
Loading summary
A
Welcome to the PDB Situation report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the stage appears set for a potential showdown with Iran. Oh. As the US Assembles its largest concentration of military power in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, or as we called it back then, an incursion. We'll speak with former Naval Intelligence Commander Paul Chabot about what comes next. Later in the show, Washington ramps up pressure on Havana even as reports surface of discreet outreach to figures tied to the Castro family. Former CIA analyst, friend of the show, and author of Manufacturing Delusion. A new book is Buck Sexton. He stops by to weigh in. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight. President Trump has signaled that a decision on whether to strike Iran could come within the next 10 days if Tehran doesn't agree to a meaningful nuclear deal, warning that, quote, bad things will happen if it doesn't. Meanwhile, the United States has moved the largest concentration of air power into the Middle east since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Everything from F35s and F F22s to command and control aircraft and carriers now in position even as no final decision, reportedly anyway, has been made. This buildup gives Washington options, of course, ranging from limited strikes on nuclear and ballistic missile sites to a sustained campaign raising the specter of a broader conflict should diplomacy fail to break down. What all this means and where this crisis might be headed, we turn out to retired Naval Intelligence Commander Paul Chabot. Paul, thanks very much for joining us here on THE Situation report. It looks like you're joining us from a hotel room somewhere. Where do you think this is heading? And by that I mean this building situation in the Middle east with Iran.
B
Yeah. You know, from a naval perspective, obviously, they have the largest footprint in there. We've got one carrier strike group there now, another one heading in the way. I think when you look at it from the perspective of Iran, they are looking for a way out. They've been negotiating, although, in Geneva, and they're not coming to an agreement just yet. And the wild card here is Trump. Iran's already been hit by the US They've seen what we can do in Venezuela. And I think Trump and the White House have signaled quite strongly to Iran that you better make a deal. Otherwise our naval forces are going to continue to pile up and can cause significant damage to the infrastructure and wipe out a significant part of their threat, not just to the Middle east, but
A
to the free world. What's, what's Your assessment, You say that, you know, that Iran might be looking for an offer, if they might be looking for a deal, but what's your assessment of, of the way they've been handling the discussion so far? And by that I mean they've, they've acted as if they're driving the train. They're saying, we're not talking about our ballistic missile program. We're not going to talk about our terrorist proxy network or our regional activities. We're only going to talk about one element of the nuclear program. So it's hard to imagine that, that they think, A, that they are driving the train and B, that somehow they are negotiating in good faith of any sort.
B
Yeah, they have no history of negotiating in good faith. The world will be much better if the Iran regime were not here. And that's really honestly the absolute truth. You know, what we're looking for has always been sort of the same. We want them to stop enriching uranium. We want to cut their stockpiles down when a, limit their advanced capabilities with ballistic missiles. And Iran doesn't want that because then they lose all their Trump cars to have any threat to Israel or the Middle East. And Trump wants a deal. We're halfway into his term. He's pushing hard and he's shown that military force has been very effective under his administration so far, both in Iran and in Venezuela. But I will say that, you know, when you listen to the Iran diplomats, they are speaking a little bit more favorably today. They are saying, you know, we're, we're, we're hearing out the Trump administration, they're not coming to an agreement. But at the same time, what's happening right now, we've got a second carrier strike group heading to the Middle East. The big concern, though, around the world is the Strait of Hormuz. As you know, old school theology on war fighting still comes down to these straits, these areas, the choke points, these economic areas, which Iran is very familiar with. If they simply throw an old school, you know, mine into the Strait of Hormuz, just one or two, that's going to send shockwaves of fear which could immediately cease folks traveling through that area. And that's something that the US Is aware of. And it's also something that Iran knows is a red line, I think, with this administration.
A
Yeah, again, it's somewhat, what's the word I'm looking for? Galling, perhaps, that the mullahs, the Iranian regime kind of views this as extortion. Look, you know, you know, screw with us and we're going to put a mine out in the Strait of Cormuz. I agree with you 100%. Look, there will be no long term peace and stability in that region as long as the, the current regime stays in place. So again the obvious hope for is that there will be internal opposition and uprising and that will, that will settle it. But I think you need this external pressure in order to, to perhaps push that along. When, when you look at the, the strait, 1/5 of, you know, the world's oil that's traded goes through that, that, that choke point. What can you tell us about the current three country naval drills that are taking place in the Strait? I believe Russia, China and Iran are conducting. It's not unprecedented, they've done it before, but they currently now chose this time to conduct these joint naval drills. It is.
B
And that from an intelligence perspective, Russia knows exactly what they're doing, their capabilities, they're right now they're advertising that they're working there in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz and these straits across the world have always been a flashpoint for conflict. We train in it. I used to be the N2, which is the director for intel for what was then the Navy Anti Mine Submarine Warfare Command. And what we learned through there was that, you know, not just the string of Hormuz, but North Korea, these countries, they don't have to have the best weaponry, but if you use some old school mining, you can shut down areas and greatly impact the global economy. And so there are significant threats from that. And we know that Iran not only currently is practicing with folks that we don't get along with, mainly Russia. And we're looking at Ukraine as another segment here. But what we're seeing happen in Iran with the people standing up is pretty incredible. And that's something we want to see continue. What's different this time around is you're not going to see American boots on the ground. That's not what we're looking to do. That's not what the American people are looking for. But Iran wants an off ramp and right now we're in a very strong position of power. With the United States having come off very successful hits already in Iran with what we've done in Venezuela, it shows that the US is strong. And oh by the way, the military right now, you and I have got friends in there. Our military I don't think has been this motivated in quite some time. When they see strength in our nation, unlike Obama where we were unloading planes of money to try to somehow negotiate that's not what we're looking for. We're looking for a strategy that is going to be long term in place for the safety and security of the region, but also for our people.
A
Yeah, Again, it's hard to see how you get a negotiated deal here if the Iranian regime doesn't back off this very narrow approach, because between the US And Israel, they've made it fairly clear that part of this has to involve their ballistic missile program, which in reality, Israel considers to be the primary concern of all the issues on the, on the, on the table related to Iran. And, and so without including that, without being able to come into some agreement on, on the way that they deal with their proxy networks and the continued funding and resourcing and training of those, it is hard to imagine that we get a diplomatic result off of this. Again, I, there's not a question there, Paul. I'm just, I'm just, you know, throwing that out there.
B
Look, I think I ran once in off ramp. I think that this, we are in a stronger position now than we have been because we show how successful we can be. Our B2s, one in there unharmed. They know we can annihilate their leadership. We can much more target. And when you got two carrier strike groups, you know, sitting off your coast, that's a massive armada. Not just from a carrier perspective, but from the other ships that we have there, the Tomahawk missiles, the nuclear substance and the longevity. Plus We've got our 5th Fleet headquarters there in Bahrain, 125 miles to the coast of Iran. We have a strong presence. Iran continues to hurt economically. They know what we will provide to them, but they also know that there's an absolute line in the sand of what we want. And this is the time to do it. While Trump's in power, Iran, yes, has a nuclear capability. It's significantly diminished. But if we were to wait this out in another five or 10 years and Iran is somehow able to even strengthen their ability to be able to hit our targets, our own bases, which, you know, they may today. But if we don't take action and shut this down, then we're going to look at a situation with where you're facing off against Russia, where you don't want to go to war with a nuclear nation, where you begin to lob at each other. We can cut off Iran. We got to do it hard now. And Trump's the right president with the right historians, a reset to show Iran that time is now. Take the deal or face the consequences.
A
Yeah, I just, I just worry that, you know, in, in taking a deal or in, in the, the eagerness to get a deal that we end up with a bad deal and all we end up doing is putting lipstick on a pig and kicking the can, you know, a short ways down the road. Just for the benefit of saying we have a deal, Paul, if you could stay right there, we have to take a quick break. Right. Don't go anywhere. And we'll be right back with more from Paul Chabot here on the situation Report. Stick around, please. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, it's officially 2026, but. But you knew that already. What's the old saying? New year, new you. Right, but what if it's a new year but you don't feeling like a new you. You know what I'm talking about. You're not sleeping well. Maybe recovery after work or a workout is harder or maybe stress is just out of hand. Now perhaps you try to stay clear headed with something like caffeine or even stuff like nicotine pouches, but those mess with sleep and they raise cortisol levels. That's why I want to tell you about ultra pouches. Look, they're different and here's why. Completely nicotine and caffeine free. They're packed with natural nootropics to give you steady, clean focus, smooth energy and enhanced mental clarity. There's no buzz, there's no crash and none of those side effects that can spike your heart rate. You just get better sleep and workouts and a calmer mind. Look, athletes, entrepreneurs, engineers, they trust Altra to keep them sharp. Altra is the ultimate guilt free pouch, delivering instant focus and mental clarity without nicotine or caffeine. New customers can use code PDB to get 15% off@takeultra.com that's takeultra.com for 15% off with code PDB. After you purchase, they'll ask where you heard about them. Do me a favor, tell them the PDB sent you.
C
Bettering your business takes working with the best. With the James Hardy alliance, you gain access to leads, training, networking and support from the number one brand of siding in North America. Achieve new levels of success by joining the James Hardy alliance today.
A
Hey, PDB listeners, Mike Baker here with a quick recommendation for your podcast playlist. Look, if you like deep, insightful conversations with world class thinkers. And who doesn't? Come on, just check out the Jordan Harbinger show. It's available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen. Jordan sits down with people who've been in the room at the highest levels, from national security leaders to thinkers reshaping how we understand the world. You'll hear ideas and stories that go way beyond the usual sound bites. Two episodes. I'd recommend an interview with our friend Ryan Macbeth on Venezuela's collapse. That's a clear look at how a once wealthy oil state unraveled and what that means, of course, for regional stability. And also his conversation with Douglas Murray where they explore the pressures facing Western democracies and what those trends mean for long term stability. Download the Jordan Harbinger Show. That's H A R B I N G E R just like it sounds on Apple podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your shows or just go to jordanharbinger.com start to dive right in. It's one of those podcasts that makes you smarter. So give it a go. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is retired Naval Intelligence Commander Paul Chabot. Paul, thank you very much for sticking around. We've been talking Iran. What, what's your assessment of what the other regional players are thinking right now? Right. We've had, we've got a massive military buildup in the region. We've got this, this, these naval drills again going on with involving Russia, China and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Do you have any feel for what the Saudis, Jordanians and others are thinking at this point?
B
I think most of them are looking for a U.S. leadership. But I do think when you talk about the significant practice from a terror funding Houthis and others, look, part of this is the grand strategy that we know this place is always going to go to hell almost any day of the week. We've shown that historically the United States has had a strong presence there back and forth that what we want is overall security and safety for our folks. We don't want to see the world economy tank, but we also want to stand by Israel and our allies there. We have a strong presence. The fifth Fleet is there and it's not going to go anywhere. And it's been there for a very long time. We are continuing to hit our proxies, but it's nothing new. When I was in Iraq in 0809 during the surge, you saw our special operation forces targeting many of these same proxies, terror networks around the globe consistently. It's just now, I think for the first time when you see a president in here, what we've done in Venezuela, it sends fear into these networks when you see that we can fly bombers from The United States refueling all the way across the globe to hit targets with no diminished efforts on our part. Now is the time when our adversaries, the proxies attached to them, can see the danger in the United States, which gives us the strongest ability for negotiations. And our negotiations should not give up any land, any territory. We should go for the win in everything that we do right now.
A
What, from your experience, if this does move into a direct conflict, what do you imagine the US Target packages look
B
like when we're looking at Iran and you see the people standing up? You've got to assume that Marco Rubio is having a lot of discussions right now with the Pentagon on this, because it's not just going further to try to wipe out more of their nuclear stockpiles, which, oh, by the way, satellite imagery today shows that Iran is covering a lot of those facilities with sand, but we have no idea what's going on in the tunnels, despite our bunker busters hitting those. We don't have a full battle damage assessment on it, but we know there's still sustainability. So from a Marco Rubio Secretary of State perspective, you know, regime change is always difficult to think of, but in the circumstance of Iran, if it happens internally, right now with the people standing up, there's an opportunity for different types of strikes. I don't know what those would look like, but we wouldn't want to destroy the country, wouldn't want to go after their electricity, their infrastructure, their bridges, maybe just enough to be able to wipe out a portion of their leadership, to allow others to overtake that country, which is a possibility, but then being cautious of the fact that we don't want these weapons. You've got Russia, you've got China, you got others paying strong attention to what's happening in the Middle East.
A
It's. It's interesting because I think the, the timing on the. I mentioned it before, but the timing on these naval drills involving Iran, Russia, China, it seems as if essentially Iran in particular is trying to send a message, right? I don't know that China and Russia are sending a message, but Iran sending a message saying, look, we're not on our own here. Look at us. We're side by side with Russia and China. But then if you look at what happened during the 12 Day War, China and Russia were extremely quiet, right? I think maybe they protested slightly verbally, but that was the extent of it. So, you know, how do you assess that? Does it. Does that come into play if you're, if you're sitting there, say you're in your old job and you're looking at this and you're trying to do a risk assessment on this, to what degree do you factor in possible involvement from Russia and, or China?
B
None. None. And, and here's the reason why, especially not, not from Russia. Russia's capability is so diminished. China's has been growing and quite significant. The, the major concern though with China is that they have been growing their strength into a lot of third world countries around the globe. They've been building up ports, infrastructure, largely from an economic perspective, but also causes us a national security perspective. From China's look at it, they see this as a, as a world domination on behalf of their ideology. China looks at us as an empire that has been here for just a blip on the radar where China's been around forever. They've seen empires come and go. Remember, they've been building across Africa, across the Middle East. They've been building their ability to have inroads economically, but also militarily. Just give you an example. You look at Djibouti, Horn of Africa. You know, we, one of our special operation forces basis has been there for quite some time. China comes in, they build a brand new facility. It looks bigger, better than ours. They're building their carriers nowhere near what our capabilities are. But Russia is different in that they don't have the same capabilities, older equipment. But China is what I worry about. China has a global perspective on all of this and they're watching what we do, which is why we've got to show strength. And quite honestly, we need to control the battlefield. We need to continue to control the airspace and show no weakness. China's not going to go away, Russia's not going to go away, but let's keep them in their corners the best that we can.
A
Yeah, I think it's a really interesting point. You can also look at Russia and their lack of involvement in Syria, right. When Assad fell, who was a very ally and kind of like their key toehold in the region from Russia's perspective. And, and yet there was no, no real response. So I take your point in terms of how stretched the Russian military is as a result of Putin's invasion that's been going on for almost five years. China, you know, ruthlessly does whatever is in best in, in China's best interest. Right. And I don't know that they would see coming to the direct aid of the Mullis as being in their, their best interests at this stage of the game. So. But I wanted to raise that because, you know, there's, you know, we're not in a bubble. Right. So you can never. You always have to assess how these things ripple out. Let's. Let's veer a little bit. If we could. Not a little bit. We're going all the way to Ukraine. Give me your assessment of, of where we stand with the Ukraine conflict at the present time.
B
Sure. So, you know, as we speak, there's negotiations going on between Ukraine and Russia. Russia is asking for the same thing. They want to have control of territory. Crimea in 14. They want that recognized. They do not want Ukraine part of NATO. And Ukraine is basically telling Russia in so many words, go to hell. We're not going to give you anything. We don't want you to recognize any of our territory. Because if we do, we see this as just the beginning of you taking more. And at the same time, think about this. Four or five years ago, when we were first aware that Russia was invading, pushing into Ukraine, nobody then would have thought that Russia is where they are now. Almost a stalemate. And today, or yet last 24 hours, Ukraine has had an incredible offensive. And this thing goes back and forth. When you step back and look at this, when I first joined the Navy, our primary adversary was not talking about terrorism. This was pre 9, 11, it was all about Russia. And during the Cold War, we've got to be honest, they had some superior equipment. Not everything, but a lot of theirs was. And so to us, to look at now, where Russia is to be unable to conquer and defeat Ukraine is embarrassing. It's embarrassing. At the same time, Trump is demanding a deal. He wants a deal. He said it directly out front. And Ukraine is saying, look, we want a deal, too, but our deal is not to give up our territory. So there's a stalemate. You've got this new Board of Peace, which, by the way, to all my 80s friends, I keep thinking of the singer Prince every single time I hear it. I can't help it. But what is the end state here? And there is a stalemate. So we don't know which way this is going to go, but we do know what's important is both sides are still communicating in Geneva as we speak.
A
Yeah, There does seem to be a level of negotiation. You could argue it's. It's not dissimilar from what's going on with Iran. Right. There is. There's channels of communication, you know, whether they're in any way effective or not, but at least they're open. Right. And that's. That is important. I think there's some confusion sometimes over the Trump administration's handling of the Ukraine, Russia conflict, Putin's invasion, because it does seem to veer from one side to the other. In one moment, you know, the Trump White House is upset with Zelensky and Ukraine and says it's, it's their problem. They've got to, you know, come to the table and find a solution. And then on the other hand, you know, next thing you know, they're, they're, you know, losing patience, and they're getting frustrated with Putin as they should, because he's responsible for this whole hot mess. But I think that that back and forth, you know, I'm not sure whether it's strategy or whether it's just in the moment, the frustration over not being able to find a deal.
B
Yeah. And here's the danger for this going on for so long for us as Americans as we get tired of wars. And what I'm seeing politically here in the States is more candidates on my side of the aisle saying we don't need to be involved in these foreign wars. And look, we're not boots on the ground, but we need to support our allies. And historically, we know that, that when we take our foot off the gas and ignore everything outside of our borders, it's going to end up coming back to us anyway. And so my fear right now is that because some of these have dragged on, that the American people have gotten tired. But what's interesting is we're not losing bodies, we're losing, you could say, money. But it's against Russia. And what greater benefit would there be than to see Russia continuing to grind out the losing military, losing manpower from an adversary that we know wanted to conquer the world? And so I think from a strength perspective, just as patriots, as Americans, isolationism has never worked. My friends in the Republican Party, we've got to knock this off. We've got to support our allies from, from Israel to Ukraine. And we don't have to do with boots on the ground. But we also don't do it by just putting our hands up and saying, you know, we just got to come home and spend our money here because that problem will come here.
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I, I agree with you. I, look, I get why isolationists or I get why libertarians, you know, think the way they do. I just, I understand their, their, I suppose their point of view. I don't agree with it, but I understand that, you know, that's, that's the way they view things. I just don't happen to think it Works in the actual real world.
C
Right.
A
It sort of works in the world that you would like to or hope to be living in. But I think when it, when it comes to the Ukraine conflict, I'm glad you mentioned the counteroffensive, because, you know, the Ukrainian military has made some remarkable strides just in very short order during the course of the past week in terms of reclaiming territory. And that is a benefit if they're sitting at the table. Right. The only way I would argue that Putin's going to back off of his maximalist demands is, is if he feels enough pain. And I don't think he's felt that. He's. He's been feeling as if he's. If he just grinds on, he will eventually get what he wants, which, of course, is the entire country. He didn't start this effort by saying, I just want the eastern portion of the country, but he wanted the whole country.
B
Right?
A
So listen, Paul, you know, I, I'm just climbing down off my soapbox now.
B
If I could say real, real, real quick, it's fascinating watching what Ukraine has done militarily. I mean, they have basically invented true drone warfare with an inexpensive ability to strike targets over and over and over and over again. I mean, drones have been around. We've used them here and there, you know, In Iraq, there 20 years ago, but now they're able to use inexpensive drones, many of them, and have a massive impact on the battlefield. What we're seeing there, I think, is the new wave of how we're going to learn to fight many of these wars going forward. So from an intel perspective, it's fascinating just to sit back and watch how little Ukraine is standing up against Russia. Not using, you know, huge missiles or other things, but just getting down in the dirt and building these basic drones and, and getting their people trained up and, and to fight Russia is just remarkable. So hats off to the ingenuity of the Ukrainians in what they're doing right now facing Russia. Remarkable, actually.
A
I'm glad you. I'm glad you mentioned that, because that will be the subject of our next conversation. Paul, if you're willing to come on back, I would like to explore the impact that this, this, you know, this conflict in Ukraine, it will have on the future of battle. Coming up next, the US Ramps up pressure on Havana. Right. Even as reports surface of discreet talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and figures tied to the Castro family. Get that. Former CIA analyst and radio host Buck Sexton. You know him, He's a friend of the show joins us next to give us his perspective on the shakeup in Latin America. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message for dog lovers. Now, if you're like me and my family, dogs are an important part of family life. Look, we've got two of them. Our golden retriever, Hendrix, he's a, he's a good boy. He's now in his 14th year, getting a little gray around the muzzle. And Monty are very cute, but somewhat dim witted King Charles spaniel. Now, as you probably know, here's the thing. When it comes to your dog food, right, there always seems to be a compromise. It's either fresh and healthy or it's easy to store and serve. That's why we love Sundaes for Dogs, right? With the Sundaes for Dogs brand, you get both fresh and healthy dog food that's easy to store and serve, right? There's no compromise. Founded by veterinarian Dr. Tori Waxman, Sundaes is created with air dried real food made in a human food grade kitchen using the same ingredients that you use to cook for your family. Every bite is clean and packed with real meat, fruits and veggies. There's no weird unpronounceable ingredients or fillers. Compared to other brands, Sundaes invests 50 times more in its ingredients. For true premium quality, there's no cost cutting. Just scoop and serve. No freezer, no thawing, no prep, no mess, no fuss, no muss. Make the switch to Sundays. Go right now to Sundays for dogs.com PDB50 and get 50 off your first order. Or you can use code PDB50 at checkout. That's 50% off your first order at sundaysfordogs.com PDB50 Again, Sundays for dogs.com PDB50 or use code PDB50at checkout. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. The administration is tightening the screws on Cuba and the impact is being felt across the island. An aggressive oil blockade is triggering rolling blackouts, leaving Cuban citizens on months long waiting lists for fuel and even contributing to garbage piling up in the streets as basic services grind to a halt. But this is more than just pressure. Reports now suggest that the administration is quietly preparing for a possible political transition. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is said to be engaged in back channel discussions with Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro. Now that's the grandson of former dictator Raul Castro, who of course is the younger brother of the now deceased Fidel Castro. Joining me now to give his thoughts on what's happening is Buck Sexton. You Know him? Buck is a former CIA analyst, nationally syndicated radio host, and the author of the newly released book Manufacturing how the Left Uses Brainwashing, Indoctrination and Propaganda against you. Buck, listen man, thank you for coming on back to the PDB Situation Report. Here we go. What do you think? There have been all sorts of reports, but the most interesting have come out recently talking about Secretary of State Marco Rubio possibly opening a back channel communication with the now aged and former President Raul Castro's grandson. So give me your thoughts on, on all things Cuba, how it may or may not compare to what happened in Venezuela or what's happening in Venezuela if. Wherever you want to take this.
C
No, absolutely. Look, Mike, you and I are guys who saw us up close and personal on the government side, learn a lot of lessons from the gwat, which I think we're allowed to call it again after the Obama administration referred to it as like overseas contingency operations against strategically important ideological foes or something. It was some crazy long thing that. No, the g. What the global war on terror. One of the biggest lessons of that, number one, obviously don't get into wars too deep that you can't get out of. That's an important one. But also as part of that, who takes over, who's going to be in charge? If someone's so bad that you want them gone, which is already we should be a very high bar, right? If someone's so bad, you really, as national policy want them out or in the case of Venezuela can lock them up in a cell, you know, alongside like, you know, murderers and drug traffickers and rapists and everything you need to know who's going to be in charge next. By the way, I think this is one of the biggest, I don't want to divert us to Iran. I think this is one of the biggest challenges in Iran, which is that they've been, you know, we saw this in Syria too, that they've been a repressive theocratic state for so long and so good at undermining any opposition. Whereas, you know, in Venezuela there were some more recent prior history of, you know, something approximating a functioning and democratic government. You know, pre Chavez in Cuba I worry, you know, so like in the Venezuela example, you get rid of the worst parts of the, you get rid of the head of the snake. And I think in Venezuela we have a pretty good shot of using sticks and carrots to direct them. Not land in the 82nd Airborne in Caracas, but using sticks and carrots to direct them in a better place. For us, right? Cuba. You know, I'm in South Florida. I live in Miami. I mean, I have a ton of Cuban friends. The Cubans gave me this haircut actually, just a few days ago. Cuban American. So, you know, take that as you will.
A
It's a good haircut.
C
Oh, thank you. Yeah, I hope so. It's definitely a little more. It's okoroll down here. You know, it's the way they kind of, like, short on the side, but.
A
But, you know, not for nothing. Not for nothing. And I don't want to interrupt you, but I'm about to. You should have gone with, like, we've got three teenage boys at home, right? And, well, one of them just started his first year at Ole Miss, but the other two. And they get that llama haircut. Have you seen that? The team.
C
Oh, yeah.
A
Like a year and a half.
C
Not quite able to pull that one off. But I maybe. Maybe could if I.
A
Don't sell yourself. Join.
B
Thank you.
C
I appreciate that. So, yeah, I mean, the deal here is you got. You have a lot of people in the Cuban American community who very much remember, you know, one of my mentors down here, Mike, was actually at the Bay of Pigs, was captured. And so there's still people with active memory of, first of all, Cuba before the regime, but also they very much recognize how evil and despotic the caster regime has been. And I think that gets lost in our own media with, like, that Michael Moore propaganda film about, like, how great the health care is. And, you know, people believe nonsense about Cuba.
B
They don't know anything.
C
I don't know how good the opposition is there, or rather how prepared, I should say, not how good, how prepared the opposition is there to take over if there was some kind of collapse. Internally forced coup, not an externally forced coup. So, Rube, clearly we're using the leverage of. Okay, now your oil subsidy is gone because we knocked out Venezuela. We told Venezuela, guess what? You're not propping them up anymore with the free oil. And all those Cuban bodyguards you sent to Maduro, you're not getting them back either.
A
Sorry.
C
Oh, maybe you are, but they're not.
A
That's passed.
C
Yeah, that's gone.
A
So I.
B
It.
A
It's interesting. I think the. You know, the. The state of the Cuban economy at this point. Right. I mean, we've described it here on the PDB as basically running on fumes. Right. And aside from just the fact that they lost their lifeline in Venezuela, you know, there's also been pressure on. On Mexico, for example. In terms of, and trying to fill the gap there. And the reports are very dire. But I take your point. There's not an established. Because they have been so good at repression and suppression over the decades, there's not an established path for an opposition at this point. But I thought it was interesting that if the reports are accurate, that Rubio or the administration decided that the way to go about this may be to take a page from the Venezuela situation, start some communication off the radar with, again with, with Raul Castro's grandson. Right. And I don't know how that would play in the, as an example, the Cuban American community in Miami, if what would happen is that, you know, you still got a remnant of the Castro regime at the end of the day when there is some type of transition.
C
Yeah, I, I think that, you know, this is, this is what holds us back in a lot of ways from. Even though this moment clearly is opportune from the perspective of toppling, if you wanted to knock these guys off the perch, there hasn't been a better time to do it in a very long time than what we see right now. So there's certainly reason to, to seize that moment. But the reason they're having these communications in back channel is, look, it's a repressive police state and, you know, our collection on it, such as it is, is, is probably pretty good, but you really only have a handful of people who are going to be making very important decisions at the top about what is going to go down there if things go down right. I mean, if things get crazy, I don't know what it would be necessarily.
A
Right.
C
But you're going to have to have a group of people that have an access to enough power to effectuate some kind of a, a transfer of power. And how do you, you know, you don't know this until you do it. I mean, this is just the reality, I think, of whether it's internal collapse, externally forced coup, whatever it may be. You know, you don't really know who is going to be running through the, running through the Royal palace, calling the shots until they're doing it right. And that's the, the part of this that I bet Rubio is trying to spec out right now, because, you know, Cuba, it should be so.
A
It should be such a great place
C
and it should be so much easier for the people there to enjoy their lives and enjoy freedom that it is. But on the other hand, we obviously have a history of not being able to make things better for them there and a long history of kind of cutting them off with the, you know, with trade and everything else. So I think, right. I'm much more bullish on Venezuela starting to go the right way than I am any imminent action on Cuba because I still think there are just too many unknowns. But I could be wrong on that one.
A
It is fascinating because look, you can make the same argument. It would be better for the, for the Cuban people, right, to have a freer, more liberal society, right. Get out from under this, this miserable regime. Same thing. You can argue for the people of Venezuela, same for the people of Iran. But in all cases, right, what tends to happen is, you know, people put the brakes on because rightly so, they're worried about what backfills, what comes in next. And, and so I think, and I think your point is absolutely correct, you can't compare Venezuela to Cuba right now. Right? It's not, it's, it's not the same. And there, there are significant differences. So I agree with you. I think, I think Venezuela has a much greater chance for a long term improvement for the people of Venezuela. I hope the same thing happens with Cuba, but I think there are complications there.
C
We let the oil flow, they do well, we turn the oil off their toes so we have a lot of leverage. That's very clear.
A
Yeah, no, no, I think, yeah, exactly what I'm going to do right now is I'm going to make you stay right where you are. We got to take a quick break. When we come back, we're going to talk about that book. We're going to talk about that book.
B
The CIA took you five months to
C
clear it m. Five months to clear this book. Crazy.
A
We'll be back with more from Buck Sexton. We're going to be talking about his excellent new book. So everybody stick around for more from the PDB situation report. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, it's officially 2026, but. But you knew that already. What's the old saying? New year, new you. Right, but what if it's a new year but you're not feeling like a new you? You know what I'm talking about. You're not sleeping well. Maybe recovery after work or a workout is harder or maybe stress is just out of hand. Now perhaps you try to stay clear headed with something like caffeine or even stuff like nicotine pouches, but those mess with sleep and they raise cortisol levels. That's why I want to tell you about ultra pouches. Look, they're different and here's why. Completely nicotine and caffeine free. They're packed with natural nootropics to give you steady, clean focus, smooth energy and enhanced mental clarity. There's no buzz, there's no crash, and none of those side effects that can spike your heart rate. You just get better sleep and workouts and a calmer mind. Look, athletes, entrepreneurs, engineers, they trust Altra to keep them sharp. Altra is the ultimate guilt free pouch, delivering instant focus and mental clarity without nicotine or caffeine. New customers can use code PDB to get 15% off@takeultra.com that's takeultra.com for 15% off with code PDB. After you purchase, they'll ask where you heard about them. Do me a favor, tell them the PDB sent you. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again is Buck Sexton, nationally syndicated radio host, man about town, author of the brand new book Manufacturing Delusion, how the Left Uses Brainwashing, Indoctrination and Propaganda against you. Buck, let's talk about that book. And I'll be honest with you, I really can't tell where you're coming from with that title.
C
Yeah, look, there's, I'll say this about it. First of all, my idea was behind the book. After, when Covid stuff finally started to recede the madness, I was like, okay, guys, we just had a little trial run of totalitarian thought control in this country and we failed. And we need to understand how this stuff happens. And so I started to go back into history and look at the earliest, really mass mind control efforts in the Soviet Union and then in Maoist, which really spread in a sense. And then in Maoist China, you know, they called it thought reform. Brainwashing is an American term. It's a neologism off of the Mandarin for wash brain. We change it to brainwash. Edward Hunter, who people say maybe had some connections to government. Not really clear, I think depends who you ask. It looks, you look it up on Wikipedia one way or the other. But back in the 50s, he came up with this term. He was a journalist. He wrote about actually in the Miami, I think was the Miami Herald. And it referred to people who had gone through this indoctrination, intense indoctrination program in Maoist, early Maoist China, where even when they got out, and these were Westerners, Mike, they got out, they had essentially an extreme form of like Stockholm syndrome. It lingered. And they, they would defend, even after horrible treatment, they would defend what they were trying to do. And they would, they would argue that maybe they had done Something to cause this. And then over time, they realized that they had just been through this very regimented form of. Of intense mind control. And so there have been different periods in history where this has happened. And there are tactics that go into this, and there are really variations on a theme. People ask, like, well, you have a chapter on menticide, a chapter on conditioning, Pavlovian conditioning. Actually going into Pavlov, the scientist Pavlov, Everyone knows about the dogs. They think. People think they know things about this stuff that's actually not really true. I mean, Pavlov, it was a. It was a metronome or a buzzer. It wasn't a bell. And he wasn't training dogs per se. He was trying to, as a scientist and a Nobel laureate and the most important scientist in Russia before the age of rockets and the Cold War and everything. He was trying to see where the brain, the body, where that connection occurs in a way that's essentially reflexive. So what kind of stimuli can you take in from the outside that gives a physiological response? Because that's clearly your brain directing an actual, you know, an actual physical. Physical impulse. So that was kind of the heart of his research. But Lenin comes in and he's like, well, this guy's looking at some interesting stuff here. We're going to create a new Soviet man. What if we just sort of had imagery everywhere? What if we just were pushing a cult of personality and pushing effectively what became mass totalitarian mind control? And so you look at the tactics of it, and then I see where it is in our society around us today and how it can lead lots of people to believe things that are very manifestly and very obviously untrue. And that's where it becomes partisan and political. Today, people can agree or disagree with
A
that aspect of it, but the history
C
and the mind control and also, by the way, some of the CIA anecdotes, Mike, I got them to clear. I got the agency to clear. My first ever assignment. This is funny. I was a trainee man, they said he in Nigeria. So I, let's just say, linked up with some locals who were like, hey, there's this group that is like, like sawing people's heads off. We've heard and like, doing bad stuff up in the north. We should go up there and talk to some, like, basically do some collection. By the way, I wasn't even, like, I hadn't even, you know, I was
A
absolutely a road trip.
C
So I was there. But it was actually a fascinating thing because I linked up with some guys who are obviously far more seasoned and they thought I was amusing. And they happened to be kind of right wing, which is you. Was not always the case in our former employer. And they took me around and I got to sort of see the origin story in real time of what became Boko Haram. Like, went to some of the places and some of the. Talk to some of the local security, you know, and this is the stuff I get into some of the basics of this.
A
And the review board. Jim, sorry for interrupting the review board pass out and allowed you to put that. That's fantastic. Because that, that brings this stuff to life.
C
Right.
A
I mean, it's one thing to talk
C
about it, first of all, in other words. Yeah, it was 20 years ago. Right. So. So the good news is, I mean, you know, enough time has passed where. And obviously there's no names or any sort of operational details, but just the basics of, like, here's why I was in this country and here's what I saw going on there. Yeah, they actually didn't. I was. I thought they would have a heavier hand on that. Some of the Iraq and Afghanistan stuff, which is also in the book, obviously, I was in Iraq and Afghanistan. I mean, I know you know that, but for the audience and, and that they weren't, they weren't rough on that stuff. They let me talk about it, but again, I wasn't. I was doing thinking analysis stuff, had some interesting meetings, saw stuff, but wasn't, you know, obviously kicking indoors or doing any crazy stuff or having super Secret Squirrel missions that, you know, still will be classified forever. So. Yeah, I mean, they were actually pretty, pretty easy with me on, on that stuff. Although they took a while, but. Yeah, no, they were reasonable.
A
If you're, if you're stuck in. Let me ask you this. If you're, if you find yourself in an elevator and someone's there and they say, you know, tell me about your book. What do you want them to take away from it? What's the. What's. Is there a key point there or is there something as a takeaway?
C
Yeah, this book, there's some cool stories about CIA stuff which Mike and I are talking about, which is just fun because I never got to talk about it before because I hadn't cleared it. So now I've cleared the stuff. It's in there. So just some stuff about what it's like to be a little preppy analyst in the, in the height of the global war on terror, running around some of these countries doing my thing. Thing in terms of the Book, though that's not what the book is about. That's just thrown in there to be entertaining in some places. What the book is about is what are the things? Things like isolation, things like confusion and degradation, false confession. I mean, I really get into the science of how you break people down. This works in a totalitarian society. It works in a cult, it works in college campus DEI indoctrination. Right? It's just. It's degrees, it's levels of extreme, but it's a similar process to bring people into believing delusions. And I would argue that when a society falls into manufactured mass delusion, that that's the worst thing that can happen because anything is possible. And the 20th century certainly so certainly showed us that a society in the. In the grips of mass delusion can do the worst things in history. So you got to fight against this stuff. And it's really just a quest for constant truth and understanding how people can try to get in there and mess with your mind.
A
I know you, you know a lot of big words. I know you wrote this book. And when I suggest, because it is going to be a bestseller, I suggest everyone get out there and get it. The Buck, listen, thank you as always, man, for being here. Again, the book is Manufacturing Delusion, how the left uses brainwashing, indoctrination and propaganda against you. It's out right now. It's doing extremely well. Get yourself a copy because it is important stuff. All right. Hey, Buck, thanks for joining us, man. I hope you come back next time.
C
Hey, brother, thank you so much. Great to see.
A
Well, that is all the time we have for the PDB situation report, right? If you have any questions or you have a comment so you have humorous anecdotes, right, Just reach out to me at pdb@thefirsttv.com and it really is that simple. Once a month, you know what we do, right?
C
We.
A
We gather around our conference table. It's really quite the table. We have snacks, you know, our snack budget, it's not lavish, but it's pretty good. And we choose some of the best questions and comments, most interesting things out of the mailbag from you, and we put those in an episode that we call Ask Me Anything. The most recent one for February is out now for premium subscribers. So keep those cards and letters coming. That's what I'm saying. To listen to the podcast of the show ad free. Well, it's simple. Become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com that Mike Baker and you know the drill. Until next time. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
This episode centers on mounting global security crises and the U.S. response, including the massive U.S. military buildup in the Middle East (the largest since the Iraq invasion) as tensions escalate with Iran. The podcast includes expert insight on potential regime change in Iran, ripple effects for regional and global actors in the Middle East, the state of negotiations in Ukraine, and evolving U.S. policy toward Cuba, coupled with concerns over political brainwashing within the U.S. via media and propaganda. Notable guests Paul Chabot and Buck Sexton join to offer analysis and commentary.
"Bad things will happen if it doesn't." — Mike Baker quoting President Trump (00:50)
“They have no history of negotiating in good faith. The world will be much better if the Iran regime were not here.” (03:26)
“If they simply throw an old school … mine into the Strait of Hormuz, just one or two, that's going to send shockwaves … which could immediately cease folks traveling through that area.” — Paul Chabot (04:02)
“…we are in a stronger position now than we have been because we show how successful we can be. … If we were to wait this out… in another five or 10 years and Iran is … able to even strengthen their ability… we're going to look at a situation with where you're facing off against Russia… We can cut off Iran. We gotta do it hard now. And Trump’s the right president…” (08:55)
“There will be no long term peace and stability in that region as long as the, the current regime stays in place.” — Mike Baker (05:01)
“…you're not going to see American boots on the ground. That's not what the American people are looking for.” — Paul Chabot (06:52)
“Russia’s capability is so diminished… China's has been growing and quite significant… China has a global perspective on all of this and they're watching what we do, which is why we've got to show strength.” — Paul Chabot (17:51)
“Russia is asking for the same thing. They want to have control of territory, Crimea in '14… Ukraine is basically telling Russia… go to hell. We're not going to give you anything.” — Paul Chabot (20:36)
“Isolationism has never worked. My friends in the Republican Party, we've got to knock this off. We've got to support our allies from Israel to Ukraine.” — Paul Chabot (23:26)
“They have basically invented true drone warfare… drones have been around… but now they're able to use inexpensive drones, many of them, and have a massive impact on the battlefield.” — Paul Chabot (25:55)
“If someone’s so bad that you want them gone... you need to know who’s going to be in charge next.” (30:36)
“I don’t know how good the opposition is there, or rather how prepared… the opposition is there to take over if there was some kind of collapse. Internally forced coup, not an externally forced coup.” — Buck Sexton (33:46)
“I’m much more bullish on Venezuela starting to go the right way than I am any imminent action on Cuba...” — Buck Sexton (37:28)
“When a society falls into manufactured mass delusion, that's the worst thing that can happen because anything is possible. … The 20th century certainly showed us that.” — Buck Sexton (47:01)
“It's a quest for constant truth and understanding how people can try to get in there and mess with your mind.” — Buck Sexton (47:06)
“I know you, you know a lot of big words. I know you wrote this book. And when I suggest, because it is going to be a bestseller, I suggest everyone get out there and get it.” (47:13)
“We want them to stop enriching uranium. We want to cut their stockpiles… limit their advanced capabilities with ballistic missiles. And Iran doesn't want that… Trump wants a deal. We're halfway into his term. He's pushing hard and he's shown that military force has been very effective under his administration…” — Paul Chabot (03:26)
“China is what I worry about. China has a global perspective on all of this and they're watching what we do, which is why we've got to show strength.” — Paul Chabot (17:51)
“The danger for this going on for so long for us… is we get tired of wars… But it's against Russia. And what greater benefit would there be than to see Russia continuing to grind out the losing military, losing manpower…” — Paul Chabot (23:26)
| Segment/Topic | Timestamps | |---------------------------------------- |---------------------| | U.S./Iran Tensions & Military Buildup | 00:12–12:00 | | Naval Drills, Regional Reactions | 12:20–19:30 | | Ukraine Conflict Update | 19:30–26:55 | | Cuba Blockade, Regime Change Discussion | 29:45–38:45 | | Brainwashing, Buck Sexton's Book | 38:45–47:40 |
This episode delivers a comprehensive situational briefing for listeners wanting a clear understanding of today’s major foreign policy flashpoints—particularly U.S.–Iran dynamics, the Ukraine war’s evolution, and regime change in Cuba. Guests Paul Chabot and Buck Sexton provide deep, insider perspectives shaped by intelligence and field experience, tackling not just geopolitics but also the critical battle over narratives, information, and mass persuasion. The discussion holds a pragmatic, sometimes blunt approach and remains rooted in latest developments, with a recurring emphasis on showing strength, learning from history, and sustaining American resolve at home and abroad.