PDB Situation Report | March 7th, 2026: Fighter Pilot Breaks Down The First Week Of The Iran Air War

Summary

The President’s Daily Brief: Situation Report – March 7th, 2026
Episode Title: Fighter Pilot Breaks Down The First Week Of The Iran Air War
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Guests:

• Ryan “Max Afterburner” Bodenheimer (Former USAF Fighter Pilot)
• Bill Roggio (Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Long War Journal Editor)
  Release Date: March 7, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode provides an in-depth, real-time analysis of the first week of the US–Israeli coalition’s air campaign against Iran. Host Mike Baker is joined by former fighter pilot Ryan Bodenheimer ("Max Afterburner") for a technical breakdown of the campaign, including tactics, target sets, and regional complications. Later, Bill Roggio offers insights into the prospects and perils of opening a ground front, specifically through supporting Kurdish forces along Iran's western border. The episode’s tone is knowledgeable, pragmatic, and forthrightly skeptical about quick or easy resolutions in Iran.

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Key Sections & Discussion Points

1. Air Campaign Against Iran: Strategy and Execution

(01:12–13:00)

• Systematic, Phased Approach to Air Dominance (03:18–05:02)

  • Ryan outlines the standard operational blueprint: initial reliance on “standoff weaponry” (AGM-158 stealth cruise missiles) to knock out Iran’s Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS), followed by cyber and space systems targeting regime communications.
  • "First phase is basically create what's called silent corridors, where you can't get targeted from the different surface to air missile systems." (Ryan, 04:38)

• Speed of Air Superiority (05:02–06:17)

  • Mike asks if Ryan was surprised how quickly the US declared air dominance; Ryan thought it would be harder, given Chinese tech, but ultimately attributes success to highly trained SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) teams.

• Quality of Iranian Defenses/Foreign Systems (06:18–08:54)

  • Discussion on performance of Russian and especially Chinese air defense systems, which have failed to live up to PR expectations.
  • "China, they wanted the PR...I think they probably threw the kitchen sink at...the capability that they tried to give Iran." (Ryan, 07:23)

• American Tactics and Confidence (08:54–10:27)

  • Mike jokes about fighter pilots never being humble.
  • “There's actually tactics...where certain aircraft will be the bait to try to draw out what's there. That takes some serious cojones.” (Ryan, 07:50)

• Operational Planning and Adaptation to Intelligence (10:27–12:54)

  • Existing war plans are “on the shelf,” constantly updated to reflect the latest adversary capabilities and intelligence.
  • Daily intel threat briefs inform ongoing training and immediate updates.

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2. Coalition Coordination: US-Israeli Air Teamwork

(15:21–18:47)

• Interoperability & Deconfliction (15:45–17:41)

  • Coalition works seamlessly because of years of joint training and shared platforms (F-35s, compatible tankers), as well as liaisons at operational centers.
  • "You're kind of speaking the same language...right now you're in operation centers where there's an Israeli liaison and a US liaison...so you can deconflict." (Ryan, 17:12)

• Avoiding Friendly Fire amid Complexity (17:41–20:18)

  • Importance of synchronized communications (crypto), changed often—"literally mean the difference between life and death.”
  • On the Kuwait incident: Legacy (older) F-18s have shortcomings in situational awareness and are thus more prone to pilot error.

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3. Regional Dynamics: Gulf States and Unexpected Allies

(20:53–24:30)

• Arab Gulf Partners Step Up

  • Notably, Qatari F-15s, who train with Americans, intercepted Iranian SU-24s attempting to attack Al Udeid (US base in Qatar).
  • “It’s pretty awesome to see the Gulf State stepping up and saying...now it's kind of, it's clear to the world that they're a terrorist regime." (Ryan, 21:59)

• Iran’s Failed Strategy with Neighbors

  • Iran’s attacks on multiple Gulf states intended to divide them, but instead united them (albeit often privately) against Tehran.

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4. Current and Future Target Sets

(23:31–26:45)

• Focus remains on ballistic missile sites, launchers, and production facilities, with the US steadily degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.
• Describes “cat and mouse” with mobile launchers—“they’ll go in and just hide in like, you know, like a Dr. Evil-style cave.” (Ryan, 24:18)
• Notable pop culture moment: Multiple Dr. Evil/Austin Powers references for generational context.

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5. Key Platforms: The Role of Electronic Warfare

(25:34–26:54)

• The EA-18G Growler’s critical role in “electronic attack”—disrupting Iranian radars, creating “silent corridors,” and facilitating safer deep strikes.
• “The EA-18G is a super capable electronic attack aircraft, but it’s kind of...a team member that teams up with other aircraft.” (Ryan, 26:46)

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6. Transition to Ground Operations and Insurgency Risks

(27:05–32:00)

• Discussion pivots to the IRGC’s brutality repressing civilian unrest, and the potential for Kurdish groups to open new fronts in Iran’s west.
• Mike: “You’re asking a lot from unarmed Iranian people...” (29:26)
• Ryan inquires: “How do you root that out in a country that's, you know, relatively advanced, infrastructure wise?” (27:59)
• Mike’s answer: Internal fracture in the regime is necessary; external proxies are insufficient.

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7. Entrenching Ground Realities: The Kurdish Dilemma

Key Segment with Bill Roggio: (36:09–62:19)

• Dangers of 'Mission Creep' and Lessons from Iraq/Afghanistan (36:22–39:19)

  • Bill: “It’s not an issue of capability. I never questioned our military’s capabilities. It’s a question of political will.” (38:40)
  • Warns against US boots on the ground; reminds listeners of the failures of prior regime-change attempts.

• Kurdish Factions Not the Solution (41:41–45:17)

  • The US has a history of over-simplifying “the Kurds” (multiple factions, some US-designated terror groups).
  • PJAK, the main Iranian Kurdish group, is of limited scope—“they can be a thorn in the side of the Iranian regime...but not the answer.”

• Regime Change Must Come Internally (45:17–57:53)

  • True change needs internal organization and arming of Iranian dissidents, not US intervention or proxy militias.
  • Repressive capabilities of IRGC and security apparatus make mass uprising difficult absent a splinter within regime security forces.

• Risks of Limited Air War

  • Mike and Bill discuss the likelihood the US/Israel will “defang” the regime—degrading military infrastructure but not removing political leadership.
  • Analogies drawn to Houthi campaign (Yemen) where a quick pivot to negotiation followed disappointment with airpower solutions.

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8. Predicting the Endgame

(60:16–64:37)

• Cynical but Realistic Forecasts

  • Bill predicts two likely scenarios for Iran in another month:
    1. “The Houthis scenario”: US ends active military ops after damaging Iran’s capabilities, but regime survives—albeit toothless for now.
    2. Less likely: A regime collapse, followed by insurgency or state fragmentation (“Balkanization”).
  • “You can argue why is every administration kicked a can down the road…because of this fear...what backfills a change...is not better, it’s worse.” (Mike, 62:39)
  • Mike echoes: “All we’ve been doing...is putting lipstick on a pig and trying to deal with this repressive, brutal regime…”

• The Role of Ideological Fervor

  • “Our greatest failure...is a failure to understand the ideological fervor of our enemies. They are true believers, they’re not pragmatic like we think of pragmatic.” (Bill, 60:16)

• Ultimate Takeaway

  • Both agree only an internal fracture among regime elites/security forces can offer hope for regime change. External intervention, even if militarily successful, is unlikely to produce lasting peace or reform.

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Notable Quotes & Timestamp Highlights

• On Coalition Effectiveness:

  • “I can't help but be impressed by the coordination.” (Mike Baker, 15:45)

• On Fighter Pilot Confidence:

  • “There's actually tactics, Mike, where certain aircraft will be the bait to try to draw out what's there. That takes some serious cojones.” (Ryan, 07:50)

• On Iranian Regime’s Survival Instinct:

  • "You're asking a lot from unarmed Iranian people who've just seen thousands and thousands of their friends and family members slaughtered on the streets in recent protests." (Mike, 29:26)

• On Kurdish Role:

  • “The Kurds aren’t going to do this alone in organized resistance...they can be a thorn...but not the solution.” (Bill Roggio, 44:12)

• On Ideological Adversaries:

  • “Our greatest failure...is a failure to understand the ideological fervor of our enemies.” (Bill, 60:16)

• On Unsatisfying Outcomes:

  • “You can chop off heads, but those heads will grow back.” (Bill, 56:50)
  • “You never will get to long-term peace in the region...as long as the mullahs and IRGC are in charge. But that change has to come from within.” (Mike, 62:39)

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Timestamps for Crucial Segments

• Air Campaign Tactics & Early Dominance: 03:18–10:27
• US-Israeli Air Coordination & Avoiding Friendly Fire: 15:21–20:18
• Gulf Allies Step Up, Notable SU-24 Intercept: 20:53–24:30
• Future of Air Campaign, Mobile Missile Hunting: 23:31–26:45
• Ground Game: Kurdish Proposals, IRGC Suppression: 27:05–32:00
• In-Depth Kurdish Segment with Bill Roggio: 36:09–45:17
• Regime Change, Iranian Uprising Prospects: 45:17–57:53
• Likely Outcomes, The Houthis Analogy: 60:16–64:37

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a clear-eyed, sober breakdown of the first week of the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran, punctuated by tactical analysis and a realistic assessment of what may—and may not—follow. The consensus: regime change cannot be imposed externally; air power can buy time and degrade threats, but Iran’s internal fractures (or lack thereof) remain decisive. Listeners are left with a pragmatic, even skeptical, understanding of the campaign’s limitations, and the intractable complexity of regime change in Iran.

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Welcome to THE BDB Situation report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes, I am back on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, we're now one week into the conflict with Iran. Maybe you heard about it. And the air campaign shows no signs of slowing as coalition aircraft continue hitting military targets across the country. Former US Air Force fighter pilot Ryan Bodenheimer, you may know him as Max Afterburner, joins us to give us this insight into the ongoing air campaign. Later in the show, the fight against Tehran may be moving onto the ground with reports that Kurdish forces could soon engage Iranian troops along the western border. We'll break it down with Bill Grocio from the foundation for Defensive Democracies. But first, today's SITUATION report. Spotlight the U.S. and Israeli air campaign over Iran continues to intensify with coalition aircraft striking missile launch sites, air defense systems and military infrastructure across the country. Officials say the goal is to degrade Tehran's ability to retaliate while steadily dismantling the regime's command and control networks. Over the past week, waves of aircraft and long range strikes have targeted radar installations, air bases and ballistic missile facilities, all part of a broader effort to establish air superiority and keep Iran's remaining military assets under constant pressure. The big question now is how sustainable that campaign is and what targets may come next. Joining me now is Ryan Bodenheimer, aka Max Afterburner. Now, he's a former US Air Force fighter pilot who flew 70 combat missions in the Middle East. You can check him out on his YouTube channel at Max Afterburner USA. Ryan, welcome back, man, to the PDB Situation Report.

[C]

Mike, thanks for being here, man. Thanks for having me. We got a lot to talk about today.

[B]

Do we? Do we now?

[C]

I think so. I think there's a little something going on.

[B]

Yeah. Okay, well, let's get into it. Give me, if you could, your. Your assessment. I know this is a big, broad question, but give me your assessment so far of the air campaign.

[C]

Yeah, I think we've seen kind of the systematic approach, which is. Which is normal. So there's operational plans that are built that have all these different phases in them now. They're classified. I had the ability to work on those with the F15E. And basically the air campaign just gives you a phased approach to achieve air dominance.

[B]

And.

[C]

And that's something that we kind of. We saw happen play out. So early on. You do what's called standoff weaponry. So you use AGM158. These are like stealthy cruise missiles. I mean, you can see videos online of these stealthy cruise missiles going in at low altitude, initially hitting a lot of the iads, the integrated air defenses. So everything I can tell is it followed just a really solid approach to. All right, take down the different things that can shoot us, and that you need to do that off the bat with stealth and standoff. So it looks like that was executed really well. It looked like air dominance was achieved within a few hours. And that's combined with different cyber systems, space systems, to also help take down the ability of the Iranian regime's IADs to communicate with each other. So that really followed what I think was a very solid recipe for success in the southern part of Iran to allow then. Now we've got heavy bombers going in with impunity at this point. So there's different phases, but that first phase is basically create what's called silent corridors, where you can't get targeted from the different surface to air missile systems. And then you just ramp that up, make sure those things stay quiet, and you have the ability to strike them as they turn on. And now you just have the bombers go in and start just taking out targets.

[B]

Were you surprised at how quickly the military declared they had air superiority over Iran?

[C]

You know, I thought it would be a little harder than Venezuela, but I think it's just. It's a testament to the focus of. There's. There's specific squadrons in the U.S. air Force that focus on this exact thing. That's what they do every single Day. So there's the training they get to go in and do. This is, is just, it's insane. It's like, you know, you've got special teams on a football team, you've got defense, you've got offense. Well, U.S. air Force has what's called seed suppression of enemy air defenses. And that's a mission, specifically those specific fighter jets that, that's all they do. So now that I, like, look at how long it took, you know, maybe an hour or so, it, it doesn't really surprise me, but I did think some of the Chinese systems that were being brought in, you know, the rumors that they, this isn't confirmed, but rumors that there was surface to air radars being in being brought in. I mean, I'm sure China would love to test some of that stuff against F35s, right? So I thought, yeah, this is probably going to be harder because some of these systems might be more advanced in Venezuela, but I think the men and women in those cockpits had prepared for that.

[B]

Yeah, it's interesting. I'm glad you brought up the Chinese aspect to this because we did see that, right. We saw Chinese air defense systems that they had exported to Venezuela. We also saw in Pakistan to some degree not perform necessarily the way that the Chinese marketing brochures were touting them.

[C]

Right.

[B]

I mean, because they've been out there for some time now, for years. Right. Advertising themselves as a, as an alternative to Western arms suppliers. And so the reporting is that, you know, the Iranian air defense network was sort of a patchwork quilt of Chinese systems, Russian systems, homemade systems, you know, reverse engineered in Iran. So is it, is it your impression that those, those systems that are being produced by the Russians and Chinese in particular are sub quality? Or is it that we're, we're just. This is going to sound wrong, but is it that were just so capable?

[C]

Yeah, I think you're spot on. You know, China, they wanted the pr, they wanted a sales pitch here. If they could do anything coming close to taking down not even just, you know, an F35, but any type of Western fighter, that would be huge PR for them to sell a lot more of their weaponry. Right. So I think they probably threw the kitchen sink at, you know, the capability that they tried to give Iran, not to mention the, they liked the fact that they were, you know, getting most of Iran's oil. So thinking of that, okay, they brought in their top systems. Yeah, I think, you know, fighter pilots have never been accused of being humble. And I think this is another case where they don't need to be because you're just, you're so focused on that and you act. There's actually tactics, Mike, where certain aircraft will be the bait to try to draw out what's there. I mean, that takes some serious cojones, you know, and that's the mindset you have with these aviators, that they're like, you know, I'm going to go out there and be the bait because we're so good that I can be the bait and still take out your surface to air missiles. So that confidence, I think, comes from a lot of, you know, behind the scenes, you know, back room vaults where you see American ingenuity playing out. These engineers that are building a lot of these systems are, I mean, they're big brain people that have a capability that lot of fighter pilots don't have. But then you combine, you know, that kind of disregard for your own life, like, hey, I'll go up, I'll be the bait with some of the advanced engineering.

[B]

But I think it is, yeah, it is a good point. I, I often say that I'm amazed at, at, at what smart people can do. Right. I mean, if it was up to, if people like me, right, we'd still be sitting around trying to figure out how to make fire. But so I always. Astounding. And these are the sort of the moments right, during this conflict when you, you understand just how, how advanced we've become in terms of creating these systems. And, and also to your point about fighter pilots, one of my Brothers was a F4 pilot in Vietnam. And yeah, we've never, never ever described him as humble. That's just never.

[C]

Yeah, that's an insult.

[B]

I mean.

[C]

No, I'm just kidding.

[B]

No. So is it, is it the case that, and I know technology, you know, changes to some degree things that happen, but is it the case that the way that you were describing the process, the beginning of our conversation and how they approach this sort of campaign, it made me think almost like, well, there's not much new under the sun when it comes to how you structure a campaign like that. I mean, is that the case, Is what we saw in the initial week or so in Iran, can you say, well, that's just how you do it and that's how we've done it for generations in terms of building an aerosol and again, realizing that technology can factor into this and make some adjustments.

[C]

Yeah, I think the cool thing about our military that people might not know is we've got these plans on the shelf ready to Go. And so our, our fighter aviators, our bomber pilots, our aerial refueling pilots, ISR intelligence, surveillance or reconnaissance drone operators, your part is all in that book. And that book's being continuously updated and it's classified what's actually in it, but it really puts everybody on the same sheet of music. And as technology advances, you just change the plan, update the plan you get intel from. Okay, now Iran maybe has this system, so we need to train this way or counter it this way. And a lot of our fighter squadron, you know, training curriculum is based on the intel we're getting of what's this latest system and how do we defeat it. And those are on the shelf for North Korea. You know, those are on the shelf for the Taiwan Straits. They were on the shelf for Iran. So as you're getting close to, you know, maybe a conflict going down, you're going to pull, so every squadron is going to have a version of that that they can all share. You're going to pull that down and update it and iterate it because, okay, this game is, know this game might be more closer to happening than the North Korea one. So we're going to focus on this one.

[B]

Is it the, the, the, the case that when you, I mean again, I know conditions on the ground change constantly, but do you have the, the, the intelligence that tells you we're going to be going in and we're going to be facing this type of air defense system. I mean, how specific and realizing it can change from conflict to conflict. But to what degree is, is, is that a factor?

[C]

Yeah, I think it's a factor. But even before that, you know, we as fighter pilots, you get a, you have a threat briefing pretty much every day from your intel. Every fighter squadron has an intelligence officer and department integrated with it. And so you get a threat briefing pretty much every day that keeps you up to speed on what the threats are, you know, with every single country. And then so what I would do, I would get that threat briefing from intel in the morning and then when I took my formation out to go train, you know, we two ship or four ship of F15Es, I would integrate whatever that latest threat was into the actual training we were doing and we would have that be replicated and you know, pretend like we were going up against that exact threat. So it keeps you kind of, you know, fresh where you're updated and you're training to the latest threat. So then when it's time to go into Iran, you like, yeah, I've been training against this for a week.

[B]

Or two. All right. Hey, listen, and if you could stay right where you are, Ryan, we do have to take a quick break. I apologize for that. But we'll be back with more from Ryan Bodenheimer. You probably know him as Max Afterburner. Check out his YouTube channel for sure. But we'll be right back with more with Ryan here on the PDB situation Report. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, whether you're in a one or two income household, if you're a breadwinner, well, you're carrying a lot of responsibility. Of course, you know that mortgage payments, tuition bills, everyday bills that don't just disappear should something happen to you or your partner. But thinking about it, thinking about the what ifs in life, well, that can be overwhelming. Well, I'm here to tell you that taking steps to protect your family financially is now a lot easier than it used to be. It's why I recommend Ethos Life Insurance. That's Ethos. Ethos is fast, it's Easy and it's 100% online. Get a quote in seconds. You can apply in minutes and get same day coverage up to $3 million. Some policies are as low as $30 a month. Business Insider named Ethos the number one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. And they've got 4.8 out of 5 stars on Trustpile. Protect your family with life insurance through Ethos. Get your free quote in [e-mail] PDB that's ethos.com PDB again. Ethos.com PDB application times and rates may vary.

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[B]

to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is former U.S. air Force fighter pilot Ryan Bodenheimer. You probably know him as Max Afterburner, and you can check out his YouTube channel. And I think you definitely should be checking out his YouTube channel if you haven't already. Just search up at Max Afterburner usa. It's that simple. Ryan, thank you very much for sticking around. Appreciate it.

[C]

Hey, thanks, Mike. Thanks for the plug. Really appreciate that.

[B]

Of course. Hey, you know what? I am a marketing machine. That's what I am. So listen, there's. There's a lot of ways to take this conversation that, that we've been having about the, the air campaign. One of the questions I did have is I think people have been, I don't want to use the term impressed. I mean that, you know, there's. Everyone's got different views on this conflict, but you. I can't help but be impressed by the coordination between the Israeli and US Air Force teams. Right. So talk to me about that. How complex is it when you're in a conflict like this and you're working so closely with a liaison partner with another nation?

[C]

Yeah, it definitely can be challenging if you don't do it a lot. But the thing that's really impressive about the Israeli military, US Military, is how the communication has been really good for years. And so when you have that, where you have the ability to train together, like we've done quite a bit, and then you have similar Systems. So the F35i, for example, you know, is very similar to the US F35 that's flown by the US Air Force and the US Navy. There's a few adaptions that Israel does to their own avionics and things like that. But overall, the fighter pilots can kind of talk the same language. The aerial refueling tankers all have the same, you know, connections. Just little things like that just make it easier.

[B]

Right.

[C]

So you're kind of speaking the same language when it comes to that. And then right now, you know, you're in operation centers where there's an Israeli liaison and a US Liaison pretty much in all the different headquarters. So you can deconflict. It looks like a lot of the deconfliction they did was to have Israel focus on a lot of the targets in the north of Iran. The US Is focused on targets in the southern central part of Iran. So again, that's just on the same Sheet of music. So so far it looks like the deconfliction has been really good.

[B]

Yeah, that would seem to be critical. Right. I mean, ensuring that the target packages are properly divided up and there's not that, that crossover necessarily, unless. Unless it's designed that way.

[C]

Absolutely. And fighter jets, right. So you've got a sky full of, you know, dozens, hundreds of fighter jets at any given time. And we saw what happened with the friendly fire incident in Kuwait. So the whole goal is to prevent that. And Israel's got a massive amount of jets, US has a massive amount of jets. So it's really important to make sure the aircraft are all talking to each other, they're all synced up on the same network. And a lot of that comes to the avionics specialists, the maintainers, the, the people on the ground, on both the Israeli and US Air Force to make sure the jets have what's called the right crypto. And that's basically a discriminator of who's friendly and who's not. And you have to change that sometimes every 24 hours, sometimes every 48 hours. So just little things like that could literally mean the difference between life and death. And I think so far, you know, what we've seen is just the professionalism of both sides has made no blue on blue incidents happen like we saw in Kuwait.

[B]

Yeah, I don't want to, I don't want to ask you to speculate, but do you have any insight or thoughts on that Kuwait friendly fire incident?

[C]

Yeah, I mean, very bizarre. Right off the bat, the, the only insider info I really have is that it was a legacy F18. And what that means is it's just the least advanced F18. The US Navy has pretty much, I think fully primarily transferred to the F18 Super Hornet, which is way more advanced avionics, way easier to see what's going on, bigger screens, bigger interoperability. And that matters. Like when you're a fighter pilot in the heat of the battle, if you're in an analog setup, which is like the Super Hornet is, it can cause more mistakes. So I don't know the details behind this Kuwaiti pilot, how much training they had, but I will say they're already at a disadvantage if maybe you're getting communications from a ground based radar saying there's some hostiles in this area interpreting the radar. And a legacy F18 is going to be tough for even the most advanced fighter pilot when you're in a combat situation with drones and missiles all around you. So I'll say that I think my opinion is this was an accident. This is a really big mess up. But there'll be a full investigation from the US Military, Kuwaiti military to see what actually happened. But the goal here is, you know, make sure it's not on purpose. Make sure that there wasn't some buffoonery like with loading those types of crypto things I was talking about that wasn't being done correctly. I mean that's something you've got to fix right away.

[B]

Is buffoonery a technical term?

[C]

It is, yeah. We learned that day one of, of flight school.

[B]

Well, that's got to be a bummer if you walk out and you know, the only, the only fighter jet left in the parking lot is, is like a legacy, you know, fat. You think it's like going out in an enterprise lot and all you got left is a. I don't know, I don't want, I don't want to denigrate any brand of vehicle, so I'll stop talking now. What's been the most impressive thing that you've seen over the course of the initial week or so of this campaign?

[C]

Well, I've seen a lot of the Gulf partners kind of step up, which I think is cool. I know early on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, they were kind of saying we don't want any part of this, you can't use our bases and things like that. So I think the relationship that's been built from the US military to the Gulf partners, there's a lot of to say about how that's been beneficial. Early on, Iran launched two SU24s which are a Russian attack bombers. So they look, they're about fighter sized aircraft but they're built for bombing. And from all the reports I've seen, they took off from southern Iran and they went to about 80ft over the ocean, so really low, trying to make their way to Al Udid, Qatar to drop bombs on, you know, likely us, the U.S. base there. But who knows, we don't know what they were going to target. So seeing the Qatari F15s who train a lot with us F15 pilots, they were scrambled, they launched and they shot those things down a few miles before they could do any damage. Now there's Patriot missiles on the shoreline and other things that could help defend against those. But I mean it's pretty awesome to see the Gulf State stepping up and saying, oh, okay, we see Iran's true colors and now it's kind of, it's clear to the world that they're a terrorist regime.

[B]

Yeah, I Think that's you. You highlighted, at least from my perspective, what is one of the most important aspects of this campaign so far, which is the way that the Iranian regime imagined that if they struck out at now they've attacked, I think it's 13 neighboring Gulf states, Arab states, and their thought process, you would imagine, is that okay, if we do that, then those states, you know, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, all of them will pressure the US And Israel to stop the conflict. And it had the opposite effect, it appears anyway, not necessarily publicly. Right. And you can't. Right. Ask. I don't think it'd be nice if they would come out forcefully and say that's enough, that's it. We are, you know, we're, we're united here against the, this brutal Iranian regime. But I don't think that's a realistic thing to expect. But, you know, behind the scenes, off the radar, they have kind of united in a, in, in a way against the Iranian regime, further isolating the mullahs and the irgc. I think that's a really important point there.

[C]

Absolutely. Especially as we see what comes next. Right.

[B]

Like, what do you think comes next?

[C]

Well, I think right now the, I really enjoy the focus that's happening with the air campaign striking, you know, B2s, just last night striking ballistic missile facilities, underground hardened facilities. So I think continuously taking it to these missile launchers. So you eradicate their ability to launch any of these ballistic missiles. And then the production facilities are now being targeted, according to the admiral of centcom, Admiral Cooper. So that'll be, I think that's smart. Take away any of their ability to produce any of, of this and just prepare the battlefields. So I think, you know, again, the timelines and the operational plans that I worked with are all classified, but let's just say broad number. It takes us, you know, two months to completely wipe out all their ballistic missile facilities launchers because again, these launchers are hiding now. Right. So they'll, they'll pop out, they'll launch and then they'll, they'll go in and just hide in like, you know, like a Dr. Evil style cave. So they're going to keep doing that. Like that's their, that's what they're going to keep doing. So we got to keep targeting them.

[B]

Yeah. People of a certain age are really appreciative of the Dr. Evil reference. Younger folks who. Like what. Who, who, who. Yeah, they are.

[C]

Or younger folks. Younger folks see the Dr. Evil memes. They haven't watched the movie, but I'm pretty sure they know the memes.

[B]

So they should be watching those movies because there's. There were no finer films ever made than the Austin Powers classic man.

[C]

And they relate to the Ayatollah. If you think of Austin Powers, just. You replace them with the Ayatollah. There you go.

[B]

Yeah. Or, or of course, the. Well, no go. The south park movie. And. Yeah, never mind. Let's just wander off that, that minefield. So let's. If I could, I want to be mindful of. Of time. One last question. There was a lot of talk about, and I don't want to get too much in the weeds in terms of, you know, the, the various aspects of the various aircraft, but we heard a lot of talk about the Growlers. How important are those to a conflict like this?

[C]

Yeah, very important. So a big part of the Growlers, what they do is electronic attack. And when you go up against an IAD system, integrated Air Defense System, early on, if you can just electronically scramble the signals with those different radars and keep them from talking to each other, you just break down the network. And what that does is it disconnects the radars from each other. Because when the radars are teamed up with each other, they give a full picture of, let's say, the southern part of Iran. But if a Growler comes in and is able to, you know, scramble the different electronic communication waves in that radar, then it can't talk to the next one. And then that basically just weakens and isolates and gives more of an ability to fly other jets in without even having to drop any weapons on it.

[B]

What did you call the silent corridors?

[C]

Yeah, silent corridors. It's a part of that. So the E18G would be a part of that. F22S would be a part of that. And then there's F16CJs, which are uniquely suited. Once they find where these things are, they're uniquely suited to strike them with HARM missiles. But their number one mission is to strike any surface to air missiles.

[B]

So you.

[C]

The E18G is a super capable electronic attack aircraft, but it's kind of. It's a team member that teams up with other aircraft.

[B]

Well, listen, Brian, really appreciate all your insight. It's terrific having you on again. Do you have any, any questions for me by any chance?

[C]

Yeah, absolutely. So you know, your background, CIA, kind of where my military thoughts go is. All right, so we've got the pointing into the spear now going in, hopefully removing all the infrastructure of the irgc, which it looks like daily it's Being plinked off, taken away, reduced effectiveness. But we're seeing IRGC members in the streets. I saw it on X yesterday. They're in the streets with machine guns, just firing machine guns into apartments. They're basically kind of the death throes. They're on their last leg, it seems, or they're desperate. And now we're potentially going to allow Kurds to come in and fight. But what does it look like taking down these IRGC members? You know, they're said to be 100,000 of them. How do you root that out in a country that's, you know, relatively advanced, infrastructure wise?

[B]

Yeah, the problem is it's not. The Venezuela situation can't be used as a template for, for Iran. You don't have it defined. I mean, there's an opposition, but it's not, there's no history in recent times of, of a defined opposition. Right. It's always been external, outside the country. And you're talking about unarmed people, as we've seen from the recent protests, whether they slaughtered thousands of them. And so, and the IRGC is, you know, essentially not all, but mostly made up of real believers from an ideology standpoint, the Islamic Republic. And, and they, you know, swallow that completely. So you shifting them off of a position, getting a fracture within that organization is what's hoped for. And you're looking for people within the irgc, within the armed forces and other elements to say, enough's enough and maybe we can, maybe we can lead a transition. Right. So you get that splintering of those organizations. But, and then the, the, from an info perspective, that's what the CIA does. Well, they're looking for those, those openings. They're looking for people that they could use. And then you get that top cover for the, for the, for the people of Iran. But look, the IRGC has already come out. They were very clear over the past, you know, 48 hours said, you come out in the streets, we'll kill you. Meaning, you know, the people of Iran, and they declared that. So it's, you're asking a lot from unarmed Iranian people who've just seen thousands and thousands of their friends and family members slaughtered on the streets in recent protests. You're asking a lot of them to come out when there is no internal armed opposition. So I think that has to happen. You have to get a major splintering within the existing infrastructure in order to give that, that ability for the Iranian people to rise up.

[C]

Yeah, that makes sense. So when it comes to like, let's say the Kurds, as An operator, you know, CIA operator. How do you know who you can trust and who you can't like which of these factions? Because if you turn loose an even worse faction in Iran now, you might have a worse problem. Right. So human dynamics wise, how do you assess?

[B]

I don't know what you're talking about. We've, we've never seen that happen before.

[C]

No, never.

[B]

Yeah. So, yeah, the problem. Well, first of all, you know, I think this sounds really cynical, but you never really trust anyone, and I don't, I'm not talking about anyone. I mean, I trust my wife is the best person I'll ever meet and my kids, but I, I think you, you have to approach the, the, the Kurds and understanding that there are a number of different factions. Right. And some that you, we don't want to get involved with for a variety of reasons. It's not, the, the Kurds are not really the answer to any of this. Right. It's interesting. And you could cause some chaos up in the western frontier area. And I think maybe that's what they're, they're thinking. If they are in fact dealing with the, some Kurdish factions and possibly arming them. I think they're looking at that. They're not talking about the Kurds coming in and, you know, creating a, you know, a sweeping change in the regime that they just don't have that ability. But it caused some chaos and perhaps pull some resources from Tehran and elsewhere to have, from the Iranian regime to have to deal with it. I, I wouldn't make much of that, though, frankly. That makes sense.

[C]

Yeah. I think that's the biggest problem right now. Right. Is how do you fight against IRGC members that have weapons training? They've got all the weapons. That's seems like a tough problem to me.

[B]

Yeah, I, I don't know that we're heading towards, you know, that, that happy day when you do get, you know, the removal of the mullahs and the IRGC and a new government that actually provides a really bright future for the people and also peace and stability for the region. You know, I'm not saying that, you know, it's going to be the end all and always going to have peace, but you'll never get shorter midterm peace as long as you've got the moas in the IRGC there. It's not in their game plan. So I don't know that we'll get there. You know, we may find that, that the best case scenario is, look, we've just defanged them We've, you know, destroyed all their weapons to the degree possible. And, you know, there's maybe we kick the can much further down the road than we have in the past. Right. And so it will be a problem, but it will be a problem, you know, 15, 20 years, whatever, 25 years from now, that's, that's a possibility. Ryan Bodenheimer, everybody knows him as Max Afterburner. What I got to tell you is thank you very much for being on the PDP situation report, man. And everybody should be heading over to YouTube and check out AX Afterburner USA. Listen, thanks very much, man. I hope to see you soon. Thanks, Mike. Great to be here. All right. Well, coming up next, a potential new front in the war with Iran, as Kurdish fighters along the country's western frontier may soon enter the fight. Some reports say that they already have in small numbers. We'll break it down with Bill Rogio from the foundation for Defense of Democracies. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here to tell you about a great company out there that every food loving person should know about. It's called Gold Valley. Have you heard about them? They're terrific. If you're a foodie, you're going to love Gold Valley. It's an amazing site that celebrates the best of the US by shipping the country's most iconic foods from legendary restaurants and chefs straight to your door. It's that simple. I've been a fan for a while now. One of my many favorites is Franklin's barbecue from Austin. We're talking brisket ribs, the full Texas spread. Ordered it for poker night at the Baker compound, and it showed up fast, perfectly packed and every bit as tasty as if you were in Austin sitting at Franklin's. So whether you're craving Lou Malnvadi's deep dish Chicago pizza or maybe Junior's cheesecake from New York, how about some Joe Stone Crab from Miami? Or meals from chefs like Ina Garden or Jose Andres Gallbelly delivers the real thing. If you're looking for that perfect gift or you just want to impress your friends and family with an epic meal, the next time you host a new doesn't want to do that. Well, they go to goldbelly.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code PDB. That's goldbelly.com code PDB for 20% off your first order.

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Select homes only. Welcome back to the PDP Situation Report. We just talked about the war in the skies over Iran, but now it's time to talk about what may be unfolding on the ground. New reporting suggests the CIA has been quietly working with Kurdish opposition groups along Iran's western border. The idea appears to be to arm Kurdish fighters and encourage them to engage Iranian security forces inside the country. If that happens, well, it could force Tehran to divert troops away from major cities, potentially creating space for unrest against the regime. While it's already, of course, under pressure from US And Israeli strikes. But the plan carries risks. I know you're shocked by that. From Kurdish factional rivalries to concerns from regional players like Turkey. For more on this, we're joined by Bill Rogio. He's the editor of the foundation for Defense of Democracies, Long Word Journal and a friend of the show in. Quite the sharp dresser too, might I add. Bill, great to see you, man.

[D]

Always a pleasure, my friend. Thanks for having me back on in this very interesting times.

[B]

What, was there something going on in the world? Yeah, it's happening.

[D]

I'm not sure what, but we'll figure out.

[B]

So let's, let's, there's so much to talk about here. But let's, let's start from this perspective. Do you think that the Trump administration is moving towards putting boots on the ground?

[D]

I think the Trump administration is very, very hesitant to do, to put brutes on the ground. I really hope they are not considering this. The only type of boots on the ground I would support is let's say they needed to occupy some islands off the coast or a small, small portion to conduct some operation, search and rescue or position or I would not recommend this administration put boots on the ground for a actual, you know, an operation to overthrow the regime or anything like that. Because frankly, look at our history, look at Iraq, look at Afghanistan, look at how these war, you know, hundreds of thousands of troops at times in both countries, governments that were supportive of our effort and we still lost these wars. I mean, Afghanistan 20 years to turn it back over to the Taliban, Afghanistan or Iraq. I think we shorted ourselves the Obama administration. That was a 20 plus year plan but he withdrew and basically that's become an Iranian state Trappy. So you know this isn't an issue of capability. I never questioned our military's capabilities. It's a question of political will. And we have to keep in mind that both of those wars were launched with significant support. I believe Afghanistan was around the 90% mark of support from the American public. And Iraq, I don't know the exact number. I'm positive is over 70%. I don't know what the numbers here in Iran. I haven't looked at the polling but I can't imagine it's close to 50. That's just a bad starting point. Those wars ended those Iraq and Afghanistan ended badly. You know with beginning with popular support. We read and I will say one more thing too. I'm very aware that the Trump administration has significant concerns about life. So last summer I'm aware that they were very concerned and I won't say how but I'm aware but they were very concerned about just bombing Iran last summer with leading to an Iraq's situation. They did not want to repeat that. So and I think that information made it out into the public. But yeah, so I can't see them doing this, but I could see them being pushed to do this. This is the problem when you get into operations. Mission creep, that's the, you know, everything start, you know, it's a great idea. We can win an air campaign, you can overthrow the government via the air and then that doesn't work. And then people start saying well maybe we need to do this. And look, history is rife with these. Look at Vietnam. It started with an advise and assist mission and turned into our one of the longest wars in our history.

[B]

Yeah, I think that the mission creep point is really a sound one. But I do think there's two parts to this. Right? One is when we talk about that for potential here, I think one of the things that could prevent that why you would have this hesitancy within the military command structures because a lot of these guys at the mid level, the senior level did come out of the global war on terror experience. Right. They came out of that 20 year war that you referenced in Afghanistan that came out of the extended period of time in Iraq. And so perhaps now there's two parts to this. Like I said, perhaps they've learned their lesson. The other side of that coin is I don't think we're very good at learning lessons from even recent history sometimes. And there is a very strong tendency on the part of, of the human condition to think, well, we can do it better this time. Right? We saw it going into Iraq, we saw it going into Afghanistan. Yeah, we understand there were problems, there have been problems going all the way back in Afghanistan. Alexander the Great, yada, yada, yada, but we can do it better. So I worry about, I worry about that balance there. And, but I do think also the White House, but they were very clear early on, right? Not necessarily the stating their objectives. That took them, you know, two days, three days to get to the point where it's okay, let's talk about our objectives. But they were clearly on, say this could take, you know, four weeks, take five weeks, whatever. They, they, they tried to define the fact that this was going to be a short term operation, even if it did take a matter of weeks rather than days. What can you tell us about the, this, this, this situation with the Kurds? There's been some talk, it's kind of died down a little bit. But there was some talk about, look, the agency, the CIA is out there working with the Kurds, possibly trying to arm one or more of the factions. There was some talk even that hundreds, maybe thousands of Kurds had moved into Iran during the past week as part of an effort to create chaos perhaps. And I don't think they're big enough and you know, I don't think the potential is there, I mean, for, for them to take over the country. It's not that simple. But tell us what you can about, about the Kurdish situation.

[D]

Yeah. You know, first, on the issue McHugh had mentioned with the administration, I don't worry so much about the military leadership, although I do worry about them some. Look at Admiral Cooper played basketball with a specially designated global terrorist in Syria. So what lessons did he learn? Did we learn there? And put, you know, basically put Al Qaeda's head of Syria in charge of, not put him in charge, but accepting of that. So I, you know, I look at this and I wonder what lessons. But these decisions are ultimately made politically. Right. And I do hope that the Trump, and I do suspect, you know, with J.D. vance, I think President Trump himself are very, very sensitive to the issue of brutal ground. But your issue with the Kurds, your actual question to me, you know, it seems like every problem we have in the Middle east seems to boil down to the Kurds, doesn't it? In Iraq, it's the Kurds. In Syria was The Kurds. The Kurds in Iraq that we worked with. I could accept the Kurds we worked with in Syria. That was the PKK or the Turkistan Workers Party and we ironically named them the Syrian Democratic Forces. This is a Marxist terrorist organization listed by the US Government as a foreign terrorist organization and we backed them. Bad idea if you didn't, you know, it caused Turkey to have Syrian. Look, I'm not going to defend the Turkish government or Iran or anything like that, but if you want to sour relations with the Turks, start working with the PKK in, in Iran. This group that is said that this PJ AK that is said to launched an operation with thousands of troops. I'm still trying to figure out what exactly happened here that we're talking about back in. It's Ukrainian version of the PKK now

[B]

it's a subsidiary, basically.

[D]

Yes, yeah, exactly. It's. It's an actual subsidiary. It's the Iranian plant. We abandoned our Kurdish allies after 10 years and they basically got smacked down by altitude. As Brant in Syria I. The Kurds aren't the solution here. They can be a thorn in the side of the Iranian regime. They could operate locally and in, in the northern areas of Iran. Sure, that's fine. I just really. Pjak, by the way, is also listed as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. government. You want to see if you want to have a ground game in Iran, it needs to be the Iranian people. It needs to be. The Iranian opposition needs to organize and needs to arm. The Kurds aren't going to do this alone in organized resistance, which I'm not seeing any evidence or very little evidence of. Yes, they're going to the street. Yes, they're fighting against police and whatnot, but they're not picking up arms because they're very difficult to get in Iran because it is a police state. But look, if groups like the Pjak and Baluch separatists and whatnot could get weapons, so can the Iranian people. And that's where if we're going to have regime change and my position is if you want to ensure that Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons and it's not going to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles that can threaten us. It's not destroy the missiles and nuclear program that exists on the ground. It's change this regime. And if you want to change this regime, it needs to be done on the ground and it needs to be done not by us. Not by the US we could support them via air, by providing with covert operations, etc. Etc. We could Be a support. You should not put American boots on the ground.

[B]

Yeah, I'm with you on that. Look, I think the problem that the Iranian people face is that, because I think we always look at things in very simple terms. And by that I mean the west tend to, tends to. Right, because that's how the media does it. We've got a three minute, you know, segment that we can do here. Let's have a beginning, a middle and end. So everything gets simplified. And so the Kurdish situation got simplified. Oh, the Kurds, we're gonna, we're arming the Kurds and now they're going to move in and they're going to help take over the country. And you think, well, which, which faction of the Kurds? Right, because I, you know, there's a number of them, as you pointed out, some listed as terrorist organizations, some with definitely competing agendas. You've got the problem of Turkey. And, you know, though they're a NATO member, they've been very clear for, you know, some 40 years about their feelings towards the PKK and, and any branch of the pkk. So it's a very complex situation. I, I think, I would argue, and we, I want to talk to you about this on the other side of the break, but I would argue that you can't stand back. You cannot stand outside of Iran and think, well, how come the people aren't taking their opportunity? Now look, they tried to take their opportunity. They were slaughtered by the thousands, right, Just recently by the regiment, tens of thousands detained. They're not armed. You've got a security apparatus that is very repressive and brittle, as they've proven over years. So unless you get a significant fracture, I think the way this has to work is you get a significant fracture within the irgc. The armed forces somehow were able to identify, and maybe those conversations have already been happening, you're able to identify individuals within that infrastructure that are willing to step out and make a change. And if they can do that and they have the credibility within those organizations and there's enough of them and they build up some mass that they do splinter and separate from this regime, then you've got a chance that would, that would be a scenario that I could see happen otherwise. Well, let's talk about what otherwise happens when we get back from this break. Bill, I'm sorry for, for bearing it on. I'm going to step off my soapbox now. And we're going to be right back with Bill Rogio after this quick break here on the situation report. So please Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time to talk about security, specifically your online security and to tell you about Delete Me. It's a great company out there working hard to make people safer online. Deleteme makes it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable. Look, it's easier than ever to find personal information about people online. You know that having your address, your phone number, your family members, information just hanging out of the Internet, well, that can have actual consequences in the real world and can make you vulnerable to all sorts of scams. If you're like me, privacy and protecting your online presence is important. We all want to stay protected from identity theft or harassment doxing. And you can do that with Delete Me. Take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for Delete Me now on a special discount for PDB listeners. You get 20% off your delete Me plan when you go to join deleteme.com PDB and use promo code PDB at checkout again to get 20% off. Just go to jointelete me.com PDB and enter code PDB at checkout one more time. Join deletemany.com PDB code PDB post People

[A]

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[B]

Edu hey PDB listeners, Mike Baker here with a quick recommendation for your podcast playlist. Look, if you like deep, insightful conversations with world class thinkers. And who doesn't? Come on. Check out the Jordan Harbinger Show. It's available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen. Jordan sits down with people who've been in the room at the highest levels. From national security leaders to thinkers reshaping how we understand the world. You'll hear ideas and stories that go way beyond the usual sound bites. Two episodes I'd recommend an interview with our friend Ryan Macbeth on Venezuela's collapse. That's a clear look at how a once wealthy oil state unraveled and what that means of course, for regional stability. And also his conversation with Douglas Murray where they explore the pressures facing Western democracies and what those trends mean for long term stability. Download the Jordan Harbinger show that's H A R B I N G E R Just like it sounds on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your shows. Or just go to jordanharbinger.com start to dive right in. It's one of those podcasts that makes you smarter, so give it a go. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again is Bill Roccio, editor of the foundation for the Defensive Democracy's Long War Journal. Bill, thank you very much for sticking around. So let's talk about that. What have you seen any indications of fractures or fissures within the regime itself, any sense that there is an ability to highball elements of the irgc, the armed forces, and get them to support some change from this current repressive regime?

[D]

Well, first, you weren't on a soapbox there. You merely were reading my mind. You were saying exactly what I'm thinking. That certainly has to happen. I do think the Iranian people do need to organize and arm themselves, but one way they can definitely make a make inroads is to get elements of the military to support them, if not get the entire military. So keep in mind there's the irgco, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. That's basically the Praetorian Guard for the Islamic Mullah regime. They have hundreds of thousands. They have a navy, they have an IRGC air force, they have IRC ground force. Then there's the codes forces, which is basically their external operations branch, special forces. They're probably the most ideological driven. There's tens of thousands of them. But Iran also has its own army, its own air force. It's, you know, and its own navy. The Iranian people need to be working with them to clean them. I have not seen evidence of this happening, but the theory is that US Military pressure will hit these, hit all elements of the regime, not just the irgc, but the regular army and navy and air force, and force them to make a decision. Force them to decide. I'm not certain this could be done in four to six weeks. That's, that's my big concern. I, look, I'll use an example. Saddam Hussein in Gulf War one, Saddam Hussein in Gulf War two. He did not break. His regime did not break even with the US Invasion, a ground invasion did not. The Iranian or, I'm sorry, the Iraqi military did not discard Saddam and his regime. It stuck. It stuck it out. And that was essentially an oppression regime, a regime of fear. The Iranian regime, the irgc, they're believers, they're true believers in the cause, in their Islamic revelation. The Iranian military supposedly not so much, but a lot of what I've heard is that elements of it have been become more radicalized over time. But yeah, So I haven't seen evidence of this happening. The idea is that this military pressure will force these divisions. I just, I, I'm concerned that it's not enough.

[B]

Yeah, well, we've heard some reports that, you know, and again, you never know until you get something that's verified, actually credible. But there have been some reports that there's been back channel conversations going on on the intel side. Right. So the agency, the CIA, you know, having conversations off the radar with elements of the Iranian intel apparatus and possibly looking for that transition capability. Right. Do we have, do we, do we have any chance of that happening? Now, President Trump came out and, you know, as said, on a handful of occasions, you know, put down your weapons, you'll, you'll have complete immunity. Right, but, but do the right thing. You know, whether that, whether that is, is a strong enough message. But again, to your point, look this, I think there was a sense going in that we do this, we drop some munitions, the people see that and ride is up. And it's just discounting how difficult that process would be for those people to do this. So what's a scenario? Are we looking at a situation, I don't want to sound cynical, but are we looking at a situation where the end of all this, whether it's six, six weeks, whether it's four weeks, whatever it may be, we're looking at basically a reshuffling of the deck chairs with the regime. We've certainly, you know, killed a number of their leaders and obvious commanders within the IRGC and elsewhere. But are we looking at that where we've, we've pulled all their teeth, we've destroyed their, their ability for the medium term to, you know, produce, manufacture weapons, but essentially that's it. People are still living under that same regime. And what we've done is said, okay, we've done enough damage for now. We'll have to deal with this in whatever, 10, 15 years.

[D]

So first you mentioned the back channel negotiations with elements of intelligence. I just would remind people, keep in mind the Iranians are really good at stringing us along with negotiations with Parks. I don't put much stock in that. I just look at how we dealt with the Taliban, how the Taliban fooled us in negotiations. Back in 2011, we thought we were talking to the Taliban's, one of the top Taliban leaders who eventually became the Taliban's Amir. And we were actually talking to some guy who just took hundreds of thousands from us. So I would question, you know, do we know who we're talking to in Iran? Right I've been at this a long time. I do tend to be cynical. I hope I'm wrong about this. You know, you raise an interesting point. I want to make one more thing. The Iranians, I know, they've made significant sacrifices. Tens of thousands slaughtered and detained. I hate to say this, and my Iranian friends hate to hear this, but it's not enough. Clearly, they have to fight harder if they want to overthrow this regime. I get the sense that they're sitting back waiting for us to do the heavy lifting for us. Not a perfect analogy, but look at the American Revolution. We fought for years and lost tens of thousands, which, if you translate that those numbers with the population of America was 2 million at the time. I mean, horrific percentage of casualties of the population. It took years before France came to our support, and then still we had to spill a lot of blood. Not just. Not just in soldiers, but in civilians that were killed. You know, if you want to overthrow an oppressive regime, you have to pay a horrible price to do it. I wish that wasn't so, but those are the facts. Now, to your question, but that does factor into this here. You're correct. If the regime will be a hydra, if we can defang it. But those things can grow back. We can chop off heads. Those heads will grow back. And I fear, yes, we could set their program back 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, but who are you leaving behind? Are these people going to be even more determined and more angry at the West? Do they redouble efforts to conduct terrorist attacks against, you know, you know, using, you know, asymmetrical warfare and terrorism throughout the Middle East?

[C]

They're not.

[D]

I just. They're Italy. I look at our campaigns against Al Qaeda for two and a half decades, the Islamic State for a decade. They rose up in 2014. We've conducted masterful decapitation campaigns, and yet these groups persist. And we think that. Do we think that we can decapitate an Iranian regime which is just as ideologically fervent? Were believers as much, if not more than Al Qaeda or the Islamic State that have the resources of a regime and hundreds, if not millions of people that. That are true believers, that wield the power of the state? This is where. Yeah, I don't think this is cynical cynicism by me. I think this is. This is just reality. And I hope I'm wrong about this being pragmatic.

[B]

Bill, I think it's not. Again. Yeah. Between the two of us, I've said this before. It's like, you know, where those two Old guys of the Muppet show up in the balcony, just, just hollering at things and just complaining and saying, this is not going to work out. But I think it's, the west has a hard time, and we've seen this over the years, right, decades now that we've been engaged in, in this, you know, long standing war on terror. And the west has a hard time understanding the value system of the radical, you know, ideologues. And so we, we think about this and we go, well, of course they're going to fold. Of course they're going to look and say, we want something better, we want a better life. Of course we want the bombing to stop. And we want to say, okay, what else can we do now? Let's have a, a stable society where we can, you know, all the yada, yada. I, that's not how it works. Right. It works for a lot of people, but not for the, the people that are in charge right now. So I don't know, you know, where this goes, but I really wanted your, your take on, you know, the, I guess if you, if you had to game this out, right, if you were going to jump into the poly market or calcio or whatever this, those predictive markets are, and you were going to place a bet, and it's a terrible way to end our conversation, but where would you say this is going to be? Let's give it, let's give it another month. Where are we in a month's time?

[D]

You know, and I want to reiterate a point. You just made our greatest failure in the war on terror and currently is a failure to understand the ideological fervor of our enemies. They are true believers. They're not pragmatic like we think of pragmatic. You know, they're not just salesmen, businessmen leveraging for the best possible outcome for them. They believe. Where do I, if I was to put money, I would go with what I'll call the Houthis scenario. Keep in mind, last year when the Trump administration launched its war against the Houthis because they shut down the Red Sea, they created a campaign plan that was supposed to take six months to destroy all booty capability. President Trump tired of this. Within a month, he didn't like the results of what was happening because the Houthis were still capable of striking ship. I mean, keep in mind, the Houthis, who are compared to the Iranians, have probably 100th the capability. He, he cut a deal with them. Right now, is Trump going to cut a deal with the Iranians, I don't know. But he can declare that military operations are over, that we succeeded in defangling the Iranian regime and keep them around. That's a, that's probably where I would place my bet. I'd like to see what all the options are. But you know, when I game it all out, I suspect that's what, what happens. But if there's certainly there is a, there is a reality or a, you know, an alternate universe where the regime does collapse. I mean, but even if the regime collapse collapses, I would expect there to be some type of insurgency. So those are the two options that I think I would, I would place my bet first on the, with the scenario and then possibly some type of collapse or power vacuum, maybe in a Balkanization of the, of the Iranian state and a civil war. So like neither of those outcomes are all that great for us. You know, the best outcome would be

[B]

a lot of these elements that have caused us too much trouble over the years. Right. They love nothing more than a power vacuum or chaos. Right. That's. And, and we've seen that repeatedly. So, and I think that has been the concern all these years. Right. You can argue why is every administration kicked a can down the road and you know, gone through this, this, this feckless charade of, you know, nuclear discussions over the years. And it's because of what you're describing, Bill. It's because of this fear of, well, I don't know what's going to happen. Right. And history tells us oftentimes that what backfills a change in this sort of situation is not better, it's worse. So that's been the fear. But I'm also of the mind that all we've been doing for administration after administration is putting lipstick on a pig and trying to deal with this repressive, brutal regime that has caused so much death and mayhem and instability and you never will get to long term peace in the region. I completely believe this with as long as the mullahs and the IRGC are in charge. But that change has to come, as you correctly pointed out, I believe from within. Right. You need a collapse of the regime internally from within. You need brave enough people or people with enough vision or people who just have enough self preservation instinct, you know, to say, and maybe their families are hammering on them saying why don't you perfect, why don't you, you know, do something?

[C]

Right?

[B]

Maybe that's what happens. And that gives top cover for the Iranian people to have a better life. Bill, I got to tell you this is a great conversation as always, and I hope you do come back and we pick up the phone and call you because I think that's going to be in the near future because I'm going to hold you to that bet on what's going to this is going to look like in about a month's time.

[D]

Yeah, we definitely should check up on that. Yeah, look, the Iranian look will, again, I say this all the time.

[B]

Wills win war.

[D]

The Iranian people need to find that will to fight against a regime that has will and abundance. And yeah, I would love to come back to you in a month and let's see where. We'll see where we are.

[B]

Yeah. Hopefully it's a happy ending. All right, man. Bill Rochio, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies thank you again for joining us here on THE Situation report. And that is all the time we have for the PDB Situation Report. If you have any questions or comments, well, you know what to do. Reach out to us at pdb@the first tv.com we love getting your cards and letters. And you know what we do? Every month we grab a bunch of your questions and comments. We throw them into one of our acclaimed at least in My Household Acclaims episodes called Ask Me Anything. So keep your cards and your letters and your faxes and your telegrams. Going to listen to the podcast to the show ad free. That is a very simple thing for you to do. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting bbb premium.com I'm Mike Baker and until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Finding great candidates to hire can be like, well, trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure, you can post your job to some job board, but then all you can do is hope the right person comes along. Which is why you should try ZipRecruiter for free at ZipRecruiter.com Zip ZipRecruiter doesn't depend on candidates finding you. It finds them for you. Its powerful technology identifies people with the right experience and actively invites them to apply to your job. You get qualified candidates fast. So while other companies might deliver a lot of hey, ZipRecruiter finds you what you're looking for. The needle in the Haystack.

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