The President's Daily Brief – Situation Report | November 29, 2025

Podcast: The President's Daily Brief
Host: Mike Baker (former CIA Operations Officer)
Guests:

• Ryan McBeth (Open Source Intelligence Analyst)
• Mariam Waba (Research Analyst, Foundation for Defense of Democracies)

Overview

This episode delivers an in-depth "Situation Report" on two of the most impactful foreign policy stories of the week: the evolving Ukraine peace negotiations, dissected with intelligence expert Ryan McBeth, and an impending U.S. government move to designate the Muslim Brotherhood a foreign terrorist organization, analyzed with Mariam Waba. The discussions explore diplomatic complexity, battlefield realities, policy shifts, and the strategic implications for the U.S. and its allies.

Ukraine Peace Talks: Status & Strategy

[01:12 – 15:54, 16:23 – 29:14]

Diplomatic Developments

• The U.S. has dramatically slimmed down its proposed Ukraine peace plan from 28 to 19 points, covering major topics like security guarantees, military limits, and the process to restore Ukrainian sovereignty.
• After several days of talks in Geneva with Ukrainian and European representatives, U.S. envoys moved to Abu Dhabi for rare, direct discussions with Russian officials.
• The intent: to gauge Russia's willingness to engage on the 19-point framework.

Key Quote

"[The plan] started as a 28 point plan and then was narrowed to 19 core provisions… testing whether Moscow is willing to engage on any of those 19 points."
— Mike Baker [01:38]

Ukrainian and Russian Perspectives

• Ukraine has rejected the current framework.

  • Zelensky faces the challenge of selling any peace plan to the Ukrainian public, especially provisions like enshrining non-NATO status in the constitution.
  • Rumors suggest parts of the plan may have originated with Russia, further complicating acceptance.
  • "As of now, it certainly seems like this particular plan is dead in the water. Although you could consider it a starting point."
    — Ryan McBeth [03:44]

• Plan Critique:

  • U.S. messaging has oscillated between pressure on Russia (new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil) and surprisingly accommodating proposals, leading to confusion about strategic intent.

Quote

"It does seem heavily weighted in favor of the Kremlin..."
— Mike Baker [04:40]

The Rationale: Limiting Russian Collapse

• The U.S. is wary of destabilizing Russia so severely that it might fragment into nuclear-armed fiefdoms, especially with potential simultaneous conflict over Taiwan.

  • "We need to make sure that Russia has a soft landing. Might sound crazy to Ukrainians... but we did this in Germany after WWI, and that led directly to WWII."
    — Ryan McBeth [06:17]

• Domestic politics, especially energy markets and voter pain at the gas pump, constrain Washington's willingness to cripple Russian energy exports.

  • "Nobody wants a pissed off voter going to the pump and saying, God damn it, why are the prices increasing?"
    — Mike Baker [08:24]

The Battlefield: Attrition and Innovation

• Frontlines are largely static; Russia inches forward with incremental gains such as the capture of Petrovsk (rail hub).
  • "This slow Russian incremental gain took about a year to execute. That tells you where the Russian army is."
    — Ryan McBeth [11:15]
• Both sides are suffering, particularly from nightly Russian missile and drone strikes hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Drone Warfare

• Russia pioneers using drones to "deny ground," a new method where drones are hidden and activated via fiber optics for ambushes – a tactic unprecedented in military history.
  • "They actually did something that nobody's ever really done in the history of warfare: use drones to actually hold ground or at least deny ground."
    — Ryan McBeth [12:49]

Memorable Moment

"You don't want a warlord to have a nuclear weapon."
— Mike Baker [07:52]

China’s Role

• No direct evidence places Chinese PLA officers in Russia or Ukraine, but it's plausible they're present as observers to learn from Russia's conduct and technological adaptation in modern warfare.
  • "It would not be surprising if Chinese observers are there with Russian officers embedded learning how they fight."
    — Ryan McBeth [18:07]

Notable Quote/Humor

"If you have to go to a Christmas party, why not wear a NORAD shirt?"
— Ryan McBeth [03:08]

U.S. Arms Sales: F-35s to Saudi Arabia

[19:55 – 24:41]

• President Trump has greenlit a proposed sale of 24–28 F-35 stealth jets to Saudi Arabia.
  • Sale requires significant vetting, pilot training, and will take years before delivery due to queue and model selection.

Strategic Implications

• Would elevate Saudi air warfare capabilities to near-parity with Israel’s, creating new strategic challenges for Iran by providing multiple vectors for potential air strikes.
  • "If we give the Saudis that capability... Iran knows they need to cut their shenanigans off."
    — Ryan McBeth [21:08]

Risks

• Technology leakage is a concern, as Saudi pilots and contractors include foreigners (notably from Pakistan, with ties to China).
• Israeli unease: concern over theoretically hostile parties getting comparable technology.
  • "I can imagine Israel isn't totally crazy about this deal."
    — Ryan McBeth [21:56]
• Despite security protocols, tech proliferation is difficult to fully control.

Venezuela: Trouble on the Horizon

[25:00 – 26:54]

• A possible military action or a political crisis is expected in Venezuela within ten days, according to rumors and signs such as leave cancellations for Venezuelan personnel and indirect warnings from U.S. Senators.

  • "The rumor mill is saying that a lot of leave was canceled for after Thanksgiving. They don't tend to do that without good reason."
    — Ryan McBeth [25:34]

• There may also be regime-change discussions (Maduro potentially willing to negotiate an exit).

Lighter Moment

Show-and-Tell (Decor Background):

• Ryan shares that his most prized background item is a Turkish flag and patch, gifted by Turkish general staff in recognition of his YouTube work.
  • "Turkey has been a vital member of NATO... it’s one of the proudest things."
    — Ryan McBeth [27:59]

U.S. Policy Shift: Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization

[31:56 – 58:23]

Context and Origins

• President Trump orders a process to potentially designate the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” (FTO):
  • Reflects long-standing intelligence and counterterrorism worries about the Brotherhood’s ideological and operational links to violence (notably, Hamas).
• Executive Order covers investigation into the Egyptian, Jordanian, and Lebanese MB branches to see if they meet FTO criteria.

Key Fact

"The EO doesn't actually do much except order the State Department and the Treasury Department to look into if those three branches... meet the criteria for designation."
— Mariam Waba [44:56]

What is the Muslim Brotherhood?

• Founded in Egypt (1928) by Hassan al-Banna, initially a cultural/political movement responding to the Ottoman collapse and British colonial presence.
  • Became adept at providing social services (education, health care, welfare) where Arab states failed, boosting popularity and electoral appeal.

Notable Quote

"The Muslim Brotherhood is smart enough and has gone through many cycles of repression and resurgence... they can wait this out."
— Mariam Waba [38:38]

• Organization has diversified: some violent offshoots (e.g., Hamas), others legitimate political parties (e.g., in Morocco).

Organizational Complexity

• The Brotherhood is best seen as a network of loosely connected or adapted ideologically-aligned branches; not a strict corporation with a top-down hierarchy.

  • "Is there a clear leadership structure and org chart? We don't believe that is the case."
    — Mariam Waba [50:56]

• This adaptation presents significant legal hurdles for FTO designation.

Brotherhood Presence & Media Influence in the West

• MB or its sympathizers have built media empires in exile, particularly in Europe but possibly in the U.S. (often under different branding).
  • Example: MC (“We Will Continue”) satellite channel, banned in Turkey, then quickly relaunched from London thanks to western freedom-of-speech protections.
  • "When it knows it can't exist somewhere, it transforms, it reinvents itself so it can exist elsewhere."
    — Mariam Waba [48:52]

International Stance

• Egypt, Jordan, UAE, and most Gulf States have banned the Brotherhood; the U.S. has typically hesitated due to organizational ambiguity and lobbying.
• Past U.S. administrations faced pressure from regional allies but struggled to enact designation due to legal and evidentiary hurdles.

What’s Next?

• The EO initiates a 45-day review; final designation is possible but not guaranteed.
  • Evidence thresholds are high; even ideologically sympathetic branches may not meet violent FTO criteria.
  • If designated, it would "trigger sanctions, restrict fundraising, and reshape how Washington deals with governments that tolerate Brotherhood-linked factions."
    — Mike Baker [31:56]

Analyst’s Outlook

• Likely the Egyptian, Jordanian, and Lebanese branches will be designated, due to clear links to violence.
• This would increase pressure on allies to act consistently and could impact regional relationships, especially regarding Hamas and its sponsors (Qatar, Turkey).

Broader Geo-strategic Reflections

Gaza and Hamas' Future

• Unless Washington strongly pressures Arab allies (e.g. Qatar, Turkey, Egypt), Hamas’ operational capacity in Gaza is unlikely to be diminished in the near term.
  • "We need to get serious about who our allies are. If they're not behaving like the allies we call them... should they be a US Ally?"
    — Mariam Waba [56:54]

U.S. Middle East Positioning

• Policy choices regarding both the Ukraine conflict and the Muslim Brotherhood are being watched closely by adversaries and allies alike, influencing broader perceptions of U.S. resolve, priorities, and alliance management.

Selected Notable Quotes

• "You don't want a warlord to have a nuclear weapon." — Mike Baker [07:52]
• "The Muslim Brotherhood... is a transnational Islamist organization... Some are violent actors, a prime example is Hamas." — Mariam Waba [33:05]
• "If we give the Saudis that capability as well, you have Israel possibly attacking from the east... Saudis from the south... more possible vectors for attack." — Ryan McBeth [21:28]
• "When [the Brotherhood] knows it can't exist somewhere, it transforms, it reinvents itself so it can exist elsewhere." — Mariam Waba [48:52]
• "We need to make sure that Russia has a soft landing." — Ryan McBeth [06:17]

Episode Timeline (Key Segments)

• 01:12: Ukraine Peace Talks—Geneva, U.S. Plan Explained
• 03:44: Zelensky’s Dilemma, Plan's Origins, Ukrainian Rejection
• 06:17: U.S. Geostrategic Rationale – Avoiding Russian Collapse
• 11:15: Battlefield Update – Attrition, Drones, Energy Strikes
• 16:23: PLA in Ukraine/Russia (Intelligence Assessment)
• 19:55: F-35 Sale to Saudi Arabia – Regional Implications
• 25:00: Venezuela – Imminent Turmoil?
• 27:59: Personal Note: Turkish Gift, NORAD Sweater Humor
• 31:56: Muslim Brotherhood – U.S. Review Process Begins
• 33:05: MB's Origins and Social Influence
• 38:38: Ideology, Branches, and Adaptation
• 44:56: What the Executive Order Does/Doesn't Do
• 50:56: Network Structure & Legal Complications
• 56:07: Gaza, Hamas, and U.S. Leverage Moving Forward

Tone and Style

The episode was characterized by:

• A brisk, sharp, and occasionally sardonic delivery, especially from host Mike Baker.
• Informal exchanges, with moments of levity (NORAD sweaters, Predator movie references).
• Deep background and context from both expert guests.
• Direct, accessible language meant to cut through official and media jargon.

Summary

This episode equips listeners to understand the real dynamics behind headline events in Ukraine and the Middle East. Through expert interviews, it reveals the complexity of diplomatic negotiations, battlefield innovation, U.S. domestic and international constraints, and why policy decisions—like designating the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist entity—are far from simple. Every move is revealed as a blend of security calculation, politics, and historical memory, with the next steps carrying profound consequences.