The President's Daily Brief: Situation Report | November 1, 2025

Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Guests: Ammon Blair (Texas Public Policy Foundation, former U.S. Border Patrol Agent and Army veteran), Reuben Johnson (National Security Journal, Director at Casimir Pulaski Foundation)

Episode Overview

This episode of The President's Daily Brief delivers two major international updates:

1. America’s Expanding War Against Narco-Terrorists: The U.S. military has ramped up its kinetic campaign against drug cartels in the Caribbean and Pacific, targeting smuggling vessels and those financing narco-trafficking networks.
2. Russia’s War Economy Under Pressure: New Western oil sanctions are biting deeper, causing significant strain on Russia's financial capacity to continue its war in Ukraine.

Mike Baker speaks first with Ammon Blair about the U.S.'s enhanced anti-cartel actions, then brings in Reuben Johnson for a deep dive into Russia’s collapsing war economy and his personal story as a former Russian captive.

Note: Advertisements and non-content sections are omitted.

Segment 1: America’s War Against Narco-Terrorists (00:12–25:53)

Key Developments and Initial Analysis

• US Strikes in the Eastern Pacific
  • Three more military strikes this week on narco-trafficking vessels (00:12).
  • 14 traffickers killed; one survivor recovered, Mexican authorities handling search and rescue.
  • Total deaths in Caribbean and Pacific campaign now exceed 50—"part of a push to choke smuggling routes and the criminal networks that bankroll them." (00:32)
• Policy Shift
  • The campaign marks a substantial change: treating cartels not simply as crime syndicates, but as terrorist organizations and nation-level adversaries.

Interview: Ammon Blair

Experience: Over 10 years U.S. Border Patrol, 20+ years U.S. Army. (00:40)

Why the Shift Took So Long (03:20–06:29)

• Ideological Obstacles
  • Blair:

    "The Mexican cartels and the cartels in the Western Hemisphere have been foreign terrorist organizations for now over a decade... we are now actually going after the enemy instead of the commodity itself." (02:11)

  • US hesitance to label cartels as FTOs (Foreign Terrorist Organizations) stems from ideological debates—are cartels just criminal, or genuinely ideologically driven?
  • Blair draws parallels between cartel training/recruitment and groups like ISIS:

    "If you go and compare and contrast what the ISIS does ... to what the cartels do ... that ideology is almost completely the same." (04:05)

• Political and Diplomatic Constraints
  • Admitting the cartels control Mexican territory implies admitting Mexico is a state sponsor of terrorism—"you would have to implicate... the federal government ... is also part in with the cartels... a symbiotic relationship." (05:05)
  • Domestic political interests (e.g., favoring open borders) have also stood in the way.

Skepticism About Impact (06:29–12:31)

• Baker’s Viewpoint: He's cynical about whether these actions can lead to lasting change without reducing demand in the U.S.:

  "They've proven themselves over the years to be incredibly good at adapting. Unless you can do something about the demand issue on the US side, I don't know ... if it's going to have an impact." (07:38)

• Cartel Entrenchment in Mexico:
  • Blair: Cartels evolved from simply moving drugs to controlling all aspects of Mexican society—agriculture, cyber, roads, government positions. (08:50)
  • "70% of all local governments are now controlled by the Mexican cartels." (10:39)
• Attack the Networks, Not Just the Products:
  • Blair warns: "If you do not attack the network, the entire network as it stands, then you're right, we're not going to see much change." (11:30)
  • Trade agreements like USMCA have been prioritized over direct action against cartel atrocities.

Future Direction (15:39–22:46)

• What’s Next for U.S. Policy?
  • Blair predicts: U.S. will "go after Cuba, Venezuela, trying to make sure that there is an actual democratic state within Venezuela ... as if we were going after any other adversary." (16:53)
  • U.S. should work with regional allies—Canada, Argentina, others—since cartels operate hemispherically and globally.

    "It's going to take like Canada, the US and all the other, all of our other allies within the Western hemisphere ... as a global problem." (20:54)

On Intelligence and Targeting Cartel Networks (22:46–25:19)

• Rebuilding Intelligence Capabilities:
  • Under prior administrations, U.S. military and law enforcement targeting was less proactive—overreliance on open source intelligence, lack of human intelligence.
  • Now, with FTO designation, enhanced HUMINT/SIGINT and joint military-intelligence operations are needed. (23:46)

Memorable Quotes

• Blair:

  "They may not be Muslim ... but they do worship ... La Santa Muerte... they bring religion into this attack on the US." (04:27)
  "If you look at the data from last election cycle in Mexico ... the mayor is one of the deadliest jobs in Mexico right now." (09:20)

• Baker:

  "We're just playing whack-a-mole...and we've seen that over the years in the past." (12:31)

Segment 2: Russia’s War Economy in Crisis (30:07–55:33)

Russian Oil Sanctions & Economic Strain (30:07–37:46)

• New Sanctions Target Lukoil and Rosneft:
  • Russia’s seaborne oil exports at lowest point since 2022, major buyers like India scaling back, and tankers being turned around. (30:10)
  • The result: "a growing cash crunch for the Kremlin." (30:27)
• Reuben Johnson Enters:
  • Background: Held prisoner by Russian military "for almost two weeks," survived a harrowing ordeal near Bucha and then Gostomel airport, describing Russian forces as "a massive criminal gang ... absolutely barbaric." (30:16–32:26)
  • Johnson’s account adds a vivid, personal dimension to the discussion of Russian military dysfunction.

Situation on the Battlefield (34:54–37:46)

• Manpower Disparity:
  • Russian forces outnumber Ukraine (“just many more people in Russia, period”), but are using brutal, catastrophic tactics that ignore high casualties.
  • "They're taking soldiers that have HIV, tuberculosis and hepatitis and putting them together in groups and sending them out to be killed as cannon fodder." (36:52)
  • Russian military morale is in shambles; units surrendering or suffering near-total losses.
• Ukrainian Strategy:
  • Disrupt enemy logistics and infrastructure so the Russians “may have more people in the field, but they won’t be able to feed them, provide ammunition, move or communicate.” (37:57)
  • The war is likely to produce massive, unprecedented PTSD among survivors.

How Might it End? (37:46–39:38)

• Johnson:
  • If oil profits dry up and sanctions bite, "Putin loses his war machine."
  • Russia could simply become unable to sustain large-scale military operations.
  • Johnson references “disruptive” campaign:

    "It's strategic disruption ... provided all that happens eventually, at some point ... the Russians give up due to exhaustion, or there is some... black swan event ... on the battlefield or back home in Moscow." (37:57–39:38)

Dissent and Destabilization in Russia (43:06–49:47)

• Sanctions on Major Oil Companies are a Game-Changer:
  • "Now those companies will find it very, very difficult to operate and they're going to have to sell operations abroad and all sorts of other emergency measures." (43:06)
  • Countries like India and China, who’ve benefited from cheap oil, now under pressure.
• Internal Russian Discontent:
  • Johnson recounts Wagner’s mutiny (2023):

    "No one's tried to stop them. No one's in the street with signs or flags saying, you can't do this... Civilians... are taking selfies... Let's see how this turns out. This could be interesting." (45:13)

  • Russian National Guard commanders dodged orders during mutiny—an early sign of regime brittleness.
  • At a certain threshold, security forces will no longer suppress protests; they could even "join it." (46:11)
• Signs of Desperation:
  • Russia is cutting military enlistment bonuses, "running around... talking about these wonderful doomsday end of the world weapons... signs of desperation." (48:24–48:36)

Weapons Propaganda: “Doomsday” Arms (49:47–52:40)

• Putin’s Claims:
  • Nuclear-powered Burevesnik missile, Poseidon underwater torpedo.
• Are They Real?
  • Johnson:

    "These nuclear weapons programs ... are not being run by the (military), they're being run by Rosatom ... tons of money flowing in ... what that means is that a bunch of it's being stolen. These are wonderful mechanisms for stealing money, which I believe is most of the motivation for continuing to let them run." (51:20)

Looking Ahead: Russian Regime Stability (52:40–55:33)

• Outlook for Next Six Months:
  • The war could pause as a result of exhaustion by February—but true end depends on Western leadership and follow-through, particularly in Europe.
  • Even if Ukraine conflict ends, new flashpoints loom: China, North Korea, renewed Russian moves in Venezuela (citing Wagner reinforcements) (53:00–54:18).
• What Gets Putin to Negotiate?
  • Only “enough economic pain” or a threat to his personal hold on power; authoritarian regimes are “very brittle.” (54:18–55:33)
• Memorable Closings:
  • Johnson (on the brittle nature of Putin’s rule):

    “By being very repressive, they’re also very brittle… the slightest little thing can set off a chain reaction, and the next thing you know… you’ve got a revolt on your head.” (55:14)

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• Ammon Blair, on designating cartels as FTOs:

  "If you go and compare and contrast what the ISIS does to their cubs, raising them to ... jihadists to what the cartels do ... the ideology is almost completely the same." (04:05)

• Mike Baker on US drug policy tactics:

  "We're just playing whack-a-mole, unfortunately. And we've seen that over the years in the past. And it hasn't worked." (12:31)

• Reuben Johnson, on the Russian military:

  "When I read today articles that say the Russian army has now become a massive criminal gang, I'm like, well, it kind of already was from the very beginning." (31:24)

• Johnson, regarding Russian regime stability:

  "If it's 100,000 people or more, we'll join it. And I think that's where we're heading. I really do." (46:11)

• Johnson on Russian “doomsday” programs:

  "These ... are wonderful mechanisms for stealing money, which I believe is most of the motivation for continuing to let them run." (51:20)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• US Anti-Narco Campaign Overview: 00:12–01:45
• Ammon Blair Interview: 01:45–25:53
  • Policy evolution, why the shift (03:20)
  • Problems of cartel control in Mexico (08:50)
  • On true impact and future steps (12:31, 16:53, 20:54, 23:46)
• Russia’s Economy & Ukraine War: 30:07–55:33
  • Johnson’s personal captivity story (30:16–34:30)
  • Battlefield assessment (35:10)
  • Sanctions and economic strain (43:06)
  • Wagner mutiny, potential for regime collapse (45:13–48:24)
  • Nuclear “doomsday” weapons; propaganda vs reality (49:47–52:00)
  • Outlook six months out (52:40)

Overall Tone

The conversation is informed, direct, and occasionally candidly skeptical—matching both Baker’s intelligence background and his guests’ practical experience. Both guests emphasize the complexity, corruption, and global scale of the threats discussed, while also highlighting the limits of tactical successes in the absence of broader strategic, structural change.

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