C (2:39)

Neill.

A (2:40)

He's also the founding partner of the Georgetown group. Eric, thanks very much for joining us here on the Situation report.

C (2:46)

Man, Mike, thanks for having me back on.

A (2:49)

Well, we've got a number of things to talk about. Let's start with this bomb plot in and around Southern California. What can you tell us about this?

C (3:00)

Well, it's a pretty amazing story. You have a group that calls themselves the Turtle Island Liberation Front, which comes from this idea that if you flip the map of the United States, it looks like a turtle, it looks like an island that looks like a turtle. And so the original indigenous name was Turtle island, which has no fact, no bearing in historical fact. And so that capitalism is bad and all of this ideology.

B (3:26)

Let me, let me interrupt you right there.

A (3:29)

How stoned do you think the guys were that came up with this name?

C (3:33)

It's, it's crazy. The whole thing is crazy. The plot is the thing that's scary. This idea that, you know, capitalism is bad and the United States is bad, and we stole it from indigenous people and so that we need to blow up buildings in Los Angeles in order to, to restore it. I don't know what their, their goal was other than absolute chaos. And that's what you see in many of these terrorist cells. But it shows, you know, the investigation, which was a class act by law enforcement and the FBI, shows that there was coordination, there was planning, and that they might have been able to pull this off if the FBI hadn't learned about the plot and surveilled and infiltrated and then caught them before they could build these pipe bombs.

A (4:15)

Do we know without giving up sources and methods? Of course. But do we know how they first became aware? I mean, the authorities, how they first became aware of this plot and of this group?

C (4:26)

Yeah, we don't know, but it's, it's usually, it's typically one or two ways. Either someone in the group has a little bit of a conscience and rats them out. Now, that happens a lot in Counter Terror. You know, when I was operating, you would see somebody in the cell who didn't feel comfortable or got angry at their fellow terrorists and, and, you know, provided an anonymous tip. The other way that the FBI could have learned about them is digital surveillance, looking for people in chat rooms in different areas of the Internet talking about these things. And what we're learning from the investigation is they were doing a lot of talking. There was a lot of chatter and coordination ahead of the attack.

A (5:06)

How difficult? This is going to be a very simplistic question, Eric. I realize that, but how difficult is it now given technology to infiltrate to identify some of these chat groups? Yeah, that's a simplistic question.

C (5:25)

It's not actually. It's a rather complex question, but it depends on what medium of communication the group is using. For example, there are different services like Discord, which is used by gamers all over the world. That's really what it was created for. And it's basically a virtual chat room. But when you are having voice chats, it's completely encrypted. You can set up a private server and then delete it when you're done. And there are other, you know, that's not the only one. There are other apps like that which makes it very hard for law enforcement to come across it. Now of course, if, if you know the terrorists or bad actors are using sort of traditional chat rooms and message boards that can be monitored easily or are being monitored by the main social media fluidity sort of things, then it makes it a little easier for law enforcement. So as with so many questions, it really does depend on how savvy they are and how well they understand cybersecurity.

A (6:25)

Okay, yeah, very good point. Now the target selection was interesting on the part of the Turtle island group.

C (6:33)

Yeah. Turtle Island Liberation Front is what they called themselves.

A (6:37)

If that's going to be their name. You're just going to have to deal with some criticism. Right, because.

C (6:42)

Well, especially if your acronym would be.

A (6:44)

To Red Brigade or. Yeah, yeah, right, yeah, the Japanese Red army or, you know, so you live that shining path and you think, okay, it sets you up to be, you know, very serious minded. But when you hear the Turtle Island Bombing association or whatever they work or are. But again, I'm not making light of the seriousness of it, but I spent a lot of time overseas in past years working against anarchist groups and you learn to have a real level of disdain for the violent anarchist world. But anyway, I digress. Their targeting was interesting.

C (7:23)

Yeah, well, they're targeting corporations and buildings and they were going to use pipe bombs which can cause serious damage and are not very difficult to build. And the interesting thing is the FBI took them down on a raid as they were in the desert building these pipe bombs, presumably to fulfill their plans and detonate.

B (7:45)

Yeah.

A (7:45)

So this was not, as you pointed out earlier on, this was not some theoretical exercise. They had gone into the operational. Yes. They'd gone beyond planning and they were involved in the logistics.

C (7:56)

Exactly. So here they would have learned about the group from some, some method, whether it's intelligence provided by a member or digital trails that were left behind. And then they surveil them and watch them. So, you know, until. While it's planning, okay, there could be conspiracy to commit. But then once they have the components to build these bombs and they're actually about to assemble them, that's where you move in and you take them down. One of the reasons for that, by the way, is because, you know, law enforcement does care about everybody's life, and there's a pretty big danger in assembling a pipe bomb. Those bombs could have gone off and killed all of them. So, you know, you make the arrest before they start assembling the bombs.

A (8:39)

Yeah, I'm gonna refrain from. See, look at me. I'm getting more matured. So the. The goal of this exercise, from their perspective, from the. The terror plotter's perspective, was to create chaos on New Year's Eve. Now, I mean, if you could talk a bit about what law enforcement. Satan, Federal law enforcement face ahead of, because we're just around the corner from New Year's Eve, obviously. But what does that look like when you're trying to plan for any potential scenario?

C (9:12)

Yeah, I stopped once upon a time. I used to go to Times Square to watch the ball drop. I stopped doing that a long time ago. Law enforcement has to be incredibly aware, not only preparing ahead of the celebrations, which are usually large crowds. New Year's Eve draws large crowds, and there is always the opportunity for chaos and large crowds. So there has to be great preparation ahead of time. And then, of course, you have to have your law enforcement assets on the ground and ready to act in a moment's notice to foil any plots that they weren't aware of or that spring up. So it's a very difficult time for law enforcement. It's not an easy time or a real fun time of year.

A (9:56)

This is a little bit, I suppose, a little bit off topic, but how would you describe the current staffing of the Bureau in terms of focusing on counterterrorism? Obviously, they've got to. They've got to address all sorts of issues across the board as an organization. But to what degree, from what you've seen, is the Bureau properly staffed up and prepared for this type of effort?

C (10:25)

Yeah, I think the Bureau has made great strides in counterterrorism. I was actually hired into the FBI to work undercover in counterterrorism under, I think, Bill Clinton, counterterrorism. Bill ended up doing a lot of spy hunting, counterintelligence while I was at it. But the. The FBI has always been excellent at counterintelligence. Counterterrorism, which is just counterintelligence to catch bombers since the events of 9, 11. You know, it's a critical goal. The FBI. And look, this case against this Turtle Beach Liberation Front is a Turtle Island. Sorry. Liberation Front is, is a great example of how, of how successful they are in foiling these kinds of plots, because that could be devastating pipe bombs going off during New Year's in Southern California. I, I just, That's a scary thought.

A (11:16)

And is it fair to say that they've, they publicized this one, this takedown, but that, is it fair to say that the public generally doesn't hear about successful operations and thwarting potential terror attacks?

C (11:32)

Yes, it, you know, I was, I, I, There's a little bit of an eyebrow raise that they publicized it. That's not typical. Usually the FBI goes in and does the work. Isn't looking for accolades, isn't looking for a pat on the back. Just goes in, takes down the bad guys, and moves on to the next one.

A (11:49)

Okay. Yeah, well, I, We've got a lot more to cover here, Eric, but I want to be mindful of time. We've got to take a, a quick break. So, Eric o', Neill, if you could stay right where you are. Don't go anywhere. We'll be right back with more of the Situation Report. Stand by. Hey, Mike Baker here, PDB host and, of course, fashion icon. Now, I want to tell you about a great clothing company out there. It's called True Classic. Now, True Classic started with a very simple goal. Make premium comfortable clothing accessible. Right? Because looking great, well, shouldn't mean paying a designer price. And clearly people agree. They've got over 25 million shirts sold. Think about that. To 5 million customers and over 200,000 five star reviews. True Classic has earned its spot in closets everywhere. But this brand is about more than just fabric and fit. It's about confidence. Showing up, feeling polished, without the effort. That's why True Classic makes the perfect holiday gift.

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Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com savings very unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company affiliates excludes Massachusetts. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is former FBI counterintelligence operative and founding partner of the Georgetown Group, Eric o'. Neill. Eric, thank you very much for sticking around. Appreciate it. Well, we've been talking about the foiled bomb plot in Southern California. I want to switch over to the other side of the country if I could. What is your assessment of the investigation regarding the Brown University shooting that took place?

C (14:53)

Right, so Brown University is very difficult for law enforcement here. There's a pretty powerful interagency task force of local law enforcement, FBI, other assets from the federal government in a manhunt looking for someone that they only have identified as a person of interest. What we would have called an unsub, unknown subject back in the day. Now, they're very confident that this person of interest, an individual wearing black, you know, about five, eight, a little heavyset, in a mask and a cap, so it makes it very hard to see their facial features. Is the person who did the shooting. There was just a very recent press conference where law enforcement, where the police chief said that the victim, the survivors of the shooting, identified that. That image in the video that they put out, they believe to be the person who committed the violent act. So that gives them confidence that this person of interest is something they really want to apprehend. The problem is that without being able to identify the person's face or that use camera surveillance, things like ring camera and traffic cameras and those sort of things. To track his egress from the, the building where he committed the shooting and into a car with a license plate or a residence or something like that. It's very difficult to identify.

A (16:14)

You talk about tracking the individual and there are some examples in London you could pick up somebody from one side down and take them all the way, you know, out of London proper because it is just so heavily surveilled and. But I assume that the authorities, that's what they're doing right now. They're. And it's very labor intensive but they're trying to piece together the degree possible all that footage as he's. This individual is moving. Yes, from Brown.

C (16:47)

The, the authorities have just released a video which shows, which shows an actual. A pretty impressive tracking using backdoor cameras and ring cameras on front porches and a few traffic cameras. The, the person of interest activity is starting around 1 o' clock all the way through and after the shooting. That shows the different areas and streets that he was walking on. He did a lot of pacing around for hours before he went in and committed that act, allegedly. And so that's a pretty good job by law enforcement of piecing together that, that digital curio using cameras. And it does give them an idea of a map of, of where he was and where he was walking, which allow. At least gives them some, some idea of, you know, an area that they want to focus their hunt. Because it's possible since he walked that he's a local and, and that he's somewhere in that area. You know, they don't know that, but that that would be one area of investigation. But what they're really hoping is that someone recognizes them and gives them a tip.

A (17:58)

What about. We said there have been great advances in recent times on facial recognition capabilities, even when somebody is wearing a mask.

C (18:09)

Yes.

A (18:11)

So I would assume that's at play here. But talk to me a little bit about that. Have you seen facial recognition play a role in a situation like this?

C (18:24)

Facial recognition is getting better, especially with AI. Now of course, you have to have an image in the database for it to be able to do its work. AI can also be used to enhance a face even with some of the blurry images that they have. But look, the images aren't great. They're kind of grainy. They're from people's ring cameras and traffic cams, which aren't real high fidelity. I haven't seen anything that shows that he was captured by video in the building or around the building. That doesn't mean that they don't exist, it just hasn't been released. And without a better image than what we've seen, it's going to be difficult. So that's why I said they're relying. I think that they're really focusing on hoping there's a tip from citizens that live there. Because, look, even if one of your friends that you've known for a long time or a family member is wearing a cap and a mask and they're walking, they walk along in front of you, you're still going to recognize them. Right? So I think they're hoping by like gate recognition and the image that someone will call and say, I know that person, you know, and that's, that's not such a big hope. It worked in the, in the Charlie Kirk shooter, if you remember, they, they put out images and then I think his family member recognized him, his family, and, and convinced himself to turn himself in.

A (19:36)

No, that's exactly right. It's interesting what you said about, you know, there has to be an image to cross reference in a database, but that is, people shouldn't imagine that that has to be. Okay, well, it's got to be a mug shot or the person has to have had prior running with law enforcement. It could be a DMV photo.

C (19:52)

It could, it could be a DMV photo.

A (19:54)

Yes.

C (19:55)

It could be media, your driver's license. Yes, yes, exactly. But you do need, you do need a little bit better than what they have. I mean, the eyes do tell an amazing story, but you have to have a pretty, a decently clear image of, of that face in order to reconstruct more of it. And in here, you know, unless they have better video, that's going to be difficult.

A (20:18)

Are you surprised that. Look, I would assume if they've been releasing this existing footage, that what that means they don't have anything better because you would, I mean, logic would say.

C (20:27)

That'S if you're, yes.

A (20:28)

Turning to the public for help at this point, you would use your best images. Is it surprising to you that Brown University doesn't have better camera systems in place?

C (20:38)

Well, certainly with the within number of school shootings that happen across, you know, the United States, or the fact that it's always a potential threat, you would want to have better cameras? I just don't know. It's hard to speculate because we haven't really seen a lot about what kind of camera systems they have. You know, one of the questions I would have if I was looking at it as a security specialist, you know, is, is where are your Cameras, are they static or are they monitored? Are they sort. The sort of camera system where after an event you can replay versus you're actively monitoring to try to prevent threats from happening? You know, those would be a lot of the questions that I would ask and I just, I just can't say because no one knows. Well, people know. It just hasn't been released to the public.

A (21:20)

Hasn't been released to the public yet. Yeah, yeah, I will say I wasn't, I wasn't overly impressed with one of their recent press conferences. It didn't seem like it was particularly well thought.

C (21:31)

I can understand, you know, I can understand law enforcement in that, in that moment. You know, there are stressed and you have a, you have somebody who is unhinged enough to take a firearm and shoot up a school and that is walking around the area or it made might be in the area or is at least out in the wind. And that's a scary thing. And law enforcement, there's nobody wants to catch this guy faster than those law enforcement officers that work in the night and day to do it.

A (21:57)

Yeah, 100 agreed on, on, on that one. But I would say, look, you know, if, you know there's, there's always some hot washer lessons to be learned after any incident, certainly this one, you would hope that every university out there, and look, Brown's in it, it's a little bit of a tough situation, right. It's kind of open access and it's, you know, it's not like you can ring fence and you know, have limited numbers of points of entry. But, but it behooves every school, kindergarten all the way through universities to take the time and periodically think about this process. And you know, sometimes I think your logic constraint, but they've.

C (22:37)

Yeah, I think you're exactly right. And in security, in you know, both physical and cybersecurity. Right. Which is where my expertise is today. The worst thing you can do is say it can't happen to me because it can. These sort of things can happen to everyone. And the fact that, you know, it's happened in the past predicts that it could potentially happen in the future. So you always have to plan ahead of the pressure event and never it just assume that it won't happen. I'm not saying that's what Brown did, but, but you know, in general, you know, we all have to take responsibility for our own security, right.

A (23:11)

And then look at every incident and say, okay, how is there anything different here that I haven't thought about? Is there something here that. That happened, that I'm not prepared for, you know, for whatever your facility or your concerns are. It never stays the same. It's like. It's like crisis management planning, right?

C (23:28)

You've.

A (23:29)

You've put together a plan, but if you don't review it, if you don't exercise it, if you don't think about how things have changed, you know, from time to time, then it's fairly ineffective at just gathering dust up on the shelf. But listen to us. Listen to you and me talking like we're two security professionals.

C (23:48)

Yeah, it happened to me. But. But you're right. I mean, you. You know, the plan only lasts, and the plan's only good as long as nothing changes. But none of us are static in our lives and our businesses and our practices.

A (24:00)

And.

C (24:00)

And so you always have to review the plan, always have to update it, and always have to make sure that you're capturing anything that could potentially happen. The best medicine for this sort of stuff is to be ready and prepared.

A (24:12)

If you had to guess. I know this is a terrible question. It's speculative and all that, but if you had to guess with the Brown University situation, because it does look, it's got that entire area spooked, as you pointed out. You've got a. You've got a killer walking around still, right? Yeah. And as far as we know from law enforcement, they don't have, you know, a lead on this particular person of interest. They have a person of interest, but so far, at least from what we know, they haven't narrowed that down to specifics. But with all your experience, how do you think this gets resolved?

C (24:43)

I think at the end of the day, what's going to happen is you're going to see more information get published. Maybe there's some other video. As they continue to find better images from people's cell phones, as they knock on doors or maybe ring cameras or that sort of thing, there might be a better image of this individual. And I think at the end of the day, the way is resolved, if someone says, oh, I recognize that guy. He lives over here. And law enforcement goes and finds him. At the end of the day, these fugitives get caught. They don't get away with it. I mean, if this guy is smart, he'll just turn himself in and save everybody a lot of grief because it's going to be worse for him the longer he. He escapes justice. But at the end of the day, I think someone will recognize him and say, I've seen that guy before, and I think it's him. And you know, law enforcement always catches these guys. Fugitives just don't get away in this, that this technology laden environment anymore.

A (25:33)

Yeah, no, that's, that's a really good point, Eric. Listen, thank you very much and as always, really enjoy the conversations. Are you writing another book by any chance?

C (25:42)

So my newest book, Spy Size and Cybercrime is out. It came out just in October and it's the perfect Christmas gift for, you know, a holiday gift for anybody. Look at that. Yeah, that's right. I want to say that anybody who wants to understand the threat against us personally against the United States, against businesses and from cybercrime and cyber espionage, the whole book reads like a spy story. And I went back to my origins at the FBI Academy and I teach you how to use counterintelligence in order to protect yourself. So the book's doing really well. It's already bestseller. And that's that perfect thing for the stocking.

A (26:21)

Where can the millions of our viewers find this book?

C (26:24)

Yeah, everywhere books are sold. You can find it on my website@ericoneil.net and if you really like my voice, I recorded the audible for it. So you can download that or get it on Amazon and listen to me read my book to you. Wow.

A (26:40)

The dulcet tones of Eric o'. Heal.

C (26:43)

That's right.

A (26:44)

I recommend everybody go out and get a copy of this book. And it is, it's holiday gifting time, so everybody get busy. Eric, thank you very much, man, for, for joining us today and sharing your expertise. Really appreciate it.

C (26:55)

Absolutely. Love the show. Always like coming on, so I'll look forward to the next time.

A (26:59)

That's great. Well, when we come back, the Gaza ceasefire is holding for now, barely. You know what? Again, here comes my cynicism. But we all ask, is it sustainable? Right. And where is it going? We'll look at what comes next with Ben Cohen of the foundation for Defensive Democracies. You're going to want to listen to him. He's got a lot of experience in this area. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment to talk about personal finances. Right. That's a very important topic. Now, I suspect you know this, but we are smack dab in the middle of the holiday season. And now for many families, of course, that means excitement, but for some it means, well, a little stress. Look, between gifts and travel and higher prices generally, it's easy to feel overwhelmed, especially if you're already relying on credit cards to cover the basics. Yeah, if that debt's piling up, well, let me tell you something. You're not alone. Now, maybe you're a homeowner, right? And if you're a homeowner, you might have considered reaching out to our friends at American Financing. But perhaps you hesitated because you don't want to give up your low mortgage rate. Well, that's why American Financing created what they call the Smart Equity Loan. It's a simple, smart way to get your finances back on track without giving up your low mortgage rate. Now, unlike a heloc, which can fluctuate with the market, the Smart Equity loan offers a fixed rate. So you'll have you guessed it, one predictable monthly payout payment. It lets you use your home's equity to pay off high interest debt, free up your cash flow and still keep your existing mortgage intact. There are no upfront fees, which is very important, right? So if you want to find out if you qualify, it's simple. Just call 866-885-1881. Again, that number is 866-885-1881. Or just visit americanfinancing.

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Plus, career coaches are available to help you navigate your professional goals. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more@capella.edu welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. For now, the ceasefire in Gaza is holding. Well, barely. It's a. It's a shaky one. Israel has been clear that if Hamas isn't disarmed peacefully, and so far it shows no signs of wanting to disarm. It reserves the right to resume military action even if a return to full scale war doesn't appear imminent. On both sides, trust is basically non existent. Many Israelis worry Hamas is using this pause to rearm, raising fears of another October 7th style attack. Palestinians, meanwhile, fear that Israel will never fully pull out of the enclave or allow for serious reconstruction, leaving Gaza essentially stuck in limbo. The big question now is whether this pause leads anywhere or just freezes the conflict in place. Oh, pro tip, I'm voting that it just freezes the conflict in place. But you know me, I'm very cynical. For more on this, let me bring in Ben Cohen. He's a senior analyst and rapid response director at the foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ben, thank you very much for joining us here on the on the Situation report.

B (30:52)

Mike, it's a great pleasure to be with you.

A (30:55)

There's a lot for us to talk about here when it comes to Gaza, but let's start at the 30,000 foot level maybe. Can you give us an idea where we currently are? What is the situation at this point? I know that's very broad.

B (31:12)

Since October, there's been a ceasefire. So the kind of intense warfare that you saw for the two years after the Hamas atrocity of October 7, 2023, when they invaded southern Israel and killed more than 1,000 people and kidnapped more than 250 people, that phase of the war is now over. The ceasefire was imposed primarily by US Diplomacy and it has not been, it's been very far from plain sailing since then. Even though the issue has dropped out of the news a little and its profile is not what it was. All the basic problems that were there before October 7, 2023 are still there. On the positive side, just to emphasize the positive, first, more humanitarian aid has been getting into Gaza since the ceasefire. The United States, through centcom, created a civilian civil military coordination center, CMCC based in Israel in the town of Kiryat Gant, and that is at the moment primarily responsible for monitoring the ceasefire, coordinating humanitarian aid flows into Gaza and more general clear up post war, clear up removing debris and trying to make some of these towns and cities in Gaza more habitable. And so that has been encouraging. And the CMCC obviously has the support of this administration, but it also has the support of the Israelis and the Arab states. But away from that, things are not quite so rosy. The point was in the first phase of the ceasefire that all the hostages would be released. All the Israeli hostages that were seized by Hamas, that essentially happened. Although one hostage, the remains of one hostage around Gvili are still in Gaza, they still have not been returned. His family is desperate. They want closure. So in fact, Hamas has technically not met its obligations under the first phase of the ceasefire. Nonetheless, the talk has been of Moving into the second phase of the ceasefire. This is something that President Trump is extremely keen on, but I think that that could fall on two points. Firstly, Hamas doesn't want to disarm. One of the key requirements of phase two is that Hamas surrenders its weapons. They've made it very clear. Their officials have made it very clear. Multiple different Hamas officials in successive interviews. We are the resistance. We are fighting for the liberation of Palestine. We're not giving up our weapons. So that's the first major problem, is that you have an armed terrorist group that is still present on the ground and still very much committed to pursuing its nefarious goals. I think the second problem that flows from the refusal of Hamas to disarm is Trump envisages what he calls the isf, the International Stabilization Force. This would be a kind of international peacekeeping force that would enter Gaza. I think they have the numbers. I've seen anywhere between 10 and 20,000 troops to maintain that ceasefire. It does have a UN Security Council mandate that was secured in a vote last month. But again, what it does not have is, are any firm commitments from donor countries to provide troops. And the reason for that is that no country wants to deploy its troops in a situation where Hamas remains armed and dangerous. So that's why, Mike, I'm feeling a little bit. A little bit on the pessimistic side here.

A (35:25)

Well, if after all that, you're only a little bit pessimistic, then you're. You by nature must be a very optimistic individual in the. In the areas of Gaza where the Israelis aren't. In other words, where they pulled back or they're not currently occupying, who's in charge?

B (35:45)

So basically, at the moment, Gaza is bisected by what the Israelis are calling a yellow line after the color of the barricade, the barriers along that line. So essentially, the Israelis have something like, let's call it 55% of Gaza, the sort of the half that lies to the east, that borders Israel and Hamas is in. The remainder on the areas of Gaza that are adjacent to the Mediterranean coast. And what the. There was actually a conference over the weekend in Qatar, in Doha, which was hosted by the administration, and they had, I think, something like 25 countries turned up, and there was a big appeal from the U.S. you know, deploy your troops. Let's get this international. International Stabilization Force staff, and let's give President Trump an announcement to make before or around the Christmas holiday, before we get to the new year, that this is. That this ISF deployment is going to happen. None of them were remotely keen on deploying troops. And those who said that they would be prepared to consider it only wanted to deploy their troops on the Israeli side of the yellow line, which to my mind, kind of defeats the. The purpose.

A (37:09)

Let me ask you this, okay?

B (37:11)

So.

A (37:14)

This is a. This is a terrible analogy. I don't even know. You can't even be described as an analogy. But what are you just describing? Where the. The US Is at this conference and is pressuring these various nations to contribute troops on the ground without Hamas, you know, standing by? The second phase obligation to disarm. To me, I mean, it sounds as if. And again, this is not an analogy, I suppose, but I'm just. I find the world to be very interesting right now. It's. It reminds me of the White House pushing Ukraine. You know, look, you can have peace, but you give up this, right? And give up this and give up this, and then we got peace.

B (37:56)

Right?

A (37:57)

So it seems like they're kind of rushing into something that doesn't make any sense. Right? I mean, so was there any talk at the conference as to how you actually get Hamas to disarm to meet its supposed obligation? Even though I'm very cynical, I don't think they ever intended to. But was there any conversation about how are we going to do this first? Because unless you do that, as you, I think, correctly pointed out, what country in its right mind is going to be willing to put their personnel on the ground? Right.

B (38:29)

And this is the problem. You really have to secure a commitment from Hamas to disarm before you can deploy these troops. If you look at other conflicts around the world where you've had terrorist groups, disarming, Northern Ireland is one example with the ira, the Irish Republican army, also in Colombia, the farc, the communist guerrillas, they also disarmed, but they signed up to that process, and they felt that it was to their political advantage to engage in disarmament. And Hamas is nowhere near there. Now. The only military force that would be capable of disarming Hamas would be the Israel Defense Forces, and that it would achieve that through the final defeat of Hamas, which is something that was prevented by the ceasefire. I certainly don't think U.S. troops are going to do it, and I would never recommend that they did. And I don't think any other country is going to be willing to step up the comparison here. I think actually it's a little bit like. I mean, you mentioned Ukraine, and that's a pertinent parallel, but I think there's another parallel to be drawn with Lebanon. If you remember, there was a war back in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. And at the end of that war, the UN Security Council passed a resolution where they said the only legitimate armed forces in Lebanon should be the armed forces of the Lebanese state. So that was a call for the disarmament of Hezbollah. That disarmament never happened. Because yet again the assumption was, well, Hezbollah might at one point, you know, they'll agree, they're reasonable people, they'll agree to give up their odds. That didn't happen. Nonetheless, the UN still deployed a peacekeeping force, uniform, I think it's about 15,000 peacekeepers in South Lebanon. So you really had a headache here for the Israelis because not only were they still facing at that time something like 150,000 Hezbollah missiles aimed at the north of Israel, but they also had to navigate and negotiate their way through this UN force which was effectively behaving as a buffer for Hezbollah. And I think the problem that he's really seeing Gaza is a repeat of that Lebanon. But this time in Gaza, instead of Irish and French troops in Lebanon, we're going to have Pakistani, Azeri, Jordanian and Iraqi troops and we're going to try and go after these Hamas terrorists. And there's a danger that in doing so we're going to kill one of these peacekeepers, that the peacekeepers will be collateral damage. So nobody wants it. The country, the potential country donor countries don't want to put their troops at that risk. And the Israelis don't want the diplomatic headache of having to go out and say, sorry, we, we killed your soldiers while we were carrying out our legitimate self defense needs in going after Hamas.

A (41:29)

Yeah, I mean, I take your point on the, on the UNIFIL troops related to the Lebanese situation. I would argue they're famously ineffective. And in reality, I mean they had no authority. They essentially, there was no pushback as Hezbollah did essentially whatever they wanted to. So you could argue that the whole concept was, well, let's just put some lipstick on this pig and say that we've accomplished something. And that always seems to be the trend in the Middle East. It's such a frustrating, complicated, layered process. People always wade into it thinking we're going to get some peace here. And then when they, they realize just how difficult it is, even though they've got plenty of past examples, it's like, well, let's just, let's just do something, right? Let's, you know, okay, we can't get Hamas disarmed, fine, let's just go to the next step, which is, you know, I would argue nonsensical, but I'm going to climb down now, Ben, off my soapbox, being mindful of time. If you could stay right where you are. Don't go anywhere. We've got to take a quick break and then we'll be right back with more from Ben Cohen here on the B2B situation report. Please stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question about personal finances. Do you owe $10,000 or more in credit card debt or personal loans? Well, with credit card debt at all time highs, Debt Relief Advocates is now currently notifying consumers of debt relief that's being made available designed to aid consumers with out of control credit card debt. Those who qualify and enroll for this relief program may only have to pay back a fraction of what they owe. Look, it's not bankruptcy or a debt consolidation loan. This is a relief program that credit card companies frankly would rather you not know about as it could end your debt nightmare and save you lots of money. Consumers owing at least $10,000 in credit card debt or personal loans can now take advantage of this debt relief as the cost of living continues to rise. To learn what debt reduction you may qualify for, simply go online and visit dra. That's for debt relief advocates. Dra.com again that's dra.com.

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A (44:41)

Joining me once again is Senior analyst and Rapid Response Director at the foundation for Defense of Democracies, Ben Cohen. Ben, thanks very much for sticking around. We I think we probably sounded like two very cynical gentlemen in our first segment. But look, I, let's, let's talk about the issue of future governance in Gaza. We've talked about their, their, the, the fact that Hamas is showing no interest in disarming. Another aspect of this was to give up governance in the enclave. So if we assume that they're also going to be as reluctant to do that as they are to set down their weapons, what are the alternatives here? And if you could also talk about, there's been some reporting, not a lot about the militias and various clans that have been pushing back against Hamas or saying, look, we're going to handle things from here and where those elements factor into all of this.

B (45:47)

Yeah, I'm happy to do that because I think that's a very important question. And you mentioned those anti Hamas militias and those started emerging roundabout the middle of 2024 as the war was intensifying. And you actually saw again at the end of 24 and at certain points in this year, 2025, you actually saw civilian demonstrations in Gaza against Hamas. People who were absolutely tired of the war, tired of the displacement, tired of the bombing. And they were not blaming Israel. These were their Palestinian demonstrators going out and blaming Hamas for that situation and essentially saying, stop using us as human shields, stop using us as tools in this struggle. Recognize us as human beings with human needs. And, you know, one of their demands was to release the Israeli hostages. Not only did Hamas pay absolutely no heed to those demonstrations, unsurprisingly they went in their arrow unit, which is their internal security, went in pretty much, I mean, all guns blazing is a literal description, not a figure of speech. And they went in and crush these demonstrations again. Then when you get to the ceasefire last October, what's the first thing that Hamas does is it basically goes to get revenge against these different militias. So right after the ceasefire was announced, you had a wave of repression in Gaza. There is still some talk of using these militias to police, if you like Gaza. There was actually an interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal you may have seen, Mike, about a week or two ago by Russam Al Astal, who is the leader of something called the Counter Terrorism Strike Force in Gaza. And he was scathing about Hamas in that piece. He actually even said, I lost my daughter and my granddaughter. I believe it was in an Israeli bombing, not because the nasty Zionists came and killed them, because Hamas was using them as human shields. So there's clearly a recognition among Gazans that Hamas has been using this strategy and what was argued in this particular opinion piece was, look, I have my militia, my counterterrorism strike force. We can ally with other clans in Gaza. We are an alternative to Hamas. Now, that might seem like pie in the sky, but actually it may be one of the more viable options that we have if we're going to stick to our guns and say, right, there is no place for Hamas in any governing structure. Again, I think that strategy is fraught with risks. Again, Lebanon is a good parallel to explain why the Israelis had a surrogate force, the South Lebanon army, for much of the last two decades of the 20th century. I think it was sort of dismantled in the early 2000s, and that was not. Not a particularly successful experiment. And certainly, I think one of the problems is that any Gazans who get involved in a post Hamas governance structure are going to be demonized in large parts of the Arab world, including in Qatar, you know, with Al Jazeera and its other propaganda outlets. You guys are collaborating with the Israelis. You're doing the dirty work of the Israelis. You're helping. You're giving an Arab certificate of legitimacy to Israel's plans to ethnically cleanse Gaza. You're probably pretty familiar with this kind of discourse, but that functions as a big disincentive. So if you don't go to the militias, then who do you have? And all that has really been talked about is a very vague kind of, I guess, trusteeship model of governance. You know, this has been tried in various parts of the world before with some. Some degree of success. Cambodia, for example, had a UN transitional authority for much of the 1990s before it could be returned to some semblance of democracy. So there are all these historical models out there, and, you know, now they're trying to graft them onto Gaza under Trump's plan, the transition.

A (50:35)

If I could.

B (50:37)

Sorry, go ahead.

A (50:38)

I'm sorry for interrupting. Ben, what about, I mean, the default position for the US and others, initially or early on, and I think some are still clinging to it, was the idea of the Palestinian Authority. Do you see them playing any role in future governance in Gaza right now?

B (50:57)

I don't part because the Israelis have explicitly ruled out any participation of the Palestinian Authority. Just to give some context, Palestinian Authority is not Hamas. It's based in the west bank in Ramallah, and the dominant faction there is Fatah, which is the main faction in the Palestine Liberation Organization, the plo. So it's ostensibly secular. And it also fought a really brutal civil war with Hamas in Gaza back in 2007. Which most people have now forgotten about. But the PA has been terribly compromised by terrorism, terribly compromised by corruption. It has really no credibility among Palestinians. I mean, Mahmoud Abbas, who is, I think now 85 or 86, maybe even older, but he's been. His term was supposed to end 20 years ago, but he's still there. So when I look at polls of Palestinian opinion in the west bank Regularly, more than 90% of people want Abbascon. And because he is so closely identified with the pa, it's very hard for the PA to regain any kind of credibility. The PA was actually raised at this conference in Qatar that we were talking about earlier, but more in terms of how can we effectively bypass the pa. So. So we're in a situation where I think we know a lot about who we don't want there. Right? We don't want Hamas in there. Israel doesn't want Turkish troops on the ground as part of the stabilization force because Turkey has been actively backing Hamas. Israel would be reticent about having Qatar on the ground there for the same reason, because Qatar has been one of the main sponsors of Hamas and Doha is a home from home for Hamas. The Four Seas Reasons Hotel there is the domicile for Hamas leaders. So we know a lot about who we don't want, and we don't really have a clear sense of who would be acceptable. I think if Hamas was further weakened, there might be a space might open up to have that conversation. But I think, and this is one of the unintended yet tragic consequences of the ceasefire is that it's actually strengthened Hamas. The lull in fighting has allowed them to. To. To. To regroup. So as far as they're concerned, they're not going.

A (53:40)

I don't think. I don't think anybody. Yeah, I don't think anybody didn't imagine. Well, I shouldn't say that, right? But anybody who's. Who's been out there or has been watching this or has been involved in this in any way, the assumption was, you know, that the only upside from Hamas perspective for, For a ceasefire, in a sense, was, okay, we need a break, we need to rearm, we need to rebuild. You know, we need to sort out the holes in our leadership structure. So that I would hope doesn't surprise a lot of people. But is there any. Is there any indication at all at this point in time from, from what you're seeing that there is anything in the works here related to Hamas and their disarmament? Because it does seem like that is. The.

C (54:38)

Is.

A (54:38)

Is. That's the point, right, that's, if that doesn't happen, I, I don't see how this is anything other than kicking the can down the road to the next outbreak of violence. And people are just looking again, I think, just to put a band aid on a sucking chest wound so they could pat themselves in the back and say, look, we got some peace, but it doesn't mean anything because we're going to be right back in the same position. I sound like such a cynical bastard. I realize that, Ben.

B (55:04)

No, I mean, I mean, maybe, but nonetheless, it still warrants it. You know, I mean, I think, I think the idea of Hamas mutating from an armed terrorist group back into, backed by Iran into a legitimate political party that doesn't use violence, I think is an absolute fantasy. But, but that's what would essentially be required. And so I don't see Hamas giving up its weapons, abandoning those elements of its political program that call for the destruction of the state of Israel. I don't see it ever expressing any regret or remorse for the murders, the rapes, the sheer depravity that we saw on October 7th. So none of this is going to be palatable to Israel. So I think there's a danger, and I'm not making this as a definite prediction, but I think there is a danger that at some point early in 2026, the Trump administration is going to have to confront reality and ask, okay, do we now give up on disarmament? Do we now give up on the international stabilization force? At the moment, the rhetoric coming out of Washington is still quite optimistic. We're hop make an announcement by Christmas or by the New Year. Short of a black swan event is the only way I can describe it. I don't see that happening between now and December 31st. So, yeah, what is the political culture in Gaza going to be post war? Can there be a political environment there without, without Hamas? All the indications at the moment aren't that that's not possible.

A (56:53)

I would add one word to what you just said. I said, when you, when you said post war, I would say post this war. Yeah, right. I, I, yeah, I don't see how this heads to any even short term real stability.

C (57:09)

Right.

A (57:09)

I think it's so I, again, I realize I'm, I'm not, and I take your point. The White House is still being optimistic, but look, they're being optimistic about the, the Ukraine conflict when all sides point to the fact that, you know, Putin has no interest in finding an off ramp to his invasion. So I, you know, I guess it's always important to be looking for solutions. I think we, we have to be talking, whether we're talking to the Qataris, the Saudis, anyone out there, the Egyptians, because that has to happen. We can't ever just say enough's enough and, you know, walk away. That's not the world that we live in. Unfortunately. A lot of people would like to draw the curtains, I think, in, in the US and say, well, we can just, just focus on ourselves. But, you know, it's a small world and, and it's all very interconnected now at this stage of the game. Yeah, but listen, Ben, I, I've really, really enjoyed this conversation and all I can say is I hope you'll, you'll agree to come back when we, when we call you again, which we undoubtedly will do.

B (58:06)

I'll be more than happy to do that. Mike, thanks very much for having me today.

A (58:09)

Thank you again. Stopping by, sharing your insight and your expertise with us for a very, very complex situation. And again, I realize everyone's going, my God, Mike. And Mike just bummed me out completely over this, but we just try to be as pragmatic as possible here at the PDB and report the facts and not sugarcoat things. Well, look, that's all the time we have for the PDB situation report. I can't sit believe that I said sugarcoat. What is that, 1950s? Anyway, if you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes, please reach out to me at bdb@the firsttv.com you know what we do, right? We sit around a conference table made of solid mahogany in a very posh looking conference room and we go through all your letters and your postcards and your faxes and we select the best questions and every now and then we smoosh them into a episode that we call Ask Me Anything. So keep those cards and letters and faxes and postcards coming to listen to the podcast or the show ad free.

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Do it very simply. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com and also if you get a chance, please check out our YouTube channel. It's at President's Daily Brief. If you like what you see, you know what, go ahead and subscribe. I'm Mike Baker. Until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Ryan Reynolds here, wishing you a very happy half off holiday because right now Mint Mobile is offering you the.

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