PDB Situation Report | October 17th, 2025: Russia’s Economy Buckling Under Ukraine Drone Strikes & Taiwan Braces for What’s Next

Summary

The President's Daily Brief: Situation Report

Episode Date: October 18, 2025
Host: Mike Baker
Guests: Jason J. Smart (Kiev Post Correspondent), Buck Sexton (Former CIA Analyst, Co-host of Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show)

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Overview

In this episode of The President’s Daily Brief: Situation Report, host Mike Baker explores two urgent global flashpoints:

1. The mounting economic crisis in Russia as a result of Ukraine’s drone campaign against oil refineries.
2. China’s intensifying military maneuvers around Taiwan and the island’s race to bolster its defenses.

Expert guests Jason J. Smart and Buck Sexton provide ground-level analysis, unpacking the strategic consequences for Moscow, Beijing, and US interests.

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Segment 1: Russia’s Economy Buckling Under Ukrainian Drone Strikes

(00:29 – 24:44)

Key Points

• Ukraine’s Strikes on Russian Oil Refineries

  • Ukrainian long-range drone attacks have reportedly sidelined up to 40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity.
  • The refinery attacks have resulted in significant fuel shortages across Russia, especially in western regions and occupied territories like Crimea.
  • Losses trigger budget crises, plunging state revenues, and cause fissures among the Russian elite.

• Economic Impacts in Russia

  • Russia faces runaway inflation, liquidity crises in the banking sector, and widespread financial hardship.
  • Half of employed Russians are now looking for a second job to cover basic expenses.

• Signs of Instability

  • The Kremlin has responded with internal purges, seizing oligarch assets, and arresting numerous military officials.
  • Recent protests in St. Petersburg, where crowds invoked the symbolism of Swan Lake (recalling the 1991 USSR coup), suggest growing anti-war and anti-Putin sentiment.

Notable Quotes

• On the refinery campaign:
  “About 58 different facilities have been struck. It’s about 40% of the oil refining capacity of Russia that's been destroyed… Russia today is having shortages of gasoline and diesel throughout the entire country.”
  — Jason J. Smart [02:45]

• On Russia’s economic stress:
  “About half the population looking for a second job—that’s usually pretty bad.”
  — Jason J. Smart [03:23]

• On corruption and elite infighting:
  “You do not make general in the Russian military unless you’re engaged in corruption… So when you’re choosing who goes up the ranks below you, it’s also people who helped you engage in corruption.”
  — Jason J. Smart [06:34]

• On public resistance possibility:
  “I don’t think there’ll be a red revolution in Russia… but if you look at the history of when coups occur… the one thing you look for is whether the population is generally aligned with what you’re trying to do.”
  — Jason J. Smart [09:33]

• On Putin’s vulnerability:
  “Putin ultimately was someone who was sort of like a cornerstone that kept the oligarchical base happy… Today that keystone is becoming rubbed away, and those oligarchs are getting closer and closer to clashing.”
  — Jason J. Smart [05:28]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Russia refinery strikes overview — [01:00 – 03:16]
• Economic & social breakdown — [03:16 – 04:47]
• Oligarch arrests, FSB purges — [04:47 – 07:50]
• Corruption in Russian command — [06:34 – 07:50]
• Fuel shortages hit Moscow & St. Petersburg — [08:16 – 09:22]
• Speculation on regime change — [09:22 – 11:51]

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Segment 2: U.S. Arms Policy, Tomahawk Missiles, and Putin’s Calculus

(14:22 – 24:44)

Key Points

• US-Ukrainian Defense Relations

  • There were expectations of the US providing Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, but recent signals from Donald Trump suggest a reversal.
  • The discussion covers the broader US policy of arms supplies, how intelligence cooperation could change the war, and how Russian perceptions shape negotiation possibilities.

• Perceptions of Trump in Moscow

  • Russian officials reportedly mock and disrespect Trump, considering him “easy to trick” and “desperate” for a Nobel Prize.
  • Both guests dismiss narratives of Trump being pro-Russian; instead, they argue he is transactional and overconfident in dealmaking capabilities with Putin.

Notable Quotes

• On Russian views of Trump:
  “It’s not a secret that the Russians despise him. They think he’s an idiot… This is seven days a week. They think he is a moron. It is that simple.”
  — Jason J. Smart [15:19, 17:18]

• On Tomahawks as a potential game-changer:
  “Tomahawks... are better than anything the Russians have ever had or ever will have. They would have been very helpful… Russia’s economy would go totally into free fall and it would be a matter of hours.”
  — Jason J. Smart [18:47]

Timestamps

• Trump, US arms to Ukraine, Russian assessment — [14:46 – 21:04]
• Discussion on Jake Sullivan’s national security approach — [21:04 – 21:45]
• Effectiveness and future of economic pressure on Russia — [21:46 – 23:07]
• Russian and Ukrainian casualty discussion — [23:07 – 24:40]

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Segment 3: Taiwan Braces for What’s Next

(27:21 – 49:29)

Key Points

• Chinese Military Escalation

  • China has dramatically increased “gray zone” operations: daily air incursions, amphibious landing drills, and military intimidation.
  • Beijing may be rehearsing for a blockade or invasion, sparking dire concerns in Taipei.

• Taiwan’s Defensive Preparations

  • Buck Sexton recently met with Taiwan’s president, vice president, and defense officials.
  • Taiwan is focusing on asymmetric “force multipliers”: advanced drones (including explosive swarming boat drones), rapid weapons production, and lessons adapted from the Ukraine conflict.
  • The central challenge: manufacturing enough high-tech defensive tools to counter China’s overwhelming numbers.

• China’s Strategic Calculus

  • There’s internal debate over whether the PLA’s moves are bluffs for leverage or a genuine buildup for action.
  • Sexton emphasizes that Taiwan’s fate is an existential issue for the CCP's narrative and for China’s global ambitions.

• US Policy: Strategic Ambiguity

  • The US maintains “strategic ambiguity”—refusing to clarify if it would directly defend Taiwan.
  • Delays in delivering US weapons to Taiwan stem from production constraints, in part because of ongoing commitments to Ukraine.

• Tech, Trade, and Global Impact

  • Taiwan manufactures 90% of top-end microchips, making its security vital for global tech and US economic security.
  • Sexton warns that letting China seize Taiwan would give Beijing immense power over the world’s supply of semiconductors and AI tech.

Notable Quotes

• On China’s intentions:
  “There’s no other possible military explanation for the massive buildup that they’re doing... the buildup has been accelerating in recent years.”
  — Buck Sexton [29:34]

• On Taiwan’s defensive strategy:
  “They have to have asymmetric force multipliers... weapon systems that rely on being smarter and being asymmetric, because in pure resources... it’s a big problem for the 23 million man Taiwanese island.”
  — Buck Sexton [31:13]

• On lessons learned from Ukraine:
  “It’s not just having the newest version... but can you make a thousand of them? Manufacturing at scale is what they’re looking at from Ukraine.”
  — Buck Sexton [33:25]

• On strategic ambiguity:
  “The policy is maybe we would, maybe we wouldn’t. That is our actual US government approach to a defense of Taiwan. We leave it as, we’re not saying we won’t, we’re not saying we will.”
  — Buck Sexton [45:11]

• On global consequences of a Chinese invasion:
  “If China seizes the capability that Taiwan has to make these semiconductors... they can choke off our tech economy overnight.”
  — Buck Sexton [48:14]

Timestamps

• China’s ramp-up and Taiwan’s view — [27:21 – 31:06]
• Asymmetric, drone-based defense strategies — [31:13 – 33:06]
• Lessons from Ukraine, Taiwan’s manufacturing — [33:25 – 35:48]
• Chinese intentions and CCP narrative — [35:48 – 38:25]
• US arms supply, strategic ambiguity — [41:21 – 46:09]
• Taiwanese public anxiety (“Zero Day” show) — [46:13 – 47:15]
• China’s demographic & internal challenges — [47:15 – 48:14]
• Global technology impact; closing thoughts — [48:14 – 49:29]

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Memorable Moments & Humor

• On escaping Moscow as an oligarch: “That’s how I always flee a place—on my private jet.” – Mike Baker [00:58]
• On co-hosting order: “He’s older—way older. Age before beauty is how that goes.” – Buck Sexton, joking about why Clay Travis’s name comes first [29:02]
• On Russian generals & corruption: “You’re not going to be promoted unless you help your senior officer cover up corruption… Why does he need you if you’re not going to help in the business?” – Jason J. Smart [06:34]
• On strategic ambiguity: “The policy is maybe we would, maybe we wouldn’t. That is our policy.” – Buck Sexton [45:26]
• On Taiwan’s tech importance: “90% of the top end microchips, 50% of all global semiconductors, are microchips from Taiwan.” – Buck Sexton [41:49]

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Conclusion

This episode underscores the dire financial pressure mounting on Putin’s Russia—potentially a precursor to domestic upheaval—and Taiwan’s precarious position as China escalates its gray-zone pressure. The experts warn that the US and allies face monumental choices about how far to go in supporting frontline democracies. The fate of Ukraine and Taiwan, they argue, will have global implications for security, technology, and economic resilience for years to come.

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To hear more from Jason J. Smart, visit his YouTube Channel. To follow Buck Sexton, listen to the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show.

Transcript

[A]

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[D]

It's great to see you, Mike.

[A]

All right, let's. Let's start with a fairly broad question, and you can run this anywhere you want to. How much damage has Ukraine done to refining capacity for Russia?

[D]

Pretty substantial at this point. About 58 different facilities have been struck. It's about 40% of the oil refining capacity of Russia that's been destroyed. Overall, Russia today is having shortages of gasoline and diesel throughout the entire country, most especially in the western parts and especially in occupied territories such as Crimea. So today, Russia is in pretty bad shape. It is a country that is only known for exporting oil, but today it is not a country that even has sufficient gasoline for its own population.

[A]

40% is significant. Right. What is that doing more broadly to the Russian economy at the present time?

[D]

Well, the Russian economy is in pretty dire stakes. I mean, today the Russian economy is in a situation where it faces high inflation. It faces a central bank that's under control of the Kremlin. So it's not operating independently. So it's not making fiscally wise decisions for the future, debt ownership of the state. But also, we look at the banking sector. The banking sector is really low on liquidity. Common citizens are unable to take out the cash they have in banks. And these are all indicative of the fact that there is some serious problems. About 48%, 50% of Russians are that are currently employed are looking for a second job because their job does not cover their basic cost. So when you have about half the population looking for a second job, that's usually pretty bad.

[A]

At what point? This is pure speculation, but what point does all that equate to, you know, the citizens saying, enough's enough, let's get Putin out of here?

[D]

Well, they did have protests two days ago in St. Petersburg, which is very unusual. There is, There is. It's probably better to call them a group of young people, very large group, hundreds of people singing anti war songs and anti government songs, and also playing the song from Swan Lake, as you recall, in the Soviet Union collapse in 1991, during the coup, Swan Lake was played on national television across all of the Soviet Union. And the fact that that's coming back up as being a cultural reference is probably not a good sign for the Kremlin. Okay.

[A]

Have you heard anything about Putin's attitude, treatment, actions against the oligarchs?

[D]

So there have been some recent arrest of the oligarchs. There's also been the seizure of their assets. It's usually perceived to be more about the fsb, which is a security service of Russia trying to consolidate the amount of assets that there are in the country. There's not a lot of money going around these days, so they got to get money where they can. So try to squeeze the liquidity out of those oligarchs who are still left, remain standing.

[A]

Well, am I wrong in saying, look, an important part of Putin's power base has been the oligarchs, his ability to keep them on side in part by letting them do well?

[D]

Sure, absolutely. So the oligarchs, I would always argue that Vladimir Putin ultimately was somebody who was sort of like a cornerstone that kept the oligarchical base happy if he was the one who kept it all together. And today, though, as time passes, he has become more of a keystone. It all depends on him. And today that keystone is becoming rubbed away, and those oligarchs are getting closer and closer to clashing. We see that the FSB is taking sides, especially against oligarchs who are closer to the military. There's been 17 Russian generals arrested in the past three years. Fifteen of those generals are those who come from the background of logistics or from acquisitions. Why, those are important, or those are the ones that deal with finance. Now, in any given military, that's probably, what, I don't know, 25, 30% of the military is someone that works in logistics. But the fact of Russia, the fact that 15 out of 17 of those arrested are those that are coming from the background, there's also a sign that the FSB is trying to milk as much money out of them as they can.

[A]

Okay, yeah. And to what degree have you heard about, over the past, let's say, just again, three and a half years, Three years, concerns over corruption within the military, contracts, et cetera?

[D]

Well, corruption's, I mean, a significant problem in Russia, but that's the whole joke about it, though, is that everybody in the FSB understands that you do not make general in the Russian military unless you're engaged in corruption. You're not going to be promoted because, I mean, truthfully, it's. Your senior officer is not going to sign off and being promoted unless you help him cover up the corruption. The reason you got the promotion is because you're helping him in the business. Why does he need you if you're not going to help in the business? Well, you're going to report on him, you're going to squeal at him. Why would he possibly want to recommend you? And so when you're choosing who goes up the ranks below you, it's also people who helped you engage in corruption. So they all understand that everybody's engaged in corruption. The only question at this point is, why are they going after people that they are, if they have information about everybody, why are they selectively choosing who's prosecuted? But most importantly, is probably the general who just got arrested, who's in charge of promotions. Why the general so important is that he would be the one that has all the compromising material about everybody else and what they did or paid in order to get promoted, to get the assignments that they wanted. The military. He would have his little black ledger of exactly who it was that was engaging corruption with him. So the fact that it went for him is something that sort of shows that the FSB now has quite a significant amount of compromising material about other military officers.

[A]

To what degree have they been successful at this is going to sound strange, but at hiding the war from the urban centers. I'm thinking in particular St. Peter, Moscow, et cetera. But, and by that I mean, you know, to what degree have the problems, the fuel shortages and other issues been pushed out to the, the outer regions in an effort to keep the, the main population centers happy?

[D]

Well, it's reached the main centers as well. The fuel outages are not just limited to the regions. It's also reached the major cities. That being said, I mean, gasoline prices have increased about 50% in the past three or four months. There are some significant problems now within Russia itself. Historically, the weakest base for Vladimir Putin was Moscow, followed by St. Petersburg. That is his weakest support area.

[A]

Why is that?

[D]

You know, urban elites, liberal, higher education level, more well traveled, more international. They have a greater grasp of what's going on outside the country. People that live in the regions tend to be poor. Keep on. The average Russian makes about $900 a month. Pensions are a few hundred. Those people are not, you know, they don't have, you know, smartphones. They're, they're not scrolling the Internet, they're watching state television. So the people out in the regions just receive propaganda and believe it. But they're also the ones that are the least important ones in the society. They lack agency totally, whereas the ones in the capital one have capital, but secondly, they have social capital and the ability to create change or effect change. And so that the fact that they understand what's going on and they're not happy with it is not very good for the regime.

[A]

So where does that go again? I know that's speculation, but, you know, I, I thrive on speculative questions. Where does that go? If you follow it in its logical conclusion?

[D]

You know, ultimately, I don't think there'll be a red revolution in Russia where the people rise up against the regime. However, if we look at the history of when coups occur in countries just universally, Russia included, is that if you're about to overthrow a government violently, the one thing that you look for is to see is there going to be a counter revolution. Because the most dangerous part of any sort of coup is that somebody says, well, who chose you to be the new boss? We didn't vote for you. And so to make sure that to prevent that from happening, you have to see the populations generally aligned with what you're trying to do. Now, remember when Prigozhin rolled up towards Moscow with the leader of the Wagner group two years ago, we saw that the people came to his car and they brought him food, they brought him wine. The military leaders in Russia, in Rostov, came to meet with him. The generals sat there and drank coffee with him in the street and smoked cigarettes. They were not running away. They were a little bit nervous that he might actually take power. So the fact that the Russian people didn't resist him, the fact that the Russian military leadership didn't resist him, the fact that the leadership of Russia, whether it's Dmitry Medvedev, the former president, Kirill, the head of the Orthodox Church, they all disappeared. Nobody stuck up for Putin. Which is probably a good sign that if push comes to shove, people are willing to take a step over Putin and keep going onwards.

[A]

What would cause that shove? I mean, again, you're talking about fuel shortages, you're talking about a variety of problems within the economy, kind of a war, weariness, massive casualties over the past three and a half years. But, you know, if. If none of that has had any impact and Putin still got his grip on power, what would be that shove that's required?

[D]

I think that ultimately it's going to be less ideological, more just rational. I mean, I think game theory would indicate that we can all understand that Vladimir Putin turned 73 this past week. He is eventually going to expire. It's a matter of when. But you realize the other oligarchs, there is this friction, they're not getting along anymore. And you realize when some other oligarchical faction takes power in Russia, they're definitely going to have to kill you and your family and take all your assets. So if you recognize that day is eventually going to come, it's sort of unwise. Just wait for them to die naturally. The smarter thing is to just seize power because you realize you're getting ahead of it. Eventuality to just allow the chance or allow the circumstance to control the situation is probably the least strategically wise thing you can do. The wisest thing you can do is always control the situation that you're in.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, I take your point, Jason. Listen, being mindful of your time, if you could stay right there, we're going to have to take a quick, quick break. I'm going to be back with Jason J. Smart. He's in Kiev, by the way. So if you'll stick around, we'll be right back with more from the situation report. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now I'm sure you've heard that the Fed has finally dropped interest rates, right? And that's great news for American homeowners. Look, expenses have been a major burden on families. Obviously wages are flat, prices keep climbing. And for many, the only way to make ends meet is spent a lien on credit cards. But that cycle of high interest debt makes it hard to stay ahead. So if you're a homeowner, I want you to call my friends over at American Financing. Right now, interest rates have dropped. Many homeowners are seeing options in the low fives. Compare that to credit cards charging rates in the twenties or higher. There's an easy path to see how you can finally put your hard earned equity to work for you. American Financing can help you pay off that expensive debt, free up your cash flow and keep your budget under control. Their salary based mortgage consultants are saving customers an average of $800 a month. And if you get started today, you may even be able to delay your next mortgage payment. Take control. Call American Financing Today, the number 866-885-1881. Again, that number 8668851881 or just visit american financing.net.

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[A]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. And joining me once again is Jason Jay Smart. You can find his work on YouTube at Jason J. Smart. He comes to us from Kyiv. Jason, thanks very much for sticking around. Let's talk about something that made the headlines in a big way over the past week, and that would be the potential for the US to provide Tomahawk missiles to Kiev. What do you make of that?

[D]

Well, that looked like it was pretty set to go up until I, I saw just in the past hour that Donald Trump now is seemingly reneging on that and believes that perhaps the US doesn't have enough Tomak missiles for everybody and so perhaps will not be doing that any longer.

[A]

Yeah. And he's now making noises about meeting in Budapest in the coming weeks with Putin to talk about possible peace. Yeah. Do you think that's likely to go anywhere or is this just Putin being Putin and stringing it along?

[D]

Let's. Putin being Putin. And the fact is that the Russians have no respect for him. Even if you hear the way that they speak about him, it's with such a low regard. It's so obvious that they have this sort of mocking attitude towards him, which is once again surprising to me, is that we do have the entire US government are, what is it, 16 intelligence agencies and State Department who are all informing him. They read the Russian news. It's not a secret that the Russians despise him. They think he's an idiot. And why he would continue to think that it's something where they keep tapping them along, I have no idea. I really have no justification. I mean, the Russians are quite explicit about what they believe. This is not secret. I'm not a liberal. Just read the Russian news. It's quite obvious they think he's a moron.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. No, and, and, and one thing about Putin is, I've never looked at him as, as a cat. That's hard to read. Right. I mean, he's been pretty clear in the past about what he believes, what he wants, what he thinks. And so I, I mean, I, I agree with you. I've been confused in the way that President Trump has dealt with Putin and sort of this, what seems to be a very deep well of, of patience to try to find. And who knows, maybe down the road, maybe, you know, what he's doing is, you know, four dimensional chess and he's, you know, he's gonna eventually find an off ramp that, that Putin wants to take and that will be acceptable. But I'm a cynic. So I don't know if that's going to happen.

[D]

Well, I, I see no reason to believe it's going to happen at this point. It's. It's very clear that the Russians are taking advantage of the situation. They think that the United States as a whole is a country that's moving closer, it's decaying, greater, I should say, or faster than it had been before. They think that Donald Trump is. Yeah, and once again, I don't think that he's pro Russian. I think that the Russians do perceive him, though, to be just for their own purposes, somebody who's convenient because he's very easy to trick. They think he's just not very clever. I mean, they just frankly think he's dumb.

[A]

Yeah. Yeah. Well, I think I agree with you. Look, he's not, you know, this, this narrative that the left or, you know, the. However you want to refer to, that sort of the progressive media, the narrative that he's, you know, Putin's puppet, in which, you know, they slung around there for several years. And I don't buy that. I just think that he's. He's a very transactional individual, meaning President Trump, and he's always imagining that he can find a deal. But I don't know that he's ever dealt with an individual like Putin before.

[D]

Well, I don't think that Putin sees anything to gain in this. I think that he sees everything, again, quite the opposite. I think that he believes that Donald Trump is desperate to get a Nobel Peace Prize. He believes that he's desperate to achieve these personal goals of his own. And they believe that if they tap him along, he'll go with it, because they don't think that he ultimately gives a damn one way or another what happens to Europe or to what happens to Ukraine, for that matter. And so they believe that if they just tread him along, he'll go with it. And if you look at just the comments they made publicly, and once again, I said, watch Russian tv. This is seven days a week. There's no secret what they think. This is not the conspiracy. This is seven days a week. They think he is a moron. It is that simple.

[A]

Yeah. What was your thought on the Tomahawks? I mean, did you think that that was a solid idea? I don't want to shut the door on that yet. Who knows where it's going to go. And if he is strung along, then perhaps we're revisiting this issue later on. But at the point where it looked like it was going to be A done deal. What was your perspective on it?

[D]

Well, of course it's a positive. I mean, they are. Weapons are typically fired from a water base. They're far from ships. That being said, there are other ways to get them off. But I think is more interesting was the intelligence sharing that was probably going to go along with that. You know, Ukrainian drones could physically go further than most Tomahawks. That being said, Tomahawks came out, what is it, 1982. And they're better than anything the Russians have ever had or ever will have. So they are an impressive piece of weaponry. They would have been very helpful. Ukraine is going after things such as the refineries, but also the factories that produce the chemicals that are needed for those refineries. There's a lot of single source refineries in the former Soviet states because they never thought there'd be independent countries. So by going after these refineries and going after the factories that produce the chemicals for them, it was something that could be a game changer. I mean, it really is within the US President's choice. I mean, with the signing of a document, he can make sure that we would destroy such factories. And Russia's ability to produce future oil in the country would collapse. Russia's economy would go totally into free fall and it would be a matter of hours. It'd be very fast. It would not take a lot of time. Russia as our enemy, which we spent tens of billions of dollars across the Cold War, would be defeated. But for some reason, we've decided not to do that. We have decided instead that V. Putin wants to make a deal.

[A]

And. Okay, so is that more because of sort of the nature of Trump's thinking, or do you think it's fear of escalation? What do you think drives that?

[D]

Well, it's two different ideologies, I'd argue. I think in the case of Biden, it was fear of escalation, total weakness, total lack of appreciation for American strength. Jake Sullivan was probably the worst we could possibly have running national security. A person who is just scared of his own shadow. But on the other screen you have somebody who just does not recognize. Vladimir Putin. At no point said he wanted a peace deal. At no point did he say, donald Trump, please come negotiate for us. I don't know why the US President believes that anybody has asked him. The Ukrainians have it, the Russians have it, but he has taken upon himself to go in and negotiate something that the Russians have said. This idiot is over here fishing in waters that are on his own and sticking his nose. The business does belong and he's going to end up screwing the Ukrainians. He doesn't even realize it. They're laughing at him. They're laughing at Americans. Yeah.

[A]

Now, glad you mentioned Jake Sullivan. I agree with your assessment on, on Sullivan and, and one of the things I found entertaining, and this is completely off topic, but over the past week, it's clear that the Democratic strategist brain trust put out a memo saying, okay, here's how we have to have to negate Trump's success over the Hamas ceasefire. And so they put out a memo saying, talk about how he's just following Biden's blueprint. And so, so Sullivan and Sullivan, and to be fair, other toadies of that era came out and said, well, we left the exact blueprint on Trump's desk, so he's just following it.

[D]

So.

[A]

But I do love, I do love references to Jake Sullivan for some reason. Look, if the, if economic pressure is kept on Russia and the Ukrainians continue to target their energy infrastructure and Putin continues to be basically isolated in key parts of the world stage, is that enough to, to get a successful resolution, or does Ukraine need to mount a very serious counter offensive in order to drive them out? And is that even possible out of eastern Ukraine?

[D]

Well, it is possible. It's a matter of, though, a lot of different things happening at the same time, one of which is that I think the rapid decline of the Russian economy would be something that would be quite useful to making that a realistic outcome. Right now, the Russians are suffering massive losses. They're losing more than 1200 men a day. Just in the summer offensive, they lost over 2002, sorry, 200,000 men that were casualtied, and they gained less than 1% of the territory of Ukraine since 2022, they've gained less than 3% of the territory. Ukraine have had 1,200,000 casualties. 1,200,000. That's what's incredible.

[A]

What's, what's a credible casualty count that you've seen for Ukraine, realistically, and by.

[D]

The way, and I, I would have assumed that it was just nonsense, but realistically it probably is. About a fifth of that is a quarter of that. And the reason that it's true, and at first you say it's not possible, it's such a big difference, but it is. When you just watch the videos day after day, and I follow Russian news again, and I follow the Russian telegram channels, you don't see the videos like you do on the Russian side. I mean, the degree that the Russians send all these guys in with crutches to go assault positions with no weapons, it's really just insane. I mean, there's. You'll see that every day they lead the assaults down the same paths. There's dozens upon dozens of bodies just laying in the left, laying on the right. Guys are sitting in motorcycles, guys sitting on golf carts, and they just get blown up pretty quick. And the Russians and their officers see this. They're watching from a distance, and they send the same guys the next day, the same group, another group down the same path, another group down the same path day after day after day. And the only conclusion is that simply the officers are not rewarded for doing anything that's useful. They're rewarded for. You followed the order today. You made three attempts to assault. And if you lost three times, that's okay. You made the attempt. It's.

[A]

It's so. It's so World War I like, it's insane. It is. It is. It's the very definition of insanity. Jason, look, I've got a bunch more questions for you, but I want to be mindful of your time, and I really appreciate you. I know it's late there where you are in Kiev, but I do hope you'll come on back because the cynic in me tells me we'll be talking about this for some time.

[D]

Thanks. Great talking with you, Mike.

[A]

All right, that's Jason J.

[D]

Smart.

[A]

You can find him on YouTube at Jason J. Smart. I suggest you go there. He's got. Got that place wired. He's been covering it for quite some time. All right, coming up next, China's military is tightening the noose around Taiwan with new drills and gray zone tactics, raising fears of an invasion. Former CIA analyst Buck Sexton just got back from Taiwan. He'll join us to share what he saw on the ground. And now the island is preparing to fight back. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I'm the host of the pdb, as you know. But did you also know that I'm a bit of a gourmand? That's a. That's a very fancy, I think, French word. That just means, I like delicious food. So let me ask you this. Have you heard about a terrific company called Gold Belly? It's an incredible site that you need to visit, and it delivers America's most iconic foods from legendary restaurants straight to your door. That's right, anywhere in the U.S. look, you can enjoy Chicago deep dish pizza as example from Lou Malnati's.

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[F]

I'm Piers Morgan, the host of the Piers Morgan Uncensored podcast. We do big interviews and we do big debates about whatever's getting people talking. We make news, we make noise, and we make a little bit of trouble too. Come and see what all the fuss is about. You can listen to Piers Morgan Uncensored on Apple podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[A]

Foreign welcome back to the BDB Situation Report. Taiwan's Defense Ministry is warning that China has intensified its military posture in recent weeks, engaging in so called gray zone operations designed to wear Taiwan down without triggering an outright war. Chinese aircraft are crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait almost daily and new satellite images show amphibious landing drills ramping up along China's coast. All of that could be a clue. It all points to a sobering reality. Beijing appears to be rehearsing for a blockade or even an invasion. Our next guest just returned from Taiwan, where he met with the president, the vice president, and top national security officials. He was very busy. He toured drone factories, saw the country's defenses firsthand, and says Taiwan is racing the clock to prepare. Joining me now is Buck Sexton, former CIA analyst and co host of the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton show. Buck, thanks very much for taking the time to be here on the Situation Report. Man.

[C]

Hey, thank you so much for having me. I feel like we're just about to start plotting to overthrow a small but relatively significant third world country between the two of us.

[D]

This is great. Really.

[A]

Does it sound like Schwanner mela or anything like that?

[C]

No, I mean, something could be going on somewhere. I'm hearing some stories about some of our former colleagues.

[A]

Well, let's not, let's not let all the cats out of the bag. Hey, first question. I know I want to be mindful of, of your time, but first question. How come you let Clay Travis have the, the first name in your show?

[C]

Oh, that's easy. He's older, way older. You know, it's age before beauty is how that goes.

[A]

That's actually a good point. So you're saying he's a bit informed is what you're saying. Okay.

[D]

I mean, I'm not.

[C]

He's not, he's not Biden level. I mean, but if you saw that golf swing that he put out there, I mean, it's even worse than my tennis serve, so who knows?

[A]

Wow. And that's, yeah, that's not something to watch. Listen, I. All right, fine. I didn't bring you on to talk about that, Although I, I think the audience will find it very interesting. You just got back from Taiwan. Tell me what you learned.

[C]

That was fascinating. I mean, we sat down with the president, the vice president, national security advisor. I mean, a whole range of the, the people that are, you know, making the, the decisions there. And look, China is definitely preparing for an invasion. Whether they pull the trigger on it or not is the multi trillion dollar question. But there's no other possible military explanation for the massive buildup that they're doing. And, and the buildup has been accelerating in recent years, as has the, the frostiness of China Taiwan relations. They've essentially cut off travel and cut off trade between Taiwan and the mainland.

[A]

That the CCP has.

[C]

And so there's really no conversation between these two states. Obviously, China says this is an internal matter. There is no country that we should be having a conversation with that is known as Taiwan. But I think there's very real, very elevated concern now. And because of a few things we can get into, I understand right now there's a big, well, is it America first to get involved in someone else's war? In this case, it's, it's, we don't want there to be A war. In this case it's if we allow the Taiwanese, if we give the Taiwanese the defensive capability to prevent a war that's better for absolutely everybody. And, and I think that if we were to allow China to take Taiwan, it would cause enormous problems for America even if we totally sat back and let the whole thing happen.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. So, so what does that look like? If we give them the ability to defend themselves? What are we talking about?

[C]

Well, there's a whole range of what I think you could consider asymmetric force multipliers. When I was in Country Mike's a couple weeks ago, there was, we, we toured a, a drone, actually a drone factory and then also a boat drone factory. So, so there's like sky drones. We saw those being made. And then I also saw a, a, a boat maker that was creating what are effectively autonomous speedboats packed with explosives that can be controlled simultaneously. Multiple speedboats by one, you know, by one control panel essentially. So it's like a speedboat exposed explosive speedboat, AI enabled swarm. And you could imagine for amphibious landing purposes. For the Chinese, this is the kind of thing that can make life more difficult. Now they obviously have countermeasures. They've got all kinds of, you know, ship mounted machine guns and other things that would try to deal with that. But the, the weapon systems that they need to have are going to be the kind of things that rely on, on being smarter and being, like I said, asymmetric than what the Chinese are able to throw at it. Because in pure resource terminology and pure resources, you got a billion people with more ships than we have. It's a big problem for the 23 million men Taiwanese islands to, to figure out how they're going to do this. They just have to raise that cost high enough.

[A]

It's, it's a bit, well, it's not unlike, not a perfect example, but it's not unlike what Russia and Ukraine, you know, are staring at.

[D]

Right.

[A]

I mean you've got a significant manpower advantage for Russia. And since I'm talking about those two right now, there's evidence that China, the PLA has had observers on the ground in Ukraine for some time now.

[D]

Right.

[A]

And they've been observing and learning from what's happening. In particular, I, I think the sort of, the advancement of drone capabilities has been a big issue for them. Any indications that you saw that the Taiwanese are taking advantage of Ukraine's experience and working with them in any way in terms of their, their drone capabilities?

[C]

I asked them specifically about that.

[A]

We're big idea Guys is what we.

[C]

Are, what we call tradecraft, Mr. Baker, tradecraft. So you know, the, the, the answer to the question is, is both is a yes and no. I'll start with the. Well actually, let me start with the no side of it. They view it as a very different battle space, which of course it is, right? The when you're talking about Taiwan, it's defense of an island that's almost 100 miles from the mainland. So the amphibious slash naval component and aerial component is really the ball game, right? I mean if you're trying to stop massive or mass Chinese divisions once they have a beachhead and like that's pretty much going to be game over. So you really have to have to view it as, as a naval and aerial situation first and foremost different than Ukraine, which has turned into trench warfare. However, to your question, what they are seeing and where they do take a lot of lessons learned is it's about both technology and manufacturing capacity, right? So you got to be able to make the stuff that can either take out the other guy's stuff or his, you know, or obviously his anti personnel take out his, his troops. But you need to make them at scale. So what, what they're seeing in Ukraine is, it's not just, I have the newest version, the newest iteration of whatever this drone is that has anti jamming capability that you know, has the speed and quiet needed. I mean all these different things are being changed month to month, right? They're, they're really moving very fast on the, on the technological capacity of these things. But then it's well, can you make a thousand of them? Because if you can only make one or two of them that obviously doesn't have the same. So that's where the Taiwanese are looking at this. And obviously everything they're doing is purely, all their military capacities inherently defensive, like they're not invading anyone, certainly not the Chinese mainland. But they realize it's, can we make this stuff better than our opponent and can we make it at scale? Because even if you have better gizmos, better drones, better air defense tech, whatever it may be, if they can just overwhelm via swarms. And that's what the Russians have been doing, the Ukrainians, they're going to get through your air defenses, right? So that's, it's those two pieces together that they've seen in Ukraine are so essential that the Taiwanese are definitely paying very close attention to.

[A]

Do you think that there's any chance that Xi Jinping is just using this threat of an invasion of Taiwan in whatever form it takes for leverage in other areas or. I mean, I realize I take your point from the beginning, which is what would be the other, any other reason for this massive buildup. But, you know, do you think that there is a chance that perhaps they're bluffing, I guess is the word I'm looking for. I certainly hope so.

[C]

This is, this is where you start to look at. I mean, it's funny because I have, I had somebody come up to me recently, says, you know, I teach at the Naval Warfare College and amphibious landing. There's no chance the Chinese would ever do this. Okay, well, if you talk to people on the Taiwanese national security side.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Just because of the, the difficulties. First of all, China's never fought a modern war. It's interesting when you think about it that way. I mean, there was, that there was obviously Chiang Kai Shek and, and Mao in World War II and fighting against the Japanese invasion, but they haven't fought a post World War II battle really at all. You know, some little skirmish stuff here and there. They fought in Vietnam. But I mean nothing, nothing meaningful as a first world power. Right. So their ability to do this stuff is a, is a pretty big question mark in the first place to execute on this stuff. It's one thing to have the tech and the soldiers, but can you actually, can you actually get it done? But it's funny because on the other side of it, people are, you'll talk to people in Taiwan who are saying, look, they just view this as a necessary part of the CCP's, a really origin story and therefore future.

[D]

Right.

[C]

That this is a what? That the One China policy is a central promise of the communists in China and for them to pass, to go beyond the one island, the first island chain, rather, this is an absolutely necessary step. And, and if they want to be able to go up against us as the other power across the Pacific for really global hegemony, this is, this has to happen.

[A]

Right.

[C]

There's no way they can be hemmed in by Taiwan and these other nations. So the, you know, again, it's the multi trillion dollar question. Do I think they, they believe they have more leverage in the negotiation, you know, in negotiations with us over the Taiwan issue, maybe. I know the Taiwanese are concerned that China is going to try to run Trump through all these circles on trade, cheat on trade and then leave high, leave Taiwan high and dry? I don't see that happening, but we're watching it in real time. I mean, this is going to be happening in the weeks and months right.

[A]

Ahead of us, right? No, I, I, I think you're right. I think the timeline is constricted. Okay, Buck, if you can stay right where you are, right? Unless you have to go, you know, change a, change a diaper or the baby, but stay right where you are. We'll be right back with more from the esteemed Buck Sexton. And here are the situation reports. Stick around this podcast is brought to you in part by Stash. Now what if you could start investing without ever picking a single stock? That sounds intriguing. With Stash, the experts handle the hard part for you. Look, Stash isn't just another investing app. It's a registered investment advisor that combines automated investing with expert guidance so you don't have to worry about figuring it out on your own. You can choose from personalized investments or let Stash's award winning smart portfolio do the work for you. With Stash, investing doesn't feel like gambling. It's simple. It's smart and stress free so your money can finally start working as hard as you do. Get access to world class financial advice with personalized guidance for just $3 per monthly subscription. That's right, you heard me correct. $3 a month. Stash has already helped millions of Americans reach their financial goals. Don't let your money sit around. Put it to work with stash. Go to get.stash.com PDB to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase and to view important disclosures, that's get.stash.com Pdb this is a paid non client endorsement, not representative of all clients and not a guarantee. Investment Advisory services offered by Stash Investments LLC and SEC Registered Investment Advisor Investing involves risk Offer is subject to terms and conditions.

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[A]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again, the famous, infamous man. Let's go with both Buck Sexton from the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show. Buck, thanks for sticking around. Let me ask you this. You were just there in Taiwan. What from your perspective, what's the, the expectation from Taiwan as far as US Involvement or engagement in the event of an invasion from Xi Jinping?

[C]

Well, I think that the for there's the first order of business for them, which is that they really want to have the and this came across in my interview with President Lai, that they just want to have the defensive capability to prevent all of this from happening in the US Has a role to play in that, in selling them. A lot of they don't. They're not looking for any freebies. They have obviously a very important economic component of this as well. And it's also why they can buy these things, right? They're manufacturing. Their tech sector is they're the global leaders in pretty much the most important thing in technology right now, which is microchip process, microchip manufacturing. And there are 90% of the top end microchips, 50% of all global semiconductors are microchips. So they can pay for this stuff, Mike, and they want to buy it. They are finding that there are delays in getting it because in part, our manufacturing capacity for being able to make things that go boom is strained right now because of Ukraine, because we've been supplying so much to the Ukrainian front. You know, we're not at war, so we haven't maxed out our capacity like in a World War II, all of the above setting. And so we're already churning out now some of this is going to be transferred, I think to our European partners. And certainly the monetary component of it might be more on their shoulders. That's, that's part of what Trump has accomplished. But they want more stuff and they want it faster. That's their main thing. They want to be able to buy more American, you know, advanced missiles. I mean, they were talking to me about all kinds of stuff. You know, they want epic. People say, why do they want F16 the Chinese will shoot them out of the sky right away during a war. Well, they want to be able to patrol their own skies and deal with these gray zone incursions in the meantime. And they say, oh well, why can't they make their own, you know, drone boats or whatever they are? They just can't make enough because China is obviously enormous and churning these things out at incredible capacity. So that's really what they want. I mean, if you're asking, would the US come in if there was this invasion as the cavalry over the hill, or in this case over the horizon, you know, with our submarines and naval capacity, they certainly hope so. And if we do, the Japanese, it's believed as well. And that would be enough to probably halt this thing in its tracks with China. But that's also a pretty big freaking deal. And I understand that. So again, what is it, what is.

[A]

It that our parents used to say.

[C]

An ounce of prevention, pound of cure, you know, that whole thing preventing.

[A]

I would, I would think that, you know, I'm sorry for interrupting, but I mean, if you think about this, you know, how, how much can you build up their defensive capabilities, right Without, I mean, if you don't have a compact, if you don't have a treaty that says in the event of X, we will, Japan will, others will come in and defend you, right? If you don't have that, if you take that off the table and basically what you're saying is, you know, give them all the defensive capabilities, you can hope that that's a deterrent for China not to move on, on Taiwan. But I guess me being a cynic, if I was Xi Jinping, I would be watching the past three and a half years in Ukraine and thinking to myself, okay, yeah, they're providing hardware, they're going to do that. But do I really believe they're going to get engaged in a, in, in, in combat over Taiwan to.

[C]

What you're actually putting your finger on, Mike, is the US Policy, which is called strategic ambiguity, right? So yeah, the, the, the back and forth that you and I are having on this of like, well, would we, wouldn't we.

[A]

That is the policy.

[C]

The policy is maybe we would, maybe we wouldn't. That is our, our actual US government approach to a defense of Taiwan. We leave it as we're not saying we won't, we're not saying we will.

[D]

We maybe.

[C]

And that is also going into, I know it seems like how could that be? But that as that is in fact the long standing. There was the Taiwan defense pact, but Then, you know, we moved away from that. Congress passed that, I think back in like the 70s and the 80s, I can't remember now. But we've, we've since gone away from that pack and now we have the strategic ambiguity issue. Look at all, it depends on a lot of things, how fast can shot. I think that the concern, by the way, the number one TV show in Taiwan right now is a TV show about a Chinese.

[A]

Yes. Let me guess, is it South Park?

[C]

No, but that would be amazing.

[A]

That would be always. That's it.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

You know, it's a TV show about the invasion, about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. So just to give you a sense of like, how much this is on their minds, there's a show called Zero Day and it is about the days before the Chinese invasion hits. And it's a drama and it's, you know, it's like a top TV show that actually watched some episodes of it because we had it, you know, obviously dubbed over. But yeah, I think that, I think that it's going to be very interesting to see what the Trump trade policy with China ends up looking like because that's also going to either weaken or strengthen, I think, Xi at home. But you got some big challenges like the demographic reality in China, Mike. You got millions and millions of men because the one child policy with no realistic demographic hope of getting married or a better economic future. You got a country that has a lot that has stalled out economically, internally, that's getting called out, all the cheating practices on trade. What does a country like that do?

[D]

Sometimes it does aggressive bad things.

[C]

So there's just precedent to be really concerned about this. But again, I hope that this is like the, the thing that we keep talking about and then never happens. And then people wonder why we talked about it so much. But increasingly, I think the data is looking more like, you know, we talked about the Iran thing forever and then we actually just, well, the Israelis and us just blew their stuff up.

[A]

Yeah, well, I think, yeah, you look at the previous timelines, we go back, not very far back, and look at what people were imagining in Washington, D.C. about, okay, when would China make a move on, on Taiwan? It was quite a ways down the road, right? It was, there was a long timeline and now that has shrunk. And you know, personally, I, you know, again, I'm not a betting man, but if I had to, you know, I'd say it would be before Xi Jinping rides off into the sunset. So part of this can be based on what is his health like what's his grip on power like? But okay, so let's, Can I just, just.

[C]

I think it's important, Mike, because you led to this. I mean, look at what Putin did with, with Ukraine. I mean, it wasn't really. He already had Crimea. He'd already sort of established this de facto control in the East. He had to go for the whole thing. He wanted to take Kiev, as we know. He was going for the whole oh, yeah, caboodle. Right, yeah. Why was he doing that? Well, it was because of narrative. It was because of broad national security perception from the Kremlin that we don't necessarily share at all here, but it mobilized, it moved them, and they've lost hundreds of thousands of xeno casualties in this war already. For anyone who's like America first, I don't care about Taiwan. China seizes the capability that Taiwan has to make these semiconductors. They are the leader in AI, they're the leader in technology, and they can choke off our tech economy overnight.

[A]

That's a big problem. Well, yeah, we already saw that with sort of the, the, the rare earths, minerals, you know, exports slack. That was heard around the world. So, yeah, I, I am always fascinated by that. And I get this a lot from, from people who, basically espousing an isolationist point of view, a lot of them being libertarians. And I got a lot of time, a lot of respect for a lot of the ideas that libertarians have, but I'm, I'm, you know, at the end of the day, I'm always thinking, oh, I could never be one, because I don't think that we exist in a bubble.

[D]

Right?

[A]

The, the world is, is shrunk to the point where we're all interconnected and just because we want to pretend like we're protected by water and friendly neighbors, that somehow something bad happens, it's not going to impact us from overseas. And so I take your point there. Listen, I was, I got a bunch more questions, but what we don't have is a bunch more time. Buck, I hope you'll come on back. Edison. Buck, thanks so much. The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show. If you're not already a regular viewer, you should be. Well, that is all the time, unfortunately, that we have for this episode of the PDB Situation Report. I know, Sad trombone. We've got to get that sound effect somewhere. If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes, please reach out to me at pdb@thefirst tv.com. you know what we do? We, we take your best questions and comments. And once a month, we put them all together in a. In a much, much loved, highly acclaimed episode called Ask Me Anything. So keep your cards and letters coming, please. We do really enjoy hearing from you. To listen to the podcast ad free. You can do that. You can do it very simply. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker. Until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.