The President's Daily Brief Situation Report | January 3, 2026: Iran’s Streets Erupt & What Comes Next for Israel

Host: Mike Baker, The First TV
Guests:

• Shirin Naraman, Human Rights Advocate & Former Political Prisoner (Iran)
• Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Former UK Ambassador to Yemen
  Date: January 3, 2026

Episode Overview

Mike Baker hosts the year's first Situation Report, delving into the escalation of anti-government protests in Iran and their regional implications. Human rights advocate Shirin Naraman provides an emotional, firsthand account of Iran’s resistance, while Edmund Fitton-Brown analyzes Israel’s turbulent 2025 and offers a look ahead for the Middle East in 2026.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Erupting Protests in Iran

Host Overview:

• Protests are surging in Iran, ignited by severe economic decline but rapidly morphing into broad defiance against the clerical regime and the IRGC (00:12).
• Merchants in Tehran’s bazaars have closed shops in multi-day strikes.
• Chants are now openly calling for the end of the regime, exposing years of pent-up frustration.

“When Iran’s merchants, workers and students all move together, history suggests that momentum could build quickly.” — Mike Baker (01:30)

2. Interview with Shirin Naraman: Inside the Iranian Resistance

Shirin’s Story: Surviving and Resisting

• Shirin became politically active in her teens during the revolution, supporting democratic hopes and was imprisoned as a teenager for over a year (02:33).
• She experienced severe torture and witnessed the executions of friends and cellmates, instilling in her a lifelong commitment to activism.

“Not only I went through severe tortures, but also I witnessed so many young and old, from 13-year-old to mothers, being arrested, tortured, and executed... I promised myself that if I have the opportunity, I would continue their work and I would never be silent and I would fight for a free Democratic Republic of Iran.” — Shirin Naraman (02:33)

The Current Protest Movement

• The latest unrest is the “widest spread” in years, now in its sixth day, driven by economic collapse and day-to-day hardships, but evolving into a fight for systemic change (07:06).
• Shirin is optimistic, citing a more unified and politically aware populace, and a robust resistance network—including the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).

“Our resistance always said that Iran is a ticking bomb and is going to explode any minute. And now it's happening.” — Shirin Naraman (07:46)

• She notes regimes' tactics to fracture opposition, e.g., injecting pro-monarchy slogans through IRGC agents, but says people are more aware and resistant to manipulation (09:47).

Why She Believes This Protest Is Different

• People are willing to fight back, with organized “resistance units” engaging security forces (11:00).
• The movement is not just sporadic or limited to students or one sector, but is “spreading so quickly” across classes and cities.
• The NCRI, led by Maryam Rajavi and her 10-point plan, is positioned as an alternative for governing Iran (11:30).

“This regime is not going to go just by the simple protest. They need to be fought back and that's what is going to happen.” — Shirin Naraman (21:29)

The Role of International Support

• Shirin calls for the West to “recognize” the Iranian opposition, specifically NCRI and Rajavi, and to “expel all [Iran's] diplomats, shut down their embassies and...severe diplomatic ties completely” (24:53).

3. 2025 in Review & Regional Implications: With Edmund Fitton-Brown

Israel, Gaza, and the Regional Balance

The Top 3 Middle East Events of 2025:

1. The 12-Day Israel-Iran War, marking a dramatic power shift as Israel (backed by the US) militarily defeated Iran, especially degrading their missile and nuclear infrastructure (30:20).

“Israel decided to take military action against Iran...and Iran was defeated and is therefore now in a much weaker position than it was at the beginning of the year. That's a big change in the Middle East.” — Edmund Fitton-Brown (30:20)

2. Ongoing mass protests in Iran, partially fueled by regime weakness after its military defeat.
3. The fragile ceasefire and complex peace negotiations in Gaza.

Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Capabilities

• Despite politicized public assessments, Fitton-Brown asserts Iran’s programs were “severely damaged”, and they are left “on the canvas” with a fear of further strikes (32:25).
• There’s urgency to see whether the Iranian regime can suppress protests or will face continued unrest and external pressure (35:41).

Will the Protests Succeed?

• Fitton-Brown cautiously optimistic: This time the movement is larger, more grassroots (shopkeepers, workers), not just students (36:45).
• Regime enforcement mechanisms (e.g., Basij) were weakened in the recent war, potentially giving protesters an edge.
• Uncertainty introduced by Trump’s statement about US military intervention if demonstrators are shot (39:45).

“If you add all those factors together, it looks possible to me that this might just be something that gets out of the regime's control.” — Edmund Fitton-Brown (39:21)

Israel's Situation with Gaza

• A phased peace plan’s first phase completed (hostages exchanged, redeployment, humanitarian aid); the second phase (disarmament and governance change by Hamas) is stalled as Hamas rejects its terms (43:16).
• Fitton-Brown believes outside powers (Turkey, Qatar) continue enabling Hamas’s intransigence and must face pressure to bring Hamas in line (47:46).

“If there's going to be an international stabilization force, it needs to be one that is actively engaged in disarming Hamas...I don't see anybody queuing up to take casualties in Gaza.” — Edmund Fitton-Brown (50:49)

Saudi-UAE Dynamics in Yemen

• Recent friction exposed when Saudi Arabia targeted Emirati-backed weapons convoys to southern Yemeni separatists, reflecting diverging interests amid the ongoing (but currently paused) Yemen civil war (52:12).
• Fitton-Brown predicts Saudi-Emirati ties will survive, but Yemen risks further chaos and Houthi gains.

Looking Ahead: 2026 Forecast

• Iran is the biggest wild card: the regime’s fall would remake the region (55:10).
• Israel-Lebanon tensions over Hezbollah remain unresolved and could escalate.
• Yemen and Syria both risk renewed/continued instability if under-addressed by the international community.

“Talk about things that would make the world a better place. The fall of the Islamic Republic would number one on my list.” — Edmund Fitton-Brown (55:16)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I was physically severely tortured and I spent six months in solitary confinement. But none of that...what sticks with me is...the last goodbye, and then...hearing the firing squad and then counting the coup de gras and also smell the gunpowder. Inhaling that, it was like inhaling our friends, the ones that we love.” — Shirin Naraman, on her prison experience (16:33)
• “This regime knows that that's why they're going to fight very hard. That's why we don't believe that this regime goes with, you know, just a protest. You have to fight and that's why you need resistance units.” — Shirin Naraman (21:29)
• “Trump overnight has tweeted that he would use American military force against the Iranian regime if they shoot the demonstrators. Now, of course, they're already shooting the demonstrators...If that's a real threat...that could be significant.” — Edmund Fitton-Brown (39:45)
• “If there's going to be an international stabilization force, it needs to be one that is actively engaged in disarming Hamas, enforcing peace. And that will mean taking casualties. And I don't see anybody queuing up to take casualties in Gaza.” — Edmund Fitton-Brown (51:04)
• “The fall of the Islamic Republic would number one on my list [of things that would make the world a better place].” — Edmund Fitton-Brown (55:16)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:12 — Opening and Iran protests context
• 02:11 — Shirin Naraman introduction
• 02:33 — Shirin’s personal history and experience in Iranian prison
• 06:52 — Shirin assesses current protest movement
• 09:36 — Why previous protest cycles "fizzled out" and why this is different
• 16:33 — Shirin recounts prison trauma and motivation
• 18:15 — Economic & social drivers of current protest
• 21:29 — The role of resistance and view on IRGC's entrenchment
• 24:53 — The necessity and form of international support
• 29:46 — Edmund Fitton-Brown: Reviewing 2025's top events
• 32:25 — The true impact of the Israel-US war on Iran’s military capacity
• 36:45 — Comparing 2023-2026 protests: Is this time different?
• 43:16 — Gaza: Ceasefire, the peace plan, and the diplomatic chessboard
• 47:46 — Disarmament and stabilization challenges in Gaza
• 52:12 — Saudi-UAE split and Yemen’s chaotic outlook
• 55:10 — Forecasts for Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria in 2026

Summary

This episode offers a rare combination of personal testimony and geopolitical analysis, tying the passion and stakes of the Iranian protest movement to the strategic recalibrations playing out across the Middle East. Listeners walk away with a nuanced, ground-level sense of Iran’s unrest and its potential to reshape regional dynamics, as well as a clear-eyed forecast for the enduring flashpoints in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria.