PDB Situation Report | January 11th, 2025: Ukrainian Counter-Offensive & South Korea's Political Crisis

Summary

PDB Situation Report | January 11th, 2025: Ukrainian Counter-Offensive & South Korea's Political Crisis

Released on January 11, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of "The President's Daily Brief," host Mike Baker delves into two major global issues: the unexpected Ukrainian counter-offensive in Russia's Kursk region and the escalating political crisis in South Korea. Former CIA Operations Officer Mike Baker, along with expert guests George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War and retired U.S. Army Colonel John Mills, provides in-depth analysis and insights into these critical situations.

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Ukrainian Counter-Offensive in Kursk Region

Overview of the Offensive

Mike Baker opens the episode by discussing the recent surprise counter-offensive launched by Ukrainian armed forces in Russia's Kursk region. Utilizing British-made Challenger 2 tanks and advanced electronic jamming equipment, Ukrainian troops targeted vital Russian supply lines and military installations, achieving a tactical advancement of approximately 1.7 miles beyond the frontline. This operation resulted in significant casualties for Russian and North Korean forces, with reports indicating around 3,800 North Korean soldiers were killed or wounded.

Analysis with George Barros

George Barros provides a detailed breakdown of the offensive:

• Scale and Tactics: Barros assesses the operation as relatively small, involving battalion-sized attacks with two to four Ukrainian companies. Despite its limited size, the use of electronic warfare effectively degraded Russian drone capabilities, allowing Ukrainian mechanized platoons to advance.

  "The Ukrainians tested out some interesting tactics for this attack. They successfully blanketed the Kursk area of operations with electronic warfare interference..." ([05:37])

• Russian Response and Sustainability: The offensive, though initially successful, has been met with strong Russian resistance. Barros highlights the unsustainable casualty rates for Russia, estimating over 400,000 casualties in 2024. The high losses are depleting Russia's labor force and economic stability, pushing President Putin towards potential mobilization.

  "The Russians currently have a labor deficit of about a million people. Those are people that aren't able to work." ([10:02])

• Strategic Implications: Barros suggests that Ukraine's offensive could either be a preliminary move for a larger operation or a strategic gamble to regain momentum. He emphasizes the importance of sustaining pressure on Moscow's assets to potentially break the back of the Russian economy and military.

  "If we continue to sustain the Ukraine in this fight, the Russian tank is just going to run out of gas eventually." ([09:54])

Casualty and Economic Impact

The discussion underscores the bleak outlook for Russia's continued military engagement. With high casualty rates and diminishing resources, Russia's ability to sustain prolonged conflict is increasingly in question. Barros warns that President Putin may be compelled to declare mobilization, further straining the Russian economy and public support.

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South Korea's Political Crisis

Current Situation

Transitioning to Southeast Asia, Mike Baker examines the tumultuous political landscape in South Korea. Impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol remains barricaded in the presidential residence, resisting arrest attempts amid accusations of insurrection following his declaration of martial law. Retired U.S. Army Colonel John Mills joins the discussion to shed light on the unfolding crisis.

Insights from Colonel John Mills

Colonel Mills provides a contrarian perspective, challenging the mainstream narrative:

• Martial Law and Political Manipulation: Mills argues that President Yoon's declaration of martial law is constitutionally valid and criticizes the legacy media for misrepresenting the situation. He suggests that the impeachment charges are politically motivated, aiming to obstruct Yoon's potential re-election in 2027.

  "This is a proxy conflict in so many ways. This is exactly what's going on." ([31:35])

• Media Bias and External Influences: Mills contends that the legacy media and the Democratic Party are distorting facts to suit their agendas, implicating Chinese interference in supporting pro-impeachment movements.

  "The Democrats over there, they are called the Democrat Party... this is a proxy conflict China is trying to take out." ([36:31])

• Implications for U.S.-South Korea Relations: He emphasizes the importance of U.S. support for Yoon Suk Yeol, arguing that stability in South Korea is crucial for countering Chinese influence in the region.

  "As soon as Trump comes on board, he can Trudeau, Lee and all the communists over there." ([37:37])

Public Opinion and Potential Outcomes

Mills highlights the divided public opinion in South Korea, with significant protests both supporting and opposing Yoon outside his compound. The presence of American and South Korean flags indicates a deep-seated proxy conflict influenced by broader geopolitical tensions, particularly with China.

"You were seeing so many American and South Korean flags over there. That's why you're seeing the red mega hat. This is a proxy conflict in so many ways." ([36:53])

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Additional Topics Discussed

Panama Canal and U.S. Influence

Mike Baker and Ryan Reynolds briefly touch upon the strategic importance of the Panama Canal, criticizing U.S. neglect over the past 25 years and highlighting Chinese encroachment in the region. They discuss the need for renewed U.S. engagement to counterbalance Chinese infrastructure investments.

Vulnerability of Undersea Cables

The conversation shifts to the recent sabotage of undersea cables near Taiwan, attributed to covert Chinese operations. Reynolds explains the strategic disruption of global telecommunications as a precursor to potential quarantines, drawing parallels to Soviet-era tactics.

"And they know the legal difference of the word quarantine versus blockade." ([48:02])

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Notable Quotes

• George Barros on Russian Casualties:

  "If we continue to sustain the Ukraine in this fight, the Russian tank is just going to run out of gas eventually." ([09:54])

• Colonel John Mills on Media Bias:

  "This is a proxy conflict in so many ways. This is exactly what's going on." ([31:35])

• Ryan Reynolds on South Korea's Crisis:

  "This is a proxy conflict in so many ways." ([36:53])

• George Barros on Russian Economy:

  "The Russians have been sacrificing the health of the economy in order to sustain his force generation within Ukraine." ([10:02])

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Conclusions and Future Implications

The episode underscores the intricate and evolving nature of global conflicts, emphasizing the critical roles of military strategy, economic stability, and geopolitical alliances. The Ukrainian counter-offensive highlights the potential for significant shifts in the Russia-Ukraine war, while South Korea's political turmoil reflects the broader struggle for regional dominance against Chinese influence.

Mike Baker concludes by stressing the importance of staying informed and vigilant as these situations develop, anticipating that 2025 will continue to present complex challenges requiring strategic foresight.

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Stay Informed

For listeners seeking deeper engagement, "The President's Daily Brief" invites questions and comments via email at [e-mail]. Premium membership options are available for ad-free listening and additional exclusive content.

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Note: This summary is intended for informational purposes and reflects the discussions and viewpoints presented in the January 11, 2025, episode of "The President's Daily Brief."

Transcript

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll kick things off today with a surprising counter offensive by Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region, targeting key supply lines and catching Moscow off guard. George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War. Well, he joins us to break it all down. Later in the show, we turn to the escalating political crisis in South Korea, where the nation's impeached president has been barricaded in the presidential residence, defying arrest attempts amid allegations of insurrection following his brief declaration of martial law. If you're confused, well, you're not the only one. But joining us to provide insight into that situation will be retired U.S. army Colonel John Mills. But first, our situation Report Spotlight. This past weekend, Ukrainian armed forces launched a surprise counteroffensive in Russia's Kursk region, advancing up to 1.7 miles beyond the Russian frontline. On the first day, utilizing British made Challenger 2 tanks and electronic jamming equipment, Ukrainian troops targeted key supply lines and military installations, disrupting Russian defenses. Now, the operation resulted in significant Russian and North Korean casualties. Remember the North Korean troops with reports indicating that approximately 3,800 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded to date. And for those of you keeping count at home, that would be about a third of those that are believed to have been sent by Kim Jong Un to help Putin with his Ukrainian efforts. This development comes after months of reports suggesting that Ukraine was losing ground in Kursk making this counteroffensive a significant reversal, of course, in momentum. Ukrainian military leadership has described the operation as a critical step in regaining control over contested areas and applying pressure on Moscow's assets near the border. Still, we don't know if this represents a serious effort to push deeper into Russia or if it's some type of desperate gamble from Ukraine, which many observers believe is frankly on its heels right now. For more on this, we're joined by good friend of the show, George Barros. He's the Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War. George, it's great to see you again. Thank you very much for coming back on THE SITUATION report.

[George Barros]

Hey, Mike, thank you so much for having me. Once again, happy New Year.

[Mike Baker]

And to you, too. Here's, here's to a safe and happy and successful 2025. Let's start at the, at the very top here with, with this counteroffensive, this offensive, whatever we want to call it. What do you make of this move by the Ukrainian military?

[George Barros]

Absolutely. So look over Sunday on January 5, the Ukrainians resume defensive operations in the Kursk salient across the international border within Russia. This is the first time that the Ukrainians have gone on the offensive really since fall 2024. For the last several months, it's been the Russians going on the offensive and slowly whittling away at the Ukrainian gains. What I want to say so far is that this attack, it's been pretty small. We assess it to be at about a battalion size. Maybe we've seen two to three, maybe four Ukrainian companies going in, but it's actually fairly, fairly small. On the first 24 hours of the offensive, the Ukrainians managed to move tactically. They expanded their lines very, very slightly. They got into a village called Berdin. But in the last time that's gone through, it seems like the Russians so far have successfully repelled those attacks. They've reportedly cleared Berdin and they pushed the Ukrain, but it's not quite over yet. Russian forces and sources are reporting that the Ukrainians might actually just be showing us the opening foray of a larger operation. And Russians are speculating that this could have been a testing run for a larger operation elsewhere in Kursk or even elsewhere in a theater within Ukraine, like in Donetsk or in the southern front line. Whatever happens, I would be really hesitant to call this a massive operation. I mean, it's a tactical, at best, battalion sized attack. It didn't change the lines a whole lot. It seems like the Russians have pushed back the Ukrainians so far from what we're tracking. And it really leads us to the question of what could the Ukrainian intent be with this operation?

[Mike Baker]

Okay, well, yeah, that was, that was going to be my question for you. I mean, based on all your experience and, and what you're seeing right now, what's your best educated guess as to their reasoning?

[George Barros]

I don't want to speculate too much and maybe erode Ukraine's operational surprise, but I see a couple patterns that are interesting. The Ukrainians tested out some interesting tactics for this attack. They successfully blanketed the Kursk area of operations with electronic warfare interference on the EW spectrum, the electromagnetic spectrum, and that degraded Russian forces ability to use these remotely piloted first person views attack drones to engage Ukrainian vehicles. We saw the Ukrainians moving in these little tiny mechanized platoons with maybe five to six vehicles, a couple of tanks here and there, and they managed to be able to get across the fields that these FPV drones are typically pretty capable at reconnoitering and destroying. We also saw is combined efforts to include Ukrainian himars and long range strikes to interdict Russian rear areas to prevent redeployments, to take out Russian command posts while the Ukrainians were also conducting these EW interference and the ground attack. So it looked sort of like a combined operation or a combined attack where you had multiple different service branches supporting a ground maneuver. And for what it's worth, it seemed to move. That's interesting because we know that the Ukrainian larger counteroffensives of the past, particularly the summer 2023 counteroffensive in the south in Zaporizhzhia were unsuccessful because those Ukrainians weren't able to breach a well to prepare defensive line. In part because the Russians had really strong defenses, they had the ability to use drones. And so the requirement for how to restore maneuver to the battlefield is actually how do you get the ground forces, the guys riding in the infantry, personnel carriers, to actually interact with the electronic defense guys to take out the Russian drones, but not your friendly drones. And then how do you integrate the long range strike capabilities into that as well? And it seems that the Ukrainians might be experimenting with how to achieve a surprise and move tactically by combining some of these complementary effects together. But we'll see.

[Mike Baker]

Okay, yeah, yeah, I appreciate that. And I realize again it's, it's careful. You got to be careful not to speculate here at this point, but what do you, what do you make of, of their position right now in, in Eastern Ukraine? Again you, you kind of pointed to that as saying it any large scale offensive may take place there, but, you know, give us the state of play in eastern Ukraine currently.

[George Barros]

Absolutely, state of play. The Russians have the initiative across the entirety of Eastern Ukraine. The Russians have been attacking and they've conducted very intense attacks throughout the last quarter, late 2024. But the Russian advances really they picked up in September and October. The Russians, for example, the cross of theater, they used to be taking about an average 30,000 casualties killed or wounded per month. But in October, November, December, that kicked up to about 40 to 45,000 casualties. So they really were trying to push hard. In December, however, the rate of Russian advance in Eastern Ukraine slowed down. It was already fairly slow to begin with. I mean, we're talking about the Russians taking a year to cross about 50 kilometers of fields and losing five armored divisions in the process of doing so. But it's been slowing down. And I'm not yet prepared to say that the Russian great defensive in eastern Ukraine that's been going on for the last year has culminated, but they're getting closer to it. The Russians have not notably seized the operationally significant town of Pokrovsk. The defenses there have held up so far so good over the course of the year. The Ukrainians have managed to also hold the other tactically important town of Chasiv Yar, which is defending the flank of the operationally important town of Konstantinivka. And Russian forces have been los a tremendous amount of combat power at rates that are just not sustainable. I mean, if you look at these rates and you think about Russia's ability to continue at this tempo of operations, to push Forward for other 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, particularly with the vehicle losses, which are very hard to replace. It makes us think that, look, Putin really is kind of on a nice edge because if we continue to sustain the Ukraine in this fight, the Russian tank is just going to run out of gas eventually.

[Mike Baker]

What do you make of currently of estimates for Russian casualty losses on a daily basis?

[George Barros]

I think our current running assessment based off of Ukrainian figures estimates that in 2024 the Russians lost a little bit north of 400,000 killed and wounded casualties. And when you aggregate that across the amount of square kilometers, also a little bit north of 4,000 square kilometers that the Russians gained, net net average is about 103 casualties per square kilometer gained, which is pretty pretty horrific and pretty pretty terrible. Now, I oftentimes will hear this narrative that the Russians have, you know, 140 million people. Doesn't matter how many people you Kill, the Russians will just send, you know, even more. And that's just simply a myth. That's not true. People are a finite resource. And what we see now in Russia is actually Putin is sacrificing the health of the economy in order to sustain his force generation within Ukraine. Look, Russian people, you can either serve in uniform in Ukraine or you can work at home in the domestic economy producing GDP for your nation. But you can't do both simultaneously. And if you're killed and wounded, you also can't do either. The Russians currently have a labor deficit of about a million people. Those are people that aren't able to work. And look, as long as they continue to lose 30 to 40,000 people a month, that's even fewer workers to be able to go and support the Russian economy and let alone sustain, you know, killed and wounded veterans, families.

[Mike Baker]

And those, those numbers, those, that 30 to 40,000 monthly, that's. That, that is, as you just pointed out just now, that's combination of fatalities and wounded. Right.

[George Barros]

Killed, a wounded combination. You typically would expect three to one casualty or wounded to kill ratio. But together that's, that's the total casualty count. And look, he's probably gonna have to call mobilization at some point. I, I think it's a question of time. But even if he calls mobilization, it's not a perfect solution because you're just going to be robbing Peter to pay Paul. You're going to have to take people from the factories, from civil services, from a variety of things within Russia that will not be able to contribute to the Russian economy. And the Russian economy is doing really poorly right now.

[Mike Baker]

Not to mention just how unpopular a large scale mobilization would be within the Russian population.

[George Barros]

Absolutely. I mean, Vladimir Putin can scapegoat and shirk responsibility for a lot of his political decisions by blaming it on a minister or a governor or a general. He cannot do that for mobilization. I mean, there are a lot of things he can shirk. But as president of the Russian Federation, calling mobilization is uniquely his, and it's actually the reason why he is uniquely unwilling to make that decision. It's sort of the decision of last resort, but it's, I view it as an inevitability and a question of time at the current tempo.

[Mike Baker]

We got a number of other things to, to cover here, George. I mean, including, I want to dip into what we, you just referenced, which I suppose you could categorize as, you know, what is the Russian population's, you know, thought process right now? What's their morale? What do they think of Putin's war. And then of course, then of course there's the North Koreans. But if you stay right where you go, don't go anywhere, don't leave, don't. Just stay right where you are. And we'll be right back after a quick break.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to THE SITUATION report. Joining me once again is George Barrows of the Institute for the Study of War. George, thank you very much for sticking around. We've got a lot of other things to cover here when we're talking about the Russia Ukraine conflict. But let's, let's talk a bit. And I know that this is, I suppose, a soft science trying to interpret the mood of the Russian population. But, but what's your assessment there?

[George Barros]

Look, there's basically two good polling agencies within Russia that are independent and the polling data suggests that the Russian people are increasingly less willing to support Putin's war. They will of course, continue to do so because they live in a deeply authoritarian state. And the average Russian does not really have the ability to challenge the authorities. But they're looking for a way out. You know, hundreds of thousands of Russians have been killed or wounded. There is widespread shortages of basic commodities. I mean, the price for butter is up by 25%. There are widespread egg shortages. Russians have a lot of cash. That's actually part of the problem. The Russians are flush with cash because everyone has these handouts from the government for going to go fight in Ukraine. We got a new record. Now, the oblast of Samara will give you 4 million rubles, about US$36,000 just as a one time sign on bonus. That's almost four times the average Russian annual salary, just in one sign on bonus. And this causes problems when you have a lot of cash, that causes the prices to go up, that causes inflation to go up. It erodes your actual national wealth. The Russian sovereign wealth fund has been systematically chipped into to keep supporting and funding the Russian defense industrial base. And so really the Russians, they're feeling the brunt of this war economically with their people, with their demographics. And I would argue, especially for the incoming Trump administration, look, if we're going to cut a deal, we shouldn't try to cut a deal on day one or maybe within the first couple months, because the longer we protract this conflict and the longer that we erode Russia's national wealth, we erode their demographic situation, we erode their Soviet era tanks that they're burning through, the more likely you'll get a breakthrough on the battlefield tactically with breaking the back of the Russian economy or in the diplomatic arena as Putin really wants to evade the nexus of these interconnected problems related to sustaining a long war.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I mean, it's a bit reminiscent of the, of the end of the Cold War. Right? We, I mean, that was, that was what essentially broke the bag of Russia then at that point of the Soviet Union anyway, was being outspent.

[Ryan Reynolds]

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[Mike Baker]

They couldn't, they couldn't afford to keep up with essentially the arms race. So I mean, that's, it's a fascinating point, but I mean, how are they, how are they affording that? If you're talking about, you know, somewhere in the region of $36,000 for a signing bonus for their soldiers, how is the Russian economy even at this point? What's propping them up?

[George Barros]

They're Eating into their sovereign wealth. So the Russians have a sovereign wealth fund. Putin built it up in the 2000s when oil prices were high. Russia was really cashing out by selling a lot of crude oil. And the liquidity portion of Russia's sovereign wealth fund was about $122 billion in 2022 before the war. It's now down to $56 billion, the liquidity portion. And the Russian federal budget deficit for 2024 I believe is slated to take about 60% of that liquidity. And so really they're burning through that money. I mean, all the wealth that Russia created for the first two decades of the 20th, 21st century. And that's largely what's been funding this war. Of course, they have fiat printing as well, and they're able to print money as well, but that just caused the inflation to go up. And the Russian Central bank, they currently have a overnight lending rate of 20. I mean, can you imagine that having 21? That's. That's crazy.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, yeah. To what degree do you think China, the Chinese regime under Xi Jinping, to what degree have they played a role in sustaining Russia's economy?

[George Barros]

They do play a huge role. I mean, Russia has been purchasing dual use components from the Chinese. Basically all first person drones of both the Russia that the Chinese use come from China. Tactical gear, ifak kits, body armor. Chinese are also buying oil, they're buying Russian gas. Without China and Chinese economic and political support, even though they're not yet sending at least a weekend, seeing open sources, unequivocal military support, it's been a key ally. All of Russia's allies supporting their effort have been key enablers. The Iranians with the shahed drones has been a huge deal. The North Koreans sending 10,000 troops and also now confirmed heavy artillery, self propelled guns for the first time now reaching the front lines of Ukraine. Confirmed as of today. Without these foreign partners, Russia would have probably gone for broke earlier.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah. Let's talk about the North Korean situation. How effective in your assessment have been the North Korean troops that have been sent up that way?

[George Barros]

We see North Korean special forces and North Korean airborne infantry being used as tactical dismounts. So they are operated without vehicle support. They are typically sent in storms and maybe platoon sized groups to go run across fields and just anchor down and storm stuff. And the Ukrainians kill them in droves, but they also manage to use their mask to be able to achieve tactical objectives. Capture villages, capture fields. And that is a tactical success, but it's perhaps a success. So, you know they're not being used in any sort of special forces operations raids or any sort of complex combined attacks or vehicle support or anything like that. But it's, it's just more mass for the machine. And look, if the Russians can get 10,000 North Koreans on a regular basis, I mean, that can offset up to a third of their monthly casualties. And I think it's my assessment that Putin doesn't want the one time delivery of just 10,000 North Koreans. He would like to make this a irregular, a regular contribution to his overall resources.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, you would have to assume that Kim Jong Un is not going to get any pushback from his population over this, this development over sending additional troops to, to, to Russia. Have you heard anything in terms of. Because they're not doing it, it's not pro bono. Right. It's not because Kim Jong Un is doing it out of the goodness of his heart. What is he getting out of this, do you think?

[Ryan Reynolds]

He's.

[George Barros]

Any money? He's also getting technologies that are sensitive. He's getting support with spaceborne technologies with satellite sensors. He's probably getting ballistic missile and advanced missile technology support. There's also been speculation that he might be getting submarine technology support as well. And so what the Russians are doing here is they're, they're giving cash and they're giving, you know, technology exchanges to really help the, the North Koreans achieve what North Korean military would like to achieve in their theater.

[Mike Baker]

It's a really interesting point going back to something you said earlier, you know, in terms of advice for the incoming administration in the US to not, not be too quick to rush to the settlement table.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Right.

[Mike Baker]

I mean, because right now it appears, and correct me please, if I'm wrong, which has happened on occasion, that, you know, Putin seems to feel as if still he's in the driver's seat. His, his conditions that he's thrown out there for perhaps a negotiated settlement are unacceptable from, from Ukraine's point of view. And so you could argue that, you know, Ukraine needs to change the current dynamic in order to negotiate from a position of strength. So I take your point, which is, you know, either, if you, if you rush into a settlement right now, it could be a very bad deal.

[George Barros]

Absolutely. I mean, because, because Putin is on a collision course with having to call another mobilization with them running out of their Soviet era tanks and armored personnel carriers by close to the end of this year, with Russian inflation and the erosion of their wealth becoming worse. And so what I would tell the future President is, look, Putin has offered zero concessions if you actually look at what he's still demanding, he wants the original set of demands that he had when Russian troops were on the doorsteps of kyiv back in March 2022. And I'm sorry, Mike, but look at a modern map of the battlefield and look at where the Russian military is now. He's in no position to be making those sort of high, lofty demands. In fact, if we're going to broker a deal, it should be a deal that benefits American interests. And actually it should be not us making preemptive concessions to just get to the table, but it should be Putin making concessions to get to a deal. And in fact, I would argue that if Putin is going to continue to put up this front and be an aggressive negotiator, as is his right, as he should, I understand why he does it, then the President should simply say, okay, that's great. I see we don't really have the terms for a deal. Let's see how you're doing in six months. And then return after another. You know, 120,000 Russians are killed or wounded, their wealth is that much more degraded, their inflation gets that much worse, and they come closer to running pretty low on their Soviet era tanks.

[Mike Baker]

I mean, I think, yeah, it's a, it's a really important point because you have to imagine, you know, what is it that, that Putin fears? Well, obviously he fears what every despot or dictator fears, which is losing power, losing control of the population. So if the economy continues to head south and you know, he does have to do a mobilization, all those things, you know, continue to degrade public support. Now again, to your point, you know, he, the, the, what can the population do? It's not like they're going to rise up and start holding daily protests in a large scale manner. But you know, that alone, that fear of losing control of the public could be the one thing that forces Putin to the table with what would be considered appropriate terms.

[George Barros]

Absolutely. I mean, the imperfect analogy is that we're sort of looking at like a late late 80s, like an 1989 scenario where the Soviet Union looks like this incredible menace. I mean, you got, you had recently had a war in Afghanistan and the funding insurgent groups in South America and Africa and elsewhere. But really, if you look at all the indicators for how is the Soviet economy performing at home? How are people doing at home? Is the Russian defense industrial base actually sustainable? And then all of a sudden, when you do the postmortem, when it suddenly breaks down in a sort of dramatic and unpredictable way, you realize that all of the indicators one could collect about Soviet life, about Soviet economy, about how the internal organs were functioning was quite poor. And I see parallels similarly that actually, despite the messages that Putin puts out there, launching these international or, pardon me, intermediate range ballistic missiles in Ukraine recently and all this stuff, you know, having to go to the North Koreans, the Chinese and the Iranians and the Houthis for basic support, I mean, this, this is, this is actually is an indication of weakness and we got to, we got to keep them, we got to keep the speed to the fire.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, yeah, no, very, very interesting, George. Listen, you, you are a wealth of information on this critically important subject. And I know that we're gonna plus, you know, a lot of big words too. So I know we're gonna have you back if you're willing. George Barros, Russia team leader at the Institute for the Study of War. As always, thank you for joining us here on THE SITUATION report.

[George Barros]

Thank you for having me, Mike. Always a pleasure.

[Mike Baker]

All right. Coming up next, South Korea speaking and speaking of other complex situations, South Korea's political crisis takes a dramatic turn as officials attempt to detain the nation's impeached president who remains at the center of a standoff at the presidential compound. Retired U.S. army Colonel John Mills. Well, he's joining us to give his thoughts on this unfolding crisis. Stick around. It is Ryan Seacrest here. There was a recent social media trend which consisted of flying on a plane with no music, no movies, no entertainment. But a better trend would be going to chumbacasino.com it's like having a mini social casino in your pocket. Chumba Casino has over a online casino style games all absolutely free.

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It's the most fun you can have.

[Mike Baker]

Online and on a plane. So grab your free welcome bonus [e-mail] sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary VGW Group Void where prohibited by law 18 + terms and conditions apply. Welcome back to the Situation Report. South Korea is in the midst of a political crisis as impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol remains barricaded in his sole residence. Yes, barricaded. Defying arrest attempts following his brief declaration of martial law back in December. Now authorities, including the corruption investigation office for high ranking officials. Yes, they they have one have faced significant resistance from Yoon's security detail during efforts to detain him on insurrection charges. Now acting President Choi Sang Mok has urged law enforcement to execute the arrest warrant while minimizing violence, expressing his concerns over potential clashes between police and the presidential security forces. Meanwhile, public opinion is divided with protests both supporting and opposing Yoon outside his compound amid freezing temperatures. As the situation unfolds, concerns about potential violence and its impact on South Korea's political stability continue to grow. For more on this, we're joined by retired US Army Colonel John Mills. Colonel, thanks very much for coming on THE SITUATION report. We appreciate it.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Thank you, Mike. Always an honor to be on the show with you.

[Mike Baker]

I appreciate that. And that makes me question your judgment. But let's, let's start with this South Korean Hoo Ha. Tell me about this. The president refuses to who's been impeached, refuses to come out of the presidential compound.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Well, this is an absolute lie. What's being told on legacy media. So he's part of the People's Power Party. People Power Party. They have a hundred of the 300 seats in the National Assembly. Now he declared, Yoon declared martial law. Everybody goes that the classic lie here is, oh, martial law, he was bad. And hey, martial law has a bad history in Korea or Taiwan. But this is not that. And this is where most people it's a total lie and they get it wrong. His in his actually, his the polling of the PPP has actually gone up. It has gone up significantly. It's about to surpass the Democrat Party, which is the opposition party. Sound familiar? Now he declared martial law, which is actually, it's in in the constitution. He can do that so that he could raid the National Election Commission, which makes fault though the National Election Commission in Korea makes Fulton County, Georgia election board look fair and clean. So this is a total lie. The whole reason the Democrat party has 200 of the 300 seats in the assemblies because they stole them. And so he declared martial law like he has authority to in the Constitution. Now he got outvoted and it was voted down, but he had enough evidence already from the National Election Commission. So it is a total lie. This is a communist inspired coup. Now Lee, the leader of the Democrat Party, they're not telling the truth on him. He just got convicted in November for election malfeasance. And there's two other charges pending, which means he potentially can't run in 2027. He's trying to conduct a coup so that he can become the president now. And the Democrat Party, again, sound familiar? Because they're charging you with. What's the word? Insurrection. Where did they get that word from? Interesting. So it is a lie. With most legacy media, it's a total lie. They have no clues to what's going on. Brunson, the General Brunson, who commanded, commands, US Forces Korea, Ambassador Goldberg, they were cut out because they don't want another CIA coup like we pulled on Bolsonaro in art in Brazil, because they know we. They know they can't trust the Biden team. It's a total lie. So there. That. You bet. This is a proxy conflict. And Lee of the Democrats, he's a communist.

[Mike Baker]

But let me. Let me ask you this. Why is the. I mean, in your assessment, why is the legacy media getting it so wrong then? Are they. Are they ignorant or. Or is it. Is it not in line with their agenda, perhaps? I mean, what's the reasoning behind it?

[Ryan Reynolds]

It doesn't fit the narrative. I mean, they're grossly ignorant. Everybody goes, oh, yeah, martial law. Yeah, Korea, oh, yeah, like what happened in 1983. This is not that. Okay? Total lie. And, and what shows you is even though we have 28,000 military there, Goldberg, the ambassador, and Brunson, the Army four star, are already totally cut out of the loop. Just because we have a large military presence doesn't mean we really know what's going on there. Why? Because they don't trust the Biden team. They don't trust the Biden team. I don't blame them after what happened to Bolsonaro in. In Brazil. So this is a total lie. He's got to wait. I mean, I would just. Just. We got to show support. I was on the war room. Oh, we made. We made the front page news. Steve Bannon and I reporting on what's really happening. And it really has emboldened the ppp. They. They showed up in mass to block the arrest. Now they're trying. They're calling it an insurrection. This is not an insurrection. And they're using the corrupt. The corrupt corruption police to make an arrest. The corruption police have no authority over something called. If you want to call it an insurrection, they don't have any authority over that. Okay? They're the. They're the corruption police.

[Mike Baker]

So. But. But where does it go, John? I mean, because I don't see. I mean, it's not a good optic for the White House, regardless of who's sitting in there to suddenly throw their support behind someone who. I mean, I get. I understand what you're saying, and I agree, but I'm just the optic of the White House saying, well, we're now supporting the guy who declared martial law and also, by the way, who's barricaded himself in the presidential compound. I. I don't know that you get the White House to do that. So where does this go?

[Ryan Reynolds]

Oh, well, we, we wait till January 20th and we actually have a functioning president in office. And that's what you is doing. I mean they, that's the, the, the, the PPP and their polling numbers are going up and the Democrat Party in, in the Democrat Party are going down in Korea. It's a lie. What is being told and fed to people. This is Lee is, Lee calls the US an occupation force, that those are fighting words in South Korea. You don't use that expression in South Korea. There are too many. They have great respect for the Americans who died and the South Koreans died keeping, keeping the country free from the Communists. Lee actively. And they've been flying in Chinese. The reports of Chinese nationals being involved in the pro impeachment. Pro impeachment rallies, they're, they're off the chart. So this is a total lie. What's going on that would be right.

[Mike Baker]

In line with the Chinese regime's, you know, practices and behavior is to, is to be providing a variety of types of support to those protests that were taking place. Now, is there, is there any media inside South Korea that is covering this from your point of view in an appropriate manner, or are they all just all in on, on, on, on the standard narrative now?

[Ryan Reynolds]

There's, there's several newspapers and I, I could get to the list of them that are covering this appropriately. But there, there's a real problem. You know, just like we have a legacy media that has dominated the narrative for years. Same over there and, and the Democrats over there, they, again, they are called the Democrat Party. And if you look at the history of them, a lot of the Democrats, they, boy, it almost sounds like Hillary Clinton or, or Obama growing up with their, with their really Marxist training and inclination and background. This is a proxy conflict China is trying to take out. If you look at facing China from our perspective, South Korea is the right flank. Okay. That's the right flank. They also are extremely. I know From World War II there's a lot of hard feelings toward the Japanese, but what Yun has been trying to do, because he sees the greater threat as being the communist and the communist insurgency see North Korea, but China. And he's been developing close. I, I, I know for years and I was involved in a lot of these. It was really hard to have the Japanese and the, and the South Koreans in the same room. A lot of hard feelings from World War II. I get it. I understand it. But Yoon has really tried to really build a solid alliance with the, with the Japanese and the Americans at the same time. And that's what the, that's why the Chinese are making their movement and that's why they, they, they, they're, they. Because number one thing that Lee of the Democrats want is he wants the American Thaad missiles out. Why? Because that's the number one thing the Chinese want. They want the Thaad missiles.

[Mike Baker]

The, the, the strengthening alliance between Japan, South Korea and the US it clearly has pissed off the Chinese regime, Xi Jinping. And so you can see that their, their responses in a variety of ways now to that. So what is Yuen's plan here? Is it simply to sit tight, stay in there barricaded until the inauguration in the U.S. absolutely.

[Ryan Reynolds]

That's what you were seeing so many American and South Korean flags over there. That's why you're seeing the red mega hat. This is a proxy conflict in so many ways. And they're charging them with again, with what? Same thing. They, they, they said they were charging the J6ers with insurrection, which they actually didn't charge them with, but they kept on using the word insurrection. So this is a proxy con. This mirrors what we're going through and have gone through until we were able to beat down the globalists inside of America. So this is exactly what's, what's going on. So, so as soon as Trump comes on board, he can Trudeau, Lee and all the communists over there. So that's, that's exactly what's going to happen.

[Mike Baker]

I'm sorry, did you just patent a new phrase involving Trudeau? Yes, Trudeau, you've turned it into a verb now.

[Ryan Reynolds]

It is a verb. It is a verb.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah. This is, this, the Situation Report is educational on so many levels. Colonel, if you'll stay right where you are. Don't move. We've got to take a quick break and then we'll be right back with Colonel John Mills. Welcome back to the PDP Situation Report. Joining me once again is Colonel John Mills. Colonel, let's, let's move from South Korea over to, I don't know, let's go to Panama. At what point are we going to take back the Panama Canal? I mean, it was a very interesting press conference that the President Elect Trump gave not that long ago, talking about the importance of the Panama Canal and the importance of ensuring that we have control over it in some fashion. Tell me what you think is going on there. Why, why suddenly is he, is he bringing up the Panama Canal?

[Ryan Reynolds]

Well, let's get things first straight. Raul Molino, the new president who was sworn in on July 1st in Panama. Let's get things straight here. The guy is actually a populist and the guy is actually kind of pro U. S. He's just having to deal with an absolute horrendous US State Department that has ignored Panama for 25 years. You know how many times and you know what Panama's number one needs are? There are bridges, there are roads and there's railways. And do you know how Many times a US civil engineering firm since the handover in 2001 has responded to a request for proposal from Panama that's put them out many times since 2001? You want to know how many times a US civil engineering firm has responded to bid? Zero.

[Mike Baker]

I go with zero. See?

[Ryan Reynolds]

Zero.

[Mike Baker]

I knew it. I knew it.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Zero. Now Panama was on the. One of the big deterrents for a US Civil engineering firm to even respond was for so many years Panama was blacklisted as corrupt. They're off that list. They came off that list. But it's kind of a two edged sword. Okay? They're corrupt. Therefore we're not going to let any Americans go down there. Well, what happens? The Chinese move in after a while. The pan is going well, hold it. You know what you guys? Zero, zippo, nada, Zilcho. Did an American firm respond to a single request for proposal? Well, no wonder the Chinese have moved and we created a vacuum. And then you, the number aponte. The US Ambassador, what is our number one priority? Transgenderism. So we go to all these darn conferences, we lecture them on transgenderism and the Chinese come in and now, you know, they built kind of crappy roads and bridges and they haven't delivered on everything but.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, but they've been there roots.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Yeah, they need bridges, they need infrastructure. And we've been a ghost in Panama since the Hanover and the enduring treaty that took effect after the handover. Three elements, three elements where the United States was supposed to be involved and essentially seated, surrendered and walked away. One is the operation, the proper operations of the canal, okay? The security of the canal and the neutrality of the canal. And again, we walked away. We walked away. So let's, we gotta get this straight here. What happened? We're digging out of a 25 year hole of nothingness. We did. We did nothing.

[Mike Baker]

Okay, now, well, I mean John, you could argue that. Look, that's been the pattern of activity in South America, Central America for decades, right? We've had a tendency a variety of administrations to, you know, ignore or act as if it's just not important to Put our top resources in that region, and then we get what we get. Right? Which, which, you know, typically is. Is, you know, governments coming in that are hostile to the US interests, or as you pointed out, the Chinese regime coming in, which they've been doing now for years. Not just there, but also in Africa and elsewhere doing just that. You know, increasing their presence, building infrastructure, whether it's crappy or not, and locking down permits for a variety of rare earth and critical minerals. So I think Panama is just one more example of that.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Yeah, we gotta participate. This is ridiculous. If I had $10 for every time a State Department employee when I was in a bilater, a multi lad with Central or South America, the number of times of. Well, you know, they don't, they don't like us. They have all these bad memories of death squads, and we're just. We just got to kind of sit here and listen to them. We're not actually going to. You know, I. Literally. The number of times that happened in different things, and I just about wanted to choke out some of these State Department dweebs who would say stupid things like that. I mean, it was like.

[Mike Baker]

Well, that wouldn't go. That wouldn't go over well in the meeting. That would not go over well in the meeting. And I also like how you said If I had $10 for every time, which is really inflationary.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Yeah, inflationary.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Yeah. So we'd have enough for a good meal together, Mike. I mean, it would be. It's ridiculous.

[Mike Baker]

There you go.

[Ryan Reynolds]

They have this bizarre worldview that why even have a State Department? Why even have a State Department if. If they're going to. We're going to, you know. You know, when I went down to Panama, you know, one of the dweebs from this, from the. I was down there with Ann Vander Steel and Michael Yan, and somebody from the embassy came out because they wanted to talk to us. And I said, okay, here's, here's the deal. We'll be happy to talk, but it's all going to be on the record. Okay? We're going to be on the record and we're going to be able to talk about it. And the guy goes, well, I got, I got to get approval on that. And he wants clothes back.

[George Barros]

He was.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Oh, no, no, no, that's. That's okay. Okay. Okay.

[Mike Baker]

Loser. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm gonna, yeah, that's gonna take. That's gonna take 12 layers of bureaucracy, Colonel, to get that approval. But, yeah, look, that's. I mean, if we look at what, what Trump is doing. And I think this is a classic example though, in terms of what the, the immediate reaction from the media, of course, to his comments about not just Panama Canal, but Greenland, you know, was the typical pearl clutching that you get from the media because they take everything he says literally. Right. Rather than understanding the personality of the person who's now going to be stepping back into the White House and, and thinking, well, maybe, maybe these are negotiating tactics. So maybe he's talking about these things for a specific reason and you shouldn't perhaps just take everything he says literally.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Mike, I don't know about you. I took negotiation classes both as a special operations officer, as a US Government civilian. I took a number of professional negotiation classes. A good friend of mine who was a career foreign service officer, we were talking about this, I said, well, how many times did you take a negotiation class because you were, you were responsible for all this complex negotiation. You know what his answer was?

[Mike Baker]

I'm going to go with zero.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Zero.

[Mike Baker]

See, I could see we're on the same track.

[Ryan Reynolds]

This is the typical Harvard, Harvard Belfer center imperious attitude. What do I need? I need a class, a professional class of negotiation. I bought a car. I, I bought a house. I know how to negotiate. No, that's a loser. No, this is. How can we put people in charge of complex negotiations that have never actually been trained on negotiations? I mean, this is ridiculous.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, let's, let's move if we could because there's so much going on in the world and look, we're only a few days into 2025, so I think that you and I are going to be sitting down talking on the situation report and elsewhere numerous times during the course of this year. But let's move to another development, another issue, and that would be the vulnerability of undersea cables critical to infrastructure globally, but recent damage done to subsea cables near Taiwan. What do you make of that?

[Ryan Reynolds]

Yeah, well, the Shenzhen 39, that is actually a ship's name. It's about a 5,000 ton crappy little coastal freighter that off a Keylong harbor, you know, that's only about 300ft of water. They've had plenty of experience in the Baltic busting up the Chinese ships like the new new polar Bear. I mean, who in the bloody world is in charge of ship naming in the Chinese communist potential new New polar bears. Sounds like a Seinfeld episode.

[Mike Baker]

I mean, hey, come on out. Who doesn't, who doesn't love a polar bear? Come on, everybody loves polar bears.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Especially when I was In Taiwan in September. And I met with several, several of the professors at the, the kind of their version of Miter. I mean you know, the send of their version of Miter or RAND or the Aerospace Corporation. I met with their think tape and they said John, we're going to get, we're going to get quarantined within six months. And their first move is going to be they're going to cut the undersea cables. Sure enough, what did they do? They, they, it was the pt, the Pacific Telegraph Express, not Telegraph, it's the PTE cable which is a multi most undersea cables. It's a consortium that own them. It's not one company. But it went north and they drugged that and they snapped the cable and they, the telecom provider knew right, right away something was going on. And no, you know, and, and it immediately did. What this is what they learned in the Baltic. This is what they learned in the Baltic is they immediately went AIs silent so you couldn't track it. I, I was track. That's last known signal was Friday morning. I checked it out and it went dark. And then where did it go? It went to Busan, South Korea. Isn't that interesting? So this is a bad ship. And that was intentional. And this was the first step toward an actual quarantine. And they know that. They know the, the legal difference of the word quarantine versus blockade.

[Mike Baker]

Are they trying to say, I guess what I'm saying, are they trying to send a message or are they testing? Are they, are they looking for response, the extent of potential damage and disruption? I mean because it would seem odd if they're just doing this as a, as a slow build up to a quarantine.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Now this is the, it's all of the above. And you know that the classic. And I can't remember if it was this the Soviets or if it was Mao or Trotsky who said, you know, you, you use your bayonet and you push and if you feel softness, you keep pushing, you feel hard, you stop. And the same thing what they're doing. But this was, they took the Baltic experience. They've been busting up since December 23rd in the Baltic. And hey, it's, it's, it works. It's only about 300ft of water. That isn't much. And they, it's not, this is not deep water and you're gonna, you're gonna catch a cable. It's kind of a Luddite approach, but it works. And you just drag your cable, you're gonna snap it.

[Mike Baker]

It's not the first incident either. I mean, of this and the same methodology used to damage these cables.

[Ryan Reynolds]

It's the first major because there was a smaller cable trunk line that went to one of the you had Kinman and then Mat Su up north. It was up to Mat Su, one of the coastal islands of one of the coastal islands. That's like with within a bit, it's within mortar range of the of the mainland. They cut that cable. I'm not sure that one was a totally intentional one or just a bunch of Podunk fishermen just messing around, but this was definitely intentional. And it went AIs silent and then disappeared up towards South Korea.

[Mike Baker]

Well, I tell you what, I don't know that we solved any problems here today, John, but I think we've certainly highlighted a number of problems. And like I said, I think 2025 is going to present us with a number of opportunities to have these conversations because I don't think things are going to suddenly turn calm and peaceful. Colonel John Mills, as always, thank you very much for your insight, for your willingness to join us here on THE Situation report. And I hope to see you again very soon.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Oh, absolutely, Mike. Thank you so much.

[George Barros]

Take care.

[Mike Baker]

Well, that is all the time we have for the BDB Situation Report. If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes, just reach out to [e-mail] because you know what we do with your comments and your questions? We take them and eventually once a month or so, we throw them into an episode that we call Ask Me Anything. Right. And don't forget, when you send in your question, the comments early in this new year. Also send along what your New Year's resolutions are to listen to the podcast of this show ad free. And you can do that if you are so inclined. Become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by simply visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker, and until next time. Well, you do know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.