The President's Daily Brief Situation Report – December 13, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Mike Baker delivers an in-depth analysis of two major unfolding global events: Japan’s largest military shift since WWII in response to regional threats from Chinaand Iran's surging student-led resistance under mounting regime pressure. Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery provides expert commentary on Japan’s defense escalation and China’s regional ambitions, while Iranian-American scholar and human rights advocate Dr. Ramesh Separad shares insights into Iran’s youth protests and internal dissent.

Segment 1: Japan’s Transformation — Major Military Expansion in the Shadow of China

[01:11–11:28 & 14:53–27:19]

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Japan’s Historic Military Build-up

• Backdrop: In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and escalating tensions with China, Japan is dramatically expanding its military—the largest shift since WWII.

  • Details: New missile batteries, radar systems, electronic warfare units, ammunition depots, and a significant US-Japan F-35 base are being developed across strategic islands near Taiwan.

• Expert Analysis (Ret. Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery):

  • “Japan is undertaking its largest military buildup since World War II... a sweeping transformation across the entire Ryukyu chain." [02:20]

2. The Taiwan Factor—Why Tokyo Views China as Existential Threat

• Strategic Rationale: Japan considers any forced Chinese reunification of Taiwan as an existential risk, not just for Taiwan but for Japan's own security and sovereignty.
  • Montgomery: “A Chinese attack on Taiwan is an existential threat to the security of Japan.” [03:56]
• Losing Taiwan would shatter US-Japan security guarantees and invite Chinese hegemony over Japan and Korea.

3. US Policy & Strategic Ambiguity

• The US commitment to Taiwan remains ambiguous compared to defense treaties with Japan and Korea.

  • Montgomery: “The President just put a national security strategy out... we will not allow China to coerce Taiwan... But the kind of removal of China being listed as a security adversary... makes Taiwan nervous.” [06:36]

• The current administration’s unpredictability and previous approaches (“strategic ambiguity" vs. "strategic unpredictability") are debated, including potential responses in the event of a Chinese move on Taiwan.

  • Quote: “President Trump practices more a form of strategic unpredictability... he kind of preserves some deterrence... Anyone who tells you they know the answer to that... probably doesn’t know what they’re talking about.” — Montgomery [08:22]

4. The New 21st Century Threats

• Beyond invasion, "most likely scenarios" might include China’s use of cyber enabled economic warfare, disinformation, and “fake military feints” to erode societal resilience in Taiwan—an area where both Taiwan and the US are vulnerable. [10:22]
• Both experts concur: “That type of war is already underway... perhaps we just don’t see it.” — Baker [11:28]

5. Japan’s Growing Defense Capabilities

• Triggered by Ukraine, Japan resolved to break from its defense-spending cap, with major increases toward missiles, aircraft, and interoperable US technology.
  • “Here’s the most efficient country in the world outside of Israel beginning to really expend more money on equipment... That's got China a little nervous because they also have geographic proximity.” — Montgomery [15:26]
• Japan is acquiring Tomahawk missiles, F-35s, and expanding capacities to send a direct deterrent signal to China and bolster regional integration with US forces.

6. China’s Reaction: Aggressive, Bullying, and Nuclear Rhetoric

• China has responded with threats and personal attacks at Japanese leaders, reflecting a longstanding pattern of bullying all but the US.
  • Montgomery: "China is a bully. When they see a country is smaller than them... they bully them. That is their MO.” [18:50]
• "What Japan is buying with this is F35 fifth generation aircraft... things that can hit China. So, you know, this is all a strong deterrent signal from Japan. Don’t mess with us, don’t mess with the United States, and don’t mess with Taiwan." [18:50]

7. US-Japan Military Integration

• Japanese and US forces are moving toward unprecedented operational integration, especially in naval power and joint exercises.
  • "The most integrated navies in the world are the US Navy and the Japanese Navy... In every military area, they’re moving from deconflicted to coordinated to integrated." [20:24]

8. China-Russia Military Tech Exchange

• China’s support for Russia in Ukraine has been pivotal: backing its economy and reportedly sharing tech for quieter submarines and airborne assault operations.
  • “If true, these would be significant issues that make it more challenging for Taiwan or the United States to fight China.” [22:08]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "Taiwan is the canary in the coal mine. If it goes down, we’re going to have to come to grips with a regional hegemonic Chinese power." — Montgomery [04:17]
• “Japan’s F35s... their own indigenous, locally produced strike weapons, things that can hit China. A strong deterrent signal from Japan.” — Montgomery [18:50]
• “With a president that is intentionally unpredictable, I think he revels in it.” — Montgomery [08:22]

Timestamps

• [01:11] Japan’s military buildup overview
• [02:56] Adm. Mark Montgomery joins on implications for Taiwan/China
• [06:36] US policy ambiguity and future scenarios
• [15:26] Japan’s spending, strategic changes after Ukraine
• [18:50] China bullying/threats, Japan’s hardening stance
• [20:24] US-Japan military integration
• [22:08] China-Russia technology exchange

Segment 2: Iran’s Youth-Led Uprising Amid Regime Crisis

[29:22–56:15]

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalating Unrest and the Role of Iran’s Youth & Students

• Iran faces “a very combustible situation”: economic hardship, regime legitimacy crisis, and a catastrophic water shortage.
• Students and youth are prominent in frontline protests despite extreme risk under the Islamic regime.
  • “Speaking out in Tehran today... can mean arrest, torture, disappearance or death. Yet they continue. Their resistance has become one of the clearest signs that Iran’s youth are awakening.” — Baker [29:22]

2. The Evolving Resistance Network

• Dr. Ramesh Separad: “The movement inside Iran... has a very clear and core message for the international community that Iran is no longer a question of reform or diplomacy, but of who really holds the legitimate power: the people of Iran.” [30:54]
• The student-led movement is now linked to a national “network of resistance units”—local, coordinated, and increasingly sophisticated.
  • “They have a tremendous support from the public... an organized uprising, a resistance unit network inside Iran, with a clear transition plan.” [32:40]

3. Regime Weakness, Succession, and Public Legitimacy

• The regime is described as “extremely weak”; Supreme Leader Khamenei "is not able to get himself a successor in place, is not able to rally the troops."

  • “What is he afraid of? ... He’s afraid of the people.” — Separad [34:29]

• The regime’s Achilles heel is political legitimacy: repeated mass protests have shifted focus from economic grievances to outright calls for regime change.

  • Memorable Quote: "The issue of freedom has been the persistent conflict... economic protests quickly become a political demand and a push for a change of this regime." — Separad [37:11]

4. Protest Dynamics and Adaptation

• Protests are now more decentralized and agile, shifting from large public gatherings to networked flash protests and sectoral unrest (e.g., among teachers, workers, retirees).
  • “Instead of having a major nationwide uprising, [the resistance] is networking across multiple cities... In 2017, the protest started in the city of Mashad, and within hours, the same slogans were heard in south Iran.” — Separad [45:10]

5. Can Change Happen Without Violence?

• "The IRGC and the mullahs know there is an explosive socio-economic condition and a political player that has been persistent... The next trigger can really create that nationwide uprising faster than anyone can predict." — Separad [47:49]
• The international community’s most important role is not intervention, but the recognition of the Iranian people’s right to overthrow the regime.

6. Economic Crises & Environmental Catastrophe

• Economic Hardship: The rial has collapsed, ordinary citizens are desperate, and “mafia-style governance” by the IRGC and corruption mean “there is no solution coming from this regime.” [49:36]
• Water Crisis: Decades of environmental mismanagement and IRGC corruption have left Tehran on the brink of running dry.
  • “Years of mismanagement... brought us to this conversation around moving the capital. That’s just not feasible.” — Separad [51:38]

7. Succession & Future Outlook

• Khamenei is ill, his grooming plans have failed, and internal regime infighting undermines stability.
  • “The death of Khamenei itself could be a trigger for the next nationwide uprising. But I actually think that will come sooner.” — Separad [53:01]
• The opposition is ready: organized, connected with the expatriate parliament-in-exile, and supported by the US Congress and European parliamentarians.

8. Hope and Resilience

• Notable moment: “Who gives me hope is the women of Iran, is the youth of Iran and those who are fighting for democracy and freedom. They are my source of inspiration.” — Separad [55:43]

Timestamps

• [29:22] Setting the stage—unrest, water crisis, student role
• [30:23] Dr. Separad joins: youth front, organized resistance
• [34:29] Regime weakness and legitimacy crisis
• [36:36] What drives dissent—freedom over economics
• [39:49] Protest evolution, flash protests, sectoral strikes
• [45:10] Resistance tactics and regime adaptation
• [47:49] Can the uprising succeed peacefully?
• [49:36] Economic and environmental crises in Iran
• [51:38] Water crisis details, regime mismanagement
• [53:01] Regime succession and looming change
• [55:43] What drives hope for Iran's advocates

Notable Quotes – Quick Reference

• On Japan:

  • “A Chinese attack on Taiwan is an existential threat to the security of Japan.” — Montgomery [03:56]
  • “President Trump practices strategic unpredictability... anyone who tells you they know what he’d do… probably doesn’t know what they’re talking about.” — Montgomery [08:22]

• On Iran:

  • “Iran is no longer a question of reform or diplomacy, but of who really holds the legitimate power: the people of Iran.” — Separad [30:54]
  • “The issue of freedom has been the persistent conflict... economic protests quickly become a political demand and a push for a change of this regime.” — Separad [37:11]
  • “Who gives me hope is the women of Iran, is the youth of Iran and those who are fighting for democracy and freedom. They are my source of inspiration.” — Separad [55:43]

Tone & Language

• The discussion is frank, direct, occasionally somber but infused with realism and cautious optimism. Both segments feature authoritative, clear-eyed analysis with memorable, personal asides.

Summary Takeaways

• Japan: Takes unprecedented, rapid steps to deter China as US ambiguity and regional instability grow. Integration with US forces is deepening, and Japan is delivering strong deterrent messages with action and equipment.
• Iran: Student and youth demonstrations, alongside an expanding resistance network, pose a formidable challenge to a regime weakened by legitimacy crises, economic failure, and environmental disaster. Change, say advocates, is looming, and the world’s focus should be on supporting Iranian people’s self-determination.