PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024

Summary

The President's Daily Brief – Episode Summary: December 21st, 2024

Host: Mike Baker
Guests: Jonathan Schanzer, Executive Director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies; Ryan Macbeth, Open Source Intelligence Analyst
Release Date: December 21, 2024

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1. Introduction

In this episode of "The President's Daily Brief," host Mike Baker addresses two critical global issues: the potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after a prolonged 14-month conflict, and a comprehensive review of the war in Ukraine as it enters its third year. The episode features in-depth discussions with experts Jonathan Schanzer and Ryan Macbeth, who provide analysis on the evolving geopolitical landscape.

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2. Potential Ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas Conflict

Overview of the Ceasefire Negotiations

Mike Baker opens with a detailed report on the possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. After months of stagnation and failed negotiation attempts, there is renewed optimism that a deal might be imminent. The proposed agreement is reportedly structured to roll out in phases, encompassing:

• Cessation of Hostilities: An immediate halt to all forms of combat between the two parties.
• Hostage Exchange: Israeli hostages held by Hamas are to be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.
• Humanitarian Aid: Increased delivery of humanitarian assistance to Gaza to address the severe humanitarian crisis.

Quote:
[00:01] Mike Baker: “After months of stalemates, after back and forths and failed efforts, Israel and Hamas might finally be nearing a ceasefire to end the ongoing 14-month war.”

Expert Analysis with Jonathan Schanzer

Jonathan Schanzer provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors contributing to the potential progress in ceasefire negotiations. He attributes the shift primarily to Israel's significant military advancements over Hamas.

Quote:
[02:52] Jonathan Schanzer: “Israel's winning. And you can see it across all of the domains where Israel's been fighting and Hamas is on its last leg... the Israelis are slowly and methodically moving through those tunnels, mapping them and destroying them after they make sure that there are no hostages there.”

Key Factors Leading to Ceasefire Progress

1. Military Dominance: Israel has effectively dismantled 23 out of 24 Hamas brigades, crippling the militant group's military infrastructure.
2. Strategic Corridors: The establishment of the Netzerim Corridor and Philadelphia Corridor allows Israel to maintain control over Gaza, preventing Hamas from rearming and resupplying.
3. Regional Dynamics: The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the weakening of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities have diminished Hamas’s external support.
4. Political Pressure: The incoming Trump administration’s stance demanding the war’s end before January 20th adds pressure for a resolution.

Quote:
[04:17] Jonathan Schanzer: “They have built the Netzerim Corridor... the Israelis have a semi-permanent structure there that is maintaining control over Gaza. Hamas cannot compete at this point.”

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3. Implications and Future Outlook

Preventing Rearmament and Ensuring Sustainability

Schanzer discusses the measures in place to prevent Hamas and its allies from rebuilding military capabilities post-ceasefire. The maintenance of critical supply corridors is pivotal in this strategy.

Quote:
[05:17] Jonathan Schanzer: “The Israelis are not leaving what's known as the Philadelphia Corridor... that's a 20-mile corridor that the Israelis are going to maintain control over. That's going to prevent the rearming and resupply of Hamas.”

Political Leadership Challenges in Gaza

The absence of effective political leadership in Gaza remains a significant hurdle. Schanzer highlights the lack of credible alternatives to Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, which is seen as corrupt and ineffective.

Quote:
[07:49] Jonathan Schanzer: “As long as we have that absence of leadership and real no vision for what comes next, I think the Israelis are going to have to stay there.”

Regional Support and Long-Term Solutions

Schanzer emphasizes the need for new leadership in Gaza, potentially endorsed by pragmatic Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. However, he remains skeptical about the likelihood of such support materializing in the near term.

Quote:
[10:35] Jonathan Schanzer: “What the Israelis need is truly new leadership, clean leadership... endorsed by some of those pragmatic states in the Gulf.”

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4. The Role of the Iranian Regime

Iran’s Continued Influence and Challenges

Schanzer addresses the persistent threat posed by the Iranian regime, which remains hostile towards Israel. He advocates for regime change as a viable solution to diminishing Iran’s support for Hamas and destabilizing forces in the region.

Quote:
[20:48] Jonathan Schanzer: “If the Iranian regime continues to agitate for the destruction of the State of Israel... we've got problems.”

Strategies for Regime Change

Schanzer suggests supporting the Iranian populace through financial aid, intelligence, and communication systems to facilitate internal pressure against the regime without direct military intervention.

Quote:
[22:40] Jonathan Schanzer: “We need to provide the people of Iran with cash, with intelligence, with communication systems... to help them develop a strategy and execution that would bring down this regime.”

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5. The War in Ukraine: 2024 Year in Review

Technological Advancements in Warfare

Ryan Macbeth highlights significant advancements in drone technology, noting that both Russia and Ukraine have accelerated their development cycles to as little as six to eight weeks.

Quote:
[34:54] Ryan Macbeth: “When the war started, the design cycles for drones were every six to eight months...now we're seeing six to eight weeks...”

Integration of North Korean Troops

A notable development in 2024 is the deployment of North Korean troops alongside Russian forces. However, this integration has been fraught with operational challenges, including severe communication barriers and lack of combat experience among North Korean soldiers.

Quote:
[37:29] Ryan Macbeth: “Probably the most significant development is the advent of North Korean troops inside Russia.”

Economic Strain on Russia

Schanzer and Macbeth discuss the dire economic implications for Russia, exacerbated by the lack of advanced machine tools and diminished external support. This economic strain hampers Russia's ability to sustain prolonged military engagements.

Quote:
[42:28] Ryan Macbeth: “Russia has a huge machine tools problem...they have to choose whether to use those tools for weapons or other critical infrastructure.”

Prospects for the Conflict

Macbeth predicts that Russia may face a severe manpower crisis and an overheating wartime economy, making a sustainable military victory unlikely without significant external support. The ongoing smuggling operations and the potential for increased instability in neighboring regions add to the complexity.

Quote:
[40:33] Ryan Macbeth: “He absolutely does. Now this is starting to look a lot like Vietnam...”

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6. Drone Security Concerns in the United States

Drone Incursions Over Sensitive Airspace

Baker and Macbeth address increasing concerns over unauthorized drone incursions into US airspace, particularly over classified military facilities like Wright Patterson Air Force Base. The current legal framework hampers effective response, leaving authorities with limited options to mitigate these threats.

Quote:
[54:56] Ryan Macbeth: “We have to put up a sign saying no drone zone...”

Challenges in Policy and Technology

The lack of robust protocols and advanced anti-drone technology poses significant security risks. Legal restrictions prevent the use of jammers and other countermeasures by civilians and police, complicating efforts to address drone threats.

Quote:
[55:47] Ryan Macbeth: “Honestly, most likely these drones were part of a Red team kind of exercise...”

Future of Drone Regulation

The episode underscores the urgent need for updated regulations and enhanced technological capabilities to manage and prevent unauthorized drone activities over sensitive areas.

Quote:
[57:25] Mike Baker: “Ryan, that is a conversation we're going to have to pick up the next time...”

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7. Conclusion

Mike Baker wraps up the episode by reflecting on the complex and intertwined global issues discussed. He emphasizes the importance of staying informed and engaged with ongoing geopolitical developments. The episode concludes with an invitation for listeners to provide feedback and participate in future "Ask Me Anything" segments.

Quote:
[57:25] Mike Baker: “I hope there is a next time. But listen, as always, man, I really, really appreciate your insight, your information and the background there in your office, Ryan Macbeth.”

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Key Takeaways:

• Ceasefire Between Israel and Hamas: A phased ceasefire deal is nearing completion, driven by Israel's military dominance and strategic control over Gaza. Long-term stability hinges on establishing effective political leadership and mitigating Iranian influence.

• War in Ukraine: The conflict continues with significant advancements in drone technology and the controversial integration of North Korean troops. Russia faces economic and manpower challenges, raising questions about the sustainability of its military efforts.

• US Drone Security: Increasing drone incursions over US military sites highlight inadequacies in current legal and technological frameworks, necessitating urgent policy and infrastructure updates.

Overall, the episode provides a thorough analysis of pressing global conflicts, offering expert insights into the complexities and potential future developments shaping international relations.

Transcript

[Mike Baker]

This episode is brought to you by Lifelock. The holidays mean more travel, more shopping, more time online, and more personal info in places that could expose you to identity theft. That's why LifeLock monitors millions of data points every second. If your identity is stolen, their US Based restoration specialist will fix it, guaranteed, or your money back. Get more holiday fun and less holiday worry with Lifelock. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com podcast terms apply. Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. Today we begin in Israel, where a breakthrough might just be on the horizon. A hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. We'll get the latest from Jonathan Schanzer. He's the executive director of the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. And later in the program, we'll review how the war in Ukraine has progressed throughout its third year. That's right, a third year. Examining the major events of 2024 and what 2025 just might hold. Open source intelligence analyst and friend of the show Ryan Macbeth will join us to break it down. But first, today's situation Report. Spotlight. Now, after months of stalemates, after back and forths and failed efforts, Israel and Hamas might finally be nearing a ceasefire to end the ongoing 14 month war. Officials are urging caution, as they should, as critical details still need to be hammered out. However, there is a renewed sense of optimism, which frankly, has been absent for quite some time. Reports from Egyptian and Hamas sources indicate the potential deal would roll out in phases. It includes a cessation of hostilities, the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and an increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza. Now, Israel estimates that Hamas is holding some 100,000 hostages, though tragically, over one third of them are believed to have been killed. This possible agreement may mark a turning point in a conflict that has destabilized the region and been devastating for the Palestinians and Israeli people alike. For more on this, let me bring in Jonathan Schanzer. He's the executive director of the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Jonathan, thanks very much for taking the time to join us here on the Situation report.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Hey, it's my pleasure.

[Mike Baker]

Let's start with a very big question. It's sort of at the 30,000 foot level and then we can drill down from there. But what do you think accounts for the apparent progress with the ceasefire negotiations right now?

[Ryan Macbeth]

Well, it's a good question.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

I mean, I think, number one, Israel's winning. And, and you can see it across all of the domains where Israel's been fighting and Hamas is on its last leg, 23 out of 24 brigades destroyed. Really virtually no military infrastructure above ground to speak of. The Israelis are slowly and methodically moving through those tunnels, mapping them and destroying them after they make sure that there are no hostages there. So that's working out, I think, pretty well from the Israeli perspective. They also have built this. It's called the Netzerim Corridor. It's this new, essentially elongated base that cuts across, you know, the. I guess around two thirds of the way up Gaza. You see this large corridor, now a major base. And so the Israelis have a semi permanent structure there that is maintaining control over Gaza. Hamas just cannot compete at this point. They've been really knocked for a loop. But then you've got the weakening of Hisbah in the north, which is. These are, of course, Hamas's longtime allies. They've just agreed to raise the white flag. They don't want to fight Israel any longer because the Israelis just beat them up pretty good, too. Their leadership has been up, utterly gutted. And on top of that, the Israelis have destroyed a vast amount of their military infrastructure.

[Mike Baker]

And so that's all good.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

And then on top of that, you see the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. And the Israelis also took out that the air defenses of Iran back in late October. They've taken out the ballistic missile production facilities. There's really nothing left right now of that support structure that Hamas once had. That means that the Israelis have the upper hand. And then on top of that, you got Donald Trump coming in saying, I want this war over before January 20th, or there's going to be hell to pay. I think that's got everybody quaking in their boots. So I think right now momentum is shifting toward the end of the war. That's a good thing.

[Mike Baker]

Well, that is a good thing. But to what degree does a ceasefire, regardless of whether it's temporary or. I mean, I hate to use the word permanent when we're talking about anything related to the Middle east, but to what degree does that give Hamas and Iran the opportunity to rebuild?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

You're always going to have that moment where, you know, the guns fall silent and then they start to think about how they're going to do this again. I think there's a couple things to watch. One is the Israelis are not leaving what's known as the Philadelphia Corridor. This is the area between the Sinai Peninsula and. And the Gaza Strip. The Israelis know that that's where the vast majority of the rearming and resupplying of Hamas. That's where it's all happened in recent years. I don't think there's any way you can get around that any longer. It's not coming by way of the Mediterranean, it's not coming over land from Israel. So it pretty much leaves Egypt. So it's about a 20 mile corridor that the Israelis are going to maintain control over. That's going to prevent the rearming and resupply of Hamas. On top of that, you're going to have, I think because of what's been happening in the, with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, you're not going to see the rearming of Hezbollah either. Unless Iran somehow makes a new deal with the Al Qaeda rulers, the Turkish backed Al Qaeda rulers in the Assad, or rather in Syria after the Assad regime. All of those things would seem right now to indicate that the Iranian axis as we knew it does not have the capability to rearm the way they once did. And so I think we may see sort of a lull in this kind of activity. It doesn't mean that peace is going to break out, let's just be clear here. But I do think that it may take a bit longer for these groups to rearm, if they rearm at all. I mean, Hezbollah will have another go. Hamas, I'm not sure.

[Mike Baker]

I mean, you mentioned the Nets corridor and also the Philadelphia corridor. So a big sticking point, an issue apparently anyway with previous ceasefire negotiations, was the demand from Hamas that any part of the negotiations require that Israel withdraw entirely from Gaza. And Israel said themselves over a number of different occasions that they have no interest in a permanent presence. So what does that look like? Because you have to imagine that, you know, having gone through this exercise and all this difficulty, the idea of packing up and leaving is not attractive. But the idea of a permanent occupation, both from I think the Israeli perspective, but also international narrative, I don't think that's tenable.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Look, it's not. But I'm going to just tell you flat out, I don't think the Israelis are going anywhere anytime soon. What they need to find is they need to find new political leadership in Gaza. And we just don't see it. I mean, I'm hard pressed to find anyone within the PLO that has the respect of the Israeli leadership right now. So the Palestinian Authority, that interim government that has not been performing wonderfully in the West Bank, I don't see them coming in. I don't see the Saudis or the Emiratis lining up, raising their hands, saying, hey, we want to, we want to spend time in Gaza. We want to spend billions of dollars in rebuilding Gaza. You're not seeing that either. So I think as long as we have that absence of leadership and real no vision for what comes next, I think the Israelis are going to have to stay there. And I got to tell you also, I don't think the Israelis are too unhappy about the idea of leaving Gaza, maybe in a little bit of a state of flux for a time, as a message to everyone, here's what happens when you murder 1200 Israelis. Here's what happens when you kidnap 250 plus Israelis. You don't just get, you know, billions of dollars in blank checks from the international community. You just don't get to rebuild. After 14 months, they're going to stay there. They're going to ensure that there's security and they're going to rebuild things, I think on their own terms, I think in perpetuity is not a good idea. I think that spending the time to make sure that they got the right ingredients and that Hamas has really been snuffed out after a hostage swap has been made, that does seem like something that would be realistic. You're not going to hear people cheering about it from Europe. You're not going to hear the UN saying this is a great thing. You're going not going to hear the Arab world say that it's a great thing. But I think it's the reality.

[Mike Baker]

I agree with you 100%. Look, you're not going to hear anybody cheering about it. But I think it's going to be the opposite. Right? You're going to hear a very proactive, aggressive response to anything that appears to be a mid to long term occupation. And in reality, I mean, look, from an operational perspective, I think you've laid out, you know, the reasons for maintaining a presence. In the short term, I think it's absolutely operationally sound. But anything beyond that, you know, we're just doing what we've always done in the Middle East. We're just kicking the can down the road saying, all right, well, you know, we've got a temporary piece, you know, good for us, you know, let somebody else deal with it in the long term. So let's go back to that issue of political leadership. I mean, what from your perspective, what is a longer term solution? What is that leadership in Gaza going to look like?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Yeah, I mean, look, I think a couple of points. One is it can't be Hamas and there's talk right now of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority having some kind of technocratic leadership solution where they would together try to govern Gaza. I don't see the Israelis agreeing to it. They don't want to let Hamas in or let Hamas back in any demonstrable way. And they don't, they don't like the pa. I mean, the Palestinian Authority in the west bank is corrupt. You got a guy who's, you know, in his 80s, who's been in power since 2005. It's a disaster over there too. So, you know, I think what, what the Israelis are looking for right now is, you know, truly new leadership, clean leadership. You know, a leader or a group of people that are, I think, interested in trying to build Gaza into something sustainable. Now there are people who are talking about turning it into Singapore. Let's be honest, gas is not Singapore. I mean, you could turn it into something viable. But I don't think we should exaggerate here. But I think really what we're looking for right now is leadership that's going to be endorsed by some of those pragmatic states in the Gulf. So whether it's the Emiratis, the Bahrainis, the Saudis, all right, some of Israel's better peace partners or better potential peace partners, having the endorsement of these countries, knowing that they are going to be, at the end of the day, the patrons of the people that inherit leadership in Gaza. I think that's really important for the Israelis. I think packaging this as part of a broader, you know, extension of the Abraham Accords. We're watching, of course, Saudi Arabia, when the Trump administration comes in, they're going to start feeling the heat. They're going to, I mean, the, the Trump administration the last time around had him on the five yard line. They were ready to pull the trigger on a normalization deal. Trump lost. And as a result, you know, the normalization progress really experienced some crazy setbacks. I think Biden really snatched defeat from the jaws of victory there. But I think with the Saudis come in or with the Trump administration coming back and the Saudis know that it's going to be on the table again, we may be able to create a new reality with Gaza in the mix. I think that shows some promise right now. But let's not get too giddy. There's a lot that needs to happen before that moment.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I think, I don't know that anybody's going to approach anything resembling giddy at this point. And I want to pick up on this after the break because I I'm a cynical person when it comes to, you know, developing any sort of long term solutions out in the Middle East. Anybody who's been watching that area for decades, I think might feel the same way. But I want to circle back to this after the break. Jonathan, if you'll stick around, we've got a quick break and then we'll be back with Jonathan Schanzer. He's the executive director for the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, America, of course, just got done with a historical election. You, you may have heard something about that. Now, sure, there's, there's going to be some change in the White House. There always is when you change administrations. But the fundamentals of the economy haven't changed. And here's the problem. The dollar is in decline with the US adding, get this $100,000 in debt every second. I mean, look at your watch. Oh, there goes another 100,000. Oh, and another. And see, it just keeps ticking away. Meanwhile, BRICS nations have introduced the unit. That's what they're calling a new global currency pegged 40% to gold and 60% to BRICS currencies, which could mark the beginning of a global monetary reset. So you ask yourself, okay, well, what do I do about all of this? Well, one suggestion is you should call the proud Americans of the Patriot Gold Group today before it's too late. Mention PDB and you will always get Best in Class service from Patriots Protecting Patriots. Patriot Gold Group has the no fee for life IRA, where your IRA or 401k can be in physical gold and silver. And you may be eligible for the no fee for Life IRA on qualifying rollovers. Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. And here's an important point. Patriot Gold Group is Consumer affairs top rated gold IRA dealer for seven years in a row. Mm, that's a lot of years in a row. Call 1-888-870-5457. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, look at that. We managed to survive the election season in the U.S. now, as you might imagine, anytime you change administrations, there's always a certain level of uncertainty, right? Where's the economy headed? What will be the new policies? Well, that uncertainty, of course, can mean ups and downs and turbulence in the economy. But there are other factors at play as well. Outside influences working to create chaos. Look, the fact is the US dollar is in decline with the US adding $100,000 in debt every second. Think about that $100,000 in new debt every second. Meanwhile, the BRICS nations have introduced what they call the unit. It's a new Global currency pegged 40% to gold and 60% to BRICS currencies. You have to ask yourself could this BRICS summit mark the beginning of a global monetary reset? I mean, it's a question worth asking. Another good question is what to do about it? What are the options when it comes to dealing with economic uncertainty and the ups and downs of the market? One answer that could be right for you is talking to the experts at the Patriot Gold Group. Look, call the proud Americans of the Patriot Gold Group today. Mention PDB and you'll always get best in class service from Patriots protecting patriots. Patriot Gold Group has the no fee for life IRA where your IRA or 401k can be in physical gold and silver and you may be eligible for the no fee for Life IRA on qualifying rollovers. Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. Patriot Gold Group is consumer affairs top rated gold IRA dealer for seven years in a row. That's a lot of years in a row. Call 1-888-870-5457. It is Ryan here and I have a question for you. What do you do when you win? Like are you a fist pumper, A woo hooer, a hand clapper, a high fiver? If you want to hone in on.

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So don't wait. Start having the most fun every [e-mail] sponsored by Chumba Casino. No PURCHASE NECESSARY VGW Group VOID where prohibited by law 18 + terms and conditions apply. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us again is Jonathan Schanzer. He's the executive director for the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. And we are knee deep in the ceasefire negotiations issue with Israel and Hamas. Jonathan, before the break you we're talking about the political leadership and what that could look like down the road. And I didn't want to interrupt you but as you were talking about what is going to be required for a longer term solution, I did want to jump in and say, well okay, all of that being said, how optimistic are you that something like that is actually possible?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

I'm not optimistic in general. I think we've just watched a 14 month war play out in the Middle East. It's probably going to stretch into a 15 month before it ends, if it ends at all. And I would probably also expect chaos to continue in the West Bank. I'm not convinced that the Houthis are going to stop firing on Israel or on American warships in the Red Sea. Even if a ceasefire deal is struck, even if the Iranians stop firing, even if Hezbollah stops firing, I'm not sure that this whole thing goes quiet. And with the Middle east, you know, still on war footing, it's going to get even harder to find that political leadership that can step in. I do think though, that at some point we are eventually going to see Mahmoud Abbas, or Abu Mazen as he's known, the President of the Palestinian Authority. He's getting up there in age, he's not well. At some point he's going to leave the scene. That will give an opportunity to the Palestinians in the west bank to select new leadership and to perhaps begin to rebuild anew. And that could include the Gaza Strip. And so I think that there are things that are coming down the pike when I'm not sure. Look, if you ask me, I think Donald Trump should come out early on in his new administration and say, hey, Abu Mazen, you've been in power since 2005. Get out, your time's up. Right. You've been in power now for far too long. You're almost 20 years into a four year term. Maybe it's time you step aside and let the Palestinians experience leadership that's going to be more effective. Do that and begin to have conversations with a new pragmatic, you know, I think forward looking, moderate leader on the west bank side of things, you may begin to see some breakthroughs that would be ideal. Again, you know, with encouragement coming from Saudi, from the Emirates and from some of other peace partners that Israel actually trusts. I would say, by the way, Egypt and Jordan probably don't qualify. Yeah.

[Mike Baker]

But looming all over that is the Iranian regime. And it appears as if they still, even though they're weakened, there's no doubt about that. They don't seem to be shifting off their position that Israel shouldn't exist. So there could be discussions around what could happen in Gaza. But I guess my question for you now is, does anything change as long as the current Iranian regime and the IRGC are in place?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Look, the answer to that is obviously no. If the Iranian regime continues to agitate for the destruction of the State of Israel and makes it a key pillar of what the regime pushes for from a policy perspective, from a military perspective, we've got Problems. Right. We saw what those problems look like up close for 14 months. Months, right. Seven front war being waged against Israel and the United States. Don't forget that, you know, the US Was sustaining fire from Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria and Yemen throughout this entire process. And the Iranians were driving all of it. Right. So we're going to have to solve this problem. Ultimately, I think that comes down to a policy embraced by the incoming Trump administration of regime change. Now, regime change is like a dirty word here in Washington, here in the swamp, we don't talk about that anymore because, you know, we did it in Iraq and Afghanistan and people said, well, you know, that failed, so we shouldn't try to do it again.

[Ryan Macbeth]

Right.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

That America is bad at it. Well, I think we've overlearned those lessons. I think we're now too timid when it comes to the real threats that America faces. And by the way, doesn't mean if we're in favor of regime change, we don't have to put boots on the ground. We don't have to start sacrificing, you know, our blood and treasure in far flung places. We can support the Iranian people and we can support Iran's neighbors to help bring down this regime that has been a thorn in our side since 1979.

[Mike Baker]

So what does that look like when you, when you say regime change? And I agree, I, I've been around a long time, seen my share of, of, of those activities. What does that look like? If it's not a kinetic war in specifics, what would you do? How would you recommend if you were sitting down in the Oval Office saying, look, here is, here's the key elements of what we're talking about here?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Yeah, I mean, look, I would argue that the vast majority of the Iranian people hate their regime. There are a ton of minorities that hate the regime, but they're also, you know, they're, they're Persians that hate the regime. They believe that their regime is wasted their oil revenue, that they have wasted military expenditures, and by the way, the repression that the regime has placed on its own people, this has run its course. And so we need to provide the people of Iran with cash, with intelligence, with communication systems, maybe even weapons, as, you know, as required to help them really develop a strategy and an execution that would bring down this regime that is thoroughly hated. I think that you've got Azerbaijan, you've got Saudi Arabia, you've got Israel, you've got a whole bunch of other countries in the region that also hate Iran. They hate this regime in Iran. Right. They don't hate the Iranian people, but they do believe that the Islamic Republic is one of the greatest problems faced in the Middle East. You've got a whole country now in Syria. They're celebrating the ouster of, of Iran from that country. I think the Iraqis would probably benefit as well from expunging Iranian influence there. So what we need is a process of, you know, removing this really rotten regime from across the Middle East. But it's got to start in Iran itself, where I think you have a population naturally inclined to help. And, you know, so I think that's the conversation that needs to start sooner rather than later. And I think it's interesting because you got a president coming in who's been the target of assassination attempts by this regime. So he's going to be motivated to start to think about how we get rid of these, these bad actors. And, and of course, there's that history that we have dating back to Trump's maximum pressure campaign, the big sanctions that were being put on the regime. What we didn't do last time we have an opportunity to do now is to extend that to support to the Iranian people.

[Mike Baker]

You mentioned Iraq, Jonathan. How significant is Iran's or the Iranian regime's influence in Iraq? And is there a. A potential that, given their loss of. Of Syria, in a sense, that their focus shifts to developing further influence within Iraq within the militias and also within the Iraqi government?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Yeah, I mean, look, the Iranians already control Iraq to a large extent, and it was a huge mistake of ours to leave when we did in the way that we did, because we left Iran in total control. It used to be that they, you know, had primary control in the southern part of that country. That's the, The Shiite population there. And so it was sort of natural. But now, you know, you go further north in Baghdad and even into parts of Kurdistan, and you're still going to see a running influence, financial influence is clear. The central bank, I think, has just been hijacked by the Iranian regime. So I'm deeply concerned there. I do think that the Shia militias, the PMUs, as they're known, the popular mobilization units that were based in Syria, they did leave. They melted away. I think a lot of them went to Iraq, and that's where they were going to reorganize. I think those Shia militias, by the way, may also continue the smuggling of Captagon, this addictive drug that has helped fund the Assad regime in the past. It's going to yield money to Hezbollah to the regime itself. I can imagine that that smuggling is going to continue by way of Iraq into Jordan. Jordan has been a popular place for the smuggling of that drug but also weapons and cash bound for the West Bank. So yeah, I'm going to see. I think we should expect Iraq to become some sort of a operational hub for the regime. I think, look, the good news is, is that it's now further away from Lebanon and it's further away from Israel. But the regime has not stopped trying to destabilize the Middle East. They're going to keep it going. And again that's just one more reason why I think we need to push back against this regime, try to bring it down. And I think using the Iranian people is going to be the better way of doing this, the non kinetic way. But we're going to need to give them real support and it's going to need to be a whole of government effort in my view on the part of the Trump administration.

[Mike Baker]

I take your point. Look, I mean I think if you can get the population to take it upon themselves to, to effect regime change, to drive the mullahs in the IRGC out, although the IRGC is just fully embedded in every aspect of the Iranian government and economy at this point. But again, here comes, here comes my cynical nature. I mean we've been hoping for that for decades, right? We've been thinking that it would happen. We've been very poor at supporting it when there are glimmers of significant protest. But I take your point. That would be the ideal situation. I'm glad you raised the issue of Captagon. The estimates maybe a ten billion dollar trade, two and a half billion dollars going into Assad and his family's pockets as a result of the narco trafficking in, in Captagon, that's not going to go away. I think you raised a very important point. It's not as if there goes Assad. Oh, so we've solved the problem, right? Someone wants that revenue stream and I would argue they've already infiltrated the past networks that were set up by Assad and they're taking it over at this point. And my guess would be the Iranians aren't going to let that go anytime soon.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

No, I think you're right. It's, it's a huge lucrative business. And the smugglers on the Jordanian border I'm sure have already figured out how to talk to the Al Qaeda, the new Al Qaeda leadership that's taken over Turkish backed. I'm sure the Turks would probably Love to benefit from, from, from that drug trade. I think we should expect the Turks to try to take it over. But again, I think you're going to probably see some new smuggling networks from, from the Iraqi side of things where the Iranians are going to try to exploit that process as well. So I think, you know, Captagon continues, illicit financial flows continue, illicit weapons smuggling continues. Says the Middle east, we should expect these things. But I do think that the Iranian land bridge, as we used to call it, the Shiite crescent, has been disrupted.

[Mike Baker]

It's good news.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

But, you know, I think the one little bit of cold water I want to throw on this is that you now have again, a. An Al Qaeda regime backed by Turkey, backed by Qatar, that's just taken over Syria. I don't think we should be celebrating that right now. I think a lot of people are saying, hey, Assad's gone. This is great, big victory. You know, this is, you know, Alien versus Predator. You got one bad actor winning against another, and we're going to have to deal with them, too. So I think some interesting challenges ahead that I think have yet to be grappled with by the lame duck, outgoing Biden administration. They seem like bystanders right now. The hope here is, of course, that the Trump team, they're taking a good hard look at the new rulers of Syria, their patrons, you know, in Ankara and Doha, and trying to figure out how to make sure that they can be contained. Because Al Qaeda, we all should remember, not a good actor. And we could even see jailbreaks by isis, you know, up in the north, in the Kurdish areas, that could make things even more chaotic. This is one to watch right now. Far from stable in Syria.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, it reminds me very much of the early days in Iraq. There was this euphoria with the fall of Saddam Hussein, and it didn't take very long. It was a blink of an eye. And we all stood around and watched it just descend into chaos and sectarian violence. So I, I think you're right. We need to, we need to dampen down while still being, you know, proactive and optimistic. And I think you do an amazing job of that. I don't know that I've talked to anybody recently, Jonathan, that walks that line better between cynicism and optimism. And so I give you a lot of credit, but Jonathan Schanzer, executive director for the foundation for the Defense of Democracies, this has been delightful. I don't use the word delightful very often, but I do hope you'll. You'll come back because we've got a lot of ground left to cover.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

It'd be my pleasure. Anytime.

[Mike Baker]

All right, coming up next, the war in Ukraine, believe it or not, is about to enter its third year with North Korean troops now taking casualties on Russian soil. Open source intelligence analyst Ryan Macbeth will join us to break down the biggest developments of 2024 and what we might expect in 2025. Hey, Mike Baker here. Look, if you're tired of the same old coffee from those mega corporations and I think you know the ones I'm talking about pushing their woke agendas, which, which they do. Well, listen up. It's time to take a stand and support a brand that truly embodies American values. And of course, I'm talking about blackout coffee. Look, they stand with hard working Americans who believe in family and faith and in freedom. They roast some of the most incredible coffee you'll ever taste. That is the truth. Using only premium grade beans roasted and shipped to you get this within 48 hours, right? The beans are sitting in the roaster and before you know it, there they are in your mug. For the cold brew fans, Blackout Coffee is now also excited to announce the launch of their two new ready to drink cold brew coffee latte options. Don't settle for less. Make the switch to blackout coffee. Head over to blackoutcoffee.com PDB and use the code. Here comes the code. PDB for 20 off your first order. That's blackoutcoffee.com PDB, and the code of course is PDB. Join the movement and taste the difference. Remember, with every sip, you're supporting a brand that stands for America. And as we say around these parts, be awake, not woke.

[Ryan Macbeth]

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[Jonathan Schanzer]

The very first day by the deep.

[Ryan Macbeth]

State who picked off one by one members of the then president, President's inner circle. And some of them are still on the scene. You will see in depth interviews with for example, Cash Patel, who is the incoming President's new FBI director with Mike Flynn and many other people, you know, whose whole stories you may not have heard before.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

It's an amazing series, all the President's.

[Ryan Macbeth]

Men by Sean Stone playing right now ontucker carlson.com we're proud to have it. We Think you'll like it.

[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. As 2025 approaches, you may have heard that it's right around the corner. The war in Ukraine is set to enter its third year. Now, the past 12 months have seen little dramatic movement along the front lines. Back and forth. It's like a World War I episode. But Russia continues its slow and grinding offensive, inching forward in some key areas. One of the most significant developments of 2024 has been the arrival, bizarrely of North Korean ground troops fighting alongside Russian forces. In recent days, reports indicate that these troops have begun to take casualties during clashes with Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk Province. Today we're going to take a look back at this year's key developments and what they mean for the conflict moving forward. Joining me for this discussion is open source intelligence analyst and very good friend of the show Ryan Macbeth. You can find more of Ryan's insights@ryan macbeth.substack.com or on his most excellent YouTube channel. And you should be watching that Ryan Macbeth programming. Ryan, thanks again for being willing to make a return appearance yet again on THE Situation report. Let's do a year in review for Ukraine and Russia for 2024.

[Ryan Macbeth]

Oh boy. You know, when the whole war started, the design cycles for drones, were they ever every six to eight months, you know, they had like a new kind of drone and now we're seeing the design cycles of six, six to eight weeks. It's really amazing what both sides have done with drone technology. It just, just, just recently with Russia inventing these FPV drones that spool wire out so they're essentially wire guided drones that can't be jammed. It's, it's also pretty amazing that Ukraine has developed some of its own ballistic and cruise missiles during wartime, which is a, it's a pretty heavy lift, you know, to design something like that, especially during a war when you're also trying to get beans and bullets to the front. The Kursk incursion essentially proved that Russia's nuclear threats are essentially nothing. If Russia was going to use a nuclear weapon, dropping it right on troops entering the Kursk offensive because there's one road going in and out of Kursk that that would have been an ideal place to use a nuclear weapon, would have stopped the advanced cold just like that. And they did not do that. So it's questionable as to whether or not Russia will even use nuclear weapons. It's actually pretty questionable as to whether nuclear weapons work all that well. After years of failed maintenance, one of the things that I pointed out is that in 2021, the US spent $50 billion on maintaining a nuclear stockpile, and Russia spent about $66 billion on their entire army. So we have a rough number of warheads. So take a wild guess whose warheads are probably in better condition. That's pretty much the situation. We have a front that is mostly stabilized, although the Ukrainians are slowly losing ground. They're going to have to close that loop somehow. But if you take a look at some sources, especially covert cabal who essentially buys satellite footage and then counts Russian tanks, Russia will probably be out of tanks by 2026 and other armored vehicles, and that's going to be a big problem when you can only manufacture about 50 tanks a month.

[Mike Baker]

All of that, I think it's a. That's a. Encapsulating a lot of stuff, right? And then this stuff is a technical term here. What would you say is the, the most significant development of 2024 when it comes to this conflict?

[Ryan Macbeth]

Probably the most significant development is the advent of North Korean troops inside Russia. You know, Russia has always had this deal with their elites. The elites have said, do whatever you want, just don't touch our boys. So Russia cannot do another general mobilization or Putin will end up hanging upside down outside a gas station like Mussolini. And by bringing in North Korean troops, Russia has this next source of troops so that it can put into the fight or at least perform rear line duties like guard depots or just do transportation, things like that. So you might have an unending source of men. Although North Korea's price for giving out those troops might slowly rise and rise. We want more oil, we want more tech, we want more this, we want more that. So there will always be a cost for those North Korean troops.

[Mike Baker]

What do you hear about the integration, the, the success of that of the North Korean troops into Russian military operations?

[Ryan Macbeth]

Seems like it's going pretty bad. There are extreme communication problems. There are North Korean troops who are. They have very, very difficult time understanding what the Russians want them to do. And then once they do it, they don't know how to act. And look, the Russian army that waltzed into Ukraine, I should say that stumbled into Ukraine in 2022, is not the same Russian army we have now. If you survived and you learned, you do have a measure of skill. And so you're coming into that as seasoned veterans. You may be combat weary, but you also have combat experience, whereas the North Koreans haven't fought war essentially since 1953. So they have no experience no idea what to expect. I can imagine there's some North Korean soldiers didn't even know that drones existed. And now you have first person view drones slamming into them. It must be an incredible shock. Like someone who's been on a lifeboat for years and they come home and all of a sudden there's new technology and such. It must be incredible to be a North Korean soldier to be thrown into this meat grinder.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Yeah.

[Mike Baker]

Well, not only did they not know the drones existed, they probably didn't know that porn on the Internet existed. Yeah, it's. It's a grand awakening for the entire North Korean contingent that's been shipped out there to the meat grinder. You mentioned the, the, the problem that Putin's got with, with his own personnel, with mobilizing again with a big conscription. At a certain point. Right.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

You.

[Mike Baker]

You can't. I mean, it's. The concept is, okay, I can fill some gaps with this supply of North Korean troops, but he can't build an effective military. Right. With when there is this massive cultural and language and experience gap. So at some point, do you think he's. He's got a legitimate manpower problem?

[Ryan Macbeth]

He absolutely does. Now this is starting to look a lot like Vietnam, where every president rolled in, was like, I'm going to fix Vietnam. And they went, oh, crap, we can't fix Vietnam. And now Russia's in this weird state where they can't really raise more troops. They're probably going to have to pay the North Koreans a heck of a lot more money to get more troops from them. And also their economy is in this weird wartime economy where Russia literally can't win. And by can't win, I don't mean they physically don't have the ability to win. They might have the ability to win, as in military victory, but if they do that, their economy collapses. They have this wartime economy that is overheating right now. Everybody is either in the army or they're working at a munitions plant or building vehicles. So the second this war ends now you have all these people who are jobless and know how to use a gun. What are they going to do? What happens when that kind of thing happens? Well, you get the child Chesky special, right. So they're in this weird situation where they can't stop the war, they can't win the war. They can't agree to a peace agreement because their economy will suddenly grind to a halt. So this is the most logical choice, is to actually keep the war going, as crazy as that sounds.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah. To what degree can you talk about the importance of outside economic support? I mean, there's two parts to this. Obviously. There's, there's the economic support, there's the actual provision of munitions and, and, and goods that, you know, they've been getting from North Korea or, or Iran. But how important has that been? Whether it's China, whether it's North Korea, whether it's Iran, how important is that outside help been to Putin and his economy and keeping this war effort going?

[Ryan Macbeth]

It's extremely important, mainly because Russia has a huge machine tools problem. It's something that not a lot of people talk about. Russia doesn't really manufacture advanced machine tools, and they get a lot of their machine tools from the West. Well, that's been cut off since 2022. So now they have this choice. We have machine tools. Do we use these machine tools to manufacture weapons? Do we use them to manufacture parts for oil rigs, which we need to sell oil in order to get money to pay our troops, or do we use these machine tools to manufacture the bogeys, the, the, the wheels that go under trains? So they have this horrible choice. And so if they can import weapons from Iran, import weapons from North Korea. I'm not sure any weapons are imported from China. I believe only tech. But if they could import that stuff, that takes some of the pressure off the machine tools that are needed to make other things.

[Mike Baker]

Have you heard anything about joint manufacturing capability? There'd been some reporting about a drone manufacturing facility in China that was established, maybe retooled to support Russia's war effort.

[Ryan Macbeth]

I actually haven't heard anything about a drone manufacturing facility in China. I know a special Economic zone was set up where Russia is building Iranian Shahed 130, 135 drones inside Russia using, I believe, African labor. Like they've imported these people from Africa to go and work. I haven't heard anything about China, though, although that's a tough one, because from what I understand, China doesn't mind buying Russian oil or selling the microchips in the form of microwave ovens that they can then disassemble. But I don't believe China has actually gone the direct route of selling weapons. That might be for a few reasons. One is that they might not want to anger the United States, who might throw tariffs on goods for them, for them exporting actual physical weapons. And the other is that, you know, China's, China's set a goal to invade Taiwan by 2027, so they need all the weapons they can get for that kind of thing. And there's only two, two times a year. You can do it, you can do it in October, you can do it in April. That's when the Strait of Taiwan sea state is low. So you know that that date is coming up tick tock. So I think we're looking at October 2027 is the date when China might try to make a move on Taiwan militarily. And they need all the stuff they.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Can get in order to do that.

[Mike Baker]

We got, ladies and gentlemen, that's some breaking news by 2027.

[Ryan Macbeth]

Right now, people, you know what people are doing right now?

[Mike Baker]

People are just, they're just ducking under their, their school desks right now. We've taken everybody back to the Cold War. Ryan, listen, you know, we've got terrific sponsors. We're going to hear from a few of them. When we come back with Ryan Macbeth. We're going to see if he can fit one more challenge coin back there on the shelf in his office. We have to take a quick break and we'll be right back. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. We're joined again by Ryan Macbeth. You can check him out@ryan macbeth.substack.com or and this is what you should be doing, going to his YouTube channel at Ryan Macbeth programming. Ryan, let's talk about Syria. Something happened out there, but let's talk about it in, in context of Russia. How significant is the fall of Assad's regime in Syria on Russia?

[Ryan Macbeth]

You know, the Russia used Syria as a staging base where they could get, they have an airport there and they have a, a port, like a port for ships. And they needed that base because Russian ships aren't very good and in order to go from place to place, they have to refuel. So that that one particular base allowed them to refuel and have an actual base in the Mediterranean where they could conduct operations. Now the other reason that, that Russia was in Syria was that it was an excellent way to farm xp. If you wanted to train your pilots in how to do precision bombing or in some cases not so precision bombing, you could do that in Syria and you could gain that experience. There are air controllers get experience, there are special forces get experience fighting ISIS or fighting elements of the resistance. And it's one of those things where everybody wins except for the resistance. The Russians get a little war that they can blood their soldiers on and get some training on their soldiers. But when you think about it, Russia has all this equipment in Syria and that could probably be used in Ukraine. So I think kind of toward the end, Russia was looking at Syria as a headache. It'd be nice to get rid of this thing. I mean, yeah, we need the base, but it'd be nice so we can give this thing back so we can move all this equipment over to Russia.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, it's a really interesting point because, I mean, you go back to 2015, 2016, Russia provided significant, critical military support to Assad at that point in time to beat back the, the rebels and the protests that they were experiencing. And it looks like this time around, Putin almost just threw his hands up and said, sorry, bud, we, we can't help you.

[Ryan Macbeth]

I think Russia saw where, where things were falling in Syria and plus, kind of like Vietnam, when we had the South Vietnamese, you had a dictator. And there was massive, massive corruption in Bashar Al Assad's army to the point where soldiers would pay their commanders not to show up. Like, you know, here's a couple of, here's a couple of Syrian pounds. I'm going to go work my civilian job. You just say, I was at roll call every day. And it's very difficult to run an army like that when you have those soldiers who don't actually exist in the ranks.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah. And a decent portion of that military was basically used to support the narco trafficking by the Assad regime that was taking place and unfortunately now is going to be picked up by, by someone else. Now, my intel sources tell me that you've got a theory related to the fall of, of Syria. What is that?

[Ryan Macbeth]

I do. I know. You know, it's, it's kind of like Domino's here. I actually, I think it goes back to the New York Times, and I've told Israelis about this. They say, all right, and you're crazy, you know, and I, I actually, I believe that this could be a good theory. Essentially, on October 17, 2023, the New York Times claimed that Israel bombed the Ali Arabia hospital. And actually it was an Islamic State missile that landed short, but again, a city. Archimedes had to fact check stuff. And so they said, oh, Israel bombed this place. That article was up for six hours. And that was when the world left the side of Israel. Israel lost the information war that day when the New York Times, when they kind of showed their anti Semitic face. And after that, Israel said, you know what? We're not going to win the information war. We're not going to run around randomly killing people, but we're going to go hard on Hezbollah because it's not like the world cares. We lost the New York Times. We Lost the public. We're just going to go hard. And so they went in hard on. On Hamas. Once they attributed Hamas to a certain level, they said, we're going to go in hard on Hezbollah. Once they went in hard on Hezbollah, Hezbollah actually had operators, genuine, honest to God, special forces inside of Syria. They were forming XP there, fighting against isis, dass, and fighting against the rebels. So what does Hezbollah do? They pull those guys back into Lebanon because they have to fight the Israelis. Now Assad has one less brigade of troops that can be reliable. And I strongly believe that hts, which is the organization that essentially took over Syria in 10 days, I believe they said, you know what? This is our opportunity. There's a, there's a reason why they invaded. The day they, they attacked Aleppo, the day that, that a ceasefire was signed between Hezbollah and Israel, they knew that Hezbollah wasn't coming back. All right, this one less brigade we got to worry about. We have 50 days to take all of Syria before President Trump gets in office and there's a new sheriff in town. That's exactly what they did. So I think it all goes back to the New York Times and a fake news story.

[Mike Baker]

Have you heard from the New York Times? Have they called to corroborate your theory?

[Ryan Macbeth]

I have not. And what's interesting is that about last year, I actually did a story on the New York Times. Like, why do they always consistently get military stories wrong? And after my research, what I found was that they only have eight people on staff who served in the military.

[Mike Baker]

Let's. Let's repeat that. So the entire New York Times staff, according to your research, they have only eight individuals who had any military experience?

[Ryan Macbeth]

That's correct. And that was as of last year, 2023. Around October. By 23, that's when I did my video on them. I have a feeling they haven't increased their personality. And some of those personnel were reporters. They were like audio engineers, janitors, that kind of thing. And the way to get it right is to hire good people. If you're going to have a person report on medicine, might want to be a doctor, maybe a PA or maybe a degree in hospital clinical, whatever. So if you're going to write articles about the military, it would help if some of your people had some military experience and they don't.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, no, I think that's, that's a good point. I was just out in the Middle east for past couple of weeks and oddly enough, leading up to. And then during the. The overthrow of the Assad regime and, you know, Watching some of the war correspondents or the journalists from a variety of networks trying to cover this thing kind of shifted anywhere between pathetic and laughable in terms of their understanding of what was going on. But they all knew that they, you know, this was a moment. It was basically, you know, look, look at me. I'm a war correspondent. But the. The level of information was. Was fairly sad. And I think it's in part because of that. Right. Just because you. You happen to be in a location, you've got a microphone, it doesn't mean that you understand what the hell is happening around you. Let's.

[Ryan Macbeth]

If.

[Mike Baker]

If we could. I'm going to shift gears, Ryan. I can't think of a better person to ask this question. The drones over the east coast of the United States, are they hobbyists? Are they Chinese regime drones? Do they belong to aliens? What's the actual answer here?

[Ryan Macbeth]

That's actually a good question. I. I honestly believe that originally. So. So let's see what they. They aren't. They're not drones coming from offshore from an Iranian mothership. If the Coast Guard had heard about that. Look, the Coast Guard goes after narcos, submarines. If they manage to capture an Iranian mothership launching drones, they'd never have to buy a beer again. Right? So it's not an Iranian mothership launching drones. Typically, if you were trying to be sneaky and surveil military bases, you wouldn't have your lights on. Right? You would have your navigation lights on. So we can probably say it's not that. What I believe is that most likely these drones were part of a Red team kind of exercise. Only people who needed to know about the exercise knew about the exercises. That's how you run a red Team. Right? And then after the exercise, everything became a drone. Helicopters became drones, low flying aircraft became drones. Everything became a drone. And some of this is compounded by the fact that people really don't know what the laws are for drones. It is perfectly legal to fly at night as long as you have your lights on. And the FAA considers drones that fall under the same rule as manned aircraft. So you can't actually shoot them down. Right. So there's a lot of misunderstanding in the public about the laws and what was going on.

[Mike Baker]

Now, but what about the. Look, I agree with you. I think a number of these sightings related to whatever the reason was red teaming or just, you know, U.S. government or military testing new technologies or capabilities. But what about the drone incursions over a variety of US Classified sites, military facilities in particular, I think one thing that, that is disturbing to the general public is that there's not protocol in place for the military or for the government to deal with incursions over sensitive airspace. Yeah, you're right. And so the public's just watching this and going, well, how. How do you possibly let these things just fly around over our facilities and you don't know, or you are at least saying that you don't know who they belong to?

[Ryan Macbeth]

You're absolutely right. Some of our laws might need to be changed, because like I said, the FAA treats drones like they're manned aircraft. So you can't just go around shooting them down. And you also can't jam them because the fcc, the Federal Communications Commission, does not allow civilians to use jammers. This would mean civilian police as well. So the police can't use jammers because they interfere with signals. The FCC bans them, can't have jammers. The military can use jammers. But I guarantee the second you turn that jammer on, everyone's going to complain about how their GPS isn't working or the military base, or how their, their cables out or whatever signal isn't working correctly. Seriously, we. We need a way to deal with this. And right now, our tools are very limited because our laws are kind of very 2006 when it comes to these, these kinds of drones. And I can understand why people would be frightened about these incursions, but legally, there's not a lot we can do because we can't shoot them down and we can't jam them. All we can do is put up a sign saying no drone zone, try to find the guy who's actually controlling those drones. And with the way the Internet works with satellite communication or even autonomous drones, that person could be anywhere. Or the drone could be totally autonomous and fly from place to place without any outside signal.

[Mike Baker]

Well, but, okay, I guess, you know, to play devil's advocate, I get that when you're talking about just drones flying over, you know, any old spot, but when you're talking about, like over this past weekend, Wright Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio had to shut down its airspace temporarily because of drone incursions.

[Ryan Macbeth]

Right.

[Mike Baker]

It's an air base. It houses some, you know, fairly significant military elements. You would think, or you would like to think, that the U.S. government and military are switched on enough and drones didn't just show up yesterday. Right. So drone technology has been around for some time, but you would think that when you're talking about an incursion over a classified or secure or sensitive Sight that the game changes and you just remove the threat and then deal with it later on. And perhaps if it's a hobbyist, you know, then okay, maybe that hobbyist learns not to do that crap later on. Am I missing something?

[Ryan Macbeth]

No, I think you're absolutely correct. It's just the legal tools in their toolkit may be limited also. Look, if you commanders tend to be fairly risk averse people, so they're taking, they're doing a risk assessment and they're going, all right, if I shoot this drone down, first of all, they have to have equipment to either degrade or destroy the drone in the first place. These anti drone guns, essentially you point them at the drone and then you pull the trigger and it sends a signal toward that drone and it sends the shutdown code of every possible drone in the inventory. That's why you have to react. You have to refresh update the software on those drone guns every once in a while because new shutdown codes come, right? So in order to do that, you have to have the shutdown, you have to have those, those weapons, those anti drone guns accessible. That's one thing. Now, if that drone is autonomous, can't shut it down by pointing an anti drone gun at it, right? Because it's not receiving any signals. It's just using GPS or it's using terrain matching in order to navigate. So you do something like that, all right, maybe you could degrade GPS at the airport, but who's going to complain about that? Everybody around the airport and the aircraft that are using GPS to land, that's another issue you have that you could also shoot them down. And now the question is, all right, let's say we put an M SHORAD system at an airfield to shoot down drones. Are you going to be responsible when that rocket overshoots that drone and lands in a neighborhood by Wright Patterson? Usually it's not a good idea to fire live ordinance around homes. Right.

[Mike Baker]

No, I, I get it. I get, you know, you don't, you don't want to, you know, launch a rocket into, into Mabel's living room while she's watching Will, unfortunately. But not to pick on people named Mabel. I don't know where the hell I came up with Mabel. No, it is a complex issue. But I think my point is, is I suppose that I'm just expressing the frustration I hear from a lot of people who ask me the question of, well, how can the government not have, you know, a protocol in place already, technology in place already for their most sensitive sites? Because this has been going on for some time. Ryan, that is a conversation we're going to have to pick up the next time. And I hope there is a next time. But listen, as always, man, I really, really appreciate your insight, your information and, and the background there in your office, Ryan Macbeth. Thank you. And as always, I hope when we call, Ryan picks up the phone again. Listen, that's. That's all the time we have for the PDB situation report. I know. Don't. Don't look so sad. If you have any questions or comments or even humorous anecdotes, please, or even limericks. I don't know if people do limericks anymore. Reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com because you know what we do? We take. We take some of those questions and some of those comments every month and we smash them together into what we call the Ask Me Anything episodes where we highlight some of your questions and your comments. So keep those cards and letters coming, please. And to listen to the podcast of the show ad free. Yeah, it's simple. Become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. see? I told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker, and until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.