PDB Situation Report | May 23rd, 2026: Ukraine Is Turning The Tide Against Russia & China’s Power Play

Summary

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The President's Daily Brief – Situation Report | May 23, 2026

Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Guests:

• Christina Harward (Institute for the Study of War)
• Gordon Chang (Author, China Expert)
  Theme:
  Ukraine Shifts War Dynamics vs. Russia; China’s Expanding Global Power

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Main Theme

This episode examines two urgent international developments:

1. Ukraine's shifting battlefield momentum against Russia, largely driven by innovative drone warfare and strategic disruption of Russian logistics.
2. China’s accelerating global influence, including its fresh alignment with Russia and its bold diplomatic stance following back-to-back summits with President Trump and Vladimir Putin. The episode also explores reports of Chinese support for Russia’s military, and the implications for the U.S. and global order.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Ukraine’s Momentum Shift Against Russia

[02:00–13:53, 16:40–32:39]
Guest: Christina Harward (Institute for the Study of War)

Key Insights

• Russia’s Offensive Slows: Russian advances in eastern Ukraine have "slowed to a crawl" as Ukrainian drone strikes hit supply lines and infrastructure far behind the front.

• Tactical Ukrainian Gains:

  • Liberations in the Oleksandriivka area (southern Ukraine) and around Kupyansk (northeastern Ukraine).
  • Ukrainian forces clawing back significant territory; these are small but strategically important advances.

  “The Ukrainians were able to liberate a couple hundred square kilometers… really significant.” (Harward, 04:28)

• Drone Warfare as a Game-Changer:

  • Ukrainians have developed layered, adaptive drone and air defense tactics, setting a global standard.
  • “No one on this planet really has the expertise Ukraine has. They are combating…hundreds of drones [almost] every night.” (Harward, 06:54)
  • Ukrainian drones now routinely strike Russian logistics hubs, air defenses, fuel depots, and infrastructure, sometimes deep inside Russian territory, including near Moscow.
  • Russia’s modernization of Iranian Shahed drones makes its arsenal formidable, but Ukraine’s constant adaptation keeps them competitive.

• Homegrown Tech & Rapid Innovation:

  • Ukraine’s defense industry, once reliant on western parts and funding, is increasingly self-sufficient, with most drones now produced domestically or in partnership with European allies for security.

  “The drone production really is just about entirely Ukrainian homegrown.” (Harward, 09:20)

  • Production sites are deliberately dispersed, including outside Ukraine, to evade Russian strikes.

Russia’s Response/Challenges

• Russia's Defensive Weaknesses:

  • Ukrainian strikes expose Russia’s lack of rear-area air defense.

  “The Russians have not by any means perfected their protection of their rear.” (Harward, 18:46)

  • Russia is now forced to make hard choices about what to defend, mirroring Ukraine’s earlier challenges.

• Civilian Impact, Information Control and Morale:

  • For the first time, ordinary Russians (especially in cities like Moscow) are feeling the war’s effects as drone strikes hit refineries, airfields, and trigger intermittent Internet/mobile blackouts for security.
  • The Kremlin intensifies censorship, restricts information on attacks (22:55–24:19), and cracks down on dissent, but popular protest remains muted due to fear of repression.

  “As much as they might be angry…they still are not going to be super willing to go out on the streets because they know the police will come and get them.” (Harward, 24:22)

• Manpower and Attrition:

  • Russian recruitment can no longer match high casualties; incentives (financial bonuses) reach diminishing returns, and some regions struggle to pay out.

  “Most of the people that are going to be financially incentivized have probably already signed up.” (Harward, 26:25)

  • Kremlin may have to consider unpopular mobilizations, now making legal/institutional preparations for this step.

Putin's Negotiation Triggers

[27:40–32:39]

• Putin’s theory of victory is to outlast Ukraine and the West, relying on slow, steady advances.
• Key change factors: inability to sustain losses, recruitment crisis, failure to retain captured ground, potential for more forced mobilization.
• Western resolve, especially EU’s, remains strong; the U.S. has become less central as daily leader but is still vital in diplomacy.

  “The U.S. is still leading the charge in negotiations… But the battlefield dynamics have changed.” (Harward, 30:51)

• Potential for a new U.S. posture under Trump, especially as battlefield perceptions shift in Ukraine’s favor.

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2. China’s Global Power Play & Alliance with Russia

[35:13–63:40]
Guest: Gordon Chang (Author)

China’s Diplomatic Moves

• Beijing as Diplomatic Hub:

  • In one week, President Trump and President Putin both hosted in Beijing, signaling China’s centrality.

  "China is making a major play for global influence and they're doing it fast." (Baker, 35:13)

  • China uses summits for signaling—Xi Jinping’s “new era” rhetoric implies China expects to rule, not just compete with, the U.S. (36:22–37:41)

  “New era is China's code for the period where they rule the world or they dominate it, and the U.S. is nowhere to be seen.” (Chang, 36:51)

  • Symbolic snubs to Trump—e.g., giving Xi a taller chair ("a mark not of a strong power…but of an insecure power." (Chang, 61:34))

• China’s Strategic Support of Russia:

  • European intelligence: Chinese firms train Russian troops in drone/electronic warfare—despite neutrality claims, there’s deep Chinese involvement.

  “We know that China has provided just about everything that Russia needs to fight in Ukraine.” (Chang, 51:30)

  • Chinese components in both Russian and Ukrainian drones; mutual dependency on Chinese tech (12:59, 16:40).

• Broader Foreign Policy Tactics:

  • China supplies Iran’s nuclear program (via Pakistan), supports and enables Iran militarily, and shapes public narratives to paint U.S. as the aggressor (53:32).

Competition with the U.S.

[54:43–61:11]

• AI Race:

  • U.S. leads, but only because China still relies on imported (often smuggled or U.S.-licensed) high-end chips.
  • The U.S. hinders itself by not cutting off access to key tech; “all we're doing by selling them advanced chips is helping them bridge the gap.” (Chang, 56:03)

• Chinese Domestic Weaknesses:

  • Hidden economic crisis: True Chinese unemployment could be as high as 20% overall, with youth unemployment perhaps around 40% (57:37).
  • Export and tech successes mask a broader debt bubble and stagnation.
  • Leadership is stable in civilian sense, but Chinese military is in disarray—frequent purges signal instability at the top (60:09).

• Aggression on U.S. Soil:

  • Chang alleges Chinese-run clandestine biolabs uncovered in California and Nevada, highlights general lack of U.S. government vigilance (44:27).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "President Trump handled it by being confident, by not replying. But I think at some point, Trump is going to get back at that Chinese leader for just being so inhospitable." (Chang on the Beijing summit, 37:30)
• “Xi’s chair was much higher, forcing the taller Trump into sitting in an awkward position…mark of an insecure power.” (Chang, 61:34)
• “We've got 48,000 Americans who died last year from fentanyl. And we know that the Chinese regime uses fentanyl to kill Americans. So...these are murders.” (Chang, 44:27)

Strategic Implications

• Despite China's bluster, its internal weaknesses undermine its global ambitions.
• The West must better communicate how China’s actions, from technological espionage to military support for adversaries, shape global conflict.
• U.S. credibility and alliance reliability are on display in both its arms sales (to Taiwan) and Ukraine support.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:00 – Ukraine’s momentum shifts; drone warfare overview
• 04:12 – Christina Harward: Ukrainian battlefield, territorial gains
• 05:44 – Deep dive: Ukrainian drone tactics, defense innovation
• 09:00 – Homegrown Ukrainian defense industry
• 12:45 – Russian & Ukrainian drone supply chains; Chinese component reliance
• 16:40 – Civilian impact of war inside Russia; Kremlin censorship
• 25:14 – Russian manpower crisis; Putin’s recruitment & mobilization
• 27:40 – What could push Putin to negotiate? Long-term calculus
• 35:13 – China hosts Trump & Putin, flexing global power
• 36:22 – Xi’s “new era”: China’s worldview explained
• 39:40 – U.S. arms sales to Taiwan; Trump’s diplomatic options
• 44:27 – Chinese clandestine biological labs in U.S.; lack of federal action
• 51:30 – European reports: Chinese training for Russian military
• 54:43 – The U.S.-China AI arms race; U.S. technology policy
• 57:37 – True state of Chinese economy and employment
• 60:09 – Xi Jinping’s political/military control and health
• 61:34 – Summit takeaways: Symbolic gestures, insecurity, significance for future U.S.-China relations

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Summary Tone & Style

Mike Baker’s approach is pragmatic, slightly wry, with probing yet accessible questions. Both guests are authoritative—Harward delivers clear, detailed battlefield analysis; Chang offers sharp, occasionally dramatic commentary on China, emphasizing security threats with urgency.

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Final Thoughts

The episode provides a clear sense of both shifting military realities in Ukraine (with potential for wider strategic opportunities for Kyiv) and the ongoing, complex contest for global power involving the U.S., China, and Russia. Listeners are left with a deeper understanding of how technology, public morale, leadership styles, and information warfare may shape the next phases of these major international struggles.

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Transcript

[Mike Baker]

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[Christina Harward]

Foreign.

[Mike Baker]

Welcome to the PDP Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. The first up, Russia's battlefield momentum in Ukraine has slowed to a crawl. Not even really a crawl as Ukrainian drone strikes hammer Russian supply lines and infrastructure behind the front. We'll be joined by Christina Harward of the Institute for the Study of War. For more on that later in the show. China is flexing its growing global influence. It's flexing all over the place. After hosting both President Trump and Vladimir Putin in Beijing. Even his new reports allege Chinese entities have been training Russian troops. Author Gordon Chang, very good friend of the show, will stop by to give his insight. But first, today's SITUATION Report spotlight. After months of grinding Russian advances across eastern Ukraine, there are growing signs that the momentum may be shifting. Russian offensives in several key sectors have slowed dramatically, and in some areas, Ukrainian forces have even managed to claw back small portions of territory. A major reason appears to be Ukraine's expanding use of mid range drone strikes. Now Ukrainian drones are hitting Russian logistics hubs, air defense systems, fuel depots and supply routes dozens of kilometers behind the front lines. Analysts say the strikes are disrupting Moscow's ability to sustain offensive operations while opening the door for deeper attacks against Russian military and energy infrastructure, including in and around Moscow. For more on this, I want to bring in Christina Harward. She's the Russian deputy team leader at the Institute for the Study of War. Christina, thanks so much for joining us here on the on THE SITUATION report. First time caller, I understand. I don't know if they say that on radio anymore, but welcome to THE SITUATION report. We have got a lot to discuss here, but let's start with this. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like the feeling is like and it seems like we're seeing some signals that there's a real shift going on in the Ukraine conflict right now.

[Christina Harward]

Yeah, absolutely. I think right now is a really fascinating time be covering this war. A lot of attention has been diverted away from the war in Ukraine, particularly as the war in the Middle east keeps going on. But there's actually a lot of really interesting things going on, not only on the battlefield, but also domestically in Russia and economically as well. I guess maybe I'll start with the battlefield because I think that's the most kind of predominant area to discuss here. But really since the beginning of this year, we've seen the Ukrainians make some pretty tactically significant advances and they've been able to liberate some territory. So kind of the two predominant areas coming to mind, there's going to be an area in southern Ukraine in what's called the Oleksandriivka direction. So this is kind of near the Dnipropetrovsk region and Zaporizhzhia region. And so the Ukrainians were able to liberate a couple hundred square kilometers of territory here, which was really significant. And then there's also an area up in northeastern Ukraine that the Ukrainians have been liberating for a Couple months now, started in the winter of last year and this town called Kupyansk. And so we can get into this more later. But the Russians really continue to claim that they hold the city, even though there's really no evidence to support that claim at all. But no, things are definitely seem to be shifting drone warfare right now. We're even seeing some of the Russian sources themselves complain just about every single day on Telegram that the Ukrainians are just really overwhelming the Russians with their drones both in terms of quantity and quality. So a lot of shifts going on right now on the battlefield for sure.

[Mike Baker]

And let's kind of focus on that drone issue because there's been a lot of coverage particularly bleeding into the Iran conflict and what the Ukrainians have been able to do in terms of soliciting business from Gulf states for their drone expertise. But talk to us about the kind of, what are the significant shifts here in terms of drone capability? Because both sides, it's not as if, you know, Ukraine's the only one. I mean, what accounts for the difference at this point in drone capabilities between the Ukrainian and Russian militaries?

[Christina Harward]

Yeah, so I think to answer that question, it's helpful for us to kind of break down the different levels of drone strikes that we're seeing. So there's kind of tactical frontline strikes. We've seen the Russians and Ukrainians kind of battle back and forth about the past year in the mid range. The Ukrainians sometimes call them middle range strikes. And then obviously there's the long range strikes. These are the ones that you're going to see most in the headlines. Obviously the Russians conduct these just about every night against even as deep as western Ukraine. And then as I think you're starting to mention, the Ukrainians are really upping their long range strike campaign as well. And so to kind of talk about, you mentioned the Middle Eastern customers that Ukraine has recently gained. No one on this planet really has the expertise that Ukraine has. They are combating again just about every single night, hundreds of drones. This is something that I think a lot of Western countries can't really think about trying how to combat that right now. And the Ukrainians have really mastered that. They have a very intricate multi layered air defense system and they have a very intricate kind of reconnaissance and warning system in place to kind of figure out where these drones, where these drones are coming from, where they're heading. And so this kind of multilayered air defense system, it's not only going to be a traditional air defense systems. Obviously the Patriot systems we hear so much about as well as other systems, but also mobile fire groups. So these are the groups of Ukrainians really just in a pickup truck that are out searching for these shahed drones and shooting them down. And then obviously now the Ukrainian interceptor drone program is really famous. And this is what a lot of the Middle Eastern countries are very interested in, as well as the United States, not the Western states. And so I think the Middle east conflict I think really opened the eyes for a lot of people to the threat, the scale of the threat that Ukraine faces because the scale is very different to what the US partners and allies in the Middle east are facing against the Iranians shahed threat compared to what the Ukrainians are facing against the Russians, both in terms of the scale, the number of drones that the Russians versus the Iranians are launching and also the quality of these drones. The Russians have spent the last few years really adapting and modernizing these shahed drones that Iran originally gave to them many years ago. And the Russians again have just really modernized them. They've turned them put into FPV drones. They very good at precision strikes. They've got different engines, they've got to get different antennas on them. So again the threat is just, it's a little bit different. But again, the Ukrainians have the expertise that no one else in the world has.

[Mike Baker]

How much of the Ukrainian drone capability is homegrown? Meaning how much do they rely on outside support for both manufacturing and also just the servicing, the use of the strategies for this sort of warfare?

[Christina Harward]

I think the Ukrainian domestic drone industry is actually definitely one of their successes. They've been working for a couple of years now to make the Ukrainian defense industrial base really self sufficient. And what that required initially and still today to a bit was Western investment, Western supplies and Western help in other areas. But now the drone production really is just about entirely Ukrainian homegrown, if not entirely. So this has been a big success story for the Ukrainians. That being said, the Ukrainians are very understanding that these drone production sites are high value targets for the Russians. So that's why we're seeing a lot of agreements being formed between European states and Ukrainians to build some of those production sites outside of Ukrainian territory. But these are still going to be Ukrainian drones just made in partnership with the Europeans.

[Mike Baker]

And I mean it sounds like what you're saying in part is that their success has been out of necessity, essentially field expediency. They've had to do this on the fly over the course of the past four years in order to survive. And so there's not really a question in there, is there? But what I want to do is say conversely with the Russians, how much of what Russia does with their drone capabilities is also homegrown, is also manufactured there, and to what degree do they rely on the Iranians for drone abilities?

[Christina Harward]

Yeah, so I think there's actually a lot to unpack in these statements and questions. So first kind of look at the Ukrainian drone industry.

[Gordon Chang]

Well, thank you.

[Christina Harward]

So the Ukrainian drone industry absolutely was kind of born out of necessity. I think another bit of experience and expertise that the Ukrainians have that really no other country in the world probably has, is how to have a defense industrial base that responds so quickly to a battlefield where the technology is sometimes changing in a matter of weeks. Right. The U.S. defense Industrial Base is pretty slow moving. There's a lot of red tape, a lot of bureaucracy, a lot of really big players involved. Whereas if you look at the Ukrainian format that they've really developed, it's a lot of smaller companies are allowed to participate in this kind of defense industrial production, but they're working really closely with the unit, sometimes on the battlefield directly. So they're not only getting feedback on the products they send to them, but they're getting requests specifically. So if a unit wants to, they know they have a certain type of operation coming up. They know they need certain types of weapons for that operation. They can work to get those weapons as quickly as possible. But as I mentioned, the technology race on the battlefield gets sometimes a span of a couple weeks. So something that might have worked at the beginning of the month might not work the beginning of the next month because the Russians have developed a countermeasure. Right. So this requires a really flexible, a really pliable defense industrial base. And that's a lesson that Ukraine has really internalized, and one that I think the west could really learn from them. And then in contrast, we have the Russian defense industrial base just about the total opposite. Very rigid, not flexible. Very top down. Very few players controlling this defense industrial base. Now, there are advantages to the Russian system, and that is that they're really good at scaling up a few select products. So that's why we see less variety on the Russian side in terms of the types of drones they're using, but they are able to massively produce them pretty quickly. So very different approaches here, again, both have pros and cons.

[Mike Baker]

Is it true that I read at one point that both Ukraine and Russia, and this would indicate just how bizarre the world could be at times, they both get key components for drones from China.

[Christina Harward]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, the shahed drones I'll use as an example that the Russians are launching at Ukraine. Obviously, when the debris falls, the Ukrainians find the debris, they dissect it. They're increasingly filled with Chinese components. They're also still filled a lot with Western components. So the Russians are still very successfully evading sanctions and finding third parties to be able to import these Western components from really major technological companies all over Europe and the United States. And so we definitely are seeing a lot of sanctions of Asia and again, continued deepening partnership with China. But you're absolutely right. There definitely still are parts from China that Ukrainians need as well. I know a big one is like fiber optic cables, for example. So there is a little bit of competition on the market for those components. But I but again, the Russia, Chinese relationship is obviously going to be a lot deeper in that sense.

[Mike Baker]

Well, I want to pick up right there. But first, the one thing we have to do is we have to take a break. So don't go anywhere. And we'll be back with more from Christina Harward here on THE SITUATION report. You know what I'm going to say next, right? Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here with some exciting news. At least I hope you'll find it exciting. Now streaming podcasts on Fox 1. That's right, because sometimes, as you know, the headline isn't enough. FOX one brings you on demand video podcasts that dive deeper into what's happening, getting you closer to the voices shaping the conversation across news and politics and culture. And check this out. This is really exciting. The PDB, the President's Daily Brief, huh, is now streaming on Fox 1. You can watch my show alongside other podcasts like Hang out with Sean Hannity. I'm sure you've heard him on the Riley Gaines show and Will Kane country all in one place. From the stories leading the day to hot takes, like the kids say hot takes to exclusive interviews, you'll hear perspectives from the boldest voices around. And mine the best part, you can watch or listen on your schedule whenever it works for you. Stream podcasts on FOX one anywhere, anytime on your favorite devices. Sign up [e-mail] whatever your thing, it could be anything.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Christina Harwood. She's the Russia Deputy Team Leader at the Institute for the Study of War. Christina, we were talking about the drone capabilities of both Russia and Ukraine and sort of that bizarre fact that China is benefiting from this by selling components to both sides in this war. Again, that shouldn't be a shock. The CCP is very good at playing one side against the other or playing both sides, however you want to refer to it. But if we talk about just the impact of Ukraine's abilities now to reach further into Russia, and you had mentioned this early in our conversation in the first segment about sort of the impact on the Russian people in certain ways that this war is affecting. What, what do you see now? Right. It's one thing if, if the war is some distant event, right. For, for the Russian population and it seemed like the first three years even that Putin was very successful at insulating at least the urban centers from the effects or, or the visuals of this war. But what are we seeing now as the Ukrainians seem to be having more impact in reaching in and including in and around Moscow?

[Christina Harward]

No, absolutely. I think the Moscow strikes in particular were very interesting and the whole debacle back and forth between Putin, Zelensky, about the Victory day parade on May 9 in Red Square So those strikes on Moscow and just in general, the increasing Ukrainian long range drone strikes that you mentioned, like against Leningrad oblast and refineries and all over kind of the European part of western Russia, what they're really showing us is a major Russian weakness, which is that they don't have enough air defense to control their entire rear. Now this is a problem that the Russians have been imposing on the Ukrainians for years. At this point, Ukraine does not have enough air defense. It's a very large country they can't control. Sorry, they can't protect everything. So we have seen them talk about publicly how they have to make these decisions between protecting cities, which cities get more protection, and then also having to protect the front line. So this is now the problem that Ukrainians have flipped the script and they're imposing on Russia. And what we're really seeing is the Russians don't have enough air defenses. So I think something that's been super interesting is the way that the Ukrainians are striking some of these main targets again and again and again. Sometimes in a span of a week or two, they're hitting them multiple times. I think that in and of itself, again, is a really strong indicator that the Russians have not by any means perfected their protection of their rear, mostly just because they kind of swept that problem under the rug. They kind of underestimated that the Ukrainians would ever be able to do that. We've seen actually for a couple of years now a lot of these Russian sources on, again, telegram, a lot of these are, they're very pro war, they're huge supporters, they're ultranationalists, they're very big Putin fans. And they have been complaining openly for a couple years now how the Russians have completely ignored the need to protect airfields, oil refineries, other high value targets. So this is a problem that's been going on for years. The Ukrainians are just bringing it to the forefront now with their repeated strikes. And so I think, again, it's really a weakness.

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah, yeah.

[Mike Baker]

Does it? I mean, I guess what I wonder is, is that a, how would you categorize that? You know, if you're Putin, do you look at that and you think, okay, well, you know, it's, it's, it's harder to hide the impact of this war now if, if you're getting facilities struck in and around Moscow or wherever. But I mean, how would you, would you categorize it? As more of an inconvenience? Or is this something that could be a significant development in terms of creating fractures within The Russian population.

[Christina Harward]

Yeah. So I think that's a really hot question right now and one that I've been thinking about a lot, just kind of personally, because when you're answering that question, you have to think about the Kremlin's very tight and actually getting even tighter grip on censorship in the Russian information space. Right. So this is not new that the Russians have controlled their population and their ability to have freedom of speech, but it's getting a lot tighter. So right now what's going on is the past few months, maybe even close to a year, the Kremlin has been shutting down mobile Internet. So this is having so many interesting ripple effects, right. It is creating friction amongst Sebastian people. You know, take residents, for example, of Moscow city, a huge modern metropolis. These are citizens that are used to GPS their equivalent of Uber, you know, and their equivalent of food deliveries and being able to use these, you know, go to a store and use your phone to pay. And all of a sudden, sometimes quite randomly without notice, all of those services just are completely gone. So these are citizens that are definitely being inconvenienced by this. So that's one factor to think about. And then we also are seeing the Kremlin issue some new, even stricter controls on how much the Russians are able to talk about the strikes when they happen. So again, it is not new that there have been restrictions on how much people can film smoke clouds that appear after a really large Ukrainian strike. You can't post that without getting punished. But for example, just a couple days ago they issued a new regulation where only a very limited number of officials in Moscow city are able to even publish information about strikes. Then anything that gets published afterwards has to follow that standard line that has been published. Again, this is really showing us, I think, that the Kremlin is aware that now more than ever they have to control this narrative. The Kremlin has really started this major censorship campaign in the beginning of this year where they're trying to, they're really on track to block foreign platforms like telegram, like WhatsApp. They've obviously, obviously already blocked Instagram, Facebook and other platforms. But Telegram is absolutely huge in Russia, so blocking that is going to be pretty significant.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I mean, look, they, yeah, nobody, nobody manages information dissemination like the Kremlin, you could argue. But it is fascinating because if you think about it, if you had deliberate government controlled Internet blackouts in the U.S. for example, and suddenly people couldn't use DoorDash, and by the way, DoorDash is not a sponsor of the show. So that was not a cheap ploy to do marketing. But, but you get my point. People would March on Washington, D.C. with pitchforks and torches. And so, you know, I kind of, sometimes it comes down to this, and I've had these conversations over the years about, I don't want to make too much of it, but the Russian population's ability to, to suffer under the, under the blanket of sort of dry humor. Right. They tend to have this, this ability to very dryly laugh things off that other populations might say, no, that's it, we're done. And so you wonder, that's kind of why I ask about the influence and the impact of the strikes going further into the Russian territory, the Internet blackouts, other things you wonder, okay, can it have a meaningful impact? Is it the sort of thing that could push Putin to the negotiating table in some meaningful way? And so it says, I guess, once again, there's no question in there, we're just having a conversation.

[Christina Harward]

No, but. And yet there's so much to unpack. I mean, so the thoughts kind of coming to my mind is, you know, unlike here in the US where we really do have the right to protest and write together, that freedom has very much been quashed long ago in Russia. The Russian people, I think a lot of, and we've actually seen polling recently to this effect, as much as they might be angry and they might not approve of these Internet restrictions, for example, they still are not going to be super willing to go out on the streets because they know that the police will come and get them. They've seen this happen. They've seen this movie before. They've seen the violent crackdowns of protests. For example, in September 2022, when the Kremlin initiated the partial mobilization, they saw the crackdown on that. And so I think the protest sentiment is a little bit lower in Russia just because the society is so different.

[Mike Baker]

What about manpower, personnel, keeping the numbers up? Where is Putin on this? How successful have you heard? This is always fascinating when you talk about casualty numbers. It can be all over the map. But from your perspective, what are the most credible numbers that you're seeing in terms of casualties on both sides, and to what degree can Putin continue this effort to keep his personnel numbers up?

[Christina Harward]

Yeah. So casualty numbers are difficult. There's not a ton of reporting out there. Really, the best we have is the Ukrainian general staff does publish their daily numbers of Russian casualties, but the Russian recruitment drive is definitely a hot topic right now. So we are seeing that the Ukrainians are having effect. The number of recruits that Russia is getting to sign up every month is starting to be less than or. Sorry, excuse me. Yeah, starting to be less. It's unable to replace their casualty rate. So you have kind of two things happening at the same time. You have the casualty rate going up. The Ukrainians are right now really focusing a lot of their drone strikes on the front line at the Russian infantry, trying to boost those numbers. So that's happening on the one hand, and then on the other hand, you have. The recruitment drive is slowing down in Russia. So there's probably a couple different reasons why less people are signing up in Russia. On the one hand, the main avenue that the Kremlin has used to get people to sign up voluntarily for this war for the past few years has been absolutely humongous payouts, sometimes significantly higher than an annual salary that most of the ordinary Russians in some of the regions are earning. So really high financial payouts. Now, what's interesting to think about there is the Russians have been doing this for a couple of years, so most of the people that are going to be financially incentivized have probably already signed up because, again, the bonuses have just skyrocketed. There comes a point when there's not that much of a difference kind of inside your brain when you're doing a calculus between a million rubles and 1.1 million rubles. So that's one thing that's happening. Another kind of factor to consider here is how is the Kremlin paying for all of those financial incentives? Right. We are increasingly getting reports that the regions are really struggling, the regional budgets are struggling. And so that's something to consider here.

[Mike Baker]

Christina, being mindful of time, last question, and I'm making this probably the most difficult question, and feel free to speculate, but what does get Putin to the negotiating table again in a meaningful way, so that he backs off of this constant, look, here's my list of demands, and I'm not shifting. So what do you think in your experience, what gets him to the table?

[Christina Harward]

I mean, something we're really looking at here at the Institute for the Study of War is again, his kind of theory of victory. So he's given a couple public statements in the past couple years that have really indicated that his theory of victory is predicated on a couple of assumptions, right? One, Russia can outlast Ukraine's willingness and ability to fight back. Russia can outlast the West's willingness to support Ukraine, and that Russia can just keep making these very small, very gradual, but all over the front line advances that will be able to prevent the Ukrainians from conducting any sort of counteroffensives. So Putin seems pretty satisfied, even if this war continues at the kind of very slow pace, and it has been going on for a couple years now. At this point, something we're really looking at is if he kind of gets backed into a corner between he can no longer maintain those advances again, even if they're slow, and the Ukrainians are pushing back. And then the other thing that we're really thinking might go into this calculus is his force generation problems that are starting to emerge. Right. So his recruitment rate is going down. The Ukrainians are inflicting more and more casualties on the Russians. Is he going to come to a decision point where he's up against a fork in the road and he has to pick what to do? Either continue how things are going where he's not able to replace his losses on the battlefield and therefore risking sustaining the tempo of his attacks, or does he have to conduct another, maybe involuntary partial mobilization? I think, really interestingly, there's been some indicators that he might be considering or at least preparing to have to think about the second option. So they've adapted some of their laws recently about the use of Russia's active and inactive reservists. And so we are kind of trying to look for these indicators if they might be preparing to call some of those reservists up and use them in Ukraine.

[Mike Baker]

It's very interesting what you said about, you know, his, his thought process and being able to outlast the West. It appears as if he was, you know, correct in a certain way that he outlasted the US but clearly the EU hasn't lost patience and they are showing their willingness to continue supporting Ukraine. I remember, you know, obviously the beginning of this war, every American was like, you know, putting a Ukrainian flag on their Twitter account. Yay. Had lots of flags. And. And of course, you know, as is typical in the US we tend to lose, you know, interest or get diverted or get distracted pretty quickly. So. But it is interesting now. I think people still imagine somehow that the US is, is leading the charge in terms of support for Ukraine, and that's just not the case at this stage.

[Christina Harward]

Yeah, I mean, the US Is still leading the charge in negotiations. Those are kind of on pause now since the war in the Middle east has really taken over. But the U.S. still, at least I think in the Russian statements, is still seen as like the main mediator of these negotiations. But I think something that'll be super Interesting if when President Trump kind of brings back his attention to the war in Ukraine is how the kind of changing dynamics on the battlefield that we already discussed maybe go into changing President Trump's calculus. You know, take for example, the 28 point plan that came out the end of last year. That was created in a battlefield situation that was very different than today. It was one where the Ukrainians were losing territory at a relatively faster pace. There wasn't really a ton of optimism about their ability to really contest the initiative on the battlefield and liberate territory. Fast forward a few months to now and things look really different. The Ukrainians are contesting the initiative. They have liberated significant areas of the battlefield. And these long range strikes just keep getting deeper, more intense, more frequent and more destructive.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, well, it's a really good point, actually, a really good way to wrap up our conversation. President Trump is obviously very transactional and he certainly loves a winner. So you're right. If the perception is things have changed, then one thing that President Trump has shown he's willing to do is change his position. So it could be very interesting to watch that. Christina, I just want to say thank you very much, Christina Harwood of the Institute for the Study of War. I hope that you will, you'll pick up the phone next time we call. I don't think this conflict is going anywhere. So I think we're going to have lots to talk about in the future.

[Christina Harward]

Absolutely. Thank you so much. It's been a pleasure.

[Mike Baker]

Absolutely. Take care. Thank you, Christine, thank you so much. Well, coming up next, new concerns are emerging about China's growing alignment with Moscow after. Oh, look, there's Moscow again. They're all over the news after reports revealed Chinese entities may have helped train Russian troops. I don't believe that Xi Jinping said anything about that to President Trump during their recent summit. Author Gordon Jang will join us to give his insight. Stay right there. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for every taxpayer out there. And I know there's a lot of you out there. Look, we've all heard those radio ads. You know the ones I'm talking about, the radio ads that are trying to scare you into calling the. And and because you're going to be afraid of the irs, you know, scary. I want to tell you about a different type of company, though, one that doesn't try to scare you into calling them about taxes. It's called Tax Relief Advocates. They're different. Look, if you owe money to the IRS, say it's 5,000 or 50,000, could be 500,000. I hope it's not 500,000. TRA tax relief advocates has a solution to your tax problem. TRA could reduce or even eliminate what you owe to the irs. Their passion is taxes and helping individuals and businesses fix their IRS problems. They've got over a thousand five star Google reviews and an A plus rating with a Better Business Bureau. And here's the truth. You do not need to be afraid of the irs. Right. Generous tax relief programs are now available that can give you a fresh start. So don't wait. Simply visit tra.com that's tra.com or call the number 800-583-6515. Once again, that number, 800-583-6515. Tax relief advocates real solutions for real people.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the BDB Situation report. China is making a major play for global influence and they're doing it fast. In the span of just one week, Beijing has hosted both President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, putting China squarely at the center of two of the world's biggest geopolitical flashpoints. The high profile meetings come as new reports raise fresh concerns about Beijing's role in the war in Ukraine. European intelligence now claims Chinese entities have been involved in training Russian drone operators, technicians and military instructors, despite Beijing's repeated insistence that it remains neutral in the conflict. Oh, of course it's neutral. Joining us now is Gordon Ji Chang, author of Plan Red, China's Project to Destroy America. You can follow him on X ordngchang. Gordon, thank you as always for being here on the show on THE SITUATION report.

[Gordon Chang]

Well, well, thank you, Mike. I really appreciate it.

[Mike Baker]

Well, we have not talked since the summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping. If you could give me, give me sort of your top Line assessment of the summit.

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah, we won't know really what happened at the summit for quite some time because this was not a summit which was sort of canned, you know, everything decided in advance. And I think that, you know, historians are going to argue about this one for a long time because it was significant. What was really interesting was, of course, Xi Jinping's arrogance. And people have focused on Thucydides trap. That comment he made on Thursday, the first day of the summit, and that refers to Athens and Sparta, ancient Greece, you have a declining hegemon, Sparta, that dangerously challenges, goes to war with a rising power. And so Xi Jinping was basically saying, you know, President Trump, you're a dangerous guy. But that was not the worst of it. The worst was Xi Jinping saying, new era. New era is China's code for the period where they rule the world or they dominate it, and the US Is nowhere to be seen. So this was insulting, arrogant in the extreme. President Trump handled it by being confident, by not replying. But I think at some point, Trump is going to get back at that Chinese leader for just being so inhospitable.

[Mike Baker]

Do you think it was polite, or do you think that maybe the US Delegation, for the most part, didn't understand what was happening in terms of the meaning?

[Gordon Chang]

They understood, I'm sure, because this Thucydides trap has really been discussed a lot in the US Government, especially the Pentagon. You know, they force officers to read this book, which isn't very good, which completely mischaracterizes the world today. And the reason is, you know, this book is, oh, you know, you gotta appease the Chinese, otherwise we'll have a war, which is just wrong on so many levels, because if there's a rising power in this bilateral relationship, it's the United States, it's not China. China is having so many problems right now. It is a decaying society. So there's so much wrong with that. You know, I don't know what was in Trump's head, but afterwards, he did go to Truth Social to discuss this very briefly. So, yeah, they knew about it, but they chose to basically slough it off, which is, I suppose, the right way. Now, if I were there, I would have been screaming and yelling, you know,

[Mike Baker]

but it's probably why they didn't invite you.

[Gordon Chang]

I'm shocked at.

[Mike Baker]

The Pentagon doesn't force their personnel to read your book. I'll have a word with them when we finish up here. And so this, I think what the media, it was interesting what the media kind of glommed onto in the immediate aftermath was Xi Jinping's comments about Taiwan. And he sort of categorized as a warning. What was your interpretation of that? And you know, to what degree does it. What he says there in that moment, Xi Jinping, I mean, to what degree does it. This is going to sound wrong. Does it mean anything?

[Gordon Chang]

It shouldn't have meant anything, Mike, because, you know, they made that comment through the Foreign Ministry. Apparently, Secretary of State Rubio afterwards said, yeah, the Chinese raised it. We listened, and then we moved on. But what has really caught people's attention is that Trump on Air Force One talked a lot about this, and he actually put himself into a very difficult position because if he doesn't go forward with the $14 billion arms sale, people are going to say, and this is not just China, but people around the world are going to say that Xi Jinping makes US Foreign policy, that Trump is afraid of, of the Chinese. There are so many reasons why we need to go forward with this arms sale. One of them is, look, the Chinese are bluffing. Xi Jinping has decimated the Chinese military. They're in no condition to invade the main island of Taiwan. And so if we don't support our friend at a time of need, people around the world are going to say, well, what's worth having the US as your ally? And it's not just East Asia. Japan is obviously the one that's going to really glom onto this, but it's going to be around the world. So this is a test of credibility and resolve, and Trump is just got to get over it. So this is his test. We're going to find out who's more powerful here. Now we're the more powerful society. But, you know, when you look at these, it's the will of the leader. And you can have a weak society led by a strong leader, and it becomes more powerful than the strongest society on earth. We know that because Vladimir Putin, who runs a weak Russia, has been able to get a lot of stuff done because of his will. And so really, right now, we're going to see if the US Is a feeble society or not.

[Mike Baker]

Well, I think it's fascinating that the whole idea of the arms sale, President Trump's direction with that, it looks like, honestly, in the immediate aftermath, flying back on Air Force One, and now recently he's raised this idea that he could speak directly with lighting the president of Taiwan, which seems like it would break a fair amount of diplomatic precedent and protocol. And that's got to be some kind of message. To Xi Jinping, 47 years of silence

[Gordon Chang]

where there's been no head, you know, head of state to head of state discussion. A lot of people say, Mike, that that conversation is not going to happen. I hope it does, because it then shows Xi Jinping. Look, you know, you know, you have your feelings, but we don't care. It's really none of his business. The People's Republic has never exercised control over Taiwan. No Chinese regime in history has ever held indisputable sovereignty to Taiwan. And so, and the people in Taiwan, they don't think that they're Chinese, by and large. We see this from self identification surveys where at least two thirds of the people say, no, they're Taiwanese. And this is especially true among the younger cohorts, 16 to 24, where you have numbers over 80% saying they're not Chinese. The number who say they're Chinese on the island is always below 5% in these self identification surveys, usually three or four. So, you know, it's time for the President, United States, to say, look, this is not your business, Xi Jinping, so go stuff it.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I agree with you, but I. Based on history and track record of not just this administration, but previous administrations, there's always seems to be a lack of direct conversation and a willingness to. I mean, this summit arrived and I know there was a lot of talk about, oh, this could be significant, high stakes talks, all of that. But that seemed to fly in the face of past summits where really very little gets done and very little direct talk happens. I mean, I was hoping that perhaps Trump would really lay into Xi Jinping about economic espionage, theft of intelligence, and their, their constant efforts to hoover up, you know, research and development information and data that, you know, there's a sidebar conversation that I'm sure takes place, but it's marginal at best.

[Gordon Chang]

Well, you got 48,000Americans who died last year from fentanyl. And we know that the Chinese regime uses fentanyl to kill Americans. So we don't. We shouldn't be talking about overdoses. These are murders. So take that. But think of all of the Chinese agents, operatives and soldiers on American soil right now. In just one example, we have found two Chinese biological weapons facilities on American soil. There's the lab in Reedley, California, a full lab with pathogens all over the place and mice genetically engineered to spread disease. And then Las Vegas, which was discovered and raided on January 31st of this year, which was a storage facility. And you know, Mike, in that storage facility in Las Vegas, they found a Reddish substance that were making people ill. It couldn't have been made in Las Vegas because it was not a full lab. And also it's very unlikely it was made in Readley because Readley was rated more than three years before the discovery of Las Vegas, which means there's got to be at least one more Chinese biological weapons lab on American soil. And you would think that this would be an important subject of conversation, and I certainly hoped it was. But this is something that the FBI needs to go to talk to the American people about because neither really nor Las Vegas was found because of federal initiative. These were only found because Americans, you and me, ordinary folks, just happened to see something that looked wrong and then went to the authorities, which means our federal government is just asleep.

[Mike Baker]

Well, and I think also to your point, there's a lack of, of, of dialogue, right? There's a lack of messaging, so people don't necessarily understand. We have the Arcadia mayor out in California, right, working as an agent for the Chinese Communist Party and you know, essentially a disinformation campaign that she's being directed in. And, you know, whether it's that, whether it's placing surveillance gear in, in regional telecoms, equipment purchasing land near, you know, high value targets, military facilities, you know, whatever, and the countless individuals come over, it seems like it always sort of is okay, just not that interesting to the general public because it's hard to, it's hard to explain. It's hard to quantify the damage over the decades that their behavior has cost America and our allies in terms of their decision that they're just again going to hoover up everything and skip that whole messy inconvenience development process and just reverse engineer things. I'm not quite sure how you get there. I know the Bureau, the FBI has been making more of an effort to have conversations in the corporate world to explain how these things take place, how this espionage occurs. And you know, but, but it's, it's, it's not sufficient at this stage. It's not enough of it.

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah. And look, it's of course difficult to explain to the American people, but there's somebody whose primary responsibility, number one responsibility, is protecting Americans. And that guy needs to talk to Americans about these threats because these are clear and present danger. We had two Chinese Americans leave a bomb near the visitor center of MacDill Air Force Base. And that, I believe, had all the hallmarks of a Ministry of State security operation. This was a warning to the President of the United States that the Chinese could detonate devices across our country. And then we have all those drone incursions. The most recent wave was in March. Remember four U.S. air Force base or three U.S. air Force bases and one army base. And that was after the previous wave of drone incursions over our military facilities. You know, the list goes on and on. And we just need to protect our country. So Trump needs to actually talk to us in ways which I'm sure he feels uncomfortable about. But his good friend Xi Jinping is about to take down our country with all of these operatives on our soil.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, there's a lot more to discuss here, Gordon, but if you would stick around, we've got to take a quick break and then we'll be right back with more from Gordon Chang here on the PDB Situation Report. Please stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here with a tip for gamers looking for the next great strategy game. I'm talking about Supremacy World War three. Look, it's a free to play grand strategy game where you lead a country through near future conflict, which of course, in today's world sounds very familiar. The matches unfold over weeks, not minutes. You're managing stealth bombers and submarines and other assets against 99 players in real time. Look, if you love tactics and strategic thinking, you're going to love supremacy World War 3. It's about forging alliances and navigating betrayals. It's also fully cross platform for PC and mobile. I said that like I knew what that means. Whether you prefer stealth and precision or total outright war, there's a strategy that fits your style. Download Supremacy World War III for free and see if you've got what it takes to dominate the global battlefield. That sounds actually really good. I would love to be in a position to dominate the global battlefield. There's a link in the show notes and a QR on screen if you're watching on video. If you download the game via my link, you'll get an exclusive starter pack containing the Elite Bomber seasonal unit, which has a value of $25. The offer is valid for the next 30 days.

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[Gordon Chang]

Hey, Bill O'Reilly here. Please check out my new interview series. We'll do it live. Each Thursday I sit down with the Most influential people in America. For a no spin chat, no script, anything could happen. You can find. We'll do it live on BillOriley.com, youTube, or wherever you download your podcast.

[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again is Gordon Chang. You can follow Gordon on xordengchang. Gordon, thank you very much for staying with us. What are you hearing about these recent reports? It's mostly coming out of European intelligence services that there were a couple of hundred Russian military instructors and officers in China working with the Chinese military, being trained up essentially in everything from electronic warfare to drone technology and strategies.

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah, I mean, why should we be surprised? Because we know that China has actually provided just about everything that Russia needs to fight in Ukraine. The only thing we haven't seen are officers of the People's Liberation army taking up arms. But by the way, there are PLA officers near the front lines in Ukraine. And we also know that there are Chinese mercenaries fighting in Ukraine, and those mercenaries could not have gotten exit visas to go to Russia without the knowledge and approval at the highest levels of the Communist Party. So when we hear that Russians were being trained in China. Well, of course they were, and I'm glad that somebody actually said this, but when you think about it, in the scheme of things, this ain't news.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, no, I, I agree with you. It's like saying, oh, my God, look, there's a Chinese listening base in Cuba. Yeah.

[Gordon Chang]

Four of them, at least.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, yeah. So, no, I, I agree with you. I think it is. It is interesting again, in relation to conversations. And of course, I wasn't there, so I don't know what was specifically said, but the conversations at the summit, you know, once again, when the Communist Party or, you know, Xi Jinping stands there and says that we are neutral, we just want to be peaceful mediators for this conflict, meaning the Ukraine conflict. You know, it's. It's just, it's galling in a way that we then have to stand there and listen to that rather than saying, well, you know what? Hey, I tell you what, let's. Let's take a peek at this and then present them with some briefing papers perhaps, you know, hey, show them a little bit of satellite imagery, give them some information without, obviously, sources and methods issues. But I just, sometimes I don't quite understand the stance that we take.

[Gordon Chang]

Well, I'll tell you something worse. The same thing with regard to Iran. And the Chinese always say there shouldn't be a war in Iran, and this propaganda is continuous. Well, I think that we need to say, look, yeah, there's a war in Iran. And the reason is because Iran has a nuclear weapons program. And the only reason. Well, the primary way that Iran got its nuclear weapons program were the Chinese, which supplied materials, equipment and technology, either directly or indirectly through Pakistan. And that's well documented. And we just need to say something because the world is saying, oh, you know, US is aggressive and, and is terrible and we're taking down the world order. And it's quote, unquote, law of the jungle, as the Chinese are fond of saying these days. Well, yeah, but look, we're there because you, China, created this problem. You have been supporting the Iranian regime with money, with diplomatic support, propaganda support, weapons targeting data, you name it. Everything but combat personnel. We need to say this in public because we're getting killed in the information war.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, well, that is true. We are nowhere near as aggressive or clever as we need to be. Let me pivot just a minute. The AI race, speaking of information wars, this is going to be such a simplistic question. In your opinion, who's winning, the US Or China?

[Gordon Chang]

We are. And the only. Well, the primary reason why China's in the race is because we keep on selling them advanced chips or letting them smuggle them. So give you an example. Deep seat, the Chinese AI company shook the world on January 20th of last year when it released its R1 model, took literally trillions of dollars off of the stock of Nvidia and other companies on US and other exchanges in the middle of last year. Deep Seek says, well, we have not been able to come up with our R2 model because we can't get good chips. We have to rely on Huawei's Ascend chip, which is a domestic Chinese one. So here you have the Trump administration in January authorize the export licenses for Nvidia's H200 chip, which isn't the best. That's the Blackwell architecture chip. But it's really good. And, you know, we know that the reasons that the Trump administration has given for granting export licenses. By the way, fortunately, the Chinese haven't bought any of these things yet. But the reason why is you have Howard Lutnick's commerce secretary say, oh, you know, we want to get the Chinese to get addicted to the American technology stack. Well, Howard, we know that China doesn't want to buy and rely on American chips. And all we're doing by selling them advanced chips is helping them bridge the gap until they can get their chips up to speed. So, you know, it's indescribable you know, we're helping them compete with us because the country that will win AI, in other words, win the 21st century, is the one that gets others to adopt their AI. And so it's a race to get others to adopt first. And we're helping the Chinese keep up, which to me is just wrong. Wrong on so many different levels.

[Mike Baker]

Mike, I know it seems like I'm jumping all over the place, but there's, there's a lot of ground to cover and I want to be mindful of time, but I'd seen that, that I was looking at issues related to the Chinese economy, and one statistic kind of stood out, which was that it talked about youth unemployment and it gave a figure which I don't know whether it's accurate, whether it's conservative, whether it's, you know, anywhere near close to being correct. 17% is what they said. Youth unemployment.

[Gordon Chang]

Yeah, well, it's higher than that. For April, the official National Bureau of Statistics said that urban unemployment in China was 5.2%. It's worse than that because a scholar from the Harvard Kennedy School toured China at the end of last year, came back and said the Chinese overall unemployment rate is about 20%. Now, if overall is 20, then youth unemployment is about 40. So that shows you where we, where they are right now. We, we don't know exactly what it is. And in China, it gets a little complicated because there's underemployment. You got college graduates delivering for the, the equivalent of doordash and Uber and stuff, but it's really bad there right now, so. Yeah, really bad.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, it talks about, it talks about how, how many were involved in the, whatever they call it, the gig economy, but as you pointed out, sort of the side hustle economy. And so I guess to the bigger question of the current state of the Chinese economy, how would you. I know it's hard to do it succinctly, so there's a lot there, but how would you describe it at this stage?

[Gordon Chang]

Probably contracting. If it's growing, it's growing at onesies and twosies range. But even if it were growing at the 5.0% pace that they reported for the first quarter, it wouldn't be growing. It wouldn't be growing fast enough to retire debt. China is accumulated an enormous amount of debt from basically the 2008 downturn when they embarked on this massive stimulus program. So Xi Jinping is taking the. And it's not just that China is in a bad shape. A lot of countries are in Bad shape. The reason why China's in really horrible shape is because Xi Jinping is turned his back on the common sense solutions to China's economic problems. So as long as he's around, there's virtually no hope that China will be able to dig itself out. Xi Jinping is digging even further. And yes, they're able to export a lot and they've got some pretty cool technology, but that's a pretty small part of the Chinese economy. Tech accounts for about 6% of gross domestic product, according to official numbers.

[Mike Baker]

And speaking of, for as long as he's around two parts. You hear anything interesting about his health and how do you rate his current grip on power?

[Gordon Chang]

Healthy. You know, he's, he's never been in real. He hasn't been in really good health for a long time. But, you know, he, he seems to be motoring on. In terms of politics, I think he stabilized a pretty dangerous situation among civilian officials. But in the military, the military is in disarray. And we know that because everybody keeps on getting purged and we have these death sentences and all the rest of it. People say that Xi Jinping absolutely controls the military because he's able to fire people. Yes, he's been able to fire people, but the fact that he's been firing people means he doesn't have absolute control, otherwise he wouldn't be firing people. So right now you got a China's military, which is basically incapable of the big operations, can do the small stuff really well. Got a lot of cool weapons, some of them better than ours. But when you talk about major operations, it is not able because it doesn't have the officers at the top.

[Mike Baker]

And final question, Gordon, going back to the summit, what's your one big takeaway from that? It could be, what was the most important development? It could be what was the biggest surprise? It could be what was the, the least impressive aspect of the summit? Feel free, take it anywhere you want to.

[Gordon Chang]

I thought the last day when President Trump went to Jongnan High, the leadership compound was really fascinating. I was angry when, and I mentioned, you know, Thucydides trap new era. But on Friday when they went to Jongnan High, they had Trump and Xi Jinping sitting in supposedly identical chairs. But C's chair was much higher, forcing the taller Trump into sitting in an awkward position. And I was thinking, that's so petty. This is the mark not of a strong power like he might have thought the day before. This is the mark of an insecure power. So I felt a lot better about things Afterwards, as I said, there's a lot that went on behind the scenes that we don't know and we will only know later on. And this is a significant summit because I think, think that one way or another, even if nothing gets done, that is significant. So we will just have to wait and see. And the real test of this will come with the decision on the arms sale. And by the way, you're right. Trump saying he'll talk to lighting, that's a good sign.

[Mike Baker]

Well, I tell you, it was, it was interesting because there was all this talk about he's my good friend, very productive talks, his goodwill. And then as they're walking on board Air Force One, there's a big garbage can and they've got, you know, all the reporters and the staffers and everybody just chucking their, their gifts and everything else into this garbage can. A lot of goodwill there, a lot of trust. I was glad to see it. Mind you, don't, don't get me wrong, that was, that's the right thing to do. But I thought it was a very interesting optic. Gordon, thank you, as always. Really excellent insight and we really appreciate it and we really appreciate your willingness to keep coming back on the Situation report. So thank you very much once again.

[Gordon Chang]

Thank you, Mike. I mean, it's so much fun and it's good to talk to a former CIA guy because it makes me give you facts. So that's good.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I appreciate, I appreciate that, that very much. Of course, nobody knew I was former CIA until he just said that. So now the cat's out of the bag. No, anyway, thank you, Gordon. I look forward to the next time, man. Take care.

[Gordon Chang]

Thanks, Mike.

[Mike Baker]

Well, that's all the time we have

[Gordon Chang]

for this week's fee.

[Mike Baker]

What a great guy and, and such a, a depth of knowledge on this subject matter. That's all the time we have for this week's PDB situation Report. You can hear the sad music in the background. If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes, please reach out to me that PDB@the FIRSTTV.com it's that simple. Every month, our incredible team, including our somewhat above average interns, select a bunch of your questions and we produce one of our critically acclaimed, or at least you know, in my mind it's critically acclaimed Ask Me Anything episodes. And finally, to listen to the podcast of this show ad free. It's easy to do. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. i'm Mike Baker and Until next time. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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