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PDB Situation Report | May 16th, 2026: Hormuz Crisis Continues As Iran Retains Missile Power & Trump Meets With Xi Jinping
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Mike Baker
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Show Narrator/Producer
Welcome to the PDB Situation report.
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Mike Baker
I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears
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Show Narrator/Producer
on the world stage. And look at that. I'm still on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, new intelligence suggests that Iran may still retain significant missile capabilities. And as the crisis and the strain of Hormuz continues to drag on, we'll break it down with Bill Rogio from the foundation for Defense of Democracies. Later in the show, we take a closer look at President Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping following his visit to Beijing this week. We'll be joined by Steve Lance of NTD News for more on that. But first, today's SITUATION Report. Spotlight despite weeks of US And Israeli strikes, new intelligence assessments suggest Iran may still retain a significant portion of its missile stockpiles and launch capabilities along the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, maritime traffic through the critical waterway remains severely disrupted, with commercial shipping still operating at a fraction of normal levels. Amid fears of mines, drone attacks and
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Mike Baker
Iranian naval harassment, the growing concern now
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Show Narrator/Producer
is whether Tehran's strategy is shifted from direct confrontation to a prolonged campaign designed to keep global energy markets under pressure while negotiating an end to the conflict. For more on this, we're joined by Bill Ro. He's the editor of the foundation for Defensive Democracies, Long War Journal and a very good friend of the show, might I add.
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Mike Baker
Bill, welcome back, man, to THE SITUATION report.
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Bill Rogio
Thank you, sir. Always a pleasure.
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Mike Baker
And you know what? And you're not going to hear the word spiffy on everybody else's podcast.
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Bill Rogio
Look, I've been accused a lot of things and being A spiffy dresser is certainly not one of them.
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Mike Baker
Well, you combine it with being witty or pissy and you got the whole package right there, man. All right, we got a lot to talk about. Bill, if you could give me your top line assessment of the summit that just wrapped up between President Trump and President Xi Jinping.
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Bill Rogio
Yeah, that's an interesting question. It's really hard to know what they actually talked about. President Trump, typically when he has summits like these, meetings like these, he walks out and tells you everything's great. And he's made wonderful friends with the leader who of the day, who he's spoken to. Now, obviously, China is a little more important than your average nation. I honestly, Mike, it's difficult. You know, he seems positive, he seems to think that Iran, that, I'm sorry, China will cooperate on issues like Iran. I don't see that happening. China has provided intelligence, has provided military equipment to the Iranians. The Chinese continue to try to provide oil to the. I'm sorry, the Iranians continue to try to provide oil to the Chinese. You know, if, if that's what Xi told President Trump, President Trump shouldn't trust it and shouldn't walk out of that meeting thinking that all is well. Obviously that's a significant Iran. Focus analysis there. As far as trade and other worldwide issues, I don't think anything has changed China's position on, on Taiwan and whether that's part of the country or not, China's not going to budge on that. President Trump isn't moving on issues like tariffs. So I think this was more of a window dressing meeting than any real policy wins are going to be had by the Trump administration.
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Mike Baker
Yeah. What did you make of. I mean, there's been a couple of things grabbing the headlines in the, in the immediate aftermath of the summit. One of them was she's very early into the summit comments on Taiwan. And they've been classifying it as a, as a warning to President Trump about Taiwan.
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Show Narrator/Producer
What do you make of that?
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Bill Rogio
I think this is a little bit of saber rattling by Xi and by the Chinese. I think the Chinese understand their limitations in crossing that 50 mile strait and what it would actually cost the Chinese people, the Chinese government, in order to, to physically seize Taiwan. But that being said, I believe that he senses weakness in the US Position internationally. Despite Trump's effective strikes on the Iranian military, he hasn't achieved that political victory which ultimately matters. Right. That is, that is where you get the win. You could destroy a nation's military, but if it still exists, if it's still shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. That's a win for Iran. It might not be an ideal win for the Iranians. And I think the Chinese sense that the, the United States isn't about, isn't in this for long term conflicts and that they may be able to achieve something like reasserting control or, or perhaps influence over Taiwan over time, not by military means, but by pressuring the US by wearing down the US Will over time.
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Mike Baker
Okay. Now you, you've brought up Iran several times, which is where I want to shift our focus to Iran wanted to get your take on, on the summit since it's, it's so fresh in everybody's minds. And, and, and it is tied inevitably to the Iran conflict at this point, given China's purchase of Iranian energy supplies. And, but the reporting that's, that's come out, the intelligence assessments that are, there's no way it's definitely at odds with what's been coming out of the White House. White House has used words like decimated. We've obliterated the Iranian regime's capabilities, their missile program, their ability to strike back. So the intelligence assessment has come out and said that they've retained a significant capability. You know, how do you interpret that?
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Bill Rogio
What I suspect this is, is that that's probably the worst case scenario. And you know, intelligence assessments always have a best case, a worst case and a middle case scenario. And I suspect that this is an issue of taking the worst case scenario of intelligence where it actually is, is on the spectrum of what level of Iran's capabilities militarily. I cannot tell you. I'm not on the inside, but I suspect it's somewhere in the middle. The Iranians clearly have lost significant capacity to look. You look at their navy. Right. But the question is, is does that matter? Iran's missiles? It's hard to assess until you're in a hot war. I mean, we don't have boots on the ground. So intelligence ultimately at some level is guesswork. There's a lot of a hard, you know, science to it. You know, intelligence intercepts, satellite photography, classified sources, you know, individuals talking. Right. All of that. But how much of that is deception? We really don't know. And I, oh, one of my problems with the Trump administration's prosecution of this war isn't necessarily what it's done. Military, it's been its messaging and when, and we saw this with the 12 day war and then the US weighing in on the strike of the nuclear program. And President Trump triumphantly declared the program is destroyed. Yet less than a year later, the US and Israel are back targeting Iran's nuclear program. So it's, the message being sent there is we weren't being honest about last summer or perhaps we were exaggerating. So when in an assessment, when a worst case scenario is assessment like this is leaked, it causes it, I suspect there's political reasons behind the leak. There always is. Then the, you know, it raises questions even amongst supporters of the Trump administration and supporters of this operation.
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Mike Baker
Yeah, I think that's, it's a really good point. And look it also, it's not far fetched to say that perhaps the, the Trump administration is prone to exaggeration or you know, being somewhat braggadocious and, and, and you know, it's, it's always the best, it's the biggest. So okay, fine. It's still in line with kind of, they're consistent in that regard. Right. They're always kind of doing that. They're getting out way over their skis. I was really, you know, against the use of the word obliterated in the immediate aftermath of, of that and those strikes last year because that is from, from an operational or an intel perspective, we didn't know. Right. And the only thing you're doing is setting yourself up to get kicked in the backside when it's proven that that's not the case. And you know, much like all the way back in, you know, the 7th of October, brutal attacks by Hamas when Netanyahu said to completely destroy Hamas. No, you're not, you know, don't, don't do that. Don't set yourself up for, for a problem down the road. And it also points to this difference between, you know, the White House saying obliterated and now this intel assessment saying they retain a significant portion. It, it, it's a reminder of the years of the, the, the gaps between our, our assessments of the nuclear program in Iran. You know, takeout period is, is two months now. The breakout period is a year and a half. Now that gap shows you that we've got problems with intel collection on that target. And so we've always had that problem. So therefore you should always be somewhat pragmatic. Right. Because again, it does come down to messaging. And you know, speaking of getting kicked in the backside, I think the White
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Show Narrator/Producer
House realizes that the midterms are right around the corner.
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Bill Rogio
Yeah, look, I call it the D words. Right. As someone who tracked the targeting.
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Mike Baker
Wait a minute, where are you going with this bill?
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Bill Rogio
The decimated, degraded, defeated, done. All these words were used to discuss the targeting of Al Qaeda's leadership, the Islamic State. The Taliban attracted targeting of those groups for 20 plus years. We were told the Taliban were tired and they wanted to cut a deal with the United States. They were so tired that they took over a country. Just imagine if they weren't decimated, defeated, degraded, destroyed, and had a good night's sleep. Just what they could do. So these, this messaging of, you know, this grandiose messaging, it's not anything new to the Trump administration. However, this is on a different level.
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Mike Slater
Right.
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Bill Rogio
We're not talking about a terrorist organization. We're talking about a country that we're at war with that has shut down the Strait of Hormuz and how could a, the nation's military be defeated and yet we cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Someone hasn't explained this one to me yet.
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Mike Baker
Well, I think we needed to. Yeah. Ultimately, look, we're not going to solve their messaging problem. I don't think they're going to change their stripes in that regard. But I think we, we probably could have been clearer on the fact that you can't change a regime, you can't change the nature of that regime just by dropping munitions for the most part. Right. That's just not going to happen. And I think there was a lot of hope based on the Venezuela model that somehow, you know, enough musicians upfront and some economic pressure and suddenly we'd have a government that we could work with. So, you know, we've talked about that before on the pdb. I think there was a, there was an optimism there that wasn't necessarily warranted because they're apples and oranges, so to speak.
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Show Narrator/Producer
You can't compare the two.
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Mike Baker
Now from, from just looking at, at the assessment, again with this, this concept of they've still got the missile launcher capabilities, they got their miss piles, they've retained anyway, so I'm, there's no doubt they've had military success. Right. And the White House keeps pushing back. Every time you say, you know, well, where exactly is it they say, well, no, you're just, you're, you're, you're being overly critical. You're not recognizing the historic success of this military, you know, engagement that we had.
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Show Narrator/Producer
Well, yeah, you can do both, right?
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Mike Baker
You can say that, yes, you, you've had amazing success in, in, in certain regard, and yet you didn't obliterate these things. And we still have this problem. Have you seen anything that tells you
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Show Narrator/Producer
that the regime, the existing regime in
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Mike Baker
Iran is serious about trying to Negotiate an end to this with the US or do they find themselves in a position where we can keep this going for quite some time?
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Bill Rogio
The question is, is how hard will the blockade hurt the Iranian regime? And that I don't think anyone really knows. And I will say this, if that was the winning strategy, the blockade we would have implemented that from the beginning, allowed the Iranians to retaliate, launch attacks, then they would be the aggressors and the messaging would have been completely different. I don't know. I don't think anyone knows. I don't think the Iranians know how bad the, the blockade will hurt them. But I don't see this regime budging. Honestly. They're using Pakistan to do this. You know, shock of all shocks. Pakistan, which was such a great supporter of our efforts in Afghanistan and served as an intermediary with the Taliban, which caused the Taliban to take over Afghanistan, that they might not be working in our interest, who could have seen this one coming? But the Iranians are clever. They have, they're patient. As much as this war hurt them and make no mistake, it has. The administration is correct. They suffered significant blows. Again, its navy is indeed on the bottom of the sea yet again. Again, Strait of Hormuz is still closed. It's, you know, air force is basically non existent, although some planes have been thrown into Pakistan. Thanks again, Pakistan. The, the missiles and the launchers, they took a significant hit. What it is, I don't know. But their capacity is diminished, their ability to manufacture significantly diminished. And yet this regime isn't going anywhere. It didn't collapse like I think the administration felt it when many people thought it would if they, A lot of people thought this was a house of cards. We're dealing with Islamist extremists that run this country. And you know, we should be very familiar with this problem. We have a lot of experience dealing with the Taliban, with Al Qaeda, the Islamic State. As bad as we hurt them and destroyed their capabilities and targeted their leadership and hit those strongholds in their training camps, they just kept coming back because they're committed. The Iranian regime is committed as well. And that has not been factored into this. So and the other, the last point I'll make is that this is a, you know, a fight for survival. You're talking about extremists who were true believers and they have nothing to lose. They have everything to lose. Now if they can stipulate they'll be seen as weak internally within Iran, the almost trillion dollars invested over the last 47 years in its military and nuclear program and all that, all for not this regime. If it wants to survive, it cannot cave to the United States. And I think time is on its side. You mentioned the elections. President Trump has to consider that. And then there's also War Powers act, which is a whole nother issue that this administration will have to deal with shortly.
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Show Narrator/Producer
Yeah.
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Mike Baker
Yeah. I think they've tried to get around that. We can talk about that here in the, in the next segment, which reminds me, Bill, that we do have to we do have to take a quick break, then we'll be right back. Bill's gonna run and change into a suit for the next segment. And we'll we'll be back with more on THE SITUATION report. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I want to tell you about a, a man that you may have
- [16:53]
Show Narrator/Producer
heard about and that everyone should know about. His name is Jimmy lai. He's a 78 year old British citizen,
- [16:59]
Mike Baker
a father and a grandfather, and he
- [17:01]
Show Narrator/Producer
spent over the past five years in solitary confinement in a Hong Kong maximum security prison. Now, the reason he's in prison is relatively simple. When the Chinese Communist Party, the ccp, cracked down on Hong Kong a decade ago, Jimmy Lai refused to roll over. After escaping Communist China as a boy, Jimmy became a successful entrepreneur. Inspired by the Tiananmen Square protesters, he launched Apple Daily, a newspaper dedicated to freedom. This, of course, put him directly in the CCP's crosshairs.
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Mike Baker
Jimmy joined the pro democracy protests, becoming a global symbol for the rule of law. Earlier this year, Jimmy Lyon was sentenced to an additional 20 years in prison.
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Show Narrator/Producer
And at his age in failing health, that's effectively a life sentence. Now President Trump is also calling for Jimmy Lai's release. To learn more, visit supportjimmielai.com that's supportjimmylai.com learn about his story and tell others if you care about democracy and the rule of law, visit supportjimmylai.com@energy trust of Oregon.
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- [18:36]
Bill O'Reilly
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Show Narrator/Producer
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again, as promised, is Bill Rogio. He's the editor of the foundation for
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Mike Baker
Defense of Democracies, Long War Journal. Bill, thanks very much for, for sticking around. I appreciate that. And yes, as I noted earlier just before the we went to break, the tables have turned. I am indeed wearing a suit and a, in a pocket square too, which, which proves that I know exactly what I'm talking about when you wear a pocket square. And Bill is now in a T
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Show Narrator/Producer
shirt, which is my usual attire.
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Mike Baker
So I thought I'd point out the obvious.
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Bill Rogio
I thought I was dressing for the show. I, I, I, I, I totally didn't get the memo.
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Mike Baker
I know, I know. Look, if I wasn't, I'm dashing from this to a very posh event where I'm meeting with royalty or something. I'm just made that up. But let's, let's talk about resilience. You were at the end of the last segment, we were talking about kind of the, the idea that the regime
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Show Narrator/Producer
is still around, right.
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Mike Baker
That they, they see no upside to leaving. Obviously. It's a little bit like the Taliban. It's a little bit like going back to the Vietnam War.
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Show Narrator/Producer
Right.
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Mike Baker
North of Vietnamese, they had nowhere else to go.
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Bill Rogio
Right.
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Mike Baker
We're trying to. And, and, and the compounded problem here is that we've never really been particularly good at understanding radical Islam or fundamentalists in general and understanding their, their ability to absorb pain for, you know, their ideology or in this case, in part, because, look, I don't believe a lot of the IRGC are ideologues. I think they're opportunists. But they don't see any benefit to stepping aside. Right. They know, they've seen the Syrian model. They know what that's going to look like. So in terms of retribution. So I think we, we underestimated that. Obviously that's not a statement of rocket science, but when, when you look at what does that mean? Right. And I know I'm asking you to, to speculate here in a big way, but the Strait of Hormuz is effectively still shut down. Right. We are doing the blockade of Iranian ports. And now Gulf states are trying to develop this overland route for logistics to start trucking things in a bigger way. But trucking a rail line, building pipelines, it's not really as efficient as what we were dealing with before. When the Strait was essentially open. Although for years there's been this threat of the Iranians and they have done it occasionally tampering with the strait. So you know what, what do you think? What's, where is this going in the relatively short term?
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Bill Rogio
Yeah, it's, it's difficult to predict. Look at first. And I'll say this about the regime, right? It certainly is a mix of hardliners and ideologues and pragmatists. We don't know what that is. In Pakistan we tried to, we had intimate ties with Pakistani generals who came to US Military academies and we still could never figure out what that mix of true believers, pragmatists and just dealing with anti Indian sentiment. It was a mess then. And we think we could figure this out from afar. But one of the biggest failures to me in all of this is a failure to build a resistance. If you want to ensure the Strait of Hormuz is open and Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons, you need to get rid of this regime. And to get rid of the regime there needed to be an armed resistance to the Iranian government where they would have to focus on survival instead of doing things like trying to close down the Strait of Hormuz. That didn't happen. And I think that was the massive weakness in this and that has exposed the United States and the rest of the world to Iran's ability to, to be predatory in the Strait of hormones. I think in the next couple of months, I think we are going to be where we are today. I think the Iranian, unless they can, which I don't see. Because when you look at the negotiation positions, of course both sides always come out with, with everything that they want, right? The US Wants end the nuclear program and the missile program and stop supporting the proxies. But which, which of those are going to be sacrificed by the US by is, by Israel as well, which has a voice in this? The Iranians want the US to leave the Middle east to pay reparations and to control the Strait of Hormuz. Neither of the, none of that is acceptable to either side. The other side's demands. Where is there a middle. I mean, I saw President Trump now saying that he would agree, you know, if Iran agreed to a 20 year moratorium on a nuclear program, he would be open to that. I mean, if that isn't caticulation to the Iranians, I'm not sure what is because it just sounds like another version of jpcoa.
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Mike Baker
It tells me it is in the sense that it's it's simply putting a, whatever, a band aid on your chest. Right. Which is what every administration has done. And it implies that somehow we're going to be better this time at inspections and there'll be more transparency. And of course, that's, that's just a load of crap because it's all that would set up.
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Bill Rogio
Yes. You never have. I, yeah, well, you look at the Saddam Hussein model. What makes me think that the Iranians haven't learned from that and learned how to hide and deflect the inspectors and delay? Because once the fighting stops, the reality is, and this is what I worry about most in the United States is, look, there was low support for this operation to begin with. Is President Trump going to reinitiate military operations two years from now when you have a presidential election coming up? Could that sabotage his successor's ability to fight? What happens if, you know, the next administration, Republican or Democrat, doesn't want to dip its toe into this pool again because of how fraught it was? If you think about it, we pretty much threw just about everything we had or everything we could throw at them reasonably. And the Iranian regime persists. So what president is going to want to take that risk? Again, that's, that's, you know, very good point.
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Mike Baker
I think that there's, look, they, you could argue, I don't think it was intentional, but it served their purpose. They kind of set the table back in January by slaughtering thousands and thousands of their own citizens.
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Steve Lance
Right.
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Mike Baker
And, and, and we could go all over the place on, on this where I'm not, you know, again, I want to try to stay in a, in a particular swim lane. But, you know, you could argue this is a problem when you've got a very repressive regime and an unarmed population.
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Show Narrator/Producer
Right.
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Mike Baker
That's, that's why they want an unarmed population. You've still got this fresh memory of their friends and family being killed on the streets and, and countless others being detained. And, you know, so the idea that they're going to get out in the street and they have no weapons and they're dealing with security apparatus that is out there nightly saying, you know, you come out in the streets, we'll kill you. That's pretty strong incentive to not come out in the streets. And so, yeah, I think there was a, again, I go back to the same thing. I think there was because we always mirror our values on other cultures.
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Show Narrator/Producer
Right. And that particularly, that doesn't work when
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Mike Baker
we're talking about, I think, Islam and the Middle east.
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Show Narrator/Producer
And we imagined that with just enough
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Mike Baker
pressure, you know, we could create this internal uprising perhaps and then again end up with a government that we could deal with. I'm glad you brought up Pakistan. Right. Because you're absolutely right. There's very few countries as, as good as Pakistan at playing both sides. And you know, all you need to do is say Abbottabad and the fact that they were hiding bin Laden to understand what, what that's like. And you were right. They parked, the Iranians were able to park some air assets for safekeeping in Pakistan. So they're, you know, and yet they want to be seen as the, as the grand mediators of all of this right now. They've got a role to play, there's no doubt about it. And there are times when, you know, our liaison with them is very benefit of the United States national interests. Right. You're going to deal with what's out there. It's like people who get all moralistic about the, the Saudis, you know, you, you deal with the, the world that we've got. But again, I, I, let's get away from the, the speculation for a bit because I know that, you know, there's nobody really knows, but do you see
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Show Narrator/Producer
any, any indications or have you seen
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Steve Lance
any indications that
- [27:53]
Mike Baker
the, the costs, the
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Show Narrator/Producer
complexity, the resources being used in the
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Mike Baker
blockade of Iranian ports, that, that's got like a short timeline because that will tell you, as you pointed out, the Iranians are not unsophisticated. They've been watching the US For a long time. So they're looking at the elections, maybe they're looking at, at the blockade and saying, well, they're not going to be able to keep this up forever.
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Bill Rogio
Yeah, I think there is, I mean, look, the U.S. navy, as is, is overstretched. The ship, the level of ships are far too low. When the US Initiated the blockade, it had to pull ships back from the effort to try to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. And then when Project Freedom was announced, it had to pull ships from the blockade in order to try to get those ships through. I think that's one of the reasons why Project Freedom, which was that effort to escort merchant vessels through the Strait of Hormones, it was one day, right, two American ships were escorted through and that was it. I think there are significant limitations that are out there. Can the Navy do this indefinitely? Theoretically, yes, but it causes a significant strain on the US Navy's ability to deploy in other areas, to deploy in the Pacific, to deploy in the Indian Ocean, in the Mediterranean, in other areas where it's needed. So, you know, that's been one of my biggest problems with, you know, we spend over a trillion dollars in defense and the Navy should be one of, you know, is one of our premier abilities to project power, and yet somehow it's underfunded. I know the Trump administration wants to add another half a trillion dollars to the budget and our budget is greater than the rest of the world's military budget combined. And yet we have persistent problems. And it's a whole nother conversation, but it's mind boggling to me. I don't think the problem is throwing more money. The solution is throwing more money at the problem. It's fixing the problems we have with our existing system.
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Mike Baker
Yeah, that, well, you're right. That is a whole other conversation. And when you talk about sort of can the Navy maintain this blockade indefinitely. Well, you know, again, it's, it's, you know, saying that it's difficult isn't disrespectful to the, to the amazing, you know, people of the, of the service.
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Show Narrator/Producer
Right.
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Mike Baker
Or to our abilities. It's just saying that there, you know, there are realities there in terms of how long you can maintain an operation of that nature and that scope and scale. And of course, kind of going full circle to where we started our conversation a while back, Bill, is, you know, China, China's watching this because China has long thought that, you know, if they could get the US fighting on a couple or three different fronts, hey, you know, good news for them. They have no problems with watching us burn through munitions and strain our resources. So this doesn't happen in a bubble. It's not like what happens in the straight of Hormuz stays in the, in the straight of Hormuz. And I'm going to patent that saying. There's, there's something going on there. I think it's very catchy. Well, Bill, I gotta tell you, as always, man, it is, it's, it's always a delight, and I don't use that word lightly to have you on the show, man, and I, I like the new informal look.
- [31:15]
Show Narrator/Producer
I think you're sending the right message.
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Mike Baker
So listen, thank you very much, Bill. We'll, we'll have you back on soon, I hope, I hope you're willing and we really appreciate your time and your insight also.
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Bill Rogio
The Russians are watching. Always a pleasure. Appreciate you having me on and look forward to talking to you soon, sir.
- [31:35]
Mike Baker
Absolutely. And you're right. The Russians are watching. Bill Rogio, editor of the foundation for Defensive Democracies, Longworth Journal. What a great guy, terrific insights, and that you can count on him being
- [31:47]
Show Narrator/Producer
back on the show at some point in the near future.
- [31:49]
Mike Baker
All right, coming up next, we take a closer look at President Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing.
- [31:56]
Show Narrator/Producer
This week, we'll be joined by Steve Lance of NTD News to look at what exactly was discussed and what may or may not have been accomplished. Stay with us.
- [32:07]
Mike Baker
Hey, Mike Baker here with some super exciting news. I think that's what the kids say.
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Show Narrator/Producer
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Mike Baker
And mine the best part, you can
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Show Narrator/Producer
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Mike Slater
Hey, this is Mike Slater. I have a podcast called Politics by Faith. I would love for you to listen. We take the news of the day and we run it through the Bible. What does the Bible have to say about this? Because there's nothing new under the sun. Read the headlines. Everything's all crazy. World's coming to an end. It's all in the Bible. And after every episode, hopefully you leave with a proper perspective and a biblical piece. Please join us wherever you listen to podcasts and we also have a YouTube page as well. YouTube.com politicsbyfaith
- [34:09]
Show Narrator/Producer
welcome back to the Situation Report. President Trump wrapped up his high stakes visit to Beijing on Friday following meetings
- [34:16]
Mike Baker
with Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at
- [34:18]
Show Narrator/Producer
easing tensions between the world's two largest economies. Officials say the talks focused heavily on military activity in the Indo Pacific. China's economic relationship with Iran and the future of US Tariffs on Chinese goods. While both governments described the meetings as constructive, well, that's very diplomatic. Major policy breakthroughs appear to have been limited. Of course, the summit came against the backdrop of growing friction over trade, Taiwan and Iran, with both sides attempting to project strength. For more on this, I want to bring in Steve Lance. Steve is the Washington, D.C. bureau chief and chief political correspondent for NTD News.
- [34:57]
Mike Baker
Steve, thanks very much and welcome to THE SITUATION report.
- [35:00]
Steve Lance
Mike, thank you so much for having me.
- [35:02]
Mike Baker
Absolutely. Well, let's start with a very wide playing field here. What's your assessment of this summit that just wrapped up?
- [35:12]
Steve Lance
Well, as always, President Trump goes in to any type of negotiation, whether it's with Xi Jinping or European leaders from a position of strength this time. And I think a lot of pomp and circumstance. We saw perhaps a lot of platitudes, empty or otherwise. But I still think the president is very clear. I was heartened to see his gaggle on Air Force One this morning where some, you know, he faced quite a few tough questions, one of which was the Taiwan question. And he said on the plane that he was asked directly by Xi Jinping if he would protect Taiwan and respond if China were to engage in any type of conflict. And I think a lot of folks that have been watching this sort of play out have wondered, will the president, you know, double down on our policy to protect Taiwan? And although we didn't answer it directly, you could tell by the tone of his voice that if push came to shove, at least that was my impression that the president would do so. So I think I was heartened to see that. I think that we'll perhaps see some trade deals come out of it. But at the end of the day, I think a step in the right direction for America's interest.
- [36:38]
Mike Baker
It was very interesting that and of course, the media picked up on it right away was Xi's initial comments about Taiwan, which have been categorized as a warning to, to President Trump. And coming out of talks, you know, the, the Chinese side kind of put Taiwan up front and center in terms of, well, this is what we've been talking about. And the US Side didn't mention Taiwan, which I think is is interesting.
- [37:11]
Steve Lance
It is. It is. It's very interesting. And you have to keep in mind, like, you know, in China, Xi Jinping, he's not just talking to the president of the United States. He's also talking to the people within his own country, the generals in his country that, as we all know, he's had quite a bit of trouble with over the past few months. His number one, general Zheng Yosha, taken away in the middle of the night and nobody knows where he is right now. China is in a very volatile situation internally. A lot of people think that, you know, you hear leader Xi Jinping, or however people refer to the General secretary, that he has this sort of, you know, absolute power, and it's not quite that simple. In China, there's multiple factions and from, you know, reports that we have, there's a little bit of trouble in paradise, if you will. And so when he's messaging, you know, whether it be about Taiwan or Iran, everybody's watching him internally to see what his position is. And he has to answer to the cadres inside of the central government as well. And so clearly this is something that is very important to them. At a time when the Chinese economy is railing, typically they will default to some form of external struggle to rally national sentiment and nationalism and utilize their propaganda channels to sort of garner popular opinion within the country. Because keep in mind, for the past 20 years, the CCP has been able to buy the hearts and minds of the Chinese people through economic developments and the rising middle class, as they like to call it in China. And we've seen a Chinese economy that since COVID 0 the lockdowns, has faced tremendous pressure. And you compound that with the tariffs from Trump one and now the President coming back into office and leveraging more tariffs. The Chinese real estate market has crumbled. And so you can sort of gauge that they are hedging on a potential conflict to shift attention, perhaps internally to an external conflict. And it's obviously been the apple of Xi Jinping's eye for a long time, Taiwan. And so it's going to be very interesting to see what they do, especially now that the President seems to have messaged to Xi that he said, I'm not going to. For, for, for all of the, the friendly and jovial discussions that may have taken place, it was a, quite the, the insight when the President answered that question that when Xi Jinping directly asked him, he didn't answer him and he was pretty serious. If you look at the President's face on Air Force One when he was asked that question.
- [40:04]
Mike Baker
Yeah, well, you could argue that's right in line with decades of sort of our strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan, which I think is, you know, I'm not sure that that strategic ambiguity is, is going to be quite as effective or relevant in the next handful of years. Talk to me. I want to Go back to something you said just a moment ago. You talking about Xi Jinping's grip on power, perhaps not baiting an a kung fu like grip. What do you mean by that? What are you hearing?
- [40:38]
Steve Lance
Well, as we know, over the past decade or two, there have been a few dictators. And one of them was Zheng Zhi Min. And after him came Hu Jintao. And after Hu Jintao came Xi Jinping. And it's been reported that, you know, Xi Jinping was actually sort of a, a neutral choice between Jiang Zhimin and Hu Jintao. He wasn't seen as much of a threat or much of a strongman. And so they thought, you know, this would be a good choice to sort of protect both factions, the Jung faction and the Hu faction. And little did they know, as soon as Xi Jinping took power, you might, you know, remember about 10 years ago, he started with this anti graft, anti corruption campaign. And, and that was sort of typical. It was maybe a little bit more than what they had hoped for or bargained for. And typically when you do those campaigns inside of China, nobody really gets sent to prison. They sort of get sent to maybe some type of day facility or house arrest. It's not like they're being sent to a labor camp or things like that. But right now, from what we're hearing, this new purge that Xi has taken on, this is different. People are disappearing. High ranking officials, high ranking military officials, people are getting sent and tried to real prison. This is a complete turn from the norm. And he turns out not to be that neutral party. And so over the past 10, 12 years that Xi Jinping has been in power, he has taken action against a lot of very powerful people in China that aren't within his sort of clan. There's party elders that he has offended and he's feeling the effects of it right now. There were reports about a year ago of a potential coup attempt on Xi Jinping. And if you kind of read the tea leaves, no pun intended, you can see the dramatic amount of shift and rounding up of high ranking CCP officials, including the ambassador to the United States, the Chinese Ambassador, Qin Gong, who was just a year or two ago called back to China and disappeared for quite some time until re emerging just recently.
- [43:12]
Mike Baker
Okay, I want to pick up on all of this, Steve, but we've got to take a quick break.
- [43:18]
Show Narrator/Producer
Right.
- [43:19]
Mike Baker
So what I'm saying is please don't go anywhere. And we'll be right back with more
- [43:24]
Show Narrator/Producer
from Steve Lance, NTD News Chief political correspondent, and D.C. bureau chief right here on the situation report.
- [43:32]
Mike Baker
Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here with a tip
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Show Narrator/Producer
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Mike Baker
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- [45:45]
Show Narrator/Producer
Welcome back to the PDB Situation report.
- [45:48]
Mike Baker
Joining me once again is Steve Lance.
- [45:50]
Show Narrator/Producer
He's the Washington, D.C. bureau chief and
- [45:52]
Mike Baker
chief political correspondent for NTD News of Steve. Thanks Very much for staying with us and, and not, not getting up and walking away. We've had some guests do that. I just, I don't know what they're thinking. We're talking about the, the grip on power for Xi Jinping. And I realize some of that is speculative, but I'm, I'm fascinated by sort of this idea of how she views Taiwan and therefore how much of a, of a link can you make between when they move on Taiwan, if they do, and how long Xi is in power? Because it seems like that is a major part of his imagined legacy.
- [46:35]
Show Narrator/Producer
Perhaps it is.
- [46:38]
Steve Lance
And one of the biggest reasons, Mike, I would argue, that Taiwan has been such a thorn in the Chinese Communist Party side is because the ccp, you know, oftentimes when people will raise the different issues that China has, whether it is human rights or its treatment of political or religious dissidents, they'll say, oh, you don't understand China. You know, we've had thousands of years of history of single person rule, referring to the emperor system in China and comparing, you know, the emperors of old to Chinese dictators of new. And, you know, Taiwan is a, you know, flies directly in the face of that understanding. Taiwan is a free and open democratic country and it operates completely independently of the ccp. They have fair elections, some would argue some of the safest and open and transparent elections in the world, where the votes are counted in one day in front of rooms full of watchers. It's actually quite impressive. I highly Recommend Going to YouTube and watching the Taiwanese election day. I think we could learn a lot here in our system from it, to be quite frank.
- [47:52]
Mike Baker
Are you saying that, are you saying they get the election results in the
- [47:54]
Steve Lance
course of one day, one single day with very limited mail in ballots, mind you. Yeah, but if you go, I visited China and I visited Taiwan and the feeling, you know, they're both beautiful places, don't get me wrong. China's history, the people there, the civilization, it's really beautiful. You can see President Trump sort of soaking it all in and the Temple of Heaven and the Forbidden City and whatnot. But you can feel the oppressive security apparatus inside of China. You know, the secret police there, they're following you. It's just we saw that with the reporters, the press corps being restricted this time around. And when you go to Taiwan, it feels like New York City, Taipei, the capital there, you know, you can feel the freedom. There's freedom of belief, freedom of, you know, you're not looking over your shoulder. And the Chinese Communist Party knows that. And when the world can see the contrast. You're talking about ethnic Chinese. Right? That's who the Taiwanese are. It shows that the Chinese people can live in a free and open society. And the model is actually already there. And so that's one of the reasons that it poses a great threat. Plus there's a lot of tourism and trade that happens in China. So when the Chinese people come over to Taiwan, they say, hey, how come this feels different? I kind of like it over here. Maybe, you know, gets them talking internally. Maybe, maybe we could have a system like this. And so it's really, Taiwan, in a sense, poses an existential crisis for, For China to exist in the authoritarian state that they're in.
- [49:36]
Mike Baker
Yeah, that, that is. I mean, it's a fascinating idea because it just, it's sitting there, right there.
- [49:40]
Show Narrator/Producer
Right.
- [49:41]
Mike Baker
Sort of as. As an example, a shining example of what could be in a open and democratic or free and fair society, however you want to refer to it.
- [49:53]
Show Narrator/Producer
But if you look at, if you
- [49:55]
Mike Baker
look at the summit, and I know I. It seems like we always go through the same process. We are, there's going to be a summit regardless of between the US And Russia, whichever nation. And there's always this sort of imagined, well, we're going to get this big event, big developments, big outcomes. The reality, it seems, anyway, correct me if I'm wrong, is that oftentimes it's just, as you pointed out, a lot
- [50:17]
Show Narrator/Producer
of pop and circumstances, they're important, don't get me wrong, they're important to do these things.
- [50:22]
Mike Baker
But oftentimes the end result is much less significant than perhaps imagined. But with this particular summit, if you had to highlight the most important outcome, what would it be?
- [50:40]
Steve Lance
I would have to say it's time, Mike. I think, you know, the United States right now, President Trump has really recalibrated not just China, our relationship with China, not just our business relationship with China. But he's recalibrating, really, the world order to make it one, in my opinion, that is going to be safer for the United States and in our strategic interest. And one of those things that. Or something that needs to happen, a major thing that needs to happen is we need to start to near shore our critical minerals and the refining of those critical minerals that have downstream use in many critical applications, including in our missile Systems, in our F35s and our semiconductors. And why does that matter? China has a monopoly on critical minerals, roughly 70% of all critical minerals coming out of China. But more importantly, the refining capabilities which are Critical to having these being able to be used in these critical components. China holds 90%, over 90% of those capabilities. The United States has. Has zero capabilities. Right now, we're in the process of near shoring that and figuring out other alternatives away from China. Critical magnets for all of these, you know, military applications. And what we. What we need is time. So if the President has to go over to China and, you know, pump Xi's tires for a little bit and make him feel like everything's going well, I have confidence in this president that when push comes to shove, he recognizes that China is not our competitor. They're not a friendly competitor on the world stage. They're our adversary because their very nature, the CCP's nature, is evil. They're atheist. They persecute religious people inside of their country, and they are a grave threat. And that's the way they see us. And so I'm only saying that because in order to recognize that threat, we have to recognize it for what it is. And I'm confident that the President sees that.
- [52:58]
Mike Baker
You know what, you've just set the table perfectly for my last question, being mindful of our time. But I understand from my intel sources, and they're never wrong, that you have just produced a documentary. Tell us about that.
- [53:15]
Steve Lance
I have. Thank you for mentioning it. The name of the film is the Untold Story of Shen Yun. And I don't know if you or your viewers have seen Shen Yun Performing Arts. It's a classical Chinese dance performance with a tagline, china before Communism. And much as, like, we were just talking about Taiwan, why Taiwan poses a threat. Shen Yun, in a similar way, shows the Chinese people what China was like before communism and ultimately what China could be like without communism. And so the CCP has gone to great lengths to stifle Shen Yun's message. Shen Yun, it's actually an American company based in New York, and it performs all over the world. And they have faced tremendous transnational repression coming out of China. And what our film does is it has two tracks. One is a human interest track where we embed with the dancers and really get to know their process, what it takes to become an elite dancer. They're really like Olympians. And the other track is an investigative track that really follows and tries to understand the New York Times. The New York Times has their editorial process. They've come out with about 12 hit pieces against this group in a very short amount of time, which is an incredible amount of ink to give anybody, let alone a dance company. And what we do is we sadly trace back a potential connection coming straight from the highest levels of the ccp. Xi Jinping, a leaked memo that basically set the tone for these types of influence campaigns that have sadly may have made their way into America's paper of record.
- [55:01]
Mike Baker
The New York Times people primed the documentary.
- [55:04]
Steve Lance
You can watch it right now. It is streaming for free at unbroken Shenyun S-H-E N Y U N.com Excellent.
- [55:14]
Mike Baker
Well, I, I recommend it to everyone out there and as you know, Steve, we've got, I don't know, several hundred million viewers. So I think I, yeah, that's, that's an impressive, uh, documentary. I have seen the show and I did not realize the sort of the level of aggressive journalism that's been thrown their direction. So I encourage everyone to check out that documentary. Steve, listen, this has been excellent. Thank you very much for your time. I do hope when we call you, you'll come on back to the Situation Report.
- [55:49]
Steve Lance
Would love to. Thanks so much for having me.
- [55:51]
Mike Baker
Steve Lance, chief political correspondent for NTD News.
- [55:55]
Show Narrator/Producer
Thanks very much for joining us here today on the Situation Report.
- [55:59]
Mike Baker
And I know it's sad news, but
- [56:01]
Show Narrator/Producer
that's all the time we have for this week's Situation Report. If you have any questions or comments, or maybe you've got a humorous anecdote or two, maybe you've got a limerick, if people still do limericks, well, just reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com you know what I'm about to say. That's right. The highlight of every week at PDB headquarters, which of course is located under a dormant volcano like every good secret lair should be, is when Carl the mailman drops off another sack filled to the brim. I still haven't figured out how Carl all finds our secret layer. But anyway, filled with your postcards and your faxes and your emails and, and your Western Union telegrams. And then our amazing team, including our above average intern team, we all gather around our expensive conference table and we choose the best ones or the ones that we consider to be the most interesting and we throw them in to what we call an Ask Me Anything episode.
- [56:53]
Mike Baker
Another one just hit the airwaves not too long ago.
- [56:56]
Show Narrator/Producer
So I guess what I'm saying here is keep your cards and letters coming.
- [56:59]
Mike Baker
Finally, to listen to the podcast of
- [57:01]
Show Narrator/Producer
this show ad free. You can do that. It's very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and until next time. You know the drill. Stay informed, Stay safe. Stay cool.
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