PDB Situation Report | December 7th, 2024: Will Assad Survive in Syria? & Iranian Hackers Target Kash Patel

Summary

The President's Daily Brief: Episode Summary Release Date: December 7, 2024
Host: Mike Baker
Guest Experts: Brian Carter (Critical Threats Project, American Enterprise Institute), Eric O'Neill (Former FBI Counterintelligence Operative, Georgetown Group)

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Introduction

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief hosted by Mike Baker, two critical issues dominate the discussion: the escalating civil war in Syria and the surge in Iranian cyberattacks targeting key figures in the incoming Trump administration. Drawing insights from experts Brian Carter and Eric O'Neill, the episode delves into the complexities of the Middle East conflict and the evolving landscape of cyber threats against U.S. political figures.

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Syria: The Assad Regime Under Siege

Overview of the Situation

The civil war in Syria has intensified significantly over the past week, with rebel forces making substantial gains against President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Rebel factions have successfully captured two major cities, Aleppo and Hama, marking a pivotal moment that threatens to destabilize Assad's control over the region. The fall of Aleppo, in particular, is both symbolically and strategically damaging for the Assad government, as it was a long-contested urban stronghold.

Mike Baker (02:55):
"Start things off in Syria, where rebel forces continue their advance south, putting President Assad's regime on the defensive."

Brian Carter (02:57):
"Asad is definitely in big trouble."

Rebel Factions and Leadership

Brian Carter provides an in-depth analysis of the main opposition group leading the offensive: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Originating from former Al Qaeda factions, HTS has evolved under the leadership of Abu Mohammed Jolani, who has attempted to moderate the group's image and expand its alliances with minority communities in Syria. This strategic shift has facilitated HTS's recent successes, enabling them to capture territories with less resistance by negotiating with local Shia and Christian leaders.

Brian Carter (04:07):
"HTS has put together a conglomeration of different rebel groups... they've established a night fighting unit and have their own drone manufacturing capabilities."

Mike Baker (05:40):
"Are you buying this remake of the image? Are you, you know, do you believe that that's the case, or is he just doing that because it allows him to... advance the ball?"

Regional and International Dynamics

The conflict is further complicated by the involvement of multiple international players:

• Iran and Hezbollah: Strong allies of the Assad regime, providing critical support and military assistance. However, their capacity to aid is currently limited due to Russia's redeployment of forces to prioritize the Ukraine conflict.

• Russia: Historically a key supporter of Assad, Russia's limited involvement this time around may signal potential withdrawals, weakening Assad's position further.

• United States and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): The U.S. backs the SDF, a Kurdish-led group that has also made territorial gains, including the recent capture of Deir ez-Zor city. Despite their successes, the SDF's operations remain distinct from HTS, with limited coordination focused primarily on tactical evacuations.

Brian Carter (10:26):
"The Russians back Assad because they like having access to the ports along the western Syrian coast... as the position unravels, I expect we'll see more and more Russian withdrawals from Syria."

Potential Outcomes and U.S. Position

Brian Carter highlights the precariousness of Assad's regime, drawing parallels to the collapse of the Afghan National Army in 2021. He emphasizes that the U.S. has historically focused on containing ISIS rather than decisively defeating it, a strategy that has now allowed ISIS to regain strength in certain regions.

Brian Carter (16:43):
"What is going on in Syria right now is a byproduct of what we have seen successive administrations do for the past 15 years... This policy of, 'Oh, we can just manage and keep chugging along,' is really a failed policy."

Mike Baker (19:28):
"Let me just recap a little bit, because this is for me, one of the fascinating parts here is the outside players."

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Iranian Cyberattacks: Targeting the Incoming Administration

Overview of the Cyber Threat

Shifting focus to the cyber front, the episode addresses alarming reports of Iranian hackers intensifying their cyber-attacks against the incoming Trump administration. Notably, Cash Patel, the President-elect's nominee for FBI Director, has been successfully targeted, raising concerns about the security of high-level government positions.

Mike Baker (27:07):
"Now this week we learned that Iranian hackers are continuing their efforts to infiltrate the incoming Trump administration with reports indicating that they've successfully targeted Cash Patel, the President elect's nominee for the FBI."

Expert Insights on Cybersecurity

Eric O'Neill discusses the severity and sophistication of Iranian cyber operations. Highlighting that Iran is among the top cyber threat actors alongside China, Russia, and North Korea, he underscores the Iranian regime's persistent efforts to infiltrate and undermine U.S. political structures.

Eric O'Neill (28:23):
"Iran has been a threat actor against the United States for a long time. They really don't like us... They have a cyber campaign that's top tier."

Mike Baker (29:16):
"How aggressive have they been? How do they compare to the aggressiveness of the other key players?"

Eric O'Neill (29:51):
"They're very aggressive. ... It's the only real way they can hurt us."

Motivations Behind the Attacks

O'Neill elaborates on Iran's objectives, which include:

1. Espionage and Information Warfare: Accessing private communications and data of key political figures to gain strategic advantages and potentially embarrass or undermine them.

2. Disinformation Campaigns: Creating distrust in democratic processes and the credibility of elected officials.

Eric O'Neill (30:17):
"They want to uncover policy decisions. They want to look at communications... They also want to create disinformation campaigns, encourage Americans to lose faith in the Trump campaign and, you know, in the future presidency."

Challenges in Cybersecurity

The discussion highlights the inherent difficulties in safeguarding against such sophisticated cyber-attacks. Despite warnings and increased cybersecurity measures, breaches often occur due to the persistent and evolving nature of these threats.

Eric O'Neill (33:34):
"Every single campaign, every four years... these attacks always are successful in one shape or form. I'm not surprised."

Mike Baker (35:29):
"Are you surprised that people like Cash Patel... are you surprised that people aren't operating encrypted systems and Creating more security around their communications."

Eric O'Neill (36:02):
"The Bureau has... very good communication between government and corporations and cybersecurity companies about the threats... The FBI does do a pretty good job of getting the notice out."

Future Implications

O'Neill warns of the potential for more severe cyber-attacks on U.S. infrastructure, emphasizing the need for robust and proactive cybersecurity strategies across both government and private sectors.

Eric O'Neill (39:14):
"Any kind of future war or conflict is primarily in the west, going to be fought in cyber... we gotta talk about what we just learned about which has been this progressing story right now."

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Conclusion

The episode of The President's Daily Brief underscores the urgent and multifaceted challenges facing the United States. In Syria, the weakening of Assad's regime could lead to a significant power shift in the Middle East, with broader implications for regional stability and U.S. foreign policy. Concurrently, the rise in Iranian cyber-attacks targeting high-profile political figures highlights the evolving nature of international threats in the digital age. Experts Brian Carter and Eric O'Neill provide valuable perspectives on these issues, emphasizing the need for strategic policy adjustments and enhanced cybersecurity measures to address these pressing national security concerns.

Mike Baker (43:05):
"I hope to see you again here soon. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool."

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Notable Quotes:

• Brian Carter (02:57):
  "Assad is definitely in big trouble."

• Eric O'Neill (28:23):
  "Iran has been a threat actor against the United States for a long time. They really don't like us... Their cyber campaign is top tier."

• Brian Carter (16:43):
  "This policy of, 'Oh, we can just manage and keep chugging along,' is really a failed policy."

• Eric O'Neill (33:34):
  "These attacks always are successful in one shape or form. I'm not surprised."

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This detailed summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing a comprehensive overview for listeners seeking to understand the critical issues addressed in The President's Daily Brief on December 7th, 2024.

Transcript

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And this weekend our Situation Report is coming to you from London. Now that's in the United Kingdom. I'm just here for a few days getting my knighth. It's very exciting. All right, let's get briefed. Start things off in Syria, where rebel forces continue their advance south, putting President Assad's regime on the defensive. Brian Carter from the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute will join us to break down the latest developments in this incredibly complex situation. And isn't that what the Middle east needed now? More chaos? Next, we'll shift stateside, where Iranian hackers are ramping up their cyberattacks, reportedly breaching. The president elects nominee for FBI director Cash Patel. We'll get insights from former FBI counterintelligence operative and founding partner of the Georgetown group, Eric O'Neill. But first, the Situation Report. Spotlight the civil war in Syria broke wide open this week after rebels achieved significant victories by capturing two major cities, Aleppo and Hama, in a rapid offensive that has shaken the Assad regime's hold on the region. The fall of Aleppo, a long contested urban stronghold, marks a symbolic and strategic blow to the government. While Hamas capture further isolates Damascus, the regime's capital. These developments suggest a dramatic shift in momentum, with rebel factions increasingly uniting against President Assad's forces, who now appear to be in retreat. Joining me now for more on this is Brian Carter. He's the Middle east portfolio manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Brian, welcome to the show.

[Brian Carter]

Thanks for Having me?

[Mike Baker]

Absolutely. Listen, let's start with a. Let's start with a sort of a generic question here about Syria. How screwed is the region?

[Brian Carter]

I don't know how badly this will impact the region yet, but Assad is definitely in big trouble. And I think one of the things that we have to look at as we watch the regime sort of collapse and crumble is what other groups are going to take advantage of this situation and exploit it to their own ends. So for me, the big one to watch is going to be isis, which has really grown in strength in some of the regime areas, such as the central Syrian desert in the past couple of years. And I think that will have big impacts for, you know, the main US priority in Syria for the past 10 years now, which has been the defeat of ISIS.

[Mike Baker]

Can you set the table? I mean, again, this. I'd mentioned at the top of the show that this is a complex situation. That's putting it mildly. But for the viewers sake, can you kind of set the table on the rebel side? Who are the rebels? Where did they start from? How would you categorize them in terms of other groups out there in the Middle East?

[Eric O'Neill]

Sure.

[Brian Carter]

So I'll start with the big one, Hayat Tahrir Asham, which is the main opposition group that is conducting the offensive in kind of the north and western areas of Syria right now. So it was created by a man named Abu Mohammed Jolani. Jolani grew out of Al Qaeda in Iraq as a Al Qaeda guy, and he eventually took over the branch in Syria as Al Qaeda in Iraq began to transition in the Islamic State. He broke away from the Islamic State and pledged bayah, or allegiance, to Zawahiri, Al Qaeda's leader at the time. However, over the years, he's kind of tried to moderate himself and has begun to present himself less as a Salafi jihadi like Al Qaeda or the Islamic State, and more of what we call a political jihadists. He's not interested, or he says he's not interested in external attacks outside of Syria, and instead, in recent years, has put a lot of effort into rehabilitating his image, working with minorities in the northwest of Syria. And this is one of the things actually, that has made his offensive, his group's offensive so successful is he's actually, when he liberates towns from the regime, he's doing it oftentimes without fighting because he will negotiate with local Shia or Christian notables and say, hey, if you join me, we're not going to have any problems.

[Mike Baker]

I mean, that all sounds very nice and political. Right? I mean, he's, he's, he's remaking his image. I'm sure he's got a public relations firm working with him on this. But do you believe it does? I, I mean, is. This is just. He's doing this, you know, as window dressing. Because I think people, when, when folks first heard that Assad was, was taking this, this pressure and there was a real problem for his regime, I think that the initial reaction from a lot of people was, oh, that's good. But the concern is always what comes in behind. And I think the more that people are hearing about what HTS is all about, this main group and those that are kind of cobbling together with him, I mean, are you buying this remake of the image? Are you, you know, do you believe that that's the case, or is he just doing that because it allows him to, you know, advance the ball?

[Brian Carter]

Possibly. But I think he's also learned a lot over his career. He kind of seems to have evolved through the years. And so he started in that very Salafi, jihadi, very sectarian mindset. And I think one of the things that we're seeing now and what he is doing, especially in engaging with the Shia and the Iraqis diplomatically, is he says things in a way that signals to me that he has learned some lessons. He knows the Shia fear these Sunni militant groups, you know, breathing down their necks. And he knows that's one of the reasons that Assad was able to convince so many people to fight for him back in the early 2010s. And I think that's really notable. Now, granted, Jelani is operating from a position of, I mean, he's increasing, getting stronger every day, but a weaker position. So when he gains power, does he maintain this sort of mindset? I don't know.

[Mike Baker]

Now, again, there are so many layers here. What I'm hoping you'll do for us is kind of simplify what's happening, if that's possible, because there are a number of players, right. It's not just the Assad regime, the Syrian regime. And now the Syrian regime is essentially, not to oversimplify, but it's essentially an offshoot of Shia. So they are receiving significant support from the Iranian regime. But who are the, who are the players out there? Because there are a number of them.

[Brian Carter]

Yeah, sure. So I kind of walk through. I'll walk through the regime and I'll walk through who the US Is backing, all that sort of stuff. So the regime, Bashar Al Assad is an Alawite from the sort of western coast of Syria. One of the reasons that this area was so hard to. For the opposition to gain any ground in back in the early 2010s was because there was a fear among the Alawite minority that were Assad to fall, the Sunni would retaliate against them. So that is one of the reasons he's able to build up Assad is able to build up such support there. Now the Iranians back Assad and the Iranian backed Shia groups in the region back Assad because they see him as critical to their regional aspirations. So they see him as a way, as a conduit to get weapons to Hezbollah, for example, and to kind of strengthen themselves at the expense of the Gulf states and other Sunni powers in the region. Now, U.S. is backing a Kurdish group called the Syrian Democratic Forces in northeast Syria. Now that group has begun also taking some territory from the Assad regime. We actually just saw them take Deir EZ Zor city this morning, which is a very big development. Deir EZ Zor city has been under regime control for many years. It's on the western bank of the Euphrates River. The Syrian Democratic Forces were the US Partner chosen to destroy or defeat ISIS during the campaign that the United States kind of led in northeastern Syria. It contains a large contingent of Kurdish groups that were built out of a cadre of a Kurdish organization called the ypg, which is affiliated with the pkk. So Turkey has big problems with the pkk. The United States sees the PKK as a terrorist organization. So it gets very, very complex nonetheless, that the Kurds have also incorporated some Arab elements, which is why I think you see those Arab elements agitating to liberate some of their homes on the western side of the Euphrates River.

[Mike Baker]

Okay. Now, as if there weren't folks attending this party, you've also got the Russians.

[Brian Carter]

Yeah. The Russians, for their part, haven't been able to actually help Assad during this round of fighting because they're running into a situation where they have to prioritize Ukraine and so they can't send him the sort of forces that he needs to be able to turn the tide. The Russians were the critical actor that turned the tide in 2015. The Iranians realized they couldn't do it alone and asked the Russians to help provide air power. The Russians provided that air power and Assad started to kind of turn the tide on his opposition. So the Russians back Assad because they like having access to the ports along the western Syrian coast. And again, Assad's kind of home country. But as the position unravels, I expect we'll see more and more Russian withdrawals from Syria.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, and I think they've always. I mean, obviously during the Cold War, Syria was aligned with the Soviet Union. And I think they still see it historically as sort of their foothold in the Middle east, their ability to have more influence in the Middle East. So you've got the Russians, you've got the Iranians, you've got the U.S. you've got Turkey, you've got a variety of different groups, the Kurds and others all engaged out there. To what degree do you think Assad is actually in danger? What are the chances he collapses, his regime collapses?

[Brian Carter]

I think if you asked me that question on Monday, I would have said I think the rebels have had a lot of success. HTS has had a lot of success, but it's pretty unlikely today. I think it's greater than 50% and it's really getting higher every hour. The complete collapse of regime forces has been astonishing. Personally, I've compared it to the way that the Afghan national army began to collapse in 2021 and the ramifications of that. So I really think that he is in danger. And one of the key pieces that we're looking at right now is whether or not home city will fall here in the coming days in the list.

[Mike Baker]

Of priorities, you know, where is Homs in terms of size and importance to compared to, say, Aleppo, Damascus, Kama.

[Brian Carter]

Yeah. So Homs, in my view, is probably second only to Damascus. Homs is very important because if the opposition take homes, it cuts off Assad from that home country. I was talking about that western coast. So once he's cut off there, he is in very dire straits.

[Mike Baker]

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Let me bring back our guest, Brian Carter of the American Enterprise Institute. Brian, thanks very much for sticking around. We'll need about another 12 hours, it seems, to sort through the complexity of the Syrian situation. But where do you think, or how would you describe. Let me put it that way, how would you describe the current U.S. administration's position on what's happening in Syria?

[Brian Carter]

What is going on in Syria right now is a byproduct of what we have seen successive administrations do for the past, you know, going on 15 years. This isn't Obama problem, a Trump problem or a Biden problem. It's really all of them. The US policy in Syria, especially since after the territorial defeat of isis, has been in air quotes, defeat isis, but we haven't actually been doing the things to defeat isis. We've been containing isis. And so I think we've looked at this conflict for so long as a frozen conflict and we're saying, okay, well, the Assad regime has practically won and these borders aren't going to change anytime soon. And it will just keep chugging along like this. But you know, this situation just goes to show you can't really freeze or manage a conflict that runs the risk of being surprised in this way. And you know, I talked a little bit at the beginning of the program about how ISIS is strengthening in some of these regime held areas. Well, U.S. central Command and policymakers weren't willing to strike in those areas very often to really get at ISIS there. So now you have a problem where ISIS knew it could be interfered with the regime, but the regime is far less effective than the United States and the sdf. And so it strengthened there. And now we got surprised. And I think we're going to have to really do some hard thinking about what our policy objectives are in Iraq and Syria going forward, especially as it relates to isis. If you look at Iraq, we're saying, oh, we're going to withdraw in 2026. Do you really want to withdraw in 2026 now, having seen what's happening in Syria? So I think this policy of, oh, we can just manage and keep chugging along is really a failed policy. And it was the easy policy to take, but it was the wrong one.

[Mike Baker]

Not to disappear down that rabbit hole. But it kind of mirrors what we've been doing in Ukraine, right? The US Government tends to love status quo and so, you know, give them just enough to kind of keep things the way they are and just keep kicking it down the road. Let's get another ceasefire going in Gaza and, and that'll, you know, make it not our problem. And then somebody, you know, eight years or 10 years down the road can deal with it. I, I sound like one of those two old guys sitting up in the balcony in the Muppet Show. I don't know if you remember them. I just like, that's how I go through life nowadays, Brian, is. I just sit up in the balcony and I just say cynical things. But why, why now? As far as the Rebels go, what prompted this offensive?

[Brian Carter]

Yeah, sure. So it's not entirely clear to me why they chose to go. Now, I have a feeling that they probably had some sense that the regime around the Aleppo area was hollowing out and they thought they might have an opportunity to do this. I don't think they thought they would be as successful as they were. The initial objectives of the campaign, insofar as I understand, was actually to push the regime a little further away from the HTS controlled zone in northwestern Syria, centered around Idlib province, and kind of push back regime artillery to prevent the regime from shelling civilian areas. Now, once the regime kind of just collapsed, they took advantage of that. They exploited that situation. HTS did, capturing Aleppo and then driving towards Hama and capturing Hama, and now they're well on their way to Homs. So I think it started as kind of like a small scale, a relatively small scale campaign. Of course, in a Syria that's had static lines of control for so many years, it would have been a big deal, but it really exploited it and it's become something much larger, much quicker than anybody could have expected.

[Mike Baker]

Do we have any real credible or accurate sense of troop strength for the rebels?

[Brian Carter]

No, not to my knowledge, at least. The rebel coalition was forged by HTS over several years and they had basically put together a conglomeration of different rebel groups. And I'm not exactly sure the exact size of those forces.

[Mike Baker]

How well armed are they?

[Brian Carter]

They're pretty well armed. They've been doing some things in recent years to kind of prepare for something like this. So for example, they established a night fighting unit that's really been giving the Syrian Arab Army a lot of trouble. So fighters, I believe they're equipped with night vision and that sort of equipment. They also have their own drone manufacturing capabilities, which is really impressive. They also have done some soft things. And what I mean by soft things is things like training. How can you coordinate between these different rebel bodies? How do we professionalize our force? So, for example, HTS founded a sort of like a war college in their controlled areas that began producing more professional military officers. And I think that's really played a role in this offensive.

[Mike Baker]

Just to recap a little bit, because this is for me, one of the fascinating parts here is the outside players. So Russia is providing some support, they are providing some assistance. Iran is providing some assistance, all to the Assad regime. So you have that element on the rebel side. You've got, let's separate the US and the SDF from now. Is there any Coordination that I should ask this. Is there any coordination between the sdf, which is backed by the US and the hts, and other elements of that rebel group?

[Brian Carter]

Coordination that's going on between HTS and SDF is very, very tactical in nature and very designed around making, like, safe routes for evacuation and stuff like that. So, for example, when the. When HTS took Aleppo, they created a safe zone for the SDF to begin evacuating their fighters from Aleppo. And in fact, one of the things HTS did was they tried to prevent some of the more. I'll say thuggish and more militantly Salafi jihadi factions backed by the. By Turkey, from interfering with the SDF's evacuation.

[Mike Baker]

Well, look, the comcar is jammed, but we haven't even talked about Hezbollah. Right? Hezbollah is sending fighters into Syria to help. So, yeah, we've got more to talk about here, Brian, and so I hope you'll come back when we call. Please pick up the phone. Brian Carter, Middle East Portfolio Manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Look, man, really appreciate it. Thank you so much for your time. Wow, you thought the Middle east was complicated, and then Syria kicks off. Okay, coming up next, Iranian hackers are ramping up their cyber attacks, now reportedly targeting key members of Trump's incoming administration. We'll explore what that means for U.S. security with former FBI counterintelligence operative Eric O'Neill, and he'll be with us when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Look, it's. It's. It's been a month, right, since America wrapped up a historic election. You might have heard something about it. Yeah, just happened. While the White House may be preparing for change, as they always do, the core challenges facing the country, well, they frankly remain the same. Look, the dollar continues its decline as the US adds. Get this. $100,000 in new debt every second. Yeah. Oh, there goes another hundred thousand. Oh, and another. And. Well, you see what I'm saying? It just keeps adding up. Meanwhile, BRICS nations, right, are moving forward with what they call the unit. Catchy name. Their new global currency pegged 40% to gold and 60% to BRICS member currencies. Yeah, they're attacking the dollar. This shift could signal the start of a global monetary reset, possibly one that reshapes the balance of financial power worldwide. Now, what do you do about it? Well, I've got one answer for you. Call the proud Americans of the Patriot Gold Group today before it's too late. Now, mention pdb, and you'll always get Best in class service from Patriots Protecting Patriots. Patriot Gold Group has the no Fee for Life ira where your IRA or 401k can be in physical gold and silver and you may qualify. You may be eligible for the no Fee for Life Iraq Unqualifying rollovers. So call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. And don't forget Patriot Gold Group is Consumer affairs top rated Gold IRA dealer for seven years in a row and I'm here to tell you that's a lot of years in a row. Call 1-888-870-5457.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Now this week we learned that Iranian hackers are continuing their efforts to infiltrate the incoming Trump administration with reports indicating that they've successfully targeted Cash Patel, the President elects nominee for the FBI. Now this isn't the first time that Iran has set its sights on Trump's team. Just in September, the Justice Department unveiled charges against three hackers tied to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc, for compromising the electronic accounts of Trump campaign aides and others. These incidents highlight Tehran's aggressive cyber strategy aimed at influencing US Politics and security. For more on this, let me bring in former FBI counterintelligence operative and founding partner of the Georgetown group, Eric O'Neill. Now, he's also the author of an excellent book. It's called Gray My Undercover Mission to Expose America's First Cyber Spy. Eric, thanks very much for joining us.

[Eric O'Neill]

It's my pleasure. It's great to be back on the program.

[Mike Baker]

Let's talk about this, you know, at the 30,000 foot level. First of all, how, how serious and, and how successful has the Iranian regime been thus far in their cyber attacks and their hacking efforts?

[Eric O'Neill]

Yeah, Iran has been a threat actor against the United States for a long time. They really don't like us, and they made that very obvious. Not just by chanting death to America in the streets. Their cyber campaign has been top tier. One of my biggest concerns is their ability to attack US Critical infrastructure. Over the past decade, they've been caught in the U.S. power grid launching what's called probe attacks, and in those attacks, a cyber attacker. This is cyber espionage, really. We'll see how deep they can get within a network that manages the flow and connections of our power. And what they want to do is they want to find a way in. They want to hide there and do what's called maintain persistence. And the idea, of course, is if there is any future conflict or they just want to hurt us, they can trigger an attack that could cause some sort of cascade attack.

[Mike Baker]

I'm sorry for interrupting, but I think what people think about that. Right. I want to focus in a second on the attacks against the Trump administration in particular and their efforts to hack into those accounts. But when people hear about the infrastructure, whether it's the power grid or it's, you know, wastewater or whatever it might be, transportation, I think a lot of times they think the perpetrators are essentially the Chinese or the Russians. So, you know, where, where do the Iranians fit in this? I mean, how, how aggressive have they been? How do they compare to the aggressiveness of the other key players?

[Eric O'Neill]

They're very aggressive. And you add in North Korea, too, and you've got the big four. Those are the big four countries that are coming after the US with cyber attacks, espionage related cyber attacks more than any other country. And Iran is up there. I mean, is the way they can hurt us? It's the only real way they can.

[Mike Baker]

Hurt us, Eric, with their efforts against the incoming administration, key players within the Trump world. What is their objective, do you think?

[Eric O'Neill]

Well, they don't like Trump. They haven't liked Trump since 2020 when the attack resulted in the successful killing of Kassim Soleimani. They're still angry about that. And look, when a nation state doesn't like a certain political candidate, they get involved in the election and find a way to maybe hurt that person. And they've been going after the Trump campaign since the summer. Two of the members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were indicted for an attack in August of this year, and they were indicted in September for an attack in August. And now the most recent attack, you know, the most high profile one, they're going after all Trump and his associates. Was the nominee for the FBI director or something. You know, I'm really interested in Kash Patel as Trump's pick for the FBI director. And he was directly targeted in a Iranian cyber attack. And I could, I could promise you we're going to see a lot more of this.

[Mike Baker]

Are they looking for specific intel or, you know, is there a specific priority target that they're going after, or is this more about just seeing what they can get up to, seeing what sort of chaos they can create, just kind of hoovering up whatever is out there?

[Eric O'Neill]

Well, there are a couple of reasons for an intelligence group to launch attacks against a campaign. One is they want to uncover policy decisions. They want to look at communications. And from what we know from the attack on Patel, it looks like they were able to access some of his private communications and get into his data. That could be email, it could be his phone records, efforts, because they want to know what the future FBI director is going to do, you know, against the Iranian threat here on our soil or in cyberspace. That's very helpful to any country who is in conflict with us. You know, they also want to. Probably want to create disinformation campaigns, you know, encourage Americans to lose faith in the Trump campaign and, you know, in the future presidency. That's right around the corner. Starting right around the corner. And, you know, Russia does this, China does this, and Iran also plays in the same game.

[Mike Baker]

No, I think that part of it is definitely true and has been for quite a long time. Right. If you could, if you could chip away at the credibility of democracy. You know, sometimes I think the American public gets wrapped up in the idea that, you know, they're favoring one team or the other. Right. Oh, you know, Putin wants this person to win. The Chinese want this person to win. You know, sometimes it literally is just going after the credibility of, of free and fair elections or going after democracy and its concepts to, you know, sort of create this dissatisfaction, and they've been very successful, I would argue, from that, that point of view. But are you surprised that. That, you know, people like, like Cash Patel, others who have been in security positions within the government and have been, you know, for some time now in sort of the, the world of the leading presidential candidate coming through the election season, the campaign season, are you surprised that people aren't operating encrypted systems, you know, and Creating more security around their communications.

[Eric O'Neill]

Every single campaign, every, every four years, and even in the two year congressional campaign seasons, there is an alert by the FBI and CIA and others saying that there are attacks that are coming. Be prepared, be ready, upgrade your cybersecurity. But these attacks always are successful in one shape or form. I'm not surprised. I wish I could say I was surprised. But some of these attacks are insidious and they're very hard to defend against. Yes, we should see them coming. I don't blame him for being breached now. It is a little embarrassing. And you know, there's a feather in the cap for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, their cyber attack group, to say that we got the potential future director of the FBI. I am worried about what data they did steal because they could use it to embarrass him or undermine him if he does take the seat as the Director in the Hoover Building. But I think we need to do better. We need to do better across not only government and future government, but all industries and defending against a very persistent and current threat in nation state cyber attacks.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, it does seem like those that are on the offensive, right? I mean, whether it's the Iranian regime or any other state sponsored effort or you know, pseudo state sponsored effort, it does seem like they, they, they are so aggressive that they can almost stay one step ahead. Right. You come up with another defense mechanism, you come up with another way of preventing an attack. They've already moved on. Right. So, you know, I'm not being critical because it is a difficult thing whether you're in the private or public sector. But I am surprised sometimes that the security that's implemented within a campaign team isn't already as good as it can possibly be.

[Brian Carter]

Right.

[Eric O'Neill]

It should be better and they need to do better. And every four years we have to do better. I'm just. Every four years we don't. And so that's why I'm not surprised.

[Mike Baker]

How good is the guidance and how proactive is the guidance from the FBI when it comes to reaching out to these, the various campaigns? But also, let's talk about the corporations too. Is it a two way dialogue or is it okay, we've issued another memo, we've talked about a threat, off we go. I mean, how proactive is the Bureau in this effort?

[Eric O'Neill]

Yeah, the Bureau has a group called the IC3, the Internet Crime Complaints center, but it is also a threat researcher. They do an enormous amount of outreach about potential attacks, attacks you need to prepare for. They will even give hashes or information about the specific malware that is upcoming and how to defend against it. There are all sorts of resources and there is a, there is very good communication between government and corporations and cybersecurity companies about the threats. Obviously government, we have the FBI and the NSA and the CIA are able to see a lot of this before it hits the streets. And the faster that can be rolled out for the threat hunters, for the cyber security professionals, the better. So it is out there and the FBI does do a pretty good job of getting the notice out. I know all the campaigns are warned that the threat is coming. I think that Trump campaign has been told by a bunch of different groups, including Microsoft and other big tech companies, saying that they have stopped massive amounts of phishing attempts against their personal accounts and their business accounts. I mean, they know that Iran is coming too, because they can see where the attacks are coming from.

[Mike Baker]

But that coordination between the Bureau and other elements of the government and the private sector in particular, I think is really important because sometimes I think in the past it's always struck me as sort of a one way, hey, you tell us what's happening, right? So if you, if you get breached as a company, you come and report it to us. Right? But you know, I sometimes have worried that there hasn't been a sharing of information to the degree possible. So it's good to hear that that's been improving. It's, it's increasing.

[Eric O'Neill]

It is.

[Mike Baker]

We're going to take a quick break and then we'll be Back to the PDB Situation Report with Eric O'Neill. And by the way, if you haven't picked up his new book, Gray My Undercover Mission to Expose America's First Cyber Spy, then shame on you. Get out there, get that book during the break and then we'll be right back.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the BDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is former FBI counterintelligence operative and founding partner of the Georgetown Group, Eric O'Neill. Eric, thanks very much for sticking around. You talked about at the beginning of this, you talked, you mentioned the hacking, the cyber attacks that take place in the critical infrastructure of the U.S. can you elaborate on that? How bad is it? How aggressive is it? Talk more about not just the Iranians, but other key players and you know, what their game plan is. But how insidious is it?

[Eric O'Neill]

Well, it's pretty insidious. Like I said, the Big four have been attacking US Critical infrastructure lodging what's called probe attacks, where they want to get in and be able to just lurk there. The technical term is maintain persistence. Because any kind of future war or conflict is primarily in the west, going to be fought in cyber. It's going to be denying the things that we need and love to be happy as humans. You know, our power, our gas, our water. Look, we gotta talk about what we just learned about which has been this progressing story right now. And this goes back to Chinese espionage in attack group called Salt Typhoon that apparently for the last year or two has been lurking in at least eight U.S. telecom providers. So that's your phone in your pocket. It's quite possible that as you made a call or sent a text, Chinese spies have been reading it. And in fact, even though we know about it and now we know that they've been there for a year or two, the US can't kick them out. They're using part of the telecom infrastructure that allows government agencies like the FBI to use backdoors. And when they have warrants to get phone information, they're able to exploit that using different methods and cyberattacks and get in and steal some of this information. So they like the Chinese government, they're Chinese government spies and they're stealing information from telecom networks. They've stolen plenty of data and they're going to use it for espionage and potentially downstream disruptive purposes. You know, if there's a crisis or a conflict, they can use this information.

[Mike Baker]

Is there a connection between, with Salt Typhoon and what they have been engaged in and the fact that for years now regional telecoms providers in the US have been buying, because it's low cost, buying Chinese hardware to use in their telecom systems. You know, is it, is that, or is that just. Look, they're doing whatever they can to get within our systems and to access whatever information is possible.

[Eric O'Neill]

Right. Well, I don't think it's legal. We can't legally buy, like US Companies can't legally buy certain Chinese, you know, telecom or communications hardware. And they shouldn't be buying a lot of it. And I didn't see that we don't know the exact way that they got in, but we do know that they, they got in and they. What's been revealed right now is they leverage known security flaws in telecom net. Telecom networks. How do they do it? They probably used a combination of attacking employees that you can do that through spear phishing. You can attack unpatched flaws. It's quite possible that there is some technology that China has gotten into the network. I mean, these are massive infrastructure networks. You know, China has been known to put chips and routers that, that are built in China and the UX uses. And now you've got a spy living in your home because you bought that brand, the router.

[Mike Baker]

I don't know if you can see it, but I've got my shocked face on right now. Eric.

[Eric O'Neill]

Yes, well, be shocked because just this is, this is espionage. This is, this is the, the bread and butter of espionage to get a list of. To. To compromise. Exactly. And this is a masterclass in foreign espionage.

[Mike Baker]

Listen, I got to say, this has been, this has been really, really great. And you, you've been a very good friend of the show. I hope you'll pick up the phone the next time we call. Eric O'Neill, former FBI counterintelligence operative, founding part of the Georgetown Group thank you, man, for joining us today and I hope to see you again here soon.

[Eric O'Neill]

Yeah, you're very welcome in any time. I love the show.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, man, I tell you what, between our conversations about Syria and our conversations about cybersecurity and protecting your information and that of the US Government and other countries, well, it's maybe next weekend we'll have a cheery conversation. Right? That's all the time we've got for the PDB Situation Report. It's been a delight to bring this weekend's show to you from. From London, England. Next week we'll be bringing it to you from the Middle east from an undisclosed location. But now listen, if you have any questions or comments, I want you to reach out to me at PDB, the first tv.com it's, it's always, always a happy day at the PDB Secret Lair when Carl the Mailman drops off this mailbag chock full of your questions and comments. And then what happens is our mail room takes the most interesting and also the most bizarre questions and comments and we smoosh them together into what we call our monthly Ask Me Anything episodes. Also to listen to the podcast ad free. Right. Well, you know what to do. Just become a premium member of the President's daily brief by simply visiting pdbpremium.com I told you it was very simple. I'm Mike Baker, and until next time, from some location somewhere in the world, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.