The President’s Daily Brief – Situation Report

Episode: February 14, 2026: The Iran–China Axis Exposed & Immigration Sweep Concludes
Host: Mike Baker (The First TV)
Guests:

• Josh Philip, Senior Investigative Reporter, The Epoch Times
• Art Arthur, Center for Immigration Studies
  Release Date: February 14, 2026

Episode Overview

In this Situation Report, host Mike Baker delivers a deep-dive into two major international and domestic issues:

1. The intensifying U.S. pressure campaign on Iran, including its broader context regarding China, global strategy, and Latin America, with analysis from Josh Philip.
2. The conclusion of Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota, a large-scale immigration enforcement effort, and what it signals for the Trump administration's evolving immigration strategy, discussed with Art Arthur.

Segment 1: The Iran–China Strategic Axis and Its Implications

Timestamps: 00:12–33:01

Setting the Stage

• Baker opens by underscoring that the U.S. is ramping up efforts against Iran. But "is the real target China?" (00:16)
• He notes the interconnectedness of global geopolitics, suggesting that the U.S.-Iran confrontation might be a move within a wider game against the China-Russia-Iran axis.

The China–Iran–Russia Alignment

Josh Philip (Senior Investigative Reporter, The Epoch Times)

• "Iran is one of the three main pillars of the Chinese Communist Party’s system of power globally. You could say that Russia, China and Iran are like the three core ones." (03:19)
• These alliances extend to other states—Brazil, Venezuela, North Korea—alongside deeper involvement in Latin America.

The Four Wars Doctrine & U.S. Response

• Philip references a known CCP “four-war” strategy:
  "Xi Jinping’s main advisor said that if China were to invade Taiwan ... they would have to get America involved in multiple other wars ... [to] divide [U.S.] military enough ... proposed a four-war strategy."
  • Conflicts in Russia, a terror proxy (Iran), Latin America, and East Asia—intended to overwhelm U.S. military capacity. (04:17)
• "Now that I see Trump overturning these regimes, ... Trump is trying to prevent these wars from taking place personally. I think Trump might have actually checkmated them already." (05:13)

Latin America: A Strategic Battleground

• Venezuela's near-invasion of Guyana described as a potential CCP-Russia-Iran project for regional and economic leverage.
  • "Had [Venezuela] invaded, you would have had China, Russia involvement... Iran is very heavily involved in Latin America ... training camps for Hezbollah, even Mexico, even in Tijuana..." (07:57)
  • U.S. threatened consequences; shortly after, U.S. interventions began targeting Venezuelan drug boats and eventually ousted Maduro. (09:01)
  • Offers analysis that the U.S. is thwarting the broader strategy by blocking these regime moves and preventing “destabilizing force[s] for the United States.” (08:48)

The Depth of the Iran–Latin America Connection

• Philip details how “Cuba is kind of one of the main proxies,” historically tied to Venezuela and, by extension, China and Iran.
  • “Most of the communist organizations throughout Latin America were all involved. They facilitated the Pink Wave ... push[ing] out the United States and ... bring[ing] in Chinese, Russian and Iranian influence.” (11:17)

Weaponized Corruption via the Drug Trade

• "Drugs are a tool for weaponized corruption ... If you can control a country with gangs ... whoever controls the corruption controls the country." (12:26)
• The CCP supplies precursors, manages money laundering, controls ports—coordinating with Russia, Iran, corrupt politicians, and transnational criminal groups.

Key Global Insight

• Mike Baker: "Nothing happens in a bubble anymore. The world is interconnected, so you can’t look at ... US and Venezuela... What's the next level of that, what's connected to that...?" (13:29)

Memorable Quote

"Nothing happens in a bubble anymore. The world is very interconnected, so you can't look at ... [events] in a vacuum ... the tendency was to look at what is the US and Venezuela, what are they doing? ... That's typically missed, how that plays out on a larger stage."
— Mike Baker (13:29)

The Unseen Role of Iran in Latin America (Post-break)

Phillip expands:

• Iran is "brought in right alongside Russia and China," both economically and through entities like Hezbollah.
  • Terror financing via the drug trade; smuggling networks enable not only narcotics but also movement of terrorists and materials (20:57)
  • “Hezbollah even had training camps in Tijuana ... working with the cartels.” (22:19)

National Security Implications of Border Policy

• Both Baker and Philip lament the lack of recognition of the “national security implications of a porous border.”

  "If you don’t know who's coming across your border, that's a national security problem."
  — Mike Baker (23:23)

• “You have some countries that operate completely or almost completely in underground economies ... Iran is not entirely, but heavily, an underground economy.” (24:54)

On Venezuela, Cuba, and CCP Power

• The CCP follows a Maoist strategy: “Surround the cities ... same thing with America, can’t take America out militarily, but we can surround America,” especially via Latin America and economic entanglement. (27:35)
  • Belt and Road Initiative as a vector for corruption and dependency.
  • CCP seeks to “make America ... one seat at the global table. And our voice ... is no more influential than Uganda or Venezuela or Bangladesh.” (28:07)

The U.S. Response: Limiting CCP Influence

• Trump administration's new carrot-and-stick policy:

  "What is Trump telling Venezuela? ... You’re not going to do anything with [your oil] ... until you push out Chinese, Russian and Iranian influence."
  — Josh Philip (31:15)

• Early but “the discussions are happening and the oil is being traded,” suggesting political pushback on Chinese/Russian/Iranian influence in Venezuela. (32:35)

Segment 2: Immigration Enforcement – Operation Metro Surge Concludes

Timestamps: 33:01–61:40

Background

• The Trump administration announced the end to Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota, after over 4,000 immigration arrests since November. (33:11)
• DHS official Tom Homan credits "coordination with local law enforcement and enforcement successes" for drawdown. (33:24)

Insights from Art Arthur, Center for Immigration Studies

Why End the Operation Now?

• "It's actually a combination of both [enforcement success and controversial incidents]." (36:51)
• Internal dispute within the administration about the right approach for interior immigration enforcement—targeting criminal aliens vs. broader sweeps.

Best Practices in Enforcement

• Art Arthur advocates for targeted arrests:

  "If two officers go to a local jail, identify a criminal alien ... we know that we're going to get that person. If you send people to a Target parking lot or the local Home Depot ... maybe you'll find people and maybe you won't. That's never been the way immigration enforcement has been done." (38:40)

• Emphasis on the importance of political acceptability for long-term effectiveness.

Narrative, Messaging, and Politics

• Baker highlights the importance of clear messaging, especially going into midterms:

  "Maybe provide more information about who those people are so you can ... bolster this argument that you are going after the criminal element." (41:27)

• Arthur: "A lot of this has to do with messaging. A lot of it has to do with a media that ... became complacent with the non-enforcement of the Biden administration." (42:10)
• Widespread public misunderstanding of how enforcement actually works; media images often fail to show targeted, intelligence-driven arrests.

The Lake and Riley Act

• New legislation (Lake and Riley Act) expands ICE responsibilities:
  • Must pick up low-level criminals (shoplifters, larsonists) and all aliens under final removal orders.
  • "There were 1.15 million instances of shoplifting ... I'm not going to say majority ... were aliens, but a significant number were ... Now under the Lake and Riley Act, they must pick those people up." (44:41)
  • "Half ... of all aliens under final removal orders ... have a criminal history." (45:51)
• Balancing political base ("full enforcement") and undecided voters ("targeted, just criminal aliens") remains difficult. (46:53)

Data Quality & Sanctuary States/Cities

• Despite some inaccurate info provided by migrants, ICE uses robust databases of photos, fingerprints, and records to track removal targets. (51:49)
• Sanctuary policies—like California's SB 54—undermine ICE by denying access to jails and prisons, forcing risky community arrests. (53:22)
• "In California, New York and Chicago and Minneapolis, they actually have to go into the communities to find those people ... They didn't provide any state or local backup for when those officers went into the community ... So ... you needed 10 other officers to protect the two officers that were taking that person into custody." (54:45)

Media Mischaracterization and Violent Criminal Statistics

• CBS recently claimed less than 14% of new ICE arrestees are violent criminals.
  • Arthur rebuts: No set definition of "violent criminal," many arrested lawfully under broader mandates (shoplifting, theft, etc.), and the stat ignores sanctuary state restrictions and the expanded categories under new law. (57:39)
  • "If ICE had the ability to go into every California jail ... they’d be too busy arresting and processing ... to do anything else." (58:34)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Josh Philip (Iran–China–Latin America Axis):

  "Basically all of these governments are corrupt ... They're all narco-states. ... You're not going to get rid of global corruption. They're all corrupt. ... But you can make them play ball with you, because you know how the game works." (30:42)

• Mike Baker (National Security & Immigration):

  "If you don’t know who’s coming across your border, that's a national security problem." (23:23)

• Art Arthur (Sanctuary Policy Impact):

  "The only reason that ICE had to do what they did before Tom Homan got there was because they weren't getting state and local cooperation. Now that the borders are as they are, they are, and that’s why they’re able to draw down that operation." (55:55)

Key Insights & Takeaways

U.S.–Iran Pressure Campaign / Geopolitics:

• The U.S.'s actions against Iran are best seen not in isolation, but as a strategic move within the broader China–Russia–Iran power matrix.
• Latin America is a crucial battleground; China and Iran’s influence there involves weaponized corruption, narco-terrorism, and leveraging energy supplies.
• Trump administration’s policy is less about regime change alone and more about breaking up hostile alliances threatening U.S. unipolarity.

Operation Metro Surge & Immigration Enforcement:

• The end of Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota reflects both operational success and the complex politics around immigration enforcement.
• Effective enforcement depends on cooperation with local authorities and clear, targeted policy communication.
• New U.S. law (Lake and Riley Act) has substantially expanded ICE’s obligations; much of the enforcement debate is shaped by varying definitions and local sanctuary policies.
• Media framing often excludes critical context about both legal mandates and the practical difficulties ICE faces.

Major Segment Timestamps

• 00:12 – Situation Report opening and theme: Iran–China, Immigration sweep
• 03:19 – Philip: China–Russia–Iran core alliance
• 04:17 – Four-wars doctrine; U.S. strategy against CCP
• 07:57 – Guyana-Venezuela crisis analysis, Iran/China/Russia links
• 11:17 – Latin American communist organizations; CCP influence
• 12:26 – Weaponized corruption and drug trade analysis
• 20:57 – Iranian terror networks and smuggling
• 27:35 – Maoist “surround the cities” approach applied to U.S.
• 31:15 – Trump’s terms for Venezuela: expel Chinese, Russian, Iranian influence
• 33:01 – Immigration segment: Operation Metro Surge summary
• 36:51 – Arthur: Success and controversy in conclusion of surge
• 41:27 – Baker: Importance of clear enforcement messaging
• 44:41 – Lake and Riley Act’s expanded mandates
• 51:49 – ICE databases, sanctuary policies, logistical challenges
• 57:39 – Violent criminal arrest stats disputed, policy context

Final Thoughts

The episode highlights the interconnected, high-stakes nature of contemporary geopolitics, particularly the often-overlooked links between U.S. policy toward Iran, China’s global strategy, and the long-term security of the Western Hemisphere. On the domestic front, the winding down of a major ICE operation reveals both the operational limits and political sensitivities of immigration enforcement in modern America.

Those interested in U.S. security strategy, Latin American geopolitics, and domestic enforcement policy will find this episode offers rare clarity and critical context through frank, first-hand expert discussion.