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PDB Situation Report | June 7th, 2025: Inside Ukraine’s Drone Strike On Russia & Clan Militias Target Hamas
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Mike Baker
Welcome to the PDP Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. New details are emerging about a drone strike deep inside Russia that damaged multiple long range Russian bo. Now Ukraine says the operation took some 18 months to plan and may have utilized artificial intelligence. Ryan Macbeth, intelligence analyst and weapons expert and all around smart guy, gives us his insight into the attack and the fallout. Later in the show. A quiet rebellion is taking shape in Gaza. This is a very interesting situation. Israel is arming a clan backed militia to challenge Hamas and a new aid group is threatening Hamas's grip on power. Joe Drosman of the foundation for the Defense of Democracies joins us for more on that. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Last Sunday, Ukraine pulled off a bowl strike deep inside Russian territory, now damaging several long range strategic bombers in one of the war's most complex drone and intelligence operations yet. The attack used modified shipping containers to launch over 100 drones and possibly guided by artificial intelligence. The goal, well, the goal was to strike at the heart of Russia's long range bomber fleet. These are planes which have been regularly used to launch missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilians. It's a dramatic shift in modern warfare and a glimpse into what the future might look like on the battlefield. Joining us now is Ryan Macbeth. He's an intelligence analyst, a weapons expert, an all around smart guy, a friend of the show by the way, and the author of a really great novel. It's called the Wind Machine. The road to hell is paved with intervention and that's available on Amazon. Ryan, thank you as always for joining us here on the Situation Report.
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Ryan Macbeth
Thank you so much for inviting me. It's always a pleasure.
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Mike Baker
Okay, give me your top line take on this Ukrainian drone assault on the Russian strategic bombers.
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Ryan Macbeth
You know, I've often said you need to create dilemmas, not problems that for your adversary, a problem has one or more solutions. A dilemma has two or more solutions, each of which are equally bad. And in this case by Ukraine taking out these Russian bombers, it's going to force Russia to do a couple of things. Those bombers were used to launch cruise missiles toward Ukraine. And now Russia has fewer of those platforms to work with. So that means they have a couple of options, all of which are bad. They can move those bombers constantly to avoid an attack like this ever happening again. That's a bad option because it creates crew fatigue, it creates stress on the airframe, and you're not able to use your assets as much as you'd like to. Option two is to launch land based cruise missiles or sea based cruise missiles. Now those are only going to come from a couple of directions. If they're from the sea, it's going to be from the Black Sea, Sea of Azov. If it's from the land, it will probably be from Russian occupied territory, like it won't come from Belarus. So that narrows down the windows that a missile can enter and it makes it easier for Ukraine to target and destroy those missiles. So that's a major problem for Russia moving forward.
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Mike Baker
Now let's talk about the damage done. Right. There have been conflicting reports. Obviously, you know, Ukrainian military is saying one thing, the Russians are saying something else. U.S. and allied estimates seem to be somewhere in the middle. What's your insight into what the actual damage has been?
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Ryan Macbeth
We know that between 10 and 13 strategic bombers were destroyed. Now damage could be even greater. Damage always is. But the real issue is now you have fewer strategic bombers that can execute their mission at any given time. Between 1/3 to maybe 50% of any air asset is available. Now that's because these aircraft need to be maintained. They need to have their oil changed, they need to have their services done, performed on those aircraft. Now you can rush all your maintainers in and surge those aircraft, but you can only do that for a certain amount of time. You have a finite number of maintainers and the airframes still need certain kinds of service life maintenance for a number of hours flown. So this means Russia has to work their bombers harder and that brings down their sortie rate. So even if Ukraine claimed 40 bombers were hit. Even if 40 bombers weren't hit, it's going to cause more stress on the airframes. It's going to cause more maintenance headaches. And remember, these bombers aren't manufactured anymore. So you're grabbing parts from other bombers or you have to special order these parts. This makes it even more difficult to keep them in the air.
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Mike Baker
Okay, so let's, let's start from the beginning. Before this attack, what sort of numbers were we talking about? How many of these? I mean, we're talking about TU95s, TU22s. What was that inventory like for the Russian military?
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Ryan Macbeth
There's roughly, I believe, about 40, 42 of each type. Could be up into the 50s. Again, that depends on how many were flying and how many are considered wind chimes. Right. These are vehicles that have been parked and pulled for parts. Right. So you could say roughly, probably about 40 of 45 of each type currently flying.
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Mike Baker
Okay, so about 80 in total. Again, we're simplifying this a little bit, but about 80 in total of the strategic long range bombers that we're discussing, are all of those, from your understanding, were they all nuclear capable?
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Ryan Macbeth
That's actually an excellent question, and I don't have that information. That's actually information that we probably haven't had for about 10 years since inspectors haven't been let into each country. I believe in about roughly 10 years or so. I know that the United States has eliminated the B1 platform as a strategic nuclear bomber. I believe some B52s are no longer nuclear capable, and that was due to comply with treaties. So I'm not sure whether all of these bombers are nuclear capable or not.
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Mike Baker
Okay. And, and again, to pick up on a point you made just a short while ago, these platforms are not currently being built.
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Mike Baker
They don't have a production capability to replace these, at least at the present time.
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Ryan Macbeth
That's absolutely correct. And it's, it's kind of like saying, like, well, we don't have the production capability to build a new B52, and we have plenty of them. We have enough for our needs currently. And why would we build a new B52? Russia wouldn't want to build a new TU95. They do have some of the, the newer T160 blackjacks in production. I believe the latest one was built in 2022, rolled off the assembly line. I believe they have 10 more on order. Whether those are going to go through or not is. That's a big open question. They certainly need those platforms to launch cruise missiles from. But it also seems like the SU34 is a perfectly good vehicle for launching glide bombs, and those seem to be causing an enormous amount of destruction, at least in the Kherson area.
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Mike Baker
The Ukraine military has made, or the SBU is, has also made a lot of noise about their success hitting what's known as the 850. Talk to me about that if you could.
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Ryan Macbeth
So the A50 is what's called an AWACS plane, Airborne warning and control plane. These planes basically fly above the battlefield. They loiter in racetrack circles, and they use powerful radar and sensors to look for enemy aircraft, enemy missiles. Think of them like the conductor in a symphony of death. They're very similar to the American E3 Sentries in the Air Force or the E2 Hawkeyes in the Navy. Now, from what I understand, Ukraine or Russia only has six of these an 50s remaining. The an 50s that may or may not have been destroyed. They might have been wind chimes themselves. I believe one of the 50s that we saw drone footage of didn't have any engines, which would indicate that that plane might be being used for parts or was left up as a decoy.
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Mike Baker
Okay. And my understanding is over the past three years, the Ukraine has had some success in. In taking out what, two or three of those A50s.
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Ryan Macbeth
I believe they have at least one A50, although I'm not entirely sure exactly how they did that. That is shrouded in a little bit of mystery.
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Mike Baker
Yeah, yeah. No, I mean, the reason why we're talking about that, I mean, for. For the viewers benefit is, is, look, these, you know, there is a limited inventory with the Russian Air Force, and they are enormously expensive, and they don't produce them anymore. So then that begs the question, if that leaves a gap, a significant gap in, in their capabilities, how do they fill that? What do they do? I mean, do they have any. Any replacement at this point?
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Ryan Macbeth
They don't have a replacement. Now, what Russia has is very good at is ground search radar. And there's a very simple reason for that. Back in the 1950s, 1960s, Russia just couldn't produce the microchips that America could produce. They weren't very good at miniaturization. In fact, their whole idea was to copy American innovations. So usually Russian chip innovations were about 10 years behind. And so what Russia decided to do was invest a lot of their computer processing power into radar stations and surface air missile installations, because it didn't really matter whether you had miniaturization when you were in a van on the ground. That meant that search radars for aircraft were a lot less advanced. And typically they used guidance from ground control. So ground control would tell these search radars or the ground control would tell these fighter aircraft where to go. So Russia might be able to compensate by utilizing their ground radar a little more extensively than they do now. They also are very good at surface to air missile coverage. They still have the S4,400, the S300. There's an extensive network close to the border of Russia with these systems. So Russia might be able to take that over, or Russia might be able to use those radars to kind of fill in those gaps. But just remember, if an aircraft is down roughly one third one half its life, and now there's five or six and 50s left, that means that Russia can only fly maybe two at a time, if they're lucky, on a good day, and that could cause a gap in coverage.
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Mike Baker
All right, look, look, what I'd like to do is talk about the operational aspects of this, of this attack, right? We can look at the mechanics of how it was carried out and what it may mean. And also there have been some reports about the use of artificial intelligence as part of this. So. But before we do that, Ryan, what we need to do is have you stay right where you are. Don't go anywhere, because as you know, we have some terrific sponsors. We need to take a quick break, and then we'll be right back with more from Ryan McBeth here on the situation Report. Hey, Mike Baker here. I want to take just a little bit of your time to talk about your online security right now. Look, going online without ExpressVPN, well, it's like leaving your blinds open at night. Ooh, that sounds creepy. You wouldn't do it, right? Anyone can watch what you're doing, and you have no idea who might be out there lurking in the dark. Now, ExpressVPN, well, they reroute 100% of your traffic through secure, encrypted servers. So your ISP can't see your browsing history. Look, because all your traffic flows through their servers. Internet service providers, ISPs know every single website you visit, right? Did you know that? And did you know in the US ISPs are legally allowed to sell that information to advertisers? Seriously, ExpressVPN works on all your devices. And this is important. It's easy to use. Just fire up the app and click one button to get protected today. Protect your online privacy today by visiting expressvpn.com baker that's B A K E R. That's expressvpn.com baker to find out how you can get up to four extra free months. ExpressVPN expressvpn.com baker she's made up her.
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Mike Baker
Run your way@newbalance.com running welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is is Ryan Macbeth. Now, you can check him out at Substack. I hear that's quite the thing@ryan mcbeath.substack.com he's also got a great YouTube channel. I recommend you check that out after you finish watching the Situation Report. Of course, you can find him on YouTube at Ryan Macbeth program. Ryan, thanks very much for sticking around. Let's talk about the actual carrying out of this rather incredible strike by the Ukrainian forces by the sbu. The SBU seems to have taken obviously the lead on this. Tell me what you know about how they carried this off.
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Ryan Macbeth
Oh, from what we understand, they either somehow smuggled drones inside of. I've heard three different things. I've heard shipping containers, I've heard sheds, and I've heard manufactured housing. But somehow they manufactured these drones, place them inside of these. Let's just call them shipping containers for now. It's easy enough. Place them on the top in a. In a false roof. When then they paid Russian truck drivers to drive these containers to certain points that were at least 10 to 7 to 10 kilometers away from Russian air bases. They were told to stop. The tops opened up, the drones full out. Now, apparently these drones were controlled from inside of Ukraine, and from what I understand, that was done over the Russian cellular network. And the app Telegram, sure you're familiar with the Telegram app that was used to provide a video feed for drone operators to actually fly these drones over to these bombers and detonate their payloads.
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Mike Baker
Now, what the. What the reporting is saying and what the SBU is, is saying is that they actually carried out the, the, the logistics of this were carried out inside Russia. In other words, it's not like they manufactured these, these concealment devices. You know, again, whether it was mobile homes or cargo containers or sheds, not your typical use for a shed, but that they, they did that inside Russia. Which makes it even more astounding.
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Ryan Macbeth
That might certainly be the case. We might not know the truth for a while. I mean, this could have been one of those things where the drones are manufactured in Ukraine. The drones were sent through trans shippers until they got to Russia and they met up with their housing or the, the sheds inside of Russia. The drones were placed inside using agents that were already inside Russia or via Russian sympathizers. That's one of those things that will eventually come out. But the fact is that they did it. And now it's kind of scary is that it certainly means that any air base anywhere in the world could be subject to some sort of attack like this.
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Mike Baker
It's reminiscent of the Mossad Hezbollah pager operation in terms of complexity and, and the, the need to carry it out in a very hostile environment. The need for obviously human assets for, you would assume some backstop cover operations in order to, you know, hire the, the truck drivers to, you know, receive whatever shipments came into Russia. I mean, it is fascinating and I think you're right. I think we'll get more details as you go along. Typically when you do something like this as an intel organization, you don't necessarily want to play all your hand because there may be an opportunity in the future to conduct a similar type operation, or you've just got assets or, or sources that you obviously want to, to maintain. Talk to me about the, the use of artificial intelligence, at least from your understanding at this stage.
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Ryan Macbeth
Absolutely. Well, both Ukraine and Russia have used artificial intelligence, especially in targeting. Ukraine has a type of drone called the Ceph, which you can program and say, hey, I want you to fly into this area and fight a tank or an APC or whatever. Russia's Lancet loitering munition uses artificial intelligence for guidance when looking for targets. And one of the things that we've noticed is that Russia has placed tires on the backs of some of their strategic bombers because they believe it will fool the artificial intelligence software that is on the loitering munition to misidentify that target. That could all. They could be wrong about that or it just could be make work for, for airmen. Right? I mean, look, the Russian army probably isn't that much different than the American army when it comes to, well, throw some tires on that because we need the conscripts to do something and we think it might help. Right, you got plenty of conscripts, plenty of tires, plenty of time. If these drones weren't actually guided by people over telegram as some have suggested, then we are at a point where we can send a payload someplace, send a command signal. And now these drones are going to lift off and find their targets automatically. And that is within our capability today. That is not science fiction. That is something we can do right now. All we have to do is get over the ethics of it. And once countries understand that they have this power and artificial intelligence, you'll be able to get into your adversaries OODA loop, your observe, orient, act aside loop very, very quickly. And so if the, if you're not using artificial intelligence but your adversary is, that's going to be a major, major problem.
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Mike Baker
Yeah, well it's a good point that you raised in terms of the ethics of it, all right, because that's been an issue for quite some time now, global war on terror, you know, include it in terms of taking the human out of that final decision making process about a lethal action. But I, I, you know, again, going back to this point, because I'm glad you raised it, the, the tires lining, the lining, the wings and on top of these, some of these aircraft. I'm sure anybody who saw that video was a little bit confused as to why they were doing that. Again, I know this is, you know, a little bit off topic, but do you think that actually could function, could work something that simple?
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Ryan Macbeth
I mean it, it could. If you recall During World War I, some Allied nations pa battleships in what they called zebra camouflage, which were stripes to just kind of make your eye kind of wonder where it's going. And with artificial intelligence you train on multiple images. So if I'm training artificial intelligence, I'm going to say, all right, here is 100,000 images of a T22 bomber. And if those images don't have tires on top of them, the system is not going to train to recognize tires on top of a bomber as a valid target. So it might not be able to find that target. Now here's the deal. We don't necessarily know how artificial intelligence in some ways gets to their decision. So it might still be able to find that information or to match that target in its database. If it is close enough, it will give its best desk, kind of like a hallucination when using a Large language model, just come up with something. So it certainly might do that. I don't think it can actually hurt, but it should provide a little bit more difficulty in an AI identifying these targets. But then again, then you just have to train the algorithm on, all right, what if the target is covered in tires and then that goes right out the window. One option that you could do is you might be able to do something like paint outlines of aircraft on the ground or even paint the tops of the aircraft in those stripes, like the zebra camouflage of World War I on ships. And that could throw off the targeting systems of AI.
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Mike Baker
Do you ever think of, I mean, this is speculation, but, you know, based on all your experience, do you think the US military would get to that point where they can, they can set aside the ethical questions and say, yeah, we will take the human out of the loop?
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Ryan Macbeth
I actually think we're not going to have a choice. And in a lot of ways we already have. The Aegis system is technically a human out of the loop system. You turn the Aegis system on and the Aegis system, which is on every single American cruiser and destroyer, will automatically detect and fire at targets. They'll even coordinate with other ships in the battle group to take down missiles or take down aircraft. And that's because naval combat, when missiles are being fired at you, it happens so fast that a computer has to manage it. So you already have a, what's called a hoodl or human out of the loop system in the Aegis system. The Patriot system and the thaad, which are two American air defense systems, they operate the same way. You put that thing into auto mode and it will identify, track and engage theater, ballistic missiles or aircraft without any sort of human intervention. We already have killer robots. The next step is to just admit that in some ways killer robots could be beneficial. Mainly because they don't get tired, they don't get scared, they don't get upset when a buddy dies. And they're going to make decisions based on facts and evidence as opposed to emotion.
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Mike Baker
Yeah, I'm sure this is, this is making a lot of people really comfortable. Killer robots and human out of the loop. Before we go right, I want to be mindful of your time. Give me the, give me the elevator pitch for your terrific book. Just so the viewers know, it's called the Wind Machine.
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Ryan Macbeth
That's correct. So last November I released a book called the Wind Machine, which is about a hedge fund manager who has an AI powered supercomputer. He uses it to trade stocks. And one day he realizes that because of different stock trades being made in the market, China might invade Taiwan. And so the question kind of becomes, do I use this machine to make money or do I give it to the government to help fight or prevent or win this war? And there was a pivotal scene in the Wind Machine where China attacks the United States using drones fired from a shipping container, which is, all of a sudden people are talking about my book again. So I guess this attack was a little, I don't want to say I predicted this attack because apparently it was a year and a half in the making, but the book certainly drew some attention just because of that attack.
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Mike Baker
Yeah, yeah. As the SBU giving you credit yet for?
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Ryan Macbeth
I, I, I would love the credit. I'd love for them to plug my book. You know, I don't think I need to help the Ukrainians in any way when it comes to audacity.
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Mike Baker
Yeah, yeah, it's, it's really interesting. It's, this came on the heels, of course, of President Trump's famous comment that, you know, Zeletsky wasn't holding any cards and apparently they were holding some cards for this, you know, plan that had been from their perspective or from what they were saying 18 months in the, in the making. It's, it's rather extraordinary and we really appreciate here on the Situation Report, Ryan, you coming on and providing your expertise and insight into this. Again, check out Ryan's book. It's available on Amazon. It's called the Wind Machine. And dude, I hope you, you pick up the phone when we call you and you agree to come back the next time. Coming up next, wow, killer robots and human out of the loop decision making. There you go. All right, coming up next, a Klan backed militia in Gaza is getting its weapons, reportedly from Israel. And a new aid group is threatening Hamas's control. So you ask yourself, at least you should ask yourself, could this be the start of an internal uprising? Could be a good Hamas actually be finally losing their grip on the population. I'll be right back.
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Mike Baker
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. A dangerous new front is opening in Gaza and it's not between Israel and Hamas, but it's within Gaza itself. Israel has reportedly begun arming a clan backed militia in Rafah known as the Popular Forces. It's led by an individual named Yasser Abu Shaba. The group described by some, including rival Hamas as a criminal gang and by others as a security outfit. It now operates in Israeli controlled territory, openly challenging Hamas's authority. At the same time, a new aid group, the Gaza Humanitarian foundation, is bypassing Hamas entirely, threatening their grip on food and medicine and power and control of the population. The stage may be set for a civil war inside Gaza now. Joining us now to break it all down is Joe Trusman, research analyst at FDD's Longmore Journal. Joe, thanks very much for joining us here on the Situation Report. They round me, this is a, a fascinating development and by that I mean, you know, this, this idea that, that there's a militia or clan in southern Gaza and seemingly looking to assert itself against Hamas and now we're hearing that the Israeli military is providing it with weapons. Tell me what you know about it.
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Ad Sponsor
Right, yeah, you've kind of hit it on the mark there. Israel arming Palestinian militia in Gaza isn't the headline that you usually observe in the news. I'll tell you that over the years that I've been, I've been doing this, so quite interesting. Nevertheless. Yes, that's what's, that's what's happening, at least from what we know is Israel is arming them with light arms. I think some of the reports that I read were the Kalashnikovs. I think there's a little bit more support than just that. Nevertheless, this nascent militia who is run by or is led by a individual from southern Gaza named Yasser Abu Shabaab, effectively what they're doing, right, with several hundred men, armed men, is they are countering Hamas. And this is again a Hamas right now that has been really been hit hard over the last more than year and a half of, of war with the Israelis. So it's an interesting development. Right. Right now most of this, most of the information that we know is that this organization who calls itself the Popular Forces is based in southern Gaza, all right. And are again, they're acting as a counter to Hamas. Will they succeed? I'm not sure. But still, this is a pretty interesting development.
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Mike Baker
Yeah, no, it's, it's a fascinating development. Now I, I guess you can go back and forth and argue about the strategy of putting weapons in the hands of a, of a militia Is it, is it true that they operate that Shabab and his, his militia, do they operate essentially in an area that currently is occupied and controlled by the idf?
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Ad Sponsor
Yeah, so that's what it seems appears to be. However, I will add this kernel of information. About a week ago or so, Hamas published this, this video where they said that they had attacked or ambushed what they said was IDF troops, and they killed a few of them. Uh, but I believe, and I think other analysts believe, that they weren't IDF troops, actually, that they were actually the members of this new militia. Because you can just tell watching the video, these guys weren't, were wearing uniforms. All right. There was something off about it anyway. And this was in southern Gaza. So it's interesting. Hamas is, you know, Hamas is aware, right, about this organization and they're trying to counter it. But yeah, effectively right now, this organization, this militia is in southern Gaza. Will they, will it spread? I. It's possible. Right, but they're going to need new recruits. Right? So there's a lot to see. A lot. You have to wait here and see what's going to happen. Again, this is all pretty new in Gaza.
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Mike Baker
How important are the clans or the, the families in terms of operating independently from Hamas or, or controlling their own community, no matter how big or small that community may be?
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Ad Sponsor
Right. It's, it's, it's tough. I mean, listen, this is something I've said for a while and have assessed for a while now that Hamas is in pretty much every facet of life in the Gaza Strip. All right? Whether it's in working with, working in having men, in working with NGOs, right, charities or, uh, media clans. For example, there are large clans in the Gaza Strip, many of them who have members, whose members are members of Hamas. So I think it is possible now that a clan can independently act without Hamas's interference, only because Hamas is so weak right now because of the war. Now, if you were to ask me this question before October 7, 2023, I'd tell you no way. But I think things are changing. However, I think Hamas still wields a lot of influence. Right. And this. Actually speaking of clans, the member, at least the clan that Shabaab belongs to reportedly pretty much disowned him because of this, this new, this news that, that came, came about in recent days and today. So, so, yeah, I think, you know, it's possible, right? But again, Hamas still wields some influence in the Gaza Strip.
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Mike Baker
Now, who's calling the shots for Hamas at this point? Because you know, they've officially announced that, yes, Mohammed Sinwar was, was terminated. Who do you know from, from your understanding who's calling the shots there?
- [34:44]
Ad Sponsor
Right? It's a very million dollar question, right? Who, who's left? I mean, let's be honest here. Most of Hamas's hierarchy has been eliminated. The top, either political guys or top military guys, they're gone. But there's a couple of them still, you know, some stragglers. Right. But I think if I were to put money on it, it would be this Gaza Brigade commander, Izzeddin Al Khabad. He is, he's been around for many years and so far has survived Israeli attempts to assassinate him. So I think he's calling the shots right now, at least in the interim. All right, let's say Hamas survives the war, okay? Say they survived the war. I think there'll be a formal process of electing a new Gaza chief. Okay? But I think right now he's the one calling the shots. There are a couple of other guys that may be, they're alternatives. Right. But I think he's the man right now just because he's well known, he has the experience, the military experience to, I guess just to command Hamas right now during these trying times for the, for the organization given, given the hits.
- [36:01]
Mike Baker
That Hamas has faced, right. And the leadership that it's been terminated up to this point, sort of the disarray that, their reported inability to, to pay their fighters, the personnel. To what degree do you think they're vulnerable to a group like this militia run by Shabab in terms of, of losing control and having another group come in? And then this is a two part question. So there's that. But then, you know, is it realistic on the part of the idf, on the part of Netanyahu and the, the Israeli government to imagine that any group that comes in would be successful if it's known to have the support of Israel, it's receiving weapons. I agree with you. I think it's more than just weapons. You would imagine they're receiving intel support and other resources. But it's hard to imagine that, you know, any group that could succeed, Hamas in Gaza could do that by being a known ally or partner with Israel.
- [37:04]
Ad Sponsor
Right. And that's been the big problem. I mean, unsurprisingly, that of course, Hamas has said this and allied groups and Palestinians that essentially this Abu Shabaab, his militia is an Israeli proxy. All right? And yeah, that it's basically they're controlled by Israel. So it is a problem. However, I Think the Israelis already understood this, all right, Even before they start supporting this organization. I think the strategy here could be, could be a two parter, really. First to show, all right, to demonstrate to Palestinians that there are other forces, there are other options, okay, other than Hamas. Okay, that, but that only, well, could, can happen if this new organization, this new militia is, is successful. But to be quite honest with you, and you mentioned it too, I do have, I do have great concerns. I think the Israelis are taking a pretty significant risk here. Listen, we have to be honest. Israel has all this isn't the first time Israel has done something like this. Israel has armed organizations before the Phalange and Lebanon, for example, or the Syrian rebel groups, of course, in southern Syria. And things didn't turn out too well in those cases. Nevertheless, I think, you know, another part here that's important is that if Israel succeeds in obviously not only just establishing this militia, but having this militia cause problems for Hamas, it'll weaken Hamas even further. I mean, let's, let's face it here. Hamas is battling the IDF and now it's already using resources. I mean, we've seen evidence of it with the video that I talked about earlier where Hamas is having to dedicate resources to trying to eliminate this new emerging or this nascent organization. And the problem too for Hamas is that it may compel others, other Palestinians to say, hey, why don't we form an armed group? If the Israelis are helping Abu Shabaab, why can't they, you know, help Abu Ahmed, for example? Right. Or whoever. Right. So the problem here for Hamas is that new organizations will start, start popping up, right? These armed organizations that are anti Hamas. I think that's in the Israeli calculus here. The Israeli strategy to compel. Right. The Palestinian people to rise up against Hamas. It wouldn't surprise me. It's not a for sure thing, of course, but that's something I've, you know, I've suspected here because just the, this new group, just them alone, even, even with a weakened Hamas, I don't think they could just beat Hamas by themselves. Right. Hamas is still too large. So we'll see when I start seeing new organizations popping up within the next few weeks and months. Just depends if the war lasts.
- [40:19]
Mike Baker
Yeah, it's, it's, it's really a great point that you make. It's, it may not be from the Israeli government, military's perspective, it may not be that they view this militia group by, you know, run by Shabab as, as a, a replacement for Hamas. They may just view it as a distraction for Hamas. You know, one more way to keep them on their back foot and to degrade them into eventually with the overall objective of, of, of getting control away from Hamas. Joe, listen, we've got to take a quick break and if you'll stay right where you are, we're going to be back with more from Joe trusman from the FDD's Long War Journal in just a moment. Stay with us right here on the Situation Report. Welcome back to the BDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Joe Trusman, these research analyst at FDD's Long War Journal. We've been talking all things Gaza. Joe, another group that's making significant waves right now in Gaza is the Gaza Humanitarian foundation, ghf. Talk to me about them if you could.
- [41:22]
Ad Sponsor
Right. So effectively they are a nonprofit organization that has replaced the UN or UNRA and other organizations to effectively deliver aid to the Palestinian people. Now the big point about this organization is that it, its goal or one of its methods is to remove Hamas from the equation. Hamas. With previous mechanisms to distribute aid in the Gaza Strip, Hamas was leveraging it, all right. They were effectively just taking the food, taking the aid for themselves. In this situation, the foundation is able to get distribute aid to these organizations or rather to the Palestinian people with a much less Hamas interference. I'm sure it's called some Hamas. Right, Hamas, the organization at least is getting some aid out of it. Right. But nothing like it was before. See, the problem was before Hamas, as I said, they would leverage this aid that would come into the Gaza Strip. How would they do that? They would basically steal it and sell it on the black market. All right? Now they can't do that, not nearly in large quantities as they did before. So this is what this new foundation is doing. They're distributing aid to civilians in need. It just started a few weeks ago. Course there's some, it's been a bumpy ride I think and I'm not surprised. But I think from the last report that I saw is that they've handed out distributed, I believe it's about 8 million meals so far. So I mean that's pretty good. But I still think there's, there's a long way, long way to go for them.
- [43:18]
Mike Baker
Yeah. Is it fair to say that Hamas has used the international aid in the past, ever since they, they took control there in Gaza as a, as a key element in how they maintain control over the population?
- [43:31]
Ad Sponsor
Oh yeah, absolutely. I mean there are Hamas, Hamas used to be deeply involved in the logistics of distributing the aid that was coming into the Gaza Strip. So, yeah, absolutely. Now the Palestinian people don't have to rely on Hamas to, to, to get food. So it's, it's a big deal and it really hurts Hamas. You can tell that Hamas is hurting just because the way they're acting. All right, you don't, you see, they publish these statements. They're completely, of course, against the, the Foundation. They're. And of course, there's a lot of incitement too, not only by Hamas, but by their allies and in the Gaza Strip with a lot of these statements that are coming out against the Foundation. So they want, listen, Hamas has said they want the UN, the UNRA and the UN back in the Gaza Strip. Because effectively what Hamas did before was that they were able to control the U.N. i mean, they built tunnels and command centers below UNRA compounds. And they, it was, it was pretty incredible how much these organizations, not only Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, for example, they had infiltrated UN organizations and other charities. Right? It was a serious problem. And now through this, because of this war, we got to see the evidence of this infiltration, right, of what Hamas did with a lot of these charities. So the foundation is there to effectively stop that. Right. And, well, Hamas doesn't like it.
- [45:09]
Mike Baker
Yeah, well, you can see that in the narrative that it's come out. I mean, it's been fascinating because it does seem every now and then you think, okay, well, maybe the media or much of the media will stop just swallowing whatever Hamas, you know, spoon feeds him as a narrative. And so, you know, this was actually a remarkable event in the sense that, you know, the Washington Post, the BBC and some others for once actually had to come out and say, no, our reporting was wrong about meaning about the, the shootings that were reported by Hamas by the health ministry at a GHF distribution site. And, you know, it must have been enormously painful for the Washington Post to retract their, their article, pull it off and say, we've, we've made a mistake, that that's an earth shaking event right there. Where did the GHF come from? They seem to just pop out of nowhere almost.
- [46:08]
Ad Sponsor
I mean, you can say, I know that they've been established earlier this, this year with Israeli and American backing. And I believe now their, their chair is Johnny Moore, evangelical leader. But listen, you know, this is, this is a very difficult situation for any organization to come in into a war torn territory, all right, and try to distribute food. And to be quite honest with you, I, you know, I Think they're doing a pretty good job. Because, listen, Hamas, they're going to try, they're going to do what they need to do to undermine this, this new mechanism, okay?
- [46:50]
Mike Baker
And then you look at what's happening with, with that militia run by Shabab down in southern Gaza pushing back and against Hamas. I mean, these two things alone must be just as threatening to Hamas as looting, as losing fighters, losing leadership in targeted attacks by the idf, because it, it almost speaks much more directly to their place in society.
- [47:21]
Ryan Macbeth
Right.
- [47:21]
Mike Baker
Am I, am I wrong in, in putting it there?
- [47:24]
Ad Sponsor
Right. No, you're definitely not wrong. Yeah. Because, listen, effectively what's happening is that Hamas is being replaced as the authority. All right? They're not the authority anymore, at least partially, and they don't want Palestinians to see that, okay? Because that's where Hamas is losing its power and its grip over the population. And, yeah, it's going to cause problems for them. So I think over the next weeks, maybe months, depends if there is a ceasefire. If there isn't a ceasefire, we're going to see a lot more coming out of Hamas, I think. And it, and I hate saying this, I don't like it, but it would not surprise me if we start seeing Hamas activity at these aid sites to undo, specifically undermine it because just because, again, this is a terrorist organization, they're going to do whatever it takes to survive. That's the thing. And that's. I wish people would understand more people would understand that Hamas is Hamas's priority is itself, not the Palestinian people. The Palestinian people come in second, maybe even third. Hamas needs to survive. Right. And that's what they're trying to do here. So they will do pretty much anything to ensure that, unfortunately. So we have to see, there's still, I think, a long road ahead. Will there be a ceasefire? Who knows? But in between, I think Hamas is going to continue to at least try to undermine what's happening with, with the foundation. Right. With this new mechanism. And of course, they have their own problems with this new emerging militia.
- [49:01]
Mike Baker
I think you're absolutely spot on. Look, I've taken some heat in the past because I said that, you know, dead Palestinians are kind of Hamas's currency. Right? That's, that's, that's, that's their leverage. That's what they rely on because that's how they drive the international narrative. And so they fully expect, and they fully knew what was going to happen as a result of the 7 October attacks that kicked off this current conflict. But what, speaking of the Ceasefire and, and the hostage negotiations, what do you hear about that?
- [49:35]
Ad Sponsor
Right? You know, this may sound counterintuitive, to be quite honest with you, but when I start seeing, you know, fresh reports about possible ceasefire, you know, quite frankly, I don't believe them because we've seen it so many times now, right, Just in recent days, in recent weeks, we thought maybe there was going to be a ceasefire. Nothing. And I'll tell you, I think they're. I think negotiators are hitting the same roadblock over and over again over the past month, over the past, well, more than a year and a half now, and that is this, that Hamas wants to stay in power. All right, they'll say, they say, yes, Israel, we'll give you the hostages that we took, but we're. You guys got to get out and we're staying in power. And Israel says, you know what, we'll give you thousands of Palestinian prisoners for the hostages that, you know, took captive on October 7th. But, yeah, you're not staying in Gaza, right. And I think you're not gonna at least govern in Gaza anymore. All right? And that's the problem. I think that we keep running into. That's why this ceasefire, it gets close, right? These negotiations get close to a deal, but then nothing happened. I think that's where we're at in the world I've always been at for some time now. So this is why we're starting to see this new militia emerge, I think to try to put more pressure on Hamas. Right. Additional IDF maneuvers in the Gaza Strip in recent days, more pressure on Hamas to eventually let go. I think this is what Israel is trying to do. Will it work? I don't know. But what I'm afraid of, what I'm concerned is that Hamas will continue going despite the, the collateral damage or the damage that's being caused in, in Gaza. Unfortunately, I'm not sure they'll give up or surrender. I don't know. So I think that's where we're at right now, especially with the ceasefire. It's just the same problem. One side doesn't want to give up. It's, you know, it's terms. And the same goes for the other. So one of them is going to blame. I just don't know who.
- [51:40]
Mike Baker
The last question, Joe, and of course, it requires a lot of speculation. From your perspective, any chance at all that the Palestinian people, the Gaza residents themselves, rise up against Hamas and say, enough's enough.
- [51:54]
Ad Sponsor
I think that's what Hamas fears the most. I think that's what Israel wants more than anything. You know, we've seen a little bit of it with protests, especially in the northern Gaza Strip over the last months. They, they, you know, you see these protests, they start, you know, for a few days, you know, they start rolling, they get the. More people start coming out, but then they stop all of a sudden. Why do they stop? Well, I'll tell you why they stop is because there are members of Hamas that intimidate these protesters. They go to their homes, or sometimes they beat the protest, sometimes they kill some of the protesters. They've done that. So, you know, as. As long as Hamas has the ability to intimidate protesters to essentially or effectively quash these protests, I don't see the Palestinian people rising up. However, again, as we talked about earlier, this emerging militia may compel other Palestinians to do something similar. All right? And that's. That would be a big problem for Hamas. So right now, today, I don't think the civilians could rise up against Hamas, but maybe in a month or two, I think it's possible. But there needs to be more coordination, more organization among, among the Palestinian civilians for that to happen. I think it has to be widespread, but we haven't seen that so far.
- [53:18]
Mike Baker
Listen, Joe, I really, really appreciate your expertise and your insight here. Joe Trusman, research analyst at FDD's Long War Journal. Listen, man, I hope, I hope you'll come back. I don't think this conflict is going to end anytime soon. So we, we definitely would love to have you back on. That's all the time we have for this week's PDB situation Report. Now, if you have any questions or comments, maybe you've got a humorous anecdote that you want to share, just reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com every month. As you know by now, our incredible team here at the pdb, well, they sit down and they sift through all your cards and letters and they come up with some of the great questions and they mush them into what we call a monthly ask me anything episode. We're in the process of building another one right this minute, finally, to listen to the show ad free. Well, you can do that, you know, just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDP premium.com I'm Mike Baker, and until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.