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PDB Situation Report | August 9th, 2025: Why China's Economy is Worse Than You Think & Iranian Executions Raise Alarm Bells
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- [00:12]
Mike Baker
Welcome to the PDP SITUATION report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get brief, shall we? China's economy is unraveling under the weight of its own policies. As overcapacity triggers price wars and export markets dry up, Beijing may be trapped in a crisis that it can't escape. Author Gordon Chang, good friend of the show, joins us to break it down. Later in the show, Iran's regime unleashes a brutal wave of executions following its war with Israel, mass arrests, rushed trials and what critics are calling an execution spree. Alireza Jeffrezadeh from the National Council of Resistance of Iran will join us to give us his insight. But first, today's SITUATION Report spotlight. China is facing growing economic headwinds and its leaders are starting to sound the alarm. From real estate to exports, the engines of China's economy are, well, sputtering. But one of the most serious and self inflicted problems is overcapacity in its manufacturing sector. Party officials are calling it it's involution. It's the first time we've used that word here on the PDB Situation Report. It's a race to the bottom where too many producers flood the market and undercut each other with destructive price wars. And nowhere is this more evident than in China's bloated auto industry. Beijing's solution? Well, it's more investment, more control, doubling down on the very policies creating the crisis. Joining me now is Gordon Chang, author of Plan Red, China's Project to Destroy America. You can follow him at X. Gordon. G.J. gordon, it's terrific to see you back here on THE SITUATION report. Thanks as always for taking the time.
- [01:57]
Gordon Chang
Well, thanks, Mike.
- [01:58]
Mike Baker
Let me ask you, this is what you're saying is that China is in some kind of economic doom loop?
- [02:07]
Gordon Chang
Yes. China right now is in a very difficult position because there's no off ramp. Xi Jinping has turned his back on consumption as the fundamental basis of the Chinese economy, which means that his only hope is actually exporting more. But because of the tariff agreements that President Trump is putting into place, as well as increasing US Tariffs, China is being shut out of markets. Now, it's been able to export more in the last couple months. But when we start to look at how these agreements are going to function, it means that China will have no place to sell the goods that it was otherwise going to sell to the United States or Europe. And that means Xi Jinping just is in trouble. Now. He's got a lot of manufacturing capability. So, for instance, China can make more than half the world's requirements for cars. But the problem is that if he reduces that capacity, which he absolutely needs to do to stop deflation, then he's going to end up reducing the growth rate in China, which is probably about zero. So there are no practical solutions for this guy. And you can call it a doom loop or you can call it anything else, but there's just no, no hope for him.
- [03:24]
Mike Baker
Do you think that the growth rate is, is hovering somewhere around zero?
- [03:28]
Gordon Chang
Yes. They reported 5.2% for the second quarter of this year. But when we look at price data and we start looking at some of the underlying statistics, it looks more like zero, maybe a little bit above, maybe a little bit below. But this is a continuation of last year where the Chinese economy grew no more than a point and a half when they were claiming above 5% growth. So this is just a situation which has continued on and they have not been able to find anything except for exporting a little bit more. But as I mentioned, that tactic is really going to come to an end fairly soon because of the Trump trade deals.
- [04:14]
Mike Baker
Where do you think those negotiations are going to end? Because, I mean, given what you're saying, right, you would assume that, that the regime, that the CCP would do everything possible to try to minimize damage from any eventual trade agreement. But where do you think this might be going?
- [04:31]
Gordon Chang
Well, there's only one person who can really answer that, and his address is 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Northwest, Washington, D.C. but there's a couple of things. Yes, he wants a trade deal with China, but China is, I think, because of political turmoil, is increasingly arrogant and can't do what's right. And also, you've got the fundamental issues of fentanyl, which President Trump is an additional 20% tariff on China because of fentanyl sales, and that other looming issue, which is China's purchases of Russian energy. Just this week, President Trump announced that he was slapping an additional 25% tariff on India at the time that he was mentioning that India is a big taker of sanctioned Russian oil, and the biggest taker of Russian oil is China. So there's a possibility of an additional tariff for that as well. Plus, also, China has not been stopping its predatory or criminal trade practices. So this is, this is not going anywhere fast. Both sides want, I think, a delay. There's an August 12th deadline, and I don't think that. I think both sides want to continue beyond that to talk. Normally, delay helps the Chinese because that gives them more time to steal our intellectual property and to engage in their predatory trade practices. But this time, because of what Trump has been doing, I think the delay helps us because it gives Trump more time to stitch up more trade agreements which redirect trade flows away from China.
- [06:12]
Mike Baker
Now, you mentioned that the purchasing of Russian oil.
- [06:15]
Gordon Chang
Right.
- [06:16]
Mike Baker
And you're right, they're the number one consumer of this. A couple of questions there. How important has it been to the Chinese economy to be able to purchase all that Russian energy at discounted prices? Because obviously that was part of the deal. And to what degree do you know anything about what that discount looks like compared to global market prices?
- [06:38]
Gordon Chang
Yeah, it's important to one section of the Chinese energy business, and that's the teapots. Those are the independent refiners, because they're the ones that take Iranian and Russian oil, which is under sanctions. It doesn't affect the state refiners as much. But, you know, they probably get discounts, I imagine, of about 10% or so. And it varies too, that that discount has been more and it's been less. So it is important, but it's not absolutely critical to them. But nonetheless, they have made it very clear that they're going to continue to purchase Russian oil regardless of what the Trump administration does. And that leaves President Trump in a difficult position because he needs to cut off the flow of money to Russia in order to get it to the bargaining table. And China is a big portion of that Russian oil.
- [07:35]
Mike Baker
Yeah. What do you make of it wasn't that long ago that someone, I think it might have been in the Foreign Ministry said that they.
- [07:47]
Gordon Chang
Wasn'T.
- [07:47]
Mike Baker
That they couldn't foresee a Russian loss in Ukraine, but they would not stand for it. Essentially. I'm not, I'm paraphrasing here, but basically they were implying that they would not put up with a Russian loss in Ukraine.
- [08:02]
Gordon Chang
Yes. You're referring to a conversation on July 2. This was between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the EU foreign policy chief, Kaya Kallas. And in that conversation, Wang Yi said that China did not want to see Russia lose in Ukraine because if it did, it meant that the United States would focus on China in East Asia. The implication being that China is going to do everything possible to keep Russia in the fight. And that was a very, very interesting admission because, you know, people who have been watching this know that China's been supporting Russia, but it hadn't been willing to come out and actually say that. And Wang Yi's words were a blunt. And it just was in your face. With Europe because Europe is being threatened by Russia's war in Ukraine. And so the Chinese were basically saying, we're going to continue to do everything to make you feel less secure in Europe. And that was bold.
- [09:05]
Mike Baker
Yeah, but where, where does that, where does that go? I mean, I guess we've seen over the years. Right. Decades that, you know, it's been a relationship of convenience. It seems more for the Chinese than for the Russians. But, you know, there have been points in modern history where the US and our allies, we've, we've fretted about the, the relationship between China and Russia. And now, of course, they're, you know, they're talking about best friends forever and no limits partnership. In reality, what does that look like?
- [09:45]
Gordon Chang
In reality, this is really dangerous. A lot of smart people will tell you that long term, Russia and China won't get along. And that I can say is probably right. But that's completely irrelevant because what we got to worry about is this decade and this decade, China and Russia are form a durable partnership. And China's support for Russia's war effort in Ukraine is across the board, including providing soldiers. There are Chinese soldiers in Ukraine right now. There are about 150, 200 mercenaries. And the United States government tries to cover for China by saying, oh, there's no direct link between the regime and those mercenaries. But by the way, when you run a total surveillance state, as China does, you can't have 100 or 200 or however many mercenaries apply for visas to go fight in Russia without the Ministry of State Security knowing about it. But this story gets worse, Mike, because there are formal People's Liberation army officers at the front in Ukraine. So that's formal Chinese military. And they're there because the United States keeps on issuing these warnings, both the Biden and Trump administration, and doesn't do anything about it. So the Chinese just look at us and say, you guys are feckless and feeble and we're going to do what we want because you're not going to stop us because we're magnificent Chinese and you're submissive Americans. That's the way they look at it.
- [11:16]
Mike Baker
Well, it's also an opportunity for them to observe firsthand, right the, you know, the battlefield because again, they, you know, it's been some time since they've engaged in, in, in, in direct conflict. So I think the information, the intelligence that they gather from being embedded with Russian units and senior command is invaluable both in terms of assessing and looking at and acquiring intel on our weapons systems. To just straightforward battlefield strategy and certainly the drone impact on the battlefield.
- [11:55]
Gordon Chang
Yes, the Ukrainians and the Russians have revolutionized ground warfare with Dr. And everybody is learning from it, including the Chinese. But the point is the Chinese are there in defiance of everything that we want. And so we got to do something about it because if we don't do something about it, we know that China is going to become very, very bold. They don't respect us. They don't. I think they underestimate us by a lot. I think they underestimate President Trump and don't understand him. But the point is they are now incredibly aggressive and that's what's important. It's not important what we think. It's important what those guys think because that's going to drive their behavior and their behavior is exceedingly dangerous right now, Mike, and we have to worry about what could happen, especially when you have a leadership in turmoil in Beijing.
- [12:51]
Mike Baker
Well, I would argue we haven't been particularly good through many administrations in understanding what they're thinking or how they think. Gordon, if I want to pick back up on this, this very point when we come back, but if you'll stay right where you are, we have to take a quick break and then we'll be back with more from Gordon Jang here on THE SITUATION report. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let's take a moment to talk about online security and privacy. Right. Critical issues and very important for you to take these things seriously. I want to tell you about a great business out there that's working hard to protect people and that's called Delete Me. Delete Me makes it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when, well, surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable. Look, there are data brokers out there buying and selling your private information, which of course can lead to identity theft, phishing attempts and and even harassment. But you can take control of your data and keep your private life private with Delete Me. Sign up today and Delete Me will remove your data from hundreds of data broker websites. And now they'll do it at a special discount for PDB listeners. You can get 20 off your delete me plan by texting PDB to the number 64000. Again. The only way to get that 20 off is by texting PDB to the number 65000 PDB to 64000 message. And data rates may apply at New Balance. We believe if you run, you're a runner. However you choose to do it because when you're not worried about doing things the right way, you're free to discover your way. And that's what running is all about. Run your way@newbalance.com running she's made up.
- [14:51]
Gordon Chang
Her mind to live pretty smart, learn to budget responsibly right from the start. She spends a little less and puts more into savings. Keeps the blood pressure low and credit score raises.
- [15:07]
Mike Baker
She's curtained it right out of her life.
- [15:11]
Gordon Chang
She dropped.
- [15:14]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
Boring money moves make kind.
- [15:15]
Mike Baker
Of lame songs, but they sound pretty sweet to your wallet. BNC bank brilliantly boring since 1865. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Gordon Chang, author of Plan Red China's Project to Destroy America. If it's not on your desk or your bookshelf, I don't know what you're doing with yourselves, go out and get it. You can follow him. Also on X at Gordon Chi Chang. Gordon, I want to pick back up where we left off in the the earlier conversation. Your comment that we need to do something about it, can you elaborate?
- [15:52]
Gordon Chang
Well, China right now is extremely aggressive and they're very, they're just very arrogant. They believe that they can get forced Trump to do pretty much what they want or even disregard the United States. And that means that'll lead them to do things which we don't want them to do. Now, as I said, I don't think that they are right about that. I think that they totally misunderstand Trump. They don't comprehend what he's doing. But it doesn't really matter because what they are doing is they can start the world's next great conflict by what they're doing in, in the South China Sea or in the East China Sea. This is just really bad, Mike, and I hope that we can keep this in the box for a little while.
- [16:43]
Mike Baker
But what would you, I mean, if you were advising the White House, right. And how to deal with them in, in short order, I don't mean, you know, down the road, three to five year plan, whatever. I mean, in short order, what, what would you be telling them?
- [16:59]
Gordon Chang
I'd say since you put a 25 tariff on India for taking Russian oil, you got to put a 25 tariff on China. And you got to do that because you got to show the Chinese you're not afraid of them. Right now the Chinese think that Trump's afraid of them. They think that, for instance, their control over rare earth minerals gives them the right to do whatever they want. And yes, it does create leverage, but it Creates a lot less leverage than the Chinese thing. The Chinese imposed a rare earth embargo on Japan in 2010, and that embargo fell apart in two months because the Japanese said, we're just, we're just not putting up with this. Well, we put up with it. And so the Chinese took take a look at us and say, yeah, even though the US by all the metrics, is far stronger society than Japan, the Japanese are a far stronger opponent to China than the United States is. So we just got to disabuse them of that notion. And you can do it in any number of different ways. So 25% tariff for oil, you raise the tariffs on all sorts of things. You tell the Chinese you're no longer, we're no longer going to sell them the Nvidia H20 chip. Remember, we agreed to provide export licenses for the H20 because China was not supplying rare earths to us. And that rare earth business, they're violating their May 12th agreement with us by not selling rare earths to US defense contractors. But we're still selling them the H20 chip. So what's. This is just wrong on every single level. And the Chinese look at us and they say, who are these Americans? You know, they're no stronger than a third rate country. And when you look at the objectives of what we're, objectively, what we're doing, their assessment looks pretty right. Now, I think they're wrong because I think Trump is trying his best to be generous to them. So that gives them every chance, given them off ramps. This is what Trump did with Putin. You know, he was overly generous to Putin in his first months of the second administration. Then Trump lost patience, and now it brought the hammer down. Well, I think they're going to bring the hammer down on the Chinese, but until we do, we've got a very difficult Beijing to deal with.
- [19:17]
Mike Baker
What's at the, from your perspective, what's at the, the, the, the, the heart of, of, of why we've always been patient or, or. I don't want to say compliant. That might be a little bit too strong a word. But what, what is actually, it is. Yeah, it's not. Okay, well then I'll by God. Compliant. But what is it? Is it, is it the sort of the chasing the Holy Grail of the Chinese market, you know, from a, from a commercial perspective or what accounts for that?
- [19:50]
Gordon Chang
A number of things. First of all, at the end of the Cold War, we believe that history had ended as Francis Fukuyama told us, so eventually China would evolve into a democracy with a free market. So there was that confidence. Second of all, because Americans were doing business with China, they had interest in promoting Communist party themes. And in a democracy, they were influential, such as Wall street and big Fortune 500 companies. So there's that. Also, we're a democracy, and in a democracy. Tocqueville wrote about this in the 1800s. Democracies are very slow to defend themselves, which is explains a lot, for instance, and how we ended up in two big wars last century when we could have avoided both World War I and World War II, especially World War II. But we're a democracy, and because we do that, we take actions which open the door for aggressors. Democracies act very, very slowly to threats. So you put all that together, Mike, and it shows you how you can have a catastrophe.
- [20:59]
Mike Baker
Okay, look, I want to kind of jump all over the place right now because with the time that we've got left, I'm always left after we have a conversation, Gord. I'm always left with, with a variety of questions, some completely unrelated to the topic that we were discussing.
- [21:15]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
The.
- [21:16]
Mike Baker
The space race. Right, the weaponization of space. Who's winning that war, China or the US in your opinion?
- [21:25]
Gordon Chang
Well, China, I mean, we're very late to the game of defending ourselves in space. And if there's a war right now, we could lose our space based assets because China and Russia have been developing weapons to take them down, and we're very slow to develop weapons to take theirs down or to defend what we've got in the race for the moon. We should be ahead, but we're not very determined. We've got a lot of political battles between somebody called Donald Trump and somebody else called Elon Musk. Because if we're going to get to the moon, it's only because of Elon Musk. And he seems to be having troubles with the occupant of the White House right now. We've got to cut that out. So there's a lot of reasons why, again, you look at the metrics, we should be ahead, but we are oblivious. We are not moving with the determination and vigor that's required. And this is a general story. I mean, we are a far stronger society than China, but we can lose our country, Mike. We can lose our country because we're not defending ourselves.
- [22:30]
Mike Baker
As we need to chat again, sort of a scattershot approach for the questions. But Xi Jinping, have you heard anything about his health? How much time do you think he still has in office? And does it really make a difference who's sitting in that position in terms of US national security interests?
- [22:54]
Gordon Chang
There are a lot of rumors. I think that Xi Jinping has lost a lot of influence in the Chinese over the Chinese military. I think he's lost some influence over China's civilians. We'll know a lot more by the end of October because there are two big events, Communist Party events between now and then. One of them is this month at the ongoing beta. Excuse me, Beta Hu gathering of senior Communist Party figures. And the other is the Communist Party's fourth plenum in October. Some people think that Xi Jinping will be completely out. Some people think that Xi Jinping is as strong as ever. We're just going to have to wait and see. And yes, it does matter, because we could get a very quiet Chinese leadership that realizes it needs to us. If Xi Jinping is out, we could get a very hostile Chinese general. If Xi Jinping is out, who knows how all of this is going to go on?
- [23:52]
Mike Baker
It's shocking when you say that some people who follow this, you know, think he could be out in October. Some people think he's got a firm grip and it's never been stronger. I mean, that's from an intel perspective, right? In the old job of collecting information, you know, when you've got that big a gap, it makes you really concerned about the quality of your sources, you know, and the ability. What. What makes it so difficult to assess where he is? I mean, Look, I understand 40 years ago, before the Internet, before access to information was. Was so rapid, but, you know, how would you assess, I guess, is the question I'm asking. How would you assess U.S. intel capabilities on China, on Xi Jinping's condition, in this grip on power are the important things here.
- [24:42]
Gordon Chang
Yeah. The CIA is completely blown in China. And we know that the Chinese executed some 30 CIA agents about five, six years ago. Through incredibly bad tradecraft, the Chinese were able to wrap up almost the entire network. I mean, we have the ability to listen in on phone conversations, but the Chinese know that, and so they're able to cover a lot of stuff up. I mean, the rumors are really interesting. And I would look at if there are unexplained movements of Chinese military units, if they exist, Xi Jinping is finished. If these rumors about these movements are not true, then, you know, Xi Jinping has a real shot. Yeah.
- [25:27]
Mike Baker
Apropos of nothing, Gordon. In the old days, back before cell phones, even the North Koreans, Right. Talk about a hermit kingdom. Back then, there was just no transparency. But they were worried about having their phone conversations listened in on. And so what they would do, their defensive mechanism was to whisper so that I'm just, I'm just in case, in case the Chinese intel apparatus is listening. Whispering works. You should give that a try, Gordon. Look, we're out of time once again, I've got more questions for you, but I want to be mindful of, of your time. So I hope, I hope you come back when we call, and I know for a fact we'll call because the issues that you focus on are not going away. They're not going to settle down anytime soon. Thank you very much, Gordon, for being back here on THE SITUATION report. That's Gordon Chang. I tell you what, if you want to know what's happening in the world of Chinese relations, national security concerns over China, you got to be paying attention to Gordon. You can follow him on X at Gordon G. Chang. All right. Coming up next, Iran's rulers unleash a wave of executions after the war with Israel. Mass arrests, rushed trials and and a new law to expand the death penalty. Critics say the regime is cracking down with brutal speed. Ali Raza Jeffersadeh with the National Council of Resistance of Iran will join us for more on that. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here with a very solid fashion tip because as you know, I am somewhat known for my fashion sense. Now I want to tell you about a great clothing company out there. It's called True Classic. With True Classic, it's, it's never just about the fit or the fabric, though both the fit and fabric for True Classic are outstanding. But it's also about helping guys show up with confidence and purpose every day. Look, their clothes fit when they should. They feel incredible and they don't cost a fortune. You get that tailored look without blowing your budget. True Classic's mission is all about uplifting men in their day to day lives, giving back to underserved communities. And you know what, doing it all without taking themselves too seriously, which is pretty refreshing these days. When you throw on two plastic clothing, you can feel the difference. It's tailored where you want it, relaxed where you need it. There's no bunching. And trust me, nobody needs any bunching. There's no stiff fabric. You don't want that either. There's no BS it's just a clean, effortless fit that actually works for real life. Forget the overpriced designer brands and skip that cheap throwaway stuff. Trueclassic is built for comfort. It's built to last. And it's built to give back. You can find them at Target, at Costco, or just head to trueclassic.com PDB.
- [28:04]
Gordon Chang
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- [28:06]
Mike Baker
Of what ifs, but luckily there's a.
- [28:08]
Gordon Chang
Simple answer to them. Shopify. It's the commerce platform behind millions of businesses including Thrive Cosmetics and Momofuku.
- [28:15]
Mike Baker
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- [28:18]
Gordon Chang
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- [28:30]
Mike Baker
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- [28:38]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
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- [28:41]
Mike Baker
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- [28:44]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
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- [28:47]
Mike Baker
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- [28:50]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
Of your space with bins and totes. Built to last. Whatever your story, we've got the gear.
- [28:56]
Mike Baker
To keep it organized and protected at the Home Depot. How doers get more done. Welcome back to the PDB Situation report. Now it's been over a month since the end of the 12 day war between Israel and Iran. But inside Iran, well, the regime is now waging a different kind of war on its own people. Authorities have launched what human rights groups are calling a, quote, execution spree, part of a broader crackdown since the conflict ended. Mass arrests, rushed trials, executions expedited, and now an emergency bill nearing approval that would expand the use of the death penalty even further. Just this week, between August 3rd and 6th, the regime executed at least 29 prisoners, including a woman. Supreme leader, Ali Khamenei appears to be accelerating the killings with chilling brutality. Joining us now is Alireza Jafarzadeh, the deputy director of the Washington office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. Alireza, thank you again for joining us here on THE SITUATION report. Hope you're well. And we've got a long list of questions here to run through.
- [30:07]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
Always a pleasure, Mike. Always happy to be on your show. Appreciate that.
- [30:11]
Mike Baker
Let's, let's talk about post conflict Iran, right? It's been over a month now since, since the ceasefire was enacted after the 12 day war between Israel and Iran and with obviously the US Stepping in for very specific targeted strikes. What is the situation inside Iran? Now I know that's a very broad question. So maybe let's look at it from both the Iranian regime's perspective, how have they dealt with it? And then if we could look at it from the population's perspective. I'm curious as to how much the average Iranian inside Iran understood about the 12 day conflict.
- [30:50]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
Well, first of all, you know, the regime always claimed that if I'm confronted, if the world puts pressure on me, you know, let alone going to war, the population will rally behind the flag. It will be to the benefit of the Iranian regime and, you know, all kinds of claims. Plus you had all the apologists doing that. Now what actually happened was that the weakness and the vulnerability of the Iran regime was on display for the whole world to watch. The people did not rally behind the flag because you have a population in Iran that has been trying to overthrow the mullahs. There were several rounds of major uprisings in the country since 2018. So, you know, if the goal of the Iran regime was to use the conflict in order to gain momentum and put themselves in a stronger position, you know, they were defeated. And one of the signs of the lack of success for the mullahs has been since the end of the conflict, there has been a rise in the number of executions of prisoners in Iran, including political prisoners. Unless you are absolutely desperate, you don't resort to executions, but you want to boast about, you know, the, the power of standing up against the United States and to the country. It just further demonstrates the weakness and the desperation of the Iran regime. Of course, no one expects for a country like Iran with like you know, close to 90 million population, such a large territory, to, to fall as a result of, of a foreign conflict. The issue has always been inside Iran, the desire of the people, the organized resistance, what efforts are being done internally to end the rule of the clerics. And again, I think that's what the regime was afraid that the focus is going to be back on the prospect for change. And that's what we've seen just in the past two weeks. There have been several cases of political execution of prisoners, including two members of the mek, which is the main opposition movement that also exposed the major nuclear sites of Iran. Mehdi Hassani and Behrouz Ehsani. They were arrested months before, but they were sentenced to death and they were specifically executed despite massive international attention on them, trying to stop it, really showing the vulnerability of the regime, but also what they're afraid of.
- [33:45]
Mike Baker
Now, how much of this is in response to the 12 day conflict? And by that I mean, obviously there were some very surgical, very targeted, successful terminations of key IRGC personnel, nuclear scientists, individuals in the nuclear program. So was there, you know, from the Iranian regime, was there a response of Rounding people up, basically. Let's, let's just haul people in. And, and because again, it would, it would seem to me that, you know, the, the time is ripe to create a real sense of paranoia within the irgc.
- [34:24]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
Well, certainly, you know, this was a regime that was, has been used to creating fear not just among their own population, but also the whole region. They have relied on their proxies for decades to use them as what they called strategic death. They relied on allies, they relied on their missile program, their drone program, they use their nuclear weapons program as basically bullying tool to gain concessions from the Western nations. All of that has been up and smoke, you know, the, in the past few months. So what people saw was that those Revolutionary Guard commanders who were threatening others were not around anymore. So, you know, they can always replace them with others. But it's just the weakness and the vulnerability of the regime, which is the most important thing. And the reason it's important is that because there was this background of the uprising of the people, the discontent of the population, the paranoia that already existed within the regime that makes it even worse. You know, since Pezechyan took office as president just last year, close to 1600 prisoners have been executed by the regime owned by political prisoners, women. Why would you want to do that if you are not afraid of your own population? So you can see the desperation of the regime. But obviously, as we had said all.
- [36:09]
Gordon Chang
Along.
- [36:11]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
The concession is not a solution for confronting the Iranian regime. The war itself is not a solution either. There has to be a third option which is bringing about change in Iran by the people of Iran. And that's where I think the focus is now increasing beyond. And that's what the regime is afraid of.
- [36:32]
Mike Baker
Well, I think that's, it's an excellent point. It's just there's also this interesting dynamic, right, that you, you have the dissent, right? And then the 12 day war erupts and the people are in sort of an awkward position, right? Because if, if you use that chaos and that conflict to kind of rise up and be more vocal and look to try to, you know, build support for some sort of dissent and protest, it seems in a way that you're supporting Israel, right? And so, you know, it puts, it puts the, the, the people in Iran in a awkward position. I, I'm not explaining myself very well, but maybe you, you see my point. So there's that element. But let me go back to that part of that question that we had at the very beginning. From your perspective and what you've seen and heard inside Iran. How well informed are the people of Iran in terms of what took place on, on during that 12 day conflict?
- [37:35]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
Well, you know, the goal was never a regime change, nor a regime change would happen as a result of a foreign conflict. Of course, you know, in the case of Iraq, for instance, of course the US went to Iraq, overthrew, you know, the Iraqi government and replaced it with their, you know, with their own military and all of that. That's a totally different scenario. This is not what we were, we've been talking about. And I think the people of Iran understood very well that this regime is not just simply collapse because there was a foreign conflict. They also understood that they shouldn't be rallying behind the regime because they hated the regime. Regardless of the nuclear conflict, regardless of even their missile program. This is a regime that has been repressive as we're plundering the wealth of a nation. There is an ocean of blood between the people and the regime. So nothing could really rally the people behind the flag. But nor did they expect to see a change, some foreign governments to come and overthrow the regime for the people of Iran. And we never expected that. We never even went that route. We always emphasize that change in Iran will have to come from within by the people of Iran. And we're not asking boots on the ground nor appropriation of money or arms.
- [39:09]
Mike Baker
I'm sorry for interrupt you. I, I'm just mindful of time. I mean, to what degree would just the average person on the street aware of the extent of this conflict? I mean, you know, the information dissemination internally within Iran, how much access do they have to, to news of the day? I mean, is it a common knowledge that, that you know, Isfahan and the Times and Ford were hit by the US in the capacity that they were. Is it, is it understood the damage that was done to the missile program? Is there information disseminated so the average person on the street understands that there were, there were a number of, of terminations of key people within the irgc. I mean, to what degree does the average person walking the street in Tehran or elsewhere in Iran know what took place?
- [39:54]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
Extensively? They understand the whole situation despite the censorship, despite, you know, everyone, everything controlled by the media. But in this day and age, you know, you can't contain the population from getting the information. People fully understood the nature of the conflict. It wasn't about regime change. It was about a specific, you know, issue which was the nuclear weapons program of the Iran regime. No one went beyond that expectations. They didn't listen to the regime's propaganda. There were no expectations of regime change immediately in the middle of the bombings and everything. This hasn't happened anywhere else in the world and nor would be in Iran. So I think the Iranian public are really well educated and well informed.
- [40:48]
Mike Baker
Okay. All right. I want to pick back up on, on a couple other kind of peripheral topics to the the 12 day conflict. Alireza. But first we have to take a quick break. So don't go anywhere if you can stay right where you are. Then we'll be back with more from Alireza and Jeff Azadeh and the situation report. So stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time to talk about protecting your hard earned assets. Now, I suspect you've probably noticed that out there in the world there's a little turmoil in the economy, right? Trade wars, a US Federal Reserve that seems a bit at odds with the White House. Uncertainty, overemployment numbers, a volatile stock market. Look, you get the picture, right? It's at times like these when it's important to think about your assets and how to protect them. And, and one way to do that, frankly, is through diversification. And I'm here to suggest that you consider diversifying with gold from the Birch Gold Group. Look, for decades, gold has been viewed as a safe haven in times of economic stagnation or global uncertainty or high inflation. And Birch Gold makes it incredibly easy for you to diversify some of your savings into gold. If you have an IRA or maybe an old 401k, you can convert that into a tax sheltered IRA and physical gold. Or like a lot of folks, just buy the gold and store it safely at home. First, you want to get yourself educated and Birch Gold can send you a free information kit on gold. All you got to do is text PDB to the number 989898. Again, text PDB to 989898. Consider diversifying a portion of your savings into Gold. That's PDB to 989898.
- [42:30]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
I'm Piers Morgan, the host of the Piers Morgan Uncensored podcast. We do big interviews and we do big debates about whatever's getting people talking. We make news, we make noise, and we make a little bit of trouble, too. Come and see what all the fuss is about. You can listen to Piers Morgan Uncensored on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [42:56]
Mike Baker
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Alireza Jafarzadeh. He's the deputy Director of the Washington office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. We've been talking about Iran post the 12 day war with Israel and Iran. Al Ra, if you could talk to us a bit about the efforts by the Iranian regime, by their intel apparatus, by the IRGC to target dissidents, journalists, others, prominent politicians overseas outside of Iran's borders.
- [43:34]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
Well, we just had a lot of information revealing in Washington D.C. about the escalation of the terror operations by the Iran regime and Western nations. You know, on July 31st of this year, the United States and 13 European nations, allies put out a joint statement highlighting the threat of the Iranian regime on their territories, the terror threat and, and, and saying that the Iran regime has been using a lot of the foreign nationals, criminal groups and others. This actually was the first time, as far as I know, that such a joint statement that come out by the United States and Europe regarding the threat of Iran. Honestly speaking, what I had seen before mostly were the statements, particularly by Europeans, about just turning their attention away from the regime's terrorism, just giving them concessions, releasing their hostage takers, they're releasing their criminals. But this time it was different. So that's important. Second, we found out about the terror structure that is controlled by the Supreme Leader Khamenei on top of all of their terror operations that takes place, that he's the one who either orders or approves or oversees all of their terror operations outside of Iran. And this is nothing new. He has been doing it since day one, even before Huey came, the Supreme Leader. But what is important is that the Minister of Intelligence, the mis, which is the most secretive organization within the regime, that no one really knows anything about them except, you know, the head of the Minister of Intelligence, which is always appointed by the Supreme Leader. Nothing else is known about it. We reveal a lot of information on even like the nuclear issue, but didn't have much on the intelligence. Well, we found out about 25 top directors of the Minister of Intelligence involved in carrying out terror operations. But also they have created a new unit called Asan Soleimani Headquarters that is run by the Minister of Intelligence, whose job is to coordinate between the IRGC force, the IRGC intelligence Organization and also the Minister of Intelligence and using their, you know, the foreign embassies outside of Iran. And that perhaps explains why you had that joint statement by the United States and European nations. We looked at the different cases that the regime has been involved in terrorism. We realized that either the regime, in some cases they rely entirely on, on their own Operatives, you know, their own Iranian agents, their own properties. They have, and in some cases they have used, combined both their own operatives, but also employing foreign nationals, foreign mercenaries. And recently, especially increasingly, they rely on entirely using criminal gangs, you know, drug traffickers. And it's not that they're just reaching out and trying to find some criminals to do the job for them. They actually run these criminal gangs and been involved in running them for years. You know, there was this infamous case of the assassination attempt on the life of a Spanish politician who used to be the vice president of European Parliament. But because he was so close to the Iranian resistance, he was targeted in November of 2023 in daylight in Madrid. But, you know, they were successful because the gun jammed after the fire. One shot, Professor Vidal part of survived, but they realized that the whole thing was basically a Moroccan group of gang of criminals involved in drug trafficking by killing a lot of people, that the head of that gang actually lives in Iran right now. So, you know, so you can see how over the years, Iran regime had invested not just black groups like Hezbollah, but also on criminal gangs to and drop gangs, both to give them money, but also to come to help them with their terrorism when they need it.
- [48:19]
Mike Baker
Yeah, it's a sort of all of the above approach, I think, is what we, what we've seen. I mean, it's. And we've seen recent examples in Scandinavia involving members of a criminal gang and out of Canada to try to, for an attempted hit in the US that was foiled. Look, you know, they, they've revealed information about the, you know, reportedly a very close attempt on Mike Pompeo's life in Paris just, I think, three years ago, obviously, the targeting of, of Prime Minister Netanyahu, of President Trump. What do you. I mean, it, it, it seems like a very thin veneer of plausible deniability. But, you know, there have been a variety of clerics out there calling for violence against, in particular Netanyahu and President Trump. But anybody who they consider to be an enemy of God. Right, so they've essentially a fatwa, but with the, the Iranian regime trying to say, hey, it's not, you know, we're not doing.
- [49:25]
Gordon Chang
That's.
- [49:25]
Mike Baker
No, that's not us. What do you, what do you make of that?
- [49:30]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
Well, first of all, those statements are repeatedly coming out on July 4th of this year, a senior cleric who is the, actually the Friday Prayer leader in Tehran. And, you know, those Friday Prayer speeches are fully scripted. They don't just talk off the cuff, especially in Tehran. And he called for the assassination of President Trump. And then it was followed up by a letter signed by some 2,000 clerics in the religious town of Qom, including some of senior clerics who sit on the Expediency Council. Senior, senior ones re emphasizing on the need to assassinate President Trump. Now this is not just some like networks here and there. This is, the whole thing is run by the Supreme Leader Khamenei. And we actually today, you know, talked about the one person who is of interest for the FBI. His name is, said that Yahya Panjaki. He is the one, he's a deputy in the Ministry of Intelligence of the Iranian regime. But he's also in charge of running these criminal gangs. He was also in charge of running the gang that you just mentioned that, you know, based in Canada. But they had hired some people in the United States from Minnesota to target some dissidents here in, in Maryland. This is the same network that the regime had used in order to target foreign nationals. They could easily use the same networks here in the United States for targeting the President of the United States or anybody else you mentioned, you know, Mr. Pompeo and John Bolton. And there's a whole list of people that the regime doesn't like. And you know, these are the, the senior officials who've been tough on the Iranian regime. So that's why it's so important to take every such actions very seriously to investigate them, get to the bottom of it and just get them expelled. And one of the things the regime had done, they relied on other networks they have in order to nurture, to find the right people, to recruit people. And that's why you shouldn't allow the regime to operate their embassies, their, their missions. One of the people wanted by the FBI was actually a so called diplomat at the UN mission of the regime in New York, then became the U.S. the Iran regime Ambassador to Albania, which was involved in terrorism, was expelled by the Albanian government. He was also involved in the abduction and possible murder of, of Levinson who disappeared in Iran a few years ago, is believed to be perhaps dead. Who knows. So these are the kind of people and then this same guy was sitting at the negotiating table representing Iran next to Jabal Zarif, the Foreign Minister and others across the table with the Americans, with John Kerry, with Mr. Moniz and you know, Rob Malley and Wendy Sherman.
- [52:52]
Mike Baker
Alexa, I'm, I want to be mindful of time. This is a very broad question, I understand that, but I'm, I'm just to tie this all together, right? It's Kind of a two part question. Yes. The Iranian, you know, axis of resistance has been say, massively degraded, right? Leadership, weapons, supplies, revenue streams. All of that's true. Yes, there was some success. Didn't obliterate the, the sites that they targeted during the 12 day conflict, but there was, there was damage. At the end of the day though, this sounds like a very pessimistic thing to say, but what's changed? Right? We still have the Iranian regime. You have the irgc. They've stated they're going to continue their, you know, their nuclear research and efforts, enrichment. They've stated they're still going to continue supporting and rebuilding their proxies. Was this just kicking the can down the road and buying some time? I mean, what's changed?
- [53:54]
Alireza Jafarzadeh
Well, several things have changed and of course I'm sure there are people who just love to kick the can down the road and just business as usual. But I can recall in the past 40 plus years that you have seen such a unified voice both in the United States and Europe focusing on the threat of the Iranian regime and thinking that we need to do something about that rather other than appeasing them. Second, inside Iran you have a population that has never been so active in terms of protests, but also thinking that, okay, at the end of the day it's us who are going to bring about change. The outside world can do and should do their own part in limiting access to the regime. But here's the solution. Here is the organized resistance, here is the prospect for change. And I think that's where you want to really focus on the solution, not just highlighting the threat. And that I think is, you know, where the Congress, for instance, has been very good and strong and highlighting that. And that's where we still need to do a lot of work. We need to get the administration here, but also in Europe to think about the solution, not just the problem.
- [55:17]
Mike Baker
Okay. All right. Well, that is, I would classify that as a somewhat hopeful way to cap this conversation off. Ali Razor, thank you as always. You know, we will definitely be calling and I hope when we do you'll pick up the phone again and come back on the on the situation report. But Alireza Jefferson, deputy director of the Washington Office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. You know, once again, thank you for your insight, your experience and taking the time to join us. Well, that is all the time we have for this week's PDB situation report. I know, right? Sad trombone. If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes, just reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com right? You, you, you know what we do with your questions and your comments, don't you? The highlight of every week at the PDB compound, which is a secret layer underneath a dormant volcano, is when Carl the mailman, I still don't know how he found us, drops off another sack filled with postcards and emails and faxes and even telegrams. Western Union, remember that. And every month our amazing team, including a gaggle of above average interns, well, they select a bunch of your questions and produce one of our critically acclaimed Ask Me Anything episodes. So keep your cards and letters coming. Finally, to listen to the podcast of this show ad free. You can do that. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and until next time, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. SA.