PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate

Summary

The President's Daily Brief

Episode: PDB Situation Report | November 23rd, 2024: Ukraine’s Deadly Weapons Race & the Mass Deportation Debate
Host: Mike Baker
Guest: Bill Roggio (Senior Fellow, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies & Editor of FDD's Long War Journal)
Special Guest: Jessica Vaughan (Director of Policy Studies, Center for Immigration Studies)
Release Date: November 23, 2024

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1. Introduction

Mike Baker opens the episode by highlighting two major topics:

• The escalating conflict in Ukraine driven by a new weapons race.
• The impending mass deportation efforts under the incoming Trump administration and the resistance from sanctuary cities.

2. Ukraine Conflict and Escalating Weapons Race

2.1. Biden Administration's Policy Reversal
Timestamp [00:15]:
Biden administration reverses its longstanding policy on the use of US-made long-range ballistic missiles (ATACMs) by Ukraine, permitting strikes deep into Russian territory. This marks a significant shift intended to support Ukraine's efforts against Russian aggression.

2.2. Russia's Response with Orshnik Missiles
Timestamp [00:44]:
In retaliation, Russia deploys an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Orshnik, targeting the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. President Putin addresses the Russian populace, asserting Russia's right to use such weapons against nations supporting Ukraine militarily.

Putin (Timestamps [02:00]-[03:00]): "We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities."

2.3. Analysis by Bill Roggio and Mike Baker
Timestamp [03:22]-[07:16]:
Bill Roggio joins the discussion, critiquing the Biden administration's decision as potentially vindictive, aiming to complicate policies for the incoming Trump administration. He expresses concern over the escalation and the lack of strategic foresight, emphasizing the risks of nuclear confrontation.

Mike Baker (04:44): "It's an administration that couldn't manage a war with the Taliban... and now they think they can manage a war with nuclear implications against a nuclear power. That's very disturbing."

2.4. Potential Impact of Incoming Trump Administration
Timestamp [06:38]-[10:44]:
The conversation shifts to the possible approaches the Trump administration might take, including renegotiating policies to de-escalate the conflict. Both hosts express skepticism about the feasibility of a swift resolution, predicting continued tensions and potential for further military engagements.

3. Prospects for Ceasefire and Negotiated Settlement

3.1. Outlook on Negotiations
Timestamp [21:46]-[30:56]:
Bill Roggio and Mike Baker discuss the likelihood of a ceasefire or negotiated settlement by early 2025. They argue that given the entrenched positions of both Ukraine and Russia, a ceasefire is plausible but may result in frozen conflict lines rather than a comprehensive resolution.

Mike Baker (29:07): "I think the Trump administration may be able to achieve some type of ceasefire or freezing the lines."

3.2. Realism in War Resolution
Timestamp [25:10]-[26:49]:
Highlighting the imbalance in military capabilities, Mike Baker underscores the need for realism in expectations, suggesting that strategic military support for Ukraine has been insufficient and that further escalation could undermine any potential for peace talks.

4. Mass Deportation Debate and Sanctuary Cities Resistance

4.1. Texas' Proposal for Detention Facilities
Timestamp [34:38]-[43:03]:
Texas offers the incoming Trump administration 1,400 acres along the US-Mexico border for detention centers to manage what is described as the largest deportation effort in US history. This initiative aims to centralize processing and detention to enhance immigration enforcement.

4.2. Challenges and Strategies in Deportation Efforts
Timestamp [34:40]-[43:03]:
Jessica Vaughan elaborates on the complexities of executing mass deportations, especially concerning individuals from countries unwilling or unable to accept deportees like Venezuela, China, and Haiti. She discusses diplomatic measures, such as visa bans, to pressure these nations into compliance and emphasizes the importance of targeted enforcement strategies focused on criminals rather than indiscriminate deportations.

Jessica Vaughan (35:56): "It only takes a modest increase in enforcement before people start following the law on their own."

4.3. Sanctuary Cities' Opposition
Timestamp [54:38]-[61:44]:
Sanctuary cities, led by Democratic leaders, vehemently oppose the incoming administration's deportation plans. They argue that such measures undermine community trust and public safety. Vaughan suggests withholding federal funds from non-cooperative jurisdictions as a tactic to enforce compliance.

Jessica Vaughan (40:42): "If you're going to block our federal agents from getting custody of criminal aliens directly from the jails, then you know, you're just not going to have access to grants."

4.4. Public Messaging and Enforcement Tactics
Timestamp [57:25]-[63:04]:
The discussion emphasizes the necessity of effective public relations to convey the importance of deportation efforts for national security and public safety. Vaughan highlights the need for outreach programs to immigrant communities to restore trust and ensure cooperation with ICE operations.

5. Conclusion and Future Outlook

Mike Baker and Bill Roggio conclude by acknowledging the ongoing nature of both the Ukraine conflict and the mass deportation efforts. They anticipate continued resistance from sanctuary cities and highlight the critical role of effective policy implementation and public messaging in the success of the incoming administration's initiatives.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Bill Roggio [03:44]: "When we're talking about the Russia, Ukraine situation, how, how screwed are we?"

• Mike Baker [04:44]: "This is an administration that couldn't manage a war with the Taliban... and now they think they can manage a war with nuclear implications against a nuclear power. That's very disturbing."

• Putin [02:00]: "We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities."

• Jessica Vaughan [35:56]: "It only takes a modest increase in enforcement before people start following the law on their own."

• Jessica Vaughan [40:42]: "If you're going to block our federal agents from getting custody of criminal aliens directly from the jails, then you know, you're just not going to have access to grants."

Key Takeaways

• The Biden administration's reversal on long-range missile support for Ukraine has escalated tensions, prompting Russia to deploy advanced missile systems with potential nuclear capabilities.

• Analysts express concern over the lack of strategic planning in the current administration's handling of the Ukraine conflict, predicting continued instability and dangers of nuclear escalation.

• The incoming Trump administration faces significant challenges in implementing mass deportation policies, particularly due to opposition from sanctuary cities and the logistical complexities of deporting individuals from non-cooperative countries.

• Effective public messaging and targeted enforcement are crucial for the success of deportation efforts, with strategies needing to focus on criminals to garner public support and ensure national security.

• The potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine remains uncertain, with expectations leaning towards frozen conflict lines rather than a comprehensive peace agreement.

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This detailed summary encapsulates the critical discussions, insights, and expert analyses presented in the episode, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current geopolitical and immigration-related challenges.

Transcript

[Mike Baker]

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[Mike Baker]

Pleasure. Thanks for having me back on.

[Bill Roggio]

Oh, absolutely. Look, it was, you were a crowd favorite, right? We've been getting emails and texts and postcards asking when you were going to be back on. I don't get that much.

[Mike Baker]

So thank you very much.

[Bill Roggio]

Well, we're just here for affirmation. So Bill, let's, let's start with a very specific question. When we're talking about the Russia, Ukraine situation, how, how screwed are we?

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, it's a very concerning situation. Look, I find that the Biden administration clearing the Ukrainians use of long range strike weapons into Russia in between, you know, as it's going to trans transition power to a Trump administration that has talked about negotiations to just be, you know, I, I don't, I don't even know how to describe that. Vindictive. I don't know what the right word is, Mike, but I, it's, it's unseemly at the least. It seems to be an attempt to sabotage Trump administration policies. If after almost three years of war, the Biden administration wasn't going to approve the long range strike capacity for US weapons, why would it do so now? And to me the only reason to do so is to complicate things for an incoming Trump administration. But what bothers me even more about.

[Bill Roggio]

This, they've hooked it on. But. I'm sorry for interrupting, Bill, but the White House obviously pegged this decision both on the, on the long range munitions, the atacms and the use of anti personnel mines. They've pegged both of those decisions to the North Korean presence. Right. Suddenly that was the game changer from their perspective. That's what they're saying. So do you have, is there any credibility in that from your perspective?

[Mike Baker]

It's an awful excuse. The North Koreans are providing what, 10,000 troops to the combat? Look, I'm no fan of Putin or his invasion of Ukraine. It's illegal, it's immoral, all of those things. But you know, look, Westerners have volunteered to fight in the ranks of the Ukrainian military. It's that kind of war. I don't understand how Ukraine or how North Koreans in a limited capacity all of a sudden clears the decks for the US to approve long range strike capability for US Missiles for something that bothers and caused the Russian to use an intermediate range ballistic missile that is equipped to use nuclear warheads to fire it on Ukraine. And you know, this is the, that the point I was going to make is that we're just seeing an escalation here. And I warned about this from the very, the day one of this war. This is an administration that couldn't manage a war with the Taliban, with a third rate militia that we've elevated into a regional power in Central Asia. And we think that it can manage a war with nuclear implications in, you know, against the nuclear power. And that's very disturbing. Where is Joe Biden? What is he, you know, look, I try to leave the.

[Bill Roggio]

I can answer that question. Yeah, I can answer that question. I believe he's still in the Amazon.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, the last I saw, he was walking into the forest. All joking aside, I mean, you know, he was shoved aside to run for president because of this. This administration should, you know, tread water in Ukraine and hand over the policy to an incoming Trump administration the, you know, two months before leaving office. It's going to risk nuclear escalation. I find this to be both disturbing and irresponsible at the same time.

[Bill Roggio]

There's so many layers here when we're talking about the decision from the Biden White House to do this. And as you pointed out, look, for the entire duration of this war, the one constant with the White House has been the fear of escalation, which is why obviously for all this time they did not approve the use of these long range munitions into Russian territory and pinning that decision. I agree with you on the North Korean issue. Right. It seems like a disconnect. Okay, sure, we're upset that Kim Jong Un is sending troops, but he's been sending munitions and hardware and other support for almost a duration of the war. Sending troops, yes. Visually it's bizarre, but you know, it's part and parcel of what you could probably have predicted from that relationship, particularly given the personnel issues that, that Putin has and the desire not to have another conscription. But I kind of have to side with you on this one that it seems, I think he used the word vindictive and it almost, that almost fits. Right? You know, because there's no other real logical reason for it. Unless. And let me get your opinion on this. Unless there's some intelligence that we're not seeing about a new counteroffensive in Kursk. Obviously, the Russians have been massing troops up there. Reportedly, they've got some 50,000, and that may be where the bulk of the North Korean troops are. And my guess is they're at the front of the line, about to be shoved into the meat grinder. But unless they felt as if Putin is close to moving on Kursk, taking back that territory and removing one of the few points of leverage that Zelensky has in terms of sitting down at the negotiating table. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let's talk warranties. I know that's. That's exactly what you were hoping I'd say, but let me ask you this. Would you buy a car without a warranty? Well, no, of course not. What about your other big ticket purchases? Specifically your home's appliances and critical systems? Again, well, the answer should be no. The bottom line is that every day is a good day when you're not worrying about your appliances and home systems. And that's. That's what you get. With an American Home Shield warranty. With an American Home Shield warranty, unexpected breakdowns like a leaky faucet or a faulty water heater won't break the bank because covered repairs and replacements are taken care of just like that. And having that sort of reassurance, well, that's peace of mind. Choose a plan that works for you and your budget, and then it's simple. When a covered item in your home breaks, just contact American Home Shield, and their trusted and qualified pros will fix or replace it based on the coverage limits in your agreement. So when it comes to protecting your appliances and home systems, don't worry. Be warrantied. And I really honestly don't know if warrantied is an actual word, but let's go with it. For 20% off plans, visit ahs.commike for more details. See ahs.comcontracts for coverage details, including limit amounts, fees, limitations, and exclusions. This episode is brought to you by Etsy. Oh, hear that? Okay, thank you. Etsy knows these aren't the sounds of holiday gifting. Well, not the ones you're hoping for. You want squeals of delight? Happy tears?

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[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I mean that certainly is possible. I think that the Kursk, the Ukrainian president presence in Kursk is. It's just a matter of time before the Ukrainians lose their foothold in Russia. The Russians are determined to take it back. I have a feeling that this isn't one that Putin will negotiate for. I think it's a matter of honor for Putin and for the Russians to retake that territory. So, you know, one of the arguments I'm hearing about for permitting the long range strike capabilities is to force the Russians to the table, right? To get them to negotiate a settlement. But the Ukrainians insist that the only settlement they'll accept is full Russian withdrawal. That's not going to happen.

[Bill Roggio]

It's. No, absolutely not.

[Mike Baker]

And then the argument is, well, Putin's not going to negotiate. He wants to take the whole of Ukraine or split Ukraine or he's not going to. So if you're not going to be able to get Putin to the table, how does launching missiles, which by the way may have the opposite effect of what you think. It may harden Putin and it may harden the Russian people to fight harder to dismantle a Ukrainian government. The fact is the Ukrainians are losing and I don't like this. You know, I keep making these arguments, Mike, because it sound. I'll get accused of being pro Putin for this, but we have to look at the reality on the ground. Ukraine is a country with a quarter population, probably more like a fifth at this point, given all the exodus of people from Ukraine. The fifth of the population of Russia does not have its own industrial capability. Russia is a nuclear armed country. It has a large economy with petroleum and other exports. It has a large manufacturing base. It makes its own weapons. These are all stacked against Ukraine. We could provide a limited number of weapon systems, even the long range strike systems that we send to the Ukrainians. There's only so many of them that we can send. So they're going to have limited capacity. This war was always stacked against Ukraine. Ukraine would have been wise to take whatever kind of deal it could and then revamped and rearmed for whatever future conflict may come. Thinking that we're going to drive the Russians to the table by allowing long range strike capabilities for a limited number of missiles and rockets is just, it's fantasy to me.

[Bill Roggio]

Well, I Think you've got, you've got two options, right? As with most decision trees, right. People overcomplicate major decisions because they imagine there's endless scenarios and there really typically are not. There's very few actual options. And in this case, granting permission for the long range munitions, you're either going to drive them to the table or you're going to get what you get. In this case, which is from his perception, further escalation. Right. Launching an IRBM and thinking, okay, well now, you know, what are you going to do? You're going to keep firing these ATACMs at me or the, you know, the Storm Shadows from the UK Their version, you know, so I think perhaps there's an issue here where they've misread Putin's motivations and agenda. Right. And there's so a lot of work that goes into profiling and understanding world leaders. And we've certainly had a long time to look at Putin. But I go back to again, this, this White House decision because it is fascinating and I agree with you. We do typically on the Situation Report, we don't talk politics. I don't like to do that. I like to focus on, you know, what's happening operationally overseas. But their policies seem to be at the White House for the duration of this war, up until just now to essentially give just enough, you know, to not allow Ukraine to have any opportunity for victory, but to basically hold the line, right? Maintain a status quo in what essentially turned into trench warfare from World War I. And then supposedly because of the incoming North Korean troops, now the dynamic has entirely changed. And the White House was very good about this. There's everybody's, everybody's memo said the same thing. When they went out and had to explain this to the press, they were all the same. Well, the dynamic of the North Koreans has changed the picture. And you're right, there is, there is a problem here that anytime you talk about a negotiated settlement that people say, well, you're just on Putin's side. No, no, you're trying to be pragmatic in a world where you don't want, you know, what you hope for is not your foreign policy. Right? Foreign policy shouldn't be built on the world that you'd like to see, right? It's the world that you have to deal with. So, you know, what I'm going to do right now, Bill, is I'm going to climb down off my soapbox and I'm going to go to break real quick. But if you could stay right where you are we're going to hear from a couple of our most excellent sponsors and then we'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. America, you might have heard about this. Just got finished with a historical election. Yeah, it was in the news, sure. Now there's going to be some change in the White House, but frankly, the fundamentals haven't changed. The dollar is still in decline with the US get this, adding $100,000 in debt every second. Oh, there goes another 100,000 and another look at. It's just building up, isn't it? Meanwhile, BRICS nations have introduced the unit. That's what they're calling a new global currency, pegged 40% to gold and 60% to BRICS currencies, which could mark the beginning of a global monetary reset. Now, what to do about it all? I'll tell you what to do. Call the proud Americans of the Patriot Gold Group today before it's too late. Mention PDB and you'll always get best in class service from Patriots Protecting patriots. Look, the Patriot Gold Group has the no fee for life IRA where your IRA or 401k can be in physical gold and silver and you may be eligible for the no fee for Life IRA on qualifying rollovers. Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. Now, Patriot Gold Group is consumer affairs top rated gold IRA dealer for seven years in a row and I'm here to tell you that's a lot of years in a row. Call 1-888-870-5457. Blinds.com is kicking off the savings early with Black Friday mega deals all month long. A blinds.com design expert can help you make the perfect selection on your schedule. We can even handle everything from measure to your whole home installed for just one low cost.

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Is the number one online retailer of custom window coverings. Get up to 45% off site wide and a free professional measure right [e-mail] rules and restrictions may apply. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is senior fellow at the foundation for the Defense of Democracies and editor of FDD's Long War Journal. And man about down Bill Roggio. Bill, what do you think? It seems to me that Zelensky has been essentially quietly admitting that some negotiated settlement is going to mean that he doesn't get Crimea back, that Crimea stays with with Putin. Are you seeing a softening in Zelensky's position? Because you mentioned earlier in our conversation that, you know, their position had been certainly from the outset, a victory just means we get all our land and territory back. And that would be the most satisfying thing ever, right, to justify all this loss of life and cost for to see Ukraine come back with Crimea and with the eastern part of the country. But it seems as if Zelensky himself is setting the table with his own population to say that that's probably not going to be how this ends up.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah. And Mike, before I address that, I wanted to address what you had mentioned, not understanding Putin. This is a problem I've witnessed in the entire war on terror. We didn't understand the Taliban, we didn't understand Al Qaeda, we didn't and don't understand Iran and its motivations. And I also think we don't understand Zelensky and what his motivations are when he says, and I believe it because he's under political pressure domestically from right wing groups from the, the, you know, let's face it there some of these are neo Nazi organizations that, that have military formations, formations like Azov. I mean, you know, look, you read the New York Times about this from up till, up until the Russian invasion, reporting about these right wing extremist groups. You know, how their, their power within Ukraine the best, you know, I don't think he's in a position to yield any land to the Russians. And yet the reality is from the Russian side, keep in mind they had next for oblasts or provinces in Russia and most of them are occupied by Russia, but not all of the territory by Russian law. Those are, that is now Russian territory to the Russians again, morally and legally. I don't think they have the Russians have a leg to stand on. But internally, this is how Putin and his followers remember he has pressure that comes from his right as well. And that's why I think you have this intractable situation where even if you could get Putin and Zelinsky or their people into a room, I think their goals, their outcomes for this are so wildly differing that I don't think you really can come to a solution that Zelensky can't afford to cede even just Crimea to the Russians because the, the right wing groups that have military power, there's actual military brigades. I see it all the time, you know, showing their Nazi symbolisms while training in France. Even these groups have said that they would not accept this outcome and have said that even some of even said they would kill Zelensky if that outcome came along. So he's handcuffed. You know, the best that he could hope for is to get all of the territory back. And then maybe the thing that he could seed would be Ukraine not agreeing to join NATO to be a, a neutral country. But for the Russians, I don't think that's enough.

[Bill Roggio]

But there's no, there's no, there's no, there's no way that, that Putin's going to give back Crimea. Right. That's.

[Mike Baker]

No, there's no way. That's the thing.

[Bill Roggio]

The Russians Black Sea fleet, given the.

[Mike Baker]

Cost that they've incurred, Mike. Right. In, in the number of soldiers, and there's wildly differing estimates on that. The military hardware, international pressure, they're going to want something out of this. And I think they're serious about annexing those four provinces and, you know, and keeping them. And. Yeah, I just don't see a political outcome. The best outcome, to me that's realistic, that Zelensky can hope for, is some type of ceasefire, a cessation of fighting, of freezing the line of contact as it is today. That's the best they could hope for. If they wait till tomorrow, they're going to lose more ground. If they wait till next week, they're going to lose a little bit more ground than if they wait till next month, they're going to lose a lot more ground.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah. Now, yeah, again, I take your point. I think you're. I think you're correct. Right. I've been saying this forever. And look, Crimea is an interesting spot because when they Annex Crimea, approximately 0 people outside of Ukraine cared. Right. I don't remember anybody on Twitter at the time posting little Ukrainian flags on their Twitter sites or putting little signs outside their yard saying, we stand with Ukraine, nobody gave a right. And he's had troops in eastern Ukraine for all these years. Same thing. So, again, and you always have to caveat this, right, because of the bizarre world we live in, you shouldn't have to state the obvious, but nobody is behind this idea that Putin deserves any of that territory. He doesn't. He's a despot. He's a dictator. This whole mess is his fault. He's responsible for it. But in foreign policy and dealing with the world as it is, not as you'd like it, sometimes you have to make very unpleasant decisions. And so the idea that this whole thing could end much with the line similar to where it started, which, frankly, they've taken more territory during the past that thousand days. So if they got back to the original lines in February 2022, that would mean that Russia would have to give back some of that turf. This whole, this whole problem is, I think your word, intractable. I think it makes sense. But the reality is that Zelensky has a manpower problem. Right? He's going to have a resource issue. If the Trump administration comes in and says, we're going to cut back and you're sorry, the EU is going to have to pick up the slack. Putin's got his own issues, as you pointed out. But at some point, the only way this ends is at a negotiating table. So I think people have to set aside their hopes and dreams and wishful thinking and say we have to deal with the world the way it is and what's the best way to get to that point? Right, because if we keep escalating it the way it's going, I mean, Zelensky says, well, look, Putin is a paper tiger, right? Don't pay attention to his red lines. We showed that by our incursion into Kursk. I don't know if NATO, I don't know if the EU is fully on board with the idea that this turns into a full blown shooting match with the Russian military.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I agree. And part of the problem with all of this, how did the rhetoric start out from the Euro countries and from the US we have to overthrow Putin. We need. Russia needs to be handed a military defeat. You know, again, I think this harder than the Russians in some cases. But, you know, the irony is, if all of those things were true, if Putin had to go, if, you know, the Russians needed to be dealt with a defeat, if the Russians are a direct threat to Europe, then why aren't the European countries and the United States acting like it's. Instead of sending, you know, warehoused weapons and limited number of weapon systems, as you mentioned, just enough for Ukraine to not lose. Although I'd argue it's just enough for them to not lose quickly. They're losing slowly.

[Bill Roggio]

Right?

[Mike Baker]

You know, where is the uptick in defense spending in manufacturing? We still can't manufacture, I would argue probably somewhere around a tenth of the artillery shells of what Russia is manufacturing. And this is a war where artillery is the king of battle. It always has been. And it especially has been in this war. We act one way, but, you know, we say one thing, but we act another. And then, you know, the Russians see this and they don't take us seriously. So we have to become realists about how this war is going to end. Hopefully the Trump administration is able to do this. I mean, we certainly will. See, he said that he'll cut a deal in a Day, I think that's Trump hyperbole means we'll cut a deal quickly. I'm not sure if that's even.

[Bill Roggio]

Phil, I just want to take a note on this just to make sure I understand your position. So you think when President elect Trump says he's going to stop the war in a day, you think that's hyperbole. Okay, I'm just, I know that was.

[Mike Baker]

Such a controversial statement.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah. So thank you for that. Yeah. No, I. Look, it is fascinating when, and it's all speculation, which probably isn't worth taking up your time with, but if you look at President elect Trump coming in and we know his somewhat, his disdainful attitude towards NATO, although I think it's. Again, I think if you take everything that Trump says at face value, I think you're playing a losing game. Right. Because you know, he'll throw stuff out there. And that's been the problem. The media and the Democrats tend to take everything he says literally. They go, no, he really means it. And they don't understand the mindset of a Tri State property developer. Right. They've never, apparently they've never dealt with one. Right. Who, who, you know, grew up in the New York Tri State area punching people in the nose and then getting punched back, you know, developing properties. And so they assume every time he says something that, oh, that's exactly what he means. Right. And instead of just, you know, I'm just throwing some stuff on the wall, maybe I'm spitballing some ideas, you know, maybe I'm saying things because I think it might be a good bargaining tactic to get what I want. So I'm not sure how far I carry that idea that he's going to somehow abandon Naito. Right. I think he, he wants what a lot of people want, which is them to, to, to, you know, pay their fair share, etc. Etc. By the way, we should probably.

[Mike Baker]

And he was right about that. He was right about NATO. Not during the loan. And his statements were taken, in my estimation. Look, is it wise for a president to say it that way? Sure, we could have that debate. I don't particularly like his style, but I understood where he was coming from. He was arguing for NATO to pick up its share of the load. And I'm certain he's watching this Ukraine conflict and sitting there going, I was right. And he was right again. If this is an existential war, particularly for Europe, for Western, Eastern Europe, Europe, why aren't they treating it as such?

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah. Okay, last question. And then we're gonna have to go. Unfortunately, it just, it could be just a yes or no. We're going to get a settlement of some sort, whether it's a ceasefire, a negotiated settlement. Do you think we'll have it by the end of the first quarter of 2025?

[Mike Baker]

That's a great question. I think there might be some type of ceasefire, and I think we might be able to see it by within the first half of the year, for the half a year of his term. I think it's just incoming president has a lot to do, and the war in Ukraine is just going to be one of a multitude of things that are a priority for him. So there's a lot of legwork to be done to get the staff in place. I don't think it's going to be something that the Ukrainians or those with the Ukraine flags in their Twitter handles are going to like. But I do think he may be able to achieve some type of ceasefire of freezing the lines. I think the Russians may accept that, but if that's the case, and if that's what the Russians are perceiving, they may accelerate their military operations to gobble up more ground, as much ground as they can, in expectation of that ceasefire.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah, I think that's exactly right, Bill. I think that's what we're going to see potentially, maybe even sort of a DMZ on the eastern side somewhere in that. In that line of demarcation, perhaps, whatever that is, at the point where they come to terms with some type of settlement or ceasefire. Bill Rogio, look, it's always delightful, and I don't use that word very often, but it is delightful. Senior fellow at the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. I hope you come back next time we call. And, you know, we keep talking because I'm guessing that this problem is not going away anytime soon.

[Mike Baker]

No, it's not. Mike, always a pleasure. Just give me a call whenever you need me, all right.

[Bill Roggio]

Coming up next, sanctuary cities push back against the incoming Trump administration's plans for mass deportations. Well, that's completely expected. Setting the stage for a potential major border showdown. Jessica Vaughn from the center for Immigration Studies joins us to discuss the obstacles facing the new administration. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. If you're tired of the same old coffee, and I know you are, from those mega corporations that push their woke agendas and you know which ones I'm talking about. Well, listen up. It's time to take a stand and support a brand that truly embodies American values. And of course, Here. I'm talking about Blackout Coffee. They stand with hardworking Americans who believe in family, faith and freedom. And they roast some of the most incredible coffee that you'll ever taste using only premium grade beans roasted and shipped to you within 48 hours. Think about the speed on that, right? The beans are sitting in the roaster and the next thing you know they're in your mug. For the cold brew fans, Blackout Coffee is now also excited to announce the launch of their two new ready to drink cold brew coffee latte options. Look, don't settle for less. Make the switch to Blackout coffee, head on over to blackout coffee.com PDB and use the code PDB for 20% off your first order. That's blackout coffee.com PDB and the code again is PDB. Join the movement and taste the difference. Remember, with every sip you're supporting a brand that stands for America. And as we say around these parts, be awake, not woke. This is an ad by BetterHelp. What comes to mind when you hear the word gratitude?

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[Bill Roggio]

To the PDB Situation Report. Now Texas officials are offering President elect Donald Trump 1,400 acres of land along the US Mexico border, proposing its use as a site for detention facilities. According to the Texas General Land Office, this land could serve as a hub for, quote, processing, detention and coordination in what they describe as the largest deportation effort in U.S. history. Now, the offer signals Texas readiness to work with the incoming administration to tighten border security and ramp up enforcement measures. But as you might imagine, questions remain about the feasibility of such a large scale operation and the legal, logistical and political hurdles that lie ahead, including leaders in sanctuary cities who are signaling. Oh, they, they do signal a lot, don't they, that they will not be cooperating with federal efforts. Joining us now to examine these challenges is Jessica Vaughan. She's the director of policy studies at the center for Immigration Studies. Jessica, thanks very much for taking the time to join us here on THE SITUATION report.

[Jessica Vaughan]

Glad to be with you.

[Bill Roggio]

There's so many things to talk about here. Mass deportation. I'm not sure that's really the way they should have labeled this. I don't know that that's the narrative that's, that's going to make this happen as effectively and efficiently as possible. How do you see this playing out?

[Jessica Vaughan]

Well, I think the term mass deportations might be useful from a messaging standpoint, but what this really seems to mean is a significant boost in immigration enforcement, not only at the border but also in the interior. That's going to end the catch and release policies that are drawing so many illegal border crossers here, but also a return to enforcing the law within the country so that people who've been arrested for state and local crimes, people who've already had their very generous due process and been ordered removed by an immigration judge but haven't left yet, they're going to be a target. People who've been deported before, if they start up work site raids, people who get caught up in that, anyone here illegally is potentially subject to deportation, although of course they're going to prioritize the most dangerous people first.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah, I think that, I guess that's my top line thought on this is, I mean, I take your point, I think from a political perspective, certainly in the run up to the election, I see why they were going with mass deportation. It was playing well, I guess from a political messaging perspective. But now you have to implement it right. And to do that, you'd like to do it with as little pushback as possible. Right. From the Democrats, from the media. It's always going to be there. You're always going to get that opposition. But I think if the messaging had really been focused on exactly what you just said, I mean, really driving it home, that look, we're not talking about sending back 11 million people. We're talking about exactly the groups that you said, the criminals, those who have already made their way through the deportation process and just for whatever reason remain in the country still, if they, if they would focus on that. But I think what they're setting themselves up for is probably two to three to maybe four years of this constant battle against the media narrative and the Democrat narrative, which is that you're splitting up families, you're, you know, sending home all these valuable workers. And I think that Trump, incoming Trump administration perhaps could have been a little bit more focused with that messaging.

[Jessica Vaughan]

A lot of this, again, is rhetoric for the purposes of the campaign. But you're right, there is going to be a constant pushback, a constant narrative about how cruel and heartless this policy is. And so I hope that the Trump administration will emphasize the importance of this for Americans, that this is going to create job opportunities for Americans. This is going to make our communities safer by removing gang members and drug traffickers and other people who are committing crimes. But we also need to remember that what I found through my research is that it only takes a modest increase in enforcement before people start following the law on their own. Employers realize that they could be shut down with a raid if they're hiring illegal workers, so they start doing their due diligence. Illegal aliens who are sort of your regular people who came here for the opportunity of the catch and release program but get their work permits rescinded, are going to say, you know, I've had a good run here. I've saved some money. I don't want to be arrested. I don't want to be separated from my family, so it's time to start planning my return home. And, you know, we find that just as many people leave on their own as actually get physically removed by ice, and that's really the humane way to do it. I don't want to see ICE having to go, like, go door to door picking up grandmothers on their way to church. That's not the kind of enforcement that's going to happen. But Americans really want to see our laws enforced and have confidence in that we can have a robust legal immigration program where, you know, more people are coming legally than illegally and hopefully not many at all coming illegally. And that's. It will take time to get to that, but it's not going to require, you know, Gestapo tactics to get it done. It will happen over time, and people will start complying with the law on their own.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah, I think your point is really well done, and I think it needs to be amplified as often as possible, which is it doesn't take much in terms of the additional enforcement procedures to realize a much more significant change in behavior. Right. Or an attitude. So I think that's a great bit of messaging that needs to be thrown out there. I think that the problem is never underestimate. Look, this is galvanized. The Democrats, the Democrats were demoralized after this election and they were standing around wondering who they are and what they stand for. And this idea is really galvanizing them again. And we're seeing that in terms of what the sanctuary cities are doing and what they're saying. We're not going to support any of this effort. In fact, we're going to do everything it takes to stand against it. And again, of all Colorado talking about how the mothers and Highlands are going to stand in some Tiananmen type wall against law enforcement from federal agencies, it gets bizarre, but it takes up all the oxygen. And they tend to be very good at sticking with a message and driving that narrative. So again, I think that, but that's.

[Jessica Vaughan]

Where the Trump administration needs to hit back and say, look, we're going after gang members, we're going after employers who are completely abusing these trafficked workers. You know, we're going after drug dealers. And if they can keep on message with that and on task with that, then I think they're going to maintain public support.

[Bill Roggio]

Well, hopefully it's a new day because I would argue in the past, anyway, I hope it has, it will change. I hope with the incoming administration. They've got four years under their belt, they understand how Washington works. But typically, I think the Republicans tend to not do as well at sticking the message or at managing a narrative as the Democrats do. Right. The Democrats tend to be a little bit more, there's more histrionics, of course, but I think in general terms, look, it's understandable why when you're throwing out the term mass deportation and you're throwing out numbers like 11 million people, you know, are you talking about now in this case, you know, we're going to build, they're talking about it, building detention facilities along the border down in Texas. That's not a, that's not necessarily a good look, you know, when you talk about detention camps, you know, it kind of takes everyone's minds back to, you know, the World War II and the Japanese Americans and what they went through. So I think the, I think the administration needs the incoming administration. They don't have much time. They got, you know, if they want to get a grip on this, I think in a meaningful way, to your point, they've got to drive home that message.

[Jessica Vaughan]

And, you know, any so called detention camps or, you know, like temporary detention facilities, I think really the intent for that is to be at the border so that they can stop catching and releasing people. Instead, they can keep them in custody near the border and return them quickly. I don't think they contemplate that kind of situation within the interior of the country. I. I'm not sure the public really would support that. I. They want the laws enforced, but they want it done in a humane way. Not, you know, not in a. Some. In a way that seems cruel. You know, I don't think we're going to see, you know, county jails full of high school kids or something like that. That just wouldn't make sense.

[Bill Roggio]

Yes, no, I agree with you 100% there. But if we're talking about targeting the criminal element and others who, you know, have already gone through that process and are slated to be deported, then fine. Refer to it as a criminal detention facility, you know, a temporary criminal detention facility, or whatever you have to do to ensure that people don't, you know, then run wild with their imagination as, oh, my God, we're, you know, we're detaining 11 million people. I just. I do worry about this because a lot of times that perception can then drive the effectiveness of potential policy. Right. And it takes the wind out of your sails, but it's worth the fight. Right. We're talking about national security now. At the same time, as we're looking to round up the criminal element again, there also have to be other steps taken. And I want to talk to you about, you know, how successful you think the incoming administration may be in things just as simple as the ability to vet people coming across the border in the future. Right. Because, you know, talking to CBP folks, there's almost no vetting that they're able to do at this point. Right. It's not as if someone comes in, in the San Diego sector from China and somehow we can run a database and go, oh, we understand who this person is. We have no idea. And then they're just released into the country.

[Jessica Vaughan]

People need to understand that it's almost impossible to vet anyone who's just coming across the border illegally. We have to take them at their word for their identity and their behavior in wherever they were living before. And that's why we have to have a legal process where people are vetted at embassies abroad when they apply for a visa and then have their identity verified again when they arrive at a legal port of entry. You know, we cannot continue to just allow people to show up on our doorstep at the land border and, you know, spend an hour, you know, asking them questions and then just releasing them to an NGO to go on to their final destination and expect that, you know, we're going to keep a good handle on who's coming in, that just doesn't work. And I do think that our government can do reasonable vetting of people when given time and using a visa process and getting the cooperation of other countries. And that was the basis for this so called travel ban that Trump put into place at the beginning of his first term. The whole idea behind that was not a Muslim ban, but instead a ban on travelers who are coming from countries where we are not able to get good information about whether that person is a threat. And if we cannot do that, then we shouldn't be letting anyone in from those countries unless we can have confidence in our information sharing and our ability to understand who that person is and to verify their purposes for travel. So, you know, and, and this whole vetting process that was started with the first so called travel ban, a lot of that was actually preserved by the Biden administration and not scrapped. So, you know, that will not be hard to get going again. And I think there's a good case for the whole process to be sort of upgraded and potentially look at slowing down admissions from even more countries than were on that first list.

[Bill Roggio]

To your point about the travel ban, again with messaging that just became known as the Muslim ban and it's still to this day, the Democrats, that's how they refer to it. And people, they're busy, right? And they don't sit and analyze or they don't think about it and they don't hear what you've just said because it's not like on their front burner. And so they just go with, yeah, it was a Muslim ban and that created a lot of chaos and pushback. Look, if you don't know who's coming across your border, you don't have national security. And so therefore, if they just stuck with these basic, simple messages. There are a lot of Democrats who legitimately are somewhat moderate and understand that. And if you just kept hammering that point as well as some of the other things you're talking about. But right now, if I could, I'm going to ask you if you could just stay with us just for a moment. We got a very quick break and then we'll be right back to the Situation report. Hey, Eric Bolling here, inviting you to check out my new podcast, Bowling, where we deliver a daily dose of uncensored, un unfiltered truth. My new show is based on the bedrock of democracy, free speech every day. I promise to expose those who misinform, edit and push outright lies for their own agenda. On Bowling. The truth is always our top priority. So don't wait, listen and subscribe to Bowling Right now, wherever you get your favorite podcasts. Welcome back to the PDB Situation report. Joining me once again is Jessica Vaughan of the center for Immigration Studies. Jessica, lots of questions and but with limited time, let me throw this one at you. We're talking about rounding up criminal elements, right? That's, you know, the initial focus of any deportation action for the incoming administration. Right. Focus on those criminals who are in the country illegally. And, you know, you would think reasonable people on both sides of the political spectrum could say, okay, well, that, fine, that makes sense. But here's a question. If you talk, you're talking about a Venezuelan, a TDA member, or you're talking about someone from China who's committed a crime, talking about someone from Haiti. I'm not picking on these countries. I'm bringing them up for a particular reason. They're not going to take those people back. We don't have the relationship in the case of Haiti, they don't have the infrastructure. They're in chaos. The Chinese regime is certainly not going to cooperate with the incoming administration on deportation issues. That's, I think, a bridge too far for them. So what happens? What's the technical process for individuals who should be in that first round of deportation, but where do they go?

[Jessica Vaughan]

Yeah, that's a really good question. And this is an issue that's going to be a problem, especially initially each one of these countries, and we call them recalcitrant countries, the countries that won't take their citizens back for deportation. And a lot of times it's criminals that we're talking about. It's going to take an individual approach for each country. There's a role for diplomacy. There's a role for carrots and sticks. With the case of Venezuela, we have no relationship with Venezuela right now. But we need to remember also that a lot of the Venezuelans who came here and took advantage of the catch and release policies at the border were living in other countries before they came here. They were firmly settled with jobs and permission to stay in these countries. And I think we are going to have to try to work with some of those countries to take them back. Maybe not in the case of gang members like TDA or hardened criminals, but other people who were doing fine in Chile or Peru or Argentina and now are going to lose their work permit with the Criminals. It's going to take a tougher approach with Venezuela, but there's a tool in the law that allows our government, through the State Department to impose a visa band on countries or groups of people within countries as a sanction to try to get them to, you know, to relent in their stance of not taking someone back. So you could go to a country like Venezuela or China and say, look, we're not going to issue visas to your diplomats, or we're not going to issue visas to your kids of government officials who want to come to school in the United States or to the wives of government officials who want to go visit Vegas or these people who want to go to Disney World. Those visas simply are going to be cut off until you start living up to your international responsibilities and take your citizens back. And this has been successful times in the past. When it has been applied again, it depends on the country. A country like Haiti, that's a tough situation. We may have to work with third countries on the Haitians, but there are tools that we have at our disposal. Maybe we use carrots instead of sticks, offer aid, offer some other something that those countries want. But we do have leverage and tools available to us. The problem is they've never been used by the federal. I shouldn't say never. They were never used under Biden, but they haven't been used as much as we should be using them to lean on these countries. So we just, you know, they can't just dump all of their criminals and dissidents and everything else on our doorstep.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah, it's. I mean, I think just listening to that, it makes sense. I understand what you're saying. It's the complexity of it. And it tends to. Things like this tend to happen in sound bites, right? Everybody. And again, everybody just busy. You're trying to put food on the table. You got a million things going on. And so, you know, most people here is sort of a top line issue, a headline, right? We're going to do this and, you know, but when you start, start really examining it and you understand the complexity of it, Right? That's why I think it's important for whoever's running communications for the incoming administration to make sure they understand the importance of messaging this as they go along. We can't just see saying, okay, we're sending everybody home. Right?

[Jessica Vaughan]

The groundwork has to be laid through a public relations campaign for how this is going to be messaged and make sure people understand why it needs to happen.

[Bill Roggio]

And that will also. I think that will also help in terms of slowing, you know, or changing behavior of folks who may be thinking, yeah, I'm going, I'm just going to cross the border. Right. Because the more they see this, right. And the more they understand it, you know that to your point earlier in the conversation. Right. Just a little bit of messaging could have a really consequential change on behavior, on attitude, and that could include the numbers that we see coming across the border. Obviously, that's an element of enforcement and adjusting things. But I think we don't want to underestimate that. I don't want to keep beating that dead horse. But let's talk about if we could, in the time that we've got, sanctuary cities, what do you make of sort of this? Over the past week in particular, there's been a rush to the microphone from, from Democrat leaders of sanctuary cities around the country, talking about how they'll do everything in their power to not help or to hinder as a matter. So what do you make of this?

[Jessica Vaughan]

Well, this also could be a big problem for the Trump administration because as we saw in the first Trump term, the sanctuary jurisdictions became very, very recalcitrant and obstructive and, you know, painted this narrative of an overzealous immigration enforcement. And so they started passing laws that forbid local law enforcement agencies to cooperate with ice. And what that does is it necessarily means that the criminals that ICE is trying to get for removal are going to be released back to the streets and they end up committing more crimes. There's a couple ways to address it. I think one way is what has been tried, and that is to, since most of these sanctuary policies are in place for political reasons, they're not going to change. They think they get a benefit from that, even though it's a problem for public safety. So what you have to do is either start withholding certain federal funds from these jurisdictions that don't cooperate, certain law, federal law enforcement grant programs. You just have to say, look, if you're going to block our federal agents from getting custody of criminal aliens directly from the jails, then you know, you're just not going to have access to grants for certain law enforcement agencies in your state or in your city. And that did work to change certain jurisdictions, like for example, Miami Dade county in Florida said, well, we don't want to lose that money. So we're going to start cooperating with ICE again. So there will be some that come around like that. With others, you may have to file lawsuits. I think in other places, again, a public relations campaign on the part of ICE by saying, look, you know, this week the New York City Police Department released these criminals who we were trying to deport. And if they commit a crime now, you know why? It's because your own police department released them. And I think that kind of public attention to what's really going on could work really well for ice. Another thing Congress could do is give a private right of action for victims of these crimes, if they're serious, to potentially hold the local sanctuary government liable for any problems that are caused when they deliberately release somebody that ICE was trying to take into custody for removal. That's the kind of thing that really gets their attention.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah, I think you're right. That's actually a pretty clever way of looking at it. I can see whether it could be all sorts of bureaucratic problems. We're trying to implement that. But, but it is astounding if you just step back and think, why would a leadership of a major US City object to removing illegal migrants who have criminal records from their streets? It is again part of its self righteous virtue, signaling. They're trying to say, look at us. Because they never make these announcements quietly. It's always with a lot of fuss, you know, so they can be seen, you know, oh, look at us, look how special we are. And then, and then the people of that city, like if we just take New York, right, and we say, you know, the average New York, you know, resident understands that they, you know, they've got a criminal problem, right, They've got a crime problem. Everybody kind of looks over their shoulder a little bit at nighttime, particularly when you're walking around. And it's not a lot of people that are excited to go down to the subways right now. And so you would think that public security, law and order would be an issue that, you know, everybody, Democrat, Republican get their heads around. And yet then they continue to vote the same way that they, they vote and you know, nothing changes. So I mean, if you, if you look at the potential for obstruction on a project like this, and I know that Tom Holman, the incoming, assuming he's approved, the incoming border czar, he said, look, we're going to do this with you or without you, speaking to the leaders of these various sanctuary cities. But how practical is that? I mean, does the federal government, do they have the resources and ability to make an impact without the support of local police departments, without the NYPD or the police force in Denver, Colorado?

[Jessica Vaughan]

Well, there's no question it's going to make it much, much harder without the support of local law enforcement agencies. You know, so it, you know, if ICE has to start taking to the streets to arrest people in public at their dwelling or, you know, in other situations that's really visible to the public, it's dangerous, first of all, for ICE and for bystanders. But that's exactly the kind of operation that's going to generate a lot of public backlash. So it would be better if they don't have to do that, you know, another thing they could do. So a lot of these sanctuary policies are in place for political reasons. But there's also an argument that's made that if local police have to cooperate with ice, then immigrants in the community are not going to trust them, are not going to come forward to report crimes. And I've actually learned from studying the Department of Justice data on victimizations that that's not true, that actually immigrants, even illegal immigrants, report crimes just as much, just as frequently as Americans do. But I think if there were could be some outreach to immigrant communities to explain what ICE's priorities are and how they're going to operate and who they're looking for and why they need the cooperation, that itself could actually help restore some of that trust or at least provide another way to get that trust in immigrant communities. To avoid these kinds of fear campaigns that the sanctuary jurisdictions try to use to discredit ice, they should be working with immigrant communities, with leaders and with local law enforcement agencies to find ways that immigrants can access public safety services without, you know, being worried that something's going to come back to haunt them. I mean, there's, you know, there's so many good community oriented policing programs around this country that we can turn to that these sanctuary policies really have no basis or no justification in reality.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah, I'd say it's, you can almost argue it's a little bit racist on the part of sanctuary city leaders to imply somehow that illegal migrants aren't also concerned about law and order, aren't also concerned about public safety, because frankly, I think they'd be just as happy as everyone else to see the criminal elements deported. Right. I mean, it impacts their safety, impacts the safety of their children. And again, you know, it's, I'm not saying that that's going to be the case. I don't think they're going to change their stripes in terms of these sanctuary cities. So I think there is a fight coming up in the near future as they start to implement this process. Listen, this has been a fascinating conversation. I found it fascinating. I know The Situation Report viewers find it fascinating. I hope you found it interesting. But I also hope that you'll come back next time we pick up the phone and give you a call, because what I'd love to do is sometime after, shortly after the inauguration, because I think they're going to move on this pretty quick once we start seeing some of their actions from within the White House and Tom Holman and others. It'd be great to sit back down with you, Jessica, and talk about where we stand at that point.

[Jessica Vaughan]

That would be my pleasure. I've enjoyed our talk.

[Bill Roggio]

Well, that's all the time we have for the PDB Situation Report. Now, if you have any questions or comments that you'd like me to address on the air, reach out to [e-mail] now don't forget, right. Every month we put together what we call our Ask Me Anything episodes. And the way we do that is every couple of days, Carl the mailman, well, he stops by the secret compound of the PDB and he drops off another mail bag, stuff full of your questions and your comments and your postcards. And then our crack team of interns, well, what they do is they sift through all of those, they pick the most interesting questions, and they smoosh them together into our monthly Ask Me Anything episode. So please, I'm serious about this. Keep your questions and your comments coming to listen to the podcast of the show ad free. Well, it's simple. Become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by simply visiting pdbpremium.com I told you it was very simple. I'm Mike Baker, and until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.