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PDB Situation Report | October 11th, 2025: Will The Gaza Ceasefire Last? & U.S.–Venezuela Relations Hit a Breaking Point
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- [00:01]
A
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B
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage night, and let's get briefed. First up, after two years of war, Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire. This is a big deal, but key details remain, remain uncertain, and not everyone is convinced it will hold. We'll have more on that with Joe Trusman, research analyst at the foundation for Defense of Democracy's Long War Journal, later in the show. The standoff between Washington and Caracas is escalating fast. The Trump administration has now cut off all diplomatic efforts with the Maduro regime. Oh, signaling a sharp shift toward confrontation. We'll be joined by Andres Martinez Fernandez of the Heritage foundation for some insight into the growing tensions. But first, today's Situation report. Spotlight Israel and Hamas have reached a breakthrough agreement today, a phased ceasefire and a major hostage prisoner swap. Under the first phase, Hamas will free all remaining Israeli hostages and Israel will begin a partial military withdrawal from Gaza to a mutually agreed line. Now, the deal was brokered through intense negotiations in Sharm el Sheikh under US Egyptian and Qatari mediation. But key issues like disarmament of Hamas, that's a big one. Gaza's future governance and verification mechanisms remain unresolved and are likely to determine whether this truce holds. Joining us now to break it all down is Joe Trusman, research analyst at the foundation for Defense of Democracy's Long War Journal. Joe, thanks very much for joining us here on the PDB Situation Report.
- [02:19]
C
Appreciate you having me on.
- [02:20]
B
There is a lot to go over when it comes to this ceasefire agreement, but let's start at the, at the very top. Is this, how do you view this? Do you view this as a, as a, as a beginning of the end of the war and, you know, a road to peace? Or do you view it as just a very temporary and tenuous ceasefire?
- [02:49]
C
I think this is a, a pause in the conflict between Israel and Palestinian armed groups. I think for now, I think we will see, you know, hostages returned, prisoners exchange, a prisoner exchange and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and the IDF pulling back out of the Gaza Strip. But I think the key point here more than anything is that Hamas, at least the way I see it now, Hamas is going to stay in power. I don't think they're going to disarm, even though that was a, I think a key point in the, in the Trump plan. I just don't see any signs of that right now. So that's why I say this is a pause, because if Hamas continues to hold arms, right, it's going to regenerate, all right. It's going to continue doing what it's been doing over for more than 30, for about 30 years now, and that's wage war against Israel. So it's a pause. I think it's often called the hudna in Arabic, Korea, and at least in, in the Middle east, as far as this is concerned, as far as this conflict is concerned, it's a pause. So that's what I'm seeing. But, you know, it's, it's, it's, it is mutual but mutually beneficial for both parties here. Right. The hostages are coming home. And unfortunately, you know, Hamas also gets a respite here. But yeah, I see this as a, as a pause, unfortunately. And yes, I think there will be another conflict down the road. Whether that's a year or two from now, I couldn't tell you for sure, but it's going to happen, I'm pretty sure.
- [04:37]
B
What is your understanding of the process, the logistics as it stands right now? What's your understanding of the return of the hostages? I mean, obviously there's a transfer of Palestinian prisoners that's fairly straightforward. Frankly, a much more difficult process is the hostages, and I hate to sound gruesome, but particularly those that have been confirmed as dead. So what do you see? How, what, what's, what's the timeline and what is the process from, from what.
- [05:09]
C
You understand, right, so from what I understand is that Hamas will release the living, all of the living hostages, which is reported to be 20 of them, in the next 72 hours, give or take a few hours. So, so the next 72 hours sometime, whether it's Friday, Saturday, Sunday, maybe even actually, it would probably be closer either Saturday, Sunday or Monday, because of course, Israel is ahead of, ahead of us in time right now. But nevertheless, 20 hostages will be released all in, you know, it may be, you know, it may be separated as far as a few hours. You know, five of them will be released and then another batch will be released. But it'll be quick. Unlike previous hostage ceasefire, ceasefires where hostages were released, where they were released in phases. Now, as far as the, the ones who have been killed, that's going to be, that's different. We don't know exactly yet when that's going to happen. Hamas, at least according to some reports, Hamas has said that they need to find these, these deceased hostages. Right. And yes, that does sound gruesome. But I will say this, unfortunately, I've had the task to, over the last two years viewed many of these gruesome October 7th videos, most of the, most of the ones that have been made public and some that have not been made public. And I'll tell you that when they were Hamas and its allies were taking civilians hostage and of course soldiers as well. I noticed something that is very chaotic, it was very unorganized. I don't think they realized that they were going to be able to take so many hostages in this attack. So it doesn't surprise me that there may be the bodies of hostages scattered in Gaza. And, and I don't mean to sound crude here, but this is the reality. So it takes time for Hamas to find it, find them.
- [07:26]
B
I assume part of the problem also is, I think people think about this in sort of a, sort of a cut and dried manner, a black and white manner. You know, Hamas is holding the hostages, right? And they're, and there they are. They're all the living are, are in one location. But that doesn't seem to be the case. It seems as if there was Hamas, there were criminal elements, perhaps Islamic Jihad, and so they were fairly dispersed. And I mean, am I wrong in saying that Hamas may not have a clue where some of the remains of hostages are located?
- [08:03]
C
That may be possible and it's horrible to say, but as you said, other elements, Islamic Jihad for example, and civilians too, actually, or so called civilians, also took hostages. So, so that is definitely a possibility here. So they need time to find these hostages. Now they may know where they all are, but it's just not publicly known to us at least now. Nevertheless, nevertheless, there are about 48 hostages in total, including living. I believe that they still remain in the Gaza Strip. So it's going to take time to find them. Hopefully once, once Hamas finds them and returns them, I think the next phase of the ceasefire deal will go into effect where the Israelis begin to pull back completely out of the Gaza Strip. Because right now they're pulling back some, but not out of all the Gaza Strip.
- [08:58]
B
It looks as if, I mean these from, from reports that, that we've seen here at the pdb, it looks as if they're Pulling back and essentially ceding a little over half of, of the strip in terms of pulling back to this yellow line, or however they're referring to it, the withdrawal boundary. What, what do you, what do you say about what the. From the outset, the, the objective, according to Netanyahu was to destroy Hamas to make sure that this could never happen again, which has been part of this, this, this laser focus on the issue of disarmament. Right. You can't keep Hamas in place. They can't reconstitute, as you pointed out at the beginning. But the reality is that it looks like we're, we're kind of threading that, that, and we're going to end up with a Hamas that is still breathing, refuses to talk about disarmament, and it seems, you know, determined to play some role in the governance. So I take your point saying that this is, this is a temporary pause as good as it is, because, you know, if, if you can get the hostages, both living and dead, back, but if we, if we kind of play this out down the road a little bit, say the hostages are returned power, the Palestinian prisoners are exchanged, fine, but you have Hamas still there. From your perspective, what's the current condition of Hamas? I mean, we hear a lot about how they, you know, the leadership has been decimated, et cetera, et cetera, the number of fighters that have been killed. But have you heard anything that, that sounds credible in terms of the actual fighting capabilities and strength of Hamas at this point?
- [10:48]
C
Right, yeah, that's, that's very important. Of course, as you mentioned, dead fighters, their upper echelons of their, you know, of, of the group's high command, for example, have been decimated. But some, some of the things I've noticed as well about Hamas, and actually not only Hamas, but other organizations that act under it that are armed in the Gaza Strip. Obviously, we've already mentioned as a Palestinian Islamic Jihad, but there are about six or seven other Palestinian armed groups, course, much smaller than Hamas, Hamas, much smaller than Islamic Jihad, but that they act as a support for Hamas, and they've been very active in the Gaza war and on October 7. Now, I would say that all these groups, especially Hamas, yes, they've been decimated, leadership's been decimated. Commanders, foot soldiers that used to do that were there pre October 7th. A lot of them, thousands, I believe, are dead. Okay, that's, you know, for the Israelis, that's, that's good. But, you know, there's some other things that I've noticed too. For example, at the first weeks first months of the war, Palestinian armed groups, especially Hamas, were firing dozens of rockets at a time. And throughout the day, for weeks on end, most of them targeted southern Israel near the Gaza border. But, you know, at times there was fire against central Israel, against Tel Aviv, as far as Jerusalem, for example. And we don't see that anymore. It's, you know, I think the last one was that was a long range rocket or considered a long range rocket was against Tel Aviv, and that was months ago. So that tells me that Hamas's capability to launch rockets or long range rockets has been diminished considerably. Not only that, short range rockets too, the ones that caused a lot of problems for the communities near the Gaza border. We barely see rocket fire from the Gaza Strip down. That's good. So I think that's changed. But you know, they, Hamas and its allies in the Gaza Strip, they know how to manufacture these weapons and they're going to continue doing that. Once the ceasefire goes into effect and hostages are released and they get their prisoners and the IDF is out of the Gaza Strip, they're going to go back to their old ways. That's the problem. Yes, there's going to be new faces, right? New commanders, maybe a new head of the organization of the Gaza Strip. But you know, it's, we're just going to see this cycle start all over again. And unfortunately, you know, Hamas has learned this time, they've learned from work and they're going to change things a little bit and probably get smarter. They're going to dig more tunnels, they're going to manufacture more rockets and attempt to smuggle more weapons in to regenerate what they have lost over 10 years of battle. So yes, honestly, honestly, if they, if.
- [14:04]
B
They dig more tunnels, that whole Gaza Strip's going to collapse, I don't think.
- [14:09]
C
Right.
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B
They really don't have much more they can do underground. Listen, Joe, I want to pick up on, on a couple of, of those, those points you just raised, the kind of the idea of rearming and also how they view how Hamas views this, this ceasefire. But before we do that, we've got to take a quick break, so if you stick around. We'll be right back with Joe Trusman from the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Stay right there. And we'll be back here with a situation report before you know it. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here, BDB host and also known globally as a fashion icon. Did you know that? So let me give you a valuable tip on clothing. And of course I'm talking about the Terrific company, True Classic. Let me tell you about these guys. The fellas at True Classic started with a simple mission. To bring premium comfortable clothing to the masses. Because looking and feeling great shouldn't come with a designer price tag. And clearly the people have agreed. True Classic is sold over, get this, 25 million shirts to more than 5 million customers. And I've got a bunch of them too. And racked up over 200,000 five star reviews. This brand is about helping guys show up every day with confidence and purpose. Their shirts fit where they should, they feel incredible and they don't break the bank. You get that tailored look without sacrificing comfort or blowing your budget. Now, I've been wearing True Classic shirts for a while now and you can feel the difference the moment you throw one on. Their stuff looks, feels and fits great. Forget overpriced designer brands and skip the cheap throwaway stuff. True Classic is built for comfort, built to last and built to give back. You can find them on Amazon, Target, Costco, Sam's Club or, or just head to trueclassic.com PDB to try them out for yourself and Doug Limu and I always tell you to customize your car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. But now we want you to feel it. Cue the emu music, Limu.
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B
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Now joining me once again is Joe Trusman of FDD's Long War Journal. We've been talking all things related to the the ceasefire agreement. And Joe, I, I guess this, this question is going to sound odd, perhaps, but how do you think Hamas views this ceasefire? Do they view it as a victory? Do they view it as surrender, as capitulation? Do they view it as just simply something necessary for Their future survival. What do you think?
- [17:53]
C
I don't think they view it as a surrender. Throughout the war, especially in the last, say, six months or so, Hamas has been extremely stuck to its guns. And what I mean by that is that they said, okay, Israel, for us to end, for, for the war to end or for us to accept a ceasefire. Hamasa said, we will do a hostage exchange or prisoner exchange. We will, we, we're, we can do a, a change in governance as far as who will run the Gaza Strip politically. Okay, they, they mentioned those things and some other stuff as well. And a lot of that, what we're seeing now, the hostage exchange, the IDF pulling back, for example, the aid as well, that's, that's going to start coming into the Gaza Strip. That's all happening. So that's what Hamas has said that they wanted. So I think they may have not gotten everything, of course, that they wanted, but I think they're going to be happy or at least satisfied. I think that's the better term to use here with this ceasefire deal. Again, as I said earlier, they never said that they were going to disarm, okay? And so far, at least of today, they, they haven't. And nor do I think they will disarm. So that's, that's very important for them. So, yes, you know, through this whole war, biggest thing for Hamas was survival. To survive what the IDF was the IDF operation, because I don't think they realized when they planned the October 7th attack that the IDF would go as far as they did, as it did, rather that this war would last two years. Now, can you say in hindsight, would Hamas have thoughts, sad second thoughts of doing the October 7th attack if they knew how the IDF was going to respond? Which I couldn't answer that for you, but nevertheless, it was about survival for Hamas. I don't think their priority wasn't the Palestinian civilians that were going through hell for two years. It was, it was themselves, it was the organization. It had to remain functional, and it is now, and it will be after this ceasefire deal, I think. And so I think they're satisfied. Yeah, they're bruised. Yeah, they're hurt. Their allies are hurt, for sure. Iran is hurt, Hezbollah is hurt. But they survived. So I think that's the most important thing for them.
- [20:32]
B
Well, speaking of Iran, I'm glad you mentioned them. The Shin Bet just talked over the past couple of days about an operation that they were conducting, or have been conducting, where they busted up a weapon smuggling effort run by the irgc, the Revolutionary Guard corps from the Iranian regime in an effort to try to smuggle weapons. And a sizable cache was, was, was picked up by, by the Israelis through Syria and Jordan, which Jordan has a fairly porous border right now, and then into the West Bank. So the idea of let's, it's, it's get these weapons into the west bank, who knows what they were thinking after that. Which I guess is a rambling way for me to say that to your point, it's a pause. Hamas will, if all things stay relatively the same as they are currently will reconstitute because it's in Iran's best interest to have them reconstitute. They've been a very important part of their proxy network. Am I wrong about that?
- [21:41]
C
Oh no, absolutely. Hamas is the, one of the main actors in the Iran led axis of resistance. Right. And it was very important for Iran for, for Hamas to survive this war. I mean you got, you had Hezbollah involved for more than a, for more than a year defending or assisting Hamas and then the Houthis of course, and then you have the Iraqi militia groups firing rockets at the Israelis as well. So yeah, Hamas is very important. But to your point, as far as for the west bank, for example, before, a couple of years before, before the war, or for a couple of years before the war started in 2023, the West bank was on fire. And what I mean by that is that armed groups in the west bank that were loyal to, to Iran, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and others, they were receiving a lot of smuggled weapons and mostly firearms, but nevertheless they were manufacturing I E T. And now this recent operation that you mentioned is very concerning because what the Israelis found wasn't just, you know, pistols and rifles. They found rocket launchers, they found claymore mines, they found explosive laden drones. And this is, this stuff you don't see in the west bank. You see it in, you may see it in Gaza, not in the West Bank. So these are, they're often termed game changing weapons. Okay. That would, those type of weapons in the west bank would cause significant damage. So point being here is that Iran, despite the war in June with the Israelis, despite the war with, in Gaza and the Israeli operation in the west bank that started in January of this year, Iran is still trying to arm its, its, its network of proxies and clients in the West Bank. They want to keep that front against Israel open and active.
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B
That's what the, Yeah, I, I had this crazy theory, Joe, this wild eyed theory that says you'll never have long term stability or peace as long as the Iranian regime, as long as the mullahs and the IRGC remain in charge in Iran. Now that's not the same as saying, you know, I'm calling for a regime change. I'm saying I, I think the Iranian people themselves need to, you know, finally step up and say, enough's enough. You know, we, we, you know, just. But that's, that's been along for, you know, holy grail on the part of the west that somehow they, internally there would be a, you know, a revolt against some mullahs and then irgc. I don't know that that is ever going to happen. But that's, that's my theory is that everything else is just putting lipstick on a pig.
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C
Right.
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B
You can have these. I agree with temporary peace deals. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I'm sure. Yeah. Anyway, maybe, maybe my analogy is not a good one, but. So let me ask you this, and this is a simplistic question, I realize, but is there, is there one issue, is there one concern, one point that will determine whether this ceasefire holds?
- [25:16]
C
If the hostages, all of the hostages are returned, the ceasefire will hold. I think it will. Now if, let's say there's a missing hostage or something happens, then I start getting concerned. But I think both parties here, either the Israelis, they, they, they want to see this through, even though it's not, at least in my point of view, they're not getting everything that they wanted. I think they want to see this through. Hamas, I think, wants to see this through as well because it needs to recover. So, so I think both parties, every party involved here wants, wants us to work. But, you know, things happen. This is the Middle east, this is war. So I think if something happens with the hostages, doesn't matter if it's the live, the ones that are living or the ones that have been killed or that are deceased, one is not returned for whatever reason or if there is a delay in returning them, I think that it'll, it'll cause some, some big problems and we may see a collapse of the ceasefire. But that's, I think the, the, the biggest concern I have for this cease fire deal if, if it were to follow through for whatever reason. But I don't think it will.
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E
Yeah, yeah, no, I, and I, and I agree.
- [26:42]
B
I think I'm in complete agreement with what you're saying about Hamas. Looking at this as we've survived while we have to do is, is return the hostages and we've survived, and I'm sure there are some fairly hard and fast Statements within the proposal with the agreement that talks about cessation of hostilities, Israel not going back in, and you know, resuming the, the conflict once they get the hostages back. Joe, I gotta tell you something. I, I really appreciate your insight here and I, I'd love to have you back on in the very near future because I think we'll find out to your point, I think we'll find out whether this holds at least for the short term here, probably within the next few days in terms of the hostage release and Palestinian prisoner transfer situation. But Joe Trusman of the foundation for Defense and Democracies, when we call you the next time, I hope you'll pick up the phone and, and then when we have you on, I'm going to ask you what's up with that football over your shoulder there? That's in the case.
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C
Oh, yeah, absolutely. More than excellent to talk. Thank you.
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B
Cool.
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F
Bad.
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B
Listen, thank you very, very much for stopping by. That's Joe Truism of the foundation for Defense of Democracies with very, very important development. Two years of conflict kick started by Hamas's barbaric 7 October attacks two years ago on Israel. You know, we can all hope that it, it comes to an end and that we do get something resembling a longer term peace out of all of this. But there are a lot of points left to resolve, most notably as, as Joe was pointing out, the disarmament issue for Hamas, future governance issues as well. So. All right, there we go. Up next, the Trump administration just cut off diplomatic efforts with the Maduro regime. Remember Nicolas Maduro? Yeah, we've been talking about him here at the pdb, ending months of quiet negotiations. Now Andres Martinez Fernandez from the Heritage Foundation's Allison center for National Security joins us to explain. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, good values, a strong foundation legacy. Those things don't happen by accident. They're built and reinforced day by day, often around the family dinner table. And that's why I'm proud to work with and buy from Trails premium beef. But they're a fifth generation ranching family out of Texas. No corporate middlemen, no suits. Just a family of ranchers raising cattle and doing business the right way. And right now they've got their autumn butcher block on offer. It's two chuck roast for those slow cooked family meals, four New York steak strips for the grill and ground beef for the weekend and weeknight staples. And they're throwing in stew meat for free. It's beef built for the season. And look, it's about more than just food. It's about knowing where your food comes from, about supporting family ranching and feeding your family. Right. Check it out while it's still available@tribe.com PDB Again, that's tribe.com PDB hey there.
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G
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Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. The standoff between Washington and Caracas is escalating fast. The Trump administration has officially ended all diplomatic contact with the Maduro regime, instructing special envoy Richard Grinnell to shut down months of back channel talks. Now, at the same time, as we reported here on the pdb, US Naval forces have stepped up operations in the Caribbean and continue targeting vessels allegedly tied to Venezuela's drug trafficking networks. With diplomacy off the table and military pressure mounting, both sides now appear to be bracing for confrontation because that's what 2025 needed, more confrontation. For more on this, let me bring in Andres Martinez Fernandez. He's the senior policy analyst for Latin America in The Heritage Foundation's Allison center for National Security. Andres, thanks very much for joining us here on the PDB Situation Report.
- [32:32]
C
Thanks for having me, Mike.
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B
If diplomacy is off the table, as the White House has said and Secretary Rubio said, then what does that mean? What's, what's the end game here, do you think, with Venezuela?
- [32:48]
E
Well, I think what the change as far as the approach and this kind of withdrawal of the diplomatic so called effort with Venezuela is really just a recognition of the reality of what the Maduro regime is, which is a mendacious criminal organization that has just latched on to organs of control and government in Venezuela. And you don't get to an end state where there's peace and stability in our hemisphere, where this regime remains in power, continues to weaponize migration and narco trafficking against the United States. What we're seeing President Trump and Secretary Rubio and this administration do, I think is bring to bear real pressure against this regime. And that's something that they've, for a long time the Maduro regime has survived by playing games with the international community, telling lies, doing fake negotiations and gathering these kind of resources from the oil relief, oil sanctions relief rather, that have allowed him to buy loyalty from a very small segment of the military and maintain control. I think what the, the end state here is, you know, we, we have an elected government once again in Venezuela which we haven't had for, for quite a, quite a while, at least not in elections that anyone recognizes as legitimate.
- [34:35]
B
Well, okay, now first of all, you know, good use of the word mendacious. You, you couldn't see it while you were talking, but I was busy googling the definition of mendacious. So, so you win today's PDB Situation Report Vocabulary award. But let's talk about, let's talk about that election process. I, how this is gonna. I guess I'm stacking this question, but with Maduro the last election, how free and fair was it?
- [35:10]
E
Oh well, I mean, he essentially hand selected his opponent and put great restrictions in the ability of the opposition candidate to, to operate targeted opposition activists and voters in harassment with using security forces and other criminal activities. There was no real guarantee of free speech. In fact, a proactive use of state violence against the exercise of free speech. It was not anything that we would recognize in this country or in the west as a free and fair election. But it's, for some reason they went forward with this fraud and I think it was enough to buy him from some more, less honest actors in the international community, enough to buy him some breathing room. But that's clearly not the case anymore. And with this administration, the Trump administration is calling out this regime for what it is, which is again a criminal regime that has no legitimate claim to power there.
- [36:32]
B
So They've got a $50 million bounty on Maduro's head basically for information leading to his location and arrest. And we've got a significant naval presence now in the Caribbean basically under the auspices of counternarcotics operations. And Maduro is using all of that. Right. As evidence that the US Intends to overthrow Venezuela to start conducting operations, you know, on the ground. There's highly speculative question, I realize that, but that's what I specialize in. Where do you think is, is, is that, is that in the realm of the possible? I mean, we're hearing about other military deployments in the area. If you were going to make a move from an operational perspective to pick up a high value target, we seem to be putting all the chess pieces in place. Where do you see this going?
- [37:38]
E
Yeah, certainly this requires a lot of speculation. Yeah, I think this administration is clearly keeping all options on the table when it comes to the security of our hemisphere and the homeland. This regime being a direct threat to both those. As far as what the administration is willing to do or likely to do, I think for now there, there's certainly a focus on again providing a base level of security against particularly the, the weaponization of narcotics and other illicit flows coming from this regime. Whether that is going to move into a next phase where we're instead of going after the shipment of this illicit activity and going at the source, I think it's still an open question. I think what the, what we may be seeing right now is, is an effort to exacerbate some of the fissures in the regime and the Maduro's loyalty, which is really, it's been fractured for quite a while and it survived through, really, it's impressive to see how it survived through all these challenges, but I think it's, it's the kind of house of cards that the only reason it remains is because it really hasn't been pressed against in a significant way. And that's where we are seeing a change in the way the administration is approaching it. And that may open up those fissures and see someone taking advantage within the regime. Again, this being a criminal organization where violence and, and power struggles have basically defined its, its reality for, for several years, maybe seeing that expand beyond what the dictator Nicolas Maduro can control, maybe that leads to his ouster. I Think that's likely what one of the factors also the, the other factor is, you know, social unrest and the, the public response within Venezuela. Maudo has been unpopular for, since basically since he came into power, but he has almost no real public support beyond a very fringe minority which subsists off of public support. And so what we've seen in the past is protest activity that has really been dramatic in Venezuela. We haven't seen that return in the past few months, but we may see that be one of the consequences of people once again seeing the weakness of this regime within Venezuela and seeing an opening. And that's the kind of thing that could also exacerbate some of those fissures in Mahouta support.
- [40:43]
B
If he's, if he's that unpopular with the public, then I assume what that means is basically he's holding on to power through his ability to control the, the military. Right. And whatever intel apparatus they have and, and, and the police there in Venezuela. So how, how act. I mean do we have credible insight intelligence on the, the loyalties of the military towards Maduro at this stage? Have you seen anything that, that, you know, other than speculation?
- [41:22]
E
Yeah, I mean this has been years long kind of struggle and there's certainly been over that time a number of defections from the regime, including high level defections from the security forces and intelligence apparatus there. And many of those folks have come to the United States and have been cooperating with the DEA with provision of insight information which has been very important and helpful. More recently we've also seen reports of that fissure and the lack of support within Venezuela. I think in part this whole exercise of support, of public exercise of national defense which, which the Venezuelan regime called the other day. I think that also which had a kind of mass mobilization in mind, but was very pretty, pretty pathetic as far as actual turnout and what the military was able to show as far as strength and, and really exhibited just the weakness of the regime generally. But the military in particular, what, what it's, you know, the challenge with, for, for the regime is that, and its military is that it has really over the past several years turned primarily into a narco trafficking outfit. Rather than being a traditional military that is focused on defense of their territory and maintaining their institutions, it's really just a profit generating an illicit revenue generating entity which has enriched primarily those at the top of the, of the Venezuelan military. So particularly as you go further down, there is quite a bit of upset and discontent within the ranks.
- [43:20]
B
Okay, yeah, I want to pick up on that. If I could. But first, address. We're going to take a, a quick break so if you'll stay right there, don't go anywhere. We have to take a quick timeout and then we'll be back with more of the PDB situation report. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time, if I could, to talk about your personal finances. Now you've probably heard, I'm sure, that the Fed has finally dropped interest rates and that is great news for American homeowners. As you know, expenses have been a major burden on families, wages are flat, prices keep climbing, and for many, look, the only way to make ends meet has been to lean on credit cards. But that cycle of high interest debt, it makes it hard to stay ahead. If you're a homeowner, I want you to call my friends over at American Financing. Right now interest rates have dropped. Many homeowners are seeing options in the low fives. Compare that to credit cards, charging rates in the twenties or even higher. There's an easy path to see how you can finally put your hard earned equity to work for you. American Financing can help you pay off that expensive debt, free up your cash flow and keep your budget under control. Their salary based mortgage consultants are saving customers an average of $800 a month. And if you get started today, you may even be able to delay your next mortgage payment. Take control. Call American Financing today the number 866-885-1881. Again, that's 866-885181. Or just visit American Financing.
- [44:52]
I
I'm Piers Morgan, the host of the Piers Morgan Uncensored podcast. We do big interviews and we do big debates about whatever's getting people talking. We make news, we make noise and we make a little bit of trouble too. Come and see what all the fuss is about. You can listen to Piers Morgan uncensored on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [45:14]
C
Us.
- [45:17]
D
No newspaper is more iconic than the New York Post. So why not start your day with me telling you our best stories? I'm Caitlyn Becker, host of the New York Postcast. Every weekday morning I'll break down the headlines that matter to you and the stories you're going to want to talk to your friends about. It's a mix of politics, business, pop culture, basically everything you expect from the New York Post. Ask your smart speaker speaker to play the NY Postcast podcast, listen and subscribe on Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [45:49]
B
Welcome Back to the PDB situation report. Joining me once again is Andres Martinez Fernandez, the Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America at the Heritage Foundation's Allison center for National Security. Andres, thanks very much for, for sticking around. What I wanted to pick up on, if I could, is the, the question of evidence of intel that corroborates the allegations that Nicolas Maduro himself is, is heavily involved in narco trafficking and cartel operations there in Venezuela. Can we talk about that just for a little bit? I'm just curious from your perspective, how solid is the evidence? How solid is the intel? Because I think the, the White House, the Trump administration could probably be doing itself a favor by, to the degree as possible without releasing sources and methods being a little bit more transparent to share some of that insight.
- [46:42]
E
Yeah, I think there's, there's a mountain of evidence that's been accumulated over the years of, of the regime's direct involvement in narco trafficking. And again, as I mentioned, a big source of that has been actual regime officials who have defected and fled to the United States and elsewhere, sharing information about how the Venezuelan military has become directly involved in the management of narco trafficking, naming names and identifying as much even bank account information and other methods for laundering of illicit funds, which primarily seems to go through these public entities, formerly government institutions, now essentially drug trafficking organizations and entities within, within Venezuela. You also have seen with, within the US when we are able to get our hands or in Europe on some of these regime officials who, who have been arrested. We've been able to, for example, we had the prosecution of Mahuro's own nephews for narco trafficking to the United States, which again revealed the direct links of not only the regime, but Maduro himself to narco trafficking and again, other officials who we've managed through cooperation with partner nations to arrest and prosecute at different levels. And you know, we've been able to identify quite a bit about just how directly involved the regime is in all of this activity. And all this has been revealed again over a series of many years. I think the reality is if you don't recognize that the regime is essentially a narco trafficking activity organization, you just haven't looked at what has been publicly available for, for years and years.
- [48:54]
B
Yeah, I think, I mean, I take your point and I think that's absolutely correct. I guess I would like to see, you know, because it is a concern, right? The general public in the U.S. they see, you know, as deploying a variety of, you know, fairly high powered military assets to the region. They see, you know, the strikes on the various narco vessels that have been hit over the past few weeks. And I think the administration from a messaging perspective could probably be doing themselves a bit more of a favor because, you know, they keep saying this. I don't think the public's not out there independently gathering information about, about Venezuela and Maduro and his narco trafficking activities. But I think the, the, from the White House perspective, hey, how about we, we get some of that information out there right now to help explain what it is that is going on again, without, without revealing sources and methods, of course. But let me ask you this. If I could. If, if all of this activity in the region does somehow convince Maduro's close confidants or, you know, his supporters in the military to turn on him, then what.
- [50:15]
E
As far as what comes next in Venezuela if Maduro is ousted for power, you know, there, there is an opposition leader who has had the legitimacy of the support of the opposition for, you know, quite a while. And it's talking here specifically about Maria Karina Machado. She, she was one of the people and the main person who was prohibited from running in the elections against Maduro despite the fact that she won overwhelmingly in the only real vote that was seen, which was a primary vote that went outside of the regime's public control entities and therefore is much more trustworthy as far as the results that it showed. And it showed overwhelming support for her. She then threw her support behind another candidate who was essentially a stand in and that candidate won overwhelmingly by all reports. Of course, the regime offered these false numbers which were almost comical. They divided out exactly to one decimal point when you're talking about millions of votes, which is kind of pretty, pretty much impossible. But, but he, he won overwhelmingly by all reports. So, so there's clearly an opposition that is the logical transition at least to post Maduro regime space. You know, then what comes after that is fully restoration of elections and, and, and restoration of these core government institutions which have been corrupted for really decades.
- [52:12]
B
I mean, I, that would be the best case scenario for sure. Absolutely. I'm going to play devil's advocate because I'm such a cynical bastard and say that barring the US going in and picking up Maduro and then playing a direct role in bringing in the duly elected, the properly elected opposition to secure power, if that doesn't happen, then the likely scenario perhaps is that all the activity, the pressure on, on the regime causes some of his inner circle to flip, to turn on him. And I guess my cynical nature says that those Individuals have benefited from being in the inner circle for material and they're not likely at that point to turn around and say Marina Karina Machado should come in or the duly elected government should come in and clean house because they, they're part of the garbage. So yeah, I don't know. It's not, there's not really a question in there. I'm just, I'm just wondering what your response is. No, yeah, I mean there would and.
- [53:25]
E
There have been a lot of discussions around possible amnesty for particularly some of these officials that have for a very long time supported the regime and including in criminal and illicit activities. I think there's a recognition even from what some would say are the more hard line opposition actors in Venezuela that there would have to be some compromise with respect to that kind of amnesty for those folks. The priority being again a restoration of democratic control in Venezuela. You know, these are, these are all possibilities as far as how, how that would that transition would work. Certainly I think them maintaining power wouldn't, wouldn't be in the cards. But that doesn't necessarily mean that what should be seen as far as the full justice for, for all of these support cogs for the regime is, is realized. But it does mean at least hopefully a restoration of democracy.
- [54:33]
B
Yeah, yeah, no, I appreciate that and I appreciate that also the, the optimism. I suspect we'll know here in the not too distant future where this may be going. It just seems like that, you know, the pot's on boil right now and we certainly have a lot of assets in in place and again $50 million as a reward for information leading to his arrest. You have to wonder whether his executive protection detail is is heard about that or not. I'm just, I think they watched the situation report so I just pointed that out. I gotta tell you address this has been very, very, very informative and we really appreciate your, your insight here at the Situation report. I, I, I'd love to have you back on here in the, in the not too distant future because I do think we'll be talking about this for some time and I do think we're going to be seeing some developments down there if I don't miss my guess. But Andres Martinez Fernandez Heritage foundation thank you again for joining us here on the Situation Report. Man thank you.
- [55:40]
E
It's been a pleasure.
- [55:42]
B
Excellent. Thanks so much. We'll see you next time. Well that is all the time. This something more interesting than talking about regime change is there? Well okay, fine of course there is. That's all the time we have for the PDB Situation Report. If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes or limericks, just reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com you know what we do? Once a month, everybody gathers around the very expensive Mahogany Conference Room table at the PDB Secret Lair and we pull out some of the best questions and comments and we smush them all together into a monthly episode that we call Ask Me Anything. So that means keep your cards and letters coming. Now to listen to the podcast of the show ad free. And you can do that, and you can do it very simply. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDB Premium. See, it's that simple. I'm Mike Baker and until next time, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
- [56:52]
A
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