The President's Daily Brief: Situation Report | November 22, 2025

Host: Mike Baker
Guests: Edward Fishman (Center for a New American Security), Gordon Chang (Author, China Analyst)
Main Focus: Russia’s escalating economic crisis under sanctions and Ukrainian strikes; Rising China-Japan tensions after Taiwan comments
Date: November 22, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Mike Baker delivers a rapid, in-depth breakdown of two major geopolitical flashpoints: the severe strain on Russia’s economy due to intensified Ukrainian military action and new U.S. sanctions, and a growing China-Japan diplomatic and economic clash after remarks by Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, about Taiwan. Featuring expert interviews with Edward Fishman and Gordon Chang, the episode examines why these issues matter globally, how they affect U.S. interests, and the likely consequences in Europe and Asia.

Russia’s Economic Crisis: Sanctions, War, and Strategic Implications

Situation Update

• [01:11] Mike Baker opens with a briefing on Russia’s battered economy:
  • Ukrainian drone and missile strikes are hitting Russia's energy infrastructure deeper than ever before.
  • New U.S. sanctions are causing India and China to drastically reduce purchases of Russian oil, leaving tankers idle and revenue at a two-year low.
  • Russia’s war economy faces its most severe pressure since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Key Interview: Edward Fishman, Center for a New American Security

High-Level Economic Assessment

• [03:04] Fishman explains the West’s approach:
  • The U.S. and Europe have long tried to squeeze Russia’s economy while avoiding massive disruptions to global oil markets.
  • Now, with U.S. inflation and oil prices low, there's more room to directly target Russian oil.

“The Russian economy is quite large, but relatively simple. Their one globally competitive industry is oil and gas, and they use those revenues to subsidize everything else, including the military.”
— Edward Fishman [03:30]

Impact of Recent Sanctions and Russian Economy’s Fragility

• [04:40] Fishman notes that before new sanctions, Russia was already stagnating: no growth, high inflation, and very high interest rates deterring productive investment.
• Predicts a real risk of recession if sanctions are seriously enforced—but remains doubtful about the Trump administration’s willingness to strictly enforce them.

Trump’s Ukraine “Peace Plan” and Russian Leverage

• [05:17] Baker outlines reports of a proposed peace deal that would freeze frontlines and hand over the Donbas to Russia, drawing skepticism from Fishman:

“There is not a strong political constituency in the United States for selling the Ukrainians down the river. … Honestly, a lot of skepticism about Putin.”
— Edward Fishman [07:09]

• The plan is viewed as unacceptable by both Ukraine and European allies, with the EU labeling it “capitulation”.

European Leverage: Russian Sovereign Assets and Escalation Risks

• [09:24] Fishman discusses the critical role of $140 billion in Russian sovereign assets frozen in Europe (mostly at Euroclear in Belgium).
  • Main risk: Belgian fears of direct Russian retaliation if assets are seized to aid Ukraine.
  • Fishman believes Europe will act, driven by the political impracticality of making EU taxpayers fill the gap instead.

“If the Europeans don’t take these assets from Russia … Ukrainians are going to have a massive shortfall. And the only alternative is taking it from European taxpayers. … These assets are never going back to Russia anyway.”
— Edward Fishman [11:27]

Can the EU Sustain Pressure if the US Withdraws?

• [16:56] Fishman points out structural obstacles:
  • EU sanctions enforcement occurs at the member-state level, making them less credible globally than U.S. sanctions.
  • To maintain real pressure, the EU would need to centralize enforcement—a difficult but not impossible task.

Real Impact on Ordinary Russians

• [19:04] Population has largely been shielded from economic pain, but:
  • Over a million Russians have fled since 2022, many of them highly skilled.
  • Stagnant growth and extremely high interest rates (up to 20–25%) are stifling new business, except in the military sector.
  • A true oil revenue collapse would spark a “massive recession” and possibly significant domestic unrest.

“Putin has to worry about pressure from below … if their livelihoods are vanishing, they don’t have jobs, their savings are disappearing.”
— Edward Fishman [22:02]

Notable Moment

• [21:05] Baker’s wry summary:

“Obviously the one thing that could change Putin’s position ... would be the sense that he’s losing control of the population. … The Russian population seems able to suffer far beyond what the West imagines, but… the combination [of casualties and economic pain] could create the sort of dissent that Putin hasn’t seen since he’s been in power—which I believe has been about 190 years.”
— Mike Baker

Flashpoint Asia: Japan and China Clash over Taiwan

Situation Update

• [27:02] Baker reports a severe diplomatic collision:
  • Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi stated a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger Japan’s right to defend itself.
  • China’s reaction: branded the comment “egregious,” suspended Japanese seafood imports, issued travel advisories, and raised regional tensions.
  • PLA Navy increased maneuvers near the disputed Senkaku Islands.

Key Interview: Gordon Chang, Author and China Analyst

Why the Confrontation Matters

• [28:29] Chang explains that Japan’s "survival-threatening situation" language is directly from its 2015 security law, authorizing Self Defense Forces to mobilize.
• China responded with not just words, but actions—including economic retaliation and military maneuvers.

“The following day, the Chinese consul general in Osaka posted on X a statement basically threatening the assassination of the Japanese prime minister. … [China has] started to apply economic pressure … and of course, there have been Chinese incursions into Japanese waters.”
— Gordon Chang [29:08]

• Xi Jinping’s two main worries: (a) Japan “defying” China and inspiring others; (b) undermining efforts to isolate Taiwan.

Could Japan (and the US) Actually Intervene?

• [31:59] Chang explains that a blockade or embargo of Taiwan would likely include Japanese islands and force Japan (and the U.S.) to act:

“If [China’s embargo] were the case, then that's certainly an act of war, and the Japanese would obviously have to get involved—and so would we.”
— Gordon Chang [32:25]

• The real question: What exactly would China do? The response would depend on whether Chinese military actions directly implicate Japanese territory.

Can China Reunify Taiwan through Economic Pressure Alone?

• [33:51] Unlikely, according to Chang:
  • The vast majority of Taiwanese (esp. under 24) identify as Taiwanese, not Chinese.
  • A Chinese embargo would disrupt global semiconductor supply chains, hurting everyone.
  • Historical parallel: The world may say one thing, but actual reactions can shift rapidly in crisis.

“I don’t think that the world sits by and watches China do that.”
— Gordon Chang [35:10]

Why China’s Response Is So Aggressive

• [37:47] Chang speculates that Xi Jinping, beset by a flatlining economy and internal challenges, is seeking confrontation as a distraction and to maintain his grip on power.

"Xi Jinping … wants some sort of fight, probably short of a kinetic war, in order to prevent other senior Communist Party figures from challenging him. … He can’t compromise, can’t de-escalate, can't act constructively. That’s what makes this so dangerous."
— Gordon Chang [38:17]

• Likely scenario: War may not start with an invasion of Taiwan, but through escalation elsewhere, possibly involving Japan or the Philippines, and then spreading.

China’s Global Espionage and Western Policy Dilemmas

UK Exposes Chinese Espionage in Parliament

• [44:07] Chang discusses fresh UK government warnings about Chinese infiltration of parliament and decision-making.
  • China’s espionage tactics have grown bolder, seeking to shape policy and exploit “mega-embassy” infrastructure.
  • Some prosecutions have faltered due to lack of official “threat” designations, underscoring policy lag behind operational risks.

"[China] has infiltrated Parliament and British institutions ... and this is like the least surprising news of the year because, you know, China has infiltrated the United States [too].”
— Gordon Chang [44:07]

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Their one globally competitive industry is oil and gas, and they use those revenues to subsidize everything else, including the military.”
  — Edward Fishman [03:30]
• “It smells a little bit like where the White House is going with the Gaza situation... peace at any cost, basically.”
  — Mike Baker [08:31]
• “If the Europeans don’t take these assets... Ukrainians are going to have a massive shortfall... These assets are never going back to Russia anyway.”
  — Edward Fishman [11:27]
• “This looks serious because I don’t think either side is going to back down... [and] China has gone on a bender since then.”
  — Gordon Chang [28:29]
• “The Chinese consul general in Osaka posted on X a statement basically threatening the assassination of the Japanese prime minister.”
  — Gordon Chang [29:08]
• “Xi Jinping ... wants some sort of fight, probably short of a kinetic war, in order to prevent other senior Communist Party figures from challenging him.”
  — Gordon Chang [38:17]

Key Timestamps by Topic

| Start | Topic | |:------------ |:------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:11 | Russia’s Economy, Sanctions, and Ukrainian Strikes Overview | | 03:01 | Interview: Edward Fishman (Russian economy deep dive) | | 16:56 | EU’s Role if U.S. Withdraws, Sanctions Enforcement Issues | | 19:04 | Impact of Crisis on Average Russians | | 27:02 | Japan–China Clash: PM Takaichi’s Taiwan Comments | | 28:29 | Interview: Gordon Chang (Japan, Taiwan, and Chinese reaction)| | 44:07 | UK Warns on Chinese Espionage |

Closing Thoughts

• Both experts warn that stabilization or escalation in these global hotspots largely depends on U.S. and allied resolve.
• Russian oil sanctions and their enforcement (or lack thereof) may decide both the war’s course and Putin’s political fate.
• In Asia, the China–Japan rift is more than rhetorical—military and economic moves make for real danger, with Xi Jinping's domestic instability raising risks of deliberate confrontation.
• The episode closes with an eye on the intelligence war, as Western governments reassess their vulnerability to Chinese infiltration.

Staying informed is pivotal—and this episode’s brisk, detail-rich analysis arms listeners with urgent context for today’s shifting world order.