PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters

Summary

Podcast Summary: The President's Daily Brief Episode: PDB Situation Report | January 18th, 2025: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Reached & Why Greenland Matters
Host: Mike Slater (Filling in for Mike Baker)
Guest Speakers:

• Jonathan Schanzer – Executive Director, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
• Brandon Weickert – Author and National Security Analyst, The National Interest

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1. Introduction to Major Developments

Host: Mike Slater opens the episode by highlighting two pivotal topics:

• Middle East Peace Deal: Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza, including the release of hostages.
• Arctic Strategy: President Trump's comments on Greenland underscore the strategic importance of the Arctic region amidst increasing rival activities by Russia and China.

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2. Gaza Ceasefire Deal

Overview of the Deal:

• Agreement Details: Israel and Hamas have negotiated a ceasefire that includes the phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners. Up to 33 Israeli hostages, predominantly women, elderly, sick, and children, may be freed as early as the upcoming Sunday.
• Impact: This marks the first significant pause in over a year of conflict, offering hope for humanitarian aid and the return of Palestinian civilians to northern Gaza.

Discussion with Jonathan Schanzer:

• Implementation Challenges: Schanzer emphasizes the fragile nature of the agreement, noting, “The success depends on the cooperation of both sides in this fragile moment of diplomacy for the people of Gaza and Israel” (03:30).
• Historical Context: Mike Baker draws parallels to the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange, where Israel traded over a thousand Palestinian prisoners for one Israeli soldier. He states, “This is probably the most wrong-headed Israeli policy” (08:15), highlighting concerns over setting a precedent that Hamas may exploit in future negotiations.
• Political Ramifications: The timing of the deal, just before President Trump's inauguration, introduces significant political dynamics. Baker remarks, “Trump put a huge amount of pressure on Hamas... Nobody wanted to find out” (05:56), suggesting Trump’s unpredictable approach influenced the deal’s fruition.

Host’s Insights:

• Psychological Impact on Hostages: Slater and Baker discuss the trauma faced by the released hostages, noting the overwhelming need for psychological support: “The waiting list just to get psychological therapy has been astronomical here” (17:53).
• Future of the Conflict: Baker anticipates that the ceasefire is temporary, stating, “I think they're going to go right back into that Gaza battlefield and try to finish off Hamas” (21:30).

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Baker: “We don't know exactly what was being threatened, but nobody wants to find out” (05:56).
• Jonathan Schanzer: Discusses the strategic importance and potential long-term effects of the ceasefire (03:30).

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3. Greenland and the Arctic: Strategic Imperatives

Trump’s Greenland Remarks:

• Strategic Significance: Mike Slater connects President Trump's interest in Greenland to the broader strategic imperative for the United States to assert its presence in the Arctic. He questions, “Is it too late for the US to turn things around?” (23:56).

Discussion with Brandon Weickert:

• Arctic as America's "Back Door": Weickert explains, “The Arctic is basically America's back door... We've left it relatively open and undefended” (24:23), highlighting the region’s untapped resources and strategic shipping routes.
• Russian Dominance: He details Russia’s extensive military infrastructure in the Arctic, including 18 military bases and a strategic emphasis on the Northern Sea Route. Weickert states, “The Russians are very worried... they're plotting to sneak their submarine nuclear fleet underneath the ice” (32:06).
• Chinese Involvement: Although not a claimant in the Arctic, China’s interest is driven by access to rare earth minerals and strategic shipping lanes. Weickert notes, “The Chinese have like a 90% share of the world's rare earth minerals” (38:08), emphasizing the geopolitical and economic threats posed by China’s potential Arctic ambitions.

Strategic Proposals:

• Acquisition of Greenland: Weickert advocates for the U.S. to acquire Greenland to secure rare earth minerals and establish a formidable presence in the Arctic: “This is the ultimate no brainer... It would be a massive economic boom” (33:50).
• Expansion Plans: He suggests further expansion into Canada and Iceland to solidify the U.S.’s Arctic dominance, drawing historical parallels to past territorial acquisitions (43:19).

Notable Quotes:

• Brandon Weickert: “We are no longer in the post-World War II environment... We are back to the 19th century, a multipolar order” (35:51).
• Mike Slater: “Greenland can either continue hanging out with a middling European country... or become a part of us” (33:39).

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4. Implications and Future Outlook

Geopolitical Shifts:

• The ceasefire in Gaza, while a temporary respite, does not resolve the underlying tensions and is likely to be followed by renewed conflicts as Israel aims to eliminate Hamas.
• In the Arctic, the U.S.’s delayed strategic engagement has allowed Russia and China to fortify their presence, posing significant challenges to American influence and resource control.

Strategic Recommendations:

• Immediate Action in the Arctic: Strengthening military and economic investments in the Arctic to counteract Russian and Chinese advancements.
• Long-Term Diplomatic Efforts: Engaging with Greenland’s potential independence movement to facilitate its acquisition, thereby securing vital resources and strategic advantages.

Psychological and Social Impact:

• The release of hostages from Gaza brings national attention to the psychological trauma endured by both the hostages and their families, underscoring the need for extensive mental health support systems.

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5. Conclusion

Mike Slater wraps up the episode by reiterating the critical nature of the discussed topics:

• Middle East: The ceasefire offers a glimmer of hope but signals an ongoing struggle for regional stability.
• Arctic Strategy: The U.S. must act decisively to reclaim its strategic position in the Arctic to counteract rival nations’ ambitions and secure future prosperity.

Final Remarks:

• Slater encourages listeners to stay informed and engaged with these pressing national and global issues, emphasizing their long-term implications for America’s security and influence.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Mike Baker: “We don't know exactly what was being threatened, but nobody wants to find out” (05:56).
• Jonathan Schanzer: “The success depends on the cooperation of both sides in this fragile moment of diplomacy for the people of Gaza and Israel” (03:30).
• Brandon Weickert: “We are no longer in the post-World War II environment... We are back to the 19th century, a multipolar order” (35:51).
• Mike Slater: “Greenland can either continue hanging out with a middling European country... or become a part of us” (33:39).

---

Stay Informed:
For more detailed insights and expert analyses, subscribe to pdbpremium.com and follow the President's Daily Brief on social media.

Transcript

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I'm still out in the desert. It's an amazing trek into great cause. Raising awareness for the UK Special Forces Benevolent Fund. While I'm gone, Mike Slater is stepping in to deliver the President's daily brief.

[Mike Slater]

Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Slater filling in for Mike Baker, who's currently making his way through the deserts of Saudi Arabia and Jordan on Camelback. Because why not, right? We've all done that before. It's Baker's turn. In the meantime, let's get briefed. Kicking off today's show, we got a major development from the Middle East. Israel and Hamas have struck a deal to stop the fighting in Gaza and release some hostages. Part of the agreement, Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners could be released as early as this Sunday. We'll be joined by Jonathan Schanzer from the foundation for the Defense of Democracies for all the details. Then later in the show, President Trump's recent remarks about Greenland drawing some questions about America's role in the Arctic, where rivals have been steadily expanding their footprint in the region, raising questions about our priorities and our influence and China's influence as well. Author and national security analyst at the National Interest, Brandon Weickert joins us for more on that coming up in just a few minutes. But first, today's Situation Report. Spotlight at long last, it seems Israel Hamas have reached an agreement to halt the fighting in Gaza, bringing the promise of a long awaited ceasefire just a few days before President Trump takes office. The deal includes the phased release of hostages and prisoners. Hamas expected to free 33 Israeli hostages taken during the attacks on October 7, 2023. 2023. Just want to emphasize that in exchange, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. If implemented, the agreement would provide the first meaningful pause in violence for Gaza's war weary population over a year. It also paved the way for Palestinian civilians to return to northern Gaza and significantly boost humanitarian aid into the region. While the deal offers a moment of hope, that success depends on the cooperation of both sides in this fragile moment of diplomacy for the people of Gaza and Israel, it could mark a turning point, maybe just another fleeting pause and a long conflict. For more on this, let me bring in Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who is currently in Israel as we speak. Jonathan, thank you for being here.

[Mike Baker]

My pleasure.

[Mike Slater]

Where is your head at on this Hamas deal? What do you think?

[Mike Baker]

Well, I got here on Monday and we all knew that the deal was close. They'd been circling over this for, you know, for a couple of days. I spent the last days trying to just talk to senior people here, talking to the people who've been involved in brokering this deal. First, I'll just start by saying this was a deal that was put on the table by the Israelis back in May. The, the same deal could have been accepted by Hamas, but it wasn't really. Three reasons for that. One is, you know, Israel killed Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas, last year. They also really just gave Hezbollah a shellacking, which took a lot of pressure off of Israel, put more pressure on Hamas. But I think the real game changer was the election of Donald Trump. It really, I think, changed their view of how much time they had to continue to kind of jerk everybody around and to keep this crisis going. They knew they had to get this thing done. And we're going to see that this thing is going to get implemented on Sunday, one day before Trump's inauguration. And this is going to alleviate pressure on Hamas. From the Israeli perspective, they don't love the deal because it is likely going to see the release of about 1600 Hamas and other terrorist fighters that have blood on their hands, that have been sitting in Israeli jails. They're going to be sent back out into the wild. And so there's a lot of people here in Israel who are grumpy about this, but it's going to see the release of 33 hostages, majority of whom are going to be women, elderly, sick, children. You know, these are the sorts of things that it's just been breaking the hearts of Israelis here. But the key, I think, for the Israeli negotiators was that they did not agree to end the war, not in phase One after phase two. If there is a phase two, they might agree to it. But I don't think that's where the heads of the Israeli negotiators are. I think the way they look at it is if they're able to get everybody back, I think they're going to go right back into that Gaza battlefield and try to finish off Hamas.

[Mike Slater]

We cannot skip past that third variable that you just talked about. I. In our intro here, I talked about October 7, 2023, 2023, this happened. And it cannot be a coincidence that it is just four days and ultimately say one day before the inauguration. Like, that cannot be random. That has to be the fact. A major factor, right?

[Mike Baker]

Trump came out and said, there's going to be hell to pay. And nobody knows what that means, by the way. I'm not even sure Trump knows what that means. But everybody knows one thing about Trump, he's unpredictable, right? You don't want to find out what he means. And so Trump put a huge amount of pressure on Hamas. He put actually some pressure on the Qataris. He put pressure on the Egyptians who've been brokering this deal, put pressure on the Israelis, despite the fact that he's got a good, long standing relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime minister. We don't know exactly what was being threatened, but nobody wants to find out. Nobody wants to start off on the wrong side of Donald Trump when he steps into office. So this was without question, the big game changer. Everybody all of a sudden started to jump. I got to say, as much as it says something about Trump and how much maybe the region fears him, I also have to say, where was Biden really? You know, when you think about the last 15 months, this is a president that could have said, hey, all hell's gonna break loose. We're gonna come down on you like a ton of bricks. It's not what he did. He started asking for partners in the region to please work with him. Nobody feared him, nobody wanted to go out of their way to make things happen for him. And so he had to limp along for the last 15 months. I think this is just a real indictment of Biden policy in the Middle East. And I think the entire region right now is looking toward Trump with some optimism, thinking that he just might be a guy that bares his teeth at Iran and actually backs that up. Because as everybody knows, Iran is the primary patron of Hamas. There are the people who are behind the Houthi attacks, these ballistic missile attacks, and the harassment of American ships and the killing of American servicemen. It's the Iranians at the end of the day that I think are really worried. And all of those countries in the Middle east that hate Iran, that's Saudi, that's Israel, that's the uae, it's all of the allies of the United States, they are cheering on the arrival of Donald Trump.

[Mike Slater]

And wow, that's all the case study you would ever need is what's happening right now in real time. Okay, so I, at first glance, I don't love the deal, right. Like if you just look at it, if you don't really know the players involved or whatever, right. You're like 33 to what, how many Palestinian fighters? Like what are we supposed to learn from that?

[Mike Baker]

Well, look back in, I think it was 2011, maybe it was 2010. The Israelis made a deal for one guy, a guy by the name of Gilad Shalit. He was an Israeli army corporal and he was kidnapped along the Gaza border. And the Israelis ultimately traded a thousand prisoners for him, including by the way, Yahya Sinwar, the guy that ultimately hatched the plot of 10 7, the guy that ran the war until he was killed by Israel a couple of months ago in the Gaza Strip. This is now what Hamas knows it will get. It is, I think probably the most wrong headed Israeli policy. And I generally think that the Israelis know what they're doing. They're a top notch military, they've got incredible intelligence. But as negotiators, my lord, when you start to set a precedent like that, you know, 15 years ago, of course they're going to try to do it again. And Hamas knew it. And so there's going to be a celebration. Right now we don't know. I think right now the number is 1600. At least that's what we've heard so far with the, you know, open press reports, there are going to be some of these guys that go back to the west bank, some that go to the Gaza Strip, and I think some of the more nasty types that they don't want to have anywhere near Israel, they're going to send them to Qatar and Turkey who are major patrons of Hamas. It's not going to play well. You're going to have a resurgence of Hamas for at least these 42 days. The Israelis know it. But I will tell you that the way that the Israeli public, their hearts have been breaking for these hostages and you know, talking about a baby was kidnapped, young women who were kidnapped and almost certainly raped repeatedly, the sexual crimes that have been committed against these women, the People here, I mean, they, they hold vigils constantly. The news is filled with stories of the hostages and the hostage families. This is going to be important to make this country here in Israel. It's going to be important to make them whole again. So they're willing to do it. They're going to get back as many hostages as they can. And then my sense again though is that even, you know, after all of this is said and done, they're going to get back into Gaza and they're going to keep fighting until they get a surrender from Hamas. So from their perspective, look, the optics are not great. Hamas is going to celebrate. It's going to be a shot in the arm for them for a period of time for these 42 days. But Israel, as I hear it, anyway, here they're saying we are not going to let them live. So let them celebrate all they want. It's not going to last long.

[Mike Slater]

Okay, let's talk. We got a quick break if you don't mind. Jonathan, you can stick around. I want to talk more about that. We just said. I want to talk about this corridor. There's two in particular if I understand right. One was right along the border with, with guys in Egypt. I want to talk about that. And then this phase two that you're speaking of as well. So we can chat more about that with Jonathan Shanza right here on the President's Daily Brief.

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[Mike Slater]

Welcome back to the president's Daily Brief Situation Report. I'm Mike Slater filling in for Mike Baker. We're talking about the Hamas peace deal with Jonathan Schanzer, who's in Israel right now. Jonathan, what's the right word for it? Like is Hamas peace deal? That's not the right word. What are they calling Israel?

[Mike Baker]

Ceasefire, you know, or you can even call the hostage deal a prisoner swap. You know, you can call it whatever you want. But I mean, I think ceasefire is probably 42 day. Ceasefire is probably the most accurate way of describing it.

[Mike Slater]

You mentioned that 42 days, what does that mean?

[Mike Baker]

That's the time that they're not going to release all 33 hostages all at once. Hamas doesn't want to do that. So what they're going to do is, I mean, the first tranche of hostages are going to come on Sunday, according to the reports that I've seen. And then they'll probably wait a couple of days and then they'll release two or three more and then they'll wait a couple of days after that. This is going to be the way that Hamas ensures that the group gets an opportunity to get back, you know, off of its knees, onto its feet, try to reorganize their ability to fight. These are the sorts of things that I expect Hamas to do when they ask for these 42 days because they need the room to breathe. The Israelis had cut off all of the pipeline of their weapons. They've been just mowing down the fighters on the battlefield. So Hamas needs to figure out what its new game plan is. Israel has agreed to let them try. And this is what's so counterintuitive. Everyone knows that Hamas is going to try to take these 42 days to get stronger, to be able to fight Israel with new strategies and new tactics, the Israelis are confident enough in their military and their intelligence and the tactics and strategies that they have that they are okay with that if they get back 33 souls that have been held in Hamas custody in really grueling conditions.

[Mike Slater]

So 33 is the number. Now, you mentioned women, children, elderly, sick. How many hostages are there total? And what are we hearing about phase two?

[Mike Baker]

The numbers are as follows. So far there. Well, okay, right now there's 98 hostages still in Hamas custody. Unclear how many of them are alive, how many of them are dead. We just don't know. I'm not even sure that Hamas knows. You're going to get back out of those 98. You're going to get back 33. If the Israelis go to a second round, phase two, then there could be more. But the people there that would be released would be men of fighting age. So, you know, between, let's say 17 or 18 and, you know, up to, let's say 40 or 50, even 50 years old. And. But I don't expect there to be a phase two. I think the Israelis are not likely to want to go back that long and to allow Hamas to regroup for any longer than they'll get in this first round. You know, I think there is a sense here whether it's right or wrong. You know, I'll let viewers decide. But I think in their view, the men of fighting age, you know, the people that have been conscripted into the Israeli military, these are people that knew what they were getting into. Many of them were wearing uniforms on October 7th. Israel, I think, is, I don't want to say is willing to sacrifice them, but understands that this is the cost, right, that you lose soldiers in battle. And I don't think they're going to want to make deals. They may try, but I think it seems unlikely from what I'm picking up. But in the end, when you look at the deal that happened after 10, seven, right, where there were 80 plus hostages that were released in the first round, and the Israelis were able to. They were able to recoup a number of them, I think, I think in the end more than a dozen or so through operations where they saved individual hostages from tunnels or from apartments where they were being held by Hamas operatives, then you add to that the next round of 33. What I understand right now is that we could see out of the original 254 hostages that were taken that day, you're likely to see in the end maybe about 130, 140. Maximum 150 returned alive. Many of the ones that are dead were dead on October 7th. And I don't know how to do the math here, but I think the Israelis believe that with the deal that they're making, they're going to get back upwards of 140, 150 people alive. And I don't think anyone in this country thought from the original 254 that they would get back these numbers. So I think they're pretty happy with the total number of people they're getting back. It did take a really long time, though. And you have to wonder what kind of suffering some of these people have endured over the year and three months that they've been held in captivity.

[Mike Slater]

Well, the ones that have made it back alive, how are they doing? I imagine you don't just, like, take a shower and get back into things.

[Mike Baker]

No, look, you know, some, some are doing better than others. I think all of them are having trauma. All of them are having survivor guilt for getting out, while others, you know, stayed in for having lived when others died. And, you know, by the way, all these people and their parents and their brothers and their sisters and their cousins, they've all become public figures in this country. They've become political figures almost overnight where people want to hear their thoughts. It's, it's, it's become a very public thing. I mean, I cannot overstate the way in which the hostages have become front and center and have stayed there for the entire war. Right. We've been watching all the ups and downs of this war. There's been a front in Lebanon, There's a front in Yemen. Syria collapses. As a, as an analyst of the Middle east like me, I'm watching all of these things and just, you know, it's jaw dropping, the sheer amount of activity, military activity, political geopolitical activity here, the focus has been on these people. And so there will be a huge focus on whoever gets let out. They will have interviews nonstop. They will be celebrated. But then there'll be what happens quietly behind closed doors, that kind of PTSD and the psychological trauma that they're going to have to contend with. This is not easy stuff. You know, there. I heard from somebody here recently that for the people who fought on 10 7, the people who were captured on 1010 7, the, the, the waiting list just to get psychological therapy has been astronomical here. It's just there's not enough social workers in this country to handle the workload, the trauma. And by the way, that doesn't even include the, you Know, the, the soldiers who were injured or were fought in, were fighting in Gaza or in Lebanon. The families of the soldiers who were holding their breath, waiting for their loved ones to come home. This is a country that is enduring a trauma that, you know, I think, you know, we haven't seen in this region in decades. And, you know, it's going to take some serious healing here. But I do think that getting those 33 back will go a long way to start to make this country whole again.

[Mike Slater]

It's not just over. As soon as they come back to the right side of the border, got about two minutes. What are the security controls that Israel will remain and have in Gaza even as this deal is going on or beyond?

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, they're going to keep that border that you mentioned, the Philadelphia corridor, that's the, the area along the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt. They're going to keep that. They're not going to have as many forces there, but they're going to keep this area. That's going to prevent smuggling coming in from Egypt, which I think this is a country that's played a really nasty double game, negotiating the release, trying to be a honest broker, while also having presided over these tunnels. It's, it's dirty stuff, and I think Egypt needs to be held to account. There's another area called Nitzarim Carter, about 2/3 of the way up Gaza. The Israelis are going to be pulling out most of their forces there as well, but they'll be able to get back into it. It's semi permanent structures now that the Israelis have created. And in the meantime, the Israelis are going to maintain security forces all around the border of the Gaza Strip, again with the expectation that at some point they will very likely need to go back into battle.

[Mike Slater]

Yeah. So just to be clear, about a minute left. You don't, you don't think this is the end of the war? There's, there's more to come from Israel side.

[Mike Baker]

Look, I don't think they'll go to phase two. I think right now, phase one does not demand that Israel stop the war entirely. Phase one demands that Israel pauses in order to execute this trait. Right. For the Hamas prisoners, for these hostages. When that's done, that's when I suspect the Israelis are going to have a plan for the complete elimination of Hamas. They've been very careful up until now. They've not wanted to really. I mean, you know, you hear all sorts of things about how this war is going. Israeli's been fighting much more carefully than you'd think is they don't want to kill their own hostages. So they've been really careful. You get the vast majority of them out, I think it changes the game for the Israelis. I think they've been waiting for a moment to be able to do this in, in a way that I think matches some of their war plans. And so I, I think it's just me talking here. I think they're going to go on the offensive after round one.

[Mike Slater]

Maybe there will still be hell to pay, as Trump said. Jonathan Schanzer, what is your organization? How can people help them and follow you?

[Mike Baker]

Sure. We're foundation for Defense of Democracies. Fdd. You can find us on X ACTD and you can find me on X at J. Schanzer, J S C H A N Z E R Jonathan, thank.

[Mike Slater]

You for being here. Thank you for taking time in the midst of all this in Israel. Super grateful for your insight. Thank you very much. Coming up next, Brandon Weickert will talk about how we absolutely need Greenland. That's next right here on the President's Daily Brief Situation report. Welcome back to the PDB Situation report. I'm Mike Slater, filling in for Mike Baker. I want to turn our attention to the Arctic, a region that's becoming a key battleground for global influence. While President Trump's comments about buying Greenland grabbed headlines, they also highlight a pressing issue. It's America's diminishing presence in the Arctic. Rivals like Russia and China are expanding their reach, capitalizing on Washington years of neglect. It's a crucial area rich in resources, strategic value. But is it too late for the US to turn things around? Joining us to break this down is our friend Brandon Weikart, author and national security analyst at the National Interest. Brandon, how you doing, brother?

[Ryan]

I'm very good. Thanks for having me back.

[Mike Slater]

Great to talk to you. I love this story of Greenland and the Panama Canal because when it first came out, everyone laughed, thought ridiculous it was. And the more you learn about it, the more you're like, well, like, obviously, like, how do we not, how's it not already done? Like, we need to do this. So let's focus on Greenland here. Why is it important that we control Greenland?

[Ryan]

Well, the Arctic is basically America's back door. And for about 30 years, at least, since the end of the Cold War, we've left it relatively open and undefended. And for a period of time, that was okay. But now we're living in the age of the return of empires, the multipolar world order in which both Russia and China are operating together to try to damage America's standing in the world that threaten us, not just abroad, but closer to home. And one of the areas that Russia in particular has pointed out for, you know, to become a. An area of Russian dominance is the Arctic. Greenland is a strategic location. It's sort of the linchpin for the whole region, and it's basically sitting open. And Denmark owns it, technically, although there's some debate even about that, but they're not really doing anything with it. And there's maybe 56,000 people living there. It's this massive landmass, and by the way, it's chock full of minable rare earth minerals. Denmark doesn't have the ability to mine for them. They turned to China during Trump's first term to try to get them to do it. And of course, that's what prompted Trump initially to say, we don't. We got to get Greenland. And he's continuing with that strategy because he knows the Chinese. And now the Russians aren't stopping.

[Mike Slater]

Correct me if I'm wrong, please. Probably am. 18 military bases in northern Russia in the Arctic region. Why do they have that?

[Ryan]

So it all goes down to minable rare earth minerals and oil and natural gas. All of that is. Some of the world's largest untapped reserves are in the Arctic. Russia has like an 1100 kilometer shoreline with the Arctic. In 2007, I don't. Many people don't know this, but the Russians sent a submarine to the North Pole and planted a flag underwater in the North Pole. The indication was. Or the symbol was, we're taking it. A year later, the Russians announced in their national strategy memo that the Arctic was becoming a Russian enclave, that it was actually more important to Moscow than even Ukraine, or at the time, Georgia was. So that shows you why they've been revitalizing those old Soviet naval bases in the Arctic. They're also because of whatever's going on with the climate up there. There are these new waterways opening up. The Russians are building the world's largest icebreaker fleet to move the ice out of the way to build the Northern sea route, which Russia says is going to become an alternative to the Suez Canal. So there's a lot of economic military opportunities there. And the Russians have about a 10 to 12 year start on us and in developing the Arctic.

[Mike Slater]

Whoa. Okay. All right. Before we get to China, I got some questions. So they. So I'm. We put the flag on the moon. They put their flag underneath the North Pole via submarine.

[Ryan]

Yeah, yeah. Yeah, and they were clearly. That was not just a little PR stunt at the time. BBC and these other Western media sources sort of downplayed it. It was like a little cutesy thing that the Russians did. But everybody, I mean, I knew what it was they were telling us. They were telegraphing what they're planning to do. And like I said, a year after that, that's when Moscow issued their National Strategy memo, in which they said by 2020, they planned to basically control over half of the Arctic, which they did by 2020. And now there's a new round of national strategy documents being released by Moscow which clearly indicate that not only are they going to expand upon that dominance, they're going to bring the Chinese with them. And so now we've got the Chinese crawling around in our backyard.

[Mike Slater]

The icebreakers you mentioned, what are those? And the shipping lanes that could continue to be open or widened. Do you know what the benefit of those is? Because I know we've talked a lot about the Panama Canal recently and how that saved 22 days of going along the southern tip of South Africa, South America. So we're getting some, like, I can like, visualize, like, okay, we're saving 22 days. Got it.

[Ryan]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Mike Slater]

What are we saving or what? Whoever controls those, what would they be saving with?

[Ryan]

So, like, they. Yeah, like, that's a great question. The Russians have the northern sea route, of course, America and Canada are sitting on the Northwest Passage, the famous Northwest Passage. We can't use it because the United States and Canada are in a territorial dispute over who controls it, which is ridiculous. And by the way, this is why Trump's. Another reason he's talking about absorbing Canada is to settle that dispute in our favor. But the Russians, with their northern sea route, they're using nuclear powered icebreakers. They have, I think, seven of them or eight of them. We have two very old non nuclear icebreakers. We're having trouble building new icebreakers. So the Russians have a lead on us. They use those icebreakers to basically create paths in the ice for ships to follow through, either civilian container ships or military vessel surface warships. And now the thing with, with this route is it basically connects Vladivostok, which is Russia's farthest port city on the Pacific Ocean, all the way up to the Baltic Sea of Northern Europe. And so basically, this is being billed as a safer, easier route for ships to use. It's actually shorter for ships transiting through the Suez Canal, rather using the Suez Canal, which, as we remember, two or three years ago, there was these Huge jams in the. There was a ship that got stuck in the Suez Canal. There's all the instability of the Middle east that we always have to worry about that could blockade Suez Canal transit routes. So this is bypassing the instability of the Middle east, basically, by getting in international shipping to go through Russia's backyard, which, of course, will give them a lot of advantages.

[Mike Slater]

Wow, that's amazing. Okay, I. Correct me if I'm wrong, but we have a space base in Greenland.

[Ryan]

Yeah, we have a space force facility in Greenland. It's a monitoring and tracking facility. Officially, there might be more going on there than meets the eye in terms of surveillance and whatnot. But, yes, that is, we used to, in the Cold War, have basically an entire network of facilities and tracking stations in Greenland, throughout, going to Iceland, throughout Canada, that we maintained that was part of our national defense for tracking incoming Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles. Today, we don't have those capabilities the way we used to. We mothballed them at the end of the Cold War. I was speaking actually yesterday with a Russian in Russia. I was communicating with them over zoom. And one of the things he said is the Russians are very worried about what Trump is saying, because not only could that allow for the Americans to possess the rare earth minerals of Greenland and have real capabilities to compete with Russia economically for control over these trade routes up there, but more importantly, the Russian submarine force, which is probably their best naval asset, their submarines, they plan, if a war breaks out between the United States and Russia, they plan to basically sneak their submarine nuclear submarine fleet underneath the ice of the Arctic, which is poorly defended, and to launch nuclear strikes on American east coast cities by transiting through the Arctic, which we are not defending against. And so they're worried that we're going to plug that gap under Trump, and I think we will.

[Mike Slater]

Last question on this. We'll take a break and we'll pivot to China. What is holding up the possibility of this happening? I'm thinking back to 2015, when Trump said he's going to run for president. Everyone laughed, and they laughed and laughed until he won hesitancy. And now he's back again. People are laughing right now, but what's holding this up, actually, of us taking.

[Ryan]

Over our Greenland personally, I think it's already a done deal. I think it's just a question of officially recognizing it. It looks like the Greenlanders are already going to be pushing for independence from Denmark. If anybody remembers the absorption of Texas and California into the United states in the 19th century, both of those entities were Once part of Mexico, they declared independence. They existed for a period of time as independent republics and that made it easier for them to be ultimately absorbed into the United States. Something similar, I suspect, is happening. The bottom line is Denmark cannot develop Greenland or provide for the Greenlanders the kind of possible opportunities, economic opportunities that the United States could with all of the development programs we want to do in terms of building sort of mining operations there and sort of creating a really an entire industry of mining rare earth minerals, oil and natural gas up there that will bring all kinds of prosperity to that region.

[Mike Slater]

Totally. I mean Greenland can, can either continue hanging out with a middling European country with a GDP the size of Colorado or become a part of our, our.

[Ryan]

And it would be, it would be a massive state. It would become a massive economic boom not only for Greenland, but it would increase our GDP as well as a nation.

[Mike Slater]

Okay, has to happen. Brandon Weickert, he's author and national security analyst at the National Interest. Take a quick break and we'll talk about China. Right. I didn't even think Russia was the biggest problem here. But leave it to Brandon to know the truth here. But we'll talk about Russia or excuse me, China and their role in the Arctic as well. I'm Mike Slater filling for Mike Baker on the President's Daily Brief. Welcome back to the President's Daily Brief Situation Report. I'm Mike Slater filling in for Mike Baker. We're talking to our friend Brandon Weickert, author, national security analyst at the National Interest. We're talking about Greenland. How this has to happen. This is like the ultimate no brainer. Real quick, Brian, before we get to China and they're are, are contesting against them. What do you make of there's like, like this, we're told that it's like immoral. Like the maps after World War II cannot change. You cannot move at all. Like not they are, these are the countries and these are the maps. And any type of expansion is imperialistic or empire building and immoral and wrong. We make of that.

[Ryan]

I am the worst person to talk to about this because I'm a fundamentally an offensive realist and I do not believe morals should ever enter into the equation when we're talking about the affairs of nations in the international order. It's a game of power and the ability to basically defend yourself while keeping your enemies on the back foot. We are no longer in fact in the post World War II environment that you're talking about where there was a rules based order. We are back to the 19th century, a multipolar order, specifically a tripolar order, in which there will be spheres of interest and it will be a question of which power has relative greater power over the others. The three powers today, the United States, Russia and China, all of us. All of us, and we're a little late to the game in the United States, are doing this in our respective spheres of influence. Russia and Ukraine, China with Taiwan in the South China Sea. This is just the nature of the beast, and we'd all better get used to it and start playing the game better than they do.

[Mike Slater]

So there are five countries that claim control over the Arctic Ocean. We got Russia, America via Alaska, Canada, Denmark via Greenway Greenland, and then Norway. Those are the five. Where's China in on the ma? They're not. They're not anywhere near this. What's their role here?

[Ryan]

Of course, they've come up with a BS Laden term that's never existed before, calling themselves a quote, near Arctic power. And that is sort of their attempt to muscle in on the great game that's going on for all those massively lucrative resources in the Arctic and all the. They want access to the trading routes up there that are being created. And so my personal opinion is if Beijing were smart, and they won't do it because it's very complicated legally, but if they were smart, they could possibly make a claim on the South Pole and Antarctica, but they really cannot make the claim on the Arctic. There is no shoreline that they share. There is no ocean that they share with the Arctic. That is not their area, but they're going to. What's going to happen is the closer that Russia and China become over the Ukraine war, the more likely that Russia will bring the Chinese with them. And it's already starting. And that's where the complications are going to arise for the United States.

[Mike Slater]

What is in the interest of Russia for bringing China alongside them?

[Ryan]

Well, Russia is. They're a strong power. And, you know, a lot of the Western, A lot of the Western media gets Russia wrong. At the same time, though, they're not the strongest of the three great powers. The United States is still the top dog. The Chinese are second and the Russians are third. And so by basically pairing Russian military strength in the Arctic with the economics and science of China, you have a really unstoppable force. China's the second largest economy, gdp, so they're a real competitor with the United States. And so Russia brings them along. It's like a double whammy for the Americans.

[Mike Slater]

Okay, what is the threat that China brings to us if they were to have greater control over that Arctic region.

[Ryan]

Well, the first point, the first part, always with China, is the geo economic, even more so than the geopolitical threat. So basically we talked earlier, they tried to basically angle in on those rare earth minerals in Greenland. They almost got them in Trump's first term. That's what prompted him to basically become obsessed with Greenland. They're trying to do that again, the Chinese are. And they're trying to do that not just in Greenland, but in parts where the Russians control as well. They're working with the Russians, creating partnerships and whatnot. And so that's the biggest problem is the Chinese have like a 90% share of the world's rare earth minerals. Those are essential for building any kind of technology that was designed after 1970. Basically, laptops, phones, everything require rare earths. The Chinese already control almost 90%. The worst thing for the United States would be to allow them to get a complete monopoly on those things. By getting Greenland before China does, we basically ensure that we're getting our own source of rare earth minerals.

[Mike Slater]

So we have a silly media. I think that's pretty. Actually, they laugh at this idea. Are serious people on board with what we're talking about right here?

[Ryan]

Yeah, well, I mean, I am considered a fairly serious person, except on X, where I tend to make really inopportune jokes. But other than that, I am a serious person and I'm fully on board. In fact, this is the basis of my next book. I've been working on it for three years, the Race for the Arctic. And multiple people I've spoken to for the book, Real policy people, heavy hitters, military people, retired and current, are very serious about this. And this is conversations that have been had even before Trump was in office the first time. So this is, I mean, remember, we tried to buy Greenland at least two other times in our nation's history. William Seward, the guy who bought Alaska under Lincoln, was the last guy to try to do this. So this is. And actually take it back. No, Harry Truman. Harry Truman was the last guy after World War II, we tried to do that. It was Seward and under Lincoln and then Truman. So this is not new. This is, you know, our media is just, as you say, silly. And they also. It's the same kind of reaction they had to when Trump said he was running for president the first time. You were right when you said that. The same thing with Greenland. And they're going to be proven wrong again in the media, just like they were with Trump's presidency.

[Mike Slater]

Yeah. Little fun, little trivia point, too that I learned the other day that we bought the Virgin Islands from Denmark. So we have business history going back with Denmark as well. And I might understand it. Correct me if I'm wrong, and we'll chat another day about the Panama Canal in greater detail. But the reason why Wilson wanted to get the US Virgin Islands, which was the Danish west indies at the time, 1917, was because of its strategic location next to the Panama Canal. So, like, like this Western Hemisphere lockdown is, is very important. But like, I don't. We don't think this way, but like, we need to start thinking this way again. Right? Like, what is the Western Hemisphere?

[Ryan]

Well, it's basically, if you don't control. And look, just look at what China's doing in the South China Sea and the Indo Pacific. Look what Russia is trying to do in Eastern Europe, specifically with Ukraine. If you don't control the areas nearest to your country, there's no possible way you can project power reliably outside of that area. And you will always be threatened by rival powers who will move into those areas. And right now we have significant gaps geopolitically in our hemisphere, and we need to plug them because we're entering the new age of empires. And if we don't secure our sphere the way China and Russia are securing theirs, they will eat our lunch here and then we will be surrounded the way that the Americans surrounded the Soviet Union in the Cold War.

[Mike Slater]

You mentioned Antarctica on the, the bottom right. What's going on there? What's the benefit of that one?

[Ryan]

Just like the Arctic, there's a bevy of untapped natural resources. We, the Chinese have built up. Yes, yes. The Chinese have built a bunch of satellite stations there. There's a lot of stuff going on in the South Pole. In fact, I would argue maybe even more than what's going on in the North Pole. The thing with, with Antarctica is there is technically an international treaty that is governing the use and development of Antarctica that regulates how many people can come from each country, that regulates what exactly countries that have research stations there can do. It's predominantly supposed to be used for scientific research purposes only, but that's why it's. So it's, there's not, it's not a lot going on there in terms of people going back and forth the way that there is in the Arctic, because it's heavily regulated. But I argue, just as with space, the treaties governing Antarctica are going to evaporate in the new age of empires. And Whoever gets there first will have a lot of resources at their disposal. Wow.

[Mike Slater]

Antarctica. That's crazy. I never, never think about that, obviously. Okay, give me one more country. So I heard this line the other day. Let me know if you think this is right or help me workshop this. It's something like healthy countries expand or think about expanding or something. So help me workshop that. And if that's true or something like that is true, what's next? Where else should we be looking at? Brandon Weicker?

[Ryan]

That's a great question. I would say it's not even a question of expanding for us. It's a question of just fulfilling what was begun by our founding fathers. If you look back at our history, yeah, we started out as a collection of 13 colonies that became states. But one of the reasons we went to war with Britain in the first place, for the revolution, wasn't just because of no taxation without representation. It was because they weren't letting us go beyond the Appalachians and we wanted to keep expanding. So it's just sort of a completion of a natural flow that's been going on. Where we should go next, after we get Greenland, we should seriously talk about Canada. If not the whole country of Canada, then Alberta and Saskatchewan, and we need to be talking about Iceland as well in terms of the northern. And then obviously Panama Canal Zone is another one we need.

[Mike Slater]

Brandon Weicker, what's the name of the book? I'm coming.

[Ryan]

The newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making, how the West Lost Ukraine. It's available now wherever books are sold. And what's your Twitter for everyone at we the Brandon.

[Mike Slater]

Beautiful. Brandon, great to talk to you, man. We'll do it again soon.

[Ryan]

Nice to see you.

[Mike Slater]

Good stuff there. Good stuff. Get fired up. Ready to go. On my radio show today, we played in light of the Pete Hegseth confirmation hearing. We played a lot of the Top Gun anthem. Just got me fired up talking to Brandon. We fired up as well. That's all we have for the PDB Situation Report. As always, you can email me and the PDB team and Baker, of course, although he probably doesn't have great cell reception on top of the camel in the Middle East. But you still email [e-mail] the podcast of this show ad free if you'd like it. You can be a premium member at the President's Daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com Mike Slater filling in for Mike Baker. Until next time, stay safe. Spread the word.