PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security

Summary

Podcast Summary: The President's Daily Brief – PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025

Title: PDB Situation Report | March 1st, 2025: Will Gaza Erupt Again? Cease-Fire Nears Collapse & America’s Energy Security
Host: Mike Baker
Guest: Robert Greenway (Former Deputy Assistant to the President and Director of the Allison Center for National Security at the Heritage Foundation), Daniel Turner (Executive Director of Power of the Future)
Release Date: March 1, 2025

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1. Introduction

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief, host Mike Baker delves into two critical issues facing the United States and the broader international community: the precarious state of the Gaza ceasefire and the administration's aggressive push towards enhancing America's energy security. With expert insights from Robert Greenway and Daniel Turner, the discussion navigates the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics and the implications of U.S. energy policies on national security.

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2. Gaza Ceasefire: A Fragile Balance

Expiration of the Ceasefire Deal:
Mike Baker opens the discussion by highlighting the imminent expiration of the Gaza ceasefire deal set for Saturday. Despite initial hopes, the agreement remains tenuous with unresolved issues surrounding the remaining hostages.

• Hostage Situation:
  Over the past six weeks, Hamas has released 33 Israeli hostages and five Thai nationals. However, 28 Israeli hostages remain "believed to be alive with their fate hanging in the balance" (03:01).

Violation Accusations:
Both Israel and Hamas have "accused each other of violating the deal", leading to stalled negotiations. Hamas demands a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a condition Israel staunchly opposes, especially amid reports of Hamas recruiting and training new fighters (04:08).

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3. Hamas’ Revitalization and Israeli Domestic Pressure

Hamas’ Strategic Moves:
Daniel Turner discusses the resurgence of Hamas, noting their efforts to "resurrect their capacity" despite the significant reduction in their military capabilities (05:23). The withdrawal of certain Israeli forces has inadvertently provided Hamas with opportunities to rebuild.

Israeli Public Sentiment:
The Israeli populace is increasingly fractured. While there is a collective desire for the return of hostages, public tolerance for continued ceasefire violations by Hamas is dwindling. Turner emphasizes that "the pressure actually is increasing domestically on the Netanyahu government to resume military operations" (05:12).

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4. Potential Resumption of Military Operations

Scenario of Renewed Hostilities:
Mike Baker and Daniel Turner explore the possibilities if the ceasefire collapses. Turner suggests that renewed military operations might focus on "attrition" and "surgical strikes" rather than large-scale offensives (11:45). This approach aims to limit Hamas' capabilities without escalating into full-blown war.

• International Reactions:
  The potential for increased hostilities could draw international condemnation. However, Turner notes that the Israeli government, bolstered by "support from Washington under the Trump administration," is likely to withstand external pressures (13:53).

Governance Post-War Gaza:
A significant concern remains the governance structure of post-war Gaza. With no credible alternative proposed by Israel, Turner remarks, "there is no segment of the population now that supports a withdrawal or continued negotiations essentially with Hamas," indicating prolonged instability (10:59).

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5. Shifts in U.S. Energy Policy Under President Trump

Energy Independence as National Security:
Transitioning to energy security, Mike Baker outlines President Trump's strategy to "ramp up domestic US Energy production" as a cornerstone of national security. This shift aims to reduce reliance on foreign powers and enhance America's global leverage (25:00).

Policy Contrasts with Previous Administrations:
Baker contrasts Trump's approach with the previous administration's, which favored scaling back domestic drilling and increasing imports. Trump’s policies are positioned as a move towards "unleashing America's natural resources" to foster economic growth and strengthen military capabilities (25:00).

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6. Clean Energy vs. Fossil Fuels

Critique of Renewable Energy:
Daniel Turner passionately criticizes renewable energy sources, labeling them as "slave labor," "unreliable," and "intermittent." He argues that renewables like wind and solar cannot consistently meet energy demands due to their dependence on weather conditions (40:09).

• Economic Implications:
  Turner asserts that reliance on renewables has led to "unstable" energy prices, citing Europe’s energy crisis as evidence of the pitfalls of an over-reliance on renewable sources (40:09).

Support for Fossil Fuels:
Baker advocates for a return to fossil fuels, emphasizing their role in powering essential industries and maintaining affordable energy costs. He highlights recent policy victories, such as the Senate repealing Biden's tax on natural gas, as signs of positive momentum (27:06; 29:31).

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7. Keystone Pipeline and Regulatory Challenges

Keystone Pipeline Revival:
Baker discusses the challenges of reviving the Keystone Pipeline, attributing past setbacks to political interference. He criticizes the Biden administration for creating an environment of "fear" around major infrastructure projects, deterring private sector investment (28:09).

• Regulatory Overreach:
  He argues that decisions related to pipelines should be under congressional jurisdiction, not the State Department, to prevent "political footballs" that jeopardize long-term investments (29:40).

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8. Nuclear Energy and Future Prospects

Advocacy for Nuclear Power:
Turner highlights the administration's support for nuclear energy, particularly "small micronuclear plants" that can provide sustainable power to remote communities (31:19). He envisions a future where nuclear energy could lead to "abundant and inexpensive" electricity, rivaling past energy costs (32:00).

Regulatory Hurdles:
Despite the potential, regulatory barriers persist. Turner underscores the need to overcome "fear" associated with nuclear projects to harness America's rich uranium reserves and achieve true energy independence (32:06).

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9. Mining Policies and Rare Earth Elements

Domestic Mining Initiatives:
The discussion shifts to the strategic importance of mining critical minerals like lithium, essential for battery production. Turner emphasizes the need to "push back regulatory policies" to capitalize on domestic discoveries, such as lithium deposits in Arkansas (42:29).

• Environmental and Foreign Influences:
  Baker warns against environmental activism stalling mining projects, advocating for American-based mining operations to ensure ethical labor practices and environmental protections, contrasting them with foreign counterparts (43:49).

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10. Conclusion and Future Outlook

Mike Baker and Daniel Turner conclude by expressing skepticism about the feasibility of current energy policies aimed at reducing fossil fuel dependence. Turner remains optimistic about regional participation in peace solutions and anticipates constructive engagement from upcoming summits, such as the Arab Summit in Riyadh, to address the Israel-Palestine conflict with fresh perspectives (20:38; 22:14).

Baker reinforces the necessity of prioritizing American energy interests and ensuring that policy shifts facilitate economic growth, national security, and global leadership. The episode underscores the intricate balance between geopolitical stability in the Middle East and the strategic overhaul of U.S. energy policies aimed at securing a robust and independent energy future.

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Notable Quotes

• Daniel Turner:

  • "Hamas unfortunately has little left other than corpses to trade and the way in which they transfer it. All it does is aggravate and exacerbate the tensions for Israel." (03:20)
  • "After the exchange of remains of hostages, there's not that much sympathy left for Hamas. They're losing, I think, a great deal of support and there's a tremendous amount of fatigue on the issue more broadly." (13:11)
  • "The Israeli populace, by and large, feels significantly aggrieved... They've got a more supportive partner in Washington this time around." (13:53)
  • "President Trump has shifted the debate and I think the region knows it. What I would expect is there will be greater regional participation in the solution." (20:38)
  • "If you own a coal mine, you're going to go bankrupt. And everyone applauded and gave him awards... But if you're one of those 4,000 coal jobs in a rural town all across America, your livelihood was destroyed." (43:49)

• Mike Baker:

  • "Why are we taxing natural gas? Because he hates the industry and he wanted more money, that's why." (27:06)
  • "We're headed in a really, really bright direction." (28:09)
  • "The other side, that's all they know how to do, is push back. They hate the energy industry." (27:06)
  • "We have the uranium for nuclear in Alaska, we have so many raw materials in this country that energy should be an afterthought." (32:42)
  • "China controls 95% of the rare earth and metals and minerals industry worldwide." (35:32)

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Timestamps:

• [03:01]
• [03:20]
• [04:08]
• [05:12]
• [05:23]
• [07:05]
• [07:38]
• [08:55]
• [10:59]
• [11:45]
• [12:34]
• [13:11]
• [13:53]
• [14:26]
• [17:57]
• [18:44]
• [19:24]
• [20:06]
• [20:38]
• [22:14]
• [23:35]
• [23:57]
• [24:21]
• [25:00]
• [26:47]
• [27:06]
• [28:09]
• [28:22]
• [29:31]
• [29:40]
• [29:49]
• [30:55]
• [31:19]
• [32:00]
• [32:05]
• [32:42]
• [33:11]
• [34:07]
• [35:32]
• [36:27]
• [37:17]
• [39:02]
• [39:06]
• [39:13]
• [39:19]
• [40:09]
• [41:46]
• [42:29]
• [43:32]
• [43:49]
• [45:28]

Note: Timestamps are placeholders based on the provided transcript and correspond to the approximate location of the quotes within the episode.

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Conclusion

This episode of The President's Daily Brief provides a comprehensive analysis of the volatile situation in Gaza and the aggressive strides in U.S. energy policy under the Trump administration. Through expert commentary and incisive discussions, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the intersecting dynamics of Middle Eastern peace efforts and America's pursuit of energy independence. The episode underscores the complexities of international diplomacy and the pivotal role of energy strategies in shaping national security and global influence.

Transcript

[Mike Baker]

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[Robert Greenway]

Fries right as they're being scooped into the carton?

[Mike Baker]

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[Robert Greenway]

Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. Tensions are high as the fragile Gaza cease fire deal inches closer to its expiration on Saturday. With no agreement yet on the fate of the remaining hostages, will Israel and Hamas return to the negotiating table or miss another round of war imminent? Former Deputy assistant to the President Robert Greenway joins us to break it all down. Later in the show, President Trump is pushing to expand energy exploration and production to secure America's energy independence. But what does this mean for the country's national security? Well, Daniel Turner, executive director of Power of the Future, he'll join us to discuss. But first, today's situation report. Spotlight the fragile Gaza ceasefire deal. It's set to expire this weekend with no agreement yet on a second phase to secure the release of the remaining hostages. Now, over the past six weeks, as I'm sure you know from following the PDB, Hamas has freed 33 Israeli hostages and five Thai nationals. That's an initial step that mediators hoped would lead to lasting peace. But since January, both sides have accused each other of violating the deal and negotiations have stalled. Hamas is demanding a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and that's a condition that Israel refuses to accept, particularly with reports that Hamas is busy recruiting and training new fighters. That leaves 28 Israeli hostages still believed to be alive with their fate hanging in the balance. Beyond the ceasefire, the question of who will govern post war Gaza, well, that remains unanswered as Israel insists Hamas cannot return to power but has yet to propose an alternative. Joining us now to discuss is Robert Greenway. He's the former deputy assistant to President Trump and director of the Allison center for National Security at the Heritage Foundation. Robert, thanks very much for taking the time.

[Daniel Turner]

Great to be with you.

[Robert Greenway]

Thanks for having me Absolutely, absolutely. Now go to the 30,000 foot level here. I know this is a very broad initial question, but from your perspective, where are we going with this? We're coming up on the end of the first phase of the ceasefire with Israel and Hamas. What next, from your perspective?

[Daniel Turner]

Yeah, it's hard to envision that we're going to get to the next phase of this. And there's a lot of reasons for it, not least of which is what's playing out in real time is that Hamas unfortunately, has little left other than corpses to trade and the way in which they transfer it. All it does is aggravate and exacerbate the tensions for Israel. So where I think we're headed next is frankly, a resurrection of military operations or resumption of military operations at scale and incrementally against Hamas while diplomatic talks are ongoing. But Hamas again has very little leverage left to play. And Israel's interests are inimical to what Hamas is attempting to achieve. And they have greater latitude now that Hezbollah and Iran are less capable and less likely to engage in offensive military operations. So they may have a freer hand in doing so.

[Robert Greenway]

But from, from an internal political situation and from the general population there in Israel, do the people have an appetite for saying, fine, we're drawing a line under this ceasefire? We're, you know, we're, we're re engaging with Hamas. I mean, is that something that, that the population is up for?

[Daniel Turner]

So it splits a near fine line. Right. Everyone in Israel wants a return of the hostages and, or the remains. No one wants to see terrorists released and traded, but they accept the price necessary to pay. But the tolerance is, is drawing very, very close to almost no support to sustain it. Especially when Hamas continues to drip the remains of hostages out and violate terms of the ceasefire agreement and then publicly advertise they're resurrecting their military capability. So the pressure actually is increasing domestically on the Netanyahu government to resume military operations, recognizing that there's very little return that Hamas can provide and they're unlikely to do so. So it's actually moving the opposite direction right now.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah. You just mentioned kind of the revitalization of Hamas. What can you tell us about that? I have heard some reports that they've been busy recruiting and training new members.

[Daniel Turner]

Yeah. So, you know, most of their military capacity has been eliminated as a result of military operations, but clearly there remains remnants, and those are now on display every time they do a transfer of remains. Second, when Israel was pulled and withdrew elements of their forces from Gaza and stopped their overflights for intelligence purposes. Hezbollah is using this, or Hamas, rather, is using this to resurrect their capacity. So they're drawing on a population that is displaced, homeless, and they were aggravated to begin with. They're certainly more likely to be motivated now. And Hamas is the only organized function that has resources and has been dispersing aid and is obtaining additional funds. And as long as that's the case, they're the only show in town. So they are resurrecting their capacity. It'll take time to do so. But this all, of course, comes under the clock, and the Netanyahu government knows that time is not on its side. And so long as Hamas only has remains to offer and will do so in an episodic fashion, the pressure is going to continue to increase for Israel to take care of it. And the support they're getting from Washington under the Trump administration just makes it easier for them to do so.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah, it does seem unlikely if the terms of the second phase of the ceasefire were in part a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, given the notion, or the reports anyway, that Hamas is busy trying to recruit new fighters, training new fighters, it would seem unlikely that the IDF would pull out entirely. Knowing that, you know, this, this cancer is still existing, 100%.

[Daniel Turner]

And not only do I expect there'll be no complete withdrawal, I don't suspect that they'll give up the Philadelphia Corridor, which divides Gaza from the Egyptian border. And for context, this is where the infrastructure to provide a chief amount of the external support of arms, munitions and rockets has historically come from, is very unlikely that they're. They're going to do so, that is essentially the second phase, and no one really anticipated we ever get to that in any, in any case. So I suspect that not only will we not, I think in short order, we could, we were. We would expect. I would expect a reversal.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah. If you could talk to me about that a little bit. If, if the Philadelphia Corridor, right, as a weapons transfer route, has been essentially shut down, then, you know, how do they rearm?

[Daniel Turner]

Well, it's complicated. In theory, they could do it in the. From the maritime domain. It's a little more complicated. It's more challenging to do so, but it is also not unprecedented. Beyond that, they'd have to reuse the materials that are already present. And so it's not a winning proposition. It's also why they want a stop to the intelligence overflight. It's also why they want a complete withdrawal and they want to resume and restore Hamas control over the Philadelphia corridor. And again, Israel is unlikely to do so, and I don't think that they will.

[Robert Greenway]

Okay, so, hey, look, I, I, you know, I hate to sound cynical because everybody wants, under the right terms, everybody wants the, the fighting to stop. The, the, the, the, you know, the terrible situation for the Palestinian civilians to end, for an opportunity to rebuild. You know, everybody in general terms said that, you know, they want that right, and you bring some stability there. But I gotta tell you, I mean, just talking with you now and just seeing what we've seen over the past couple of weeks, it seems like there's almost no likelihood that we're getting a second phase of this ceasefire agreement.

[Daniel Turner]

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[Robert Greenway]

So do like I did and have.

[Daniel Turner]

One of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to [e-mail] Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate, first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees, extra fee, full [e-mail] no, the odds again were extremely remote. I put them at essentially zero when this began. I thought it was encouraging to see the exchange of hostages. And again, new administration in Washington certainly has opened up the door to greater leverage against Hamas. But again, it's an impossible scenario in which Israel would vacate and essentially restore conditions that led to October 7th. That is the least politically acceptable outcome in Israel. Those that supported any sort of two state solution or peace process were exactly the casualties on October 7. And the inhabitants of the kibbutzim, and they were the direct target of their attacks. And so there's no segment of the population now that supports a withdrawal or continued negotiations essentially with Hamas. And so you're right to be cynical about it. And in the end it comes down to motive, means and opportunity, the motive is going to endure on the part of Hamas and the Palestinians. Unfortunately, in Gaza, it's now a matter of denying them the means and the opportunity to restore the capacity to lead to another October 7th attack.

[Robert Greenway]

Okay, so let's, let's play that out then. Let's say that unfortunately on Saturday there's, there's no movement into a second phase. And, you know, the IDF decides, okay, we have no choice. We have to go after and continue to go after Hamas. What does that look like? Because, you know, honestly, look, we've already got, you know, ramped up protests in New York City, you know, pro Hamas protests going on in New York City on, you know, Barnard College campus. And, and you could imagine those stepping up. Again, I don't see the international community, including the UN staying quiet over renewed hostilities and the IDF going in and yet more visuals of destruction and civilian death in Gaza.

[Daniel Turner]

Yeah, well, it's a great point. I say two things. First is, I don't know that a restoration, a resumption of military operations means that they necessarily go on the offensive. This could well look like a continued attrition. And as long as the external support is denied by Israel, you don't necessarily have to do large scale military operations or a significant campaign. What it could look like again is a sort of a siege on Gaza where they would no longer be provided the material to launch rocket attacks and conduct operations against the Israelis. And then you could see surgical operations against its leadership, strikes that were enabled by overflight operations, which almost certainly will continue if the, if the ceasefire discussions break down. I don't know that it means you're going to see a resumption of a ground campaign. And I don't know that that's necessary from an Israeli perspective.

[Robert Greenway]

Now you could imagine if, if, if that was the case, if you've sort of a siege mentality, which again, the optics, not necessarily good, but I take your point. Right. And then specific targeted strikes against, you know, either specific, you know, commanders or lieutenants or whomever, fighters within the, the Strip. If you were to combine that with the, the optic right of increased aid flowing to the civilian population, then perhaps that mitigates to some degree that negative international narrative that always surfaces during these conflicts.

[Daniel Turner]

It might. Again, two observations. First is after the exchange of remains of hostages, there's not that much sympathy left for Hamas. They're losing, I think, a great deal of support and there's a tremendous amount of fatigue on the issue more broadly. Second, that the Israeli populace, by and large feels Significantly aggrieved, certainly now. And I don't think they're going to be quite as affected by international condemnation if military operations in any scale resume. And again, the critical part here is they've got a more supportive partner in Washington this time around. So I don't suspect that the Israeli caucus is going to be affected by international condemnation at this point.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah, no, I take your point. I think they pretty much decided early on after the 7th of October attacks that they are on their own or at least have to proceed on their own. And yes, the dynamics change now with the, with the election and the arrival of the Trump administration. What can you tell us about the level of aid, though, that is flowing or that has been flowing since, say, the ceasefire started? And to what degree are we confident that that aid is, is not being, you know, taken or managed by Hamas?

[Daniel Turner]

Well, on the first point, a fair amount of aid is being introduced into the area and has been for some time. The statistics are public. The difficulty is your second point, which is the distribution. Again, there's limited infrastructure to do it and there's limited capacity to do it. The only governing organization that unfortunately exists inside of Gaza has been Hamas. And so that infrastructure now is increasingly reliant. Now, there were those that would say that UNRWA performed this function in partnership with other NGOs. Many of them have complicated relationships and many were providing material support to Hamas. Some were engaged in operations with Hamas and are no longer capable. So it's the distribution that's a problem, but it's not a volume issue really. At the end of the day, it's just reinforcing Hamas position as the only governing entity in Gaza that serves no one's interest, actually.

[Robert Greenway]

Okay, Robert, if, if you wouldn't mind staying right where you are. Don't move, don't move. We got to take a quick break and then we'll be back with more from Robert Greenway. We'll be talking continuing about Gaza, but I also want to talk with Robert about Ukraine, but we have to take a quick break. We'll be right back with more of the situation report. Yeah, we've all been there, right? Tossing, turning, struggling to get quality sleep. You know what I'm talking about? I get it. When you don't sleep well, it's not just about feeling tired the next day. It's not. It makes you foggy at work, it makes you short tempered with people, even people you actually like, and it kills your energy. I've been there and I needed something, well, something that actually worked. And that's where Beam's Dream Powder comes in. Look, this, this is not some gimmick. This is a science backed healthy hot cocoa that actually helps you sleep better. I've tried it and it does make a real difference. And it comes in great flavors, which is important, right? Sea salt, caramel, brownie batter, vanilla chai and my personal favorite, do you know what that is? Well, it's cinnamon cocoa. Yeah, of course, it's only 15 calories per serving and zero sugar, which is also important so you can get a better sleep without the guilt. Now, Dream powder is packed with natural ingredients. Reishi, magnesium, melatonin, all designed to help you fall asleep faster and stay asleep longer without waking up groggy. You, you just mix it with hot water and milk before bed and you're good to go. Bob's your uncle. It couldn't be easier. If you want to try Beam's best selling Dream Powder, get up to 40% off for a limited time when you go to shopbeam.com mike that's M I K E just like you imagine and use code mike at checkout. That's shop Beam b e a m.com mike and use the code mike for up to 40% off.

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[Robert Greenway]

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[Daniel Turner]

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[Robert Greenway]

Welcome back to the Situation report. Joining me again is Robert Greenway, former deputy assistant to the President and director of the Allison center for National Security at the Heritage Foundation. Robert, thanks very much. We were talking about Gaza. I've got one more question for you and probably kind of falls into the soft science category. And then I was hoping to touch on briefly Ukraine, but with with Gaza, is there any indication that the Palestinian civilian population is moving away from Hamas because we have this issue of long term. If we get any type of stability or peace settlement there, we have this issue of governance. So to what degree, from your perspective, does the Palestinian civilian population, are they still all in on Hamas or have they been distancing themselves?

[Daniel Turner]

Insofar as we know. It's a difficult question, right, to poll any population, Certainly in a conflict scenario, as far as we know, Hamas remains the overwhelmingly popular choice. But I think that's not so much about support for Hamas is a lack of a credible alternative and the conditions themselves. So it is an unknowable question. But I think at the end of the day an alternative has to be introduced. Unfortunately, none has materialized. The Palestinian Authority itself is serving now two decades of a four year term. So Mahmoud Abbas has his own popularity issues in the West Bank. So I think the challenge is there is no emerging Palestinian leadership either in Judea Samaria, west bank or in Gaza.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah, well, for anybody listening to our conversation, I don't imagine they come away with an awful lot of hope. But hope is never really what you want to hang your, your foreign policy on. But if you look at just the unlikely, you know, opportunity for a second phase of the ceasefire, if you look at the fact that no credible governance, alternative governance seems to be taking shape, you know, I think you're absolutely right. I think what we're looking at is, if not a return to hostilities, I think we're looking at continued, however you want to refer to it, occupation or our presence of the IDF in Gaza. And we may well be just looking at kicking the can down the road here.

[Daniel Turner]

Yeah, I think the only thing that's changed the cause for optimism is I think there's a shift inside the region that recognizes that more has to be done. And the graveyard of ideas that that is the Israel, Palestine question is no longer, you know, we're no longer resurrecting and exhuming these bodies and attempting to oppose a solution on them, I think is a recognition that something different has to be done. President Trump has shifted the debate and I think the region knows it. What I would expect is there be greater regional participation in the solution. I think that's a good thing. That gives me at least some optimism for the future.

[Robert Greenway]

Okay, that's really interesting. I'm glad you brought that point up. Are you optimistic about the upcoming, it's actually coming up very shortly of the Arab summit in Riyadh.

[Daniel Turner]

I think that's a, that's a part of it. I would expect too there'll be high level engagement with the Trump administration, perhaps at a state level in the near term. And I think all that is good. I think at the next summit they're going to discuss what options are available. They're committed to a solution. They have a couple of questions. But again, I think we're in a different place. The negotiation has shifted. We're not looking at resurrecting old ideas that haven't worked and aren't likely to. And I think now we're looking at new ideas that might. That's a good thing.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah, I agree with you. Look, people, you know, they stared in amazement when President Trump threw out that idea of US Ownership of Gaza and turning it into, you know, a resort area, Riviera. You know, I never see a scenario where 2.3 million Palestinian refugees are going to suddenly move out of Gaza and the Egyptians and Jordanians and others will welcome them. And I don't also see a scenario where, you know, from a political perspective here in the US anybody would agree to taking 10 to 15 year ownership of Gaza. But the benefit, I think, to your point, is that it, it provoked a response from the Arab states. And I think that has been very helpful if I could, in the remaining time that we've got. Robert, let's shift over to Ukraine and you know, with, with President Trump sitting down with President Zelensky from Ukraine, ostensibly to talk about the mineral steel, but, you know, what do you think that's going to deliver as far as a discussion?

[Daniel Turner]

I think four important things have been initiated by the current administration. First is the commitment to ending the conflict as a result of the first time to bring the Russians, bring Putin and his team to the table to have discussions. I think that's useful. I think that's necessary. Second, you know, he's reached out to all parties and I think on the European side of it, including Zelensky, who has just arrived, I think, at Joint Base Andrews while we're speaking. That's also, I think, a good and necessary thing. The third is the economic agreement, which I think in my understanding is actually larger than mineral deposits inside Ukraine, but it could encompass areas of energy and maybe even technology. I think that's important too, to establish an economically viable path for Ukraine, not just now, but post conflict, and a relationship with the United States that will protect and defend serves an important interest. Lastly, I think we've seen the Trump administration expand the scope of the problem to where US Interests reside, namely cooperation between Russia, China and frankly, not yet mentioned, but Iran and North Korea. All of that is, are grave threats to US Interests. All of that are part of the conversation and negotiation and again, have to be from a US Perspective. So I think, you know, it's early to see which form it's going to take, but I think so far at least, we're seeing movement toward peace, which before, of course, after three long years, we've seen none of.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah. What do you make of the, of the talking point that's come out of Moscow over the years? And certainly it's been picked up by some, even in the US for the most part. The idea that, you know, the west is responsible for this war. They forced Putin's hand, you know, by, by this move towards our potential move towards Naito for Ukraine. What do you make of that?

[Daniel Turner]

I think it's, it's ridiculous. Of course, on its face, they are clearly the aggressors here, as they were in 2014. But I also know that if you're trying to negotiate a deal and you're focused on the outcome, then the outcome is what matters most. So, you know, the US Administration and others may find themselves in uncomfortable positions doing awkward things, but if it gets to the right outcome and so be it. But clearly on its face, it's an absurd statement.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah, agreed. Robert. Listen, the world's in a bit of a chaotic situation right now. We've got a lot more that we could be covering. I barely touched the list of questions that I've got written down here for you, but I want to be mindful of your time. So I hope next time we, we call you that, you'll kill, you'll pick up the phone and agree to come back on the Situation report. Next. Well, we turn to President Trump's energy strategy. He's pushing to ramp up domestic production on federal lands and waters, aiming to strengthen US Energy independence. Well, that's a good idea, but what does that mean for America's national security? Daniel Turner from Power the Future joins us next.

[Daniel Turner]

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[Robert Greenway]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Energy policy. It's not just about gas prices. Right. It's about national security. That makes sense. The ability to produce and control our own energy supply means fewer dependencies, fewer vulnerabilities and a stronger position on the world stage. Now, one of President Trump's first moves back in office, it was a major push to ramp up domestic US Energy production. He's calling it a matter of national interest. And he's not wrong, arguing that unleashing America's natural resources isn't just about economic growth, but it's about military strength and global security. His executive order lays it out plainly. Energy independence means less reliance on foreign powers and more leverage in global conflicts. Now, that's a sharp contrast to the last administration's approach, which saw the US Scaling back drilling and turning to imports, even from adversaries. Trump says this shift will bring prosperity back to American workers. But beyond the economy, what does this mean for America's standing in the world and how does it position America in the world of fossil fuels versus clean energy? Well, joining us now is Daniel Turner. He's the executive director of Power of the Future. Daniel, thanks very much for being here today on THE SITUATION report.

[Mike Baker]

Great to be with you. Thank you.

[Robert Greenway]

Let's, let's start with a very broad question here. What's your perspective on on where we're going with the energy policy? Are you pleased with the what you've heard so far and what do you expect in terms of pushback from the other side, politically?

[Mike Baker]

The other side, that's all they know how to do, is push back. They hate the energy industry. They are beholden to the climate agenda. So I expect nothing from them. But I'm kind of at the point that I don't really care about their position because they've brought nothing but misery to the American people and quite frankly, to the world. I'm happy with President Trump's policy agenda. I knew what to expect and I knew it was going to be bold because it was first term. What I'm also really proud of and surprised of are how fast congressional Republicans are working because normally not everyone moves at the speed of Trump. Just today, the Senate finally, I should even say finally. We're only a couple of weeks into the session, but today the Senate repealed Joe Biden's tax on natural gas. Why are we taxing natural gas? Because he hates the industry and he wanted more money, that's why. So there's a lot of positive momentum. It's going to take a while to kick in. Right. You're not going to feel it in your pocketbook tomorrow, but we are headed in a really, really bright direction.

[Daniel Turner]

Yeah.

[Robert Greenway]

You, you wrote an interesting piece recently that touched on the Keystone pipeline and the complexity of that, both in terms of what the Biden administration did, and trying to rejuvenate it. Talk to me about that, if you could.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah. You know, it's great to see the president support this, this pipeline again. And it's ridiculous that it was ever made a political football. But I don't think if you're in the energy space just because the President says you should start building it again, you're going to jump in with both feet. What Joe Biden did, which really was unprecedented, is now he introduced the level of fear on any major infrastructure project that if you don't finish a project before a presidential cycle, you could have it ripped out from under you. And the really pernicious thing about what Joe Biden did, Keystone didn't make this decision with Donald Trump. They made it with the American government. The full faith and credit of the American government. And now the private sector is worried. So imagine someone does restart the pipeline. Right. Think of the billions of dollars that it will take in financing. Think of how much work it is to get 1200 miles of pipeline constructed and moved into place and personnel. But now it's 2028, and Gavin Newsom is running for president and all he does is say, and when I'm elected, I am going to shut down that pipeline. Well, there's your investment. Right.

[Robert Greenway]

I can't. I. You know what I can't believe, Daniel? That you think Gavin Newsom has presidential ambitions. I just don't. That doesn't make any sense at all.

[Mike Baker]

But going back to Keystone, this is what Joe Biden did. Who's going to invest multibillion dollars in a huge infrastructure project if the next guy is going to rip it out from under you?

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah. And how, how difficult is it when we're. Because we have to roll back some regulatory, you know, policies from previous administration. How difficult is that process?

[Mike Baker]

Pretty easy. Especially when it comes to Keystone. The reason why Keystone was tricky is because it crosses an international border. And to get a little nerdy on you for a second, the only reason why the President is involved in that is because 100 and God knows how many years ago, when the very first telegraph wires arrived from Europe and they got to New York and someone said, are we just allowed to bring these onshore? Right. Like, what, do we need permission? And no one knew what to do. And someone said, ask the State Department. It's from England, maybe the State Department. So every time you hear Keystone, and they say, well, the State Department gave permission. For some reason, they gave that authority to, to the State Department. An easy way to solve this Congress should take it back. Why is the State Department making decisions on pipelines? It shouldn't. That should be a congressional decision. So there are fixes. But my point is we need a fix before any private sector company invests billions in this project.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah. By the way, I don't mind you getting dirty. I mean, look, I don't notice, but I'm wearing a cardigan, so. Yeah, it looks like I just came from the chess club meeting. Sorry. So I digress, don't I? Okay, let's, let's switch gears just slightly. We're still talking about energy. Talk to me about nuclear power in the country and where you expect that to go.

[Mike Baker]

We've definitely got the administration in support of it. And Energy Secretary Wright actually started in the nuclear space. He knows the nuclear space very, very well and President Trump's talked about it. When you look especially at remote communities, I had a recent conversation with the governor of Alaska on this. To build infrastructure to get coal or natural gas, that's almost impossible. But you can build a self sustaining, self contained, small micronuclear plant and bring power to rural communities. The problem though is again, can you get it built before the next presidential cycle? And that's why you're going to have the same level of fear. Nuclear, for some reason scares people. It shouldn't.

[Robert Greenway]

The question is can. I mean, I'm asking you this question. Can we get it built before the next presidential cycle?

[Daniel Turner]

Yeah.

[Mike Baker]

A small micro nukes, I think you can get done around three and a half years. Yeah. And it's going to be really pushing to make that happen. But there's no reason why we should have this level of fear. We have so many raw materials. We have the uranium for nuclear in Alaska, we have so many raw materials in this country that energy should be an afterthought. Electricity bills should almost be free. And I don't mean that in a socialist way, like a Bernie Sanders healthcare way. I mean, it should be so abundant and inexpensive that your utility bills, like our grandparents back in the day, never worried about the utility bill. It's only recently it's become expensive. And that's because of these communist green policies.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah. Well, I mean, I guess to your point about the uranium, one of the problems that we've had for quite some time.

[Daniel Turner]

Right.

[Robert Greenway]

I mean, not just with the Biden administration, but going back a number of years is we've got abundant right. Mineral resources in the U.S. but the problem is trying to get them out of the ground, trying to get approval. And then that process, you Know, the mining industry, you know, has basically been just, just constantly on the back foot because it just takes forever to try to get approval, if you can even get it.

[Mike Baker]

Exactly. And I think the, the energy emergency that President declared will hopefully thwart a lot of these efforts by these radical green groups, a lot of whom were funded by Foreign Agen. Because if you want to open Pebble Mine in Alaska, which is a huge copper deposit or Twin Metals in Minnesota, another huge copper deposit. Well, if you have copper mines that are run by nine year old girls and slave labor, right. You're making really good margins. Do I want to compete? Right. Do I want a copper money? I want to lower the price of copper worldwide as a commodity? Hell no. So it's easiest to fund green groups to scare the crap out of people about climate change when all you're doing is just protecting your overseas investment. Tom Si Stire, who ran for president on this platform, we're going to Stop Fossil Fuels, is one of the largest investors in overseas mining. So he's fine with a nine year old child in Indonesia, but he will be damned if a man in West Virginia mined coal.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah, no, I'm glad you raised it. Look, I've seen some mining operations overseas and they are extremely nasty. Right. And it's a tough business wherever you're doing it, but nobody does it in a cleaner or, or, you know, more environmentally, you know, protected way than we do it in the U.S. right. And again, okay, that doesn't take away from the fact that, yeah, it's mining, it's, it's, you know, it's got some drawbacks. But so I take your point and I think also one of the interesting aspects of, of this is, is the foreign influence. Right. On, on, on mining in the US and not to get nerdy on you, Daniel, but I'm about to. But you know, as an example, the Chinese regime, right, this is in their best interest. So what they've identified over the years is that they may not be able to shift federal policy in the U.S. but if they go after in an indirect way through what appear to be grassroots operations, right, some community organization that's targeting, you know, phosphate mining in Florida, whatever it may be, and then they can influence local and state policies. Right? And if they say, okay, no, we're going to because they believe it's community driven, right, rather than there's influence from overseas, from, you know, countries that don't have our interest at stake, then you know, they can impact this. Next thing you know, the State House in a particular location is saying, no, we're not going to authorize this mining that benefits who? The Chinese regime?

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, exactly. It's such a great point. And we've done a number of congressional studies or studies for Congress that we bring to legislators that I knock on doors and try to get them to pay attention. China controls 95% of the rare earth and metals and minerals industry worldwide. Now, they operate in Chile, they operate in sub Saharan Africa, but they are mines owned and operated by the Communist Chinese. And so we say, you know, let's be green, let's build solar panels. Well, the solar panels are made in Communist China with those raw materials, and somehow that's considered green. I don't know why the Chinese can burn coal to make solar panels, but we can't burn coal to make electricity. And so China absolutely pushes this agenda. You see them at the World Economic Forum, you see them at these climate conferences saying, we applaud the Paris Accord. We applaud people caring about the climate. Of course they do. They're making a boatload of money off of the west being petrified of climate change.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah, absolutely. And every, every, every week opening up a new coal plant. Daniel, if you'll stay right there. Right. We have to take a quick break. Don't go anywhere. And we'll be back with Daniel Turner here on the Situation Report. Stick around. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me again is Daniel Turner. He's the founder and executive director of Power of the Future. Daniel, thanks very much for sticking around. Appreciate it. Let's talk just briefly. Are you seeing any shift in the positioning of oil and gas companies? And by that I mean, look, you know, for the past number of years, they've gone sort of all in on clean energy, oftentimes to the detriment of the, the, the, the, the health and, and the welfare of the company itself. Right. Are you seeing any, any changes in that sort of direction?

[Mike Baker]

Well, BP made a big announcement yesterday that they were investing less of their resources into renewables and they were doubling down on, on BP Petroleum. Right. They were going back to, to drilling. And of course they are, because the renewables, as soon as the money dries up, the subsidies from the government, the renewables are absolutely valueless. They don't work, they're terribly expensive, they break down, they're hard to maintain. They're made in Communist China with slave labor. Outside of that, they're great. Right. Outside of that, they're a wonderful thing. So, yeah, I think, and especially with this administration, look, this is an industry that would like to work on volume and be left alone. And when the first Trump administration, when they were allowed to operate, what are the oil and gas industry, especially here in America, what did it do? It produced more for less, for a greater number of people at a lower price point. It lowered emissions. And I don't like. I think the emissions games are all lies, but I'll just play their game because that's the metric we have to go by. But they lowered emissions. It was only until Joe Biden came into power that we started hearing these accusations of price gouging and profiteering and greed. How come the big oil guy in his first term, you never heard of accusations of that? And that's because the industry wants to operate on volume. And if they're able to have permitting and access, if they're able to drill, they're going to do more of it, and you're going to have more oil and gas and at lower price points. And then all of your goods and services are going to become less expensive as well. It's a proven formula. So I think the industry itself will get on board, even if they've got a couple of crazy board members who they put on to appease Greta Thunberg, right, who are going to say, what about the climate? You know, I wish it would be bolder and kick them out.

[Robert Greenway]

Is it really important to appease Greta? I don't know.

[Mike Baker]

Yes, because she'll bring her crazy minions and they'll throw bricks at your, at your, at your office all the time.

[Robert Greenway]

Wait a minute. Wait, wait, wait, wait. Daniel, Greta's got minions? See, I didn't realize the situation had gotten that dangerous.

[Mike Baker]

The best thing about the current state of disaster of the, of the left in general is that climate change is no longer the cool thing. And granted, it's winter. Right. No one lays down in traffic in the cold, so. Well, they'll come back when it gets hot. But right now, all the momentum, all the enthusiasm is either protecting government bureaucrats or hating on Israel. That's where all the crazies are. So maybe if they're all doing their other nonsense, the oil and gas industry and the coal industry can start thriving again.

[Robert Greenway]

It's really hard to figure out where you stand on all of this because you keep mincing words, but let's. Yeah, so where, where does that leave clean energy, though? I mean, from your perspective, you know, it plays a role, but, you know, what, what type of role? In sort of that, you know, let's do everything concept.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I don't believe in that. I don't believe in all of the above. I think phrases like clean and green are made up. And the people who want to push their product invented the phraseology and asks us to start speaking their language. I don't support all of the above because all of the above doesn't work. And this is where I have a lot of argument with like, elected leaders. And they'll say, well, you know, if you look right now, 30% of our electricity comes from renewables. Like, well, right now because the wind is blowing. But what happens tomorrow, right? Is the wind gonna blow? You can't predict that. Is the sun gonna shine? You can't predict that. And because we can't predict it and you cannot prepare for it as a commodity, the prices are unstable. And we have felt that nationwide electricity prices, utility prices are up 30% in Europe, they're up 1000% over the last couple of years now they have capped them for consumers, but the government's just paying the difference. They're paying a thousand dollars, a thousand euro per, per megawatt hour in, in Europe now. They capped it at 300. But it's absurd. Why? Because they're all in on renewable. And there's never, no matter how many wind turbines you build, if the wind doesn't blow, they are useless. And so why would I ever support an energy policy that says let's get more of the variable in our life. Part of being a good business or anything is getting rid of variables. And wind and solar are crappy, awful, made with slave labor, foreign, unreliable, intermittent. I would rip them out of every, every all across the country and get.

[Robert Greenway]

Rid of them again. I just can't figure out where you stand on an issue. But. So that's, so let's, let's look at that. If we could mining just for a second. We talked about it briefly in the previous segment, but, you know, some big news in, in mining, at least in the US Was this discovery, I guess it's been known for some time, of the lithium deposits in Arkansas. You look at that, you look at the, the criticality of lithium as a mineral for batteries, for instance, and you know, to what degree do you imagine that we'll be able to push back regulatory policies on mining and take advantage of, of a find like that?

[Mike Baker]

It's huge, and it really is a game chamber and that changer. And these are the raw materials that we need for the technologies that we're using. And unless we're willing to alter our lifestyle and give up our smartphones and our, and our smart TVs. We're going to need more lithium. And wouldn't you rather get it from America that will have a nod to the environment. I mean, I'm talking to you from my sheep farm in rural Virginia. I am an environmentalist. I live, you know, in nature. I have a mama farmer. Where do we protect the earth and the land and the water better in America? We want the American jobs and not four year old children in the Congo mining our lithium. But what's going to happen is that, and this is the way the left operates, the environmental left, as soon as they start getting the permits, they are going to find a short haired grouse that is on the endangered list. They're going to find a native tribe that they'll, they will find a reason to try to shut this down. And this is all paid for activism for nefarious purposes and they have to be defeated. And that's what we try to do at Power the future.

[Robert Greenway]

Yeah, I understand that. Yeah. I'm out in Idaho where home of the sage grouse, which, yeah, it's, it's remarkable. Tell me a little bit about power of the future if you could. It's again you talked about just a second ago. But you know, what's the, what's the focus?

[Mike Baker]

I started the organization a couple years ago because I live near Appalachia and it's a lot of old, retired, destroyed coal mines. And it started because of Barack Obama's war on coal. And if you recall, we're going back some time, but when he ran for president in 08, he said, I'm not going to make coal illegal. But I'll tell you this, if you own a coal mine, you're going to go bankrupt. And everyone applauded and everyone gave him awards and said how great. But if you're one of those 4,000 coal jobs in a rural town all across America, your livelihood was destroyed and no one fought for you. In fact, they made fun of you and they told you to learn to code, right? Start the gig economy. Their own representatives turned on them, right? Look at Pennsylvania. Thank God Dave McCormick won. Their own senators turned their back on coal miners in Pennsylvania because they're not cool and sophisticated. And yet we need coal. We use more coal than ever because you can't make cement and steel. And all these products around us are all made or forged from products that come from coal. So all we did was just destroy Americans. And it bothered me so much that I had to get off the sidelines and I would have these conversations with people in the political space. And I appreciate you saying I don't mince words. I wanted to speak this forcefully. Everyone said you can't say that. Whoa, you can't call these guys communists. They just care about the earth. And I'd say, no, they're not. They're evil. They're misanthropic. They hate this country. They need to be defeated. I got tired of being told what I cannot say, so I started my own organization to say the factual things about this space and to protect those. Be a voice for those rural Americans across the country whose lives have been destroyed by a climate lie.

[Robert Greenway]

That is really fascinating, Daniel, and I give you a lot of credit for taking this on. I'm reminded of the push for banning gas powered vehicles as an example and going to an all EV future. And somehow the power grid was going to be able to support that. And somehow people imagined that, I don't know, that power didn't come from a coal plant or other sources other than just a wind farm somewhere. Look, Daniel, this has been fascinating. I think there's a lot more that we could be covering and I hope we have that opportunity down the road. Daniel Turner, Executive Director of Power the Future. Listen, thank you again very much for joining us here on the Situation Report. Well, that is all the time we have for this week's PDB Situation Report. Now look, if you have any questions or you have any comments or maybe you've got a humorous anecdote or a joke and you'd like to share it, well, just reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com I've told you this before, and I mean it. The highlight of every week at here at PDB headquarters and I happen to be at the secret compound right now, is when Carl the Mailman drops off another sack of your postcards, your emails, your faxes, your telegrams, your candy grams. And every month our amazing team, including the above average interns, select a bunch of your questions and we produce one of our critically acclaimed Ask Me Anything episodes. So keep those cards and letters coming, folks. Finally, to listen to the podcast of the show ad free. Well, you probably know what to do. Become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and until next time, well, you know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hello, it is Ryan and I was on a flight the other day playing one of my favorite social spin slot games on jumbacasino.com. i looked over the person sitting next to me. And you know what they were doing? They were also playing Chumba Casino. Coincidence? I think not. Everybody's loving having fun with it. Chumba Casino is home to hundreds of casino style games that you can play for free, anytime, anywhere, even at 30,000ft. So sign up [e-mail] to claim your free welcome bonus. That's chumbacasino.com and live the Chumba life. No purchase necessary.

[Daniel Turner]

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