The President's Daily Brief: February 22, 2025

Host: Mike Baker
Guests:

• Todd Bensman: Senior National Security Fellow, Center for Immigration Studies
• Steve Yates: Senior Research Fellow for China and National Security Policy, Heritage Foundation

1. Mexico's Escalating Conflict with Drug Cartels

Mexico is undergoing a significant policy shift in its ongoing battle against powerful drug cartels. Historically adhering to a "hugs not bullets" approach, the Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, has been compelled to adopt a more aggressive stance due to mounting pressure from the United States, particularly from President Trump.

• Deployment of Troops: Mexico has deployed 10,000 troops to cartel-controlled territories along the northern border, shifting focus from merely curbing illegal immigration to directly combating transnational criminal organizations and halting fentanyl production.

  Steve Yates [08:47]: "Claudia Sheinbaum's, you know, the business elite of Mexico. So she had to do something to comply first, stop all the illegal immigration and next, her mission, her agreement is that they are going to kinetically attack the cartels and they're going to stop the fentanyl, they're going to dismantle the cartels."

• Implications of the Shift: This move marks a departure from previous strategies and raises concerns about the potential for escalating violence.

  Steve Yates [10:53]: "Doing it, let's just say their heart is not in it. But you know, Trump's out there saying, well, that's a nice economy you got there. Mexico would be a shame if anything bad happened to it."

2. US Designation of Cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations

The United States is considering designating Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), a move that would unlock a range of punitive measures against these groups.

• Enhanced Authority: This designation would allow the US Treasury Department to freeze assets, block access to global financial systems, and charge individuals and entities with material support for terrorism.

  Steve Yates [18:52]: "This really allows the United States to go in and the Treasury Department and really muck things up for them and isolate their ability, isolate them from the groups and other people and institutions that they use to do business around the world."

• Potential Consequences: The move aims to disrupt the cartels' financial operations and limit their capacity to sustain their illicit activities.

  Steve Yates [20:17]: "They have signed the arrows in the quiver for that at least."

3. US-Russia Negotiations in Riyadh to End the Ukraine War

Delegations from the US and Russia met in Riyadh to discuss potential pathways to end the protracted conflict in Ukraine. Notably, Ukraine was excluded from these talks, raising questions about the legitimacy and future of any agreements reached.

• Exclusion of Ukraine: The absence of Ukrainian representatives has sparked concerns about the inclusivity and fairness of the negotiations.

  Todd Bensman [29:20]: "Ukraine was missing, obviously, Ukraine wasn't present, but Keith Kellogg has been in Ukraine a lot and he has a lot of experience having been in Ukraine before."

• Trump's Stance on Zelensky: President Trump openly criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, labeling him a "dictator without elections" and attributing much of the blame for the war to Zelensky.

  Todd Bensman [29:20]: "President Trump had some sharp words for the Ukrainian leader, labeling Zelensky as a, quote, dictator without elections, end quote."

• Outcome and Future Prospects: The discussions in Riyadh are seen as an initial attempt to set the groundwork for future negotiations, but without Ukraine's involvement, the path to a durable peace remains uncertain.

  Steve Yates [37:31]: "So this might just be a different way of inchworming toward where this sit down might ultimately get."

4. China's Strategic Position Amid US Distractions

While the US grapples with internal and external challenges, China continues to advance its strategic interests, potentially capitalizing on US distractions to strengthen its global standing.

• Economic Challenges: China's domestic economy faces significant hurdles, including a looming property bubble and a declining birth rate, which could impede its long-term growth and stability.

  Mike Baker [44:58]: "They have a property bubble that's awful. You can see videos of huge multiplexes of high rises getting demolitioned."

• Supply Chain Realignment: The US is actively seeking to reduce its dependency on China by investing in joint manufacturing ventures with allies like Japan and India, aiming to bolster its defense and technological sectors.

  Mike Baker [48:10]: "There was a lot under the umbrella of this AI infrastructure initiative that's up to a trillion dollars... ways to fill some of these gaps on a nearer timeline and they're open to that."

• Technological and Military Preparedness: Efforts to enhance US manufacturing capabilities domestically and with allied nations are seen as crucial steps to counterbalance China's growing influence.

  Mike Baker [50:27]: "Our main advantage is that our technology is better and our fighting force is proven, trained, combat experienced and ready."

5. Taiwan's Ongoing Challenges and US Policies

Taiwan remains a critical flashpoint in US-China relations, with ongoing tensions exacerbated by tariffs and strategic maneuvers from both sides.

• Tariff Implications: The US administration is considering imposing tariffs on the middle segments of Taiwan’s technological supply chain, which could disrupt the broader industry and economic relations.

  Mike Baker [54:48]: "They have this tariff challenge coming on the other end."

• US Policies Towards Taiwan: There is a shift towards fostering a deeper economic and strategic partnership with Taiwan, emphasizing co-manufacturing and reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains.

  Mike Baker [55:27]: "They're going to be looking to accentuate to sort of follow the Japan and India models of how are they investing more in the United States."

• China's Coercion Campaign: Taiwan continues to face relentless efforts from China to assert dominance, including cyber attacks and gray zone operations, which remain the most targeted geography per capita globally.

  Mike Baker [52:36]: "Cyber attacks are constant. It's probably the most attacked geography on the planet per capita."

Conclusion

The episode of The President's Daily Brief delves into the escalating tensions along Mexico's border with the aggressive stance against drug cartels, the complex and somewhat exclusionary US-Russia negotiations to end the Ukraine war, and the broader strategic maneuvers by China amidst US internal and external distractions. Additionally, Taiwan's precarious position continues to be a focal point in US-China relations, underscoring the multifaceted challenges faced by the United States in maintaining global stability and security.

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Yates [08:47]: "Claudia Sheinbaum... are going to kinetically attack the cartels and they're going to stop the fentanyl, they're going to dismantle the cartels."

• Steve Yates [18:52]: "This really allows the United States... isolate their ability, isolate them from the groups and other people and institutions that they use to do business around the world."

• Todd Bensman [29:20]: "President Trump had some sharp words for the Ukrainian leader, labeling Zelensky as a... dictator without elections."

• Mike Baker [44:58]: "They have a property bubble that's awful. You can see videos of huge multiplexes of high rises getting demolitioned."

• Mike Baker [50:27]: "Our main advantage is that our technology is better and our fighting force is proven, trained, combat experienced and ready."

For more insights and detailed analyses, listen to the full episode of The President's Daily Brief hosted by Mike Baker.