PDB Afternoon Bulletin | September 18th, 2025: Ukraine Retakes Ground As Russian Offensive Stalls & South China Sea Collision

Summary

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The President's Daily Brief: Afternoon Bulletin

Episode Summary – September 18, 2025

Host: Mike Baker, former CIA Operations Officer
Produced by: The First TV

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Overview:

This episode delivers critical updates on two major international developments. First, Ukraine’s unexpectedly successful counterattacks as Russia’s offensive grinds to a halt after a summer of heavy fighting. Second, a dangerous maritime collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the contested South China Sea, underscoring rising tensions and global security risks. Mike Baker contextualizes each with clear analysis and how they matter to the U.S. and international community.

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1. Ukraine War Update: Russian Offensive Stalls, Ukraine Retakes Ground

[00:35 – 06:45]

• Shift on the Battlefield:
  The summer story of “Russia slowly grinding forward and Ukraine struggling to hold them back” has changed. In recent days, “Moscow’s summer offensive appears to have wound down,” and Ukrainian forces “are not only holding the line but even gaining back some ground.”

• Russian Claims vs. Reality:
  Russian officials, especially Chief of the General Staff Valerie Gerasimov, claim “major victories” and massive territorial gains. However, “independent assessments paint a very different picture. Western analysts, Ukrainian officials, and even some pro-Russian military bloggers say those claims are wildly inflated.”

  “Now, as it turns out—and I know this is hard to believe—but Valerie Gerasimov might have been a big fibber.” (Mike Baker, 02:08)

• The Reality on the Ground:

  • No major Ukrainian city has been captured by Russia this summer.
  • “The only place you could point to as a real success was Chasiv Yar, a small town in the east.”
  • Ukrainian forces have recently “regained several villages in the east, undoing Russian progress toward critical supply routes.” The gains are modest but strategically important as “they show Ukraine can still seize the initiative even after months of being on the defensive.”
  • Russian advances elsewhere “either stalled out or were pushed back.”

• Cost to Russia:

  • Over 200,000 Russian troops lost since the war began.
  • “Just this summer alone, tens of thousands were killed or wounded in the offensive.”
  • “Soldiers describe being thrown into what they call ‘meat assaults’—waves of men sent forward in frontal attacks until the survivors finally take a position.”
  • Some Russian units “have reportedly lost more than 90% of their manpower.”
  • “Russian commanders appear to be rationing tanks and armored vehicles, holding them back to avoid rapid destruction... Many troops rely on civilian vehicles bought with donations, only to see them destroyed within days.”

• Why Inflate Gains?

  • “First, to project strength abroad, especially toward Western governments debating continued military aid for Ukraine.”
  • “And second, to reassure a domestic public that’s weary of war, convincing them that sacrifices are paying off.”
  • “For President Putin, this matters enormously. He continues to believe that Russia is winning, and as long as he believes that, he has little incentive to enter serious peace talks.”

  “The Kremlin’s propaganda doesn’t just shape public opinion—it shapes the decisions being made at the very top.” (Mike Baker, 05:15)

• What’s Next:

  • “The Russian offensive has sputtered, Ukrainian troops have clawed back territory in the east, and Moscow’s narrative of victory looks thinner by the day.”
  • “The developments of the past few weeks are a reminder that the outcome is not inevitable.”

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2. South China Sea: Collision Raises Regional Stakes

[09:29 – 12:48]

• Incident Overview:

  • Location: Scarborough Shoal, a disputed reef claimed by both China and the Philippines.
  • China claims a Philippine vessel “deliberately rammed” one of its ships. The Philippines counters that “Chinese ships pummeled their fishing vessel with water cannons for nearly half an hour,” damaging the ship and injuring a crew member.

• Pattern of Behavior:

  “Beijing often accuses its rivals of the very behavior that it’s engaging in.” (Mike Baker, 10:02)

  • Filipino officials claim two Chinese ships hit their vessel so hard “glass windows shattered, water flooded into the captain’s cabin, and electrical systems short-circuited.”
  • A Chinese Navy warship broadcasted warnings of live fire exercises, “sending Filipino fishermen in the area scrambling in fear.”

• Context and Escalation:

  • Days before, China “designated part of Scarborough Shoal as a national nature reserve”—seen by Manila as a cover for further Chinese control. The Philippines filed a formal protest.
  • “This latest incident looks like Beijing enforcing that claim on the water.”

• International Reaction:

  • U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned the Chinese action as “yet another coercive move meant to enforce imagined territorial claims at the expense of neighbors.”
  • The U.K., Australia, and Canada voiced support for Manila. Ottawa “outright said that China was using environmental protection as a pretext for taking control of the shoal.”

• Strategic and Symbolic Significance:

  • “Scarborough Shoal has long been one of the most sensitive flashpoints in the South China Sea. It’s a rich fishing ground, sits in a vital shipping lane, and is symbolic of Beijing’s sweeping claim to nearly the entire sea.”
  • “Each one of these standoffs follows the same rhythm: Beijing takes a new step to assert control, Manila resists, and the world takes notice and does nothing.”
  • “The difference this time is that a Philippine ship was left damaged and a crew member injured, making the confrontation harder to brush off as routine harassment.”
  • “Each new clash adds yet another layer of risk and another chance for a miscalculation.”

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3. Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Russian Narratives:

  “One analyst compared Russia’s approach to cooking the books. You set vague goals, you push the line forward just a bit, and then declare the results as proof of victory.” (Mike Baker, 02:30)
  “Russia has even recycled old maps from earlier in the year to make it look like this summer’s campaign was more successful than it actually was.” (Mike Baker, 02:45)

• On the Cost of War:

  “Some units have reportedly lost more than 90% of their manpower before being declared combat ineffective.” (Mike Baker, 04:10)

• On the Stakes in the South China Sea:

  “The South China Sea is already one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world, a place where national pride, fishing rights, and global trade routes all collide.” (Mike Baker, 12:15)

• On World Response:

  “Each one has the same rhythm: Beijing takes a new step to assert control. Manila resists, and the world takes notice and does nothing.” (Mike Baker, 12:05)

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4. Important Timestamps

• Ukraine update—start: [00:35]
• Russian claims versus reality: [02:00]
• Cost to Russia—casualty estimates and ‘meat assaults’: [03:45]
• Kremlin propaganda analysis: [05:00]
• South China Sea collision—start: [09:29]
• Details of China-Philippines confrontation: [10:00]
• International response and broader analysis: [11:30]
• Summary of risks in the South China Sea: [12:15]

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5. Tone and Takeaways

Mike Baker’s coverage combines a skeptical, analytical tone with urgency, mixing pointed humor with grave warnings about propaganda, casualties, and the risks of escalation. The episode is brisk, direct, and focused on dispelling official narratives to present the nuanced, evolving realities behind the headlines.

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For deeper analysis or questions, listeners are encouraged to contact the show at [e-mail] or become premium members for an ad-free experience.

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Transcript

[Mike Baker]

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[Mike Baker]

18-9-18. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First up, Russia's offensive appears to have stalled and in some areas it's Keeves forces pushing forward, reclaiming lost ground. We'll have the latest from the front. And later in the show, another dangerous encounter in the South China Sea. Chinese and Philippine vessels collide near a disputed shoal with injuries and both sides, of course, trading blame. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. It's been a while since we've taken a look at the situation on the ground in Ukraine, and that's partly because through the summer, the story has been a familiar one. Russia pushing forward with slow, grinding offensives and Ukraine struggling to hold them back. But in recent days, the story has shifted. Moscow's summer offensive appears to have wound down and Ukraine is not only holding the line, but but even gaining back some ground. Now, you wouldn't know that if you listen to the Russian leadership. At the end of August, the chief of Russia's general staff, Valerie Urasimov, declared what he called, quote, major victories in both eastern and southern Ukraine. He claimed thousands of square kilometers of territory had been captured, along with scores of villages and towns. He even suggested his troops were on the verge of surrounding a key Ukrainian stronghold. Now, as it turns out, and I know this is hard to believe, but Valerie Rasimov might have been a big fibber. Independent assessments paint a very different picture. Western analysts, Ukrainian officials and even some pro Russian military bloggers say those claims are wildly inflated. The true gains are far smaller than the Kremlin admits. And whatever territory Russia has taken has come at an extraordinary cost in lives and equipment. One analyst compared Russia's approach to cooking the books. You set vague goals, you push the line forward just a bit and then declare the results as proof of victory. Russia has even recycled old maps from earlier in the year to make it look like this summer's campaign was more successful than it actually was. The reality is that Moscow didn't capture a single major Ukrainian city this summer. The only place he could point to as a real success was Chasiv Yar, a small town in the east. But even that victory came after months of bloody fighting that left much of the settlement in ruins. Everywhere else, their advances either stalled out or were pushed back. In fact, Ukrainian forces recently regained several villages in the east, undoing Russian progress toward critical supply routes. And while these gains aren't huge in size, they matter because they show Ukraine can still seize the initiative. Even after months of being on the defensive. The cost to Russia have been staggering. Independent estimates say that since the war began, Moscow has lost more than 200,000 troops, and just this summer alone, tens of thousands were killed or wounded. In the offensive, soldiers describe being thrown into what they call, quote, meat assaults, Waves of men sent forward in frontal attacks until the survivors finally take a position. Some units have reportedly lost more than 90% of their manpower before being declared combat ineffective. And it's not just manpower. Russian commanders appear to be rationing tanks and armored vehicles horizontally, holding them back to avoid rapid destruction at the front. Many troops rely on civilian vehicles bought with donations, only to see them destroyed within days. So why inflate the gains? Well, analysts say the goal is twofold. First, to project strength abroad, especially toward Western governments debating continued military aid for Ukraine. And second, to reassure a domestic public that's weary of war, convincing them that sacrifices are paying off. The truth on the ground may be far messier, but the official story is designed to make the war look like it's moving steadily in Russia's favor. For President Putin, this matters enormously. He continues to believe that Russia is winning, and as long as he believes that, he has little incentive to enter serious peace talks. The Kremlin's propaganda doesn't just shape public opinion. It shapes the decisions being made at the very top. For Ukraine, the task is to hold the line, exploit openings when possible, and. And show the world that Russia's war machine is not unstoppable. And for the moment, that's exactly what they're doing. The Russian offensive has sputtered, Ukrainian troops have clawed back territory in the east, and Moscow's narrative of victory looks thinner by the day. Now, the war is still brutal, of course, still costly and far from over. But the developments of the past few weeks are a reminder that the outcome is not inevitable. All right, coming up next, Chinese and Philippine ships collide near a disputed shoal, sparking a new round of diplomatic protests. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, this podcast is brought to you in part by Stash. Imagine investing without ever picking a single stock. With Stash, the experts handle the hard part for you. You see, Stash isn't just another investing app. It's a registered investment advisor that combines automated investing with with expert guidance so you don't have to worry about figuring it out on your own. Choose from personalized investments or let Stash's award winning smart portfolio do the work for you. With Stash, investing doesn't feel like gambling. It's simple, it's smart and stress free so your money can finally start working as hard as you do. Get access to world class financial advice with personalized guidance for just three dollars a month. 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[Mike Baker]

Massachusetts welcome back to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Turning to the disputed South China Sea, where yet another confrontation has broken out between China and the Philippines. This time the clash was near Scarborough Shoal, a disputed reef claimed by both countries. China's Coast Guard accused a Philippine ship of deliberately ramming one of its vessels, but Manila fired back with a different account, saying it was Chinese ships that pummeled their fishing vessel with water cannons for nearly half an hour, leaving it badly damaged and injuring a crew member. And it fits a familiar pattern. Beijing often accuses its rivals of the very behavior that it's engaging in. Philippine officials said two Chinese ships hit their vessel with such force that glass windows shattered, water flooded into the captain's cabin, and electrical systems short circuited. On top of that, a Chinese Navy warship broadcast a warning of so called live fire exercises, sending Filipino fishermen in the area scrambling in fear. And this isn't happening in a vacuum. Just days earlier, Beijing announced it was designating part of Scarborough Shoal as a national nature reserve, an environmental label that Manila dismissed as a cover for expanding Chinese control. The Philippines responded with a formal protest. This latest incident looks like Beijing enforcing that claim on the water. Scarborough Shoal has long been one of the most sensitive flashpoints in the South China Sea. It's a rich fishing ground, it sits in a vital shipping lane, and it's symbolic of Beijing's sweeping claim to nearly the entire sea. The Philippines had dispatched ships to the shoal this week to resupply its own fishing fleet with fuel and water and ice. Instead, they ran into Chinese Coast Guard vessels blocking the way. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned the Chinese action as, quote, yet another coercive move meant to enforce imagined territorial claims at the expense of neighbors. The United Kingdom, Australia and Canada voiced support for Manila as well, with Ottawa saying outright that China was using environmental protection as a pretext for taking control of the shoal. And that's the key here. This is just the latest in a long series of standoffs between China and the Philippines. Each one has the same rhythm. Beijing takes a new step to assert control. Manila resists, and the world takes notice and does nothing. The difference this time is that a Philippine ship was left damaged and a crew member injured, making the confrontation harder to brush off as routine harassment. The South China Sea is already one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world, a place where national pride, fishing rights, and global trade routes all collide. Each new clash adds yet another layer of risk and another chance for a miscalculation. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Thursday 18th September. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and to listen to the show ad free. Well, you can do that. Become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com and if you get the chance, and you're so inclined, also check out our YouTube channel. You can find that, oddly enough, on YouTube at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay.