The President's Daily Brief – PDB Situation Report

Episode: August 23rd, 2025: Ryan McBeth on Israel’s New Gaza Operation & DC Crime Data Scandal
Host: Mike Baker (The First TV)
Guests: Ryan McBeth (Intelligence Analyst), John Lott (Crime Prevention Research Center President)
Theme: In-depth analysis of Israel's major new Gaza City operation and an investigation into Washington, D.C.'s crime data reporting scandal.

Overview

In this episode, host Mike Baker provides critical insights into two prominent stories:

1. The Israeli Defense Forces' launch of "Gideon's Chariots 2," a major ground operation into Gaza City, featuring a report from intelligence analyst Ryan McBeth, fresh from Israel.
2. The Justice Department’s investigation of the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) for allegedly manipulating crime data, with expert commentary from Dr. John Lott.

Segment 1: Israel’s Gaza Operation – Firsthand Insights with Ryan McBeth

(Start: 00:42)

Background & Context of the Operation

• Israel has begun the initial stages of a major incursion into Gaza City, referred to as “Gideon’s Chariots 2.”
• Plan sanctioned by Israel’s Defense Minister aims to fully invade and occupy the city, possibly involving the call-up of 50–60,000 reservists.
  (01:40)

Ryan McBeth’s Key Observations from Israel

• McBeth’s visit included interviews and fieldwork, including with members of the 69th Hammer Squadron and on the ground at a kibbutz near Gaza.

Notable Realization: The Conflict Is Not Like The Troubles or Iraq

• [02:43] McBeth:

  "This is not Northern Ireland... This is a fundamental attitude by many Palestinians that Israel and Israel, they should not exist."

  • McBeth initially compared the conflict to Northern Ireland (“the Troubles”), believing land, governance, and concessions could solve it.
  • He realized after his visit that deep ideological divides prevent a straightforward solution such as a “Sons of Palestine” anti-Hamas initiative.
  • [03:49] McBeth:

    "This is not Iraq, this is not Northern Ireland. This is a totally separate case... I'm glad that I took that trip because it really showed me how wrong I was."

On the Use of Palestinian Labor and Internal Sabotage

• [04:50] McBeth:
  • Recounts kibbutz workers describing how Palestinian guest workers would draw detailed maps of locations inside Israel to aid future attacks.

  “A lot of the workers that entered into work on the kibbutz, they were drawing maps... of the locations on the kibbutz to hit. And that’s kind of what had struck me, that nothing, nothing we do is going to fix this... but now at least I can identify the problem.” (05:50)

The Issue of Deep Indoctrination

• [07:13] Baker:

  "The core group of Hamas, they've been indoctrinated... you can't put a Western mindset and logic and overlay it on a radical Islamist."

• The hosts agree: for many in Gaza, anti-Israeli sentiment is ingrained since childhood, and cannot be dislodged by force alone.

The Role of Education and Propaganda

• [07:54] McBeth:

  "I saw the map of what we would call Israel. This map was in Arabic... for school children in a kindergarten. That’s when it strikes you that this is not something that will be solved by force... it's going to require 30 years of education." (08:00)

Gaza Tunnel Systems – A Tactical Perspective

(08:35)

Key Insights on Tunnels:

• Gaza's tunnel network stretches 350–450 miles, estimated cost ~$1 billion.

  • Larger in length than NYC's subway system.
  • Used for smuggling, military movement, and attacks.

• Israelis use controlled detonations to collapse tunnels; this sometimes destroys overhead buildings.

• [09:08] McBeth:

  "Whenever they find a tunnel, they do a controlled detonation to collapse that tunnel... Some of the destroyed houses are from bombs. A lot are through bulldozers or tunnels detonated underneath..."

• Residents often have no say if Hamas builds tunnels beneath their homes.

  “A lot of these people... they can't say to Hamas, ‘No, please don't build a tunnel under my house.’ They'll be killed.” (10:24)

Comparison to Vietnam War “Tunnel Rats”

• Tunnels are more advanced than those in Vietnam; Israelis now use drones and, at times, dogs to clear tunnels, minimizing risks to soldiers.

Top Three Threats Facing the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) in Gaza

(14:52)

[14:52] McBeth:

1. IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices):
   • "They are absolutely everywhere."
2. Snipers:
   • Operate in organized teams of 3–4 (shooter, spotter, cameraman for propaganda, and team leader).
3. Capture:
   • Fear of capture is acute; prisoners face dire treatment.

The Problem of Urban Mines and Battle Space

• [16:36] McBeth:

  "Essentially every house... There's IEDs buried inside of rubble, hidey holes, and so on. It's a three-dimensional battle space, not like Iraq."

• Pre-constructed IEDs are stashed in advance, making clearance especially hazardous and slow.

Assessment: Operation’s Operational Progress & Humanitarian Implications

(18:32)

• The call-up of reservists and mass evacuation strategy is under way, not just bluff or posturing.
• Getting civilians to leave Gaza City is difficult:
  • Many are reluctant to abandon undamaged homes and their meager food supplies.
  • Some may lack the calories/strength to walk far enough to reach safety.

[19:22] McBeth:

"It's a pretty tough sell to any kind of citizen... it might be difficult for the Israelis to get these Palestinians in Gaza City to leave in the first place."

Israeli Public Opinion on the War

(21:19)

[21:19] McBeth:

• "About 80% of the people I talked to want this war to just end... jobs have been lost, businesses destroyed because of reserve duty... it is a major issue."

Personal Note: McBeth’s Fiction Writing

(22:13 – 24:53)

• "The Last Republic" – Alternate history about Brigham Young founding a sovereign Mormon country; explores themes of separatism and rebellion.
• Sequel ("Lies to Rule Men") explores a Catholic rebellion in this alternate timeline.
• This segment injects a lighter, intellectual note and showcases McBeth's multifaceted perspective.

Segment 2: DC Crime Data Scandal – Analysis with Dr. John Lott

(25:20 – 49:53)

DOJ Investigation & Allegations

• The Department of Justice investigates MPD for manipulation of crime stats—accusations include downgrading crime reports to make the city appear safer.
• Allegations are not isolated: police union and officers cite widespread, systemic issues.
  • Example: Injuries misclassified as accidents instead of violent incidents.
  • Felonies reduced to misdemeanors to lower apparent crime rates.

Understanding Crime Reporting Data

(28:23)

[28:23] Lott:

"We've known for decades that most crimes aren't reported to police. Only about 40% of violent crimes and about 30% of property crimes are reported. It depends on whether people believe the criminals will be punished."

• Areas with low trust or low arrest rates have the highest unreported crime rates.
• DC’s official stats underestimate crime; its actual rates are among the nation’s worst.

By the Numbers: DC Crime Rates

(32:45)

• DC’s violent crime is ~54% higher than the worst U.S. state; murder rate is 169% higher.
• Robbery rate: nearly 10 times the national average (955% higher).
• Among the 20 largest U.S. cities, DC tops the list in murder rate (50% above Philly, the next highest).

Effects of Data and Reporting Gaps

(34:15)

• It’s gotten harder to report crime due to police shortages—sometimes you’re told to come to the station, making reporting inconvenient.
• Only calls that result in a formal police report count in the FBI database.

[35:31] Lott:

"If you make it more time-consuming, more difficult to report a crime... some are going to say, 'I would have reported it before, but now I just don't.'"

The Problem of Juvenile Crime and Accountability

(40:40)

• DC has a dual system: U.S. Attorney (adults) and family courts (juveniles).
• Under prior DA, most arrests resulted in no prosecution; for juveniles, even convictions lead to little real punishment.

[40:53] Lott:

"Even when the person has been convicted, they haven't really faced punishment in a large percentage of these cases."

• Police numbers (1,300 officers; only 400 on patrol at a time) are far too few for the population, and the council has limited their authority to act.

Police Presence: The Broken Window Theory

(44:08)

• More police and visible enforcement lowers risk for criminals and deters crime.

• Cites James Q. Wilson’s broken windows theory: safer environments attract more people outside, which in turn deters crime further.

• Recent Trump administration actions:

  • Surge in federal law enforcement to DC streets.
  • Push for easier, faster issuance of concealed carry permits.

[44:37] Lott:

"My research convinces me: minorities, the people most likely victims of violent crime, benefit the most from being able to have a gun for protection."

Political Reaction and Partisan Dynamics

(47:22)

• Baker and Lott note that if the Democrat administrations enacted similar policies, there would be no progressive pushback.
• Accusation that opposition is more about politics than substance, even at the cost of public safety.

[49:04] Lott:

"Democrats claim that they care about the poor, that they care about the minority. Who do they think the victims of these crimes are?... the residents deserve a safe environment."

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• [03:30] Ryan McBeth:

  "This is not the Troubles. This is a fundamental attitude ... that Israel and Israel, they should not exist."

• [07:54] McBeth:

  "This is not something that's going to be solved by force of arms; this is going to require 30 years of education."

• [09:08] McBeth:

  "There is between 350 to 450 miles of underground tunnels ... almost twice as large as the New York City subway system."

• [14:52] McBeth:

  "Top three threats: IEDs, snipers, and being captured."

• [18:56] McBeth:

  "Getting people to leave Gaza City is a tough sell... there is definitely malnutrition and there's definitely hunger."

• [21:19] McBeth:

  "About 80% of the people I talked to want this war to just end."

• [28:23] John Lott:

  "We've known for decades that most crimes aren't reported to police."

• [32:45] Lott:

  "DC’s violent crime rate is like 54% higher than the worst state... robbery, the robbery rate in D.C. is 955% higher than for the average state."

• [40:53] Lott:

  "Even when the person has been convicted, they haven't really faced punishment."

• [49:04] Lott:

  "They claim that they care about it, but ... the way you make people safer is by making it risky for the criminals to go and commit these crimes."

Flow & Takeaways

• The Israel segment presents a nuanced, ground-level look at the Gaza conflict, emphasizing psychological, social, and tactical obstacles to peace—dispelling easy analogies to other global conflicts.
• The DC segment demystifies crime statistics, exposing why reported figures often understate real danger—drawing clear connections between enforcement failures, manipulated data, and deteriorating public confidence.
• Both segments highlight the complexity and deep-rooted issues beyond surface-level headlines.

Recommended Listening Order

• 00:42–24:53: Mike Baker with Ryan McBeth on Israel and Gaza (military, social, and humanitarian dynamics)
• 25:20–49:53: Mike Baker with John Lott on DC’s crime data scandal (data manipulation, real crime rates, systemic issues)

This summary captures the central ideas, arguments, and noteworthy moments from the episode, making it accessible for those who haven’t listened yet and offering source-attributed highlights for deeper insight.