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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | January 17th, 2026: If the U.S. Hits Iran: A Fighter Pilot Breaks It Down & Venezuela at a Crossroads
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Mike Baker
Welcome to the PDP situation report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, after weeks of violent crackdowns, signs are emerging that Iran's protests may, I say, may be easing. But the White House says military options are still very much in play. Former U.S. air Force fighter pilot Ryan Bodenheimer joins us to walk through what a potential strike scenario could involve. Later in the show, President Trump meets with opposition leader Maria Corinna Machado as Venezuelan politics enters a dramatic new phase that could reshape politics across the Western hemisphere. Now, NTD TV correspondent and Venezuela analyst Luis Martinez stops by to break down what's happening and importantly, what may come next. But first, today's situation report spotlight. There are growing indications that Iran's streets are beginning perhaps to calm after weeks of heavy protests and deadly repression. But the situation does remain volatile and the White House has made clear that military action is still on the table. Now, if Washington were to move from diplomatic pressure to kinetic action, the question of course is how? What would that look like? What would a U. S. Military response be? What options are realistic and what would matter most in the early stages? Joining me now is Ryan Bodenheimer, although you might know him as Max Afterburner. He's a former U. S. Air Force fighter pilot, notably serving with the u. S. Air force Thunderbirds and flying F15E Strike Eagles. You can check out his excellent YouTube channel. That's at Max Afterburner, USA. Ryan, thanks very much for joining the situation report today.
- [02:59]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Hey, Mike, great to be with you, man. Thanks for that intro. Appreciate it.
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Mike Baker
No, of course, of course. Now, do you prefer being called Ryan or do you prefer being called Max?
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Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Ryan's great, but I'll answer to both.
- [03:11]
Mike Baker
Okay. Ex. Excellent, actually, by the way, not to disappear down a rabbit hole this earlier in our conversation. At some point I will. I'm sure. One of my brothers was a F4 guy in Vietnam and his, his pseudo was Max Gross. So we have that in common. Sort of. Not really, but yeah, I feel a.
- [03:35]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Collab coming on, man. Anybody who's flown the F4, I mean, that is literally the Ford pickup truck of fighter jets, you gotta have cojones. So send them my way.
- [03:43]
Mike Baker
Yeah, yeah, he did. He did a couple of tours over there. It was, it was a hell of a ride. And, and he, and he's one of those guys who enjoyed it very much.
- [03:55]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
You went CIA instead, right?
- [03:57]
Mike Baker
Yeah, well, well, nobody in my family would say I was the smart one in the bunch, so I. Listen, let's get, let's get stuck into it. First of all, actually for the benefit of all our viewers, if you give just a brief background.
- [04:11]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Yeah, absolutely. So I went to air force pilot training, ended up getting the F15E out of there. Did two operational assignments in the F15E, deployed to Afghanistan during one of those, to Operation OEF and did 70 combat missions over there, about 300 combat hours, mainly close air support. Did some air patrols as well, basically keeping Iran in check. So kind of ironic that we're talking about that now, but a story if we have time at the end of probably chasing some F14s. I don't know exactly what they were chasing, something back into Iran, which was awesome. Got back from that tour, did a little bit more time in the F15E and then transitioned to the Thunderbirds. Did about 150 air shows around the world and got to display American air power to the globe. I mean, it was a dream job. So. And here I am now, washed up fighter pilot on YouTube. Got the max afterburner channel going now.
- [05:03]
Mike Baker
So that's, that's fantastic. I gotta tell you something. Anybody who's watched the Thunderbirds, I, you know, it's, it's remarkable, right? It really is remarkable. Can you. I know we're, we're we gotta be talking about Iran. But I'm fascinated. Just, just if you can give the viewers just a taste of what that's all about.
- [05:23]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Yeah, for sure. Well, the thing that I think it'd be interesting for the viewers to know when it comes to these high level teams, you know, whether it's flying fighters, flying for the Thunderbirds, Delta Force, Navy SEALs, all these teams, the thing that I'm kind of realizing, having worked with a lot of those special operators and then, you know, flown in the Thunderbirds, it's really teams that do the fundamentals really, really well over and over and over again. I don't know if you saw that in the CIA, but basically taking the basic fighter skills that I learned from, you know, basically year one of being a fighter pilot and just doing those incredibly well until you get to the point where you can do them three feet away from another fighter jet, but the principles remain the same. And then it's just discipline every single day. Can you get better every single day? Because when we first start out flying, we're not flying, you know, three feet apart, we're 20ft apart. And then you get closer and closer and closer. So, you know, you can basically train any fighter pilot to do it with enough repetitions if the discipline is there and the desire to get one degree better every single day is there. And then you get to the point where you're flying 100ft off the ground, 500 knots, 3ft away from another jet, and the margins for error are incredibly small. So hopefully that kind of gives you an idea of, you know, what it takes to get to that level.
- [06:37]
Mike Baker
Yeah, that, that is incredible. No, we did, we trained a lot because again, you were going for muscle memory for when things head south, but what you were doing, that, that takes it to a whole different level, frankly. So full, full credit to you and all the, all the folks that are out there doing that. It really is remarkable. But let's, let's switch to, let's switch to Iran. It's a very fluid situation. Right. It changes by the hour, basically, in terms of both what's happening on the ground in Iran and what's been happening in the White House in terms of possible US Reaction. Now, President Trump has said that in his words, help is on its way. Right? He's, he's stated that, which is probably the strongest phrase that any U. S. President has used regarding Iran and all its history of protests, and then the fact that the protests get squashed and never receive any international community support. So if we just look at Kinetic action, and we talk about if what he means by help is the possible use of the military. What I want to explore with you is what would that look like? And maybe we start with what would. What would go into the process of creating a target package and what would an airstrike look like from your perspective?
- [08:08]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Yeah, those are all great points. When I think of air power, you know, a lot of the large force exercises that I've done, like Red Flag, Green Flag, a lot of this is how well can you work with other teams in the US military? And that includes, if you're an F35 squadron, how well do you work with F15Es? Because there's so many ripples that happen here. You know, quote I love is everybody's got a plan till they get punched in the face. You know, thanks to Mike Tyson for that quote. But you got to think about what are the second, third order effects of an airstrike happening, and then how do you counter that? And that's where teamwork really comes into play. So for me, if I was the mission commander, and there will, you know, if there was airstrikes going into Iran, there'd be a mission commander, whether that's F22 pilots, F35 pilots, B2 pilots. So when you think of this whole air power, like, I think of it like an onion, basically. Like, there's different layers to what you would build in for the initial strikes, and then there's different layers to what you would build in for the aftermath of what Iran's going to do. So, personally, you know, if I look at it from, you know, obviously fully unclassified perspective, you got to think first, with that first layer of. Of ISR intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance of, like, hey, what are we striking here?
- [09:22]
Mike Baker
Right?
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Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
What's the end goal? You know, if President Trump's end goal is to just stop the killing of protesters, you know, it's obviously the number I've seen is in the thousands at this point. Well, that's a whole nother tactical problem than, you know, removing Ayatollah Khamenei from power.
- [09:35]
Mike Baker
Right.
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Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
So the first thing the mission commander is going to ask is, hey, what's the target? And that's something we always do in the fighter pilot world, is, what's the objective? And you start there and then you work your way back. So if the objective is, let's stop the killing of all these protesters, you know, we've heard Iran say, no, there won't be any assassinations, or, you know, there won't be Any executions of the protesters now? Right. We don't. That's basically.
- [09:58]
Mike Baker
I always, I always take the Iranian Foreign Ministry at their word. Yeah, they're. They're an honorable bunch. I tried to say honorable, but that didn't come out very well.
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Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
No, I. Message received. They remind me of a bad ex girlfriend that gaslighted me every other week. So I totally get.
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Mike Baker
Let's switch topics and talk about that.
- [10:21]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
That's next episode. But yeah, I think you got to think about what, what the goal is. And so I personally, I would start with some, like, amazing drone capability that the US military has, like RQ170, ironically enough. That's the drone that, you know, they apparently got from us, you know, years ago that crash landed in Iran. But that's probably the leader of the pack to go in and do this, this surveillance to see what's actually going on there so that we're not being gaslit. You know, if they're saying they're not doing these. Okay, cool, thank you. But we're going to get some really good data and that'll be piped directly into the situation room, you know, for the, for the President to use to make really, like very quick decisions with. So that'd be the first layer that I would think of. And then after that, okay, now if we want to strike these, do we actually use drones? Do we use a combination of drones and manned aircraft like the F35? I mean, if you looked at that venezuela operation, the F35 is like, I mean, for the air power side, the game ball goes to the F35. Right. The overall game ball, I'd say, goes to Delta Force for operations like that. But for the air power side, you gotta give that to the F35 because of the sensors, the avionics. And the cool thing, Mike, that is. Maybe a lot of the viewers don't know is the way that, that F35 talks to other assets is unlike anything else. So, you know, flying combat missions myself, you can get taskings from higher headquarters, you can get information from other assets. And it's kind of, it's high Fidel information that's like a text message, but comes with way more information than just a text message. And so those operators up there in the F35, combining with the power of, let's say the RQ170 or some other drone like an RQ4, which is called the Global Hawk, and that's a bigger drone, maybe not as stealthy, but just the intelligence you can get piped directly into your cockpit and then potentially get a text message from the big man telling you exactly what the commander who's ever in charge of that actual strike being able to real time time, you know, determine what to do with that information from the drone. That's kind of the bread and butter of the F35 Pilot.
- [12:29]
Mike Baker
Is there, is there such a thing? Ryan is, as in a situation like that is information overload.
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Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Yeah, but I think that's why you get paid the big bucks. Right? The big bucks. You know, you get that, you know, fighter pilot, combat pay bonus because you, you're really getting a ton of information. You have to be able to decide what do you pay attention to, what do you disregard. And a lot of the information you're going to pay attention to the most is going to probably come from your wingman who's also interpreting it as well. And then you have the ability to have both people, you know, both members of the formation or all four members of the formation interpreting it. And you can do that real time. You know, I did that in combat. Like, hey, this is what I'm seeing here. This is the target I'm seeing. Are you seeing the same thing? You know, and I, I would, I did it with a backseater at a backseater in the F15E so we could do it, you know, real time in the cockpit. But a lot of this is, you got the best operators in the world up there that can analyze this data and decide what should we disregard and what should we really pay attention to.
- [13:27]
Mike Baker
Okay, no, that, that, that makes good sense. Look, if you don't mind, even if you do mind, if you could stick right where you are.
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Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Dare you.
- [13:36]
Mike Baker
We've got to take a quick break and then we'll be right back with more from Max Afterburner here on the Situation Report. I just love saying that, right? I'm gonna, I'm gonna get myself a name like that. I'm going to come up with it. Maybe we'll do a survey of PDB viewers. What name should I use? Something cool like Jet Stream or something like that. Anyway, I will be back with more for with with Ryan Bodenheimer, AKA Max Afterburner here on the Situation Report. Please stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, as we move into the new year, which we are of course doing, many of us are looking to build a more intentional life, right? To live deliber and better aligned with our purpose and values. You know what I'm talking about? That's why I want to tell you about Glorify. It's the Number one Christian daily devotional app now Glorify could help you lead a more intentional life. They've got a 21 day challenge that helps build that simple but powerful habit of seeking wisdom and guidance every day. Look, you can start your morning with a Bible passage or a daily devotional or an immersive daily walk with God. In the middle of a busy day, you can listen to a curated playlist for quiet reflection. And they've also got sleep meditations to help you wind down and reflect on your day. Look, over 20 million people, that's 20 million people have used Glorify to deepen their relationship with God. They've provided an opportunity now for PDB listeners to get full access to Glorify for less than $30 for the entire year. All you have to do is download the app@glorify-app.com PDB feel closer to God this year with Glorify. Get full access all year for just 29.99 at glorify-app.com PDB Once again, that's glorified-app.com PDB welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is former US Air Force fighter pilot Ryan Bodenheimer. He's also known as, you may know, as Max Afterburner. You can find his excellent YouTube channel. And you got to go check this out, please. You'll find it at Max Afterburner usa. Ryan, thanks very much for sticking around.
- [15:48]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Hey, thanks, Mike.
- [15:49]
Mike Baker
Now, we were talking about what a first strike on Iran might look like. Again, the White House is looking at all the various options. So we're not saying that it would definitely be kinetic action, but I suspect a lot of those protesters on the streets are hoping it would be. But let's look at the defensive side. What's your assessment of Iranian air defenses at this point? What would, what would your guys be facing if they do go into Iran?
- [16:17]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Yeah, that's a great question. And if you look at, you know, recent events, I kind of hinted at this before in that previous segment was, you know, the Venezuela operation, Operation Absolute Resolve, that was against Russian air defenses. Let's just be honest, that wasn't Venezuelan air defenses, those Russian air defenses that the US Went up against. So that's the tactical problem that the mission commander of any strike going in. That's their probably one of their first things they're going to think of. After that ISR part that we talked about, that intelligence and surveillance and reconnaissance part, they're going to think, okay, what's actually going to Try to shoot us down. You know, I mean, that's, that's a, there's a big incentive there to make sure you got that figured out. And it's called the IADS Integrated Air Defense System. So it's not just surface to air missiles like some people might think is basically anything they could do to try to detract your fighter jet strike package from going in and hitting the targets. So it could, it comes down to surface air missiles. That's something you have to, you know, game out and weapon year for. You know, what's going to strike it, how are you going to strike it, how are you going to detect it? And then this is one that's, you know, kind of interesting is who's going to be the bait? You know, how do we get these things to turn on so we can find them? So that's something that you would think about. And then a lot of it in Iran would be their surface to air missile systems from Russia. But in an IAD setup, if you think about what we train for, it also includes, you know, the enemy's jets. So what other fighters are they going to send up to come after us? And I don't if the viewers have been following along with the Iranian air force, it doesn't really exist. I mean, there's, they've got a few jets, they've got some old F14s, rumors of some MiG 29s and then rumors of SU 30s, which are an advanced fourth generation Russian fighter that could be there. I mean, but when it comes to the tactics and the training of those jets versus our Air Force, here's, here's the perspective. The F22 and F35 pilots are going to be up there on the radio. They're going to learn how to speak Persian and they're going to tell those pilots to take off because they're going to want to dogfight and shoot down those planes because that's what you train for. And it's not really going to be a competition, in my opinion, versus an.
- [18:25]
Mike Baker
F22 with the question of, of the target package. You would have to assume that working in combination with our liaison partners, whether it's the Israelis or Jordanians or anyone else, that we've created a package. It's going to need some refining. I would assume, based on the specific requirement in this case, how do you deliver the message that it's time for the regime to go? Right. I'm not calling it regime change, but obviously what you want is the protesters to have enough courage, strength and Resilience to carry this to its best conclusion, which is the removal of, of the mullahs and the irgc. So I would assume there's already a lot of work that's been done. I'm just, I get this is a question, but I'm asking for your opinion on, on a target package for something like this.
- [19:14]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Yeah, that's, that's a great question. I think the, the strategic mindset would be what happens to Iran after the Ayatollah falls and who can actually fill that power vacuum? Because if it's top tier levels of the military that can actually fill that power vacuum, you probably don't want to evaporate all of those in your first strike package and wave of targeting. Right. Maybe you don't want to wipe out the entire irgc or maybe intelligence determines, hey, these folks are, they're way too embedded that they're never going to allow the Iranian people to stand on their own two feet. So yeah, you got to take them out. So I would default to the, the people that are on the ground, boots on the ground, whether that's CIA, Mossad, who's ever there to really have a determination of what does this, what happens to this place after the Ayatollah is gone? Because getting rid of the Ayatollah, I mean, I think President Trump even said this last time during the 12 day war. They knew where he was. It wasn't going to be hard. There was some basically alluding to that. So I don't think that's going to be a tough tactical problem. The real tactical problem is what does this place look like and who's in charge when the Ayatoll is gone, at least for that transition time? How do you get some resemblance of leadership in there to get the Iranian people to finally stand on their own two feet? Does that make sense?
- [20:32]
Mike Baker
Yeah, no, it, it does. And it's a, it's a key question. Anytime you're looking at whether it's Iran or anywhere else, obviously we're going through this real time with Venezuela. Right. So the, the question there, I'm sure a lot of people were thinking once Maduro is, is picked up, oh, it's a happy day, here comes the opposition. They're going to sit in place. It's going to be a democracy and freedom and stability and unicorns will be flying around. But I don't even know if unicorns could fly. I mean, that's a good question, but.
- [20:56]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
I'd fly one if they could. I'd give it a try.
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Mike Baker
Oh, could you imagine? Yeah, in formation. Come on, let's go.
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Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Hey, that's a good right there. Unicorn.
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Mike Baker
So I think it's always that question, what comes in behind it? We've got some tremendously bad examples of what can go wrong. Libya is a good one. Obviously. Iraq fell apart after we fired the entire Iraqi military structure. So we learned a lesson, I believe, from that and we're seeing that in Venezuela. But with, with Iran, you can't really, it's really apples and oranges when you compare it because of the, the differences in Iran, its history, etc. But it's a very important point that you raise your target packages. It's not just that one moment. It's not just saying there's a military element that sits in this base that's been used to, to, to crush the protesters on the street. So let's go after that. There's, there's further thinking, as you pointed out, and I think that's a great point, which is that, okay, well, in the transition to what comes next, what role does the military play? What role does the IRGC play? How does that work in concert with hopefully a better future for the Iranian people? I want to switch gears, if I could just, just, just, you know, if you could humor me. This is a complete turnaround. Is there any one point in your career that stands out for you more than all?
- [22:20]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Man, There's a, there's a few different ones. I, I think the, probably the main one is just deploying and being in combat. I mean, that was like, that's like the super bowl for any fighter pilot or any operator really. And you know, I can, I mean, I've got a handful of missions that, you know, I can just look back on and be really proud about. There was, there was one I could just briefly tell you. I'll give you the one minute story on it, but I remember rolling into a troops in contact situation and it was SEAL team who was doing some high value targeting in the area and one member of the team got separated from the rest of the group. And so we roll in and a lot of times you, before you get to a troops in contact situation, you have a bunch of information about who you're going up against. This time we didn't have that. The line of sight for the jtac, the joint terminal air controller that we normally talk to, we didn't have that. So we kind of had to go by the seat of our pants. We were talking to a member of the team, but not the separated member who had gotten shot on in his foot, I believe. And so we just rolled in at about 100ft over top of this will look like a group of insurgents trying to go and grab this guy. 100ft, you know, max afterburner, literally plug that jet into afterburner over top of this group that was obviously making their way towards this operator and what, you know, you probably know how that would end, right? And so we flew right over top of them. The crowd disperses, you know, dust flies up from the desert floor. And I remember looking back, seeing the kind of the crowd run away and I was like, man, I am doing exactly what I made to be doing. And I am in the right place in the world right now. And I wouldn't trade this for anything. And they were able to get that guy out of there. And that was, that was one of many missions where I can just look back on and be proud. And that was the combat side. And I don't want to take up too much of your time. I could talk about the air show side too. So.
- [24:09]
Mike Baker
No, dude, I mean, if there's anything from the air shows, I, I mean, listen, we got time. And so I, I think people are just fascinated by, by what it takes, right? I mean, we all kind of. We, everybody, yeah, normal people like me and everyone else, we see the movies or we, you know, we see that nowadays, the real life footage from the battlefield, perhaps, but I, I think people are, are just as amazed as they were when, when they first discovered flight and were able to put a plane up in the air. Because it's just, it's an incredible thing.
- [24:41]
Ryan Bodenheimer (Max Afterburner)
Aviation to me is something that brings us all together. You know, you have disagreements over politics or whatever else, but you see six Thunderbird jets flying close together. It kind of just makes you feel proud to be an American and proud to be someone who loves freedom around the world. So, yeah, I think there was so many times, one in particular was I did the Daytona 500 flyover and we did a practice run for that. And then we landed at this little airstrip by the stadium and there was this group of kids standing along the fence. And I remember shutting down the jet. You know, we did a few little interviews there for the local media. And then I walked over to this fence line and the US Military does it right, and the Air Force does it right. The Blue Angels, the Thunderbirds. You're decked out right? You got this awesome flight suit on, this huge patch. You look like a superhero. And so I walked up to this fence and there was this crowd of, of little kids, maybe, you know, I don't know, 8 to 15 years old. And I remember this. I don't know why, but this little girl, I remember her looking at me and she was like, can I do that? Can I fly one of those? Because I either want to be a pilot or a teacher. Then I remember this clear as day. And I just looked at her and I could see that determination in her eyes and how cool she felt like that was. And I was just like, you know what? I believe in you. And you can be a teacher or a pilot. It's possible. And just to see, like, this light turn on inside of her, that's the power of the Thunderbirds. That's the power of the Blue Angels. That's the power of these teams to inspire people. And that went way beyond just kids. I could tell that same story over hundreds of communities that I had the chance to go and fly air shows for around the world. It was amazing.
- [26:22]
Mike Baker
Dude, that's, that's, that's fantastic. That's a great, that's a great way to wrap up this conversation, man. Hopefully we'll have another one when we call you. I hope you won't switch the phone off. We'd love to have you back on to. You know that I don't think the world's going to be a peaceful, stable community of nations anytime soon. So we look forward to getting you back on Ryan Bodenheimer. Seriously, your expertise, your experience. Thanks so much for sharing. And as I mentioned, man, everybody get out there quickly. Go to YouTube. This is a very simple thing. You go to YouTube and you search at max afterburner USA. You won't regret it, man. Thanks so much, Ryan. Talk to you soon. Well, all right. What a. What a great dude. Coming up next, Venezuela is front and center as President Trump meets with opposition leader Maria Corino Machado. You probably heard about this meeting coming up, Analyst Luis Martinez from NTD TV will be stopping by to walk us through the. The stakes and the passable paths forward for Venezuela. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you probably know me as the host of the pdb, of course, but, yeah, I'm also a hygiene expert. And did you know that? Okay, maybe expert is, is a bit of a strong word. Let's call me a hygiene savant. And that's why I want to tell you about Mando Whole body deodorant. Look, have you heard about Mando? It's. It's safe anywhere. This stuff is amazing. You can. Pits, your thighs, your feet. You're even hard breach areas in case you have any of those. It's doctor created and clinically proven to block odor up to 72 hours. Come on, 72 hours. I'm not a mathematician, but I think that's like three days, right? It's baking soda and aluminium or aluminum if you're an American. And paraben free. Right? They've got multiple scents and it comes in glide on stick or spray. It's powered by what they call mandelic acid and it's proven to control odor better than soap. Mando gets the job done right and as they say, don't mask it, Mando it. It's available in retailers near you or head to shopmando.com because for a limited time now new customers get 20 off site wide with our exclusive code. Just use the code PDB@shopmando.com for 20 off site wide. Plus get this free shipping. That's shopmando.com you can tell them the PDB sent you. Mando's got you covered with deodorant plus sweat control. Say goodbye to sweat stains. Nobody needs those. And hello to long lasting freshness.
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- [29:48]
Mike Baker
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. With Venezuela's political future still very much up in the air following the capture of Nicolas Maduro, President Trump welcomed Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corino Machado to the White House this week for discussions on what comes next. That's, of course, the big question. On the surface, the meeting sent a clear signal of US Support for the opposition and a potential path toward political transition in Caracas. But as you might imagine, there's a wrinkle ahead of that meeting. President Trump told reporters that Dely Rodriguez, Maduro's vice president and now Venezuela's acting head of state, is, quote, a terrific person and someone the US could work with. That comment immediately raised questions about Washington's end game. Is the U. S backing the opposition or keeping its options open with elements of the existing regime? It's important to remember the existing regime minus Maduro is still in place in Venezuela. Joining me now to help make sense of it all is NTD TV correspondent and Venezuela analyst Luis Martinez. Luis, thanks so much for joining us here on the Situation Report.
- [31:00]
Luis Martinez
No, thank you, Mike, for the invitation. As I was telling you earlier, huge fan of the show.
- [31:05]
Mike Baker
So great to be here. It's very kind of you to say that. If you could write that on a, on a piece of paper and send it to me, I'll put it in a frame and up on the wall. It's, that's a great thing. Listen, there's so much to, to discuss here, but let's start with the White House meeting between Trump and Machado. Talk about that, the importance of it. Where you think this is going?
- [31:32]
Luis Martinez
Well, I think, Mike, one of the first things that we need to consider when we're getting ourselves into the mind of Maracarina Machado is how does she continue to become a relevant figure in this process that we're seeing that is happening in Venezuela when you have the Trump administration negotiating directly with the interim president, interim leader of Venezuela, Desi Rodriguez. And we even saw this Wednesday some very, very lavish comments coming from President Trump talking about how Delicito Diagnos was great and everything that she's doing is what the Americans are asking. So how does Maracarina Machado, the leader of the opposition who unfortunately is now outside of Venezuela because she had to, she escaped after being over a year in hiding in Venezuela to receive the Nobel Peace Prize in Norway. Now she's outside of Venezuela and we've heard from Trump that according to him, she doesn't have the support of the Venezuelan people and the Trump administration negotiating directly with Delicido Del Rio. So it's a tricky business. The one that she's in, the meeting with the White House apparently went well. She came outside of the White House and the first thing she told Venezuelans that were outside supporting her was that President Trump has Venezuela's back, of course. Does that mean that President Trump supports her political ambitions in the future?
- [32:58]
Mike Baker
That's a big question.
- [33:00]
Luis Martinez
She also, after meeting at the White House, Mike went on to meet with a group of senators on Capitol Hill, Democrats and Republicans, and of course, they're also very concerned to see what the next steps are in Venezuela. So I think the main question is how does she remain a relevant figure, knowing that we're not going to see elections in Venezuela in a week, a month, two months, three months, or this is likely going to be, at the very least, eight months before we see elections in Venezuela. And she is right now outside of Venezuela and as an, as you'd say, not in the room, not in the negotiating room with the regime.
- [33:38]
Mike Baker
Yeah, no, I think when you say that she comes out and says that, you know, the White House or Trump, you know, has Venezuela's back. I, you know, it's a, it's a bit like his comments about Iran. Help is on the way. You could drive yourself crazy trying to dissect and understand, you know, some of the comments from President Trump. I think oftentimes he does that very much on purpose. So, you know, rather than try to parse what that means, you know, I think your point is, is a fascinating one, right? Because I think in a simplistic way, a lot of people looked at this as going, oh, they picked up Maduro and now, you know, he had stolen the last election, so in comes the opposition and they will take over and it's going to be, you know, a free and happy, you know, time for the Venezuelan people. That clearly isn't the way it's going to work. So when you say that she has to figure out a way to be more relevant, are you talking in terms of, of her, her ability to, I don't want to say control, but to lead the Venezuelan military and security apparatus and other elements that remain from the Maduro. Right.
- [34:50]
Luis Martinez
So that's the tricky business because, like, if we lived in ideal world, you know, us Venezuelans, we would have loved, you know, Operation Absolute Resolve. Take Maduro out, put Machado in or Edmundo Gonzalez, and, you know, everyone's happy for it, and then everyone falls in line and we transit into democracy. But that's not how it works. Of course, the armed forces, the security forces, the national police, pretty much the people with guns in Venezuela are still, they're the regime. They're still there. Everyone's still there. Vladimir Lopez still the Minister of defense, and Di Cabello still the Minister of interior. And Desi Rodriguez was the handpicked vice president of Nicolas Maduro, and her brother is the president of the National Assembly. So it's almost as Very little has changed in Venezuela except that now the regime has the constant threat of US Military action and pressure from the Trump administration and of course the oil quarantine, which is going to cut all the income that the regime was making with, with oil sales to China and, and, and other countries buying sanction Venezuela and oil. So yes, my Necarina Machado has to remain relevant politically because hopefully, and Marco Rubio has talked about this, at the end of this three phase process, we will see elections likely she will be a candidate. But we've seen this in the past. A lot of Venezuelan opposition leaders who have gone into exile end up being irrelevant for the Venezuelan dynamic internally. So now her being outside, will she return? Will Maragino Mattela and or Edmundo Gonzalez return to Venezuela while Del C. Rodriguez is still the interim president? That would be very interesting to see and see if President Trump starts more publicly backing Machado before any potential election so that the armed forces understand that they can't just play, try and do a coup like for example in Myanmar. And I think the Myanmar example is very similar. You had a Nobel Peace Prize winner who came into power, but not long after that the, the military took power again and the dictatorship continued. So yeah, we'll see, we'll see how that plays out. And I think what it's important to understand is the transition needs to be slow so that doesn't erupt into violence so that, you know, the people in the armed forces don't feel like, hey, like I'm getting the short end of the stick here and I've got the rifles so I can take control of the country once again and make it more problematic for the US because that's something that the, the Trump administration doesn't want. Troops on the ground and seeing a violent revolt or innocent people being killed, that would be bad press and just.
- [37:38]
Mike Baker
Bad strategy for him. Yeah, no, I did. I take your point about the comparisons to, to Burma. I was out there during that, that transition to Aung San SUU Kyi and what, you know, what happened there, which eventually ultimately wasn't good. Bizarrely, I was also out in the Philippines during the Marcos Toquino business. Huh. So anyway, I don't know why I pointed that out. But listen, with, with this post Maduro situation, I think there's a lot of people, and I'm not sure if I've got a formed question here for you, Luis, but there's a lot of people I think that feel like it's a reshuffling of the deck chairs right as you've already pointed out, the same cats, the same players, the cronies of the Maduro, the people who have been benefited right from, you know, narco trafficking and other ways of corruption, they're still there. And so this is probably not a fair question, but if you had to give your assessment of the likelihood of a transition from essentially a reshuffling of the regime power players to a actual free, fair, Democrat election, Democratic election, what's your assessment of the likelihood of that?
- [39:07]
Luis Martinez
Well, I, I actually have high hopes for that to happen. You have Operation Southern Spear pretty much cutting down 97 of drugs being trafficked by water. And most of the ones coming out of Venezuela were coming that way. They also have the oil quarantine around Venezuela so the country won't be able to make money unless they, they walk the line that the US Is setting for them. We already heard from Del C. Rodriguez that she's going to propose to reform the hydrocarbon law in Venezuela to allow for American companies to come in, American oil companies. And that of course is going to revitalize the economy and the oil sector. And of course, so if you hit the narco trafficking, you bring money into the country. And I think maybe the key figure that I would see as problematic is Dios Dao Cabello. So if I'm, if I had a magic ball and I were to speculate as to what could happen in the future, I imagine that Daisy Rodriguez and Vladimir Lopez and the armed forces are in security establishment will try and capture Diosdal Cabello and hand him over to the United States and probably also negotiate some sort of amnesty for themselves after the transition period. Again, speculation, but let's call it informed speculation. I would assume it was Delsi Rodriguez who negotiated for Maduro to be captured. We know that she was talking through the Qataris and proposing herself as a transition figure. And I'm assuming in those negotiations she's also asking for a lavish mansion in Qatar where she can escape to with a couple million dollars or more after the transition's over. So I think there's a good chance if US Pressure continues, that we can see free and fair elections. Corruption will continue to be rampant. I think that's, you know, 27 years where pretty much the entire government, you can't get acquire any, any government service without some form of corruption. So that, that will be a little more complicated to get rid of, but at least having democratic norms and electing your own officials and just money coming into the country. I think that at the end of the Day. And that's why people are criticizing Trump during his press conference on January 3, that he mentioned oil 20 times but didn't mention democracy once. Well, ask Venezuelans, you don't eat democracy.
- [41:36]
Mike Baker
Right?
- [41:37]
Luis Martinez
So just a lot of investment coming into the country will revitalize it. And Venezuela is in Iraq. It's not Afghanistan. It's a western oriented country with long ties to the United States. Homogenous group, same religion, 94% Catholic. So I think this will be a good example and sort of like the Panamanian example of removing the dictator and facilitating a transition. And Panama, what we saw was the fastest growing country in Latin America for over a decade. And it's actually a beacon of hope when we look at what might be happening in Venezuela right now.
- [42:17]
Mike Baker
Well, if it can work, it's a sweeping change. It's a massive sea change for the region. And I think your point is excellent in terms of what's important. And again, you're dealing with a president, President Trump, who's very business oriented, obviously very transactional. So the focus on the resources just makes sense. And actually, I thought it was actually refreshing when he, he posted on social media his comments about, you know, the oil and the land. You know, we're not letting up on this until you give us back what you've taken. Now, you know, the phrasing, you know, puzzled a lot of people, but at least came out and said because there were people whispering behind the scenes, you know, this is not about narco trafficking, this is about oil. So, you know, full marks to the White House for once, you know, being transparent on it. Have you to that end, has there, have there been any visits at this stage? I know it's early days by US Oil companies. I would think there is a massive incentive to get in there even while things are somewhat unstable, to start exploratory discussions.
- [43:21]
Luis Martinez
Well, we know Chevron's already there. They're the ones that stuck it out and, and dealt with the terms of the regime was imposing on them. We also know Reuters was reporting this week that three European oil companies repsol from, and I forget the third one, are already asking us for licenses to operate in Venezuela. And we had that meeting President Trump with the oil executives. I think the only one who got reprimanded there was ExxonMobil for coming out and saying that there's no legal and security framework for their, for large investments to come in. And President Trump has also mentioned, we don't know the details because that's usually how he goes about things that the US Government would reimburse oil companies for their investments. And I also think that most of the large oil companies in the US Will see this as something they can't miss out on.
- [44:15]
Mike Baker
Right.
- [44:16]
Luis Martinez
We're talking about the country with the largest oil, proven oil reserves in the world, and that it's clearly part of the national security strategy of the Trump administration. And I find it hard to believe that that's going to change after 2028 when they see that the Venezuelan oil production has hopefully reached 50% higher than it is right now. There's a lot of money to be made and I think that's a good sign. And I think that, yes, President Trump is very crass about how he expresses himself, but at least for the Venezuelan people, it's exactly what we want to hear. What we want to hear is large multibillion dollar investments in Venezuela that will bring back some sense of profit jobs, will actually encourage Venezuelan professionals who are all over the world, including over 786,000 here in the US to go back. And these are people with like college degrees from one of the best universities in South America that used to be in Venezuela. So it's, it's also a country that has the human capital to kickstart its economy and get back on track.
- [45:22]
Mike Baker
Well, I tell you, I've got a long list of questions left to, to throw your way, Luis, but we need to take a quick break. So if you'll stay right where you are. We'll be back with more from Luis Martinez here on THE PDB Situation report. So please, you know what I'm about to say, stick around. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is NTD TV correspondent and Venezuela analyst Luis Martinez. Luis, thank you very much for sticking around here on the Situation report. Early on in our conversation in the previous segment, you, you talked about the, in general terms, the timeline for elections, you know, assuming we can get this transition moving to that degree. So I, I think there were some people who imagined, well, look, we, Venezuela had elections, obviously, Maduro, by all estimates, the international community agrees on this, that, you know, they were stolen by Maduro. But what you're saying is they're not just going to revert to the results of the last election, they will have to go through the process of a new election.
- [46:30]
Luis Martinez
Yes, that's correct. So 2024, July, there was an election in Venezuela. The ballots are there and they're in the vault of the Panamanian national bank that prove that Edmundo Gonzalez won with, I think it's more than 78% of the votes. Now, as we've mentioned in the previous segment, you can't just replace Maduro and install Edmundo Gonzalez and pretend that everything's going to work that way. I think that there's a game to be played right now. So according to the Venezuelan Constitution, not that the Constitution has mattered much for the past 27 years, but according to the Constitution, if there is a vacancy of power, the president is absent for some external commotion, as might be the case of being captured and taken to federal prison. The vice president takes over for a period of 180 days before having to call elections. And I think that's what we're going to see. We're going to see the regime led by Desi Rodriguez play out, pretend that they're following the norms, pretend that they're following the Constitution, have this six month period of grace and of, of negotiations with the Trump administrations and then call for elections. We don't know that's going to be within a month after that 180 day period or when. And I guess the worst case scenario is that Desi Rodriguez ends up finishing Nicolas Maduro's term in office, which would be, which run until 2031. I see that as highly unlikely because we've already heard from Marco Rubio that at the end of this process, free and fair elections, and it seemed more like, like a midterm goal, not like a long term goal. And we've already seen also pressure from a lot of Republican senators calling for elections as soon as possible. Now, also very important, Edmundo Gonzalez was the one who won the elections last year that were then stolen by Nicolas Maduro, not Maria Karina Machado. She was barred from running in those elections. So I think that, and that's why I mentioned earlier as well that she, she needs to find a way to remain relevant and then actually be a candidate and be able to be elected legitimate president of Venezuela herself. Of course, there will be other players in the mix, will likely also see regime leaders, quote, unquote, run for office. And I will assume also, or speculate that Chavismo will not die. Chavismo will continue sort of like we saw in Colombia with FARC trying to incorporate into political life and of course infecting the democratic process. But I think Chavismo will survive in one way or another and they will have representation in Congress, hopefully very small representation. But I think it's also at this point embedded in society. It's been 27 years of indoctrination. They've Changed the name of the country, the flag, the shield, the name of the freaking mountain in the capital city. So I think Chavismo is not going to disappear. And you'll see a lot. And we've already seen this. A lot of opposition politicians have to adopt some of the language that Chavismo used in order to connect with popular classes in Venezuela. So, yes, I expect to see elections by the end of this year or early next year.
- [50:03]
Mike Baker
How do you quantify, or can you quantify the numbers, the level of support, hardcore support for Maduro? I mean, that segment of the population that is genuinely upset and will remain upset over what's happened?
- [50:21]
Luis Martinez
I would put it at less than 10%. I would say at least 5%. And you have to understand that indoctrination, like there's, there's even a cartoon on national television called Super Vigote where Nicolas Maduro is a superhero. There's even jokes online that Super Pigote has, hasn't aired on national television since Maduro was captured, leading people to believe that he is super Bigote. So, yeah, and it's an even. History books have been changed in Venezuela to try and depict history more favorable to Chavez, his attempted coup and his role in Venezuelan democracy. So there's a small group of people in Venezuela, very small, like I mentioned, less than 10%, closer to 5%, who are indoctrinated and pro government. And then there's a larger, maybe another 10%. So a total of 15 that support the regime, but only because they're making money out of it, because they're receiving some sort of benefit from the regime. And we've already even seen this in polls among the armed forces, that 80% are against the regime, but there's, there's a good 20 of the armed forces that are making good money out of being loyal to the regime.
- [51:37]
Mike Baker
Yeah. And I think this is, this goes into my next question. That's, that's exactly right. You've got a very entrenched security apparatus with senior figures there who have financially benefited by, by staying loyal, both to Chavez and then later on to Maduro. So if you, if you get the, the election process, if that starts moving forward. I guess, again, this is not a particularly well formed question, but I'm, I'm wondering what you see from the military in terms of are we looking at.
- [52:13]
Luis Martinez
A future where you're always sort of.
- [52:15]
Mike Baker
On edge, worrying if the military is going to stage a coup because you have so many of the senior members of that organization. I assume they're not going to Just retire. They're not all going to get amnesty in a fabulous mansion in Qatar. So to what degree, what might we be looking at one of those studies where you're always concerned that the military may step in.
- [52:39]
Luis Martinez
Well, and we saw from Operation Absolute Resolve that there is very little willingness from the rank and file to pose any opposition to the United States. And any future democratically elected government would likely have some sort of, at the very least, the, the idea of a backing from the United States.
- [52:59]
Mike Baker
You do have to deal with those.
- [53:00]
Luis Martinez
200 generals that the regime has right now. Some of them might retire, some of them might be offered exile, and some of them might actually face justice for their role in the cartel of the Suns and running this narco trafficking ring through the armed forces. I would not expect there to be a fear of coups once you deal with the high echelon of the armed forces. Again, we've seen opposition leaders talk about how they have contacts with mid rank being officers in the Venezuelan armed forces and they're displeased with how the institution is being run. They're displeased with how it's become like the Praetorian Guard of the regime. And on top of that, you already have the trauma going forward of Operation Absolute Resolve. You have the trauma of knowing that there is a power in the hemisphere willing to use its, its technological tools that will completely overpower the Venezuelan armed forces if they try and disrupt any transition into democracy.
- [54:08]
Mike Baker
Exactly. But I, I would also say that, and I apologize for interrupting. The, the point being is you talk about that, but you also, you have this issue of what happens if, if it's not just the, the, the, the fact that, that the U.S. is there right on the doorstep and could step in. I think what this taught the regime leadership, they don't have an ally, you know, primarily I'm talking about Russia here that is capable of stepping in and, and helping. Right. I mean, it's, there was, I, I don't want to say that they were impotent, but it was clear that Kremlin, obviously they've got, you know, to deal with Putin's invasion of Ukraine. So they're stretched thin. But, you know, I think anybody who has considered the Russians to be sort of their protector against the evils of the West, I think they're probably reevaluating just how effective that might be.
- [55:07]
Luis Martinez
Yes, Mike, Right now actually on, on social media in Venezuela, there's a song that is trending. It's, it came out after the, the operation Absolute result In Spanish is ilocomunita. In English would be. And the communists, where are they? Because China didn't come to Maduro's help, Russia didn't come to Maduro's help, Iran didn't come to Maduro's help. Cuba was completely, their agents were completely wiped out. And for years they've described the Cuban counter intelligence agents operating Venezuela as these super spies that, you know, couldn't be penetrated, couldn't, couldn't be eliminated. And 32 of them got wiped without a single US service member being killed. I think only one of them was actually injured. And yeah, I think in your own program you covered earlier this week how the book Systems and the S3 hundreds and the Iglas, none of them worked. The Chinese radars were not even plugged into the air defense system and their allies are not doing anything about it right now. And Russia already has also the example of abandoning Bashar Al Assad. And right now Trump is threatening action against Iran and Russia seems very quiet in that front as well. So, yeah, I think that those who are adversaries to the United States operating in the Western Hemisphere are probably recalculating and learning a lesson from what Operation Absolute Resolve was and what it means for the future of US national security and its implementation through the Western Hemisphere.
- [56:47]
Mike Baker
Yeah, no, I think that's, I think that's exactly where that stands. There's a fascinating component of all of this. Right. There's so many various moving parts here, but I think that is one of those things that, that has really stood out for, for anyone who's been watching sort of the, the Russian and Chinese encroachment into Latin America over the past many years. Last question. Luis, being mindful of your time, and this is not a very good question either, but yes or no, are you optimistic about the future of Venezuela? I am optimistic.
- [57:24]
Luis Martinez
I think that it's going to be a long path to going back to the old days where Venezuela was the beacon of democracy and the most prosperous country in South America. But the first step has been taken. I think that the game, the gridlock has been broken and the gridlock for Venezuelans was you couldn't deal with a regime because they have all the means of violence and all we have is, you know, billboards and going out on the streets and protesting. But now that gridlock has been broken and the reconstruction of the country can begin and I think Venezuelans can dream again, which is something that had been our spirits for the past 25 years. So I see a bright future for Venezuela. And as I mentioned before, Mike, I think one of the most important things when you compare it to any other country post authoritarian transition is the human capital that Venezuela has. There's professionals all over Latin America, in the United States and in Europe that are ready and willing to go back to Venezuela. No one wants to leave their country and they are going to bring all that expertise to kickstart our economy.
- [58:35]
Mike Baker
Yeah, no, well said. Very well said. Well, I share your optimism and I tend to be a somewhat cynical person, so that's just saying a lot. Luis Martinez, ntdtv. Thank you very much, man. I hope you'll pick up the phone the next time we call anytime.
- [58:52]
Luis Martinez
And thank you, Mike.
- [58:53]
Mike Baker
Well, that is all the time we have for this episode of the PDB Situation Report. Right. If you have any questions or comments, well, you know what to do. You can reach me at pdb@the first tv.com now, frankly, nothing excites the PDB staff more than the weekly arrival of Carl the mailman carrying his big canvas bag stuffed full of your questions and comments. To be fair, frankly, our PDB staff does get excited about the the weekly pub quiz and darts tournament that we do. But mostly it's your comments, right? So keep your cards and letters coming to listen to the podcast of the show ad free. You can do that and it's very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and yes, I am wearing a suit. How posh. Don't get used to it. It's. It's a one off. Until next time. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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