The President's Daily Brief – Situation Report
Episode: PDB Situation Report | January 10th, 2026
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Officer)
Guests:
- Rick de la Torre (Retired CIA Caracas Chief of Station)
- Behnam Ben Taleblu (Foundation for the Defense of Democracies – Iran Program)
Release Date: January 10, 2026
Episode Overview
This episode tackles two urgent global crises: the dramatic U.S. operation to capture Nicolás Maduro and the uncertain prospects for Venezuela’s future, followed by an in-depth analysis of the rapidly escalating unrest in Iran. Drawing on exclusive expert insights, Mike Baker explores the immediate aftermath and longer-term implications of these pivotal events for U.S. national security, the Western Hemisphere, and global geopolitics.
SECTION 1: Venezuela – After the Maduro Takedown
Guest: Rick de la Torre, former CIA Chief of Station in Caracas
1. U.S. Special Forces Capture Maduro
Key moment: [00:12]-[01:09]
- Less than a week prior, U.S. special forces and the CIA conducted a coordinated operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and extradite him to the U.S.
- Mission focused on speed, surprise, and minimizing broader conflict; months of intelligence and surveillance preceded it.
- Now, attention is on the consequences: Venezuela's stability, its military and security services, and how international actors will respond to the power vacuum.
Quote:
“For the first time in a long time, the people of Venezuela are going to have an opportunity to get their democracy back, to get, to get themselves realigned again with the rest of the world.” – Rick de la Torre [01:21]
2. Situation on the Ground
Key moment: [02:46]-[04:16]
- De la Torre describes covert U.S. intelligence work in Venezuela even after the embassy closure.
- The immediate aftermath: Delsy Rodríguez (former vice president) now serves as interim president; key regime power-brokers remain in place.
Analysis:
- Unsurprisingly, removing the “figurehead” doesn’t immediately transform the regime or daily life.
- Due to the exile of most dissident political leaders and over a third of the population outside the country, true transition is complex.
Quote:
“You got to deal with something. So I think in this case, what they’re doing is they’re pinching their noses, they’re dealing with Delsey in the interim…” – Rick de la Torre [05:11]
3. The Path Forward & Challenges
Key moments: [06:11]-[08:07]
- Security needs stabilizing before a return of exiles and investment, then free elections.
- Potential for elections in 3-9 months “if things continue to move smoothly.”
- Corruption runs deep; simply replacing leadership may not yield change.
Quote:
“She got 80% of the vote. I’m confident this time around she’ll get 95%... And then no one, I mean, no one… can then say, well, she’s somehow illegitimate.” – Rick de la Torre on María Corina Machado [07:03]
4. The Role of Foreign Powers
Key moments: [11:36]-[13:48]
- Venezuela as a "launching pad" for adversaries: Russia (military presence), China (oil-for-debt deals), Iran, Cuba.
- Under Maduro (and Chavez before), Venezuela issued passports to Iranian terrorists; supported far-left militants.
- Russia employed military support and joint anti-narcotics ops; China used oil arrangements to exert influence.
- Capture of Maduro may yield critical intelligence for U.S. agencies.
Quote:
“Venezuela became… like an aircraft carrier in our own hemisphere where the Chinese, the Russians, and others could then export their chaos…” – Rick de la Torre [13:10]
5. Cartel de los Soles & Corruption
Key moments: [15:00]-[19:18]
- The Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns) is real, not a CIA invention: a criminal enterprise embedded in the Venezuelan military.
- High-ranking officers coordinate with Colombian guerrillas to move drugs through Venezuela; kickbacks fuel regime corruption.
- With Maduro gone, entrenched interests (“five families running Venezuela”) will resist relinquishing their power.
Quote:
“It is as real as it gets… This is like typical mafia…except they were all wearing Venezuelan military uniforms.” – Rick de la Torre [16:11]
“You have five families that were running Venezuela. Then you had ten families that supported…the big picture…” [20:21]
6. Scenarios for the Regime’s Enforcers
Key moments: [20:21]-[24:01]
- Three likely outcomes for top regime loyalists:
- Flee to Cuba or Russia
- Attempt military resistance against the interim government
- Feign innocence, offer cooperation
- U.S. may consider offering amnesty or off-ramps, but top officials have “innocent blood on their hands.”
Quote:
"The options are closing for them and there’s going to come a time where they’re going to have to face justice." – Rick de la Torre [23:45]
SECTION 2: Iran – Protests Put Regime on the Brink
Guest: Behnam Ben Taleblu, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
1. Mass Nationwide Protests: Origins and Meaning
Key moments: [29:25]-[34:56]
- 12 days of nationwide, escalating protests – from economic frustration to open rejection of regime legitimacy.
- Crackdown includes violence, arrests, information blackouts; yet the tone has shifted to outright defiance.
- Unrest follows months of economic crisis, failed negotiations, and regime defeats abroad.
Quote:
“We are dealing with the battle between the pro-American and the pro-Israeli street against the anti-American and the anti-Israeli state in a critical region…” – Behnam Ben Taleblu [30:29]
2. How These Protests Differ
Key moments: [30:29]-[34:56]
- “Protests are almost a feature” in the Islamic Republic, but since 2017, triggers have changed:
- No longer about reform, but about regime change and political revolution.
- Diverse social, economic, and environmental grievances now converge around anti-regime anger.
- The resilience of the “street” has surprised observers after previous brutal crackdowns.
- No “rally around the flag” – instead, protesters burn regime flags and topple regime iconography (esp. Qasem Soleimani statues).
Quote:
“It is a stridently anti-regime protest… the battle between the street and the state in Iran.” – Behnam Ben Taleblu [30:59]
“You see actually protesting Iranians burning the regime's flag, taking down the regime's flag...” [34:35]
3. U.S. and International Policy Options
Key moments: [36:34]-[39:39]
- Former President Trump is vocally supporting Iranian protesters on social media and threatening action, but direct support is debated.
- Policy recommendation: Use economic pressure (“the Venezuela Model”) – seize oil tankers, increase sanctions, reduce regime revenue.
- Risk: Iranian regime could retaliate by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, but U.S. has legal and operational channels to enforce sanctions.
Quote:
“Replicate the Venezuela model… Take the tankers.” – Behnam Ben Taleblu [37:18]
“This is a sanctioned country with sanctioned vessels selling a sanctioned commodity to another sanctioned entity. It should be pretty easy...” [38:40]
4. Drivers, Outcomes & What Comes Next
Key moments: [42:21]-[49:07]
- 2025 was catastrophic for the Iranian regime: war setbacks, failed negotiations, and severe economic/environmental crisis.
- Protests sparked by currency collapse; quickly spread due to the accumulated economic/social stress and belief that “the regime is the problem.”
- Three possible pathways:
- Evolution – The deep state manages a power transition (unlikely due to tight regime-security ties).
- Devolution – Security apparatus fragments, sparking internal collapse.
- Revolution – Popular uprising removes the regime, but post-regime order is uncertain.
- The Iranian Crown Prince in exile has unexpectedly deep support.
- X-factor: Will security forces defect or hold? Unconfirmed reports the regime is relying on foreign (Arabic-speaking) proxies as loyalty wavers.
Quote:
“It’s not just about the regime falling, it’s the manner in which the regime falls. There’s three roads ahead here. There’s evolution, devolution, and revolution.” – Behnam Ben Taleblu [43:57]
“Keep your eyes on that security forces, that’s the X factor to see if they shoot, if they defect.” [48:46]
5. The Role of Opposition Groups
Key moments: [49:07]-[50:43]
- The MEK (Mujahedin-e Khalq) remains deeply unpopular inside and outside Iran, seen as fringe, divisive, and irrelevant.
Quote:
“No doubt the MEK doesn't really play well with anyone else that's not their own…” – Behnam Ben Taleblu [49:37]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “Can you imagine, Mike, if I would have told you 10 years ago that we would have had Spetsnaz running around in our hemisphere?” – Rick de la Torre [12:21]
- “This is like typical mafia, right? You know, you've got your earners, you've got your captains, you've got your foot soldiers. And that's exactly how they were running it...” – Rick de la Torre [16:31]
- “I do hope that what we’re seeing is an actual change for the betterment, for the future of the Iranian people... our tendency is still to be hopeful and think, okay, well, this is it, this is the one.” – Mike Baker [50:43]
Timestamps for Major Segments
- [00:12] Venezuela: Operation to remove Maduro & aftermath
- [02:40] De la Torre on U.S. intelligence activities in Caracas
- [04:16] Analysis of power dynamics after Maduro’s capture
- [06:11] Timelines for stabilization and elections
- [11:36] Foreign actors in Venezuela (Russia, China, Iran, Cuba)
- [15:00] Cartel de los Soles explained
- [20:21] Scenarios for the regime’s power players
- [29:25] Iran: Protests expand, regime’s grip erodes
- [30:29] Protest evolution and regime rejection
- [36:34] U.S. policy options and risk analysis
- [42:21] Structural problems undermining Iran’s regime
- [43:57] Three paths for post-regime transition
- [49:07] Relevance of opposition groups (e.g., MEK)
Episode Tone and Takeaways
The episode is urgent, insider-driven, and pragmatic: Mike Baker and his guests draw on extensive CIA and policy backgrounds to offer realistic, sometimes unsparing analysis, leavened with moments of gallows humor (“an assisted living facility in Moscow for exiled autocrats”). The overarching tone is one of cautious optimism—recognizing the historic potential for change in both Venezuela and Iran, while stressing the messiness, the risks, and the critical role of international engagement in shaping outcomes.
For listeners, this episode delivers an up-to-the-minute, nuanced assessment of two of the world’s hottest political flashpoints, packed with strategic insight and clear-eyed warnings about what may come next.