Podcast Summary: The President's Daily Brief Episode: PDB Situation Report | June 21st, 2025: Does Israel Really Need U.S. Involvement In Iran? & The Islamic Regime Teeters
Host: Mike Baker
Release Date: June 21, 2025

Introduction

In this compelling episode of The President's Daily Brief, hosted by former CIA Operations Officer Mike Baker, listeners are immersed in the current geopolitical tensions surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict. Titled "Does Israel Really Need U.S. Involvement In Iran? & The Islamic Regime Teeters," the episode delves deep into Israel's ongoing military campaign against Iran, the potential for regime change within Iran, and the broader implications for regional stability and U.S. foreign policy.

Israel's Military Campaign Against Iran

Mike Baker opens the discussion by outlining the critical situation:

"It's been just over a week since Israel launched its campaign against Iran, and at this point, Israel controls the skies. Iran's nuclear facilities, missile launch platforms, and top military leaders have all come under sustained attack."
(01:12)

Interview with Retired IDF Major General Yakov Amador

Yakov Amador, a retired IDF Major General and former National Security Advisor for Israel, provides an in-depth analysis of Israel's military objectives and strategies.

1. Objectives of the Operation

When asked about Israel’s goals, General Amador clarifies:

"The goal is destroying the ability of Iran to produce military nuclear capability. We don't want to have Iran with a bomb and we will do whatever is needed to prevent Iran from having this bomb."
(02:42)

He emphasizes that the primary targets are Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile stockpiles, rather than seeking regime change:

"The goals of the war are very clear... regime change in Iran may no longer be a hypothetical, but we cannot impose a regime. It's too big. The Iranians will have to make the decision whom they want to be their rulers."
(04:55)

2. U.S. Involvement

General Amador discusses the extent of U.S. involvement, highlighting technological and defensive support:

"Americans can do it with B52 and B2... The war itself is conducted by Israel, only Israelis. Americans are helping in the defensive side."
(05:28)

He notes the critical role of American technology in Israel’s defense systems, particularly the Arrow missile defense system:

"There are two batteries of STA in Israel integrated to our Arrow 2 and 3 systems, intercepting the incoming missiles, with about 25-30% interceptions managed by American soldiers."
(06:00)

3. Missile Defense Efficacy

Addressing concerns about diminishing interception rates:

"The Arrow intercepting ballistic missiles has an 80% success rate, which is within our expectations. It's a different challenge compared to the Iron Dome."
(07:48)

4. Intelligence and Damage Assessments

When probing the reliability of intelligence and damage assessments, General Amador responds:

"We have pretty good BDA because if you destroy something completely, you see it burning and you know how many missiles were yielded."
(10:39)

5. Potential for Regime Change

The conversation shifts to the possibilities of regime change in Iran:

"The regime may remain strong if there’s no organized opposition, but without nuclear capability and missiles, it’s a regime we don’t intend to fight against."
(17:23)

He underscores the complexity of imposing regime change, asserting that it must originate from within Iran:

"We cannot make the change. The change should be done by the Iranians."
(04:55)

6. Targeting Military Leadership

General Amador explains the strategic importance of decapitating Iran's military leadership:

"Decapitating the military leadership makes the decision-making process problematic for Iran’s rulers."
(19:19)

7. Timing of the Conflict

Discussing the reasons behind the timing of the operation:

"It was the perfect storm... the collapse of the regime in Syria gave us a huge opportunity. The Iranian timetable to escalate their missile program made it imperative to act."
(28:43)

Potential for Regime Change in Iran

As the episode progresses, Mike Baker shifts the focus to the broader implications of Iran’s weakening regime.

Interview with Former U.S. Senator Bob Torricelli

Bob Torricelli, a former U.S. Senator and advocate for Iranian reform, offers his insights on the possibility and consequences of regime change in Iran.

1. Expansion of Objectives Beyond Military Goals

Senator Torricelli observes a shift in Israeli objectives:

"We are on the verge of something broader, building upon the enormous economic pressure and political instability... entering into regime change to eliminate the ayatollah and the government."
(35:06)

2. Historical Context and Regional Reactions

He draws parallels with past regime changes, noting the complexities and potential backlash:

"Regime change in Libya backfired. Regime change even in Iraq backfired. But in many ways, our attempts have also made the world better."
(51:36)

3. Role of the IRGC

Discussing the Iranians Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Torricelli highlights their entrenchment in every facet of Iranian life:

"The IRGC is like the Nazi Gestapo... they own means of production, real estate, a nation within the nation."
(43:05)

He emphasizes the difficulty of dislodging such a deeply embedded organization:

"The IRGC will not give up power gently. They have the responsibility to keep the regime going and suppress any opposition."
(44:50)

4. Viability of Opposition Forces

Torricelli assesses the strength of opposition groups like the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK):

"The MEK and other opposition groups have the resources, will, and expertise to govern Iran, but not through armed invasion. They would need to take control through widespread civil unrest and economic collapse."
(52:41)

5. Potential Outcomes and Uncertainties

Acknowledging the unpredictability of regime change outcomes:

"I have no idea how this will play out. It could happen over five days or ten years. The pressure accumulates, and people will eventually rebel."
(57:14)

6. Regional Implications

He touches on how neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and Jordan may react to a collapsing Iranian regime:

"There would be fireworks... Monarchies live in fear of fundamentalism, and a weakened Iran could unleash regional instability."
(48:42)

7. Optimism and Caution

Despite the risks, Torricelli remains cautiously optimistic about the long-term benefits of regime change:

"In many cases, our attempts to change governments have also made the world better. We need to think more broadly than our recent experiences."
(51:36)

Conclusion

Mike Baker wraps up the episode by reflecting on the complex interplay between military action, intelligence accuracy, and the potential for significant political shifts within Iran. The discussions with General Amador and Senator Torricelli highlight the multifaceted nature of the conflict, the critical role of U.S. support in Israel’s operations, and the uncertain path forward concerning Iran's regime.

"Stick around. As Israel strikes batter Tehran and the regime reels well, many are asking will Iran's people take back their country?"
(33:01)

The episode underscores the delicate balance between achieving immediate military objectives and contemplating the broader geopolitical ramifications of destabilizing a major regional power like Iran. Listeners are left with a nuanced understanding of the stakes involved and the unpredictable future that lies ahead.

Notable Quotes:

• General Amador:
  "The goal is destroying the ability of Iran to produce military nuclear capability." (02:42)
  "The war itself is conducted by Israel, only Israelis. Americans are helping in the defensive side." (05:28)

• Senator Torricelli:
  "The IRGC is like the Nazi Gestapo... they own means of production, real estate, a nation within the nation." (43:05)
  "In many cases, our attempts to change governments have also made the world better." (51:36)

This episode of The President's Daily Brief offers a profound exploration of one of the most pressing international issues of our time, providing listeners with expert analyses and thoughtful perspectives on the future of Middle Eastern geopolitics.