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PDB Situation Report | September 13th, 2025: Making Sense Of Charlie Kirk’s Assassination & Israel Expands the War to Qatar
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This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance.
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Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians.
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These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations. Welcome to the PDP Situation report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll start today with the latest developments in the shocking assassination of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk. New details are emerging on the investigation and the shooter. We'll be joined by retired FBI agent James Gagliano for his insight. Later in the show, Israel carries out a strike in Doha, the capital of Qatar. It's a dramatic escalation that's drawn sharp reaction across the region. We'll be joined by Clifford May. He's the founder and president of the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. But first, today's SITUATION Report. Spotlight. Popular conservative commentator Charlie Kirk was assassinated earlier this week while speaking at a college event in Utah. The assassination sparked a nationwide manhunt for the killer. Now, early on Friday morning, during a television appearance, President Trump announced that a suspect was in custody. In the president's words, authorities had a, quote, high degree of certainty that the shooter was in the hands of law enforcement. Shortly thereafter, officials, including the head of the FBI held a press conference to confirm that, yes, the suspect was now in custody. 22 year old Tyler Robinson from southern Utah was reportedly turned in by his father and pastor. But the investigation is far from over. Motive remains unclear how much planning went into the attack and were others involved. For more on that, let me bring in retired FBI supervisory Special Agent Jim Gagliano. Jim served in the Bureau for 25 years in various roles and is now an assistant professor and doctoral candidate in homeland security at St. John's University. Jim, thanks very much, man, for being here on THE SITUATION report.
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B
Mike, thanks for that rundown. You need to talk to some of my professors at the military academy. They would tell you a different story about my academic proficiencies.
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A
One day we'll sit down over beers and compare our GPAs. I think I'm going to lose.
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I don't know about that. Sounds good.
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A
Yeah. Well, listen, let's talk about obviously what's been top of mind for everybody and of course that's the assassination of Charlie Kirk. The suspect is now in custody and shortly after President Trump made that announcement, then they had the official press conference that took place with everyone from the Governor to Cash Patel to Dan Bongino to sheriffs and local law enforcement. It was, it ran for a while. But tell me what your top line takeaway is from that initial press conference after the suspect was captured.
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Sure. Well, certainly we're all breathing a heavy sigh of relief. I, I was confident they were going to capture this guy, Mike, from the beginning. Looking at the cascading, mounting hill of evidence that seemed to be piling up, I was pretty confident that he was going to be captured. There exist no perfect crimes today. This isn't the era of Jack the Ripper where, you know, somebody can, you know, pull something heinous off and disappear and never to be found again. I, I was confident in that. I, look, we could certainly get into, I thought on the messaging end from law enforcement. There were certainly some mistakes and missteps, and I'll chalk that up to a, a brand new FBI director and also a Utah governor. That, you know, was confusing to me because, you know, you both, you and I both served in these type of roles before, but as an incident commander, you're.
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You.
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That's not a politician role. I say that as a recovering politician, having just served two terms as the mayor of the village of Cornwall and Hudson in upstate New York. That's not the role for a politician. But obviously, again, I guess, you know, good news is going to make everything okay. I just trust that nothing was released. We didn't get too far ahead of this thing that's going to screw up a prosecution. We remember having a suspect in custody is one thing. We've got to prove he was guilty of doing this and send him away for the rest of his life or in the case of Utah, potentially seek the death penalty.
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Yeah. Now it, it, it appears, and, and you know, I, I'll, I'll let you, as the expert, you know, focus on this, but I'm, I'm curious about a number of areas related to this investigation. It appears that once they released a variety of images and essentially it appeared to be asking for the public's help, obviously, in identifying the individual, that the individual, the young man's father and pastor, essentially turned him in or convinced him to turn himself in. Is it your understanding that they now are in possession of a full confession or is that something that's still in the works?
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I would have loved for a reporter to have asked that very salient question at this press conference. And look, maybe law enforcement would or would not have confirmed that or denied that, but yes. Did this individual end up confessing to the crimes. That's going to be important. But look, Mike, there is mounting evidence. Mounting evidence. And remember, the legal system. You don't have to find the gun, and we have the gun, the rifle in this instance, you don't have to have that. The murder weapon is not. You can convict on circumstantial evidence. And I imagine the treasure trove. And I talked to some of my FBI buddies still on the job, the veritable treasure trove of evidence, from DNA evidence to latent fingerprints. And look, in today's day and age, everything is blanketed by digital exhaust. And at that event, 3,000 people, many of them filming it on their cell phone cameras. You had campus security photos. There's just a plethora of evidence. I think that is going to tie this guy to it. And I'll just wrap with this. You and I are old enough to remember the case of the Unabomber and, and how difficult that was for a family member, a brother, to come forward and say, hey, I just read this manifesto that was, that was printed in the newspaper. And, and my God, that sounds like my brother, who's a recluse, you know, and lives in. In. In Montana and has basically got off the grid. And that certainly had to have been going through the mind of that father. He did the right thing. He. He made a hard moral choice that, hey, my son is accused and in all likelihood committed this heinous crime, and he's got to face justice. But my God, Mike, as a father who would ever want to be put in that situation, have to make that horrible decision.
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Yeah. And then you have to have, you have to have empathy for, for the, the parents in this situation. Right. And I, and I hope people do because it's just, as you pointed out, it's. It's just awful if you, if you think about that. I can't even imagine what that must be like for a parent in that situation. But. And you're, and you're right about the difficulty of getting someone close to, to an individual who's done something like this to come forward. Right. I mean, that's oftentimes in lone wolf terror attacks. That's, that's what you're. You're. You left hoping for is, is that somebody saw something and they're actually going to come forward and talk about it. I saw my cousin do this. Right. You know, I'm, I'm. I'm worried about my friend or my brother who did this. And so it. But oftentimes, you know, it's. It's A very difficult decision, of course, on their part. The, the role of, it's going to sound odd, but the role of speculation. Right. Would, I love your term, by the way? Digital exhaust. And I'm, I'm going to shamelessly adopt that. I probably won't even give you credit for it, but I'm, I'm definitely using that. But in this day and age, you're right. Right. Everybody expects immediate answers because of instant gratification and that's not the way investigations play out. It's, it's a, it's a painstaking, labor intensive process. But immediately after this, right, I, as, I, I always do this and I go to social media to see how bizarre it's getting. And it got really bizarre very quickly after the shooting. Everything from this was the government doing it to people who were convinced, oh, this is a professional hit. And that speculation, I assume for law enforcement, from an investigative perspective, they just let that go. They just, they push that aside. I, I, I assume, yeah, it's, you.
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Know, first of all, Mike, you, what you're, what you're touching on is how spoiled we are as a nation. And with 21st century technology in the police sciences realm that we consider every crime to be solvable in a law and order television program, 60 Minute show with five commercial breaks and we have the answer and we have the conviction. Doesn't work that way. It didn't work that way in the Boston bomber case. It certainly didn't work that way in the Louis Luigi Mangione case. Who killed the businessman, the health care executive in New York City. It takes time, but I'm confident in today's day and age, with the, with the types of technology that we have and the availability and you know, look at Manhattan, a place that you and I are very familiar with, there's not a square inch of that island that's not covered by some type of surveillance, whether it's government installed or whether it's private security camera footage. So going back to what you said and suggested about reading the stuff online. Yes, it's infuriating how, however, having said that, crowdsourcing is a thing and the ability to push this stuff out and to release information or to put out a bolo, a be on the lookout message is hugely, hugely helpful in law enforcement circles. And lastly to, to round out your, your, your final query there. Yeah, I took some mild criticism for the fact that I pushed back early on. Now you and I are in the business sometimes where we have to make hot takes and it's difficult Right. Something happens, they throw you in front of a camera as a talking head and they say, give us your reaction. We don't have all the facts. They're looking for you to use your informed decision making processes and your experience to give them something to help make sense of what might be nonsensical. Well, people were talking about the fact that the tinfoil hat legions were talking about the fact that this was an FBI, CIA or NSA hit, which you just ignore those, you're going to get that kind of crackpot stuff. But it was the folks that got out there and talked about the skill set and the expertise and the fact that this was a trained assassin and a hitman and had to be a, you know, a marksman of, you know, of, of great skill. And I had to knock it down. And I said, look, you know, I went to the United States Marine Corps Sniper School as a FBI Hostage Rescue team member. I'm an FBI SWAT trained sniper and I had to qualify in the Marine Corps range, which is out to a thousand yards. Look, those kind of shots where you're shooting 500, 600 meters, 800, 900, that takes skilled marksmanship. You're worried about windage and elevation and the bullet drop due to gravity and, and how the wind impacts things and how the lack of the loss of velocity impacts around. This was a, and I don't want to sound, I don't want to sound like I'm being glib or make light of this when I say this was a cake shot that an amateur could have made. And that's clearly was the case here. Was this kid familiar with guns? Yes, he lived in Utah. You've seen pictures of him with a hunting rifle. He was probably, he went out with his father and went moose hunting or went deer hunting or something like that, but from less than 200 yards away with a 10 by scope on it. From what it appears, from what I saw, this is a shot. People are like, look, Jimmy, he, he had a kill shot in the neck. Look, President Trump blessedly and miraculously survived an amateur who missed him by millimeters from killing him to, to nicking his ear. In this instance, it worked the other way. This kid, probably Mike, aimed center mass and just because of the bullet type and because of the climate and the environmental conditions, ended up with a kill shot in the neck. I've seen guys bleed out from a nick. You knew that this was going to be serious. But the whole professional assassin thing, you see the video last night that's released, he's stumbling around A neighborhood. He doesn't just get in a vehicle, get onto i15 and drive 100 miles away before anybody noticed he was gone. And he clearly had no backup plan, no egress plan. This was not a trained assassin.
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Yeah, no, I don't, and, but people don't want to think about, you know, Charlie, you know, died from a lucky shot, which is essentially. I don't want to sound ghoulish, and I don't mean it that way, but that's what it was. It was just incredibly bad fortune for Charlie and his family and for everybody who, you know, admired what he was doing and trying to do in terms of open debate and just trying to get ideas out there. It was just as you said, you know, look, you could give somebody 20 minutes of instruction, you know, on, on, on a bolt action rifle and, you know, they, they, it's just not, it's not that tough. But people don't want to think that, right? They don't want to think that something this tragic is the result of, of misfortune, of bad luck or whatever you want to call it. So I, you know, I, I, but I'm always fascinated by the, the impact of social media and this, this desire for instant answers. And I think you're right. Everybody's conditioned for it because they watch tv, they read beach books, whatever, and, and they're used to having answers in, in no time at all. And it frustrates them. And that just creates this environment where people can get out there and speculate. And I've taken some heat over the years for being on a national TV news show and just saying, I don't know, I'd be speculating and leaving at that. And then the, the anchor staring at me like, well, that's not your, you're not supposed to just sit there and do that. So, But I don't, you know, the speculation never, never serves a worthwhile purpose for the most part, unless it's coming from, you know, with law enforcement, unless it's coming from an informed individual who can, who can, you know, then clearly say, here are the scenarios that may exist. Right. But we don't have evidence at this stage of the investigation to back that up. So, but, you know, I'll get off my soapbox now, Jim, if you could hang around just for a little bit longer. We've got to take a quick break and then we'll be back with Jim Gagliano from former FBI and friend of the show, great guy, I think gets that. That's, you know, that's Enough. I. I've said enough good things about it. But we'll be right back here on the situation report. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, most of you know me as a fashion icon, right? So I want to talk to you about a great clothing company that's out there. It's called True Classic. True Classic started with a simple mission to bring premium comfortable clothing to the masses. Because looking and feeling great shouldn't come with a designer price tag. And clearly people agree. True Classic has sold over, get this, 25 million shirts to more than 5 million customers and have over 200,000 five star reviews. Think about that. 25 million shirts. Come on. This brand isn't just about fabric or fit, though. It's about helping guys show up every day with confidence and purpose. True Classic, their shirts fit right, they feel amazing, and they won't drain your wallet. I've got a closet full of their shirts and you can feel the difference the moment you throw one on. They're tailored, word counts. They're relaxed where it matters, right? There's no bunching. Nobody wants any bunching. There's no stiffness. Nobody needs that. Just a clean, easy fit that works for real life. Skip the cheap throwaway stuff and overpriced designer brands. True Classic is built for comfort, built to last, and built to give back. You can find them on Amazon or at Target, Costco, Sam's Club, or just head to trueclassic.com PDB to try them out for yourself.
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Recently we asked some people about sharing their New York Times accounts.
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I would be very interested in having separate logins for a shared subscription. I'm 35 years old. I still share my parents New York Times subscription.
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I think if my teenagers were to have their own logins, we could share articles.
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It doesn't let us play the same.
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Games as each other. I do the crossword.
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I do the spelling bee.
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I do the wordle. Please help.
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Having our own accounts would be amazing. My mom could save her own recipes. My friends could save their recipes. I want to get the weekly newsletter, but they seem to always go to my husband and then he doesn't forward them to me. We both love cooking. I'm a 30 minute and under dinner girly. My boyfriend is very elaborate. I think him having his own profile would be great. We love the New York Times and we would love to love it individually.
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We heard you introducing the New York Times Family subscription one subscription, up to four separate logins for anyone in your life. Find out more@nytimes.com family.
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Welcome back to.
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The BDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is retired FBI Supervisory Special Agent Jim Gagliano. Jim, thanks for sticking around. If you could, for the benefit of our viewers, take us back to the immediate aftermath of the, the shooting. From the Bureau's perspective, what is that process? Like what, what happens? What, what starts happening as soon as that incident occurs?
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Sure. So, Mike, first, let's, let me preface this by saying let's, let's set the scene here. So, so you, you characterized Charlie Kirk the same way that I would have a wonderfully gifted young man that, that argued that we should have debates in the public square, we should roll up our sleeves and do it that way, not via fisticuffs or violence, and then met a tragic end while espousing those exact same beliefs. So there had been threats on Charlie's life before because there's some people that preach tolerance and inclusion and just don't follow the rain their own preaching methods. So I know some guys that had served on Charlie's details before he had private security details. They were made up of former HRT colleagues of mine. He had a, a detail with him that day out on, on the, you, the, you know, the Utah campus where he was, where he was set up to go. And we know that there were six local police officers that were also assigned there, whether they were campus police or local police officers. Now, look, I'm not going to Monday morning quarterback. Hey, Jimmy, do you think that the local cops did the wrong thing? They didn't have enough people? I don't know the resources available there. Utah is not a place that you would expect something like this to happen, even though you're supposed to expect the unexpected. But you had 3,000 people in attendance, Mike. And you know, whether or not they had a heads up that there was going to be that big of a crowd, should there have been more of a law enforcement presence?
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Absolutely.
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B
Now, having said that, the FBI investigates political assassinations, right? Well, you know, does this fall into what a political assassination is? The way we understand it, we Think about JFK or Lincoln or Martin Luther King or Robert Kennedy or Malcolm X. We think about those kind of political assassinations. But this was somebody who wasn't an elected official. He was just an, I mean, I hate to use the term activist, it has negative connotations. But he was an influencer and somebody that was engaging with the community and this is what he did. Okay, so what could have been done prior? Well, he didn't have a Secret Service detail. There were no drone support to take a look at the rooftops and make sure that some young kid armed with a hunting rifle couldn't get up there and take a less than 200 yard shot. There was no magnetometer. There was no screening people for concealed weapons. It just wasn't going to happen in something like this. Now let's talk about, you know, to write of boom. Or what happened after that fateful shot. Okay, so the FBI gets called in immediately. Now you're probably wondering, well, Jimmy, the FBI doesn't investigate murder cases. And you're right, that's not typically the purview. But murder is, is a predicate that can be used in many different federal statutes and violations to include RICO and things like that or a political assassination. So in this instance, they were asked to, to help with this case. Well, as soon as something happens in that immediate aftermath, that's the most critical portion because you don't want the subject or the suspect to escape that tight perimeter. Mike, what I was concerned about, and I said on many appearances on TV and radio, was where that building was. Right behind it was a parking lot where we've now seen video of this young man stumbling around in after he jump off the building behind that parking lot was i15. I15 is a major arterial thoroughfare that he could have been on within minutes and been hundreds of miles away. Provo Municipal Airport, 45 minutes away. The fact that he stayed so close showed he didn't have a plan. It wasn't a professional hit. And look, you know, what would the FBI be doing in the immediate aftermath? Well, securing the crime scene. That's number one. And obviously they recovered shell casings. They didn't recover the rifle at the scene, but they recovered a palm print and, you know, you could see where his body had been lying supine and where his knees and legs were. They then curated and collated all the different security cam footage that was available on, on campus. And then. Mike, it's a difficult thing. It's wonderful because it helps in these instances. But the amount of legwork and Resource behind trying to collect all that video cell phone data and go through it to find out who did this and then track his, his tracks in and track his tracks out. It's amazing that he stayed so close and that we do have a person in custody. This could have gone horribly differently if this guy had been able to get to a vehicle and gotten a long distance away. Hard work is still ahead of us. I mean, the case has still got to be put together to make sure this guy never sees the light of day again. But that's what the FBI would be working on.
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Yeah, yeah. No, it's, you're absolutely right. I mean, you know, if he had a, a plane ticket, right, and had just headed straight over to Salt Lake City Airport and, you know, jumped on knowing what the timing was of the, of the event and, and just map that out, this could have been infinitely more difficult if, you know, but, but again, I think helped with the fact that they had this surveillance footage and obviously then, you know, that, that, that alerted his, his family and his father and pastor, and so that, that made all the difference. People. Sometimes I've had these conversations with privacy advocates who rail against the idea of, of a surveillance society, and I'm, I'm always mystified by that. Right. It's, it's the same type of mindset that says the government's watching me. And I always try, you're engaged in, in significant criminal activity or you're a terrorist. The government doesn't have time for you. They don't care. Right. But people like to imagine that somehow they're, they're, they're after me because I.
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Don'T know why, you know, people don't understand that outside of your home, you have no reasonable expectation of privacy. Look, I can't come in your home and look at you without a warrant. I can't go into your cell phone without a warrant. You have a reasonable expectation of privacy and fourth amendment protections, but if you're out on a college campus or on a public roadway, you have no reasonable expectation of privacy. So this whole surveillance state thing, that, that just doesn't apply here.
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Yeah, no, I agree. Now I, again, I take your point. Armchair quarterbacking. But you know, in after the, an event like this, but, you know, they have to do a hot wash, right? They're going to, they're going to have to look at this and go, what do we need to do? From a variety of levels. And you know, I would argue from a security perspective, if you've got a subject, if you've got. If you've got a protectee, you've got an individual, a principal that has been receiving death threats, and he's talked about that. Right. And. And it's not just him, it's others in that, particularly in that conservative commentator world, then, you know, there's. There's things that can be done, right, that you. You could have an indoor event where you could have magnetometers, where you could have more screening. There's. I think we have enough, unfortunately, we have enough recent case studies, Butler being one of them, that says any outdoor event poses, even with a Secret Service detail, poses significant challenges. And in today's world. And so I would just. I guess what I'm saying is anybody who's in that situation, whether you're on the security side or whether you're, you know, somebody who's out there speaking and commentating, and it has a potential to. To upset people who are on a fringe level, you need to be thinking about these things.
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Yeah, the only, you know, the only. The only rub against that. Everything that you just said is on point. The only rub against that is, you know, when you have threats against a private citizen, not an elected official, but a private citizen, the responsibility, unfortunately, you know, is on that person to make those decisions for their own security, because people would. Can you imagine people are screaming right now over the fact that his casket, which bore his body back to his home, was traveling on Air Force Two on the Vice president's plane. And can you imagine if, you know, whether you're a conservative or a liberal commentator and you received death threats and the government was providing security. But I agree with your point about outdoor events like this, which make it so much more difficult. But those are decisions and calculations that have to be made by the. By the principal in this. And in this instance, Charlie wanted to be close and connected to people, and he wanted to be able to engage in. My God, if you can't do that in this country, in the greatest country in the history of the world, my God, Mike, where can you do it?
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A
Yeah, well, I think it's. Look, there's the world we'd like to live in. I mean, you know, and then. Then, unfortunately, this is what we've got. But I agree 100% with you. What I'm saying is this. This was not a law enforcement issue. This was. It's down to the individual. It's down to the. The principal, the person who's going out there, putting themselves out there. And, you know, not everybody has the wherewithal right to, to have a security team. But if you're on that security team, you're. That, you know, that I would just encourage people to push their, their principal or whomever to think long and hard about the events that they're going out to and how those events are structured and how you can secure the perimeter and, and make sure that you, You've got what you can do to minimize. You're not going to lock it down completely, but there's things that they can be done in the. Going forward, in the future. It's not going to help Charlie. But once again, you know, I read some of this where people are blasting law enforcement and talking, and I think now, look, you know, I don't know, it's very. It's like reading the ghoulish comments from people on the fringe of the, of the left who are delighting in Charlie's, you know, assassination. You think what's happened to your humanity, you know, where normal people don't behave like that?
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B
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. But, you know, it goes back to, to the rhetoric. And again, I'm a firm believer that words are not violence. They're not. Violence is violence. And, you know, we both serve to, to protect and ensure that. We protected the First Amendment and the rights to be able to speak your mind. And we didn't do it for the speech that we. We both appreciated and agreed with. We did it for the speech that we abhorred, the speech that we didn't agree with. But we've come to this point in time now where, you know, gosh, a private citizen who's just out there mixing it up verbally, verbal jousting is what he's guilty of. You know, trying to convince you that his ideas were better than your ideas. And in this instance, Mike, here's the, here's the crux of this. Whether it's a mass shooter, whether it's a terrorist, or whether it's somebody like this, you know, these are all grievance collectors. What they do is they become upset about something that they let that metastasize and consume them, and they let that hate then turn into action. And in this instance where you have so many people in the political arena throwing around the term fascist, throwing around the term dictator, authoritarian, and Hitler, my God, Mike, think about this. If you were young and you were susceptible, impressionable, Impressionable and susceptible to this, and somebody says, my God, Mike, you've got a chance to stop Hitler. Remember what Hitler did to 6 million Jews. You've got a chance to stop him. This guy's got to be stopped. You're going to go out there and potentially think, oh my God, I've got to save the world and do this. It's an awful thing. But we have unstable people, we have mental defectives, we have mental illness, and we have people that are just evil. And that's what happened here. Does it mean that we can't speak, we can't say things? No, but it does mean when smart people like elected officials who can't be blamed for being dumb, smart people use that kind of rhetoric and then sit back and go, blood's not on my hands.
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A
Yeah, no, and they do. You know, it's always the same. It's, it's, you know, in the immediate aftermath of anything like this, it's, you know, people on all sides, oh, we gotta dial down the temperature, we've gotta stop the, the inflammatory rhetoric and that, and that, that never happens. Right? And then you've got, you know, people who, who unfortunately get lost down in the, in the sewers of social media and you know, they become, you know, heavily politicized or influenced, you know, and it's, it's a, it's a bizarre world, obviously that we're, we're living in and, and people have forgotten, I think, this level of civility and ability to kind of share ideas and you don't have to like somebody, you don't have to like their opinions, but good God, I mean, the, the idea that you would be celebrating the killing of somebody because you don't like their ideas, right? And then you stand there and they don't make that connection. Right? They don't make the connection of, of how, how abnormal that is. They feel self righteous almost. Right. And so, but it's not the behavior of a good person or a normal person, so. Well, listen, Jim, we could, we could sit here and bang on like this as two old philosophers for forever, probably not solve any of the world's problems. I just want to say thank you, man, for, for taking the time. I hope you'll come back again and I hope it'll be on a, on a happier occasion when we talk about other things going on in the world.
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B
Mike, I look forward to it, man. I'll catch you down the way. And yeah, unfortunately you and I have to talk about these tough topics, but I appreciate you having me on and give me a platform to kind of demystify a little bit about what's going on behind the scenes in this investigation.
- [33:53]
A
Jim Gagliano, former FBI Supervisory Special Agent and a Great guy. All right, listen. Coming up after the break, Doha, Qatar is the latest flashpoint in the Israeli Hamas war. We'll be joined by Clifford May. He's the founder and president of the foundation for the Defense of Democracy to break down Israel's strike inside gutter and the growing fallout. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you know those nights when you. You just don't sleep, right? You know what I'm talking about? You're tossing and turning, and the next day, of course, you're dragging, you're exhausted, and everything just seems harder to do. Well, that's where CBD from CB Distillery can make a real difference. But it's not just sleep products. CB Distillery has solutions that work with your body to help with stress or pain after exercise, or even mood and focus. And it's all made with the highest quality clean ingredients. No fillers, just premium cbd. Imagine waking up rested or enjoying your day without those nagging aches and pains. That's the real win of CB Distilleries Solutions. That's why over 2 million people trust CB Distillery. Look, I use their relief balm after workouts because frankly, at my age, workouts almost always involve some level of pain. And the balm really works. So. So if you're ready for better sleep or less stress and feeling good, well, try CBD from CB Distillery. And right now you can save 25%. Yeah, 25% off your entire purchase. Just visit CB Distillery and use promo code PDB. That's CBDistillery.com promo code PDB. Again, CBDistillery.com specific product availability depends on individual state regulations. For a limited time at McDonald's, get a Big Mac Extra Value meal for $8. That means two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun and medium fries. And a drink. We may need to change that jingle. Prices and participation may vary. Hablas espanol? Spiest du joits.
- [35:54]
D
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- [36:23]
A
Welcome back to the BDB Situation Report. Israel's war against Hamas has taken an extraordinary turn this week. Right into the heart of Qatar. Israeli warplanes struck a residential compound widely believed to house senior Hamas leaders. The strike shattered windows across the capital, rattling a nation that's played host to Hamas's political office for years and served as a key mediator in ceasefire negotiations. The strike marks a dramatic expansion of the conflict, one that could reshape both the battlefield and the diplomatic environment. Joining me now is Clifford May, founder and president of the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Cliff, thanks very much for joining us here on the Situation Report. We've got a lot to, to cover here, but let's start at the, if we could at the 30,000 foot level. Talk to me about your understanding of just how successful or not the Israeli strike was inside Qatar.
- [37:21]
C
Not as successful as the Israelis obviously hoped. From what we know, and it's not everything is not entirely clear. None of the top Hamas leaders were killed. Some lower level Hamas leaders were probably killed, but none of the top ones. And I think they wanted to do that. I think they believed that those top Hamas leaders who are billionaires living off stolen aid money or maybe off Qatari largesse, or were blocking any possibility of a ceasefire, including not least the proposals or proposed last proposal from President Trump, which the Israelis had accepted. These guys are living high in the hog in five star hotels and they thought, get rid of them and maybe we can get something done. Similar to what happened after Hassan Nasral, the head of Hezbollah was killed in Beirut. After that, the lower level guys who came up were more, more flexible about what kind of arrangements they could make. Now, in a way, a message has still been sent to those guys, which is you may think that because you wear suits and because you live well in Doha that you're, you have impunity. But we consider you to be terrorists. You are terrorists. You're responsible for the attacks of October 7, 2023. You're responsible every day for the holding and torturing of hostages that were abducted from Israel. We hold you responsible. And you're not. Just because you live in Doha doesn't mean we can't get you and won't get you now or later. If you want to deal where we say we won't kill you as terrorists, well, we can make that kind of deal. We can give you free passage. But first of all you got to say, what do we get in exchange, which is our hostages back anyhow? That's where I'll start.
- [39:09]
A
Yeah. Why why now, do you think? Why? I mean, because it's not like these cats, you know, just suddenly showed up in Doha. They've been there for quite some time, so.
- [39:19]
C
Absolutely.
- [39:19]
A
Why do you think Israel decided to do this strike now?
- [39:23]
C
I think they got to the point where they said, okay, these guys in Doha have decided they're not. They are going to win at the negotiating table what Hamas was unable to win on the battlefield. They've made up their mind that they'll sacrifice as many Palestinians as they have to, knowing very well that in Gaza, Palestinian civilians are being used as human shields. They're trying, you know, Gaza. In Gaza, Hamas is trying to prevent civilians from leaving Gaza City, which is, you know, under Gaza City, in the subterranean fortress is where we believe that the remaining terrorist leaders in Gaza are right now, and the Israelis want to ferret them out of there. I think the Israelis thought, okay, these guys are going no further. We got to show them that, A, they're not immune, and B, that there's no point pretending they are diplomats and negotiators. That's not what they are. And even, you know, I just got to say this, Mike, this whole idea of negotiations, if somebody, you know, steals your children from your house and then calls you on the phone and says, you know, let's have a negotiation about what you can give us in terms of ransom for that, it's not like, oh, yeah, that sounds like a good thing to do. Let's. Let's see if we can work something out that's mutually acceptable. No, you've committed a crime against us, and we're going to do what we can. Again, the Israelis gave it time. I think they had given up. I think President Trump had given up on Hamas in Gaza, in Doha, in Qatar, being reasonable and saying, okay, here's a deal the Israelis can accept. Here's the deal. Because they were saying, here's what's got to happen. Maybe we'll give some hostages back. Not too many. We want to keep a few. The Israelis have to get out entirely. No buffer zone. It's got to be clear that Hamas will be back in control of Gaza afterwards. In other words, they were asking for surrender from the Israelis.
- [41:18]
A
Yeah, I know this. This requires a little bit of speculation, I suppose, but do you think that the timing, in part, had something to do with. In terms of the strike, had something to do with the most recent attack in Jerusalem at the bus stop that killed six civilians?
- [41:37]
C
You're right. It's speculation, but, yes, I think it's enforced speculation. Because if you look at the Hamas statement about the terrorist attack in Jerusalem, I would say, and Reuters has reported it this way actually, that it's tantamount to saying, this is us, we're hitting you in Israel. In Jerusalem too. Some would say no, they just praised the attack. They didn't actually say they took responsibility for it. But it's almost for sure Hamas now, you know, could it be Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which is an allied organization also very tied to the Islamic Republic of Iran? It could have been, but it's pretty much Hamas. And yes, I think you're, it's right to speculate that Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, said, okay, we're sitting around talking here, you're giving in nothing. You're still ordering and praising attacks in Israel proper terrorist attacks. We're going to show you that we can, we can do something about that. And they have sent that message because just because they didn't get them today doesn't mean they can't get them get them tomorrow. It's, it's, you know, or the next day or next year. Remember things like the Munich Olympics, you know, way back when the Israelis said we're getting every, everybody who is responsible. Eventually we're, we're going to get.
- [42:55]
A
Yeah, yeah. Do you think, or do you expect any significant actions or blowback from the Qatari government or the, the, in terms of, of that relationship either with, between the Qataris in the US or the Qataris and Israelis, or is this the sort of thing that you suspect? You know, they'll make noise, they're offended, but it just blows over at some point?
- [43:23]
C
You know, the could, there's a lot we could discuss about the Qataris and who they are. And I, I am one of those who believes that the Qataris are false friends and have been for a very long time. They are supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, they are supporters of Hamas. It is true that the Israelis and the Americans for a while, and I've talked to Qatari diplomats about this, they say, look, we were doing things that the Americans and the Israelis wanted, Israelis wanted us to do, such as spending, you know, millions and millions of dollars in Gaza. And I think it was plausible. I think, I believe this at one point, okay, they're spending all this money to build. They don't want the buildings they put up in Gaza rubble, do they? But I think the end, in the end of the day, they didn't, they don't mind that. They don't care. They have more money than they know what to do with. And they're using that to buy influence. They've used that to buy influence on American college campuses to a huge extent. They've used that to buy off a lot of people, ex congressmen and others. The Biden administration made them a major non NATO ally. I think that was more a bribe than a tip. I think the idea was if we make you that, then maybe you'll be that and you'll be a serious mediator. But they haven't been serious mediators since the, since this war began after October 7, they've been really Hamas representatives. So I think our relationship with Qatari deserves to be revisited and looked at with very carefully. And I think there are those in the administration who have begun to do that.
- [45:01]
A
Do you think that. I mean, I understand exactly. I, I understand what you're saying and I think it frustrates a lot of people that, you know, that relationship. The Qataris appear on most occasions to be talking out of both sides of their mouth or playing both sides of the. The equation.
- [45:17]
C
Exactly.
- [45:18]
A
Yeah. But you could argue the same with other important allies that we have. Right. Or I would. Don't even know if I'd throw them in the ally category necessarily because there's, it's more of a pragmatic relationship. So the Pakistanis, even the Saudis at times, and others. So I'm, I'm wondering, you know, where. What do you think that redefined or repurposed relationship between the Qataris and us could look like given the real politic, given, you know, that they do serve a purpose from a national security, you know, concern for the U.S. well, I.
- [45:57]
C
Think if we, if we were to look at it seriously, we, we'd ask whether they really do. I mean, we have a huge military base in Qatar, of course, but. And that's one of the ways I think they played us because they've said not they can necessarily enforce it. They said this base can't be used to attack anybody in the Middle East. Well, what's the point of a U. S. Base there? Unless it's. It's either. Is it to protect the Qataris? I don't think that's an. In our national interests we should be able to project force out of that base, for example, to Iran if we wanted to. And that's the whole purpose of having it there. You may remember a few years back there was the Saudis and the uae, the Emiratis, both of which I think are our friends. They're not happy with the Qataris because they know the Qataris are Muslim Brotherhood. And both the uae, the Emiratis and the Saudis have banned the Muslim Brotherhood because they know what it represents. It's the gateway drug, not just Hamas, but to ISIS and to Al Qaeda and, and all the rest of it. So it's a, it's a troubled relationship. Al Jazeera spreads Muslim Brotherhood propaganda around the Arab world and well beyond, and that's controlled also by them. There's only 300, less than 350,000 actual Qataris. Everybody else who lives there, about 3 million people. They're essentially servants to this ruling class that in, in, in, in, in Qatar. And, but they have so much money and they have that money thanks to the west. Right. You know, 200 years ago they were diving for pearls then the, because the west found oil there, because the west knew how to refine oil there, because the west came up with things like the internal combustion engine. And because the west is not terribly imperialistic and doesn't say we're going to take this away from you because we have the power to do so. We say we'll buy it from you. These are among the richest people in the world and what are they doing with their riches? They're buying influence and spreading Muslim Brotherhood ideology, Islamism and jihadism. And we have to see that as more problematic than, than within that. I think we have in the past and the Saudis know that now. Just getting back, you know, Pakistan's different in. Only in this sense. We understood that they were giving safe harbor to Osama bin Laden and so we killed him in Pakistan, kind of what the Israelis did. And the Iraqis are our friends because we liberated them. But President Trump killed Qasem Soleimani, the leading terrorist of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in Iraq because he could we do that sometimes. The Saudis I do think are different than they were 20 years ago or so, 24 years ago when I formed a, this organization in the wake of 9 11, the foundation for Defensive Democracies. Because I think I've talked to Saudis about this. They recognize they helped create a Frankenstein's monster and they regret it and because that monster came after them as well. So I have a better set. I mean, it's not perfect, but I do think the Crown prince, he's not a democratizer, but he's a reformer and he has a vision of, of Saudi Arabia that is not inconsistent with American national interest.
- [49:09]
A
Yeah. And again, I think people need to, to separate out, you know, this, the, the hoped for world that, you know, we'd all like to live in and. And the real world and how you have to sometimes, you know, set aside, you know, your. Your whatever it may be, your sense of righteousness or whatever, because you. You got to exist in the world, and so you have to do things that are in your own country's national interests. Cliff, if you could stay right there, I apologize. We have to take a quick break. And we'll be right back with more from Clifford May foundation for the Defense of Democracies, right here on the PDB Situation report. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, this is for everybody out there on a job site or maybe for those of you out there working in the yard or banging around your garage, just fixing things. Now, choosing work boots used to mean sacrificing comfort for durability, right? But Brunt boots are different. That's Brunt. B R U N T. Brunt Workwear are, no doubt that, frankly, the most comfortable work boots that I've ever worn. Look, I have the Marin Softo boot, and they felt comfortable right out of the box right from the very start. And this is important. Brunt stands behind what they make. You wear them to work, and if they don't feel right, just send them back. Right? That's a company that believes in their product. Brent was tired of the workwear brands out there that are cutting corners. You work too hard, frankly, to be stuck in uncomfortable boots that. That don't hold up. So they built something better. They built boots that are insanely comfortable and built for any job site for a limited time. Now, our listeners at PDB get $10 off at Brunt when you use code PDB at checkout, right? So just head over to bruntworkware.com use the code PDB and you're good to go. And after you order, they're going to ask you where you heard about Brunt. Do us a favor and tell them the PDB sent you.
- [50:59]
C
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- [51:29]
A
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Clifford May, founder and president of the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Cliff, thanks very much for sticking around. Really appreciate that.
- [51:41]
C
My pleasure.
- [51:42]
A
Let's talk a little bit about where the IDF is, where the Israeli military is with their potential or planned or now, you know, operational activities inside Gaza City.
- [51:59]
C
Yeah, no, it's operational. I think they've, they've taken about 40% of the city. They're evacuating people. They want the civilians out. That's hard to do because Hamas says to the civilians, you need to stay and be our human shields. You can't come down into the tunnels. We're down there. You need to walk above. That's pretty hard part of doing that, though. I think Netanyahu is saying, look, we, we can stop, and here's how we stop. We stop when Hamas. And they didn't think the leaders in Doha were going to do it, but maybe, maybe they, they're still alive. They could, or others say, okay, how about this? We give up the hostages, we lay down our arms, you give us safe passage to a third country, and we're. And, and this is over. And I think it could end tomorrow. It could have ended any day between now and for now, back to October 8th of 2023 at any point. I think what, what ninja. I was saying is we can end this, but you got to, you got to give us back Those hostages, the 20 or so who are living, and the bodies of the dead. Now, if not, we are going to evacuate the city. We're going to do very much with the, you know, what the US Forces did in Mosul and Fallujah and other places. If you read people like John Spencer, you're familiar with, they talk about how this has been done in the past. We're going to evacuate the civilians. We're going to come in, we're going to, we're going to destroy the tunnels, and we're going to destroy what's left of Hamas in Gaza City. And we think that's pretty much all. And then, yes, there's a lot to do to figure out what comes next after that. But I, but, but, but I think Netanyahu is. Now, I'm not going to tell you this. No conflict, no dispute, no disagreements in Israel over this plan. I think there, we know that that's the case. The Chief of Staff, Yal Zamir, would prefer not to do this, but he's gone. But he's a good soldier and he's going to do this. It's. It's hard work. They're tired. The reserves have to be called up again in order to make this work. But I think it's going to But I think it's going to happen unless Hamas says, okay, we will give back those we have abducted and we're going to lay down our arms and they don't even have to say it's a full surrender. But that, but, and that's kind of what President Trump has called for, if you think about his, his last proposal.
- [54:15]
A
Look, Hamas, you know, particularly their political bureau and, and you know, the, the communications group, they're not unsophisticated. Right. So do you think that part of this has been because they've been stringing this along? There's always some reason why they, they decide against a proposal or, you know, a negotiation and, you know, is part of it, they believe they can outlast Netanyahu. Meaning, you know, the internal pressure that he gets, the divisions within his cabinet, the, the pressure from the population. Do you think that, you know, Hamas's calculation here is, you know, if we just sit down here in the tunnels long enough and don't give up the hostages, you know, Netanyahu might, might just go away?
- [54:56]
C
Yeah, Netanyahu might fall, the Israelis might collapse among themselves and fight among themselves. That's not hard to see. The so called international community is behind us, which kind of is the case. The UN to an extent I didn't understand, I must say in the past has been not just complicit with Hamas, but has been interwoven with Hamas to an extraordinary extent. The propaganda that's come out, the lies about genocide, about famine, about all that stuff, despite that, they thought, you know, the idea that people like Macron in France is going to, during the current UN General assembly session is going to say, what we need here is a Palestinian state and we're going to recognize one another saying Hamas won't be part of it. But Hamas figures, hey, if there's a Palestinian state and we're alive, we'll be part of it.
- [55:46]
B
We know how to do that.
- [55:48]
C
Remind your listeners. 2005, the Israelis leave Gaza entirely. And by 2007, Hamas has pushed out the Palestinian Authority and its rival Fatah, and they haven't been back. Mahmoud Abbas, who's the head of the Palestinian Authority, he's not gotten a tan on a Gaza beach over all these 20 years. He hasn't dared to visit. So this, it's a recog what Hamas is going to say and with justice, the international community is rewarding us for what we did. They're going to do it at the UN in this General Assembly. So, yeah, we can still win. We didn't win Militarily we don't have, but we can still win diplomatically. We can still win in other ways.
- [56:28]
A
Yeah. Have you heard any plausible scenarios for a post conflict governing plan in, in Gaza? Because I've always been confused by this notion that somehow the Palestinian Authority would be playing a role given, given they're not, they're, they're saying they're not popular is, is a diplomatic thing to, to say. But you know, I, I, I haven't seen and it seems like, you know, it's almost like we're rushing say well any deal, just let's get a deal. Right. And you think well what do you want to do? You want to put a lipstick on a pig and, and then just let you know the violence continue, let the conflict continue because you're going to have Hamas still operational and in control. But have you seen any, any plausible scenarios for, for, for governance in Gaza?
- [57:21]
C
Yeah, it's, I mean I think the Israelis figure correctly that if we really defeat Hamas decisively, there's a better chance, much better chance that the Saudis, the Emirates and others will, the other, they won't come in if Hamas is, still has the guns and is in control. If they're not, then they may be willing to come in with their own troops and, and begin to help get things in some kind of order. There are and have been families in Gaza that are prominent that could take a lot of responsibility. Again, they have tried to do so, they have done so in some places. They will be and have been. You can see go online right now on, you know, on Twitter, you're on X. You'll see it where Hamas has beaten up those who are trying to take responsibility for their own parts of the country, who are trying to, who won't give up food, all that sort of stuff. It's not easy. The Israelis don't want to run the place. They pull back to buffer zones and that would be fine. So you know, I hate to say this but you remember that at the, you know, look, the Ottoman Empire ruled this area for hundreds of years. Then the British Empire ruled it and then when the British pulled out, the Israelis declared independence. But when the British ruled it, it was under a mandate from the League of Nations. Mandatory Palestine. What was that mandate? The mandate was try to create a country or two countries or whatever in this place. Maybe you'd kind of need another mandate for this area with the Saudis perhaps and the Emiratis and some others taking some responsibility for it. And I think they'll do so if it's reasonably safe, but it's only reasonably safe if Hamas is decisively defeated.
- [59:10]
A
Yeah, I would, I agree with the concept. I would argue that none of the regional players have ever shown any willingness to do more. I mean, look. Okay, fair enough. There's a very large, you know, Palestinian refugee community that exists in Jordan. Jordan doesn't want to take any more. You know, he build a large wall. Apparently walls can work sometimes and keeping people out. So some of the players haven't shown much willingness to. To engage. But I take your point.
- [59:38]
C
You make a very good point about Egypt. Because people forget the Israelis took Gaza not from a Palestinian entity, but from Egypt who had administered it since 1948. After the first in war of independence, the Israelis fought. This was Egyptian territory. It could be again, the Egyptians, as you say, don't want it. They don't want Palestinians, even as refugees on their territory. They block them from getting out. That's contrary to international law. People are in distress. You're supposed to take them in. The Sinai is very large. Egypt should take some responsibility for it. They consider themselves one of the leaders of the Arab and Muslim world. Why not? But you're also right that it's going to be difficult to get any of them to take any responsibility.
- [60:25]
A
Yeah, I think ultimately, I mean, the problem's going to be, I think, internal issues within Israel as opposed to. Look, I mean that urban combat that's taking place and will take place in Gaza City. You know, you referenced Fallujah.
- [60:44]
C
Yeah.
- [60:45]
A
Incredibly ugly. Right. Incredibly complex and difficult from a military perspective, particularly with an outfit like Hamas. Have you seen any credible numbers? Two parts to this. Two, if I, if I could, two parts to this. The time that we've got left, credible numbers for the, the current strength of Hamas in terms of fighters. And then the other part is any credible numbers for the degree of support from the population of Gaza for Hamas.
- [61:21]
C
Still, I, I don't think we have credible numbers. I'm sure the IDF has some concept of how many people can fit in those tunnels, although they didn't understand how extensive those tunnels were before this war started. That was a clear intelligence failure in terms of, you know, it's very hard in a place like Gaza City to do proper polling and people are not going to say what they actually think. My guess is that, and I think there's, if not data, good anecdotes for this, that it's not that Gazans who are not pro Hamas or Gazans in general think, oh, we should love the Israelis and have, you know, Kumbaya with them. But they may think, look at the damage that's been done to our lives by Hamas's decision to invade Israel and stage a pogrom. It's going to take years to get back from this. Do we want to continue like this, or would we like to have homes to go back to rather than tents, food to eat, basic social services, hospitals. Things weren't so bad in Gaza. They were better than most people understood before this war began because the Gazans were recipients per capita of huge amounts of aid and the UN was providing all the social services. I mean, you know, so that Gaza City, even now, if you take a look at Gaza City, it's going to be worse over the days ahead. It doesn't look worse than, you know, Amman. And people should also remember, you know, what Jordan is. Jordan is, is 3/4 of historic Palestine. That's what it is. It has a mostly Palestinian population because it's eastern Palestine. The, the king, I have respect for the king, but he was deported from Arabia because the Saudis didn't want another royal family there. And so the British installed him in what became to be called Jordan. There's no historic country called Jordan. There's a river called Jordan. So this is a power, you know, could there be some kind of confederation between Jordan and Gaza and maybe the West Bank? Theoretically, there could. Israel could even be part of that confederation as long as Gaza and the west bank were demilitarized entirely there. So there are ideas, but first you have to have get to a point where there is a cessation of hostilities. I'm not talking about peace, talking about a cessation of hostilities. And Palestinian leaders who at least say, getting back to your question, not that we love the Israelis, but it's not in our interest to be in constant conflict with the Israelis any longer. Let's find a way to rebuild our lives.
- [64:10]
A
Yeah, you would think that from, you know, I guess this is, this is sort of that Western mindset, and you always have to be careful to mirror your own ideas and logic and values on other cultures. But you would think that the citizens of Gaza would look around and go, you know what? Hamas has been here ruling since 2007. Did they improve our lives? Did they do anything really at the end of the day for us other than just use us as, as human shields, steal the aid that was meant for us, and now get us into this incredibly difficult and sad and tragic situation as a result of their actions again on 7October. But I don't know what, what else you would expect, right. They're a creature of the Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is on record, constantly is saying their objective is to destroy Israel. Therefore Hamas's objective, of course, is to destroy Israel. So, you know, that was their, their purpose. Their purpose wasn't to improve the lives of the Gazan civilians, you know, ever since they've been in charge since 2007. But, you know, Cliff, I'm going to get off my soapbox now and what I'm going to do is say thank you very much. Clifford May, founder, President, foundation for the Defense of Democracies Very much appreciate your insight, your experience, and I hope you'll come back and sit with us again here in the not too distant future.
- [65:30]
C
And my honor, my pleasure to be with you, Mike. Anytime.
- [65:33]
A
Thank you very much, Cliff. Talk to you soon, man. Well, yeah, the complexity of that situation is, is astounding. That's all the time we have for this week's PDB situation report. If you have any questions or comments, maybe you've got a humorous anecdote or two, well, send them along. Right. You can reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com you know what we do with your cards and your letters and your faxes and your telegrams. Every every month we, you know, we, we sit down, Carl the mailman drops off another mailbag. We go through it and the entire PDB team sits and, you know, has some beers, looks at the questions, takes some of them and mushes them into what we call an ask me anything episode. We put those out every month. So keep the cards and letters coming.
- [66:21]
C
Is what I'm saying.
- [66:23]
A
Now, finally, to listen to the podcast of the show ad free. You could do that, and you know you can do it very simply. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting BDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker, and until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. And Doug Limu and I always tell you to customize your car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. But now we want you to feel it. Cue the emu music, Limu.
- [67:07]
D
Save yourself money today. Increase your wealth. Customize and save. We save.
- [67:16]
A
That may have been too much feeling. Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty Liberty, Liberty. Liberty Savings Ferry unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates Excludes Massachusetts.