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PDB Situation Report | January 3rd, 2026: Iran’s Streets Erupt & What Comes Next for Israel
01:02:09
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- [00:13]
A
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report, our very first episode of 2026. Happy New Year. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ear is on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, anger is spilling into the streets of Tehran and and several people are dead as protests sweep the nation, turning economic despair into open defiance of Iran's clerical regime and the irgc. Shirin Naraman, a human rights advocate and a former political prisoner in Iran with a fascinating backstory, joins us to share that story and offer insight into the situation on the ground. Later in the show, Israel closes out a turbulent 2025 marked by war in Gaza and open conflict with Iran. With big questions looming about what comes next, not just for Israel and Gaza, but for basically the entire Middle East. We'll be joined by former UK Ambassador to Yemen, Edmund Fitton Brown for a look ahead. But first, today's Situation Report. Spotlight. Pressure inside Iran is building fast with anger spilling into the streets of Tehran. Protests have surged through the city's historic bazaar districts where merchants have shut down shops and launched multi day strikes. Now, what started as outrage over a collapsing economy, soaring inflation, a plunging currency and rising unemployment has turned into something far bigger. Chants calling for the end of the clerical regime are now ringing out, reflecting years of pent up frustration over repression, corruption, mismanagement and abuse. As unrest grows at home, the regime is lashing out abroad, issuing increasingly extreme threats. It's a sign not of strength, of course, but but of fear when Iran's merchants, workers and students all move together. History suggests that momentum could build quickly. For more on this, we'll turn to Shirin Naraman, a human rights advocate and former political prisoner in Iran. Shirin, thank you very much for joining us here on the PDB Situation report.
- [02:12]
B
Thank you. Good morning and thank you so much for having me at your program.
- [02:16]
A
Oh, absolutely. I think it would be very helpful for all our viewers if you could give us a bit of your background as we go on and talk about the current situation in Iran. I think understanding what you've gone through I think could be very beneficial.
- [02:33]
B
Of course. So during the revolution against the monarchies, I was a teenager and very quickly I became involved. I love the idea of being democrat, that there would be a democracy and freedom in Iran. I became a supporter of Mojaheddin Khal Mek and very soon, unfortunately, when I was just a teenager, I was arrested and I was in prison almost a year and a half after the revolution. And unfortunately, I learned to grow up very quickly because not only I went through severe tortures, but also I witnessed so many young and old, from 13 year old to mothers being arrested, tortured and executed. Back then they used firing squads. So they would take every afternoon, they would call names, a list of names, and they would take them right behind the walls and execute them. And we used to count the coup de grace just to know how many people were executed that day and that night. So you can imagine the agony that we went through. And at that time, when I said goodbyes to so many of my friends and cellmates, I promised myself that if I have the opportunity, I would continue their work and I would never be silent and I would fight for a free Democratic Republic of Iran. I landed in America as a refugee. I had to work very hard, going to school, building a life. And now I have two girls and I really want to see Iran is free and especially young women have the same rights that our women and my girls have here. So I continue my activism and my advocacy for free, non nuclear Republic of Iran.
- [04:31]
A
What was that like? I mean, that must have been. Well, I can't even describe what it must have been like because not being there, and it's not fair of me, but at that moment when you're a young person and you've got this hope for democracy and so you think this is great, this is a wonderful direction for the country, and then you're detained and you end up in prison. Can you explain what that felt like?
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C
Well.
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B
I take a pride because at the time that everybody thought Khomeini the first revolutionary, you know, the first man that stole the revolution from Iran. He was popular, you know, he was very strong and had a lot of controls. But I take pride that we saw who he was and we stood up against him. And it was hard, it was not an easy thing, but we knew each of us, even those people that were taken for executions, they would turn back and tell us, don't forget me, including my own cousin. I lost my cousin. Don't forget what I stood up for and keep fighting for a free, democratic Iran. So it was hard. Yes, it was very hard. But I feel, I take a pride of knowing those people who went for executions, knowing the mothers that they lost their lives because they were not willing to give any name or location of their children. They stood up. The 13 year old, the friend that I had, Zara, and I only know her name is Zara, I don't know anything else. But she was executed because of her brothers and her mother. So you know, all these people, they all Stay in me, in my heart, in my brain, in my soul. And they have become the element of not giving up hope and keep fighting, keep fighting. So until we can have like you guys, everyone in here in the world to enjoy democracy.
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A
And now, how would you describe yourself based on what you're seeing currently in Iran in terms of the street protests that seem to be growing even as we talk?
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B
Well, today is the sixth day and we are seeing the widest spread of the protest. We see people are out there, something that started because of the inflation of, you know, money and also the rise of the dollar, which means that every day that the dollar goes up to convert to Iranian money, which is tuman, the cost of living becomes unbearable. You know, people, even middle class is not able to have enough food on their table. So these are the reality and I'm very hopeful. I think we have come a long way. Yes, it took a long time, but fighting tyrannies always is hard, especially when you see that maybe some of the political governments are not in favor or not supportive of the changes. But now we knew always our resistance always said that Iran is a ticking bomb and is going to explode any minute. And now it's happening. So now we know nobody could guess when it's going to happen, but now it's happening. So I think this time as what I'm seeing every day is spreading and people are angry and also they are ready for the change. I think the most important thing is that the world to recognize the fight of Iranian people and they recognize the right of self defense for Iranian people. As we are getting closer to the fall of this regime.
- [08:55]
A
Sure. A couple of years being held in prison by the Islamic Republic and then you, you are able to get to the US as a refugee. You, you build a life, you build a family, you continue your activism. Over that period of time, you've seen sporadic protests, you've seen different situations that have created moments in time, right. Of protest. But they, they always seem to fizzle out. Are you worried that this current situation may follow that same cycle?
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B
Well, I think yes, it has happened many times, but each time we have made a significant.
- [09:47]
C
Job.
- [09:48]
B
So there was a time, I don't know if you remember, years ago, they were talking about, oh, and the policy was changed from within. So each time it was diverted by the regime and unfortunately by some sympathizer outside of Iran and saying that the change has to come from the within. But now we don't see that because everybody, even people are a lot more, you know, aware and they are standing against it. For instance, Iranian regime always suppress. So one leg of it is just always kill. And we are seeing it that, you know, so far I think about eight people have been killed, killed in different cities in Iran so far in past few days. And also Iran uses its own agent to divert the attention by suddenly shouting in favor of monarchy, the son of the ex Shah. Just to divert and bring division between people. But people in Iran are so aware that they are immediately standing up to it. And we can hear it in all the videos that is coming in because they recognize that the IRGC personnel are leading this kind of slogan. So they are standing up. So I think people are far more aware. And also I think we now do have resistance movements in Iran. We have a lot of resistance themselves that they are working hard. And I was during the revolution, I remember that just knowing one of the people that you know were as members of the organizations, how they really rallied right behind it. And I can see it again that here right now, people look at who's next to them that they are chanting, you know, or they are fighting to defend themselves. When IRGC or Basij are attacking them, they are fighting them. So people are learning that, okay, who can they trust and who can align with. And that's what we are seeing. That's why I'm very, very hopeful. And I think it's important to at this time especially recognize the true opposition and the true leader. National Council of Resistance has been around for over 40 years. They have a solid plan. They have a president elect, Madam Maryam Rajavi, who has a 10 point plan, who has a vision. And also thousands of men and women are working voluntarily outside of Iran. And we have thousands and thousands of supporters inside of Iran who are fighting. So I think all the elements that we need is there and the change is really we can reach it. And it's a very hopeful moment that we are living right now.
- [13:20]
A
Okay, no, that is fascinating. I've got so many questions for you, Sharon, but if you could stay right where you are. We do have to take a quick break and I apologize for that. But we'll be back just in a moment with more of the PDB situation report. So please stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, as we move into the new year, many of us of course are looking to build more intentional lives. You know what I'm talking about? Live deliberately and better aligned with our purpose and our values. That's why I want to tell you about Glorify. It's the number one Christian daily devotional app and Glorifai can help you lead a more intentional life. Now They've got a 21 day challenge that helps build that simple but powerful habit of seeking wisdom and guidance every day. You can start your morning with a Bible passage, a daily devotional or an immersive daily walk with God. In the middle of a busy day, you can listen to a curated playlist for quiet reflection. They've also got sleep meditations so you can wind down your day and reflect on what's happened. Over 20 million people get that. 20 million people have used Glorify to deepen their relationship with God. They've provided an opportunity now for PDB listeners to get full access to Glorified for less than $30 for the entire year. All you have to do is download the app and that's@glorified-app.com PDB that's glorified-app.com PDB feel closer to God this year with Glorifi. Get full access all year for just 29.99 at glorifi-app.com/pdb. Hey, Sal. Hank. What's going on? We haven't worked a case in years. I just bought my car at Carvana and it was so easy. Too easy. Think something's up? You tell me. They got thousands of options, found a great car at a great price, huh? And it got delivered the next day. It sounds like Carvana just makes it easy to buy your car, Hank. Yeah, you're right. Case closed.
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B
Buy your car today. On.
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C
Delivery fees may apply.
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A
I usually ask potential criminals to have a seat, but now I'm asking you to join me, Chris Hansen, for my new series, have a Seat with Chris Hansen. Guests each week are fascinating personalities who are grabbing headlines, making waves, or changing our lives for the better. Have a Seat with Chris Hansen. Available wherever you go. Get your podcasts. Welcome back to the PDP Situation Report. Joining me once again is human rights advocate Sharon Narman. She spent a couple of years in her younger days as a political prisoner of the Islamic Republic. And we've been fortunate enough, Sharon, to talk about your, your background. I, I do want to revisit that if I could just. And I know, I apologize if I'm asking questions that perhaps you don't want to answer. But during that period of time while you were detained, what was to. That is two parts to this. What was the, the most difficult aspect of, of that period of your life and what kept you going?
- [16:34]
B
You know, I was physically severely tortured and I spent six Months in solitary confinement. But none of that. I don't even remember the pain or anything. What it sticks with me is seeing remembering those moments that our friends, our loved ones were called out and we knew it's in the afternoon, so that means that they are going to be executed. That pain always stays in me. Saying goodbye, the last goodbye, and then sitting either next to the window or if we had access to the little yard that we had, we used to go there and hearing the firing squad and then counting the coup de gras and also smell the gunpowder. Inhaling that, it was like inhaling our friends, the ones that we love. And that always stays with me. That never goes away. And that is my motivation to see that that will not happen in Iran anymore and stop all these people that were executed, believe it or not, I feel that they are right now, they are with me and we are finally watching the last moments of this regime and this regime falls and once and for all we can enjoy freedom and democracy and freedom of expression. That's the important thing. And that's what really stays with me.
- [18:15]
A
Yeah, what, what do you think makes this time possibly different, possibly more impactful on the people of Iran in terms of the protests, rising up against the mullahs, the irgc? Is there one particular issue? Is it the economy? Is it mismanagement of resources, water scarcity? What is it, do you think?
- [18:42]
B
It's a combination of everything. People are fed up everywhere they look at economy, lack of the mismanagement and the amount of embezzlement and stealing money, and the oligarchs that, the sons and daughters of these people that pushing them, giving them hard time and telling them, oh, you know, you have to. Don't look at other things. You have to sacrifice for Iran. But their kids are living in luxurious houses in Canada and even unfortunately in America and, you know, around the world. And very openly they put all their pictures or their lifestyles in Instagram in different places. So I, I think all of that has brought. And also the mismanagement of environmental things that we have, like water, like power, all of that. It's a combination of more than 40 years of frustration with this issue that has brought people to this point, that they rather to die than live like this one more day. So we can see it with the short stories that the young men and women, they put in their accounts in social media. You see it and they tell you, I am tired. I rather to die, fight for freedom than living like this anymore. So I think people got to the point that no matter what the cause is. They want to be free and they.
- [20:26]
A
Want to fight to, to that point. The irgc, the Revolutionary God Corps is very entrenched, right? I mean our, you know, we've talked here on PDB elsewhere about how they're, they're so ingrained into every aspect of Iranian society and economy that there is no upside for them to hand over power or to see a new day because there goes their authority, there goes their revenue streams. So I guess I'm asking a not very well formed question, but I'm looking for your, your views on the irgc, on its strength, on its ability to, to, to possibly change into something else. Because I don't see how the protests themselves shift that structure, how they get them out of the way so that you can have a new government.
- [21:30]
B
So this regime knows that that's why they're going to fight very hard. That's why we don't believe that this regime goes with, you know, just a protest. You have to fight and that's why you need resistance units. And that's why that is a base of National Liberation Army. And that's what our organization, movement National Council of Resistance has and has been working for past few years to building that up. And that's what we are seeing that you know, the cells they are attacking or they're defending themselves. That's why we are asking to recognize the rights of Iranian people for defending themselves. That is important. Don't call them terrorists later on, you know, at any time. These are freedom fighters. Remember the founding fathers of this country, they took arm and they fought back the English monarchy, right? So the same rights for Iranian people. They need to be able to fight back. And we say that this regime is not going to go just by the simple protest. They need to be fought back and that's what is going to happen. I don't know how, I'm not in that part, but my mind I'm thinking that it would be like cities to be liberated and then spreading out. That's what I think is going to be. But I don't know exactly how. But I'm sure those people that are working on it and are in charge of it, they have thought about different ways. But I can say that with having thousands of sales resistance units inside of Iran, thousands and thousands all around the country and as we can see that it's been spreading so quickly, I think that is the key to all of this, that there is a movement, there is a resistance and there is a fight back and there is a Will for the regime church, it does seem.
- [23:39]
A
Like, it feels like this is different. Right. And in looking at past protests, they seemed that they were more siloed, more, more contained within a certain element, whether it's the students, truck drivers, whatever it might be. There was, there were just small, you know, groups that were focused on this. And then it, it did fizzle out because the IRGC is so good at, at crushing dissent. But this does feel perhaps because of the economic situation. And, and look, if you can't, if you turn the tap on, there's no water. And then you understand how corrupt and mismanaged the whole system has been for the years. And you think how is it that we have no water or power, massive rolling blackouts, that affects a much broader sector of society. So I think it does feel different. But do you think this is possible? Do you think that you can finally get to that day without external support? And if not, what do you think that external support needs to look like?
- [24:53]
B
The external support it can be just sending. Recognizing the National Council of Resistance, recognizing Madame Rajavi as the righteous leader for Iranian regime as an alternative. She's the only one that has a 10 point plan. She has organized the organization around him and organized resistance units in Iran. She has said it many, many times. Madame Rajavi has said it many, many times. The change will come from within Iran and not by any external forces. I think it's important for the west, for the Europe especially and United States to stand against the regime, expel all their diplomats, shut down their embassies and you know, severe diplomatic ties completely with the Iranian regime and stand up and support Iranian people along with recognizing the true opposition led by Mariam Rajavi and recognize that and we get there. This is what we need. We need the whole world to recognize and legitimize the fight, fighting back decision for a free Iran and Iranian regime should be completely, completely under pressure of diplomatic and any economic sanctioning or anything that there is to put pressure on Iranian regime and the change will come from with it. That's the important thing.
- [26:37]
A
Yeah, I think. Shirin Narman, I've got a bunch more questions which means we've got to have to have you back on the show because we've run out of time. But your, your story, your optimism, very inspiring and I want to thank you very much for joining us here today on the Situation Report and, and sharing and sharing your story. We look forward to talking to you again.
- [26:59]
B
Thank you so much. I would be happy and hopefully with the happier notes and I'M anytime you need me. Okay. Thank you.
- [27:07]
A
Excellent.
- [27:08]
B
Thank you.
- [27:08]
A
Take care. Happy to be here. All right.
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C
Wow.
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A
Coming up next, 2025 was a defining year for Israel with war in Gaza and of course, dangerous escalation with Iran. So where does that leave the region heading into 2026? Well, I'm glad you asked because we'll have more on that when we come back. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time to talk about financial goals. Right. And moving into 2026, that's a perfect time to do it. Look, you don't need to overhaul your life to start investing. You just automate it. With Stash, your new year money goals can run quietly in the background while you focus on everything else in your busy life. Stash isn't just another investing app. It's a registered investment advisor that combines automated investing with expert personalized guidance so you don't have to worry about gambling or figuring it out on your own. Think about it. Just $3 per month gets you access to world class financial advice and personalized guidance so you can start investing in your future today. Don't let your money just sit around. Put it to work with stash. Go to get.stash.com PDB to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase. And to view important disclosures, that's get.stash.com Pdb Once again, get.stash.com/PDB. This is a paid non client endorsement, not representative of all clients and not a guarantee. These investment advisory services are offered by Stash Investment LLC and sec Registered investment advisor. Investing involves risk offer is subject to terms and conditions. Welcome back to the PDB situation report. 2025 was, to say the least, an eventful year for Israel. The war in Gaza dragged on for much of the year before giving way to a tense and uncertain ceasefire. Then came 12 days of open conflict with Iran, an escalation that few thought likely. But of course, many feared. Israel spent the year balancing military necessity with diplomatic pressure while its enemies probed for weakness. As the calendar turns, the ceasefire remains brittle, Iran remains defiant, and the risk of miscalculation, well, that remains high. The big question now, does 2026 bring consolidation and deterrence or a wider regional fight? Joining us to break it down is good friend of the show and Edmund Svitten Brown. Now, Edmund Fitton Brown is a senior fellow at the foundation for Defense of Democracies. He's a Middle east scholar and he's former UK Ambassador to Yemen sir, thank you very much for joining us here again on THE SITUATION report. And happy New Year. Thank you.
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C
And happy New Year to you, too. Thank you.
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A
Well, I think if 2025 is any indication, I think 2026 may present some fast, fascinating situations in the Middle East. If you could, I know this is very broad, but let's start with a look back at 2025. What would you say if you had to place in the top three the most consequential events in the Middle east over the past year? How would you do that?
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C
Well, number one, without question, would be the 12 day war. No doubt at all the fact that Israel decided to take military action against Iran after a long period of being provoked and threatened and the fact that that military action was very successful and it was also joined by the United States and the fact that Iran was defeated and is therefore now in a much weaker position than it was at the beginning of the year. That's a big change in the Middle East. And of course, at the risk of anticipating where our conversation might go later on, we should, of course, say that we're now witnessing popular protests in Iran over the period of late December and now early January. And one of the reasons that the, that the regime looks weak is because of the, the loss of credibility from losing a war.
- [31:18]
A
That's definitely something we want to hit on is, is what's happening currently in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran. It does feel different than past protests that had broken out over the years. So the, the Iran war. Let's let, let me divert, I know I'd asked you for your top three, but I want to, I want to follow up on something you said they lost the war. There's no doubt about that. They were significantly degraded, both their, their missile infrastructure, their nuclear program. But there's a lot of debate at the White House. In the US The White House came out shortly after and said we obliterated their nuclear program. And, and I believe President Trump continues to say still imply that, but damage assessments don't seem to support that. So how would you describe the actual results of let's, let's kind of separate that out, the US Targeting of the nuclear facilities and also the Israeli broader effort to target the ballistic missile infrastructure.
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C
Yeah. I mean, it's unfortunate in a way that the damage assessment has become politicized. Maybe it was inevitable that it would it was perhaps unwise of the president to use the word obliterated because that a relatively easy thing to disagree with because obliterated implies that there's nothing left. But at the same time, I remember that some of the attempts to undermine that analysis at the time were heavily politicized as well. They were really wanting to try and pretend that almost nothing had been achieved because there was a political wish to make that argument. The reality is that the program was severely damaged. There's no doubt about that. Of course, to some degree, what's buried under rubble, you can't be 100% sure of what exactly that looks like. There have been a lot of Iranian efforts, as you know, around the sites to sort of recover things. Now, what that recovery looks like, there's no suggestion certainly that they've been able to recover a significant amount of functioning equipment or indeed of enriched uranium. But they are very keen to rebuild the program as soon as they can. They also want to rebuild the missile, ballistic missile program as soon as they can. And of course, they'll have been rebuilding their air defenses again as quickly as they could. But that doesn't alter the fact that the military success against them was pretty overwhelming. The fact that the Israelis had complete control of the skies over Iran for that period, the fact that the US Planes were able to deploy with zero risk to take out the, or to attack the key site. So I think what we have to say here is that Iran's capability has been severely degraded, severely set back, and their ability to rebuild it also because of their fear that the inhibition against military action, against their military preparations is now gone. And therefore, you know, they, they know that they could be attacked again at any moment. And we had that meeting just now between, between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump just before the New Year in which Trump again said that he would back the Israelis if they needed to take further military action against Iran. So I think the Iranians start this year really, really, absolutely on the canvas. Now. The question is whether they get up off the canvas. First of all, do they manage to overcome these currents, the current unrest, the demonstrations that are happening right now In I think 50 or 60 cities in Iran. And if they do manage to suppress those protests, and I very much hope that they won't succeed, but if they do, then they will face major challenges to rebuilding their military programs because they will be threatened both by the United States and primarily by Israel.
- [35:42]
A
Yeah, I always, I, my, my problem, I think sometimes is I, I can be very cynical. I just, I guess it's, you know, it's based on past work experience and, and having watched and, and dealt with some of these protests that, that, you know, pop up occasionally over the years. In, in Iran, you can become very cynical because you look at it, you think, okay, the way this has to happen, this has to come up from within, right? The, the. The population of Iran has to take charge, has to leave this to have any sort of meaningful future without the mullahs and the irgc. But the IRGC just seems, you know, fully capable every time of, of crushing the dissent, and these things tend to fizzle out. This does feel different. How would you assess what you're currently seeing in Iran, looking forward? And do you. Do you have any optimism that somehow this might finally be different?
- [36:46]
C
Well, I mean, you. Of course I share your, Your sort of pessimism. I think we have pessimism as a default setting, don't we? We see these things go wrong so often. But there are a number of reasons why this might be different. I mean, one is, of course, that the Israelis, when they conducted the campaign in the 12 Day War, they were also attacking various organs of regime enforcement. And so there are a number of. There's a certain amount of infrastructure, Basij infrastructure in Iran that was damaged by the Israelis. So in a sense, the organs of coercion in Iran are a little bit weaker than they were. I think also the backdrop to this, this is not just about freedom. Freedom is important, and it's a huge sort of rallying cry for the Iranian protesters. But this started off as a sort of a mass sense of exhaustion at the corruption and inefficiency of the government. The fact that they can't provide water to Tehran, the fact they can't reliably provide power to heat and light people's houses during the winter. And so I think, you know, you saw that a lot of this originated from angry shopkeepers and angry workers who were who, you know, just sort of saying, enough is enough. It's not. This is not a. This is not a student protest, although the students have joined it. And so it feels to me more like a mass movement than it did before. Another thing is that this one seems to be rallying to some degree behind the person behind the old ruling family. Old royal family of Iran. I don't know what to make of that. I was always skeptical, very skeptical about the idea that there would ever be a return to the royal family. But for whatever reason, the name of the Shah keeps coming up, and as if maybe that's part of the challenge, maybe that's part of them sort of saying that the inhibitions are gone and they can say what they want, regardless of the fact that it's punishable you know, very severely punishable within the Islamic Republic. So if you add all those factors together, it looks possible to me that this might just be something that gets out of the regime's control. Now, there's an interesting sort of rogue factor that's just entered the equation, which is President Trump overnight has tweeted that he would use American military force against the Iranian regime if they shoot the demonstrators. Now, of course, they're already shooting the demonstrators. So if that's a real threat, if that's not just an angry middle of the night sort of expostulation, that could be significant. And if you're the Iranian regime, you're going to worry about it because you've already seen that President Trump doesn't have any inhibitions when it comes to sort of launching military action. If he feels strongly about something, that makes it something that they're going to think about, even if, even if in reality we don't see US Intervention.
- [40:02]
A
Yeah, he also has no inhibitions. And posting on social media. Yeah, it is hard to interpret, I think anyone who, and that's part of the interesting factor here, you know, in a broader sense, you know, people I know, you know, look, you can, you can like him, you can dislike him, you can love him, you can hate him. I'm talking about President Trump. And you can sometimes look at from outside and look at what the White House does from a foreign policy perspective and say it just seems chaotic or inconsistent. You know, that, that would be a negative argument. But at the same time, you could look at it and say, well, it, it does keep, you know, certain nation states out there on their back foot. I mean, because they're not sure how to interpret anything that comes out of the White House. And sometimes I would argue anyway that that's not a, a bad thing. Sir, I've got, I've got a lot more questions here. We've got obviously a lot to unpack and if we're going to solve all the problems in the Middle east in the next 10 minutes or so. Yeah, we got to get busy. So if you could stick around with us. We have to take a quick break and we'll be right back with more of the PDB situation report. Please stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a bit of your time to talk about diversification and protecting your hard earned assets. Now, let me ask a question. Did you know that gold is up around 40% this past year? Look, that's not speculation. That's just the way it is. It's reality. And If a portion of your savings aren't diversified into gold, well, yeah, you're missing the boat. Here's the facts. Inflation is still too high, the US dollar is, well, still too weak. And the government debt at times can seem insurmountable. And that's why central banks have been flocking to gold and they're the ones driving prices up to record highs. But the good news is it's not too late to buy gold from Birch Gold Group. Birch Gold can help you convert an existing IRA or a 401k into a tax sheltered IRA in gold. And get this, you don't pay a dime out of pocket. Just text PDB to 989-898 and claim your free information kit. There's no obligation, it's just useful information. Give it a go. The best indicator of the future, as you may know, is the past. And gold has historically been a safe haven for generations. And what else can you say in that regard? Text PDB to 989-898 right now to claim your free information kit on gold. Again, that's PDB to 989898. Protect your future today with Birch Gold. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. And joining me once again is Edmund Fitten Brown, senior Fellow at the foundation for Defense of Democracies and former UK Ambassador to Yemen, not to mention supporter of the Leicester Football Club. Sir, thank you very much for sticking around. Very much appreciate it. We've been talking about Iran. There's a lot more to cover there obviously, and we're going to be watching this and talking about this for some time. I think in terms of the, the uprising, the protests, however we want to describe them currently taking place. But I wanted to switch gears if I could in looking back and also looking forward when we talk about the Middle east, obviously front and center is Gaza. And I was hoping to get your take on the current status of the ceasefire and where this may be going.
- [43:17]
C
Absolutely, Mike. Yeah. So Gaza obviously has been a huge, you know, it's been the story of the Middle east over the past more than two years now. And the Gaza peace plan, of course, which was launched by the President, that has changed some of the calculations around Gaza and Israel. It's the first time that there's been a sustained effort to force a peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. And it's been partially successful in the sense that there was a sort of a clear first phase amongst the 20 points of the 20 point plan. And that first phase has been essentially achieved. The Israeli hostages were returned all but one of the remaining remains of the deceased hostages have been returned. The Israelis fulfilled their obligations to release Palestinian prisoners, to redeploy their forces, to allow humanitarian aid to get into Gaza. So phase one is complete. Where we are now, and this really was the story of December 2025, is a sort of a maneuvering to try to capture the narrative of who's to blame if the second phase doesn't succeed. Now, it's very clear from the way that the plan is structured that the second phase is actually much more difficult for Hamas than it is for Israel. Because the things the second phase demands of Hamas are that it should relinquish power, that it should disarm, that it should accept a sort of neutral, technocratic, Palestinian temporary administration supported by Palestinian police who are not loyal to Hamas or to the Palestinian Authority. It should also accept an international stabilization force, and it should accept this thing called the Board of Peace. And Hamas has not accepted any of that. In fact, it has explicitly rejected it on a number of occasions, although one or two Hamas spokespeople have tried to hedge a little bit and say, oh, well, you know, maybe we could put weapons, you know, in a sort of some kind of storage facility so they wouldn't be immediately used. But that's not enough. The fact is that Hamas has said no to, you know, really, and most strikingly after the. You remember there was a Security Council resolution that actually endorsed the Gaza plan, and Hamas actually rejected that resolution immediately after it was passed. So now Turkey and Catai, in a sort of amazing sort of feat of doublespeak, have been trying to make out that Hamas is broadly in compliance with the peace plan and Israel is not. And that is a reversal of the truth. And I think what happened when Netanyahu visited Trump recently is that Netanyahu was able to demonstrate to Trump that actually what he was being told by people like Witkoff and Tom Barak, the ambassador in Ankara, about essentially the Qatari and the Turkish line, that Israel, Israel was not in compliance and Hamas was or might be. I think Netanyahu successfully scotched that, because we saw Trump say in the context of that Netanyahu visit, that he doesn't talk to Hamas, he talks to people who talk to Hamas who seem to think that Hamas should be on board with this plan. But if Hamas are not on board with this, then all hell will break loose. He went back to that language that he used earlier in the year against Hamas. So I think Netanyahu landed that that point. The problem, of course, is that you Know, the second. This second phase is extremely tricky, and there's no evidence that Hamas will do what they're being asked to do. The, the thing that the White House should be doing if they really want to try to make this second phase happen, is they should be putting, really putting the screws on both Turkey and Qatar and to some degree on Egypt as well, and saying, we see that Hamas has rejected the second phase of the plan. That is unacceptable, and you must make them change on that. That is the only way forward from the White House's point of view. I don't know how explicitly that's understood in the White House, but nothing else is going to work, is it?
- [47:46]
A
No, no. I. Going back to my earlier statement about being cynical about change in Iran, and I would have to. But, you know, put exponentially more so with. With Gaza. Look, I. I have been confused in watching the actions of. Of Wit Golf and Jared Kushner and others who have been on the negotiating team. It almost seems like at times, like they, you know, they, they're just ignoring the elements of this ceasefire, particularly phase two, just so they can get something right. And, and the whole history of this, this situation with the Palestinians, with Israel, has been just constant efforts to put lipstick on a pig, or however you want to call it, you know, Band Aid on a sucking chest wound and then just kick it down the road. Right. Just to say, we've got something, look at us, you know, we've got, We've got peace. Well, peace lasts for, you know, a short period of time, but it'll be somebody else's problem. That's how, that's how cynical I am. So I, you know, you would think that I agree with you if there's no pressure on Turkey. And of course, the Israelis have no interest in Turkey playing a role in this international force or any other aspect of governing Gaza. But putting pressure on them makes perfect sense. I think from my perspective, I'm just confused over why there's not more of a pragmatic tone from the White House saying this thing is falling apart because of Hamas. And then at the same time, you have to look at it and there's no upside for Hamas, from their perspective, to disarm, to give up governance. I just don't think anybody's telling the truth. I mean, from, you know, from within the. These negotiations. Right, And I get it, everyone wants to be optimistic and hopeful, but that doesn't solve problems.
- [49:34]
C
Yeah, no, I agree. I mean, you know, you mentioned Turkey. Turkey would probably go into Gaza if they were given the chance, they mustn't be allowed to go anywhere near Gaza because as you know, they have neo imperialistic ambitions in that region, which would be profoundly destabilizing. And they're also of course completely party pre 100% pro Hamas in this conflict, just as Qatar is. You mentioned the international stabilization force. This is one of the points on which this is going to collapse. I think we saw the meeting that was hosted in Qatar just a few weeks ago. Turkey was not invited, rightly not invited. That was obviously Israel's insistence. But it was good that it was recognized that Turkey was not a sensible participant in that event. But you then look at, well, what have you got? Who would actually deploy? And plenty of people want to be present in comfortable circumstances of Israel. Some people are willing to be in the Israeli controlled parts of Gaza, but very few people want to put their troops in harm's way. And the one thing we can't have here is a new uniform, another tethered goat that sits in a conflict zone, does nothing, is too afraid of its own shadow and ends up being intimidated and exploited by the terrorists. So if there's going to be an international stabilization force, it needs to be one that is actively engaged in disarming Hamas, enforcing peace. And that will mean taking casualties. And I don't see anybody queuing up to take casualties in Gaza.
- [51:13]
A
Yeah, yeah, I always have cakes that, that, that's my favorite comment. I, I've been referring to you, to Phil over the years as a sort of effectless element, but tethered goat is much better, sir. So I, I appreciate that one. I'm gonna steal that line. We, we were just about out of time, but we've got so much out, we haven't even talked about Lebanon. And I also wanted to get your brief assessment, if I could just now maybe sort of the last question. There's a fascinating situation that's been developing between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and it kind of came out in the open the other day when ks when the, the kingdom targeted weapons shipment that the UAE had sent into Yemen. And I want to get your take on, on the relationship and also if you can, I know, is there any way you could, you could, you could explain the Yemeni situation and give me a couple of minutes.
- [52:12]
C
All right. I'll do my best. We've got a long standing civil war between the Houthis and the, if you like, the sort of the majority community of Yemen, which is predominantly in the south and the east of the country that is unresolved and of course, the Saudis are part of that conflict. They've been fighting the Houthis. But there's a truce, and the Saudis are trying to sustain that truce with the Houthis. They don't want anything to destabilize it. They're worried about the fact that the southern separatists had been taking power in large areas of the country that's not controlled by the Houthis. And the UAE had been supporting the southern separatists, working very closely with them. So in a weird way, you could say that Saudi and Emirati objectives had diverged during a sort of a period of stasis in the Yemeni civil war. And it suddenly sprang into view when there was this dynamic movement by the southern separatists supported by the Emiratis, and the Saudis didn't like it. And the Saudis, when they initially sort of asked for the southerners to sort of wind it in, and it didn't happen. And of course, they had the head of the internationally recognized government, Rashad Alimi, actually in Riyadh and sort of, you know, protesting and saying, you know, my. You know, my government's been hijacked by these southern separatists. Then the Saudis decided to take unexpectedly fierce action against that ship that was bringing in supplies, Emirati supplies to the southern separatists. The Emiratis have immediately backed down. They've said that I think they've already probably withdrawn their forces. They said they were withdrawing their forces with immediate effect, and they had no intention of causing instability that would affect the sisterly kingdom of Saudi Arabia. So. So the Emiratis are trying to defuse this problem. But the southerners, of course, they are their own agents. They may do their own thing anyway because they're making their own judgment about what actually works for them. And one of the problems is that they're not really confident that the northerners in the government coalition or the Saudis are any longer committed to the fight against the Houthis. So we've got chaos, effectively. And I think the Saudis and the Emiratis are such close allies, they will patch up their disagreement, and there won't be a sort of major breakdown between those two partners. But in Yemen, there's a risk of chaos, there's a risk of fracture of the anti Guthi front, and of course, therefore, a risk that the Houthis will be more successful.
- [54:46]
A
Ambassador, that is, that was a masterclass in explaining an incredibly complex situation. In short order, I'd encourage everybody to pay attention to that if you've been confused by what's happening. Last question. I lied when I said the previous was the last question. So 2026, here we are, we're walking into it. Is that going to bring peace in the Middle east or more of the same?
- [55:11]
C
Well, the first thing is let's see what happens in Iran. You know, we'll probably know in a week or so whether it's more of the same in Iran or whether something really dramatic has changed. So let's hope for that. I mean, talk about things that would make the world a better place. The fall of the Islamic Republic would number one on my list. That aside, Yemen is unfinished business. The Houthis will continue to threaten whenever it suits them to do so. And I think the Israelis are very well aware of that. The United States, I think, is probably being unwisely relaxed about Yemen. I think Yemen will come back to haunt us during 2026 again. And Lebanon, of course, the disarming of Hezbollah has not happened yet. The Israelis have made it clear that they will use force. And I think that's prob. What's going to happen, because at the moment, the Lebanese just haven't yet got the message that Israel will not tolerate a buildup like the one we saw before. And then the very last thing I'll say if I've got time is, of course, the biggest of all of these, Iran aside, Iran is the biggest. But once you've dealt with Iran, once you're talking about the Arab countries, the biggest of all of them is Syria. And in Syria, it is all to play for. And it requires a lot of Western engagement. It probably requires a lot more critical engagement and a lot more pressure than the west is currently exerting in Syria. Because ideally, we do not want Syria to fail. Syria has been failing, of course, for a long time. We would like it to succeed, but success in Syria is going to be very difficult to achieve.
- [56:51]
A
That was a terrific recap and rundown of what we might be expecting in 2026. I'm going to head back on if you're willing, and we're going to. And you can kind of take a look at what you've just said. We'll replay it. Yeah, we'll go through it now. Listen to Evan Fitting Brown. It's always a pleasure and thank you very much for joining us today, sharing your insight and obviously. Go, Lester.
- [57:15]
C
Thanks, Mike.
- [57:16]
A
Happy New Year. And to you too, sir. Thank you. Well, that's all the time we have for the PDB situation report. If you've got any questions or comments, even a humorous anecdote or a limerick. I don't even know if people still do limerick. So please reach out to me at pdb@thefirst tv.com. you know what we do once a month, right, that we gather everybody, including our crack team of interns, around the big Mahogany conference table. We go through all your faxes, all your, your, you know, cards and letters and do people still send postcards and letters? When was the last time you got a letter? And we pick out the best ones and then we put them together into a. An episode that we call Ask Me Anything within reason. So keep your cards and letters coming to listen to the podcast of the show ad free. You can become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com It really is that simple. And by the way, how about that Ole Miss hottie Toddy, right? They just won the Sugar bowl and took it to Georgia. Now they're going to be facing Miami in a tough semifinal college football playoff game. I know you'll all be rooting for the Ole Miss Rebels. I'm Mike Baker. Until next time, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.