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The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | November 29th, 2025: The Ukraine Peace Talks With Ryan McBeth & A Terror Label for the Muslim Brotherhood
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- [00:00]
Mike Baker
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- [00:30]
Mariam Waba
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- [01:13]
Mike Baker
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get brief. First up, real movement on the Ukraine peace push, at least. Reportedly, Washington's plan is now trimmed to points, and that's if I'm not mistaken, nine points fewer than the original 28 point peace plan. And US officials followed the Geneva talks with rare shuttle diplomacy in Abu Dhabi. Good friend of the show Ryan Macbeth joins us to break it all down. Later in the show, President Trump prepares to label the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization. Now that's a move that could reshape US Policy across the Middle East. Mariam Waba from the foundation for Defense of Democracies the joins us to explain all of that. But first, today's Situation report. Spotlight Diplomatic efforts to end a war in Ukraine accelerated on multiple fronts just this week in Geneva. U.S. ukrainian and European officials spent days refining Washington's proposed peace framework, which started as a 28 point plan and then was narrowed to 19 core provisions covering security guarantees, future force limits, and the steps needed to restore Ukrainian sovereignty. But even after the Geneva talks wrapped, US Officials kept moving in a bit of shell diplomacy. Senior American envoys flew to Abu Dhabi for face to face discussions with Russian counterparts, testing whether Moscow is willing to engage on any of those 19 points. Here's my bet.
- [02:48]
Ryan Macbeth
They're not.
- [02:49]
Mike Baker
For more on this, let me bring in a friend of the show, Ryan Macbeth. Ryan is a open Source intelligence analyst. And you can check out his YouTube channel. And I suggest you do, because it's fascinating at Ryan Macbeth programming. Ryan, thank you very much for, for being here today. And thank you for looking so festive, might I add.
- [03:08]
Ryan Macbeth
Thank you so much. You know, I figure if you have to go to a Christmas party, why not wear a NORAD shirt? That way people will come up and talk to you. Because it's got jets on the front. Got a F18, Canadian F18, and an American F22 protest. Protecting the skies jointly like we have since 1958. You can find that@bunkerbranding.com let's start with.
- [03:33]
Mike Baker
Where we are with this Ukraine peace plan. Started out as a 28 point plan, right. And now it's reportedly a 19 point plan. But tell us what you know about where this currently sits.
- [03:44]
Ryan Macbeth
That's, that's an excellent question. Right now, it seems like Ukraine has rejected this peace plan, mainly because Zelensky has a constituency of his own and he has to sell this to his people. And there are a number of things in this particular plan that the people might not want to vote for. For example, changing their constitution to guarantee that they won't join NATO. Ukraine is a democracy and people have to vote for that. As for this particular 28 point plan, I believe it is dead in the water. There has been some rumors that it might have been written by Russia. We don't quite know exactly who wrote this plan as of now, but as of now, it certainly seems like this particular plan is dead in the water. Although you could consider it a starting point for moving forward with a peace plan.
- [04:35]
Mike Baker
Yeah, I mean, I think that is probably where people are landing at this point.
- [04:40]
Ryan Macbeth
Right.
- [04:40]
Mike Baker
They started, it's very interesting, prior to the White House announcing, look at this, we got a 28 point peace plan. And it seems to include most of the Kremlin's demands that they've had and haven't strayed from over the past couple of years. Prior to that, it seemed like we were getting a lot of tough talk coming out of the White House about additional sanctions. They did sanction Ross Neft and Luke Oil, which I thought was just, I mean, about time. Should have done that back when this thing started to have a maximum impact on, on Putin. So it looked like we were kind of going in that direction. Maximum pressure on Putin. Let's try to get him to feel enough pain to get him to the negotiating table. And then suddenly here comes this 28 point peace plan. And it does seem heavily weighted in favor of the Kremlin and then shortly thereafter, and then, and by the way, President Trump saying things like, well, you know, he could fight his little heart out if he doesn't want to accept this plan, meaning Zelens. And then suddenly, you know, everyone's meeting. Ukrainians and the US envoys are meeting in Geneva. They hammer out a 19 point peace plan which is a revision of the original one. So they lost nine points. We don't know all the details or specifics of this. And now apparently they're discussing it in Abu Dhabi with Russian envoys present. So it just seemed like, not that it's unusual for the White House to, you know, be a little bit back and forth. It does seem like a real turnabout here in a very short period of time.
- [06:18]
Ryan Macbeth
It does. And I think what the United States is afraid of is perhaps being too effective. When you think about it, when this war ends, it will end one day. We need to make sure that Russia has a soft landing. And that might sound crazy to someone from Ukraine, like, why shouldn't we punish Russia? Why shouldn't we demand that they pay reparations? Well, we did this, we tried this in Germany after World War I, and that's what led directly to World War II. So I think that the fear in the United States is that if Russia collapses, it could happen in 2027, 2028, if they collapse economically. And that means if we are fighting China over Taiwan in 2027 or 2028 and all of a sudden Russia collapses, we're going to deal with maybe hundreds of warlords who each have their own little nuclear fiefdom. Now, granted, Russia, Moscow still has the permissive action links to launch those weapons, but at the same time, you don't necessarily want a warlord to have a nuclear weapon. So if we can get this war over with now and then make sure Russia has that soft economic landing, reintroducing them into the global economic marketplace. Well, that means that perhaps Russia won't collapse. We won't have warlord fiefdoms that we have to then go in and stabilize what we're trying to fight. China. It's not fair, but I understand what the administration is trying to do here.
- [07:52]
Mike Baker
Yeah, yeah. Well, first of all, ladies and gentlemen, you heard it here on the situation report. You don't want a warlord to have a nuclear weapon. And I think that's, that's sound advice from, from Ryan and hopefully the White House is listening. But listen, I, I, I, here's what I'm going to say to that. I don't disagree. We don't want. You don't want to collapse in Russia. That, that does not serve US national security interests. Right. You don't, you don't want a failed state that holds a very large nuclear arsenal. And so I think most people could get on board with that idea. The reasoning behind not pushing hard on the Russian energy sector, though, I think I've gotten on board with the idea that at the very beginning of this invasion, the Biden administration didn't want to exert sanctions to any degree on the energy sector in Russia. And I'm of the mind now that this is going to show how cynical I am that they didn't want to do that because gas prices were high back then. And I don't think they wanted the pain from the voters in the US of rising gas prices at the pump when suddenly Russian oil was taken off the global market. And I would argue that that same political calculus exists today with the current administration. That's just the nature of politics. And nobody wants a pissed off voter going to the pump and saying, God damn it, why are the prices increasing at the pump? Why should I care about the Ukrainians? So I think there's a little more at play. Again, I don't disagree with your analysis by any means. I think you're right. They don't want a failed state. But I think there's also some politics involved here.
- [09:45]
Ryan Macbeth
You could be right about that. I think the one difference is that President Biden was not of the mindset of increasing oil drilling in the U.S. i believe they, they restricted offshore drilling, and, you know, drilling in the Arctic was off limits. But now with President Trump in charge, one advantage stemming from that is drill, baby, drill. So we have the handcuffs off our oil companies who can drill for shale. Remember, I believe the United States is an oil exporter. Now, a lot of that's because of shale. And if we can open up other fields, we can pump our own oil, and that is critical for energy independence. You are absolutely right that oil is fungible. Right. It's a commodity. If Russia is selling oil to China, that means there's less oil that the United States can sell to China. But we can pump more oil. We can explore more fields. That is one big difference. I don't believe President Biden wanted to do that because of the environmental constituency.
- [10:46]
Mike Baker
Yeah, I think it's probably okay. Let's, let's, let's show America what compromise looks like. I think, I think your points are correct. I think my point's correct, too. So, so we'll just put them all in the same pot and say, look how smart we are. Let's, let's move from this peace plan. Because you're, you're right, your opening comment, which is nobody really knows. And, and you know, it's, it's very unclear where this thing is heading. Let's talk about what's actually happening on the battlefield right now.
- [11:16]
Ryan Macbeth
Well, it's been pretty much the same way it's been for the past couple of the past year or so, where neither side is really making any gains. Russia is slowly making incremental gains. The city of Petrovsk, I believe that was recently taken by Russia, although there's some in Ukraine who says they haven't taken it. The city is basically a shell at this point, but it was a major rail hub for Ukraine to push rail cars full of ammunition or troops or supplies to different sectors. So the loss of Petrovsk is bad, it's not horrible. But this slow Russian incremental gain took about a year to execute. That kind of tells you where the Russian army is right now. They are really only capable of making these marginal slow incremental gains. And any kind of breakthrough or even pushing troops through a breakthrough would be extremely difficult for Russia to execute.
- [12:19]
Mike Baker
And yet they seem to continue their focus on drone and missile barrages. Right. I mean, that, you know, that seems to be almost a nightly occurrence now and it is taking a toll. What do you know about the impact, because we've talked about the impact of the Ukrainian strikes inside Russia on Russian energy infrastructure. But what do you know about the success of the, what the Russians are doing in Ukraine, targeting their energy infrastructure?
- [12:49]
Ryan Macbeth
Well, they have targeted their energy infrastructure. Blackouts are almost nightly. Ukraine has responded by installing giant banks of batteries that can kind of take over when some of their infrastructure is hit. Russian drones, they actually did something that nobody's ever really done in the history of warfare and that is use drones to actually hold ground or at least deny ground. So these guys were flying first person view drones on fiber optic cables. That way they can't be jammed into Procrost and just kind of laying them on the ground and waiting, laying them on the ground to save battery and waiting for Ukrainian units to pass. When they see those Ukrainian units, they activate their, they activate their motors, lift the drones off and try to strike those Ukrainian units. So they're actually able to do ISR intelligence surveillance reconnaissance sitting on the ground in the grass waiting, and actually deny areas. And that's something that nobody's ever done before. They've always said you need infantry to hold ground. Well, Russia was able to figure out a way to use drones to deny ground, which is not the same as holding, but close enough to make resupply very, very difficult for the Ukrainians.
- [14:06]
Mike Baker
Okay, that is fascinating. Yeah, I think you know the one, one of the takeaways and so many, but one of the key takeaways here is just how drone warfare has changed strategic thinking for this and also for any future conflicts. And I suspect there will be future conflicts. Ryan, if you'll stay right where you are, we've got to take a quick break. Got a ton more questions to ask you. And we'll be right back here on THE SITUATION REPORT with more from Ryan macbeth in just a moment. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message from our pals over at birchgold Group. Now, it's that time of year again, as you might know, and you ask yourself, what time of year is that? Well, it's the one time of year that Birch Gold Group gives away free gold with every qualifying purchase. That's right for Black Friday, when you convert an existing IRA or 401k into a tax sheltered IRA and gold, birch Gold will send free gold to your home for every $20,000 purchased. Look, gold started this year around, what, $2,600 an ounce. And, and by October, it was over $4,000 an ounce. And you ask yourself why? Well, mostly because of global uncertainty. 2025 has been defined by trade wars and real wars and just general unease. And central banks are pulling away from the US Dollar as the global reserve currency. So as you probably know, gold thrives in times of uncertainty. If you're looking to diversify your savings, Birch gold can help. Plus, now through November 30th, get free gold with a qualifying purchase. Just text PDB to 989-898 to claim your eligibility and for a free information kit on gold. But your opportunity for free gold with purchase ends on November 30th, so don't wait. Text PDB to the number 989898 for all the details.
- [15:56]
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- [16:24]
Mike Baker
Learn more at Capella Eduardo Introducing Meta Ray Ban Display, the world's most advanced AI glasses with a full color display built into the lens of the glasses. It's there when you need it and gone when you don't. Send and receive messages, translate or caption live conversations. Collaborate with Meta AI and more. Be one of the first to try Meta Ray ban display. Visit meta.com metaraybanddisplay to book a demo and find your pair foreign welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. And joining me once again is Ryan Macbeth. You can check him out on YouTube and I suggest you do at Ryan Macbeth's programming. Now, Ryan, before we get started, I want to kind of shift gears from Ukraine here in, in just a moment. But before we do, our phone lines have been jammed during that first segment with people wanting to know where they can get themselves one of those festive Christmas sweaters that you're wearing.
- [17:24]
Ryan Macbeth
You can grab that@bungerbranding.com I really appreciate you asking.
- [17:29]
Mike Baker
Well, yeah, and I'm not asking anyway because I, I'm hoping I'll get a free one in the mail. That's out of the question. Come on. Look, here's the, here's the, here's the next question and I, I know this is a little bit of a, of a left turn from what we were talking about battlefield realities and then prior to that, the peace plan that, that, you know, may or may not be in the works. What have you heard in terms of credible intelligence? And I know this is a bit of a left turn, incredible intelligence about Chinese PLA personnel, officers working side by side with Russia or there as observers.
- [18:07]
Ryan Macbeth
So we know that Russia has provided airborne units and training to the Chinese. So there is that relationship between China and their officers. I haven't necessarily heard any credible intelligence that there are Chinese officers in Russia or in occupied Ukraine, but I would not be surprised if there were. It makes a lot of sense for Chinese observers to come and look at how Russia is doing business. The United States partners with NATO and Poland where they have, I believe it's called jtech, which is a school where Ukrainians go and teach in. I believe it's Gdansk, Poland, outside this old air base. And the United States is learning actively from Ukrainian soldiers. It would not be surprising if Chinese officers are there with Russian officers embedded learning how they fight. I'm not saying they are fighting. I certainly doubt that the case because China doesn't want any casualties. But it would only make sense for China to learn firsthand how a new war can evolve over time.
- [19:20]
Mike Baker
Yeah, yeah, I think that does make sense, and I agree with that. They would draw the line at actually having their troops in combat positions. But from, you know, from a learning perspective, you. It's hard to imagine they would give up on that opportunity. Right. So I just wanted to throw that at you. Let's go in a completely different direction and land over in the Middle East. Recently we learned that the US will be selling F35s to the Saudis. What can you tell us about that?
- [19:56]
Ryan Macbeth
So this deal came directly from President Trump. I believe it was 24 or 28 F35s proposed for sale. Now, there's a lot that has to happen before we actually sell an F35. It has to get through armed services. There's a number of committees that have to greenlight this transfer of technology. The Saudis have to agree to establish, send their pilots to an American school to learn how to fly the F35. There's a lot that has to happen, and we have to manufacture them, and that takes a while to do. There's other countries that are in line for the F35. We also don't know what model it's going to be. Could it be the A model that the Air Force uses? Is it the B model that the Marines use? So what model would the Saudis purchase? So anything like this is probably going to be about four years off. But kind of the neat thing here is that it gives the Saudis a level of capability that really only Israel has. Israel was essentially able to walk into Iran, fly past three countries, overfly three countries that didn't even know they were there, walk right into Iran, destroy all of their surface terror missile systems, and then essentially act with impunity. And if we give the Saudis that capability as well, then you have Israel possibly attacking from the east, which is a capability that they've already proven they have, and the Saudis capable of attacking from the south. And if we can get Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates on board with the F35 program, that's even more possible vectors for attack. So it kind of lets Iran know that they need to cut their shenanigans off or else they're going to be surrounded by stealth fighters that can walk into their country any time they want.
- [21:47]
Mike Baker
And the downside to a sale like this? You already mentioned the technology transfer issue, but you know what? What about the downside?
- [21:57]
Ryan Macbeth
So there is a possibility that this technology could leak through the way the Saudis do business. A lot of Saudi pilots are actually contractors, some of whom are from Pakistan. Pakistan has a relationship with China. Now, it's certainly possible we could write into a contract that only Saudi pilots or contractors that have been beaten through the United States are allowed to fly. Only Saudi maintainers or perhaps American contractors from. From American companies are allowed to work on these jets. And also you have Israel, who has very capable F35 jets, the F35i, which is a little bit different than American F35 jets. It kind of has their own technology baked in. They won't be getting similar jets. And theoretically those jets will be less capable. I can imagine Israel isn't totally crazy about this deal because if the Saudis ever decide to turn on Israel, that is a capability Israel doesn't necessarily want to fight. Even if those jets will be theoretically less capable or capable of different things than Israeli F35s. This is adding another layer to the mix here that Saudi Arabia already has a lot of American tech. They fly the F15SA, they fly the British Tornado. They fly the Eurofighter, I believe, as well, which is conglomerate of several countries. So there already is a path for technology to leak into China. We just have to have appropriate control measures on board to make sure that doesn't happen, or at least reduce the.
- [23:35]
Mike Baker
Likelihood or severity if it does. Have you seen anything? I was just thinking while you were talking whether I've seen anything specifically about Israeli pushback to the news of this sale.
- [23:49]
Ryan Macbeth
I have seen articles in Israeli newspapers that this is a bad idea, but what else are the Israelis going to say? The idea of having a theoretical adversary with a similar weapon system, I can easily understand how that could. That could frighten anyone in Israel. But the path here is if we can get Saudi Arabia into an alliance or at least into an accord with Israel, then you have two countries that are theoretically allies. I call me crazy, but I think of that scene in Predator where. Where Dutch shook hands with. With the CIA officer. Right. And they showed their muscles. And imagine Israel's power and Saudi Arabia's power together. That is a huge counter against Iran. Yeah.
- [24:41]
Mike Baker
Well done you for. For citing Predator. I don't think that happens often enough. Hey, Ryan. What? Just talking about the present time, the moment that we're currently in. Right. What haven't I asked you about that should be from your perspective on our radar?
- [25:01]
Ryan Macbeth
Venezuela. Absolutely. Venezuela. I think it is likely that we're probably going to see some sort of action in Venezuela within the next 10 days or so, at least after Thanksgiving. So the 10 days between Thanksgiving or 10 days after Thanksgiving, I think we are Likely to see some sort of military action in Venezuela.
- [25:23]
Mike Baker
Okay. Well, yes, I just, I just wrote that down. I'm gonna have you back on if it does happen. If it doesn't happen. I'm still having you back on. So. Yeah, there you go.
- [25:34]
Ryan Macbeth
Don't be wrong. The rumor mill is saying that a lot of leave was canceled for after Thanksgiving. So they don't tend to do that without good reason. And there was that recent video made from seven Democratic senators saying, hey, you must obey lawful orders, which I believe was a sideways hint at some sort of action happening in Venezuela fairly soon.
- [26:00]
Mike Baker
Yeah, I'd love to. If we had more time, I'd love to talk to you about that video. Very interesting. It's a, there's a little bit of hysteria going on there in terms of, you know, once again. Right. I mean, I would argue that, that in that video, those individuals, Mark Kelly and Elisa Slotkin and some of the others, you know, they do what, what the, the, the, the people on the, on the, on the left or the Democrats, however you want to refer to them, a lot of smart people. Right. But they, this, this, this constant clutching of the pearls in terms of what could happen. Oh, my God. He could issue an illegal order. And then, you know, someone asked Senator Slotkin, well, do you know of any. No, I don't know of any. But you know what? He could do it. And so they're just, you know, they're doing this as they've been doing for quite some time, and of course, the media eats it up. But I would like to have you on to kind of dissect that for a segment, because it is, it is fascinating. And, but other than. Other than that.
- [26:55]
Ryan Macbeth
Yeah.
- [26:55]
Mike Baker
The buildup in Venezuela, out off the coast and in the Caribbean does seem to portend something. It is interesting also. And then I'll let you go that it is interesting that we're hearing these rumblings about possible direct talks with Nicolas Maduro between Trump and Maduro, possible feelers being put out by Maduro or those close to him about, well, he could be willing to leave, perhaps under the right circumstances. So whether it's direct action or whether we see shortly after Thanksgiving some movement in terms of the regime just folding, Maduro deciding on his own to leave to save his skin, or those around him deciding it's time for him to go, I think you're absolutely right to put Venezuela on our radar for the very short term. And finally, Ryan, I'm fascinated by this. My wife always says I have way too much schlock in my offices. And so you, your background is always fascinating to me. If you could highlight one thing behind you right now, if you could highlight one thing.
- [27:59]
Ryan Macbeth
So it'd probably be this, this Turkish flag right here. The Turkish general staff sent me that flag and that patch. Turkey has been a vital member of NATO. They have the, essentially the, the second largest army in NATO and they have been our partners for a very long time. I, that's probably one of the, the proudest things of the Turkish general staff. Watches my YouTube channel. And so I want, I want to say, I actually don't know how to say thank you in Turkish, but I would want to say thank you to those gentlemen for sending me their patch.
- [28:41]
Mike Baker
You know, I think somebody over there deserves a NORAD Christmas sweater. You know, Christmas is a big deal over there.
- [28:48]
Ryan Macbeth
Some Christians in Turkey, I don't know, I don't know how many, what the population breaks out is, but if there are any Christians on the general staff will be more than happy to send them a shirt.
- [29:00]
Mike Baker
Send them along. Hey, Ryan Macbeth, as always, man, thank you. We love having you on the show for your insight, your expertise, and I hope you'll, you'll come back here very shortly.
- [29:12]
Ryan Macbeth
Thank you so much for inviting me.
- [29:14]
Mike Baker
Take care, man. All right, coming up next. Well, here we go. A major shift in U.S. policy. The Trump administration prepares to designate the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group, which some nations in the Middle east have done for quite some time. Mariam Waba of the foundation for Defense of Democracies. She'll join us to break it all down. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message from my friends over Tritails Beef. All right, here's the deal. Tri Tails Premium Beef. A terrific fifth generation Texas ranching family is running their biggest Black Friday event of the year. Now, look, you got to check out Tri Tails. I'm serious. They're all about raising cattle the right way and delivering delicious beef right to your door. Their steaks, their roasts, I love them. Right? The quality is amazing. So here's the deal. With every qualifying purchase, you're getting a gift added to your order. No gimmicks, no run around. Just spend and get rewarded. Look, it's about putting the best tasting beef you've ever had on the table. Ribeyes, fillets, roast steaks, and getting something extra while you're at it. If you've been waiting to stock up, well, now's the time. Feed your family and grab your Black Friday gift before it's gone. Just head on over to try beef.com PDB again, that's tribe.com PDB every leap.
- [30:31]
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- [31:00]
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- [31:57]
Mike Baker
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. President Trump is moving forward with a plan to formally designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a foreign terrorist organization, one of the most sweeping steps any US Administration has considered toward that group. The proposal reflects long standing concerns inside the intelligence and counterterrorism communities that the Brotherhood isn't just a political movement, but a sprawling network whose branches have supported or inspired violent offshoots across the Middle East. Now, a designation would trigger sanctions, restrict fundraising, and reshape how Washington might deal with governments that still tolerate Brotherhood linked factions. Mariam Waba is a research analyst with the foundation for Defense of Democracies, where she closely tracks the activities and influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. And, and she's been gracious enough to join us right now on THE Situation report. Thanks very much for being here.
- [32:52]
Mariam Waba
Thanks for having me.
- [32:54]
Mike Baker
Oh, absolutely. Listen, let's start for the benefit of our viewers, if you could give us a brief summary or rundown or explanation of the Muslim Brotherhood.
- [33:06]
Mariam Waba
Absolutely. And it's a great place to start. So the Muslim Brotherhood, simply put, is a transnational Islamist organization that has its roots in the Middle east, particularly Egypt, which is my area of focus. And the Brotherhood started by this teacher, Hassan al Banna in 1928, who was reacting to a couple of things. One, he was living in a time where the Ottoman Empire had just fell. So he was dealing with this existential crisis of Islam which had been such a big part of culture and politics is no longer here. And two, the British imperialist presence in Egypt. And he really saw this as an opportunity for, for him to lead the effort to bring back Islam into society. And he did it by beginning this group that saw itself as the arbiter of culture and politics in Islamic societies. And that's where our story begins. The organization has really changed in the last century that it's existed. What we're seeing now is offshoots, branches and franchises of the Muslim Brotherhood. Some are violent actors, which, some of which have been designated by the United States government. A prime example of this is Hamas. And some are relatively peaceful, participate in parliamentary elections in the countries that host them and so on and so forth. And that's really the 30,000 foot view of the Muslim Brotherhood.
- [34:30]
Mike Baker
So when it was started, it was perceived or the concept was more than just a way to politically play a role. Right. So I mean, it sounds like, because you reference cultural, so you know, how broad was that, that focus?
- [34:50]
Mariam Waba
What really made the Brotherhood so seductive at the beginning is because is. Is the fact that it filled so many gaps in Egyptian culture where the state was lacking. I grew up in Egypt, so I can speak to this a little bit anecdotally. Obviously not in the early 1920s, 30s and 20s, but more recently, looking at how the Brotherhood operates in Egypt or operated before it became banned, they provided things like tutoring lessons and hospital and early childhood education. These are places where Egypt and other Arab states tend to lack resource or lack the will to provide for its citizens. And the Muslim Brotherhood is savvy enough of an organization that they understand that to win the hearts and minds of a population like that and to eventually win elections, you have to provide people, citizens with the basic needs that they see that they need on a day in and day out basis. And we see this strategy playing out across the Middle East. There's a reason that Hamas won in Gaza the last elections that were held. There's a reason that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt after the Arab Spring won the first. Democratically. Democratically is a loose term here, but the, the, the first time Egypt held the democratic election, the Muslim Brotherhood won. And I think there's something to learn from that. Right. Why is an Islamist violent jihadi organization continuing to win elections across the Middle East?
- [36:18]
Mike Baker
Well, I think yeah, as you were describing, sort of that concept of the Brotherhood at the early stages, looking to provide support and assistance to the people. All I could think about was Hamas and the way that they used that as a controlling element in Gaza. Now, is it the case that Hamas was established as the Muslim Brotherhood representative of the Palestinian people? Is that a, a way to say that or.
- [36:49]
Mariam Waba
No, Right on the money. The Muslim Brotherhood chapters manifest a couple of different ways. And Hamas is what we describe as a Muslim Brotherhood chapter in the last two decades. Particularly what we've, what we've seen the Brotherhood lean into and excel is that they're able to kind of create offshoots and branches that meet different goals. So we have things like Husband, which is a offshoot, a militant, militarized offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. But you also have things like the Muslim Brotherhood presence in Morocco, which is actually quite liberal and quite open to things like normalization with Israel. And they're really using this tactic, the fact that they're so malleable and liquid, if you'll allow me to use that word, to infiltrate different countries, different governments and different systems all over the Middle East. But so let me, let me answer your question more succinctly here. Yes, Hamas is a Muslim Brotherhood chapter in Gaza.
- [37:50]
Mike Baker
Okay. So, I mean, it's fascinating because so you've got, you've got this organization that started and you've got, as you've said, chapters, you know, various groups, representative organizations with what appear to be varying philosophies, some violent, some, as you pointed out in Morocco, more liberal at the end of the day. Do they. Is, is that because they're adapting to that particular environment that they're in, but they still have the same, you know, long view or ideology, or are they legitimately fundamentally different, but just grouped under this massive Muslim Brotherhood umbrella? I'm not sure if that question makes sense or not.
- [38:39]
Mariam Waba
No, it does. I think it's the point that the EO that we saw, the executive order from last night from the White House, we saw, it's the point that it's really trying to address. So we saw the EO mention three specific branches, the Egyptian branch, the Jordanian branch, and the Lebanese branch. And what you're hitting on here is really something fascinating within the Brotherhood and those who study it can kind of sit there and trace the lineage. There's two part. This is a two part answer. So you're asking if the group is ideological. But the short answer is yes. Everything that we know about how the Brotherhood operates, how its Branches and offshoots and franchises operate, makes us believe, leads us to the belief that it is an ideological organization. Look at their motto. Allah is our destination, Quran is our constitution institution. These are things that they say. And now that makes us have to reckon with the fact that certain chapters are more violent, certain chapters are more liberal. So what is it? Is it the fact that some of them say that they're Muslim Brotherhood but they're not as ideological as the rest, or are they playing a wait and see game as we've seen play out across the Middle East? And I think, you know, if you're asking me my opinion as an analyst here, I think I would have to fall in the latter camp. And the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood is smart enough and has gone through various, many, many cycles of repression and resurgence to understand that they can wait this out. So when, when we look at, you know, a more liberal, more democratic, more. I wouldn't, it would be a little bit of a misstep to say they're pro Western, but they're Western tolerant. Let's say in my eyes this is a waiting game. They're dealing with a monarchy obviously in Morocco. And they're seeing that to engage in this political system they have to, they have to play the game a little bit. And if that means being modern and liberal for a couple years until they come into power, then that's what they'll do. And that's exactly what we saw play out in Egypt in the Arab Spring.
- [40:45]
Mike Baker
Well, it would strike me as a fairly successful strategy given sort of the short term view or the ADHD that exists in the West. Right. I mean we, we tend to get bored with one thing and move on. And you know, we're like a raccoon chasing a tinfoil ball. So I, I can think, I mean, in a way this is not, it's not apples to apples, but I mean, China, you know, they're, they're the same way. They take a very long view. Right. Knowing that the west will get bored with something in the short term and, and meanwhile they've got their eyes focused down the road. Besides Egypt, what countries have banned the Brotherhood? I mean, again, before we get to the US decision, before the, the executive order that you referenced, what other countries have, have banned the Brotherhood?
- [41:34]
Mariam Waba
Absolutely. So Egypt was, I believe, the first. If, if somebody doesn't correct me, then I think it's the first. Then we have Jordan, which was very recent. Actually in April of this year, there was a Jordanian Intelligence foiled a plot by the Jordanian Brotherhood. To. To it was a terrorist plot that they foiled. Then we have the Gulf countries, which are very interesting because there was a moment in time where the Gulf countries, and I'm particularly talking about Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates where some would analyze that the Gulf countries in, I want to say the 50, 60, 70, really propped up organizations like the Brotherhood and propped up the ideological milieu of. Of the Brotherhood. And now we're seeing them come around to designating them and banning the Brotherhood. How we as the United States are going to look at designation is going to be a lot different than how the Middle east looks at their version of designation. And I'm happy to yap your ear off about what I mean by that is.
- [42:43]
Mike Baker
Yeah, yaps a technical term. Is that right? I think that is. Yeah. Listen, I had a lot more questions here to throw your way, but Miriam, if you could stay right where you are. We do have to take a quick break and then we'll be back with more of the PDB situation Report. So please stick around. The world moves fast. Your workday even faster. Pitching products, drafting reports, analyzing data.
- [43:10]
Ryan Macbeth
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- [43:33]
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Mariam Waba
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- [43:44]
Commercial Announcer
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- [43:48]
Mariam Waba
Here to pick up my son, Milo.
- [43:49]
Ryan Macbeth
There's no Milo here who picked up my son from school.
- [43:53]
Mike Baker
Streaming only on Peacock. I'm gonna need the name of everyone that could have a connection.
- [44:00]
Mariam Waba
You don't understand. It was just the five of us. So this was all planned. What are you gonna do? I will do whatever it takes to get my son back.
- [44:08]
Mike Baker
I honestly didn't see this coming. These nice people killing each other. All her fault. A new series streaming now only on Peacock. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Now joining us once again is research analyst at the foundation for Defense of Democracies, Mariam Waba. Mariam, thanks so much for sticking around. We just finished talking about the Muslim Brotherhood in terms of which countries have banned them in the past. Right. We've got this executive order announced by The White House, now the US Is declaring them a foreign terrorist organization. But before we kind of dive into that and what that means, could you talk a bit about what the presence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the US and in the west in general looks like?
- [44:56]
Mariam Waba
Absolutely. And I would love to maybe point out something about the EO that I think is getting lost in some of the messaging, and it's making some people mad and some people happy. And I'll tell you in which camp I belong to in a second. But the EO doesn't actually do much except order the State Department and the Treasury Department to look into if those three branches, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, meet the criteria for designation as either an FTO or especially Designated Terrorist Entity. And I think that's a really important distinction. We're not at designation yet. Nobody has said the FTO letters are assigned to any of these chapters. But the interagencies within the United States government are beginning to build a case as per the eo. And I think this is really important to note. So the secretaries have 45 days, I believe, to come back to the president, 30 days to create a case, 45 days to make, to designate any of those three chapters or maybe all of those three chapters. And that's an important distinction. Look, I mean, I don't particularly study the Muslim Brotherhood presence in the west, but where I can tell you a little bit more about where we're seeing the Muslim Brotherhood influences come up. It's media. I recently penned a piece for the Free Press, and it was talking about how the Muslim Brotherhood built a media empire. And I go into some of the nuances, and that came with the fact that in the wake of. In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, many Arab countries made it virtually impossible for any elements of the Muslim Brotherhood to exist. So the Muslim Brotherhood being the Muslim Brotherhood being strategic and tactical, they took a step back and wondered, how can we still reach the world, even though we're going to be under extreme threat of operations where we're headquartered? And this is where the media strategy really began for the Brotherhood. And what I found in some of my research about understanding the empire that is the media presence of the Brotherhood is that they're operating out of Europe. There's alleged evidence that there might be some media presence here in the United States. And I really have to use a legend here, and I have to speak a little bit loosely about it, because we don't have the hard, concrete evidence, but I'll give you a prime example. There was this News channel called McMalin which in Arabic translates to we will continue. And it speaks to the nature of the Muslim Brotherhood and its intent and commitment to continuing. So. So that satellite channel popped up in Turkey in 2014 after Turkey gave the brother, the Egyptian Brotherhood, kind of a camp to exist in Turkey. And in, in the process of Turkey and Egypt having a rapprochement in the years after that, Egypt had kindly asked that Turkey not allow the Brotherhood to continue to operate within Turkish borders. Turkey accepted the offer and we saw MC taken off the air in Turkey. Not a month later, that same channel was operating, building a studio out of London, reaching million the millions they had before and millions more. And because of the laws in the uk, they really couldn't be touched because of the west operates by its own rules of freedom of speech and yada yada. But this is the point I'm trying to get to here, and maybe I'm belaboring it, but the Brotherhood understands that when it knows it can't exist somewhere, it transforms, it reinvents itself so it can exist elsewhere. And I think we're gonna see, and there's far smarter, more capable people that are doing the research on the domestic side here, but we're going to see that strategy start to play out here in the US where the Brotherhood can't announce itself as the Brotherhood. We're going to see it announce itself as other things and hide behind other branding in the West.
- [48:53]
Mike Baker
That is fascinating and again speaks to what you had referenced before, which is sort of that long view that they have now. To what degree have past administrations in the US been pressured? Maybe pressured is the wrong word.
- [49:13]
Ryan Macbeth
I guess.
- [49:14]
Mike Baker
Let me put it a different way. In the, in the past, whether it's the Trump administration, the Biden administration, Obama, whomever, have the governments of Egypt, Jordan, uae, have they attempted to convince the US in the past to lay down this designation, this FTO designation on the Brotherhood?
- [49:36]
Mariam Waba
Absolutely. I mean, we saw several attempts and the story here is quite lengthy, but FTD is a nonpartisan organization. But we do have to give a tip of the hat to Senator Ted Cruz, who's been leading this effort since as early as 2015 when he introduced a bill to try to designate the Brotherhood. I think various attempts, including an attempt by the first Trump administration, have failed because they were trying to designate the Muslim Brotherhood, which is as we, as we're discussing, an organization that doesn't exist in practicality. You know, if you give me a pen and paper and you tell me, like, draw me a picture of the Muslim Brotherhood, And I would draw you like Hamas, and I would draw you the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and I would try to draw you pictures of these distinct autonomous chapters and try to bear hug that for an FTO or any other designation is quite hard. And let me get back to your question here too. Have other.
- [50:35]
Mike Baker
If I could interrupt you just there. Do they have, I mean, if you, in terms of a diagram, if you were going to draw a wiring diagram, do these various chapters, entities, organizations, whatever, do they have a shared leadership structure or other linkages, funding, you know, legal support, anything along those lines?
- [50:57]
Mariam Waba
Yes and no. And when I say yes, I mean that there's an ideological link and these organizations sometimes partner up. And a good example of this is after the October 7 massacre by Hamas in Israel, we saw the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood branch issue a statement of support and calling for more October 7th. So if that's the kind of support we're talking about, then yes, that exists. My colleague Ahmed Sharawi at FTD just recently uncovered this data point that the Jordanian intelligence put together. There are charities operating in Jordan that were allegedly fundraising for humanitarian needs in Hamas. The Jordanian Intelligence just discovered that 99%, and that's not an exaggeration or hyperbole, 99% of the funds raised in Jordan through these charities actually ended up to hamas and only 1% and ended up in Gaza for humanitarian reasons. So all of these chapters coordinate, they link up, they talk, they exchange ideas and intelligence. But in terms of, in terms of, is there a clear leadership structure and is there like an org chart? We don't believe that this is the case for the Brotherhood.
- [52:13]
Mike Baker
Okay, and has that been one of the re. I, I, I think I'm going to answer my own question, but based on what you said, in terms of the difficulty of getting your arms around it and understanding, you know, how you deal with it, I assume that nebulous nature of it is why, in part, there's been this back and forth in the US as an example as to what do we do with it, how do we classify it?
- [52:35]
Mariam Waba
Exactly. And again, to bring it full circle to the beginning of our conversation, the United States laws that work to designate organizations or institutions as FTOs or other terrorist organizations are quite intense and they require a lot of evidentiary standards. It's a high evidentiary standard to be met for something to be designated as an fto. And when you're looking at the organization as a whole, you can point to certain parts and say, they don't meet that standard, others do. And I think what this EO that we got from the White House last night is just breaks it apart. It's a puzzle piece. So let's take the puzzle apart and look at the parts that meet the standard we've set for ourselves so that we can live up to our own laws and let's, you know, on an annual or semiannual basis look at the ones that we've deemed do not meet the evidentiary standard and we can come back to it when it does, if it does.
- [53:35]
Mike Baker
So as an analyst, what do you think? I know that's some speculation on your part, but what do you think will happen as a result of this? What is it 45 day review that the executive order calls for?
- [53:49]
Mariam Waba
Well, my hope is that both free branches are designated and perhaps they need to be designated as both FTOs and especially designated terrorists entities such as. I'm going to get the letters wrong, but it's sdgt I believe. And I think the administration chose these three branches for a couple of reasons. The primary one being that these three branches very clearly meet all of the standards for designation. The Egyptian branch has obviously been whittled down to bare minimum since the Egyptian state designated it. But that doesn't mean that they haven't engaged in terrorist activity since then. An offshoot of the offshoot, it's called Hassan, just in the last six months has tried to engage in terrorist activities in Egypt. Multiple plots were foiled by the Egyptian intelligence. And if you threaten the national security of a US ally, it's almost as bad as threatening the national security of the U.S. so Egypt's branch. Gotta go. Lebanon is particularly interesting because the FEJ forces, which is the militant arm of the Muslim Brotherhood's Lebanon chapter, actually participated in the October 7 war and launched missiles at, at northern Israel from southern Lebanon. So clear case as well. And, and there's many examples here. I'm kind of just giving you the obvious ones and the Jordanian one again is a clear case. April, we have that foiled plan by the Jordanian intelligence for a terrorist attack on a U.S. ally. And that's terrorism if I've ever seen it.
- [55:30]
Mike Baker
Now, being mindful of your time, I've got one last question. And I know this, we're very a tiny bit off topic, but I want to look at Gaza and Hamas, right, as a chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood and again ask you as an analyst for your perspective and I realize again that's part speculation, but where do you think Hamas is in a year from now? I mean, with all the back and forth there's Very fragile ceasefire that's holding, their apparent refusal to disarm or lack of interest in giving up governing. Where do you perceive Hamas will be if we kind of look down the road just a little bit?
- [56:07]
Mariam Waba
Okay, I'll be very brief. If it were up to the Israelis, of course, and Washington, Hamas needs to be disarmed and removed entirely from Gaza. How doable does that look? At the moment? Not very much. I think where the United States can do more on achieving this goal that we've set for ourselves and our Israeli allies is we need to put a lot more pressure on our Arab allies. I'm talking about Turkey, Qatar and Egypt particularly. They have a lot of pull with Hamas, and we have not seen them use that influence properly to achieve the goals we've set.
- [56:45]
Mike Baker
Okay, and what is the. Again, I love speculation. What is the likelihood, from your experience, that that might happen?
- [56:55]
Mariam Waba
It all comes down to how Washington behaves. Right. The Trump administration has been incredibly effective in securing a ceasefire, a lasting ceasefire. We've seen a couple of them in the past administration and they were not so lasting. And I think it comes down to execution. What can the White House tell our Qatari allies, our Turkish allies, and our Egyptian allies to make sure that they do what they need to do? Let me not mince words here. We know that the Qataris and the Turks back Hamas. We know that they fund them. We know that they've armed them. We know that they've been involved in their training. But these are alleged US Allies, and they're not behaving like it. So we need to get serious about who our allies are. And if they're not behaving like the allies we call them and the benefits they reap as a result of being a US Ally, then should they be a US Ally? Yeah.
- [57:48]
Ryan Macbeth
Yeah.
- [57:49]
Mike Baker
Well, it's a very pragmatic approach, and so we'll see. I would love to have you back on that. We could. We could kind of focus on that question maybe in the. In the first part of our conversation, because I don't think the problem is going to get resolved anytime soon, which makes me sound, as always, very cynical. Mariam Waba, this has been really excellent, and I want to say thank you very much for taking the time. The foundation for defensive democracies. I appreciate them for saying, fine, you can chat with us. And so thank you very much for joining us today, and I hope you'll come back.
- [58:23]
Mariam Waba
Thank you, sir. I would love to.
- [58:25]
Mike Baker
Well, that is all the time. Like so many other things happening in the world, Today, there's a lot of complexity, right? And so I think it's excellent we have the chance to kind of break some of that down. If all you did was read the headline about the Muslim Brotherhood and what the White House just announced. Yeah, you're scratching the surface. So again, that's why we're here on the Situation Report. And you know what, though? That's all the time we have for this week's Situation Report. I know. Sad trombone in the background. I don't know if anybody does sad trombones. If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes, reach out to me at pdb@thefirst tv.com. right. Keep the law of cards and letters coming because we do love them and we do sit around the conference table on a monthly basis and try to select the best ones and then put them into an episode that we call Ask Me Anything. And so finally, to listen to the podcast ad free. Well, you can do that as well. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. i told you it was simple. And don't forget, you know, if. If you get a chance, tell your family and friends about our YouTube channel. It's on YouTube, of course. And all you got to do is find at President's Daily Brief. Tell a friend, tell your uncle, tell your family, tell your aunt around the Thanksgiving table.
- [59:46]
Ryan Macbeth
Right?
- [59:47]
Mike Baker
Ah, they'll be so grateful. I'm Mike Baker, and until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
- [60:10]
Mariam Waba
Hey, this is Sarah. Look, I'm standing out front of AM PM Right now, and, well, you're sweet and all, but I found something more fulfilling, even kind of cheesy. But I like it. Sure, you met some of my dietary needs, but they've just got it all. So farewell o meal so long, you strange soggy.
- [60:28]
Mike Baker
Break up with bland breakfasts and taste AM PMs bacon, egg and cheese biscuit made with K tree egg, smoked bacon and melty cheese on a buttery biscuit. AM P M. Too much good stuff.