PDB Situation Report | June 28th, 2025: How Israeli Intelligence Crushed Iran & Trump’s Global Power Test

Summary

Podcast Summary: The President's Daily Brief | June 28th, 2025

Episode Title: PDB Situation Report | June 28th, 2025: How Israeli Intelligence Crushed Iran & Trump’s Global Power Test
Host: Mike Baker, Former CIA Operations Officer
Release Date: June 28, 2025

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Introduction

In this pivotal episode of The President's Daily Brief, host Mike Baker delves into the recent conclusion of the Israel-Iran conflict, highlighting the critical role of Israeli intelligence in shaping the war's outcome. The discussion extends to the broader implications of President Trump's strategies on global power dynamics, featuring insightful interviews with key experts.

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Ending the Israel-Iran War: The Intelligence Edge

Mike Baker opens the episode by announcing the official end of the war between Israel and Iran earlier that week. Contrary to common perceptions that the conflict was primarily driven by conventional military might, Baker emphasizes the decisive role of Israeli intelligence in tipping the scales.

Key Points:

• Intelligence Operations: Baker explains that Mossad's extensive intelligence groundwork, including embedding collaborators within Iran, mapping air defenses, and tracking key IRGC commanders, was instrumental in executing surgical strikes that crippled Iran's military capabilities.

• Covert Tactics: Covert drone bases were established deep within Iran, with drone components smuggled incrementally, enabling precise and effective military actions from afar.

Notable Quote:

• “When the first strikes came, they were surgical. As you saw, air defense systems were crippled in minutes. Key targets were taken out before they could react.” — Mike Baker [02:15]

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Interview with Oded Alam: Assessing the Aftermath

Former Mossad Deputy Head of Global Operations, Oded Alam, joins Baker to provide a detailed analysis of the strikes' effectiveness and their impact on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Key Points:

• Damage Assessment Challenges: Alam discusses the difficulty in assessing the full extent of the damage, particularly at the Fordow nuclear facility, noting, “It is very difficult to assess it from aerial photos... You need to have some sort of intelligence and access inside the compound.” [03:44]

• Impact on Iran's Nuclear Program: Despite uncertainties in exact damage metrics, Alam asserts significant disruption to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, emphasizing the vulnerability of centrifuges and the time-consuming process required to replace them.

• Regime's Resilience and Future Steps: While acknowledging Iran's immediate struggle to recover, Alam underscores the necessity of continuous monitoring and strategic negotiations to prevent the rapid resurgence of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Notable Quotes:

• “Israel has a very, very precise and excellent sources of information... I trust their judgment fully and I am absolutely certain that there was considerable damage to the compounds.” — Oded Alam [05:10]

• “The Iranians are quite, I would say, devastated by the amount of damage that they hadn't predicted that was caused by Israel and the coup de grace of the United States.” — Oded Alam [07:06]

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Regime Change: A Long-Term Solution?

The conversation shifts to the contentious topic of regime change in Iran as a means to ensure lasting stability and prevent future threats.

Key Points:

• Skepticism About Negotiations: Alam expresses doubt about the effectiveness of negotiations alone, highlighting Iran’s historical non-compliance with agreements and persistent deceit regarding their nuclear program.

• Internal Dynamics: He emphasizes that genuine regime change must stem from within Iran, citing the lack of a unified national identity and the potential for internal dissent to destabilize the current regime.

• Strategic Support for Dissidents: Alam advocates for external support to empower internal movements, suggesting that facilitating organized opposition could pave the way for meaningful change.

Notable Quotes:

• “The only way to stop the Iranians from trying to recover and reach uranium or their ballistic missiles is a change of the regime.” — Oded Alam [18:00]

• “We cannot dictate from outside to the Iranian people; they have to take the fate into their own hands.” — Oded Alam [18:00]

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Trump’s "12-Day War" Strategy and Global Power Dynamics

Post-break, Baker shifts focus to President Trump’s role in brokering the ceasefire, referred to as the "12-day war," and its implications for U.S. global standing.

Key Points:

• Mix of Pressure and Diplomacy: The White House's combination of military deterrence and diplomatic pressure was pivotal in securing the truce, demonstrating a strategy of peace through strength.

• Impact on U.S. Power Perception: This approach reinforces the narrative of American resilience and strategic prowess, showcasing effective use of both hard and soft power.

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Interview with Stephen Yates: China’s Reaction and BRICS Summit Implications

Stephen Yates, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, provides analysis on how China and Russia are responding to the recent conflict and what this means for upcoming international gatherings like the BRICS summit.

Key Points:

• China’s Strategic Calculations: Yates posits that China's primary concern is maintaining its economic interests, particularly regarding energy dependence from the Gulf. The effectiveness of Israeli intelligence operations likely causes China to reassess its own strategies, especially concerning Taiwan.

• Russia’s Distanced Response: Russia, traditionally seen as a steadfast ally to Iran, exhibits reluctance to fully support Iran post-conflict, highlighted by a dismissive comment from Putin emphasizing the presence of Russian Jews in Israel and Russia’s own diplomatic priorities.

• BRICS Summit Dynamics: The anticipated BRICS summit could showcase shifting alliances and diminished momentum for the group's multipolar ambitions, especially if key players like China choose not to attend or reassess their commitments.

Notable Quotes:

• “If you're atop of the PLA, you'd say, well, shoot, that means it doesn't really matter whether the United States is close.” — Stephen Yates [51:24]

• “We have changed the course of things dramatically. It doesn't really matter right now if we eliminated the 400 kilos or we did not.” — Oded Alam [28:37]

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Conclusion

The episode concludes with reflections on the significant shifts in regional power structures and the reaffirmation of U.S. influence on the global stage. Baker and his guests underscore the importance of intelligence, strategic alliances, and proactive diplomacy in navigating complex international conflicts. The discussions highlight a unique moment in history where effective intelligence operations and decisive leadership have reshaped geopolitical landscapes, setting the stage for future diplomatic and strategic engagements.

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Key Takeaways

• Intelligence as a Decisive Factor: The success in ending the Israel-Iran war underscores the critical role of intelligence operations in modern conflicts.

• Challenges of Regime Change: Achieving regime change in Iran requires internal catalyst and strategic external support, beyond mere military intervention.

• Global Power Shifts: The reactions of China and Russia to the conflict reveal underlying tensions and potential recalibrations in international alliances and strategies.

• U.S. Strategic Positioning: The Trump administration's approach demonstrates a blend of strength and diplomacy, reinforcing U.S. leadership amid evolving global dynamics.

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For more detailed insights and ongoing analysis, subscribe to The President's Daily Brief podcast available on all major platforms.

Transcript

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[Joe]

Welcome to the PDB situation report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First up, the war between Israel and Iran officially came to an end earlier this week. Perhaps you heard about it, but the outcome wasn't shaped by firepower alone. It was Israel's intelligence apparatus that helped tip the scales. Oded Alam, he's Mossad's former deputy head of global operations. He'll join us for more on that later in the show. The war may have been fought with missiles, drones and jets, but it was ended with a mix of hard and soft power from the White House. The Heritage Foundation's Stephen Yates, good friend of the show, stops by to look at how the Trump administration brought the conflict to a close and what that strategy tells us about US Power in the world today. But first, today's Situation report Spotlight Now. The war may have played out in the skies over Tehran, but its outcome was shaped long before the first missile was fired. Years of intelligence groundwork laid by Mossad gave Israel a decisive edge. Reports say Mossad embedded dozens of local collaborators inside Iran, mapping air defenses, identifying nuclear scientists, and tracking senior IRGC commanders. Covert drone bases were built deep inside Iranian territory, and drone components were smuggled in piece by piece, sometimes in suitcases. So when the first strikes came, they were surgical. As you saw, air defense systems were crippled in minutes. Key Targets were taken out before they could react. Now for more on this, I'm joined by Oded Alam. He's the former deputy head of global operations from Assad. Oded spent over 22 years in Israeli intelligence leading high level counterterrorism operations and global intelligence missions. Oded, thank you very much for taking the time to join us here on the Situation Report.

[Oded Alam]

Thank you for having me.

[Joe]

Where I'd like to start is an area that I know is it's, it's imperfect right now in terms of the, the intelligence because things are still developing. But I'd love to get your perspective on the, the success of the strikes to date if the objective was, let's call it twofold, the destruction of the Iranian regime's nuclear program and their ballistic missile capability. Could you talk to me about what you're seeing from the initial damage assessments?

[Oded Alam]

Regarding the initial damage assessment, it's a bit of tricky. And why is it tricky? Because in Purdue, for instance, the damage was inflicted by the bombs that were penetrating into the mountain and the explosion had almost caused some sort of a seismic, small miniature earthquake within the complex of the fordunuclear facility. But it is very difficult to assess it from aerial photos from above because the penetration was deep inside, under the mountain. It's not just normal regular BDA that you can assess by aerial photo, satellite photo and so on. You need to have some sort of intelligence and access inside the compound. And this is more difficult to do. The Iranians themselves do not have a full picture right now of the amount of damage and havoc that was inflicted on them. They are still by the way, bewildered and they have some problems in penetrating this compound just for the sake of nuclear radiation. Okay. So it's hard to say and how to assess right now. I know in percentage how much? 60, 70, 80. But I can say one thing for sure. Israel has a very, very precise and excellent sources of information, not just from aerial photos, but from ground operations. And I cannot of course elaborate on what the nature of the, of the intelligence we have seen the outcome of the Israeli intelligence and the precision and the accuracy. So if the Israeli intelligence services right now predict that there was a substantial damage caused to those installation and I'm not just talking about Urdu, I'm talking about Natanz and talking about is Pahan and I'm even talking about Iraq, I trust their judgment fully and I am absolutely certain that there was a considerable damage to the compounds. You have to remember one thing which is important. Centrifuge are very, very vulnerable And I would say cannot stand any sort of external pressure. And it's very hard to replace damaged centrifuge. It takes a long time to do it. And so this tremendous internal blow would definitely cause a considerable damage to the project.

[Joe]

Now, there's a big question.

[Oded Alam]

Have they managed to evacuate those 400 presumed kilo of enriched uranium to 60% grade beforehand, or is it buried under the rubbles? Or is it maybe in Ispahan, as some say? I don't know. I don't know. I can just guess that Israeli intelligence has more knowledge than anyone else regarding that. And from the way that the Iranians are right now acting, it seems to me, you know, from my years of experience in this field that they are quite, I would say, devastated by the amount of damage that they hadn't predicted that was caused by Israel and the coup de grace of the United States. I don't think they are able right now to recover quickly. It will take time. It will take a lot of effort, a lot of energy. And I'll tell you another thing. In order to recover and to create some sort of a nuclear facility, even one or two warheads, you have to conduct series of tests in order to be certain that this thing can work. Now, those tests naturally can be very easily detected by the Israeli intelligence. So I would presume it would be quite difficult for the Iranian to mislead or hide any sort of a big leak into the nuclear. Being on a threshold of a nuclear nation. So right now it is important to monitor as much as possible all different ways and all different sources, what is going to be the next step of the Iranian. And of course, we should drag them by the ear to the negotiation table.

[Joe]

No, I think that's, and that, that kind of takes us into the next question, I suppose, because in the immediate aftermath of the, certainly of the US airstrikes and the Israeli military, obviously the air force had been having, the Israeli air force had been having remarkable success in controlling the skies, even over Tehran and taking out a variety of important and valuable targets. But after the US Strikes, obviously the big question in the immediacy of the big question was what will Iran do in terms of retaliatory strikes with that off the table, in theory, because of this initial ceasefire, then the question has become, okay, were the strikes successful in meeting those obligations? And you, I think you've laid out very logically, you know, what, what that looks like right now. And also I think the problem is we're speculating because of, of the lack of, of, of, of Human, of human intelligence and, and specifics about that damage. But given all your time running global operations for Mossad, when you look at what sort of, of, of damage we're talking about, when you're looking at their ability to reconstruct their program, what's your gut telling you based on all your experience? Because you know that's, I know that's asking you to speculate, but from what you've seen and from your experience in the past, do you think as an example, the Iranian regime was successful in moving the enriched uranium off site? Because there was a fair amount of talk about the potential for these strikes leading up to the actual strikes.

[Oded Alam]

I don't know. I really don't know. What is the answer? I think the coming days and weeks will enable us to be more accurate in our assessment. But I know one thing for sure. The Iranians capability to reach a nuclear warhead, which is not just enriched uranium, it's all the facilities of conducting the warhead, which is extremely, extremely complicated issue. It's not just, you know, you plug in two things and then there it goes. You know, I think the diminishing of these scientists and diminishing of their archive and diminishing some sites that were supposed to be sites of nuclear construction is taking the Iranians back quite a time. Well, let's say we don't stop the clock, but we definitely, we move it backwards to somewhere around 2019 where they started the big leap forward. So what is important right now is to, to have the ability, and I think we have the ability is to monitor and supervise every single step of the Iranians and react to that. I mean, we have to be proactive in the reaction, which means not allowing them under no circumstances to rebuild their infrastructure or starting to play around with this enriched uranium. What is also important is the nature of the agreements that will come with the United States regarding that. And I really hope that the Trump administration will not back off from the initial demands that they had demanded at the beginning, which applies not only to the nuclear program, but also to the use of proxies to these ballistic missile manufacturing and all of it. We should expect to have some sort of an agreement that will encompass all the layers that we are talking right now and not just the certain nuclear elements. Also, I would tell you frankly from my position, I don't care if the Iranians will enrich uranium to the grade of 2.6% in Iran, as long as it's supervised by Americans. And when I'm talking about Americans, I'm talking on the ground, not just coming back and forth, but sitting on the ground in the facility and supervising them. I don't see that as a threat. And it might be some sort of, I would say, concession to the pride of the regime. But it has to be monitored extremely careful and as I said before, it has to engulf an overall strategy of eliminating this regime being a threat to Israel and to the world.

[Joe]

Odette, I would say that up until this point, all these years, there's never been transparency with the Iranian program. And so I guess the question is, do you believe that there's some fundamental change that's resulted from this recent, let's call it the 12 day war and that's what President Trump referred to it as, and and combination of Israeli and U. S Military action. Is there some fundamental sea change in the way that Iran will approach negotiations? Because I'm not sure why we would think going in and creating another agreement we would get any different result other than the Iranian regime continuing to obfuscate and cheat and not provide 100% transparency on their program.

[Oded Alam]

You're absolutely right. And it comes to the next point which I wanted to refer to. If you remember, after the agreement in 2015, the JPCAOA immediately the Iranians started breaching this agreement. They were supposed to remove three and a half pounds of low enrichment radium out of Iran. They didn't do it. They had to supply all the documentary regarding their nuclear military nuclear program to the iaea. They didn't do it. And the Mossad had stolen their ICAB which reflected how much they were actually lying and cheating. And of course we are talking about all other hanky panky games that played with the inspectors of the iaea. I can tell you from here to eternity stories and how they are trying to deceive and lie. And so I don't believe and I don't trust them at all. The negotiation is one part. But I think the only way, the only way to stop the Iranians from trying to recover and reach uranium or their ballistic missiles is a change of the regime. There is no other alternative but a change of the regime. This is an ideological jihadist regime that is dedicated to the eradication of the Zionist entity and the west as well. We should simply listen to what they're saying and they are saying that out loud. So the only way, if we want to make sure that this will not happen again is a change of the regime. Now this is tricky because to change a regime, we've seen a lot of time Israel in America and Afghanistan and Iraq and Israel in Lebanon. When you try to change the regime externally, it's a, it's problematic. The change should come from within. But we, we could encourage, we could use a lot of, let's say Mossad tactics in order to facilitate in internal inclusion in turn debate.

[Joe]

I want to pick up on this topic. I need to take a quick break and so if you'll stay right where you are. We'll be back with Oded Alam, former deputy head of global operations for Mossad, right after this break and the situation report. Stick around.

[Mike Baker]

From around the world, Trey Yingst joining us from Tel Aviv, Israel to Washington. I'm Mike Emanuel. To your own backyard. If a story impacts you or your wallet, we're on it. It's the FOX News Rundown. We give every story the deeper look it deserves with must listen interviews and smart analysis from the voices you can trust. Start your day with a FOX News rundown. Listen and follow now at fox news rundown.com or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

[Caitlin Becker]

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[Joe]

Hey, Bill O'Reilly here, host of the no Spin News corporate media programs.

[Oded Alam]

They're often lazy and dishonest. You know that. The podcast world filled with misleading bomb throwers masking important issues that directly impact you.

[Joe]

The no Spin News is here to counteract that.

[Oded Alam]

We are a fact based, honest and unaffiliated broadcast.

[Joe]

Our purpose is to inform you and give the best assessment of the situation, whether it's political or cultural.

[Oded Alam]

Please listen to the no Spin News with me, Bill O'Reilly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever podcasts are found. Remember, trust is earned.

[Joe]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Oded Alam. He's the former deputy head of global operations for Masaki Scott. A perfect person to have on this show, given current situation. Oh, dad, thank you for, for sticking around. We were talking in the last section at the very end you mentioned what is often a very touchy, difficult subject and that's regime change. Now, based on what you're seeing and again based on all the experience that you've had over the years, do you think that that is a possibility or is that just something that is a hoped for byproduct that is not going to materialize?

[Oded Alam]

I would say one thing for sure. We are not going to see the Syrian amazing collapse of the regime in three days simply because there is no real opposition in Iran. We don't have those militias that we have seen in Italy, in the north where Erdogan just put a glue on them and tied them together and they went, they start driving their Toyota SUV towards Damascus and in three days we saw the collapse of the regime. That one happened. We have some militias in Iran, we have some in Kurdistan, we have some, the Mujahideen Khalq, which are secular militias and we have the Baluchist militia. But they are very weak and they don't have the power to overcome this regime. The turnover can be in two ways. First of all, internal coup, either by the military or the army, which in a way it's adversary to the Republican Guards or within the Republican Guards or within the entire echelon of Iran. Assuming that Khamenei is no longer possesses the power that he had before. This is one alternative and it's very feasible. And I can just imagine that there are some sort of contacts between foreign intelligence services and some prominent people within the regime. Okay. And I don't want to elaborate on that. Now the other option is of course something that comes from the internal, from the boiling reluctancy of the Iranian people toward the regime. And, and you can, we have to know the fact the Persian are only 40% of the, of the Iranian population. We're talking about around 92 million people. There are only 40%. They are Baluchistan, Azeris, whatever. You know, it's, it's not a real nation in a way that you look at America and you look at in Europe or something like that. It's some sort of a rough combination that will gather to somehow and it's volatile. It can collapse also and be disintegrated into different nation. Now I'll give you just an example of what could have happened and what should have happened. About three weeks ago there was a strike in Iran of traffic drivers. The strike was because of Fuel shortage. And it's, it's unbelievable. Iran is the second world's biggest natural gas supplier and, and so on. It engulfed around 450,000 truck drivers in 155 cities. Now they were on strike and it was a huge, huge challenge to the regime because they had hardly ways to handle it, but they ran out of money, and they ran out of money and they went back to work. Now, just imagine if there was some fund, even external fund, that could have fund this and elevate this strike in order to get more people into it. And maybe like we've seen in 2009 during the Obama period and in 2022 with the Armenian, the hijab, you know, so they need external support, but the external support cannot replace the Iranian people, which means we cannot dictate from outside to the Iranian of their pay. They have to take the faith into their own hand. But we can assist it, we can elevate it. We can help that. Not just, you know, by words of comfort and, you know, clapping hands to the bravery of the people, but more into a much more involvement. And we should, I think, work towards this goal. And it's feasible because don't you have to remember the regime now, it's in worst position since August 2, 1988, the end of Iran, Iraq war. It's weak, it's vulnerable. It penetrated instead of panic. And so we should just hit with the nail on this war in order to crack that. It won't take, it will take time. It will not be month, two months or so, and it could take time, but it's possible.

[Joe]

It's interesting because I'm old enough to remember the, the fall of the Shah, and I know from my couple of decades with the, with the agency that kind of hoping for anticipating the rise of the Iranian people, right, against the regime, against the mullahs and the IRGC has always been a little bit like the Holy Grail. We've always anticipated it could happen. We've hoped that it could happen. There's been moments, as you pointed out correctly, there's been moments in time, but it's always obviously fallen short. So I, you know, I, I guess I'm, I'm one of those people who's become very cynical over the idea that, that that may happen. And so I guess my question for you is at the end of all of this, if we look down the road a month or two from now and we have more accurate damage assessments, and right now there's a, there's a Defense Intelligence Agency report that was leaked. I'm sure you've, you've seen it was leaked to the press only a matter of a couple of days after the strikes. And it went out to the press. And admittedly it was, it's imperfect information, it's, it's early intelligence. But none of that mattered because the narrative that got out in the public was, well, these strikes, you know, were not as effective as, as the White House said they were, that they may be as little as a couple of months away from rebuilding their program. So there's that narrative that's floating out there. And I guess the, the question is to you, is, do you, do you believe that at this point, if we get a month or two down the road and the assessments are that there was damage, but that they will be able to rebuild in, let's say, a year or so and the regime hasn't changed? Do you look at that and consider it a, I hate to say this, do you look at it and consider it a failure?

[Oded Alam]

Absolutely not. I think we had caused tremendous damage we inflicted on their missile capabilities, on their status in the environment, in the ecosystem that we are in. Take a look. They have no proxies. They have no proxies. They have the Hezbollah banished, the Houthis fired two missiles. Even the Iraqi militias didn't join in. And of course Syria is gone. And on top of it, look at the, look at the stand of the, of the Chinese and the Russians. They didn't come for help and the Iranians begged for Russian help and the Russian simply stay aside. Iran is completely isolated with no actual defense system that can defend Iran. They are vulnerable to external attack and internal attack. We have changed the course of things dramatically. It doesn't really matter right now if we eliminated the 400 kilos or we did not, or it doesn't matter. You have to look at the overall picture where Iran is right now. They never been in such a situation since, as I said, since the August 24th August 1988, the end of the Iraq Iran war. And they are very, very vulnerable and they lost their, I would say their initiative in the region. Remember, they took upon themselves to spread the Shia into the Middle east and to the Western world. And remember, the Shia are only 15% of the Muslims, okay. And they become like the, you know, the, the big godfather of Islam. And they are not anymore. And this is a major and tremendous change in the region and I will see the outcome also with the moderate Sunni countries around them.

[Joe]

No, I, I agree with you 100% of that I just, I, I'm, I'm, I'm worried about the, the narrative, what gets driven out there in the media. I guess you can only worry about that so much because it's, it's, at the end of the day, I suppose it really doesn't matter all that much, but you can already see that, that there's a narrative that's building about this. So, but I couldn't agree with you more. The damage over the past year and a half and still to this day, of the proxy network that they built and trained and funded and resourced. I'm very glad that you pointed out also the reaction of the Russians and the Chinese, the fact that, that Iran is probably amazed at their lack of support. I suspect the regional actors in the area, the Saudis and others have all been privately thinking this is terrific, just finish the job. So I couldn't agree with you more that it's a, it's a unique moment in history. I guess what hangs out there is, is what will the Iranian people do with it? I've got a long list of additional questions to throw your way, oded, but we are unfortunately out of time for today. I do hope that we can get you back on THE SITUATION REPORT in the near future because your insight, your experience, very much appreciated here.

[Oded Alam]

I will be more than glad to join you again. I really enjoyed this conversation and hope to be here soon.

[Joe]

Well, that was Oded Alam, Mossad's former deputy head of global operations, right here on THE SITUATION report. Fascinating conversation. I hope you found it fascinating. Listen, coming up next, President Trump didn't start the war, but, well, he certainly helped to end it. We'll look at how a mix of pressure, deterrence and diplomacy brought what President Trump refers to as the 12 day war to a halt. Stay with us.

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[Joe]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. After nearly two weeks of war, the fighting between Israel and Iran has come to an end. The ceasefire brokered by President Trump and his team officially took hold earlier this week. And while there were a few initial violations, both sides have now stepped back from the brink. The White House applied a mix of military deterrence and diplomatic pressure to bring about the truce, making it clear to both Tehran and Jerusalem that escalation was no longer on the table. The Trump administration is already framing the outcome as a win for peace through strength, with new talks potentially on the horizon. Joining me now is Stephen Yates. He's a senior research fellow for China and National security policy at the Heritage Foundation. He previously served in the White House as deputy National Security advisor to the Vice president with a focus on global threats and strategic diplomacy. Stephen, thanks very much for joining us. Although we apparently have no global threats and no need for strategic diplomacy, so I don't know what we're going to talk about.

[Mike Baker]

I know it's a very boring world these days.

[Joe]

It is. It really is. I think it was Winston Churchill who said, may we live in interesting times. And. And we are. Listen, I'm going to start with an unusual question. It's focused on Iran and obviously the U. S. Airstrikes, but in the immediate aftermath, we've heard very little China. What do you make of the Chinese reaction and mindset towards what's happened regarding Iran?

[Mike Baker]

Well, my first assumption is that they, like most of the world, including a lot of Americans, did not realize this was actually going to happen. And I think that they were probably thrown a bit when they saw the B2s going to Guam that is getting close to the area they like to operate in. And then all of a sudden, before they really get any other news, some things Go boom, boom in Iran from another area. So a little bit of a head fake probably made them spin a bit. But they also were a little high on their own supply in giving Pakistan some weapons. And they thought that the recent skirmish between India and Pakistan saw Pakistan maybe besting some technology the Indians had. And all of a sudden the world sees that American stealth technology actually works, that we can actually have an operation without leaks. And I think that probably put a pin in one of the balloons of China is on the rise. Inevitably, the next boss on the block, America's on decline, and you better make a deal with the new boss. So I bet they had a big, big, deep breath to contemplate what just happened.

[Oded Alam]

Do you think?

[Joe]

Tell me what you think about this. I know it's speculation and, but you know me, I love to ask speculative questions. What were the chances that the China was tracking those B2s?

[Mike Baker]

Well, I think it's 100% that they were trying to, especially once, you know, I was scratching my own head when I was reading that the stealth bombers were spotted in Guam. I said, well, what's the word stealth mean? And so in retrospect, it seems obvious someone wanted them to be seen. So at the very latest, when that move was happening, they had to be trying to watch everything. There's no evidence to me that, that they did, because if they were able to track, I think there's also 100% chance they would have talked to Tehran. And if there was anything that could be done in that amount of time, I think we would have seen more activity. And very, very clearly Iran was caught off, off guard by this.

[Joe]

Talk to me, if you could, about the, the extent, the nature of the relationship between Iran and China. And then also in context with China's response in the aftermath of the attacks. Are you surprised at their reaction? Which, I mean, to me or to anybody who's not an expert on China, we look at it and go, that's pretty hands off from their perspective.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, well, yeah, because they have been giving a political narrative out to the world that, that together with Moscow and Tehran and maybe Pyongyang and a few others, they were trying to create this alternative universe that was going to be multipolar and balance against the bad Americans. And it was going to. They were going to have their own currency, be a reserve currency, all this pie in the sky stuff about what they were going to do in the world. And so if you believe that narrative and there's some truth to their trying to at least stoke those ideas, then this does look like conspicuous pulling back from someone who's supposed to be an ally getting walloped. And you're like, whoa, you're on your own. I don't really know who you are. But Iran's response by threatening to shut off the Straits of Hormuz, that was definite no go zone for China because they are still very dependent on a lot of energy from the Gulf, not just buying a lot of Iranian oil, which they have done, but from other sources too. And so my guess is that they were conveying that privately to Tehran and they, I think that they did have a national interest in there not being a wider conflict because it would have a material impact on their economic forecast. They can't be the, the manufacturing supply platform for the world without that dose of natural gas and oil from the Gulf.

[Joe]

That's really interesting because, I mean, you know, typically it's always seemed that the Chinese regime as, as been giddy anytime the US Gets mired in some sort of overseas conflict. Right, yeah. It distracts the US it uses up resources. But your point is very interesting in that on this occasion, you know, again, if you go with the theory that the regime, the Chinese regime always acts in its own best interest, they looked at it and said, well, it's not in our best interests if this thing escalates.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, well, and I think they'll still play some politics, but basically they are a chaser, not a maker in this.

[Joe]

What do you mean by that?

[Mike Baker]

So they're not driving events, they're chasing events. And so when this breaks out, number one, Israel proves capable to do nearly miraculous things to the Iranians. That has to freak the Chinese out because Israel is not a major power. Israel is not one of these poles in this balancing act that they thought they were going to try to come out on top with this multipolar world. And of course, Israel has advanced technology. They have been fighting. They know how to fight. They also know how to do real intelligence, I think stunningly effective intelligence in the way these things played out. And all of that, I think has to freak China out, because if you look at what the Ukrainians were able to do with drones deep into Russia, and then you look what the Israelis were able to do deep into Iran, not just with drones, but human intelligence placing people in vital positions. They had basically Tehran's complete playbook. And they were striking with unbelievable precision where there's just a burnt black hole in one flat, in one building, killing one top military advisor. That's the kind of stuff that creeps the Chinese out that someone could do to them at some point.

[Joe]

Yeah, I'm sorry for interrupting, Steve. You would have to imagine that it's exactly what the Chinese regime has been doing in regards to Taiwan. Right? Placing ass. Oh, yeah. You know, identifying collaborators, gathering intelligence. So, I mean, it would almost have to be a vindication of what you would assume to be their, their actions on, on the island of Taiwan over the past many years.

[Mike Baker]

Well, I agree. Unless we were on the receiving end of what do they really know where are they really placed in Taiwan? And if they look at what, what Israel was able to do and then they look at where their placements are, do they really have the full playbook? Are they really reading everything that America or others have been doing with Taiwan? Do they? And it could be. We don't, we don't really get to know this is, this is the world of spin or analysis or whatever, whatever it is that we do, Mike. But they, they probably are realizing that they don't have this good of a dial in on what Taiwan can and would do. And, and maybe Taiwan has some things tucked away that are not as easy for them to get to as, you know, like the Israelis hitting the flat of somebody that really would call the shots. Maybe they've got redundancy in their system that Tehran did not have.

[Joe]

Yeah, no, I, I take your point there. I want to pick up on that, though, in just a minute. Steve, if you'll stay right where you are. As you know, we, we do have terrific sponsors. We do need to take a break now and then for them. So stay where you are. And we'll be right back with more from Stephen Yates here on the Situation report. Stick around.

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[Joe]

Welcome back to THE Situation report. Joining me once again is good friend of the show, Steve Yates of the Heritage Foundation. Steve, we, we're talking about China's reaction, their relationship with Iran, their reaction to the, the, the aftermath of the U. S Airstrikes in Iran. And I want to take a, take a little bit of a left turn here. Now. Coming up at the beginning of July will be an important BRICS nations summit and two of the attendees at that summit will be China and Iran. Obviously Russia will be there as well and others. How interesting is that summit going to be and what do you expect to see as, as results from that series of meetings?

[Mike Baker]

Well, from some of the speculation that's out there in the press, it may be the case that China does not attend at the leader level and that it would be very interesting. It sort of falls into what you're looking at generally about China's reaction after this conflict. That and there's some stuff going on with, with Beijing where Xi Jinping has not been going out in public as much. It's leading to a lot of people to wonder about his health. Of course he was able to take a phone call or make a phone call with President Trump to talk trade or other things not that long ago. And we get a proof of life with a visiting dignitary here or there, but getting indications he might not go to that gathering. And so it does kind of again put a pin in that balloon of what is this alternative gathering? Does it have momentum? Is it on the rise or was it really, for show and politics. And with Iran situation really complicating things, maybe China doesn't want to be in a room where one of these things is not like the others, at least in their estimation. They're a big deal. And the rest of these guys, what are they? I mean, after all, I mean, Iran seems to have been crippled for now very quickly. And so what does that mean for the rest of this group? And Russia. Yeah, best friends or here for the party, for kicking the crap out of Ukraine, for whoever, however long. But really, Russia, with an overwhelming military advantage on paper, should have made fast work of this. And this is dragging on. It's, it's tragic for Ukrainians, it's probably tragic for some of Russia, but it's taking longer. So all of a sudden, this collection doesn't look like it's the winning team. And China, I don't know that it wants to be associated with that brand as much, but at least for now, I really doubt that Xi Jinping is going to be there, and I think it's going to be a little bit less of a blip in the media cycle and other things about what this group is really about.

[Joe]

Yeah, it's, it's, it's like the celebrities don't show up at your party and you get like the C and the D listers. Now. I'm glad you brought up Russia. You know, we were talking about, you know, the Chinese reaction to this, and I think, you know, sort of in a more direct manner. The Russian reaction to what's happened with Iran has been absolutely fascinating. The foreign Minister, Abbas Arachi from Iran, you know, went basically hat in hand with a letter from the Supreme Leader Khamini to, to Moscow. And you would have to imagine what they were saying is, hey, you know, what's up? I thought we were best friends.

[Mike Baker]

I was fascinated, maybe even a little surprised, too, that Putin's quick quip was, well, there's a, There's a lot of Jewish people in Russia and there's a lot of Russian Jews in Israel. And that has to weigh on, on what we do. I'm like, man, are. What's the, what's the demographics of Ukraine? I don't know, maybe there's some people there you've hit around, too, but that's a whole other topic. But he, you know, it was, it was a, it was an indirect way of saying what China and others were doing, which was, okay, you got yourself into this, and I don't think I want to be a part of it. And, like, when it comes to sanctions energy, they'll probably try to help replenish some of the supply chain. Depending on what is left of these programs and capabilities, they might play around with helping reconstitute some of the capabilities that were lost in these attacks. So I don't think they're going to leave them forever, but it was very conspicuous. It's almost like the kid on the playground or you're there with all your pals, you get punched in the face and all of a sudden there's this conspicuous distance and they're looking the other way.

[Joe]

Yeah, yeah. No, it's, it was interesting when Putin was asked about, you know, the level of support that they had been offering to the Iranians. You know, his initial reaction, aside from mentioning the number of Russian Jews in Israel, was also to say, wow, look, we, we've been, you know, vocal. We've, we've made comments of support for Iran and they go, good. So that, that is a fascinating part. How, let me, let me shift again a different direction here, Steve. How important has it been to, to China to, in a sense, sit with a bag of popcorn over the past while and watch not just the, the Russian war in Ukraine in terms of an education, but also to see what's been happening with Iran here lately and in particular the U. S. Airstrikes. How important is it for them if you have in the back of your mind what they're thinking about regarding Taiwan?

[Mike Baker]

Well, it all comes down to wet whether and how much rationality really resides in Xi Jinping's head and whether he alone or with whatever collection is around him is truly in charge and there's little anyone else can do about it. But if there are rational people in Beijing and at the top of their military, they would be looking at some of these events and saying, you know what? We had some questions about maybe Donald Trump personally about the United States generally. What risks would they be willing to take? Would they be willing to strike in a time of crisis? Would they stand by an ally or a partner? I mean, Taiwan is technically legally not an ally, but the Taiwan Relations act puts it in a category unto itself that seems like an ally. And so if you kind of take the Iran situation and move it over to East Asia, we'll say China tries to do something to Taiwan, it then crosses the line with Japanese territorial waters or airspace. We have a US Treaty ally involved. The treaty ally is demanding action. If we look at Israel, the United States did stand up with Israel. So in two ways, Donald Trump made clear one of his national security philosophies, one was he wants peace and he will speak loudly and consistently, sit down and negotiate and stop the killing. And on the other hand, when one party in his estimation needs to get hit and it's going to get hit by our ally, he's going to let that ally do it. If he's been frustrated that you're not negotiating peace. And we had concerns about what Iran's air defense capabilities might be, we have concerns about where exactly was their nuclear program. We didn't know exactly what they might do in response and what our exposure might be. We have bases that are not very far from Iran, and he was still willing to strike at, with stealth, at distance, effectively. And so if you're, if you're atop of the pla, you'd say, well, shoot, that means it doesn't really matter whether the United States is close. It doesn't really matter what's going on in this part of the world. If we're not negotiating, as the President is saying, and he's getting frustrated and our treaty allies are saying they're, they're going to have to take things into their own hands. This is a very different narrative in calculus than they've been playing with of a weary, depleted America. Taiwan and others are far away. We're close and right here. And I think with drones and other kinds of technologies kind of leading a new revolutionary and military affairs. I just don't think that the brand new aircraft carriers that they've been trying to trot out and the other kinds of vessels, I mean, these are things that would be pretty quick work in a real conflict because they're not hiding from anything. And so that's where I come down on if sort of like the Sting song. If the Russians love their children too, if there's rationality in Beijing, what they just saw should make this 2027 talk really fizzle a little bit and say, yeah, maybe we should make that trade deal. Maybe we should buy a little bit more time. Maybe this Xi guy isn't the right answer for the 2027 party Congress.

[Joe]

But what's your, what's your instinct tell you about Xi Jinping? I mean, is he completely in charge?

[Mike Baker]

I think he is largely in charge. Complete is probably too much for any Communist party system in China. Russia sure does seem like it's Putin's game and Putin's game alone. Others would probably know better, but it sure looks like that and smells like that. There's a lot of similarities with China, but there's a little Bit more of a collective leadership in China and in past crises, there would be sort of a group of people that would decide, are we sticking with this leader? Are we going to shift gears? And anyone is expendable? So it all comes down to does it play that way? And when I look at Xi, he's picked a lot of fights that he didn't need to pick. And there's been forks in the road between escalation and accommodation to buy time or make a deal. And each one in recent years, he's picked the escalation, whether it's Hong Kong, some of the wolf warrior weirdness of aggression, even sending military capabilities out to the Pacific side of Australia to freak people out. There's. There's just so many things where he's chosen the fight. And that makes me worry that he's not completely irrational. And that's why I think people of Taiwan and our allies closest to this have to live every day preparing, mitigating, and deterring. And that's the healthy part of the conversation that the new administration has kicked in. Whether people like it or not, when someone says, you need to be paying more, doing more, that pressure might not be welcome. The number might not make a lot of sense to them, but the direction is correct.

[Joe]

Well, no, that's a very good point. I think that's borne out with the NATO summit that's taking place this week and their decision to up the spend for each NATO member. And they did say China and Russia. Right. They did highlight both of those as the reasons that the military buildup in China was. Was highlighted as a reason for increasing spending, up to 5% for each. Each member. Steve, listen, thank you, as always, really, really appreciate that. There's a lot more we could cover, but obviously we've. Well, we've run, and maybe it's not obvious, but we have run out of time.

[Mike Baker]

Thank you for watch, Mike. Take good care.

[Joe]

Excellent man. Thanks very much. Steve Yates from the Heritage Foundation. Well, that's all the time we have for this week's BDB Situation Report. Look, if you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes or maybe you got a limerick you want to share with us, just reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com I don't think anybody does limericks anymore. Maybe. So every month, our amazing team, including our interns, they're very smart, you know, select a bunch of your questions and they produce one of our critically acclaimed Ask Me Anything episodes. Another one is in the launch tube, ready to go. Finally to listen to the podcast of the show ad free. Well, you know, you can do that. It's very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. i'm Mike Baker. And until next time. Well, you know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.