The President's Daily Brief: Situation Report | September 6th, 2025

Episode Title: Inside Russia: How Putin’s Economy Is Collapsing & Beijing’s Weapons Parade
Date: September 6, 2025
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Guests: Konstantin Samoilov (Inside Russia), Brandon Weickert (National Interest)
—

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Mike Baker provides a concise, intelligence-informed briefing on crucial global developments. The main themes are the internal collapse of Russia's economy amid continued war in Ukraine and the global significance of China’s recent military parade. The episode features in-depth analysis from Russian expatriate Konstantin Samoilov and national security expert Brandon Weickert. Key topics include the impact of sanctions, shifting Russian public perceptions, the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes within Russia, strategic decisions around sanctions enforcement, and China's advancing military capabilities.

Inside Russia: War’s Toll on Society and Economy

The Alaska Summit: Perceptions and Propaganda

(02:50 – 05:25)

• Public Awareness: The Trump–Putin Alaska summit was heavily publicized in Russia, both as political theater and propaganda.
• Propaganda Machine: Russian state media orchestrated an extensive campaign, including coverage of Russian heritage in Alaska, with over 500 reporters sent.
• Domestic Response: Most Russians saw the summit as a victory and a personal triumph for Putin, further bolstering his standing.

“By the time the meeting ended, most Russians knew about it, watched, and were fed propaganda about it... Russians considered it a victory of Russia, the country, over the United States and the collective West. Some call him Vladimir the Great after that.”
— Konstantin Samoilov (04:37)

Is Russia’s Economy Really Collapsing?

(05:25 – 09:10)

• Shifting Narratives: Western media changed their stance last November, from “sanctions don't work” to “sanctions are crippling Russia.”
• Economic Reality: Russia’s economy is in severe distress — it lost its main energy customers (Europe for gas, most of the world for oil except China and India), and is selling oil at much lower prices.
• Reserves Depleted: Large financial reserves accumulated over decades have now been spent supporting the war effort.
• Record Deficits: “Right now, the budget deficit is historically high,” Samoilov emphasizes.

"Russia is spending so much more than it's earning... And that's what basically fed Russian economy... But guess what? The money is gone. They've spent it all."
— Konstantin Samoilov (08:05)

Mood on the Russian Street: Fatigue and Forced Support

(09:10 – 12:18)

• Economic Strain: Wages stagnant or cut, prices rising, and living standards falling — except for “war profiteers” (10–15 million people in war industries).
• Disbelief in Propaganda: Most people ignore government spin because daily life doesn’t match the narrative.
• Support for War & Putin: Despite fatigue and hardship, support for the war and Putin is stronger; propaganda now frames the conflict not as “against the West” but as a direct war with Ukraine.
• Psychological Impact: Russians want the war to end, but only on their terms, with victory and no territorial concessions.

“...General mood in Russia, economic mood, is life is getting more difficult and there is not much hope, despite what the propaganda is telling Russian people. It's been telling for three and a half years and now they just simply don't believe anymore.”
— Konstantin Samoilov (10:49)

Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia: Shattering Illusions

(15:58 – 21:05)

• Bursting the Bubble: Many Russians tried to ignore the war, but successful Ukrainian attacks on airports, railways, and oil refineries this summer ended that denial.
• Infrastructure Targeted: Repeated drone strikes forced people to confront the reality of war — airports, railways, and especially oil refineries being damaged.
• Massive Shortages: As of August 26, Russia lost 17% of its oil refining capacity. Gasoline shortages, rationing (using old Soviet-style “talons/checks”), and long gas lines are now widespread.

“For the first time in 35 years since the collapse of the USSR...we saw the shortages of gasoline at the gas stations...some provinces introduced... rationings... This is 2025, Mike. That's unbelievable. In Russia they brought the checks back. They are back.”
— Konstantin Samoilov (19:33)

• Attempted Censorship: Initial reports of shortages were widespread online, but Russian authorities are now actively suppressing information.

Sanctions & the West: Missed Leverage and Geopolitical Hesitance

Why Not Sanction China?

(23:20 – 27:54)

• Reluctance to Pressure China: US has been forceful with India (the #2 recipient of Russian energy), adding secondary sanctions, but has hesitated to sanction China (#1 recipient).
• Diplomatic Calculations: Baker and Samoilov posit that ongoing US-China trade talks and economic interdependence may explain this restraint.

“I'm surprised by immunity of China from sanctions. Let's put it this way... Instead, they stopped enforcing [the effective sanctions] and started appeasing Vladimir Putin. So, I'm amazed by that.”
— Konstantin Samoilov (24:20)

• Alternatives to Targeting China: Samoilov insists the US could still effectively cripple Russia by targeting India, Greek shipowners, and other actors supporting Russia’s energy trade, even if China is untouched.

Without Economic Pain, No Negotiation

(27:54 – 28:59)

• Stalemate: Putin will only consider real negotiations if the economic situation becomes untenable.
• Western Military Aid: While the West discusses sending troops to Ukraine, Samoilov and Baker agree this would be ineffective without greater economic measures on Russia.

“...If Putin doesn't feel more pain, if there's not more pressure, he doesn't see an upside to sitting down and having any sort of meaningful discussion.”
— Mike Baker (27:54)

China’s Military Parade: New Era, New Hardware

(32:14 – 53:09)

The Parade as Power Play

(32:14 – 33:19)

• Intention: China’s military parade is described as both pageantry and a geopolitical warning, showcasing advanced hypersonic missiles, long-range air defenses, swarms of drones, and electronic warfare capabilities.
• Clear Signal: The display was a “pointed message” from Beijing to Washington and the West.

“The message was pretty clear. Beijing wants the world and especially Washington to know and to see just how sharp its teeth have gotten.”
— Mike Baker (32:33)

Moving Beyond Russian Tech: China’s Military Innovation

(33:19 – 35:51)

• Technological Leap: China showcased less Russian-based tech, indicating a successful transition to indigenous defense production.
• Strategic Independence: China is less reliant on foreign (even Russian) parts, aiming for competitive autonomy in the global arms market.

“...The Chinese are starting to build their own stuff from scratch, which indicates they've switched away from being mere imitators to being innovators.”
— Brandon Weickert (34:36)

Mass Production vs. US Capability

(35:51 – 37:52)

• US Lag in Manufacturing: The US lost mass-production capabilities by offshoring industry in past decades, making it unable to match China’s output.
• Crowding Out US Edge: While US technology may still lead in certain areas, China’s ability to rapidly mass produce “good enough” systems is a strategic advantage.

“…China’s competing with us not just for manufacturing jobs, but also for those white collar knowledge-based jobs…”
— Brandon Weickert (36:14)

Worrisome Weapons

(38:54 – 41:09)

• Top Concerns: Weickert highlights:

  • Quantity and sophistication of China's directed energy weapons (DEWs)
  • Their hypersonic missiles
  • Advanced drone systems, especially undersea and helicopter drones

• US Shortfall: US lacks both matching systems and adequate defenses.

"We don't have...active defenses against hypersonic weapons. So this is a problem."
— Brandon Weickert (52:53)

What are Directed Energy Weapons?

(40:09 – 41:09)

• Description: Weickert: They can “literally fry an incoming missile or drone,” not like sci-fi lasers but real, fieldable electromagnetic weapons designed for air defense.

Strategic Implications: Alliances, India’s Pivot, and Geopolitical Shifts

Multipolar Anxiety at the Parade

(43:09 – 44:55)

• Not Just Pageantry: The parade coincided with a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, signaling a realignment: India, once a rival to China, is “pivoting into a friendlier position with China and Russia.”
• Rise of the ‘Ideology of Resistance’: Loosely aligned powers aiming to resist Western (esp. US) influence; includes Russia, China, India, Turkey, Iran, North Korea. China now leads a potent, though non-binding, coalition.

“I keep referring to this as the, the ideology of resistance... Notably Russia, India and China, against the United States...”
— Brandon Weickert (43:39)

China and Russia: Partners of Convenience

(47:33 – 49:28)

• Strategic Usefulness: China benefits from a weakened Russia while enjoying discounted energy and industrial benefits.
• Tripolar World: China uses conflict between Russia and the West to expand its regional ambitions, especially in the Indo-Pacific, while watching Russia become dependent.

“...A tripolar system...one party is going to constantly try to get the other two majors to duke it out to weaken those two competitors...”
— Brandon Weickert (48:08)

• Ukraine War’s Impact: If Ukraine war ends, the China–Russia “bromance” will likely fizzle; current alliance is built on necessity.

North Korea–Russia: Dangerous Transfers

(50:09 – 51:57)

• Weapon & Tech Transfers: Russia, desperate for manpower and industrial support, is providing North Korea with advanced military technology — including hypersonics and submarine propulsion, both big threats for the US and South Korea.

Hypersonic Weapons: The Arms Race

(52:20 – 52:53)

• Who’s Winning?: Russia leads, closely followed by China. The US lags (“still in the development stage”) and lacks operational defenses against these threats — a major strategic vulnerability.

Notable Quotes & Moments

On Russian Propaganda and Social Perception:

“Russians want...the war to stop on their terms. They want to be victorious. They don’t want to give up territories...” — Konstantin Samoilov (11:38)

On the Reluctance to Sanction China:

“I'm amazed by that...” — Konstantin Samoilov, on US reluctance to sanction China (24:20)

On China's Military Advancement:

“It's worrisome if what you're saying is that that's no longer the case...” — Mike Baker, on China moving beyond imitation to innovation (37:06)

On Russia’s Internal Collapse:

“This is 2025, Mike. That's unbelievable. In Russia they brought the checks back. They are back.” — Konstantin Samoilov (19:33)

On Hypersonic Gap:

“Russia has hypersonic working, hypersonic weapons in abundance. The Chinese are right behind them. We are still in the development stage...” — Brandon Weickert (52:33)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Russia’s Alaska Summit Perceptions: 02:50 – 05:25
• Russia’s Economic Collapse: 05:25 – 09:10
• Public Attitude & Fatigue: 09:10 – 12:18
• Ukrainian Attacks Inside Russia: 15:58 – 21:05
• Sanctions Strategies & US Policy: 23:20 – 27:54
• China’s Military Parade—Implications: 32:14 – 35:51
• China’s Indigenous Weapons Capability: 35:51 – 37:52
• Weapons of Concern: 38:54 – 41:09
• The New World Order, Multipolarity: 43:09 – 44:55
• China–Russia–North Korea Dynamics: 47:33 – 51:57
• Hypersonic Arms Race: 52:20 – 52:53

Takeaways for Listeners

• Russian society is under growing stress, but support for Putin and the war remains high despite widespread economic hardship.
• Sanctions have deeply eroded Russia’s economy, but strategic hesitation by the US (notably toward China) is blunting their ultimate effect.
• Ukrainian strikes inside Russia are breaking public denial and causing real disruption across the country.
• China’s growing military innovation and mass production capacity, highlighted in its latest parade, signals a new era in global power competition.
• Shifting alliances, especially involving India, are reshaping the global order toward multipolarity.
• The West’s lag in hypersonic technology and mass production of arms is a strategic vulnerability.
• The Russia–China axis remains transactional and opportunistic; North Korea is a major beneficiary of current conflicts.

For more insights, follow Konstantin Samoilov on YouTube (“Inside Russia”) and Brandon Weickert’s work at The National Interest.