. But the CIA, according to the same report, had a more optimistic read. Their analysts believed there might be an opening that Putin could be coaxed toward a settlement, particularly with direct engagement from President Trump. That divide reportedly showed up in the president's daily brief. No, not, not here on your favorite podcast, but the actual presidential intelligence summary that gets produced every morning for the president. That president's daily brief and the divide even surfaced in briefings leading up to the Trump Putin summit that took place in Anchorage this past August. The Journal notes that after that dissent, several of those State Department analysts were fired amid a so called reorganization. A department official said the move wasn't targeted and that the office remains capable of doing its job. Well, that's nice. But others inside Foggy Bottom that's the reference to State Department, of course, because of location, see it differently, describing it as the latest example of political pressure shaping the intelligence narrative. One former INR director told the paper that when analysts are pressured to align with policy goals, decision makers can end up with what he called a, quote, distorted view of reality, the kind of distortion that can lead to dangerous miscalculations. Well, he's not wrong. Now, this isn't the first time that the State Department's analysts have broken ranks. Back in 2002, INR was one of the few offices that dissented from the broader intelligence community's conclusion that Saddam Hussein was rebuilding a nuclear weapons program. And they, of course, at INR turned out to be right. That parallel isn't lost on Washington insiders or on veterans of the intelligence world who see this latest dispute as a warning that perhaps lessons from Iraq might be fading. At issue now is how the administration reads Putin's intentions. After the Anchorage talks failed to produce progress, Trump expressed personal frustration, saying Putin had, quote, let him down. Even so, the White House kept the door to negotiations open, announcing a new meeting between the two leaders in Budapest, one that's now on hold amid doubts that Moscow is negotiating in good faith. Here's a hint. They're not negotiating in good faith. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant hinted at that skepticism last week when he announced sanctions on Russia's major oil firms, Lukoil and Rosneft, saying they reflected Moscow's, quote, lack of serious commitment to peace. He added, now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire. That backdrop of cautious optimism from some quarters and deep skepticism from others makes the intelligence rift especially significant. Because if the President's advisers can't even agree on whether Putin wants peace, it raises a tougher question. How do you negotiate with someone that you can't read? And that brings us to the present moment, because while the intelligence community debates Putin's intentions, the Russian leader seems to be sending his own message. As we reported this morning on the pdb, Moscow announced what it called a successful test of its new nuclear powered Burevestnik cruise missile, a long range system designed to carry a nuclear warhead and in theory stay aloft, perhaps for days. When reporters asked President Trump about it aboard Air Force One, he called the launch, quote, an inappropriate step, adding, quote, he should, meaning Putin get the war ended. A war that should have taken a week is now soon in its fourth year. That's what he should be doing instead of testing missiles, end quote. So as the fighting grinds on. And Putin continues to tout new weapons. Washington's analysts remain divided on a fundamental question. Is the Russian president signaling strength or simply proving that peace was never on the table to begin with? Now, in the for what it's worth category, and listeners of the PDB already know this, I don't believe Putin has any interest in anything other than winning. And the question to ask then isn't, is Putin interested in peace? The question to ask is, what does Putin consider to be a winning position for now, based on Kremlin demands? That answer appears to be, at a minimum, all of the Donbas region, plus their existing hold, of course, on Crimea, and a variety of demands intended to ensure that Ukraine can't defend itself from future aggression. Coming up next, the grim search continues in Gaza. Hamas works to recover the bodies of more than a dozen hostages as Israel's frustration grows. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment to talk about your personal finances. Now, I suspect you've noticed that the cost of everything is, well, still too high, and many folks have been relying on credit cards to cover essentials. 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Mike Baker
Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin. I'd like to take stock of where things stand with President Trump's peace plan. Israel now says Hamas has failed to provide the locations of four of the 13 remaining hostages bodies in Gaza, a direct violation testing both the ceasefire and the patience of Washington. According to Israel's Khan, public broadcaster officials in Jerusalem have been urging Washington to pressure Hamas into resuming the handover of bodies as required under the 9th of October cease fire and hostage deal. But days have passed with no movement and frustration is mounting in both capitals. Last week in our coverage of Vice President JD Batts visit to the Jewish State IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyel Zamir underscored the sensitivity of the issue, reminding American officials that Israel has spent more than a decade trying to recover the remains of Hadar Goldin, a soldier killed in 2014 whose body is still held by Hamas. For Jerusalem, the message was Hamas word means little without results. But Hamas says he can't find the bodies. Washington and Jerusalem see that claim differently, calling the excuse a stalling tactic. Both countries believe Hamas knows exactly where the bodies are and is withholding information in a direct violation of the ceasefire terms in order to preserve what little leverage that the terror group has over the deal and the enclave. With that in mind, President Trump took to truce social, warning the terror group it would be held accountable if the truce collapses, saying he would be watching its actions, quote, very closely. And yesterday, Trump doubled down, posting, quote, hamas is going to have to start returning the bodies of the deceased hostages, including two Americans, quickly, or the other countries involved in this great peace will take action, most likely hinting at a resumption of military operations. That message appeared to land. Efforts to locate and recover remains have since expanded, with Red Cross and Egyptian teams now joining the search under Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's approval to assist Hamas. Even Hamas so called shadow unit which was tasked with guarding the hostages, was permitted to enter IDF controlled areas in Gaza to further assist. But skepticism still runs deep. The footage published by a Qatari news outlet showed shadow unit fighters and Red Cross personnel operating near Al Mawasi. That's close to Rafah territory, still outside of Israeli control. For many in Jerusalem, it was a scene that raised more doubt than hope. Before the truce, Hamas held the bodies of 28 hostages. Since then, the group returned 15 and released all 20 surviving captives from the 251 abducted during its 7 October 2023 terror attacks in Israel. That of course ignited this entire Gaza war. But now, as the handover stalls, so has Hamas willingness to further comply to the peace plan. As we've been tracking. In a statement to Reuters a week ago, a senior Hamas official said the group intends to maintain its security control in the Strip during what he called a, quote, transitional period, insisting that, quote, it cannot commit to disarm. That admittance, of course, raised red flags as it runs directly counter to the peace framework, which demands that Hamas release all hostages, disarm completely and hand governance of the enclave to a technocratic committee overseen by an international body. And this week came another act of defiance from Hamas senior figure within the organization, Khalil Al Hayyeh. Declared that the group's weapons are linked to the presence of the occupation, adding they would only be handed to the state once the occupation ends. Well, what occupation means, though, of course, remains deliberately vague. Whether Israel's presence in Gaza or the mere existence of the Jewish state itself is an ambiguity that officials in Jerusalem called deliberate. It appears to be another statement to counter the terror group's immediate release of the enclave. Meanwhile, Israeli defense officials briefed lawmakers that the International Stabilization Force set to assume control of Gaza post IDF withdrawal, will include troops from Indonesia, Azerbaijan and Pakistan. Indonesia and Azerbaijan have confirmed participation, though Pakistan's involvement had not been publicly disclosed until today. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon bulletin for Monday, 27 October. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com to listen to the show ad free. You can do that, and you can do it very simply. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com See, I told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker now. Be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.