The President's Daily Brief: Situation Report

Episode: January 17, 2026: If the U.S. Hits Iran: A Fighter Pilot Breaks It Down & Venezuela at a Crossroads
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Guests:

• Ryan Bodenheimer ("Max Afterburner"), former USAF fighter pilot
• Luis Martinez, NTD TV correspondent and Venezuela analyst
  Date: January 17, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode delivers a dual-focus deep dive into two major international hotspots: the brewing crisis in Iran and the political crossroads in Venezuela. Mike Baker leads the discussion with expert guests—USAF veteran Ryan Bodenheimer, who analyzes the risks and realities of potential US military action against Iran, and Luis Martinez, who explains the intricate dynamics of regime change and democratization in Venezuela in the wake of Maduro’s capture.

The episode’s tone is direct, pragmatic, occasionally irreverent, and rich with firsthand experience—from cockpit insights to ground-level geopolitics.

Segment 1: If the U.S. Hits Iran – A Fighter Pilot’s Perspective

(Starts at 01:12)

Key Discussion Points

• Current Situation in Iran

  • Iranian protests are showing signs of easing after weeks of violent crackdowns, but volatility remains.
  • The White House, under President Trump, is openly keeping military options "on the table." ("Help is on its way.") – [06:36]
  • Historic U.S. reluctance for overt support has shifted to a stronger posture.

• Guest Intro & Fighter Pilot Experience

  • Ryan "Max Afterburner" Bodenheimer: F-15E combat veteran, former USAF Thunderbirds pilot, now a prominent defense analyst on YouTube.
  • Discusses high-performance team dynamics and how elite unit success boils down to nailing fundamentals with relentless discipline.
    • “Teams that do the fundamentals really, really well over and over… get to the point where you can do them three feet away from another fighter jet…” – Bodenheimer [05:23]

Anatomy of a U.S. Strike on Iran

How Would an Operation Be Structured?

• Planning and Targeting

  • Mission design begins with clarifying the objective: stop protester killings, or regime change (removal of Ayatollah)?
  • “The first thing the mission commander is going to ask is, hey, what’s the objective? And you start there and then work your way back.” – Bodenheimer [09:36]

• ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance)

  • Emphasis on advanced drone surveillance (e.g., RQ170, Global Hawk) for real-time, unfiltered intelligence.
  • ISR data flows directly to command for rapid, informed decision-making.

• Entry and Execution: Layered ‘Onion’ Approach

  • Integration of multiple airframes: drones, F-35s (noted for superior sensor fusion), potentially B-2s, plus support from F-15Es and F-22s.
  • “I think of it like an onion. There’s different layers to what you would build in for the initial strikes, and different layers for what you build in for the aftermath.” – Bodenheimer [08:08]

• Air Teamwork and Data Sharing

  • F-35s are game-changers due to their ability to connect and “talk” to multiple assets, providing pilots with a detailed operational picture and real-time targeting flexibility.
  • Managing information overload is a fighter pilot’s core competency.

Iranian Air Defenses: Assessment & Risks

(Starts at 15:49)

• Integrated Air Defense System (IADS)

  • Iran’s air defenses are primarily Russian-made systems, but not impenetrable.
  • The real tactical challenge is not just surface-to-air missiles, but how to “bait” these systems to expose themselves for targeting.
  • “It’s not just SAMs… It’s basically anything they could do to try to detract your fighter jet strike package… includes the enemy’s jets too.” – Bodenheimer [16:17]

• Iranian Air Force Capability

  • Iran’s air force is described as “barely existing”—mainly old F-14s, some MiG-29s and rumored SU-30s.
  • Bodenheimer’s blunt assessment: “It’s not really going to be a competition, in my opinion, versus an F-22.” [17:13]

• International Planning and Coordination

  • U.S. operations would likely include close cooperation with Israeli, Jordanian, and other regional liaisons for robust target packages.
  • The “what happens next?” question looms large—how to avoid a Libya or Iraq post-strike chaos scenario.

Strategic Considerations: Regime Change and Power Vacuums

(Starts at 19:14)

• “The real tactical problem is what does this place look like, and who’s in charge when the Ayatollah is gone… How do you get some resemblance of leadership in there so the Iranian people can finally stand on their own two feet?” – Bodenheimer [19:14]
• Lessons from past interventions (Libya, Iraq) underscore that merely decapitating a regime can breed instability.
• Need for careful preservation or transformation of parts of the existing military to aid transition.

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• “Everybody’s got a plan till they get punched in the face. Thanks, Mike Tyson…” – Bodenheimer [08:08]
• “The Iranian Foreign Ministry reminds me of a bad ex-girlfriend who gaslighted me every other week.” – Bodenheimer [10:09]
• Max recounts calling a “max afterburner” flyby at 100 feet over insurgents threatening a trapped Navy SEAL—a moment combining tactical skill and emotional resonance.
  • “I remember looking back, seeing the crowd run away and I was like, man, I am doing exactly what I was made to be doing.” – Bodenheimer [23:06]

Segment 2: Venezuela at a Crossroads – High Stakes for Democracy

(Starts at 29:48)

Key Discussion Points

• Post-Maduro Power Dynamic

  • With Maduro captured, President Trump met with opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.
  • Trump simultaneously praises regime vice-president Delcy Rodriguez—signaling the U.S. is hedging its bets on who leads the transition ("keeping options open").
  • “Does that mean President Trump supports her political ambitions in the future? That's a big question.” – Martinez [32:58]

• Opposition’s Challenge: Remaining Relevant

  • Machado must maintain political relevance while exiled, especially as regime figures still control Venezuela’s armed and security forces.
  • “Her being outside…will she return…before any potential election? That would be very interesting to see.” – Martinez [34:49]
  • Historical precedent: opposition leaders in exile often fade from relevance.

• Regime Resilience and Transition Risks

  • Most regime figures (including defense and interior ministers) remain in place, raising concerns that only Maduro was removed—not the system of government.
  • U.S. oil quarantines and narco-trafficking crackdowns are applying "maximum pressure."

U.S. Policy & Economic Leverage

(Starts at 39:06)

• U.S. sanctions, especially on oil and drug routes ("Operation Southern Spear"), severely restrict regime cash flow.
• Delcy Rodriguez is already proposing new hydrocarbons laws to invite U.S. oil investment.
• “We’re talking about the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world… I think most U.S. oil companies will see this as something they can’t miss out on.” – Martinez [44:15]
• Martinez suggests the likely trajectory:
  • Capture or exile of hardcore regime figures (notably Diosdado Cabello)
  • Amnesty and escape deals for some in power
  • Eventual free and fair elections, even though endemic corruption will remain a problem.

Timeline for Elections and the Shape of ‘Democracy’

(Starts at 46:29)

• The constitutional process would have the VP (Delcy Rodriguez) assume interim authority for up to 180 days before elections.

• “I expect to see elections by the end of this year or early next year.” – Martinez [49:00]

• Machado must stay relevant to contest future elections, as the exiled opposition typically loses influence in Venezuelan politics.

• “Chavismo” Will Persist

  • Martinez notes 27 years of both cultural and political “Chavismo” is deeply entrenched; future governments will have to accommodate some of its legacy.

Risks of Military Coup & External Influence

(Starts at 51:37)

• The Venezuelan military's upper echelons are financially entwined with the regime; there are at least 200 generals.

• “I would not expect there to be a fear of coups once you deal with the high echelon of the armed forces. Again, we've seen opposition leaders talk about…mid-ranking officers…are displeased with how the institution is being run.” – Martinez [53:00]

• “Operation Absolute Resolve” showcased U.S. dominance and the futility of expecting help from Russia, China, Iran, or Cuba.

  • “…there's a song trending: ‘And the communists, where are they?’ Because China, Russia, Iran didn’t help Maduro… Cuba’s agents were wiped out.” – Martinez [55:06]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Martinez on regime change risks:
  “If we lived in an ideal world, you know, US Venezuelans, we'd have loved… Take Maduro out, put Machado in… But that's not how it works. The people with guns… are still the regime.” [34:49]

• On American priorities: “That's why people are criticizing Trump…he mentioned oil 20 times but didn’t mention democracy once. Well, ask Venezuelans—you don’t eat democracy.” [41:35]

• Optimism for Venezuela:
  “I see a bright future… the reconstruction of the country can begin and Venezuelans can dream again, which is something that had been absent from our spirits for 25 years.” – Martinez [57:24]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:12 – Episode theme intro; focus on Iran and Venezuela
• 03:54 – Bodenheimer introduces his background and Thunderbirds experience
• 06:36 – Shift to Iran: U.S. posture and kinetic option discussion
• 08:08 – Target package, ISR, and planning an air campaign
• 12:28 – Information management in modern air combat
• 15:47 – Assessing Iranian air defenses and overall threat analysis
• 19:14 – Strategic aftermath considerations: regime change and transition risks
• 22:20 – Bodenheimer’s most memorable combat mission
• 29:48 – Venezuela segment begins; Machado/Trump meeting analyzed
• 34:49 – Regime change complexities and risk of “reshuffling” vs. true transition
• 39:06 – Economic levers: sanctions, oil, and the U.S. strategy for pressure
• 46:29 – Election processes and democratic prospects
• 51:37 – Military coup risk and regime security apparatus analysis
• 55:06 – External influences (Russia, China, Cuba) exposed as ineffective
• 57:24 – Martinez’s closing optimism for Venezuela

Tone & Closing Observations

Throughout the episode, both Baker and his guests combine strategic clarity with personal anecdotes and a dash of gallows humor. Their conversations cut through cliches, challenging the idea that hard choices—military action, regime change, economic pressure—are ever simple or risk-free. The final sense is one of cautious optimism: neither Iran nor Venezuela’s fates are sealed, but both stand at pivotal moments where U.S. engagement—military, economic, and diplomatic—will have enduring consequences.

“Hopefully we'll have another [conversation]… I don't think the world's going to be a peaceful, stable community of nations anytime soon.” – Baker [26:21]

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

• You’ll come away understanding the real-world complexity behind U.S. military decisions, especially regarding Iran.
• You’ll get a nuanced, insider view of Venezuela’s uncertain path from autocracy to democracy, and how oil, sanctions, and global alliances shape the outcome.
• Quotes and stories from veterans and analysts provide both context and immediacy—making this episode essential listening for anyone who cares about American foreign policy in 2026.