PDB Situation Report | December 13th, 2025: Inside Japan’s Biggest Military Shift Since World War Two & Iran’s Student Uprising

Summary

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The President's Daily Brief Situation Report – December 13, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Mike Baker delivers an in-depth analysis of two major unfolding global events: Japan’s largest military shift since WWII in response to regional threats from Chinaand Iran's surging student-led resistance under mounting regime pressure. Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery provides expert commentary on Japan’s defense escalation and China’s regional ambitions, while Iranian-American scholar and human rights advocate Dr. Ramesh Separad shares insights into Iran’s youth protests and internal dissent.

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Segment 1: Japan’s Transformation — Major Military Expansion in the Shadow of China

[01:11–11:28 & 14:53–27:19]

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Japan’s Historic Military Build-up

• Backdrop: In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and escalating tensions with China, Japan is dramatically expanding its military—the largest shift since WWII.

  • Details: New missile batteries, radar systems, electronic warfare units, ammunition depots, and a significant US-Japan F-35 base are being developed across strategic islands near Taiwan.

• Expert Analysis (Ret. Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery):

  • “Japan is undertaking its largest military buildup since World War II... a sweeping transformation across the entire Ryukyu chain." [02:20]

2. The Taiwan Factor—Why Tokyo Views China as Existential Threat

• Strategic Rationale: Japan considers any forced Chinese reunification of Taiwan as an existential risk, not just for Taiwan but for Japan's own security and sovereignty.
  • Montgomery: “A Chinese attack on Taiwan is an existential threat to the security of Japan.” [03:56]
• Losing Taiwan would shatter US-Japan security guarantees and invite Chinese hegemony over Japan and Korea.

3. US Policy & Strategic Ambiguity

• The US commitment to Taiwan remains ambiguous compared to defense treaties with Japan and Korea.

  • Montgomery: “The President just put a national security strategy out... we will not allow China to coerce Taiwan... But the kind of removal of China being listed as a security adversary... makes Taiwan nervous.” [06:36]

• The current administration’s unpredictability and previous approaches (“strategic ambiguity" vs. "strategic unpredictability") are debated, including potential responses in the event of a Chinese move on Taiwan.

  • Quote: “President Trump practices more a form of strategic unpredictability... he kind of preserves some deterrence... Anyone who tells you they know the answer to that... probably doesn’t know what they’re talking about.” — Montgomery [08:22]

4. The New 21st Century Threats

• Beyond invasion, "most likely scenarios" might include China’s use of cyber enabled economic warfare, disinformation, and “fake military feints” to erode societal resilience in Taiwan—an area where both Taiwan and the US are vulnerable. [10:22]
• Both experts concur: “That type of war is already underway... perhaps we just don’t see it.” — Baker [11:28]

5. Japan’s Growing Defense Capabilities

• Triggered by Ukraine, Japan resolved to break from its defense-spending cap, with major increases toward missiles, aircraft, and interoperable US technology.
  • “Here’s the most efficient country in the world outside of Israel beginning to really expend more money on equipment... That's got China a little nervous because they also have geographic proximity.” — Montgomery [15:26]
• Japan is acquiring Tomahawk missiles, F-35s, and expanding capacities to send a direct deterrent signal to China and bolster regional integration with US forces.

6. China’s Reaction: Aggressive, Bullying, and Nuclear Rhetoric

• China has responded with threats and personal attacks at Japanese leaders, reflecting a longstanding pattern of bullying all but the US.
  • Montgomery: "China is a bully. When they see a country is smaller than them... they bully them. That is their MO.” [18:50]
• "What Japan is buying with this is F35 fifth generation aircraft... things that can hit China. So, you know, this is all a strong deterrent signal from Japan. Don’t mess with us, don’t mess with the United States, and don’t mess with Taiwan." [18:50]

7. US-Japan Military Integration

• Japanese and US forces are moving toward unprecedented operational integration, especially in naval power and joint exercises.
  • "The most integrated navies in the world are the US Navy and the Japanese Navy... In every military area, they’re moving from deconflicted to coordinated to integrated." [20:24]

8. China-Russia Military Tech Exchange

• China’s support for Russia in Ukraine has been pivotal: backing its economy and reportedly sharing tech for quieter submarines and airborne assault operations.
  • “If true, these would be significant issues that make it more challenging for Taiwan or the United States to fight China.” [22:08]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "Taiwan is the canary in the coal mine. If it goes down, we’re going to have to come to grips with a regional hegemonic Chinese power." — Montgomery [04:17]
• “Japan’s F35s... their own indigenous, locally produced strike weapons, things that can hit China. A strong deterrent signal from Japan.” — Montgomery [18:50]
• “With a president that is intentionally unpredictable, I think he revels in it.” — Montgomery [08:22]

Timestamps

• [01:11] Japan’s military buildup overview
• [02:56] Adm. Mark Montgomery joins on implications for Taiwan/China
• [06:36] US policy ambiguity and future scenarios
• [15:26] Japan’s spending, strategic changes after Ukraine
• [18:50] China bullying/threats, Japan’s hardening stance
• [20:24] US-Japan military integration
• [22:08] China-Russia technology exchange

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Segment 2: Iran’s Youth-Led Uprising Amid Regime Crisis

[29:22–56:15]

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalating Unrest and the Role of Iran’s Youth & Students

• Iran faces “a very combustible situation”: economic hardship, regime legitimacy crisis, and a catastrophic water shortage.
• Students and youth are prominent in frontline protests despite extreme risk under the Islamic regime.
  • “Speaking out in Tehran today... can mean arrest, torture, disappearance or death. Yet they continue. Their resistance has become one of the clearest signs that Iran’s youth are awakening.” — Baker [29:22]

2. The Evolving Resistance Network

• Dr. Ramesh Separad: “The movement inside Iran... has a very clear and core message for the international community that Iran is no longer a question of reform or diplomacy, but of who really holds the legitimate power: the people of Iran.” [30:54]
• The student-led movement is now linked to a national “network of resistance units”—local, coordinated, and increasingly sophisticated.
  • “They have a tremendous support from the public... an organized uprising, a resistance unit network inside Iran, with a clear transition plan.” [32:40]

3. Regime Weakness, Succession, and Public Legitimacy

• The regime is described as “extremely weak”; Supreme Leader Khamenei "is not able to get himself a successor in place, is not able to rally the troops."

  • “What is he afraid of? ... He’s afraid of the people.” — Separad [34:29]

• The regime’s Achilles heel is political legitimacy: repeated mass protests have shifted focus from economic grievances to outright calls for regime change.

  • Memorable Quote: "The issue of freedom has been the persistent conflict... economic protests quickly become a political demand and a push for a change of this regime." — Separad [37:11]

4. Protest Dynamics and Adaptation

• Protests are now more decentralized and agile, shifting from large public gatherings to networked flash protests and sectoral unrest (e.g., among teachers, workers, retirees).
  • “Instead of having a major nationwide uprising, [the resistance] is networking across multiple cities... In 2017, the protest started in the city of Mashad, and within hours, the same slogans were heard in south Iran.” — Separad [45:10]

5. Can Change Happen Without Violence?

• "The IRGC and the mullahs know there is an explosive socio-economic condition and a political player that has been persistent... The next trigger can really create that nationwide uprising faster than anyone can predict." — Separad [47:49]
• The international community’s most important role is not intervention, but the recognition of the Iranian people’s right to overthrow the regime.

6. Economic Crises & Environmental Catastrophe

• Economic Hardship: The rial has collapsed, ordinary citizens are desperate, and “mafia-style governance” by the IRGC and corruption mean “there is no solution coming from this regime.” [49:36]
• Water Crisis: Decades of environmental mismanagement and IRGC corruption have left Tehran on the brink of running dry.
  • “Years of mismanagement... brought us to this conversation around moving the capital. That’s just not feasible.” — Separad [51:38]

7. Succession & Future Outlook

• Khamenei is ill, his grooming plans have failed, and internal regime infighting undermines stability.
  • “The death of Khamenei itself could be a trigger for the next nationwide uprising. But I actually think that will come sooner.” — Separad [53:01]
• The opposition is ready: organized, connected with the expatriate parliament-in-exile, and supported by the US Congress and European parliamentarians.

8. Hope and Resilience

• Notable moment: “Who gives me hope is the women of Iran, is the youth of Iran and those who are fighting for democracy and freedom. They are my source of inspiration.” — Separad [55:43]

Timestamps

• [29:22] Setting the stage—unrest, water crisis, student role
• [30:23] Dr. Separad joins: youth front, organized resistance
• [34:29] Regime weakness and legitimacy crisis
• [36:36] What drives dissent—freedom over economics
• [39:49] Protest evolution, flash protests, sectoral strikes
• [45:10] Resistance tactics and regime adaptation
• [47:49] Can the uprising succeed peacefully?
• [49:36] Economic and environmental crises in Iran
• [51:38] Water crisis details, regime mismanagement
• [53:01] Regime succession and looming change
• [55:43] What drives hope for Iran's advocates

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Notable Quotes – Quick Reference

• On Japan:

  • “A Chinese attack on Taiwan is an existential threat to the security of Japan.” — Montgomery [03:56]
  • “President Trump practices strategic unpredictability... anyone who tells you they know what he’d do… probably doesn’t know what they’re talking about.” — Montgomery [08:22]

• On Iran:

  • “Iran is no longer a question of reform or diplomacy, but of who really holds the legitimate power: the people of Iran.” — Separad [30:54]
  • “The issue of freedom has been the persistent conflict... economic protests quickly become a political demand and a push for a change of this regime.” — Separad [37:11]
  • “Who gives me hope is the women of Iran, is the youth of Iran and those who are fighting for democracy and freedom. They are my source of inspiration.” — Separad [55:43]

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Tone & Language

• The discussion is frank, direct, occasionally somber but infused with realism and cautious optimism. Both segments feature authoritative, clear-eyed analysis with memorable, personal asides.

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Summary Takeaways

• Japan: Takes unprecedented, rapid steps to deter China as US ambiguity and regional instability grow. Integration with US forces is deepening, and Japan is delivering strong deterrent messages with action and equipment.
• Iran: Student and youth demonstrations, alongside an expanding resistance network, pose a formidable challenge to a regime weakened by legitimacy crises, economic failure, and environmental disaster. Change, say advocates, is looming, and the world’s focus should be on supporting Iranian people’s self-determination.

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Transcript

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Welcome to the PDP Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Japan's largest military buildup since World War II is now underway. New reporting shows a sweeping expansion of missile sites, radar systems and a major U. S Japan F35 base across islands near Taiwan. Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery joins us for more on those developments later in the show. Iran's students are stepping into a dangerous spotlight as unrest builds across the country. We'll be joined by Iranian American scholar and human rights advocate Dr. Ramesh Separad for more on that. But first, today's Situation report. Spotlight Japan is undertaking its largest military buildup Since World War II and the scale is far bigger than what we reported just last month. Back then, we reported that Tokyo was preparing to place a surface to air missile unit on Yonaguni. That's a tiny island just 68 miles from Taiwan. Now new reporting shows a sweeping transformation across the entire Ryukyu chain. That's a long arc of islands and running from Japan's main homeland down toward Taiwan. Tokyo is adding missile batteries, radar sites, electronic warfare units and ammunition depots while also building a massive new US Japan F35 training base on Magashima. So you ask, what does this massive military buildup mean for the region and the growing tensions between China and Japan? Joining us to break this down is retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, senior fellow at the foundation for the Defense of Democracy. Sir, thank you very much for coming back on THE SITUATION report.

[C]

Well, thank you for having me, Mike.

[A]

Let's take a look at this situation. Are we we about to watch a war break out between China and Japan?

[C]

No, but China is definitely trying to, you know, flex that. They're a big country and Japan's a medium sized country. And I try to hold them accountable. Look, China's worry, China worries about can we take Taiwan, coerce Taiwan into rejoining us on their own. One of the things they know makes it harder is if allies and partners of Taiwan demonstrate a willingness to fight along, you know, to fight alongside Taiwan. So that's why they criticize the United States every time we do an arm sale to Taiwan. They criticize us every time we have a major exercise with the Taiwan forces, which is infrequent. Similarly, the Japanese prime minister said out loud what many Japanese senior leaders since Prime Minister Abe left office, you know, some five years, six years ago, she said out loud what they all said in private, which is that a Chinese attack on Taiwan is an existential threat to the security of Japan.

[A]

Explain to our viewers, if you could, what's the thinking behind that? Why do they view it that way?

[C]

I think the Japanese understand that if China were to successfully reintegrate Taiwan coercively, in other words, there was a failure of the United States to respond under the Taiwan Relations act, or we responded too late or we had initial casualties and we backed off. Whatever the reason, if there was some kind of Chinese success that the rest of Northeast China would then look at Japan and Korea as future vassal states, they would extend their umbrella of their perceived hegemonic or regional power umbrella to include those two countries. Right now, they clearly fall under the US Security umbrella with actual treaties between US And Japan and between us and Korea, that we would defend you against any attack. And their economic security, they align with their national security. So with the United States, both countries have very aggressive direct investment and trade policies towards the United States, in other words, to make sure they keep us entangled with them. And President Trump has amplified that with his trade negotiations, really pushing foreign direct investment by those two countries, Japan and Korea in the United States. So the whole idea is we're aggressively entangled, but if the security arrangement falls apart because we're no longer reliable credible ally because we allow Taiwan to fall. So that's how Japan looks at it, like the Taiwan is the kind of canary in the coal Mine, if it goes down, we're going to have to come to grips with a regional, hegemonic Chinese power.

[A]

Our agreement with Taiwan is not the same as our agreements with Japan and South Korea. And so it seems like this is a problem from the start. And I realize I'm about to ask it a highly speculative question, but if it's an aggressive move on Taiwan, what do you imagine a U.S. administration? Whether it's this one next, whichever, it doesn't matter, I suppose. But what would the U.S. administration response be?

[C]

That's the $64,000 question. And I'll tell you, the President just put a national security strategy out and it kind of had a good news, bad news kind of situation for Taiwan. The good news was, and very clearly stated in print, something we don't normally do, that we will not allow China to coerce Taiwan into a, into a different solution, into some kind of integration, and that the United States will maintain sufficient military power to make sure that doesn't happen. That's the good news. That's the good times, the worst of times. Part of the national security strategy was the kind of removal of China being listed as a security adversary. You know, and I think the Treasury Secretary had a lot to do with that. And, and you can even see it as you read the document. There's, there's clearly like, who are they talking about here? I think they're talking about China, but the word China has been removed. And then in an area I look at a lot cybersecurity. China has been running this massive cybersecurity effort against us called Volt Typhoon. You know, preparing the battlefield in our country, in our global infrastructures, and we don't even mention it in a 33 page document about threats to the United States. So I say Taiwan is nervous. You know, I have a son over there on a U.S. navy ship. You know, when I talk with him, you know, he and his shipmates expect that they'll be part of a crisis or war that breaks out there, because that's how our Department of Defense views the Taiwan Relations Act. So we're training and building a military to be ready to respond. But, you know, you kind of hit it in your question. Will the President make the decision to do it? And that is a uniquely presidential decision.

[A]

What do you think? You've got a lot of experience, sir. What do you think?

[C]

Look, Joe Biden four times said, I'll fight for Taiwan. And four times his national security adviser the next morning, you did not hear him say that. You know, we're back to, you know, what they called strategic ambiguity. You know, that maybe we will, maybe we won't. I think President Trump practices something different than strategic ambiguity. He practices, you know, he practices more a form of strategic unpredictability. You don't know what he's going to do and I think in doing so he kind of preserves some deterrence. Would he really pull the trigger? Only if Taiwan were doing really well. Because what we Learned in the 12 day war between Israel and Iran is three or four days into it, Israel was doing very well, the President's right next to Net Yahoo with a thumbs up and you know, seven days later we were doing something we never ever thought we'd do. Dropping massive ordinance penetrators on the Fordow nuclear enterprise. So from, from my view, it's not known, but it's not strategic ambiguity, it's more strategic unpredictability. With a president that is intentionally unpredictable, I think he revels in it. So it'd be anyone who tells you I know the answer to that is, and he's not named Donald Trump Senior, it's probably doesn't know what he's talking about.

[A]

Yeah, I'm 100% in agreement with that. Look, if I was Xi Jinping, I would just, you know, ride this one out, meaning this administration. Because under the theory that whatever comes next, you know, you can, you could put money on it and say, okay, it's likely to be a change. Just the way our politics work here and the Chinese regime and their intel operators spend a lot of time gaming out what happens in US Politics because it impacts their, their planning. You could argue that, you know, the window, you know, opens when Trump leaves office because for that very reason that you stated he's unpredictable.

[C]

Yeah, 100%. I think like the cross strait invasion, kind of the really big war, what we call the most dangerous scenario, for sure that's in the future. What I worry about is there's another kind of game China can play called the most likely scenario, which is cyber enabled economic warfare where they use cyber tools, disinformation, economic tools, diplomatic tools, fake military feints, not attacks to pressure the, the Taiwan society and try to break societal resilience in Taiwan. And they had not previously had not done a great job building that up. They're working really hard on it now. We're trying to help them. By the way, we're vulnerable to this, that kind of attack. I think you're, I'm going to give you almost the same time frame, late 2027, early 2028, when Taiwan's having its next election, to try to increase the pressure to drive to ensure that the current president, who China does not like, Chin Tay, to ensure that President Light Jinte does not get in, does not win a second term.

[A]

I would move up that time frame, sir, and I'd like to pick up on this after the break, but I would argue that phase of the war, or however we want to describe it, that type of war is already underway and. And the Chinese regime is engaged in that war that you describe already. Perhaps we just don't, you know, or the White House just doesn't see it. I'm not sure. But, sir, if you could stay right where you are. We do need to take a quick break and then we'll be back with more from Adam Montgomery right here on the situation report. Please stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, PDB listeners know that I'm constantly traveling, right? So I guess I've become a bit of an expert on airports and luggage. And I want to tell you about a great company out there designing and selling incredible luggage. It's Noble Travel. That's no B L. Noble Travel. Okay, let me give you a scenario. Picture this, if you will. You're in the line at airport security. There's a happy place, isn't it? You got a cup of coffee in your hands, but it's sloshing all over the place. Your phone is dying. You're digging for your laptop because you.

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Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again is retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, senior fellow at the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Sir, thank you very much for sticking around. We started off our conversation earlier by highlighting the tensions that have been building between China and Japan. Could you talk a bit about Japan's buildup, what they're doing currently that has gotten the Chinese regime so riled up?

[C]

Yeah, you know, there's a big change going on after the Russian illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Japan kind of had a wake up call that, hey, authoritarians might actually do what they say and they might put people at risk. And in addition to the Taiwan issue and some issues in the South China Sea that Japan is interested in, Japan and China have a significant disagreement over a set of islands called the Senkaku Islands that Japan holds and China claims. And China's basic premise is if we've ever held anything and have a claim to it, we're taking it back between now and 2049. So. But all of a sudden Japan got this wake up call. Now, historically, by their constitution, they only spent 1% of gross domestic product on Defense. Now they hit it, they really spent about 1.5%. I won't get into all of it, but they suppress it to have a good defense. And I will tell you, outside of Israel, Japan had the most effective defense spending of any of our allies and partners, and certainly much more effective than anyone in Europe or the United States. What they got previously for about $45 to $50 billion a year was fantastic. Now what's happening now is they're cranking up their defense spending. They just announced that next year's will be, they'll hit 2% of GDP with $60 billion and further increases over the next four years. And they're headed up to that, I think eventually that, you know, that NATO standard of 3.5%. And in addition, they definitely spend the 1.5% on critical infrastructure associated with like military mobility, you know, rail systems, aviation system, port systems. So they're, they're coming up. And so here's the most efficient country in the world outside of Israel, beginning to really expend more money on equipment. That's got China a little nervous because they also have geographic proximity. Obviously their weapons are 100% in theater all the time. They don't leave. Whereas with the United States, we may spend 900 billion, but we keep 90% of our weapons outside of the Western Pacific at any one time. We only keep about 10% of our military for, deployed in the Western Pacific for the Asia Pacific crises, either Ford stationed or Ford deployed. So that 50, that 50 billion go to 60 billion, go to 70 billion, go to 80 billion, it's going to leave a mark on Chinese ability to conduct military operations. So that's another reason they have beef with Japan's actions over the last year and a half.

[A]

That's really interesting. And I think, I guess it speaks in part to what you talked about earlier, where, you know, China gets concerned anytime allies do anything that indicates security for Taiwan or alliance with Taiwan, which this certainly implies because they're tying that defense spending, it seems, into their concerns that Taiwan may be in conflict at some point here in the near future. So, and I suppose if you tie that in with, as you mentioned, the Prime Minister's comments that she made talking about an existential threat if China takes Taiwan in an aggressive manner, that all starts to make sense. But the regime, the Chinese regime, certainly under Xi Jinping in the Foreign Ministry, they've, they've come out swinging, right? I mean, I, I believe they even made a nuclear threat to Japan and.

[C]

And they personal, you know, comments about bringing her by her neck and things like that, you know, very, you know, just unprofessional. It's how China is. China is a bully. And when they see a country is smaller than them and they see everyone is smaller than them except the United States, they bullied them. That is their mo. It's been their MO for over a decade now. And so I expect it to continue. And they should be nervous. By the way. I should have said, you know, what Japan is buying with this is F35, fifth generation aircraft, the refueling aircraft that will help US and Japanese aircraft conduct operations. Long range strike missiles, Tomahawks, several hundred of them getting delivered soon. Their own indigenous, locally produced strike weapons, things that can hit China. So, you know, this is all a strong deterrent signal from Japan. Don't mess with us, don't mess with the United States and don't mess with Taiwan. And I think that's a good strong signal for them to be sending because it amplifies our signal because of their geographic proximity.

[A]

And it seems like it's not. I mean, obviously they're allocating in their budget, but it's more than theoretical at this point. It seems like it's operational. They're actually placing missile batteries in that archipelago that stretches all the way down in Japan's island chain. I understand, and correct me if I'm wrong, are they building an air base on one of Those islands for F35s?

[C]

They're moving. They're building more and more military infrastructure farther and farther south along the Ryukus, that southern island chain that extends towards China. Clearly only one really extends towards Taiwan. But then China, only one adversary that's not about North Korea, that's not about Russia, that's about China. And the Japanese do a great job hosting us as well. They host our nate. They pay for our navy, air force and army to operate out of their country. They and the Koreans both do what's called post nation payments, but they take advantage of that too. They integrate and exercise with us. And at this point in time, the most integrated navies in the world are the US Navy and the Japanese Navy. Next is probably the US and the British and the US and the Australian. The Japanese have driven themselves up there. The air forces, I still think a couple of, you know, the UK Air Forces, Royal Air Forces probably still tighter with us in the Canadian Air Force, but their Air force is working the way up the chain. And every military area they're becoming, they've moved from deconflicted to coordinated to integrated. So. And that's important because when you're confronting someone like China, you want your two plus Japan's two to equal five. You know, you wanted to amplify each other and, and enable each other, and that's what we're getting. And boy, do they buy a ton of American stuff. You know, they spend a lot of that defense budget in the United States buying Aegis ships, F35s, air to air weapons, all the stuff, expensive stuff, that's best in the world.

[A]

Shifting gears just a little bit, how would you describe and how concerned are you about the China, Russia relationship?

[C]

This is one of the untold stories of the Russia, Ukraine war. So when you think about the Russia, Ukraine war, we all say, well, they're fighting, Ukraine's fighting four countries, North Korea, Iran and China. The North Korea one, everyone saw like 10,000 troops were in the Kursk campaign and they've given a ton of munitions. Iran gave them those shahed drones and there's now a drone factory. It's called Giran now. But in Russia, with that Iranian drone being fired, 3, 400 a night into Kiev and other areas. But the real supporter of Russia has been China. They have backstopped the Russian economy. Increased trade, you know, imports and exports, more than 30% increased investment. And they've provided the microelectronics to build more cruise ballistic and hypersonic missiles. So they've helped them operationally, they've helped them strategically. And now here's the kicker. What's Russia done back for China? And we've heard two rumors. The first is they help them with submarine quieting technology. And I got to tell you, that hurts the US because we are the quietest navy in the world. Our submarines are agreed by everyone to be the true fifth generation submarines. Up there, no one's close, but the Russians are probably the next closest right after you, after us. It drops out of the Russians. The Chinese were very noisy and if they can be made quieter by Russia technology, that would hurt. And the second thing they've given them is the technology for airborne assaults with helicopters, both the equipment and the training to do it. That's part of that cross strait invasion. It's not just ships coming across the strait, it's an airborne assault as well. So from my perspective, those are two pretty big technological quid pro quos. Back to China. If true, these are both rumor, but if true, this would be a significant issue that makes it more challenging for Taiwan or the United States to fight China.

[A]

Yeah, it is. I mean there's, there's all sorts of reporting that's been out there talking about, you know, how a cross strait invasion would occur and, and you know, how the Chinese military would, you know, pull into service sort of their civilian fleet, their barges or ferries. It's a, it's a fascinating situation, you know, to try to game out something else that, that I find very interesting. And I, it's not really a question, I'm just kind of looking for comment. But the, the Chinese, they're, they're, in a way, you have to, and I don't want to say admire, but they always do what's in their best interest.

[C]

Right.

[A]

And they're, they're shameless about it. Whatever is in their best interest. I mean, every nation theoretically does that. The US Apologizes constantly because we're doing something in the US Best interest. But the Chinese are selling some of the key components for drones. They make some of the blades and some of the technology within the drones that are used in the Ukraine conflict and they're selling them to both sides. Right. So both Ukraine and Russia purchased this, these components from, from China. And now there's, there's, this is interesting. We're covering this on the pdb. I'm just throwing this out there to show, I guess how bizarre the world is. But there's lawsuits now taking place down in Texas against some US Chip manufacturers because US Chips are, have been found for the past couple of years in Russian missile remnants and drones. And so despite the sanctions over the past couple of years, the Russian military is still finding a way to get their hands on US Components to include in their gear. Again, not a question, just a conversation.

[C]

You're right on all those points though, I'll tell you, in fact, I don't know if you remember, but the very beginning of the war, one of the things the Russians did when they seized land was take all the modern dishwashers and washing machines so they could grab the microelectronics out of them because there was some similarity between those, some of the chips in those, the chips that were in weapons systems. So the propensity for dual use technology in this world is pretty big. And I will say, I think China does intentionally provide, provide drones to the Ukrainians. And Ukrainian drones cause 82% of Russian casualties. So, and I think they allow them. They say there's a ban, but they're clearly showing up. I spend a lot of time in Ukraine with their forces and there's a lot of, a number of their drones still have Chinese, significant numbers of Chinese parts in it. I think The Chinese kind of do it to bleed the Russians a little. I mean, this war is going great for them. America is distracted, Europe is distracted and breaking apart, and Russia's bleeding out. Who's the winner? China.

[A]

Yeah, it's a great, it's a great point. And it doesn't get brought up on often enough. Look, I really appreciate you taking the time. I know you've been traveling and yet you've carved out a bit of time to join us here on THE SITUATION report. Admiral Mark Montgomery, as always, thank you very much for joining us today, sharing your insights. I look forward to the next conversation.

[C]

Hey, thanks for having me. It was a great conversation.

[A]

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[A]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation report. We have been tracking a very combustible situation inside Iran. It's a mix of economic strain, political unrest, and even a massive water shortage in Tehran that has left the Islamic regime on edge. One piece of this story that we want to highlight is the role of Iran's students, the youth movement. Students are once again on the front lines protesting even as the regime grows more anxious and more violent. Now, speaking out in Tehran today, of course, can mean arrest, torture, disappearance or death. Yet they continue. Their resistance has become one of the clearest signs that Iran's youth are awakening. And the regime, well, they're acting like they, they know it. Joining us now is chair of the advisory board of the Organization of Iranian American communities, Dr. Ramesh separat. She's a leading Iranian American scholar, author and human rights advocate. Doctor, thank you very much for taking the time to join us here on THE Situation report.

[B]

It's a pleasure to be with you. Thanks for having me, of course.

[A]

Well, let's, let's start this a lot of questions here to toss your way, but let's start with a very sort of general one. If we could describe the, the extent of the dissent that you're currently seeing and, and by that, not just within the student and the youth movement, but elsewhere within Iran at the present time.

[B]

Yes, I think the movement inside Iran, Movement for a Free Iran, has really made the question and has a very clear and a core message for the international community that Iran is no longer a question of reform or diplomacy, but it is a question of who really holds the legitimate power, which is the people of Iran. If you look at the waves of nationwide uprising since 2017, there's been a number of massive uprising across Iran. And what's really in common among all of these uprisings and protests is calling to end the regime with the slogans of down to the supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and call for freedom, call for democracy and call for a free and a republic Iran, where it is no longer a question of if we want to change Iran, it's going to be a restoration back to a monarchy, but moving forward where the people of Iran hold that power going forward. So obviously, the regime has not been sitting idle. They have been executing people, they have been arresting people, trying to really resort back to all of the fear factors and intimidation tactics, but they have not been able to really disempower this growing movement for change. And obviously, youth and women have a very critical and essential role to this change. But what's really Emerging over the past several years is this notion of the network of resistance units. And it is a, a network that is coordinated, that is orchestrating efforts, that is organized and is very clear on how and why they target the regime. And they have a tremendous support from the public. So I think Iran's Free Iran movement has really evolved to a point with clarity, with a clear network and also a message for the world that when we thinking about a change in Iran, Iranian people are not looking for a foreign military intervention. They are not looking for funding or weapons or troops on the ground. And they're not looking for a puppet regime that can be imported from an external power. But what they have instead is an organized uprising. What they have instead is a resistance unit network inside Iran with a clear and a time bound transition plan with the broader exile coalition of the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

[A]

But now with, with the, the grip on power that the Mullahs and, and the IRGC have demonstrated over the years in your estimation, and I realize this is a tough question because obviously you're subjective. I mean anybody who wants a free Iran and what's best for the citizens of Iran, it's going to be subjective. But to what degree can get something internal?

[C]

Right.

[A]

Without any external impact, assistance or influence, to what degree can the dissent within Iran result in a change in government? Because I got to tell you, the Mullahs and the IRGC have shown an amazing ability to, to, to, to avoid that problem.

[B]

Yes, and I think you're absolutely right. IRGC is a terrorist organization and they provide funding and training and guidance to the proxy groups in the region. But if you look at the events across the Middle east, you can really see the indicators of the weakening of power and even the influence of IRGC across the board. Obviously the events in the region has, and the 12 day war that took place against the regime and its player during summer has had its impact. But what I argue for is the real impact, the real force that would bring this regime down and bring about democracy and freedom in Iran is in the hand of the Iranian people. And I think that's what we really have to pay attention to. The fact of the matter is that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is extremely weak. He is not able to get himself a successor in place. He is not able to really rally the troops. Even internally. If you think about it, since the 12 Day War, Khamenei has not been public. He's still on the ground. And the question is, what is he afraid of? It's not because he's afraid of the foreign war, is because he's afraid of the people. He understands where the movement and where the momentum of change, the real change is, is not in the missiles that's going to target the regime's official, but it is in the hands of the Iranian people. So on the other hand.

[A]

So if. I'm sorry for interrupting you, Doctor, I apologize, but you've said some very interesting things here and I don't want to. Well, I guess I do want to play devil's advocate here because, you know, there's been a. It's been a fairly long history ever since the existence of the. Of the current regime, of anticipation or of hope that there will be an internal uprising.

[C]

Right.

[A]

That sets. I agree with you 100%. That's the way for things to change there. Right. Is for the people to take that up into their own hands. Let me back off of that just for a second and ask you if you can. Can you quantify what causes. This is going to be a very odd, simplistic question, but what causes the most dissent? Is it the economy? Is it the lack of freedoms? What has resonated the most with. Let's look at the youths first. What's resonating most with them?

[B]

I think the core point of a conflict with the regime in Tehran between the people and the regime in power is the issue of freedom. The issue of freedom has been persistent conflict between this regime and the public. If you look at during the 1980s, the Iranian regime really thought through mass execution, mass arrests and trying to really pushed the dissent and silenced the dissent, but the movement continued. If you look at the National Council of Resistance in Iran, even though they moved to exile, but they continue to expose the regime, they continue to use all their power within, inside the country and through their network to raise awareness for freedom and democracy. Then you fast forward in the 1990s, regime resorted to terrorist activities, even assassinations abroad, and then to where we are since 2000. So regime has faced several crisis. One crisis is the crisis of legitimacy because this is not a regime that is able to meet the demand of its citizen, which is really giving the rights and the freedoms to the Iranian people. Two is they're also facing economic crisis, they're facing environmental crisis. But I think what really would be the Achilles heel for this regime is the political legitimacy. They lack political legitimacy when people go to the streets time and time again. And it's not just in the last several years, but it's also happening since in the last Four decades is when they sit down with the dictators, down with the ayatollahs. We want freedom and the Iranian people are willing to give up their lives and, and, and paid the price. Describe lives to obtain that freedom.

[A]

Can you describe what those protests look like? Because again, they, you know, the IRGC and the regime has been fairly adept at, at limiting the news that comes out, and, and I know that's a big struggle, right, is to get the word out to the rest of the world as to what's happening. But what do those protests look like? Because from, from, from our perspective, it seems like over the years, anytime there is what appears to be growing movement on the streets, it fizzles out under the intimate intimidation and violence from the regime. So, so at this present time, how would you describe the level of dissent that gets out onto the streets in a visible protest?

[B]

I think the protest, obviously the news doesn't come out and there is definitely an issue of censorship. But I think the protests that, for example, took place in 2017, where it was in 2018 and 2019, all the way to 2022, if you look at what really sparked the protest, even though it started with the economic grievances over the price of eggs, over the price of gasoline, or over the killing of the innocent girl Mahsa Amini, the Kurdish girl Mahsa Amini in 2022, I think what's really in common among all of these protests is the fact that the issue, the first slogan that starts with economic grievances quickly becomes a political demand and a push for a change of this regime. So that momentum, even though we're not seeing daily protests like the way we saw it in 2022, but that momentum hasn't gone away. One of the things that the international community should really pay and the media should really pay attention to how those protests have evolved in light of the suppression, in light of the execution and the fear mongering by the irgc. I think that is the key element of what would happen. And I think in my opinion, based on my studies of what's happening on the ground, Iran is in a very revolutionary, ready state. And we're just, even the regime's official are admitting that we are one protest, one nationwide protest away from facing the downfall. So I think more than anyone, the Iranian regime really understands where its weaknesses and as I said, Achilles Hill is. And I think that's why when you see how they engage with the international community, they try to limit the dialogue and discussion to nuclear power or nuclear threat. They try to limit the conversation to conflicts with Israel or regional powers, but where the real conflict is between this regime and the people of Iran. And that's where we need to pay attention to. Now, you asked me obviously, doctor, if I could.

[A]

Again, I apologize. I keep interrupting you and I sorry for doing that. But being mindful of our time, we do have to take a quick break. Okay? So if you could stay right where you are. Please. Don't go anywhere. We've got a lot more questions for Dr. Ramesh. Separate and we'll be right back here on the PDB situation report. Stay around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, we've all seen those scary ads. You know the ones I'm talking about about owing money to the irs, Right? Trying to frighten you into calling. Well, let me tell you about a different kind of business. They're called Tax Relief Advocates. And listen, if you owe the IRS, whether it's $5,000 or $50,000 or $500,000, TRN tax relief advocates as solutions to help resolve your tax problems. And the good news is that you can get help anytime by visiting tra.com how simple is that? And TRA could reduce or even eliminate what you owe. Their team is passionate about helping individuals and businesses fix IRS issues. May have over 1,000 five star reviews on Google and an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau. Look, you no longer need to be afraid of the irs. Generous programs are available to give you a fresh start. So end your tax troubles today by visiting tra.com that's tra.com tax relief advocates real solutions for real people at Capella University. Learning online doesn't mean learning alone. You'll get support from people who care.

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[A]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again is chair of the advisory board of the Organization of Iranian American communities, Dr. Ramesh separat. Doctor, thank you for sticking around. I want to pick up on something that you said during the previous segment. You mentioned that the protests have evolved over time. What do you mean by that?

[B]

Well, you know when you saw the protests that took place and I'm going to even go back to 2009 over the election fraud, then fast forward to 2017 which was food price, 2019, fuel price and then the murder of Mahsa Amini. What the public experienced in the nationwide uprising was mass arrest, public torture, public execution and massive execution where protesters were facing death. Now the resistance units inside Iran are becoming more and more sophisticated and are trying to evade and work around instead of having major and nationwide uprising, the networking across multiple cities. I give you one example. In 2017 the protest started in the city of Mashad and within hours the same slogans which is in north west of Iran, northeast of Iran. Within hours the same slogans were actually heard in south of Iran. So that really demonstrated the strength of the resistance unit. So you take that capability and resiliency and evolve it. And now they are helping with the retired community in Iran. Every time they go in the streets and protest, it is no longer where is our unpaid wages as a slogan. They're saying we want this regime gone. We see the same thing with labor movement. We see the same thing with teachers, nurses, the union. So this networking, this underground solidarity that we see, it's happening, it's really forging a very difficult is forging a very strong united front against this regime that is making it difficult for the regime to resort back to its fear mongering tactics to push back on the public. And that's why I think.

[A]

But where does that go? I mean if, I'm sorry, I take your point that it's becoming more sophisticated, that the resistance itself is becoming more coordinated, better at communicating amongst themselves. But can they, and this is going to again be an odd question, but can they succeed without a violent internal uprising? Because I don't see the mullahs and the IRGC willingly Giving in to the people without, you know, something drastic.

[B]

IRGC and the mullahs know that there is an explosive socioeconomic conditions and a political player that has been persistent in the streets of Iran, which is the resistance network. That resistance network is connected to Iran's largest opposition, the mek, who is a member of a broader political organization which is a parliament in exile of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. How all of these, the next trigger can really create that nationwide uprising faster than anyone can predict or even much deeper than the previous cycles. But where I think the international community can play a role is to really recognize to your question, to their very specific question that you just asked, is to recognize the rights of the Iranian people to overthrow this regime. However means that may come about, we must stand with the Iranian people. And that's why when you look at the bipartisan House resolutions that have been passed over the last five congresses, it has been always siding with the Iranian people and supporting their call for change. And I think this is now what we're experiencing and what we're seeing. So what I would say is ending of the appeasement of this regime. Really understanding how this regime has been delegitimized can work hand in hand to trigger this next wave of uprising. But all of these synergies would come together to bring this regime down. That's how I see this coming to head.

[A]

Okay, objectively, to the degree that you can, how would you describe the current economic conditions inside Iran?

[B]

I mean, if you look at the value of the rial, that value against the dollar that is constantly going down and the Iranian people are constantly average Iranian is constantly very insecure about the future. If you look at the price of goods and the protests over the cost of basic necessity, that causes an issue right now. Tehran, Iran's capital, is facing a massive environmental crisis and access to clean water and access to water which even Iran's president is now saying that we just don't have any solution for this. So I mean when you look at this regime's behavior, the mismanagement, the corruption, the mafia style governance by the irgc, their track record, it's so clear for these people that there is no solution coming from this regime. And that's why when I say there's an explosive socioeconomic conditions, it is really pressing this regime from all front. And of course the international community does have a role to play, which is let's continue to enforce the sanctions because we know the IRGC holds the economy and by enforcing the sanctions we are squeezing IRGC and, and thereby empowering the Iranian people to overthrow this regime.

[A]

It's interesting when you. But before I actually I was going to talk to you about the 12 Day War and its impact on the mentality of the regime. But before I do that, you mentioned the water crisis. We've talked about that before here on the pdb. Can you give us a current update? I mean, because they were talking in very dire terms, saying we may be out of water within a matter of a handful of weeks, I believe Pizzaski and was talking, the president was talking about possibly relocating the capital. So, you know, where are they at this point?

[B]

Again, this is years of mismanagement. I can tell you one of the core issues with water is how IRGC decided with the mismanagement and lack of knowledge and expertise, decided to reroute the natural waterways and thereby creating bare lands and creating problems that then become a flooding issue because of the way water flows. And the reason for them to do this, because of how they wanted to purchase certain piece of land and get the water in there and try to, through their mafia style, try to monopolize the access to the land and the water in that area. So years of experience and approaching the issue this way has now brought us to this conversation around where Pazyshkyan, in a ridiculous way is claiming that he wants to move the capital. And that's just not feasible. So, I mean, ultimately, when you think about it, this is not a regime that's ever worked for the people of Iran. This is not a regime that ever had the subject matter expertise or allow the people who have the subject matter expertise to do some good for the public and therefore they're now facing this water crisis, that the number one victim of it is the Iranian people.

[A]

Yeah. What do you think is going to happen with the succession issue? You mentioned that briefly earlier in our conversation. But if you had to, if you had to bet on what was going to happen, who takes over?

[B]

I don't think Khamenei, Iran's current supreme leader, who actually is ill, has a solution for this. He was grooming certain characters who are no longer part of the equation because they were killed. And now he is at loss. And there are a ton of theories around how he could perhaps appoint his own son, which within the Iranian public, they essentially make comments that how is this different than the previous monarchy when the reign of control gets passed on to their sons? So I think he's at a loss on what to do. But I think more importantly, Khamenei is also at loss because he has no way of really being able to control the internal factional fights that's happening today inside Iran. So all of that is public. Everyone and Iranian people are witnessing this. And that is why I think the regime's days are number and again for them to continue to create some sort of a regional conflict or try to distract the issue from denunciation of the Iranian public of this regime to some sort of a nuclear topic. All of these are the playbook that this regime has used in the past and is no longer effective going forward. So what I would say is the death of Khamenei itself could be a trigger for the next nationwide uprising. But I actually think that will come. I don't think Iranian people are going to wait for that move to take place. They are going to, when the situation is ripe, they are going to take two streets to bring this regime down. And the good news is what they have on their site is an organized resistance movement, is a network of resistance units that have evolved and international support from the U.S. congress and more than 3,000 parliamentarian members and the platform for change that is reflected in a 10 point plan by Mariam Rajavi. So I think when you put all of that together, every everything is in place for change in Iran.

[A]

Last question. Because I want to be mindful of your time, but doctor, do you ever get frustrated or do you just have the ability to remain perpetually hopeful?

[B]

You know, once I was asked how could you keep going in light of all these atrocities and crimes, my response has always been how could you not? Because at the end of the day, this is as an Iranian American, I care about the future of Iran. I care about the future of Iran and US Relationship. And this is what gives me hope. Who gives me hope is the women of Iran is the youth of Iran and those who are fighting for democracy and freedom. They are my source of inspiration.

[A]

Well, I tell you what, this has been a fascinating conversation and I hope that you'll be willing to come on back to THE Situation REPORT at some point in the near future so we can kind of explore this further. There's a lot here to dissect, but thank you, Dr. Ramesh Separad, for your time, for your insight and for your help. I gotta tell you, it's refreshing. Thank you again for joining us here on THE Situation report. Well, that is all the time we have for the PDB Situation report. If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com you know what we do every month? We all sit around the rather expensive conference table that we've got here at the secret lair of the pdb and we choose, you know, your comments, your questions, we mush them into what we call an ask me anything episode and we toss it out there for the viewers enjoyment. So keep the cards and letters coming. That's what I'm saying. To listen to the podcast of the show ad free. It's simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com and if you get the chance, don't forget to stop by and subscribe to our YouTube channel. That's a juggernaut. A number of my friends and family say it's the it's the best thing on YouTube. But give it a shot. It's at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker and until next time, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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