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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | March 22nd, 2025: Trump’s Venezuelan Gang Deportations & U.S. Hits Back At Houthis
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- [00:01]
Art Arthur
This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations.
- [00:41]
Mike Baker
Welcome to the PDB Situation report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll start off today with the controversy behind the administration's deportation of hundreds of alleged gang members to El Salvador using a law that dates back all the way to 1798. Arthur of the center for Immigration Studies will join us to provide insight later in the show. The US Continues to pound the Iran backed Houthi rebels as President Trump vows that the Yemen based group will be annihilated for attacking US Ships. Editor of the foundation for Defense of Democracy's Long War Journal Bill Roggio will help us sort out what's happening there. And there's a lot to unpack. But first, our situation report. Spotlight the Trump administration has deported over 200 alleged Venezuelan gang members to El Salvador, citing national security concerns and invoking the rarely used Alien enemies Act of 1798. I believe the last time it was used was some 80 years ago during World War II. Officials say these individuals are linked to the Trenda Aragua gang, a TDA gang, and have been sent to El Salvador's notorious seacot facility. That's the high security mega prison known for housing violent gang members. A federal judge attempted to halt the move while the planes were reportedly still in the air heading to El Salvador. But the administration pushed forward, sparking outrage from advocates who argue many of the deportees have no criminal ties. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro called it a, quote, kidnapping. Well, he's certainly on moral high ground to judge anyone, while the White House insists it's a tough but necessary measure to ensure national security. Joining me now is the resident fellow in law and policy at the center for Immigration Studies, Art Arthur. Thanks very much for joining us here on the PDB Situation Report.
- [02:37]
Art Arthur
Thanks so much for having me, Mike.
- [02:38]
Mike Baker
Absolutely. Well, let's, I guess let's start at 30,000ft. Talk to me about the recent deportation, the Venezuelans, the TDA gang members. Give us a sort of an overview of how that took place and then we can kind of dive into the degree to which those sort of actions are going to be stopped by the judges.
- [03:02]
Art Arthur
So generally when aliens are deported from the United States, they're deported under the Immigration and Nationality act, the INA or title late as the Biden administration would refer to it. And you know, that's the baseline of laws that we use to determine who can come in, you know, who should be sent away, and you know, who should be allowed to stay. But with respect to the Trend Aragua members who were sent by the Trump administration to El Salvador, those individuals were actually expelled under a different authority, the Alien enemies Act of 1798, a law that was passed during a period of time when France was in the throes of a revolution and the United States was afraid that it was going to get dragged into that war. And it allows the president to detain and deport individuals who are nationals of countries with which we're at war, or alternatively, individuals who have invaded the United States. And the president's contention is that Trend Aragua is such a well organized criminal cartel, transnational criminal organization, that they function sort of as a state and also that they have ties to the regime of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro. And thus the President concludes that the authorities in the Alien Enemies act are sufficient to allow him to take those Trend Aragua members and send them outside the United States.
- [04:31]
Mike Baker
What do you think? Is that, is that a correct interpretation?
- [04:34]
Art Arthur
I think it's definitely an authority that the president has. I think that it's appropriate for him to make a determination. He knows a whole lot more about how Trend Aragua operates and what relationship they have with the socialist government in Venezuela than most of the American people do. And Mike, most of that information is, you know, highly sensitive information, law enforcement sensitive stuff, national security related information. And in fact, national security has been one of those things that's come up in the court case against this. So, you know, it's. I'm not going to say it's a stretch, but it's definitely a novel interpretation of the Alien Enemies act, which I think was last used during World War II when certain German, Italian and primarily Japanese Americans were sent to internment camps. Now, again, none of these people are being detained in the United States. They're being sent out of the United States.
- [05:34]
Mike Baker
And that then leads all sorts of questions. Like in the aftermath of this, even while the, while the planes were reportedly still in the air, there was obviously a ruling from a, I believe, a trial judge who said, nope, can't do it. Turn those flights around, bring them back to the States. Now does that. I mean, I guess we're dipping into all sorts of legal issues here, but the White House, it was interesting, they came back and said well, you. You know, I'm sorry, but a trial judge doesn't have authority over foreign policy decisions, which is how they couched this when they started seeing the legal pushback. To what degree do you think it's appropriate for the justice system to step in? I mean, we are talking about something that hasn't been invoked for. For what you pointed out, 80 years or so.
- [06:23]
Art Arthur
Yeah. The judge in question is Judge Jeb Boberg, who's the chief judge of the District Court for the District of Columbia, and he is considering a lawsuit, a challenge to the president's use of the Alie Enemies act to deport individuals from the United States. And generally, when the judiciary gets involved in any situation like this, the first thing that they do is tell everybody to just stop, hold on, so that the court has the opportunity to determine what's going on. He issued a temporary restraining order, which is, you know, that sort of just stopped for a moment so I could figure it out. As it relates to the foreign policy of the United States. And Judge Boasberg's order gets into a question that the Trump administration had to deal with the first time around, and that is nationwide or universal injunctions. Generally, when you go into a court of law, you're arguing your case on behalf of yourself. Apparently, none of the people who were actually parties to that suit were removed from the United States. The individuals who were removed from the United States were a larger class of individuals who weren't actually named part parties. So, you know, the pushback from the Trump administration, in part has to do with those universal jurisdictions, particularly given the fact that apparently these planes were outside of US Airspace and therefore outside of the United States. But, you know, whenever the president attempts to, you know, use any of these novel authorities, he's going to get pushback. The question is how quickly the courts can move. The first time around, courts didn't move very quickly. And so a lot of Trump administration policies were simply sidelined indefinitely. This time around, the administration's interested in having everything move a lot more quickly. Having the courts issue decisions were alternatively, not act at all and just let things proceed while the dust settles. So we're going to see how that ends up. All of this is going to the Supreme Court.
- [08:23]
Mike Baker
Okay. Yeah, that's. That seems where it's headed. Okay. If you could, I suppose, argue. Now, I'm not a. I'm not a. An attorney, but I have watched a lot of. Of attorney shows on tv, and you could argue, I suppose, that once those deportees say you've Got a two plane loads of TDA gang members once they leave U. S. Airspace. Right. They're not, you know, U. S. Citizens by any stretch of the imagination. So they're out of jurisdiction of U.S. courts. And so therefore, once they're sitting in a prison in El Salvador, the US justice system, you could argue, doesn't have any sway over what happens to them.
- [09:07]
Art Arthur
Yeah, that's certainly the position that the Trump administration is making, you know, that, you know, courts don't get to decide foreign policy, courts don't get to decide defense policy. So when it comes to certain, you know, critical, you know, plenary powers that the president has, the power of the judiciary is extremely limited. In fact, even the Supreme Court has found that in the past in some very, you know, high profile cases. So yeah, I mean, you know, the idea that a federal judge has the ability to order the United States government to return a person who's not a United States citizen from a prison that's not run by the United States definitely, you know, wades into some novel legal issues. Again, that's why I said the Supreme Court's ultimately going to have to decide this because, you know, short term, no solution is going to make everybody happy. And you know, they're the Supreme Court not because of the best, but because they're the last.
- [10:06]
Mike Baker
Yeah, yeah. Well, you've, you know what, you, you've won our statement of the obvious award that no decision is going to make everybody happy. And you're absolutely correct. Look, is it, is it interesting to you that this maneuver, using the 1798 act and, and sending off these, these TDA gang members, I believe there are also a little over a dozen MS, 13 members. Puts the Democrats in a position of having to try to fight for their, their rights in a way.
- [10:40]
Art Arthur
Yeah. And you know, that's an interesting thing, Mike. One of the things that Donald Trump has done during his second go round is that he's identified a lot of what we call in politics 80, 20 issues where about 80% of the American people feel one way and a minority of people feel the other as it relates to the rights that, you know, gang members or cartel members or, you know, it's important to note the TDA isn't just a gang. They were a well organized group that started in a prison in Venezuela and since has become a criminal enterprise of the highest order. You know, there aren't many Americans who are going to be concerned about the rights those individuals have and even fewer Americans who want those individuals to remain in the United States. So I think that politically the president is on great grounds. You know, picking a fight with the chief justice of the Supreme Court may not win him many friends, but I think that the American people want somebody who's going to do something to respond to the crime and especially the ailing crime that we've seen over the last four years. And that's definitely the marching orders the president got from the election and he's followed.
- [11:46]
Mike Baker
Okay.
- [11:47]
Art Arthur
Yeah.
- [11:47]
Mike Baker
All right. If you could stay with us, just don't, don't go anywhere. We've got to take a quick break right now, but we'll be back with Art Arthur. We're going to dive into this topic. There's a lot to uncover here. And we'll be right back with the Situation report.
- [12:03]
Bill Rogio
Like a bull in a china shop, Donald Trump came in to drain the swamp in Washington, D.C. but with his bold reform and rejuvenation agenda comes so many legal questions nationwide. Injunctions, are they constitutional? What's the deal with birthright citizenship? What about the administrative state? Can he actually clean the deep state and end the politicization of the federal bureaucracy? I'm Josh Hammer, host of America on Trial with Josh Hammer. Subscribe to America on Trial with Josh Hammer for your daily updates on all of these. Question Like a bowl in a china shop, Donald Trump came in to drain the swamp in Washington, D.C. but with his bold reform and rejuvenation agenda comes so many legal questions nationwide. Injunctions, are they constitutional? What's the deal with birthright citizenship? What about the administrative state? Can he actually clean the deep state and end the politicization of the federal bureaucracy? I'm Josh Hammer, host of America on Trial with Josh Hammer. Subscribe to America on Trial with Josh Hammer for your daily updates on all of these questions and more. Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest. Life comes at you fast, which is why it's important to find some time to relax a little you time. Enter Chumba Casino. With no download required. You can jump on anytime, anywhere for the chance to redeem some serious prizes. So treat yourself with Chumba Casino and play over 100 online casino style games, all for free. Go to Chumbacasino.com to collect your free welcome bonus. Sponsored by Chumba Casino.
- [13:27]
Art Arthur
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- [13:33]
Mike Baker
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is a resident fellow in Law and policy at the center for Immigration Studies, Art Arthur. Art, thanks very much for sticking around. I got a couple more questions about this this TDA Venezuelan El Salvador deportation issue, because I do find, and I think a lot of people find it fascinating. And then I want to kind of veer off towards the Middle East. But with this is is this incident where we had a couple of planeloads reportedly of TDA gang members, some Ms. 13 members sent off to El Salvador where Bukele the President then put them into a high security prison. Is that the first and only incident so far where the White House has used the Alien Enemies Act?
- [14:21]
Art Arthur
It's the only one that I'm aware of. I anticipate that there are probably more TDA members and perhaps some other cartel members. It's important to note that the President has Secretary of State Marco Rubio, DHS Secretary Christine Pam Bondi, the Attorney General with identifying groups that should be designated as foreign terrorist organizations. And that includes cartels. You know, the Mexican cartels, we think about cjng, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Sinaloa Gulf, some other smaller cartels. Those have now been designated. And the President could potentially use that same authority because his conclusion is those cartels have also invaded the United States. So stay tuned. There might be more flights taken off soon.
- [15:11]
Mike Baker
Is that an important link? I mean, so you in a sense, one has to follow or one follows the other. So you can designate as a foreign terrorist organization and then you can use that as your foundation for justifying the deportation under the Alien Enemies Act.
- [15:25]
Art Arthur
That's one of the hooks. The other hook is this whole idea of invasion that these groups have, you know, that they are, you know, de facto political organizations and that they have invaded the United States. So that's the hook that the President's using. Again, it's a novel hook. I can't say that it's completely fallacious hook or that it has no, you know, legal standing. You know, this is definitely a power that, you know, at the time that the Alien Enemies act was passed, we were concerned about pirates, we were concerned about smuggling. There were cases, you know, from Alexandria, Virginia involving smugglers. So, you know, this is, you know, definitely one of those things that your textualist judiciary is going to be very interested in exploring and determining whether this is an appropriate use of the power.
- [16:15]
Mike Baker
Okay, well, now you've got me and a number of PDB listeners making notes and to look up the meaning of the word fallacious at some point. So thank you very much for that. Now is the problem again, and this will be the last question then. And like I said, I, I, we've got a very other very interesting Other topic here to pursue. But is the primary concern, or are they forming as their primary concern from the Democrat side? Again, not to get, you know, turn this into a political conversation, but I am fascinated by the pushback. The optic is unusual.
- [16:51]
Art Arthur
Right.
- [16:51]
Mike Baker
He's. The Trump administration has kind of now set up a situation where the Democrats are apparently, or it appears at first glance, fighting for the rights of TDA or MS.13 gang members. And is it that. What they're saying is, look, there's very serious potential for overreach if you start using this Alien Enemies act or if you start, you know, pursuing groups that it's not just this group. Suddenly you can go out and deport toddlers or puppies.
- [17:20]
Art Arthur
Yeah. And, you know, that goes to one of their key talking points or one of their, you know, core beliefs, and that is that Donald Trump has authoritarian instincts, that he is, you know, a totalitarian, and that if we don't fight for the rights of the, you know, least deserving individuals in this country, that eventually the rights of ordinary citizens could be, you know, impinged or impugned. But, you know, plainly, these are individuals who are foreign nationals. They have very, you know, limited rights in the United States, especially once they're outside the United States. And I think that that's overblown. But, you know, this whole concept that, you know, Trump has these authoritarian instincts, that he's different from any president in history. I served under six different presidents, and, you know, I can assure you that when it came to immigration, Joe Biden was the outlier, not Donald Trump. So, yeah, I mean, and, you know, Trump also inherited a very significant situation because of the Biden administration's immigration policies, where he does have to deal with a lot of immigrant criminals in this country. The, you know, immigration court system is slow. The Alien Enemies act is a lot quicker if courts allow him to use it.
- [18:37]
Mike Baker
You worked for six different presidents?
- [18:39]
Art Arthur
I think so. I'd have to count them all.
- [18:41]
Mike Baker
That's remarkable. All right. That's right. Okay, now let's. It's just between you and me. But. But who was your favorite?
- [18:46]
Art Arthur
They were all great. Tough to choose. Just like my children.
- [18:51]
Mike Baker
Oh, come on. Everybody knows we all have a favorite child. Come on. But. No, actually, we don't. I'm kidding. If my kids are listening, and they typically do. I'm just joking. And. And so is Art. Okay, let's switch. We're talking about. You've just mentioned the rights of individuals who are in the states under various classifications, whether they're citizens, green card Holders, permanent residents, whatever it may be. That takes us to the saga of one Mr. Khalil. Talk to me if you could, or set it kind of set the stage for what happened with this individual who suddenly found himself in the news as a result of leading pro Palestinian or pro Hamas or anti Israel, however you want to refer to them, protests on college campuses here in the US So.
- [19:43]
Art Arthur
Mahmoud Khalil is a graduate student or, you know, a person who's about to graduate from Columbia University. He is. He was born in Syria of Palestinian parents, and he is married to a United States citizen who's pregnant with his child. And he has a green card. I believe he got his green card back in November, and he was arrested a few weeks back by ICE officers because the State Department has determined that his presence in the United States has potentially serious adverse foreign policy implications for the United States. There's a specific ground of removability, section 237A.4C, that permits the Secretary of State to make such a determination, and that renders an individual against whom such a determination has been made removable from the United States, even if you have a green card. And the basic idea is that, you know, this person simply being in the United States has some very serious foreign policy impact. And for that reason, the person has to go. Probably the best scenario that you and I could think about for this would be the Shah of Iran. You remember, after he was deposed, the Shah came to the United States for medical treatment, and his presence in this country, you know, eventually led to the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran. So, and that's really why Congress wrote that law, and now it's being used against Mr. Khalil. He's sitting in custody in Louisiana right now.
- [21:10]
Mike Baker
What do you think?
- [21:11]
Art Arthur
The really critical part of this, Mike, and this is the part that nobody's talking about, is what that foreign policy interest is. You know, Secretary of State Rubio has talked a lot about this guy and about how, you know, aliens in the United States don't have a right to live here permanently. And, you know, he's more or less correct about that. But, you know, a lot of people are missing that crucial point. There are a couple of things. One could be our follow our foreign policy relationship with Israel. Mr. Khalil has apparently, you know, been implicated in some way in protests that happened at Columbia University, called by a group called Columbia University Apartheid Divest, and cuad, as they're called, has been accused of, you know, some criminal activity that they've, you know, threatened Jewish students and other students going to class in Columbia. So it's possible that the foreign policy implication could be the treatment that foreign students at Columbia University are receiving. If you're a Jewish student from Canada or Germany or the UK and you feel threatened and going to class, you know, that's going to have foreign policy implications, because the way we treat foreign nationals in the United States is more or less the way we expect other people to treat us. I think DeMarco Rubio's ultimate letter, which hasn't been disclosed, it's going to be very enlightening on these issues.
- [22:35]
Mike Baker
I think that the. The issue from the left right is. I mean, there's a number of issues there, but I'm always fascinated to see how they frame their narrative right from the outset. And obviously, the first thing they said was, you know, freedom of speech. Look, Khalil's here. He's got a green card. Interestingly, it seemed as if when they first went to pick him up, they were under the impression he was just here on a student visa. Have you seen anything related to that?
- [23:03]
Art Arthur
So I've actually taken a look of what, what purports to be the notice to appear in his case, and it both says that he was a student and that he is a law permanent resident. So he probably adjusted his status. That's perfectly legal. You can go from being a tourist to being a green card holder, a student. That. That part is legal. But in to your point, and I have a feeling I know where you're going with this, the law is clear that the Secretary of State cannot make this determination based upon statements, beliefs, or associations or activities and associations in the United States that are lawful in the United States, which means that Marco Rubio seems to think that Mr. Khalil has done something that would be unlawful in this country. Now, and this is an important caveat and that I have to add, even if Khalil's activities were lawful, and even if Rubio has made the determination that they were, if his presence implicates a compelling or compromise as a compelling foreign policy issue, then he could still go ahead. Rubio could still go ahead and move to deport Khalil. So that letter is going to be absolutely crucial.
- [24:20]
Mike Baker
Do you know when that is coming out? I mean, is there a time frame for that, or is a requirement to issue that letter within a certain period of time?
- [24:28]
Art Arthur
So that letter has to be presented to the immigration judge at the time that Mr. Khalil is presented in immigration court so that the judge can make a determination that it was properly issued. And really, the only, you know, part of this that the judge can, you know, rule on is whether or not it was properly issued. The judge can't second guess the foreign policy, you know, interest that was asserted. But I think both sides in this case, Mike, and I think this is really the interesting part. Both sides are looking forward to that hearing and, you know, wait to see whether Khalil allows that hearing to be public or whether, you know, he asked for the courtroom to be closed.
- [25:09]
Mike Baker
Is that up to Khalil and his attorneys to make that decision?
- [25:12]
Art Arthur
He can make that request, and the judge, you know, generally will grant those requests. But I think that Mr. Khalil probably wants to use that hearing as a platform by which to, you know, say, I'm just a good guy. I'm simply here in the United States. I'm going to be the father of a child, you know, and, you know, to, you know, sort of, you know, present his political views. I think that the administration is interested in, you know, using that hearing as a platform at which you can discuss everything that happened in Columbia University. If you do all the reading on the. On this case and what happened in Columbia. I'm sure you have. I know I have. You know, it's all over the map. On the one hand, you know, they're simply peacefully protesting. On the other hand, there are students that are afraid to go to class and custodians that were, you know, threatened with assault and locked in rooms. So it'll be interesting to hear what comes out.
- [26:07]
Mike Baker
Much like the. The TDA issue and the Alien Enemies act and deportation now to El Salvador. Do you imagine that this Khalil issue is heading to the Supreme Court?
- [26:18]
Art Arthur
I think that the. The constitutionality of this ground of removal is headed to the Supreme Court. It was only used once in the past in a case that was very tangentially invol called Matter of Ruiz Misieux that involved the former Deputy Attorney General of Mexico. Now, he died before that case could make its way through the federal courts. I think the constitutionality of this one is definitely headed to the Supreme Court. But, Mike, when it comes to foreign policy issues, the Supreme Court is very deferential to the executive branch.
- [26:49]
Mike Baker
Very interesting. And when. A final question. When is the hearing?
- [26:53]
Art Arthur
We don't know. It's to be said. It hasn't been publicly stated when that's going to be scheduled. But given the fact that he's in detention, ICE has an interest in having that case as quickly as possible because they have to pay about 150 bucks per day for every day that he sits in detention. And he doesn't want to sit in detention any longer than he has to. He, Mr. Khalil probably also wants this thing to happen as quickly as possible.
- [27:17]
Mike Baker
Okay, well, and that was not actually my last question. My last question is when we find out when the hearing is, we get those, you know, it starts to develop when we get the results. I hope you'll come back.
- [27:28]
Art Arthur
I look forward to it. I mean, it's going to be absolutely fascinating. And I hope that, you know, not just you and I, but many in the press, you know, seriously and objectively look at these issues because I think objectivity has been one of those things that's been lost in both of these cases.
- [27:44]
Mike Baker
Yeah, I think objectivity and maybe civil discourse, those two things seem to have been lost over a number of years. All right, listen, thank you very much for joining us, Arthur, here on the PDB Situation Report. Look forward to the next time we get a chance to talk. Coming up next, the US Continues its campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. Remember them? Bill Rogio of the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Well, he joins us for more on that. Stay with us.
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- [29:36]
Mike Baker
Welcome back to THE SITUATION report. The US Campaign against Kahouthi rebels continued this week with President Trump vowing that American military strikes would, quote, completely annihilate the Iran backed militants. Now here's a spoiler alert and a little bit of a pro tip. When it comes to terrorist organizations, it's extremely hard to completely annihilate any of them. In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump warned Tehran to cut off military aid, quote, immediately and leave the Houthis to, quote, face the fight alone. His comments came as US Forces carried out fresh strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, part of what officials describe as a sustained effort to stop the group's attacks on Red Sea shipping. Joining me now is Bill Ro, is the editor of the foundation for the Defense of Democracies, Long War Journal. Bill, welcome back to the PDB Situation report. Thanks very much for joining us again.
- [30:34]
Bill Rogio
Always a pleasure. Thanks for having me.
- [30:37]
Mike Baker
Absolutely, man. Listen, we got a lot to talk about, but let's start with the Houthis, right? What's, what's up with the Houthis? And you don't listen, you don't hear that sort of, you know, insightful question all the time. But let's start from sort of the top level in case people aren't familiar with with this group. Let's talk about them a little bit, if you could, and then let's dig down into why they've become such a focus and a target of the Trump administration.
- [31:07]
Bill Rogio
The Houthis are a militia terrorist organization that's taken control of, I would say about half of Yemen. I did this in the mid 2010s, about 2015. It's backed by Iran. So it's one of Iran's, what they call the axis of resistance. These are the Shia militias that span the Middle east, in Iraq and Syria, in Gaza and the West Bank, Lebanon, of course, being Hezbollah being what used to be the premier militia probably still is. The Houthis have become a very influential militia, particularly since the Israelis responded to Hamas's devastating attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, one month after the attack. The Houthis said that it would attack Israel as well as Western and international shipping moving through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. So they've been firing missiles and drones and other military hardware that it's accumulated first from taking over the Yemeni government and also being supplied by the Iranians. So international shipping that, you know A significant portion. I think it's like 15 of the international shipping moves through the Red Sea, through the Gulf, through the Suez Canal, and it's driven up shipping costs, shipping times. But also they have directly attacked US worship. So the Biden administration delisted the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization immediately after taking office.
- [32:45]
Mike Baker
Bill, if I can interrupt you. Why, why was that? Why did, was there some significant change in the Houthis objectives or focus that caused the Biden administration to drop them as a foreign terrorist organization?
- [32:57]
Bill Rogio
The Biden administration believed that the designation prevented aid from flowing into Yemen. And so the Trump administration designated as a foreign terrorist organization on its way out the door in January 2021. And the Biden administration came in. It's one of the first things it did was delist, which made absolutely made no sense. Part of it, I think, was a finger in the eye to the Trump administration as well. It didn't like that the Trump administration listed them, you know, on its way out the door. One of the Trump administration's first things it did when it took office two months ago was actually, did it last month was to relist the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, as it should have been. Its attacks on shipping and its attacks. It's also attacked Israel directly after the, after the Hamas attack on Israel. It should never have been removed.
- [33:57]
Mike Baker
Now, the, the Houthis do not control all of Yemen. They've been in a civil war, right, with, with, you know, the sort of the, the established government, even though that established government for the most part, you know, controls very little of the country. But when you talk about the Houthis and their capabilities, are they more like an established military at this point? Do we have a headcount for how many fighters they have? To what degree are they, are they an actual, you know, national military as opposed to a paramilitary group, or what we would consistently think of as a terrorist organization?
- [34:32]
Bill Rogio
Yeah, they, they bounded the term or the, the status of terrorist organization. It controls the apparatuses of the state. It has a military. Its military has to have over a hundred thousand fighters. We could call them soldiers in the organization. I much view it like, you know, like the Taliban. We don't want to recognize the Taliban as being the government of Afghanistan, but they're the de facto government of Afghanistan. It possesses a military, military hardware. It's running ministries. It's provided limited but services. It's providing the services of state. It's, it's a, it's really. The Houthis are a terrorist state just as the Taliban is a terrorist state.
- [35:14]
Mike Baker
And it's a terrorist state sponsored, as you pointed out, and funded, trained, resourced by the Iranian regime. While, correct me if I'm wrong, the. The Saudis, primarily the Saudis, have been on the other side of that equation supporting what still is or was the established or recognized government of Yemen in this proxy war between the two.
- [35:40]
Bill Rogio
That's absolutely correct. And I do believe that that was another reason the Biden administration delisted the Houthis, because of animosity with the Saudis over the Saudis. How it was fighting the. The Houthis, that was a major mistake by the US it caused serious rifts. And look, I have my issues with the Saudi government, but if, you know, you have few allies in the region, and they were fighting an Iranian client and, you know, an Iranian proxy, and that was a fight that we should have been supported, supporting. But the Biden administration, because of the, The. The. The Saudi government's murder of a. Of a reporter, a Saudi reporter, Khashoggi, there was, you know, that was a big issue for the Democratic Party.
- [36:28]
Mike Baker
Yeah, It's. It's sort of that hope and change concept. Right. You actually have to deal with the people that, you know, live in the world that you have rather than the world that you'd love to have. And I think sometimes, you know, moving from one administration to another, you know, you can see the differences. Right. You have to be a little bit more pragmatic about the. The way that the world operates, I think. And sometimes your. Your allies or your friends may not, you know, have all your best interests at heart, but you got to deal with, you know, the real world as it exists, rather than you'd love for it to exist. You know, I hate Bill, I'm climbing down off my soapbox now. Talk to me about what the US Government is doing, what the military is doing at this stage to try to get this under control.
- [37:13]
Bill Rogio
Yeah. So over the last week, the US Military has launched airstrikes against the Houthis they're targeting. So the Biden administration did this, but in a limited capacity, was primarily fighting a defensive war against the Houthis. Used up a lot of air defense, but what they were doing was targeting things and not. And which you have to target things. Military hardware. They were targeting missiles on launch pads, weapons storage sites, but it was infrequent, and it wasn't done with an intensity that could actually set back. They refused to go after military leaders and political leaders of the Houthis. The Trump administration, you Know, I'm seeing they're not as concerned with going after the people aspect. And if you want to go after the Houthis, look, hardware can be replaced, and Iranians are very willing to replace that hardware. They've done this over time and they've been effective at replacing that hardware. But so now the Trump administration does seem to be going after military commanders. I haven't seen indication that they've targeted military or political leadership at this time. That, to me, will be the determining factor. The US Military, the US Government has to decide that it, you know, it needs to launch a full scale campaign against the Houthis in order to get them to stop. And I think these strikes aren't just aimed at the Houthis themselves. The reality is the Houthis haven't launched attacks against U.S. warships for several months. But I also think this is a message directly to the Iranians that we aren't the, this administration isn't going to tolerate the actions by their proxies, particularly as egregious, you know, as the Houthis bed. And to get to your point about policy between administrations, this is something that really needs to change this. If this haphazard lack of a coherent policy that spans administrations, that's something over the last 20 years that is really a lack of continuity of foreign policy. And how we deal with threats like the Iranians, like the Houthis, it really weakens us. It emboldens the Iranians to get the Houthis. They do this because they perceive us as weak.
- [39:33]
Mike Baker
Yeah. And it does seem as if we're, we're operating at least currently. The, the Trump administration is kind of doing a two track effort here. As you pointed out, the military strikes on the Houthi sites to degrade their abilities, but also at the same time putting this pressure on the Iranian regime, saying, look, you have to, you have to stop your support. Otherwise, now, you know, we can talk about where that may go. To what degree can we be successful, can the US Be successful in influencing Iran to step away from one of their, what have been one of their key proxies? But before we do that, Bill, we have to take a quick break. If you could stay with us. We will be right back with more Bill Rogio and the Situation Report.
- [40:18]
Art Arthur
Hey, I'm Mike Slater. I have a podcast called Politics by Faith. We have a very simple mission. We take the news the day and.
- [40:23]
Mike Baker
We filter it through a biblical worldview.
- [40:25]
Art Arthur
So here's the big story of the day. What does the Bible say about it?
- [40:29]
Mike Baker
And how can we apply it?
- [40:30]
Art Arthur
It's amazing. There's nothing new under the sun.
- [40:32]
Mike Baker
The Bible has something to say about.
- [40:33]
Art Arthur
Everything that's going on today.
- [40:35]
Mike Baker
So basically, we thump the Bible over on Politics by Faith. I think we got to keep MAGA going.
- [40:39]
Art Arthur
And I think the way to take it beyond just a political victory into.
- [40:42]
Mike Baker
A true rebuilding and awakening and revival in America is to make sure that.
- [40:45]
Art Arthur
This is all grounded in biblical principles. And that's what we do on the.
- [40:49]
Mike Baker
Podcast Politics by Faith.
- [40:50]
Art Arthur
And you can subscribe to Politics by.
- [40:52]
Mike Baker
Faith wherever you're listening to the show right now. Welcome back to the Situation Report. Joining me again is Bill Rogio. He's the editor of the foundation for the Defense of Democracy's Long War Journal. Bill, thanks very much for sticking around. We've been talking Houthis, all things Houthis when we look at, at the actions of that group, right? I mean, we've been dealing with this, with Hezbollah, with Hamas, trying to impact their actions, their objectives, while all the time kind of sitting above them as the puppet master of the Iranian regime. Are we dealing with the same? Is it the same as Hamas and Hezbollah with the Houthis, or do the Houthis have more autonomy in the way that they conduct themselves?
- [41:36]
Bill Rogio
All of Iran's proxies have a degree of autonomy. The Iranians are never going to ask Houthis to do something that would threaten the Houthis interests, that would threaten the viability of the Houthis. The same goes with Hezbollah, that goes with Hamas or any of these terrorist organizations. The Iraqi militias, the Syrian militias, however, they all share common goals, common interests, a common ideology. So when the Iranians go to the Houthis and say to them, or the Houthis go to the Iranians and say, we want to hit international shipping, they work that out between them. If the Iranians think that the Houthis actions are going to prepare the group, they'll try and dial them back. There's some reporting out there now that the Iranians are trying to advise the Houthis to, you know, to dial it back.
- [42:30]
Mike Baker
Do you believe they're doing that, or is that just window dressing for plausible deniability?
- [42:36]
Bill Rogio
Within that, there is a deniability. The, the Iranians are insisting they don't tell the Houthis what to do. The Houthis are their own entity. The Iranians will claim that they, they're not directing their activities. That's, of course, all is a lie. I do believe that there is some truth to that. The Houthis may have overreached here. Not because of, only because the change of administrations. And this is where the change of administrations works against the Iranians. Right. If, if there was a Biden or a Harris administration and you had continuing policies, I'd be, I'd be very much willing to bet that the Houthis would be resuming strikes. So they do act rationally to, to ensure their survival.
- [43:23]
Mike Baker
Okay. And, but they, they. I mean, it's written on their flag. Right? I mean, their, their objective is aligned with the Iranian regime's objective, which is essentially the destruction of Israel.
- [43:34]
Bill Rogio
Their motto is that Israel, death to America, the long live Islam. I'm paraphrasing it, but that's, that's really it.
- [43:42]
Art Arthur
Yeah.
- [43:43]
Bill Rogio
At the end of the day, they want those things, but they, they need to be. They need to survive. And this is stunning, if you would ask me about nine months ago, you know, the Iranians had, and their proxies had all the advantages, but they definitely overreach. They didn't calculate that the Israelis were willing to launch strikes deep into Israel, which is really, I think, shocked the Israelis at the, at the. I'm sorry, the Iranians, at the Israeli abilities to, to launch targeted strikes against their, against their infrastructure.
- [44:13]
Mike Baker
Okay, so where does this. I know this is a tough question to answer, but, you know, top line, where do you think this goes with this, this current conflict related to the Houthis?
- [44:24]
Bill Rogio
I believe that they are going to back down. They're not going to admit it, but I don't think we're going to see it. Continuing attacks against US Shipping, particularly if the Trump administration directly targets Houthi leadership. Their leaders, they want to survive. They want to follow through on their death to America and death to Israel pledge. So. But a Trump administration, you know, I've always felt that the Houthis are like one of the strengths of the axis of resistance, but also one of the weakness weaknesses, too. They're exposed. They don't fully control the state. It's not a very populous country. And they're, you know, along the ocean where the US Navy, if properly pointed at military and political leadership, it could seriously harm the Houthi. You know, it. One of the things that the Houthis are weakened, they don't just have external enemies, the US And Israel, as you noted before, they don't control the whole country. You have other entities within Yemen that want to see the downfall of the Houthis. And if they're perceived as weak, their enemies will go at them.
- [45:36]
Mike Baker
Okay, so. And really with the, the alternative government, or, you know, however we want to refer to it, is really based down south in the country. Right. The Houthis control northern portion for the most part, and Sanaa, that area. And then the, the alternative, or what had been the established government under Saleh, that, that's down south in Aden.
- [45:57]
Bill Rogio
And then there's also a separatist movement in southern Yemeni separatist movement as well, that isn't very friendly. It's like Game of Thrones in, in Yemen, you have all of these actors and the only green arc in the case of Yemen, at least one of them we could consider to be, you know, someone we could work with. And that is the, the Trump government that is operating.
- [46:19]
Mike Baker
But it sounds as if what we're really looking to do is just simply degrade the Houthis sufficiently to stop the threats to the US and international shipping in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Suez Canal area, rather than push for some sort of regime change. Because that sounds like a complete hornet's nest. I mean, you're almost talking about a, a Libya type situation where it's just, you know, there's, there's nothing to fill in the void.
- [46:45]
Bill Rogio
That's it. It's Libya is an excellent analogy. I mean, sadly, the, you know, the run government in Aden isn't strong enough to retake Yemen. So I do believe our objectives, not just to degrade the Houthis, but to split that relationship with Iran, if that can be done. Or at least get the try to, you know, if it was me, I would be targeting the Iranian efforts to resupply the Houthis as well. And we in that link weaken their ability to rearm and re. Equip to, you know, this isn't the first time, by the way, that the Houthis have attacked international shipping. You go all the way back to 2015 in 2018, 19, they were doing this. So this is a, this is a terrorist government that has, you know, is, it isn't just because of Israel. It's, it's, it's doing it because of its hatred of the west and, and to further the Iranian regime's goals.
- [47:44]
Mike Baker
Yeah. And that's a whole conversation for another day, Bill, in terms of, you know, do we ever get to mid or long term stability and peace in the region as long as the Iranian regime and the IRGC are in place? But I want to shift gears. We'll talk about that some other time. Then people all get all squirmy and angst ridden because I think they're talking about regime change, but let's talk about Gaza. If we could, in the time that we have left, give us an update. Where are we with the Israel, Hamas situation?
- [48:15]
Bill Rogio
Yeah, really quick on the issue of regime change. I mean, unless you're watching what happened in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, I do not recommend we try that. It hasn't worked well over the last 20 years, but what we can do is weaken our enemies and that that should be our goal. And with the Iranians we should be working with. There is a legitimate Iranian resistance. We should work with them. That would solve issues like Gaza, like Yemen, like Iraq. But as far as Gaza goes, the Israelis are back on the offensive. That that ceasefire has appeared to have fallen apart, which everyone expected or anyone who I know who is understanding of this situation. For instance, John Chanzer, my, our executive director at fdd, he told me the day it was signed, I was expressing concern about the ceasefire. He said it's never going to make it to phase two and it hasn't. The Hamas has just been refusal to live up to its commitments to exchange prisoners. See, the Israelis have gone back to launching airstrikes against Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders and military targets. They've entered that corridor that divided Gaza and they're splitting it back in half again. The question is, is, is the Israeli, will the Israelis seek for an ultimate defeat of Hamas or is this a stopgap measure in order to get Hamas back to the negotiating table to get those prisoners, those prisoners, those hostages being held out by Hamas? The Israelis still don't even know who's dead and who's alive. How you can work. The Israelis are, their country is held hostage. It's not just hostages, Israeli hostages being held. It's the nation of Israel because it wants those hostages released. So the Israelis are in a tough bind. And if it was me, I. It's a difficult decision and a tough political decision to make for the Israeli leadership. But the number one goal should be the defeat of Hamas. You know, we're a year and a half into this war, the Israelis are, and Hamas is still at a negotiating table that should just not be happening. But it goes to show the. How resolute a group like Hamas is.
- [50:32]
Mike Baker
Makes a question though, Bill. How realistic is it to, to even talk about the complete defeat of Hamas? I mean, what does that look like?
- [50:39]
Bill Rogio
It would require the reoccupation of Gaza by the Israelis and continuing military operations. It's something the Israelis don't want to do. It's, you know, is it. It's Possible, but it's difficult. And that's the real problem with any of these wars. Could we have defeated the Taliban? Yes, but what did we need to do to commit to that was something that we were willing to do. Wars are ultimately battles of wills at some point. And Hamas has will, the Israelis have will. But the Israelis have enough will to stay in the hornet's nest of Gaza.
- [51:16]
Mike Baker
And also to, to deal with the international community, I suspect. I mean, it seems like over the, certainly Since October of 2023, it seems like the Israelis have basically said, look, we know we've lost, you know, goodwill from the international community. We've lost that narrative every time we go into Gaza to try to deal with Hamas. But it looks like they've kind of got to that point where they don't care about that aspect of it.
- [51:39]
Bill Rogio
Yeah, I think we saw that develop. That's what developed over the summer of last year. Right. The Israelis need more than that. You know, these, here's the issue, right. And we talked about this a little bit before. You know, you can deal with the symptoms of, of Iran's axis of resistance, but they're not actually getting to the core of the problem. And that's the Iranian government, that's the, the Iranian regime, the mul led regime that seeks the destruction of Israel. And until that's dismantled. And I, look, I'm not going to tell you that certainly the Israelis can't do that on their own. I don't advise the US But I believe there's ways that could be done that could be or means paths that be explored to weaken the Iranian regime further, like about crippling their energy production, destroying the Iranian navy doing. You know, there are things that the Iranians do not want to look weak at home that really, that is something that concerns them. And to be at. There's been very little effort to put that kind of pressure on the Iranians.
- [52:44]
Mike Baker
Well, I think, Billy, what you've done is you've outlined the topic for our next conversation and hopefully that will be soon because I know we'll be picking up the phone and calling you and asking you to come back, but we are at this stage out of time. Bill Rogio, foundation for the Defense of Democracies Listen, it's always a pleasure, it's always fascinating and I look forward to the next conversation. MAN thank you, sir.
- [53:09]
Bill Rogio
Always appreciate the intelligent conversation.
- [53:12]
Mike Baker
That's all the time we have for this week's PDB Situation report. Look, if you have any questions or comments or even the humorous anecdote or a limerick. I don't know if people still do limericks. Please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com I've talked about this before and I mean it. Every week, right, the mailman drops off another bag full of your comments and your questions and then we sift through them, we compile them. We got another episode of our Ask Me Anything coming up soon, but it's a delightful time. Even the interns get involved in selecting those questions and we'll put them into another Ask Me Anything episode which as I mentioned is coming up very soon. So finally to listen to the podcast of this show ad free. Well that is simple too. You just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I told you it was simple. Listen always thank you for tuning in. Very much appreciated. I'm Mike Baker. Until next time. You know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. It.