PDB Situation Report | July 5th, 2025: Can Israel Finish Off Hamas? & Chinese Spy Ring On American Soil

Summary

Podcast Summary: The President's Daily Brief | July 5th, 2025

Title: Can Israel Finish Off Hamas? & Chinese Spy Ring On American Soil
Host: Mike Baker
Guests: Seth Franceman, Gordon Chang
Release Date: July 5, 2025

In this episode of "The President's Daily Brief," host Mike Baker delves into two critical global issues: the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, and a significant espionage case involving a Chinese spy ring on American soil. Former CIA Operations Officer Mike Baker provides in-depth analysis with expert guests Seth Franceman and Gordon Chang.

---

1. Israel's Renewed Focus on Gaza

Timestamp: 02:36 – 05:37

Mike Baker opens the discussion by addressing Israel's intensified efforts to dismantle Hamas following their declared victory over Iran. After nearly two years of conflict, the question remains: Is Israel closer to eliminating Hamas?

Key Points:

• Targeting Hamas Leadership: Israel has recently announced the death of Hakam Mohammed Issa, a co-founder of Hamas and head of its combat support headquarters, marking a significant blow to the group's leadership.
• Continued Control by Hamas: Despite these losses, Hamas still maintains control over a substantial portion of Gaza's civilian population and key territories.
• Netanyahu's Declaration: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has strongly stated, “there will be no more Hamas” (02:36), emphasizing his commitment to eradicating the group.

Notable Quote:

• Seth Franceman emphasizes the persistence of Hamas, stating, “It’s over. We will free all our hostages and eliminate Hamas down to its very foundations” (02:36).

Guest Insight: Seth Franceman, author of The October 7th War, provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the conflict, highlighting the resilience of Hamas despite significant military losses. He notes that while many Hamas fighters have been defeated, the organization continues to recruit and maintain a presence in Gaza, particularly in areas holding hostages (03:27).

---

2. Ceasefire Discussions and Political Challenges

Timestamp: 04:37 – 07:01

The conversation shifts to the complexities of negotiating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Mike Baker raises concerns about the feasibility of a ceasefire that satisfies both parties' contradictory demands.

Key Points:

• Ceasefire Proposal: Qatari mediators have proposed a 60-day ceasefire, reportedly agreed to by Netanyahu, to be presented to Hamas.
• Conflicting Objectives: Israel demands the removal and disarmament of Hamas, while Hamas seeks the withdrawal of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) from Gaza, creating an impasse.

Notable Quote: Franceman discusses the cyclical nature of ceasefire proposals, stating, “the same ceasefire deal has been going on since March when the first ceasefire fell apart” (07:01).

Guest Insight: Franceman elaborates on the historical context of ceasefire attempts, noting that similar deals have failed in the past due to unchanging parameters. He suggests that external pressures, such as U.S. mediation, might force both sides to revisit negotiations despite their conflicting demands (05:37).

---

3. Gaza Humanitarian Foundation and Aid Distribution

Timestamp: 16:58 – 23:45

Mike Baker introduces the topic of aid distribution in Gaza, specifically focusing on the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a U.S.-backed initiative aimed at delivering aid directly to civilians without Hamas interception.

Key Points:

• Establishment of GHF: Created to ensure that aid reaches civilians directly, bypassing Hamas-controlled areas.
• Operational Success: As of the interview, GHF has delivered 56 million meals across several distribution sites.
• Challenges and Pushback: Hamas opposes GHF as it undermines their control over aid distribution, while traditional NGOs face criticism for inefficiencies and potential misappropriation of resources.

Notable Quote: Franceman explains the strategic importance of GHF, stating, “they have put in signs, they closed off roads. Again, you would think, okay, but they probably should have done that weeks ago” (23:45).

Guest Insight: Franceman highlights the operational hurdles faced by GHF, including security challenges and logistical chaos during meal distributions. He critiques the reliance on private security contractors and underscores the need for more transparent monitoring to prevent civilian casualties (21:23).

---

4. Chinese Espionage Case on American Soil

Timestamp: 32:41 – 43:37

The second major topic addresses a recent espionage case where two Chinese nationals were arrested for acting as illegal agents for Beijing's Ministry of State Security. The case underscores the ongoing threat of Chinese intelligence operations within the United States.

Key Points:

• Arrest Details: Chen, an Oregon resident, and Liren Lai, who arrived in Houston on a tourist visa, were charged with collecting intelligence on U.S. Navy personnel and military bases, and attempting to recruit U.S. service members.
• Scope of Chinese Espionage: Gordon Chang, author of Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America, emphasizes the extensive nature of Chinese intelligence efforts in the U.S., with estimates of theft costing the country up to $500 billion annually.

Notable Quote: Chang criticizes the penalties for espionage, stating, “they’re being charged with being foreign agents and not notifying the Attorney General, which means that they can get 10 years in prison and a $250,000 fine” (32:56).

Guest Insight: Chang argues for more stringent measures against Chinese espionage, advocating for severe penalties and a complete severance of ties, including the closure of Chinese consulates and stripping down embassy staff. He underscores the critical need to protect American economic and national security interests (34:08).

---

5. Shifts in China's Leadership and Stability

Timestamp: 48:10 – 58:27

The episode concludes with an examination of potential shifts within China's leadership, particularly focusing on President Xi Jinping's waning influence and the implications for China's global stance.

Key Points:

• Xi Jinping’s Declining Influence: Reports suggest that Xi Jinping may be losing control over the Chinese military, highlighted by the disappearance of General Hu Weidong and the rise of dissent within the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
• BRICS Summit Absence: Xi's absence from the upcoming BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro signals potential instability within the Chinese regime and diminishes China's influence within the group.
• Future Leadership: Rumors indicate that Xi might be transitioning to a figurehead role, with military leaders like General Zhang Yao Shao potentially taking more significant control (50:55).

Notable Quote: Chang speculates on Xi’s diminished power, stating, “we have to put our trust in that these changes will happen before the Chinese kill any more Americans” (37:33).

Guest Insight: Chang provides a critical analysis of the internal power struggles within China's leadership, suggesting that Xi Jinping is at a tipping point where he may no longer control the military or the broader political landscape. He anticipates significant changes in China's governance structure, which could impact global geopolitical dynamics (52:28).

---

Conclusion

In this episode, Mike Baker effectively navigates two pivotal issues: the protracted Israel-Hamas conflict and the pervasive threat of Chinese espionage in the United States. With expert insights from Seth Franceman and Gordon Chang, the discussion highlights the complexities of achieving lasting peace in Gaza and underscores the urgent need to address national security threats posed by foreign intelligence operations. Additionally, the potential instability within China's leadership presents a critical juncture for global politics, warranting close attention in the days ahead.

---

For further information or to engage with the topics discussed, listeners are encouraged to reach out via email at [e-mail] or follow guest experts Seth Franceman and Gordon Chang on their respective platforms.

Transcript

[Shopify Representative]

Running a business comes with a lot of what ifs, but luckily, there's a simple answer to Shopify. It's the commerce platform behind millions of businesses, including Thrive Cosmetics and Momofuku. And it'll help you with everything you need, from website design and marketing to boosting sales and expanding operations. Shopify can get the job done and make your dream a reality. Turn those what ifs into Sign up for your $1 per month [e-mail] SpecialOffer.

[Mike Baker]

4Th of July Savings are here at the Home Depot, so it's time to get your grilling on. Pick up The Traeger Pro Series 22 Pellet Grill and Smoker now on special buy for $389. Was $549. Smoke a rack of ribs or bake an apple pie. This grill is versatile enough to do it all this summer. No matter how you like your steaks, your barbecues are guaranteed to be well done. Celebrate 4th of July with fast free delivery on select grills. Right now at the Home Depot, it's up to availability. Welcome to the PDP Situation report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll start things off with Israel's renewed focus on Gaza. Now, after declaring victory over Iran, the Israeli military is now targeting what remains of Hamas leadership. But nearly two years into the war, is Israel any closer to eliminating Hamas for good? Author Seth Franceman joins us to break it down. Later in the show, a Chinese spy ring uncovered on American soil. This is me wearing my shocked face. Two Chinese nationals are accused of targeting US Navy personnel and recruiting others to help gather intel for Beijing's Ministry of State Security. Author Gordon Chang, good friend of the show, joins us for more on that. But first, our Situation report Spotlight. Now that Israel's war with Iran has cooled, at least for now, the focus is once again back on Gaza. Earlier this week, the Israeli Defense Forces announced the death of Hakam Mohammed Issa. He's a co founder of Hamas and head of its combat support headquarters. Now it's another blow, obviously, to Hamas's leadership. But despite the loss, the group still controls much of the civilian population and key territory across the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared, quote, there will be no more Hamas.

[Seth Franzman]

It's over.

[Mike Baker]

We will free all our hostages and eliminate Hamas down to its very foundations, end quote. But after nearly 21 months of war, is Israel any closer to that goal? And is it even possible? Joining us now is Seth Franceman, author of the October 7th War. Seth, thank you very much for taking the time to join us here on the Situation Report. Let's start sort of at the 30,000 foot view here. I would like your perspective on where we are. There's rumblings of rekindled ceasefire discussions. At the same time, Prime Minister Netanyahu is saying, that's it, we are done. Hamas is over. We will take it down to its very foundations. How do we read these apparent mixed signals? Where are we at at the present time, from your perspective?

[Seth Franzman]

Well, it's 634 days of war since the brutal Hamas attack on October 7th. There are still 50 hostages held in Gaza. Most of the, most of the Hamas fighters and terrorists have been, have been defeated and killed and eliminated in the long war. But, but, you know, like any group, it continues to recruit, you know, probably young kids or teens or what have you. So Hamas still exists and it still holds about 40%, 30 to 40% of Gaza. That's the area where the hostages are kept. So the IDF is very reticent to go in there. Meanwhile, Israel has defeated all the other Iranian backed proxies that were linked to Hamas, basically defeated most of them, Hezbollah. Iran, the Iraqi militias are a bit weaker. The Houthis are not defeated, but they're kind of far away. So, you know, Israel feels that it might be able to risk and accept a ceasefire. Obviously people want the hostages back. But Netanyahu will also want to declare victory, right? I mean, it's, he's a politician, so he's going to want to say he won. And I think that is a big question mark. Is, is this, is this a win or is, is Hamas still there?

[Mike Baker]

Can he, from a political perspective, if you just kind of look at this in a mercenary way of holding on to his position, can he accept a ceasefire that would allow Hamas to remain in power?

[Seth Franzman]

I think it would be difficult. If Hamas is coming out of the tunnel celebrating, I mean, that doesn't look good. I think that if they can create some sort of, you know, there's talk of a transition government in Gaza, some sort of gulf backed transition or technocratic government that combines different factions or something. You know, if something like that can come into fruition, then they can, an argument can be made that Hamas is no longer the main ruling entity. But if the IGF has to withdraw under a ceasefire and the group comes back and is waving its flag, even if it's lost 90%, you know, it can, it can still say, yeah, but we, we survived the war. I mean, that's what the Vietnamese or Viet Cong did. I mean, after the Tet offensive or whatever, a lot of them were killed, but they kept, they kept fighting.

[Mike Baker]

This is an unusual question, I suppose, and I will get to the question, but I have to frame it first, which is that there have been now talk over the past 48 hours or so that the Qatari mediators are working a ceasefire, a 60 day ceasefire proposal that reportedly Prime Minister Netanyahu has agreed to. They've presented that proposal to Hamas and Hamas will now get back to the Egyptian and Qatari mediators with their response. Both sides, right? I mean, you know, primarily Israel saying, okay, we, we, we can go with this ceasefire, but when you talk about that, it seems to be completely a conflict with then Israel saying, you know, any ceasefire, any peace has to mean the removal of Hamas, their disarmament, the exile of any remaining leadership, while at the same time Hamas is saying, you know, any agreement as to mean the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. There seems to be no, no ability to marry up with the two sides to then have this talk that's out there in the public about how well we're gonna, you know, we got another ceasefire proposal. It just, it seems nonsensical in a way.

[Seth Franzman]

Right. And I think that's why you see the way in which the ceasefire keeps being trotted out, which is, remember this same idea of this ceasefire deal has been going ongoing since March when the first ceasefire fell apart, which Israel always said he doesn't want to go into the second phase and end the war. It's worth recalling also that the January deal that Trump pushed, along with his envoy Steve Witkoff, is kind of the same deal that was offered in 2024. So these, the parameters don't change much. As you noted, Israel doesn't want to end the war with Hamas still there. And Hamas says, okay, we want the war to end. And what Trump is trying to do, I think, and he's been successful in the past, is doing what he did with the Iran ceasefire, which is kind of announced at first. And then that puts pressure on the Qataris and Israel to kind of go back and kind of get, get their heads together because the Qataris have to convince Hamas, Israel, Israel's leader has to convince the more right wing ministers to accept this.

[Gordon Chang]

Do you, do you think that there's.

[Mike Baker]

Well, let me put it a different way if I could, Seth. How would you quantify currently the support for Hamas from the citizens of Gaza?

[Seth Franzman]

I mean, I think that's hard to say. It's very hard to get polling. You know, one would assume that not that many of them support Hamas after having watched, you know, half or more than half of their areas be totally destroyed in this war. And about 80 or 90% of them have been displaced, so they can't possibly wake up in the morning and think, listen, this has been really good for us. On the other side of the coin, that doesn't make them pro Israel. Right? I mean, they. They don't. They're still. They still support Palestinian nationalism. I think they probably prefer some other entity like the Palestinian Authority or whatever that would give them peace and quiet. Now, if they think Hamas can get that for them, then they might say, oh, okay, you know, you were able to get it out and get it in the end of the day, and then Hamas will declare victory, and then they will. Some of them will support them. Remember, MOS uses absolutely brutal methods to keep its chokehold on power. Right. I mean, it kills people, it tortures them. So it's hard to know the people there are frightened.

[Mike Baker]

And I want to touch on that here in just a little bit in terms of their ability to maintain control over the population through the distribution of aid. But before I get to that, I want to branch out a little bit and talk to you about what the Israeli leadership is doing in terms of regional discussions. Have you heard anything about these conversations that reportedly are taking place between Israel and Syria?

[Seth Franzman]

Yeah, it's interesting. So, you know, when the Assad regime fell in December 8, 2024, there was a lot of concern in Israel that the people were placing. Assad also had extremist backgrounds and probably were not going to be pro Israel themselves. And so there was a lot of worry about Ahmed Shara and his background. But I think over the last several months, especially after Trump met Mr. Shara and other countries in the region have all kind of come together and say, let's work together on Syria. I think it's clear now that Israel begins to understand that Israel and Syria share certain interests. They both don't. Like Iran, for instance. I mean, Iran backed the Assad regime and caused devastation there. So it's kind of natural that they might finally come together. And we've been hearing stories that, yes, Israelis are beginning to talk more openly leadership about contacts or even daily contacts. It makes sense that Israel would share intelligence on some lower level or coordinate and talk with them, and then at some point, you might see normalization. I would assume that's many years in the future, but there could be some sort of roadmap that's rolled out. And I should point to the fact that just today the IDF said they arrested an Iranian linked cell, terror cell, near the Golan, operating in Syria. So neither the Syrian government nor Israel want Iran's chemicals to be creeping back in there.

[Mike Baker]

It's got to be. You think about the seismic shift in, you know, past year and a half from the Iranian Mullahs and the IRGC's perspective and their, their place in the region. I mean, it's just, it's got to be stunning to those individuals.

[Seth Franzman]

Yeah, I mean, Iran is a fascinating story of a massive military blunder and, and a way in which arrogance, you know, can lead a country to disaster. The Iranian regime spent the last, you know, obviously 40 years or whatever saying death to America, death to Israel, et cetera. But just the last 20 years, they really convinced themselves, you know, they have all the weapons that they need to kind of bring Israel to its knees. And they thought a bunch of proxies, basically an arc of like 3,000 miles of proxies from Hezbollah all the way down to Yemen. It was enough. And they also thought these ballistic missiles were enough. Well, if they'd study history. Ballistic missiles like Saddam Scud missiles don't win wars. You need armies and you need aircraft and things like that. Right. So they, they just totally slept, walked into this. Israeli, Israel basically laid a trap for them after having. Israel, of course, had suffered terrible losses over, you know, a year and a half of fighting, including this massacre on October 7, which is the worst killing since the Holocaust of Jews. But, but they, but Israel successfully totally outwitted the Iranians and they were totally surprised by this. And then if you, if you, if.

[Mike Baker]

You take it out by sort of the next step right in the concentric circles because the world's completely interconnected. Nothing happens in a bubble into that, to that same kind of thought process. You look at Russia and you think Russia now they've lost Assad, they've lost Syria, as, as a, as a key element of their positioning in the region. They, you know, have seen Iran be diminished in this capacity. You know, Putin's going through that same thought process about his, his hold or his grip on some level of, of influence in the region. So, Seth, look, I, I've got a list of questions here to throw at you in the next segment, but first I need you to, if you could stay right where you are. We'll be right back with Seth and more from the Situation Report. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. I want to tell you about a great clothing company out there that's producing outstanding gear. It's called True Classic. Now, True Classic goes beyond fit and fabric, right? Their primary mission is to help men show up with confidence and purpose, and that's important. You want to have confidence, you want to want to have purpose. That goes without saying. Their clothing is designed to fit well, feel great, and stay affordable so men can look sharp without overspending. And what really sets True Classic apart is the intention behind the brand. Now, from supporting underserved communities to helping men feel more confident in their daily lives and. And even bringing humor to their messaging. They lead with purpose. Each piece is tailored where it matters and relaxed where it counts, offering a clean, comfortable fit and that works for everyday life. There's no stiff fabric. You don't want that. There's no bunching. You definitely don't want bunching. Just dependable quality and design. Say goodbye to overpriced designer labels and throw away fast fashion. True Classic is built for comfort, is built to last, and it's built to give back. You can find them at Target, at Costco, or just visit trueclassic.com PDB to learn more and explore their collection.

[True Classic Representative]

Hey, Mike Baker here. Let's talk about security. Specifically, let's talk about your online security. Now, going online without ExpressVPN is like. It's like leaving your laptop unattended in a busy coffee shop while you step away. Now, I'm guessing you wouldn't do that, right? But I mean, perhaps, okay, most of the time, maybe nothing happens, but you don't want to take that risk. Look, your personal data is incredibly valuable. Hackers can earn up to a thousand dollars per person by selling stolen information or on the dark web. ExpressVPN protects your data by creating a secure, encrypted tunnel between your device and the Internet. The security is top tier. Look, it would take a hacker with a supercomputer over a billion years. That's with a B. To break through ExpressVPN's encryption. Now, ExpressVPN works on all your devices, phones, laptops, tablets, and more, so you can stay protected wherever you go. It's also incredibly easy to use, and that's very important. Just open the app, tap one button, and you are instantly secured. Secure your online data today by visiting expressvpn.com baker that's B, A K E R. That's expressvpn.com baker and find out how you can get up to four months extra for free. Expressvpn.com baker hey, Mike Baker.

[Seth Franzman]

Here.

[True Classic Representative]

Now, you may not know this, but around town I'm known as a bit of a fashion icon. So let me take just a few seconds of your time to talk about a great company. It's called American Giant and what it's doing for the world of fashion. Look, the fashion industry over the years has complicated the process of clothing production by shipping cheap parts around the world to whoever can sew them the cheapest. It's that simple. And now of course, you're paying the price with rising costs. Meanwhile, American Giant, well, they keep it local. There's no outsourcing, there's no tariffs, just quality, long lasting clothes made in the usa. The problem has been that for years mega corporations obsessed with growth are churning out cheap stuff from poor materials. Working people get left behind, communities are hollowed out and junkyards are piling up with poorly made fast fashion. Thankfully, the founders of American Giant were dissatisfied with how clothes have been made. So they created their own opportunity to make things better. Choosing American Giant means taking a stand for hardworking people, local communities and quality clothes that last support American made terror free clothing with American Giant. Get 20 off your first order when you use promo code baker that's B A K E R just like you'd [e-mail] that's 20 off when you use code BAKER@american-giant dot com.

[Mike Baker]

Joining me once again here on the Situation Report is Seth Franzman, is the author of the October 7th War. Seth, thanks very much for sticking around. We were talking about Hamas and we were talking about their current hold on power, their leverage over the population of Gaza. I want to switch a little bit to talk about aid distribution and specifically the Gaza Humanitarian foundation, the ghf. What can you tell me about this organization? What can you tell me about the conflict that surrounds this organization?

[Seth Franzman]

Well, GHF came into being over the last six months basically as an initiative that is US backed to find a way to bring aid into Gaza, which is not going to be aid that is ending up in the hands of Hamas. Now what was happening in the past was you had the UN and a bunch of other organizations, they were sending in trucks, the trucks go into Gaza and then basically the un, the other organizations were not necessarily always monitoring where the trucks end up. And they had armed gunmen jumping on the trucks. Maybe they were being taken to warehouses that they were supposed to, but maybe they were being stolen. There was no way to know. And basically the concept of GHF was create a US backed organization, have the IDF basically bulldoze a few areas, big distribution sites that you can bring in trucks and put them down boxes on tables and let the people come out of. They leave Hamas areas, they come into the IDF controlled area and then they get the food. And the area is not policed by the idf. It has private security contractors, basically former US Service people mostly. And so that was what the concept was, and they wanted to roll it out in a big way. They started in May and the initiative got off to the ground. It had some challenges, but it has delivered, I think as of today, 56 million meals, which is not bad for a month and a week. Right? I mean, the 56 million meals delivered at three or four sites they're delivering every day are almost 2 million meals. I mean, so that's huge, huge amounts, right? That, that is able to feed a decent percentage of Gaza now. So that's. It looks like it's pretty successful. The problem, of course, is, you know, someone has to pay for it and, and, you know, dropping off boxes of eight off of trucks is probably not something you can do forever. It's a, it's a temporary measure, hopefully cut some ass out of the loop. And that's, that's what's happening now.

[Mike Baker]

I, I get why Hamas is, is targeting or upset with or, you know, trying to shut down ghf, the Gaza Humanitarian foundation, because, you know, if you, if you deliver that a, if you deliver food, water, supplies, medicine directly to the people, obviously, as you pointed out, you've cut out Hamas and you, you've stopped one of their primary means of controlling the population and also of a revenue stream. Right. If they're selling that aid on a secondary market. But why do you think there's been this, this pushback from the UN and from other humanitarian groups towards the ghf?

[Seth Franzman]

Well, I think, unfortunately, and it's a very cynical, sad story, is when Hamas came to power in 2007, it was basically opened up Gaza for all these NGOs to go in there and make Gaza kind of dependent. And remember, the NGOs in a sense profit off this because they get hundreds of millions or billions of dollars and they say, okay, we're helping Gaza. The more that Hamas destroys people's lives in Gaza and makes them poor and drives them into war, the more the NGOs have to come in to help, the more money they can raise. And basically what Hamas did is they outsourced all the things that a normal government does, like, like, you know, healthcare, food, everything except for roads, I guess outsourced all of it to this, this empire, empire of NGOs and UN organizations and look like any empire or any, or any business structure, you know, whether it's a corporation or whatever, they don't want to be supplanted if they have a monopoly and they have, they had a monopoly in Gaza and GHF is ripping that monopoly down. And so, and that's just a typical story you'd see whether it's a government or, or a corporation or, or an NGO, because NGOs are not as pure as they may appear, especially when they're extremely powerful and large.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah. Now you can cloak yourself in sort of that self righteous, you know, title of, of non profit or NGO and still be engaged in a wide variety of shenanigans. So have you heard any credible evidence because the narrative has been ever since ghf, you know, started their operations there that, oh my God, there's been numerous incidents.

[Seth Franzman]

Right.

[Mike Baker]

It's even been described as routine firings on Gaza civilians. They come to collect aid and they're trying to blame it off on, on the GHF to say it's, it's this group. Right. This is why they're doing it, is, is that, you look at that, look at that. My God, they're killing Palestinians. Have you heard any credible evidence that supports that narrative that you know, to be fair, started with the Hamas controlled health ministry?

[Seth Franzman]

Well, I think it's hard to say. I mean, incredible evidence. There's certainly, as you said in lots of reports, it's hard. You can't trust the Hamas controlled health ministry. You know, can you, can you trust the people that are apparently saying it? The average people there? I don't know. There's, there's also this Israeli report in Hara saying that, you know, Israeli soldiers were firing near the people that are coming now. Remember, the reason for that is because they, they don't have, they didn't put riot police there. They have soldiers with, you know, M4 rifles that are chambered with live rounds that the soldiers don't have much else. They don't have a, they don't have another means. And they were told, okay, if there's too many crowds, you know, fire in there or near them or whatever. So that's not ideal. I mean, obviously you'd prefer to have police or riot control. So look, I think it's clear that the situation is not, is not perfect and has challenges and perhaps has many mistakes were made. And I think in the end of the day it would be better probably to have more, you know, More media down there and more eyes on what's happening because you want to get confirmation. And if there, if there are people are being killed, it behooves Israel to do a better job. I understand the IDF has tried now to reorganize the routes that lead to the GHF sites. They've put in signs, they closed off roads. Well, that's great. Again, you would think, okay, but they probably should have done that weeks ago. So there's a learning curve involved. And, and it's taking, it's taking time. And one, the criticism probably should be, well, it should have gone faster. And the chaos was predictable. I mean, if you're giving out a million meals a day and the only way for people to get them is to run and grab the box, you know, you're going to end up with chaos.

[Mike Baker]

Right now we've certainly seen another difficult and challenging environments where you, you've got a distribution going on. So it's not unique just to Gaza, but obviously it's. It's on a very sort of staggering scale. I want to circle back to a different element of all of this. When Prime Minister Netanyahu talks about destroying Hamas down to its foundations and eliminating Hamas, is that even doable?

[Seth Franzman]

Yes, I think so. I covered the war in isis, and I'll tell you that ISIS controlled a huge swath of Iraq in Syria. And in October of 2016, ISIS had been beaten back in Iraq. Iraq, and just controlled an area of Mosul, basically, which is a big city, about 2 million people. It's probably bigger than Gaza, actually, that area. And the Iraqi army surrounded them. And it took the Iraqi army nine months to get rid of ISIS street by street. And what the Iraqi army did successfully was they got all the civilians out, then they just totally destroyed this group. It took a lot of time. You can defeat terrorist groups, you can defeat terrorist ideologies, you can defeat all these things. It doesn't, of course, mean that it completely disappears. ISIS still exists, so does Al Qaeda or whatever, but, you know, it's not. Al Qaeda and ISIS are not what they work. So the evidence shows you can do it. Sometimes it takes a lot of work or a lot of things get destroyed and people sometimes suffer. But I think there's no doubt Hamas can be totally erased from the, from a lot of the landscape there and maybe preserved as some sort of other smaller political group or whatever. But it's. When they hold hostages, it's pretty hard to do that.

[Mike Baker]

It just seems, I guess I keep coming back around to this same Issue. It, it, it seems incompatible with talk of, of a ceasefire when, you know, the stated objective is to the destruction of, of Hamas and Hamas's stated objective is not to be destroyed. Pretty simple. Then I guess I'm kind of asking you this speculative question. Where do you think this is going? Is, is a ceasefire possible or is just this going to be a continuing conflict that runs for the foreseeable future?

[Seth Franzman]

No, I think, look, I think Netanyahu feels that he's got a win with the Iranian thing, which is always something he always wanted to defeat, was the Iranians. And it's, it looks like a big win. So he can basically say, look, I did that and Trump can basically come in and say, I'm going to, I need to get, get the Gaza ceasefire. So Trump can get a win as well. And I think actually it's possible that between the two of them, they might find a way to make this work. Of course, as you noted, it means that the, you know, what, what were the goals accomplished? I think Israel has always said it wants the hostages back and it wants to defeat, you know, the military and government capabilities of Hamas. Well, that's kind of a general thing. You could say that Hamas is 95% defeated and you could, you could say, okay, that's 95% good and let's wait and see. So I assume it's possible. I think they can get this done. Israelis are tired of war, A lot of people are tired of war. And everyone, I think a lot of people acknowledge there's diminishing returns in Gaza.

[Mike Baker]

So what does that look like then?

[Gordon Chang]

If you.

[Mike Baker]

Okay, let's imagine, let's be optimistic. It's not my usual position in life, but let's do that and say that we get a ceasefire, which you call it 60 day ceasefire, and that gives chance for negotiations. What do you, based on all your experience, what do you, what do you imagine that then government in Gaza would look like? Do you think there is a chance that. Because if a Hamas is still there, right, they're not, they're, you know, they're not going to give up some level of control willingly. So that means you've got what, a coalition of Hamas, possibly the, the Palestinian, you know, Liberation Authority or the, or, sorry, the, the, the pa. And you've got perhaps a consortium of regional actors that are somehow serving as an advisory board. Where does this go?

[Seth Franzman]

I think that's very, I think you're right. You played on something that's very tough. It's not, it's Hamas. What's left of Hamas in Gaza is just a bunch of thugs and gangs and murderers. So we're not talking about a lot of leadership there. Now, could the Qataris who host Hamas political leadership parachute in one of the political leaders to say, okay, I'm going to come in here and there will be a technocratic government? I think it would be very difficult. The Gulf countries that have talked about wanting to get Hamas out, they don't have a lot of experience running a chaotic place. And the Gulf countries, by the way, it's not because they haven't been involved. They have been involved in Yemen, Libya and Sudan, countries like the uae, for instance. And generally it's not been a success story in terms of governance. So they will have a, they will face a big challenge, you know, waving a magic wand and having something work out in Gaza.

[Mike Baker]

Well, you know, Seth, I've got, I got a couple more pages of questions for you, but we are basically out of time at this point. So I'm hoping that when we call you back, you'll pick up the phone and you'll agree to show up again even though you're, you're in Jerusalem. It's after midnight. And I understand I can actually now officially wish you a happy birthday as well.

[Seth Franzman]

Well, thank you very much, Seth Bransman.

[Mike Baker]

Remember, pick up his book the October 7th War. All right, coming up next, a Chinese spy ring targeting U.S. navy bases. That's me looking shocked. Two nationals accused of working for Beijing's intel service and trying to recruit American troops. Gordon Chang, he'll join us with the details. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, one of America's greatest holidays and of course I'm Talking about the 4th of July is right around the corner. And frankly, it's right on our doorstep. Just look at the calorie. I'm telling you the truth. And this Independence Day, look, do your family and your friends a favorite fire up that grill? Of course you're going to fire up the grill and declare your freedom from average grocery store beef, right? You want the best beef for that grill, you got to go to Try Tails Beef. Now, Dry Tails is a real Texas family run ranch. It's not some corporate meat factory. They raise pasture, raised grain, finished Black Angus cattle, and they ship it straight from their ranch to your door. It's that simple. There's no middlemen. There's no shrink wrap nonsense. Just real American beef from folks who still believe in doing things the right way. And right now, when you order their freedom box, they'll throw in a free rib eye look, it's officially grilling season. You know that. So do it right with Tritails beef. Go to tribe beef.com PDB that's tribe.com PDB tritails because you and your family now, you deserve the best. When you hear Lululemon, you probably think of Align yoga pants.

[Gordon Chang]

Weightlessly soft, like you're wearing next to nothing.

[Shopify Representative]

That's why you see them in class.

[Mike Baker]

At the grocery store and in the park. But did you know about skirts with built in liner shorts so you can.

[Shopify Representative]

Still jump for the Frisbee and tanks and bodysuits with Align's iconic stretch, you.

[Mike Baker]

Won'T want to take it off. And with endless style options, you don't have to shop in store or [e-mail] this episode is brought to you by Blink, an Amazon company. Think you're ready for prime day? With up to 50% off Blink Smart Security, you will be. With crisp HD video, real time alerts and two way talk, you'll know the moment your packages arrive. Save big on Blink Smart Security Starting at just $19.99 with the Blink Mini 2 plug in camera shop now at Amazon.com blink welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Now a major espionage case here at home in the US Two Chinese nationals have been arrested and charged with acting as illegal agents for Beijing's Ministry of State Security. That's China's top foreign intelligence service. The Justice Department says that once Chen, a resident of Oregon, and Liren Lai, who arrived in Houston on a tourist visa this past April, were working to collect intel on U. S. Navy personnel and military bases. Now the two also allegedly tried to recruit service members and facilitated a cash dead drop. That's a espionage term, by the way, on behalf of Chinese intelligence. It's a reminder that China's spy efforts aren't just abroad. They're happening right here on American soil and have for decades. Joining us now is Gordon G. Chang. He's the author of Plan Red China's Project to Destroy America. You can follow him on x@ Gordon, GJ Gordon, thank you very much for coming back here on the situation report.

[Gordon Chang]

Well, thank you very much, Mike, and.

[Mike Baker]

Happy 4th and to you too. And to you too. Well, I guess first of all, let's, let's talk about this espionage case. I guess you're shocked to learn that the Chinese intel apparatus may be engaged in shenanigans.

[Gordon Chang]

Well, certainly, you know, China conducts probably the most extensive operations against the United States by far. I mean, if we just listen to what FBI former FBI director Christopher Wray said when he was still there, it is actually shocking how much the Chinese have been penetrating the United States in the sense that we're also being overwhelmed. The FBI he mentioned was being overwhelmed. Local law enforcement was being overwhelmed. He was just overwhelmed by, by all of this. And so that's one thing, but the other thing that I'm shocked at is that these two agents are being charged with espionage. No, they're being charged with being foreign agents and not notifying the Attorney General, which means that they can get 10 years in prison and a $250,000 fine, which strikes me as being a little bit light considering the grievous harm that they were planning against the United States. So I would like to see that these penalties be upped against those who are committing espionage, whether they're being charged with espionage or something else.

[Mike Baker]

Why, why do you think that is? Why, why that approach from the administration?

[Gordon Chang]

Because it's easy to prove, I think. And so therefore they don't have to go through and explain how they found out about this stuff. So I think it's from, just from an internal law enforcement point of view that is much easier to prove not being a, not registering with the Attorney General.

[Mike Baker]

Okay, now that there's, there's logic in that and I guess if what you're looking for is, there's a quick conclusion, but I don't know that it's, it ultimately is the most effective way to conduct a counterintelligence investigation or operation. Look, I will say, Gordon, one of the first things I did all those years ago back when I was with the, with the Agency, was to deal with a young fellow who had come over to the US from China and who turned out to be a part of the play intel apparatus and was just simply a student here in the States. I going to school, a grad school, very good grad school. And that was a long time ago. I because, because I wouldn't pass as a grad student anymore at this point. But my point being is that they didn't care what, at that point, what he did, this was a long term investment, right? The idea was get very good grades and get a good job, but they didn't really care where that job would be. Right. The idea was just get a job and then maybe you get a follow on job. Maybe that one's at Raytheon, maybe that one's at IBM, maybe it's at Lockheed Martin. Right? And then just keep going. You're looking at a 30 to 40 plus year investment that they're willing to do. And that was one individual in their apparatus, in their machine. So I guess my point being, there is I saw this latest issue with this espionage case, and I thought to myself, nothing changes, right? And we talk about how we can change their behavior, possibly the behavior of the Chinese regime and their attitude towards theft of economic intelligence and research and development. Do you think there's any chance under the current regime that they would actually disengage from that sort of behavior?

[Gordon Chang]

Not really. And that means what we have to do is to sever China's links with China. We've got to get the Communist Party's outpost out of our country. So as a practical matter, that means closing their four consulates. It also means stripping down the embassy staff in Washington down to next to nothing. It means getting rid of state banks, state enterprises, going after Confucius Institutes, what's left of them, especially the Confucius classrooms in the secondary schools. We just have to sever these links because, you know, as Christopher Wray correctly said, they are overwhelming us, and we don't have the resources to effectively stop this. So in those circumstances, what we need to do is just get the Chinese regime out of America. It's a drastic solution that people might think. But the point is, right now, after ignoring this problem for so long, we need drastic solutions because we've got to save our country, Mike. It's really down to that. We got to save our country.

[Mike Baker]

Look, I. I don't disagree that we have to take really aggressive, proactive measures, right? If. Because I. I don't think there's any chance we change their behavior. Right. That we talked about that for decades. It's not going to happen. You need to do is, you need to be more aggressive and proactive in mitigating the risk and the opportunities that they have. But on the pragmatic side, I don't see that happening. I don't see us disengaging from them to that degree. I mean, maybe, okay, shutting down Confucius Centers, but. But that point where you start getting down to skeletal staffs and their embassies, their consulates. So what other options are there, do you think?

[Gordon Chang]

Well, first of all, I didn't say this is what we were going to do. I was saying this is what we have to do. You know, sometimes the necessary and the practical are not the same. Um, but what happens in these circumstances, and this is, this is how this probably will work out. You know, the Chinese will kill some American servicemen or service women, and then we're going to say, oh my God, how'd this happen? And then we're going to do those things that I talked about. So I would like us to do those things before the Chinese kill any more Americans. So it is, that's just the way the world works, you know, democracies. And this goes all the way back to Tocqueville writing about the America. So we're talking almost a couple hundred years. Tocqueville talked about how democracies are very, very slow to mobilize. And that's generally been true. You know, we've seen that, for instance, in the 20th century. We're certainly seeing it now. And, and that's one of the weaknesses of our form of governance. I'm not saying we should change it, but I'm saying that that's the way democracies operate. And it makes democracies very vulnerable until they mobilize. Once democracies mobilize, there's no more effective nation on earth than a democracy, which is enraged. But until that happens, I'm very concerned about what the Chinese will continue to do to us.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, no, they, I, I take your point. Look, they've, they've been very good over the years at using our openness, right, Using, using our freedoms against us. I mean, you could argue in a sense, it's not, you know, apples to apples, but you could argue it's, it's what the Islamic extremists have done, what the terrorists have done over the years. Right, right. Understanding that we live in this open society, we value it. And so they've been able to adapt and insert themselves into that environment to their benefit. But with, with the, let's, if we just focus on, I want to stay on this issue of espionage for, for just a little bit longer. I've seen over the years just a wide variety of, of explanations trying to say how much it's cost America over the years. And I'm talking specifically about the Chinese regime's efforts to steal intelligence, economic information, research and development? Have you ever settled on facts, numbers, specifics that talk about the cost of that to the US over the years?

[Gordon Chang]

When John Radcliffe was finishing up his term as Director of National Intelligence, he wrote an op ed for the Wall street journal. This was December 2020. And he talked hundreds of billions of dollars. He said perhaps as much as $500 billion a year. And that is consistent with estimates that we've heard, for instance, from leaders of the nsa. They talk about that half trillion dollar figure, you know, of course we don't know, but that is the number that is floating around down Washington. And I think that that probably is not a bad number when you start to think about the real value of what the Chinese are able to steal year in and year out. So that's the working, that's the working figure that I think people should start out with.

[Seth Franzman]

Yeah.

[Mike Baker]

And I, I think it's, I mean, I've heard similar numbers and I, I remember Ratcliffe writing that piece and I, and I, and I, I don't disagree with it. And people ask and they look at that number, they think it's staggering. But you're talking about a variety of things here. You're talking about the damage done to companies that have had proprietary data stolen. You're talking about opportunity costs because you know that research and development gets into the Chinese regime's hands. Now that opportunity is not in the US A company doesn't start jobs don't get created, whatever it may be. So there's a variety of elements that go into trying to calculate that number for what it has cost. And I think it's important for people just to understand that so they understand why this is such an important issue when approaching dealings with the Chinese regime.

[Gordon Chang]

Yes. You know, any number above zero is unacceptable. And, and we just, we, we're at a number where it is, it's, it's taking a real toll on, on our country. It's our future. You know, Lydia and I have driven through a lot of this country and we've seen some devastated towns where the factory is closed up, moved to China. And so this is a real human cost where you take away hope, you then have sentinel. Where you have sentinel, you have death. And by the way, the Chinese are the dealers of fentanyl. So the cost is not just those numbers, it's the cost in human lives. Last year, probably 48, 49,000Americans died from fentanyl poison. That's China. Year before that it was about 72,000. So I'm glad the number is going in that direction, but that toll is just staggering. And so that's, that also adds to what we're talking about.

[Mike Baker]

It's been in the spotlight quite a bit. Have you seen any discernible shift or improvement in the way that the Chinese regime has dealt with this fentanyl issue?

[Seth Franzman]

No.

[Gordon Chang]

You know, got to remember that fentanyl is a long term project of the Communist Party. So you go back to November 2023, Xi Jinping goes to Woodside, California, beats President Biden, promises to reduce the flow of fentanyl precursors and pill presses across the Pacific. Biden touts that as a great victory. But we got to remember it was the same Xi Jinping who made essentially the same promise to President Trump in 2018. And it's the same Xi Jinping who has made the same promise to President Obama in 2016. So, you know, now we have the Chinese again talking about the same things. This is long term Communist Party project, so we've got to put it into that category. And we can't assume that we can talk them out of it, which is, I think, wrong. I think President Trump has the right approach. 20% tariffs on fentanyl, on China for fentanyl. But instead of 20%, this should be 2000% because we cannot trade human lives, lives for, for money.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, it was the same Xi Jinping also who stood next to President Obama and promised to, you know, stop the cyber shenanigans and cyber attacks. Of course, that didn't work out either.

[Gordon Chang]

He doubled down and he also, that was 2015. He all that Xi Jinping said, oh, you know, we're not going to militarize these atolls and reefs in the South China Sea.

[Mike Baker]

Right, right. I want to turn the conversation to China's leader and also touch on the tariffs issue which you brought up. But first, Gordon, if you could stay right where you are. We do need to take a quick break and then we'll be back with more from Gordon Chang here on the Situation Report. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you've likely heard me talking about the upcoming BRICS Nation summit that's going to be taking place in Rio de Janeiro. Right. We are days away from what's been dubbed the Rio Reset. That's a catchy name. It's potentially the greatest threat to the US dollar's global dominance in over 80 years. Now on July 6, Brics nations, that includes Russia, China, India, Iran and and many more are expected to unveil their plans to circumvent the US Dollar. Essentially, it's an attempt to crater the dollar. Look, they've already been laying the groundwork. Their central banks have been methodically divesting from the US Dollar and, and US Bonds in favor of gold. So you ask yourself, how can you protect your hard earned dollar Savings and your IRA or your 401k from the fallout from this potential landmark shift? Well, I'm glad you asked that question. Well, one answer could be to diversify with gold from Birch Gold Group. Look, historically gold has been a safe haven in times of high uncertainty. And I think you could call the current times uncertain. Get a free information kit on tax sheltered gold IRAs by texting the word PDB to 989898. July 6th marks a potentially monumental shift among nations that frankly control one third of the world's gdp. So arm yourself with information on how to diversify your retirement savings. Text PDB to the number 989898 and claim your free information kit from Birch Gold.

[Shopify Representative]

Living with schizophrenia isn't easy, especially when you're not getting relief from some of your symptoms. It can be hard when you're still dealing with symptoms like hearing voices or seeing things that aren't there, and negative symptoms like feeling unmotivated or avoiding social situations. If this sounds familiar, it might be time to talk to your healthcare provider and explore a different kind of schizophrenia treatment. Discover your [e-mail] at Capella University. Learning online doesn't mean learning alone. You'll get support from people who care about your success, like your enrollment counselor who gets to know you and the goals you'd like to achieve. You'll also get a designated academic coach who's with you throughout your entire program. Plus, career coaches are available to help you navigate your professional goals. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn [e-mail].

[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again is good friend of the show Gordon Chang. Now you can follow Gordon on X at Gordon G. Chang, and I recommend strongly that you do it. Gordon. We finished up the last segment by starting to talk about Xi Jinping, China's leader. This is a an interesting question that I think is just now starting to surface in some areas. There's been some notable absences on the the public scene from Xi Jinping recently. And then of course there was the talk about okay, now it's confirmed he's not going to the brics summit on 6 July in Rio de Janeiro. And so there's some rumors that are starting to surface about his grip on power. What do you think?

[Gordon Chang]

I think that Xi Jinping has lost a substantial amount of influence and this is especially clear in the People's Liberation Army. His number one loyalist in the military was General Hu Weidong, number two uniformed officer, a vice chairman of the Communist Party Central military commission. Now, General, he has not been seen in public since March 11th and there are rumors that he was suicided at a military hospital in Beijing in May. We don't know about those rumors, but we do know that General, he has just disappeared which means did Xi Jinping sack his own guy? And a lot of people think that the seed actually did that, but I don't think that that's really that credible. And the reason is that since July 9th of last year, there were three articles in PLA Daily, which is the main propaganda organ of the Chinese military. Those articles praised quote, unquote collective leadership. That's a direct slap at Xi Jinping's one man style of rule. Those articles could not have been written if Xi Jinping were in control of the military, simple as that. There is information that the authors of those three articles are generally aligned with General Zhang Yao Shao, who is the number one vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and then China's number one uniformed officer who is known to be adverse to Xi Jinping. There's been a lot of other flag officers who were thought to be aligned with China's leader who have now been also disappeared. So there's a big cast of characters of Xi Jinping loyalists who are no longer operating.

[Mike Baker]

That's a very sort of serious statement that he's lost control of the military. Can you expand on that?

[Gordon Chang]

I believe, and this is just trying to see what we know objectively and trying to fit that in with other things that we know about the way the Chinese military operates, that it reached a tipping point. Maybe we need a little context. You know, Xi Jinping was responsible for purging a large number of officers from the Chinese military, ostensibly for corruption, but really because these were officers who didn't support Xi Jinping or who were aligned with other factions. Then we had of course, the, the substantial restructuring of the Chinese military beginning in the middle of, let's say 2015 or so. And Xi Jinping was able to use that to also control officer selection. So there was a lot of people who see is put in place, but that also means there's a lot of people that Xi Jinping has disadvantaged. And I think that what's happened in my sense is that there was just enough was enough. And General Zhang Yang Shao just basically said look, we, we're done with this. I don't think that you can say that Xi Jinping controls the military when the most powerful person in the military is known to be unfriendly towards China's leader. As I said, we're, we have to sort of extrapolate a little bit, but that is, that's the most consistent explanation with the facts that we know.

[Mike Baker]

So if, if we, if we take that and then kind of advance it a little Bit further. What does that mean in the. In the short term? I mean, what could we expect to see in the top tier there in China's leadership?

[Gordon Chang]

I think that we. Well, let me give you the range of rumors, and then we can sort of sort through. The range of rumors are Xi Jinping is going to lose formally his military and other civilian posts in August. In other words, he's no longer to be General Secretary of the Communist Party. He's no longer going to be chairman of the party's central military Commission. He's no longer going to be state president. That's one end of the spectrum. Other people believe that he will be kept on, but only formally, that he will basically become a figurehead. Other people believe that he will remain more than a figurehead, but he will basically be substantially weakened. And other people say he's as strong as ever. So there's a wide range of opinion. But when we see what's happening among civilians, we see the changes in propaganda. We see, for instance, Xi Jinping not going to the bricks. We have to say something is up. We may not know the full extent of what is up, but clearly the regime is unstable. Now, one other thing that is that we should keep in mind, and that is Xi Jinping is a strong man. And both Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, the first two leaders in the People's Republic, were strong men. And they were exiled or they were sidelined many times in each of their careers, and they came back. So Xi Jinping could come back. But if we're talking about this week, I think that Xi Jinping is very weakened and that he is fighting for his political life.

[Mike Baker]

Is it more important for him to hold the military or to hold the civilian leadership?

[Gordon Chang]

It's the guys with the guns that are the most important. As Mao Zedong famously said, it's the guys. Well, he. He said the. The party controls the guns, but in this case, the party's not controlling the guns. It's the guns that really matter. So if Xi Jinping were able to control the military, then he could pretty much determine what to do on civilian stuff. And matter of fact, some of the more interesting rumors, and these are just rumors, I'm not standing behind them. But the more interesting rumors are that General Zhang has actually been interviewing civilians for the next post of General Secretary of the Communist Party, and that one of them, a leading candidate, was actually set to the sidelines because that leading candidate would not agree to allow the Chinese military to control itself and was not willing to agree to specific increases in the Chinese military budget. This is fascinating. If it's true, it means that General Zhang is the most powerful figure in China at this moment. As I said, I'm not standing behind this rumor, but it shows you what could very well be the case. And it certainly explains my answer to you about why it's more important for Xi Jinping to control the military than it is for him to control an unruly bunch of civilians.

[Mike Baker]

What about this, this failure to appear at the BRICS summit, You know, what do you read into that? The reasoning behind not attending. And how important is that in terms of the BRICS nations going forward?

[Gordon Chang]

The regime says that Xi Jinping is not going to Brazil because he's already met President Lula de Silva of Brazil twice this year, doesn't need to see him again. That to me is just not credible. And the reason is the BRICs are more than just Brazil. And so this is something that's important because Xi Jinping has never missed a BRICS summit in the past. And it's really important for the BRICS because the most powerful nation in that grouping is China. So this really puts a damper on brics. And by the way, Xi Jinping not being there makes India so much more important in that gathering. The EYE in brics, India. Now, the EYE in BRICS has made that organization ineffective as at least an anti Western grouping because Prime Minister Narendra Modi doesn't want to be part of an anti Western effort. So if you're having a BRICS summit where you're going to have Bodhi and no Xi Jinping, it really neuters brics.

[Mike Baker]

Okay.

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah.

[Mike Baker]

You know, Putin is also, it's kind of, they've been slapped twice now. The, I mean, the summit has, because Vladimir Putin is also not attending. Now his reasons for not attending. He doesn't want to get arrested. He's got the ICC out, out for him. And, and so there's this issue of, you know, can he or can he not travel without being arrested? So I find the, I, I find the absence of Xi Jinping from the BRICS summit to be much more fascinating and, and interesting if, if you were a betting man, Gordon, what's the shelf life on Xi Jinping?

[Gordon Chang]

I think, and this is just a guess, he will be kept on as a figurehead because it would be too disruptive for the regime to formally remove him. So he will remain in his formal post, but he will not be a, he not be exercising real power. So I think by the end of this year, we will have an effective leader of China without those formal posts.

[Mike Baker]

Guy well, I've just, I've just made a note of that, and so we won't put any money on it, but that is a fascinating statement, Gordon. Listen, I got a bunch more questions here for you, but I'm going to have to save those for the next time if you're willing to come back on the Situation Report. Gordon Chang, you can follow him again on X at Gordon G. Chang, I, I highly recommend that you do if you want to know what's happening in China and the surrounding region. So listen, again, thank you. You're, you're a terrific friend of the show. We appreciate your insight as always. Well, that's all the time we have for this week's PDB Situation Report. All right? If you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, just reach out to me at pdb@thefirst tv.com. you know what we do with them, right? Every week, Carl the mailman shows up and he drops off a big bag of postcards and, and faxes and notes and memos. And then we take your best questions and your comments and we smush them all together into a monthly episode that we call Ask Me Anything. We're right now getting ready to launch the One for July because, as you might have guessed, we're into July now. Listen finally to to hear the podcast of the show ad free. It's relatively simple. All you have to do is become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker, and until next time, you know the drill.

[Gordon Chang]

Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.