PDB Situation Report | September 6th, 2025: Inside Russia: How Putin’s Economy Is Collapsing & Beijing’s Weapons Parade

Summary

The President's Daily Brief: Situation Report | September 6th, 2025

Episode Title: Inside Russia: How Putin’s Economy Is Collapsing & Beijing’s Weapons Parade
Date: September 6, 2025
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Guests: Konstantin Samoilov (Inside Russia), Brandon Weickert (National Interest)
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Episode Overview

In this episode, host Mike Baker provides a concise, intelligence-informed briefing on crucial global developments. The main themes are the internal collapse of Russia's economy amid continued war in Ukraine and the global significance of China’s recent military parade. The episode features in-depth analysis from Russian expatriate Konstantin Samoilov and national security expert Brandon Weickert. Key topics include the impact of sanctions, shifting Russian public perceptions, the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes within Russia, strategic decisions around sanctions enforcement, and China's advancing military capabilities.

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Inside Russia: War’s Toll on Society and Economy

The Alaska Summit: Perceptions and Propaganda

(02:50 – 05:25)

• Public Awareness: The Trump–Putin Alaska summit was heavily publicized in Russia, both as political theater and propaganda.
• Propaganda Machine: Russian state media orchestrated an extensive campaign, including coverage of Russian heritage in Alaska, with over 500 reporters sent.
• Domestic Response: Most Russians saw the summit as a victory and a personal triumph for Putin, further bolstering his standing.

“By the time the meeting ended, most Russians knew about it, watched, and were fed propaganda about it... Russians considered it a victory of Russia, the country, over the United States and the collective West. Some call him Vladimir the Great after that.”
— Konstantin Samoilov (04:37)

Is Russia’s Economy Really Collapsing?

(05:25 – 09:10)

• Shifting Narratives: Western media changed their stance last November, from “sanctions don't work” to “sanctions are crippling Russia.”
• Economic Reality: Russia’s economy is in severe distress — it lost its main energy customers (Europe for gas, most of the world for oil except China and India), and is selling oil at much lower prices.
• Reserves Depleted: Large financial reserves accumulated over decades have now been spent supporting the war effort.
• Record Deficits: “Right now, the budget deficit is historically high,” Samoilov emphasizes.

"Russia is spending so much more than it's earning... And that's what basically fed Russian economy... But guess what? The money is gone. They've spent it all."
— Konstantin Samoilov (08:05)

Mood on the Russian Street: Fatigue and Forced Support

(09:10 – 12:18)

• Economic Strain: Wages stagnant or cut, prices rising, and living standards falling — except for “war profiteers” (10–15 million people in war industries).
• Disbelief in Propaganda: Most people ignore government spin because daily life doesn’t match the narrative.
• Support for War & Putin: Despite fatigue and hardship, support for the war and Putin is stronger; propaganda now frames the conflict not as “against the West” but as a direct war with Ukraine.
• Psychological Impact: Russians want the war to end, but only on their terms, with victory and no territorial concessions.

“...General mood in Russia, economic mood, is life is getting more difficult and there is not much hope, despite what the propaganda is telling Russian people. It's been telling for three and a half years and now they just simply don't believe anymore.”
— Konstantin Samoilov (10:49)

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Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia: Shattering Illusions

(15:58 – 21:05)

• Bursting the Bubble: Many Russians tried to ignore the war, but successful Ukrainian attacks on airports, railways, and oil refineries this summer ended that denial.
• Infrastructure Targeted: Repeated drone strikes forced people to confront the reality of war — airports, railways, and especially oil refineries being damaged.
• Massive Shortages: As of August 26, Russia lost 17% of its oil refining capacity. Gasoline shortages, rationing (using old Soviet-style “talons/checks”), and long gas lines are now widespread.

“For the first time in 35 years since the collapse of the USSR...we saw the shortages of gasoline at the gas stations...some provinces introduced... rationings... This is 2025, Mike. That's unbelievable. In Russia they brought the checks back. They are back.”
— Konstantin Samoilov (19:33)

• Attempted Censorship: Initial reports of shortages were widespread online, but Russian authorities are now actively suppressing information.

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Sanctions & the West: Missed Leverage and Geopolitical Hesitance

Why Not Sanction China?

(23:20 – 27:54)

• Reluctance to Pressure China: US has been forceful with India (the #2 recipient of Russian energy), adding secondary sanctions, but has hesitated to sanction China (#1 recipient).
• Diplomatic Calculations: Baker and Samoilov posit that ongoing US-China trade talks and economic interdependence may explain this restraint.

“I'm surprised by immunity of China from sanctions. Let's put it this way... Instead, they stopped enforcing [the effective sanctions] and started appeasing Vladimir Putin. So, I'm amazed by that.”
— Konstantin Samoilov (24:20)

• Alternatives to Targeting China: Samoilov insists the US could still effectively cripple Russia by targeting India, Greek shipowners, and other actors supporting Russia’s energy trade, even if China is untouched.

Without Economic Pain, No Negotiation

(27:54 – 28:59)

• Stalemate: Putin will only consider real negotiations if the economic situation becomes untenable.
• Western Military Aid: While the West discusses sending troops to Ukraine, Samoilov and Baker agree this would be ineffective without greater economic measures on Russia.

“...If Putin doesn't feel more pain, if there's not more pressure, he doesn't see an upside to sitting down and having any sort of meaningful discussion.”
— Mike Baker (27:54)

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China’s Military Parade: New Era, New Hardware

(32:14 – 53:09)

The Parade as Power Play

(32:14 – 33:19)

• Intention: China’s military parade is described as both pageantry and a geopolitical warning, showcasing advanced hypersonic missiles, long-range air defenses, swarms of drones, and electronic warfare capabilities.
• Clear Signal: The display was a “pointed message” from Beijing to Washington and the West.

“The message was pretty clear. Beijing wants the world and especially Washington to know and to see just how sharp its teeth have gotten.”
— Mike Baker (32:33)

Moving Beyond Russian Tech: China’s Military Innovation

(33:19 – 35:51)

• Technological Leap: China showcased less Russian-based tech, indicating a successful transition to indigenous defense production.
• Strategic Independence: China is less reliant on foreign (even Russian) parts, aiming for competitive autonomy in the global arms market.

“...The Chinese are starting to build their own stuff from scratch, which indicates they've switched away from being mere imitators to being innovators.”
— Brandon Weickert (34:36)

Mass Production vs. US Capability

(35:51 – 37:52)

• US Lag in Manufacturing: The US lost mass-production capabilities by offshoring industry in past decades, making it unable to match China’s output.
• Crowding Out US Edge: While US technology may still lead in certain areas, China’s ability to rapidly mass produce “good enough” systems is a strategic advantage.

“…China’s competing with us not just for manufacturing jobs, but also for those white collar knowledge-based jobs…”
— Brandon Weickert (36:14)

Worrisome Weapons

(38:54 – 41:09)

• Top Concerns: Weickert highlights:

  • Quantity and sophistication of China's directed energy weapons (DEWs)
  • Their hypersonic missiles
  • Advanced drone systems, especially undersea and helicopter drones

• US Shortfall: US lacks both matching systems and adequate defenses.

"We don't have...active defenses against hypersonic weapons. So this is a problem."
— Brandon Weickert (52:53)

What are Directed Energy Weapons?

(40:09 – 41:09)

• Description: Weickert: They can “literally fry an incoming missile or drone,” not like sci-fi lasers but real, fieldable electromagnetic weapons designed for air defense.

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Strategic Implications: Alliances, India’s Pivot, and Geopolitical Shifts

Multipolar Anxiety at the Parade

(43:09 – 44:55)

• Not Just Pageantry: The parade coincided with a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, signaling a realignment: India, once a rival to China, is “pivoting into a friendlier position with China and Russia.”
• Rise of the ‘Ideology of Resistance’: Loosely aligned powers aiming to resist Western (esp. US) influence; includes Russia, China, India, Turkey, Iran, North Korea. China now leads a potent, though non-binding, coalition.

“I keep referring to this as the, the ideology of resistance... Notably Russia, India and China, against the United States...”
— Brandon Weickert (43:39)

China and Russia: Partners of Convenience

(47:33 – 49:28)

• Strategic Usefulness: China benefits from a weakened Russia while enjoying discounted energy and industrial benefits.
• Tripolar World: China uses conflict between Russia and the West to expand its regional ambitions, especially in the Indo-Pacific, while watching Russia become dependent.

“...A tripolar system...one party is going to constantly try to get the other two majors to duke it out to weaken those two competitors...”
— Brandon Weickert (48:08)

• Ukraine War’s Impact: If Ukraine war ends, the China–Russia “bromance” will likely fizzle; current alliance is built on necessity.

North Korea–Russia: Dangerous Transfers

(50:09 – 51:57)

• Weapon & Tech Transfers: Russia, desperate for manpower and industrial support, is providing North Korea with advanced military technology — including hypersonics and submarine propulsion, both big threats for the US and South Korea.

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Hypersonic Weapons: The Arms Race

(52:20 – 52:53)

• Who’s Winning?: Russia leads, closely followed by China. The US lags (“still in the development stage”) and lacks operational defenses against these threats — a major strategic vulnerability.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

On Russian Propaganda and Social Perception:

“Russians want...the war to stop on their terms. They want to be victorious. They don’t want to give up territories...” — Konstantin Samoilov (11:38)

On the Reluctance to Sanction China:

“I'm amazed by that...” — Konstantin Samoilov, on US reluctance to sanction China (24:20)

On China's Military Advancement:

“It's worrisome if what you're saying is that that's no longer the case...” — Mike Baker, on China moving beyond imitation to innovation (37:06)

On Russia’s Internal Collapse:

“This is 2025, Mike. That's unbelievable. In Russia they brought the checks back. They are back.” — Konstantin Samoilov (19:33)

On Hypersonic Gap:

“Russia has hypersonic working, hypersonic weapons in abundance. The Chinese are right behind them. We are still in the development stage...” — Brandon Weickert (52:33)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Russia’s Alaska Summit Perceptions: 02:50 – 05:25
• Russia’s Economic Collapse: 05:25 – 09:10
• Public Attitude & Fatigue: 09:10 – 12:18
• Ukrainian Attacks Inside Russia: 15:58 – 21:05
• Sanctions Strategies & US Policy: 23:20 – 27:54
• China’s Military Parade—Implications: 32:14 – 35:51
• China’s Indigenous Weapons Capability: 35:51 – 37:52
• Weapons of Concern: 38:54 – 41:09
• The New World Order, Multipolarity: 43:09 – 44:55
• China–Russia–North Korea Dynamics: 47:33 – 51:57
• Hypersonic Arms Race: 52:20 – 52:53

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Takeaways for Listeners

• Russian society is under growing stress, but support for Putin and the war remains high despite widespread economic hardship.
• Sanctions have deeply eroded Russia’s economy, but strategic hesitation by the US (notably toward China) is blunting their ultimate effect.
• Ukrainian strikes inside Russia are breaking public denial and causing real disruption across the country.
• China’s growing military innovation and mass production capacity, highlighted in its latest parade, signals a new era in global power competition.
• Shifting alliances, especially involving India, are reshaping the global order toward multipolarity.
• The West’s lag in hypersonic technology and mass production of arms is a strategic vulnerability.
• The Russia–China axis remains transactional and opportunistic; North Korea is a major beneficiary of current conflicts.

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For more insights, follow Konstantin Samoilov on YouTube (“Inside Russia”) and Brandon Weickert’s work at The National Interest.

Transcript

[Brandon Weickert]

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[Konstantin Samoilov]

Papa.

[Mike Baker]

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome to the PDB Situation report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the conflict in Ukraine rages on and world leaders scramble for a solution. But the war isn't just being fought on the front lines. Inside Russia, daily life is being reshaped by sanctions, by propaganda and a growing sense of fatigue. We'll be joined by Konstantin Samoilov of Inside Russia for some insight into that. Later in the show, China rolls out its latest military hardware at a massive parade in Beijing. Did you see that? Did you go? Did you get an invite? Showcasing weapons designed to send a message to the West. Brandon Weickert, senior national security editor at the National Interest, joins us to break down what we saw this week. But first, today's Situation Report. Spotlight. As the war in Ukraine grinds on with frankly no end in sight, efforts by world leaders to bring it to a close well continue to be stalled. The recent summit in Alaska between Presidents Trump and Vladimir Putin produced no breakthrough. And on the battlefield, well, the fighting only has intensified. But while the headlines focus on missiles and troop movements, the conflict is reshaping life deep inside Russia. Sanctions are squeezing the economy, propaganda dominates the airwaves and an undercurrent of fatigue runs through daily life. For many Russians, this war has become an ever present backdrop, affecting everything from what they can buy to what they can say. Joining us now is Konstantin Samoilov, a Russian expatriate who left in 2022 when Putin declared mobilization. He now lives in Uzbekistan. And you can find him, and I suggest you do on YouTube at Inside Russia. That's YouTube at Inside Russia. Check out his work. Konstantin, welcome back to the SITUATION report.

[Konstantin Samoilov]

Thank you so much for having me. It's fantastic to be back.

[Mike Baker]

I want to start from the Alaska summit. The much publicized Alaska Summit with Trump and Putin. What, what was the response, what was the reaction to that from inside Russia? I mean, right. We saw, we saw what state media said about it. We saw what, what, you know, the US And Western media were saying about it. But, you know, can you talk to us about what the, the, the average person on the streets in Russia thought about that meeting or did they know much about it at all?

[Konstantin Samoilov]

A lot of Russians certainly are aware that the meeting took place. And the reason why they're aware is because the meeting was made a big show in Russia. I've talked to quite a few people in the west and they talk about the reaction. What is the reaction? Well, the thing is, before we talk about the reaction, there was a pre show as soon as Russian Putin and Russian propaganda learned that he was going to visit Alaska. Unthinkable really. Then they started making this show of President's visit to the United States of America to reignite relations with the United States between America and Russia. And they sent about 500 reporters and support group to Alaska a couple days prior. And they were filming a lot and they were showing Russian heritage in Alaska. And it was probably the biggest show of the summer in Russia. So by the time the meeting ended, most Russians knew about it, most Russians watched, most Russians were fed propaganda about it. You know, the minds were engineered in a certain way. Now, it's been quite some time since that meeting took place. And Russians consider, regular Russian people considered a victory of Russia, the country over the United States and the collective west complete, another victory. And they also considered Putin's personal victory. Putin scored so many political points, support points with Russians inside Russia at that meeting. He's elevated his status. Some call him Vladimir the Great after that.

[Mike Baker]

It's interesting. I think there was a general mood here in the States. I mean, you always have to factor in the politics in the states. Right. So, you know, sometimes you get the impression it doesn't matter what Trump does. Right. There's going to be a considerable, you know, pushback from the media, a large, large part of the media, and obviously from the Democrat side, regardless of what he does. So I think a lot of people in the states approached this summit with Putin in kind of a skeptical manner. Right. They were, they didn't necessarily anticipate there would be any breakthroughs because frankly, Putin hasn't shown any willingness to have meaningful negotiation. So I think the end result of this summit, apparently there appeared to be no real breakthroughs. Didn't surprise a lot of people. Shifting off that this, the summit briefly I kind of want to, I want to visit this narrative that has taken hold, I think in parts of the Western media. And it talks about the Russian economy sort of being on the brink of disaster. It talks about fatigue of the Russian population over the war in Ukraine. And from your perspective, how much of that is accurate and how much do you think is wishful thinking on the part of Western media and others?

[Konstantin Samoilov]

Most of it is accurate. I've been following very closely what Western media says about situation in Russia. Western media's position changed last November because before they had been saying that Russian economy was going strong, circumventing sanctions and that sanctions weren't affecting Russian people's lives and so forth. And then just like that, they switched in November they started saying, oh, the sanctions are working. After all, you know, Russian economy is under a lot of pressure. Russian economy is collapsing. That is my point of view. I am following it closely. Russia is spending so much more than it's earning. And it was earning primarily from selling two bread makers, natural gas to Europe and oil to different customers all over the world. And it's not selling its loss. The best customer, Europe, and it's not selling oil to anyone pretty much, except for China and India. And it's selling at very low prices. So it earns so much less and it spends so much more. And it's been going on for past two and a half years. And the reason Russian economy is still alive is because it had accumulated an incredible amount of reserves by doing just that. Selling oil and natural gas for two decades was very right, very smart economic policy of taking some of the profits and saving them. And that's what basically fed Russian economy, war economy fed military industrial complex for, you know, since the start of the war. But guess what? The money is gone. They've spent it all. And right now the budget deficit is historically high. And things are happening on the ground in Russia that are not, not pretty.

[Mike Baker]

What about the general mood of the, of the public in terms of their, their attitude towards the war?

[Konstantin Samoilov]

Let's divide into economic mood and political mood. Okay. Economic mood is everyone is suffering now. Most. Most. There are certain number of people in Russia who are war profiteers, for example, who work at the war factories and earn so much more now than before, who supply products to Ministry of Defense, who are subcontractors. My estimate from 10 to 15 million people who are earning lots more money now than before due to the war. I call them the war profiteers. The rest are suffering. Their lives are becoming. The living standard is dropping. Okay, Prices are going up. Their salaries are staying low. Sometimes the salaries get cut. So general mood in Russia, economic mood, is life is getting more difficult and there is not much hope, despite what the propaganda is telling Russian people. It's been telling for three and a half years, and now they just simply don't believe anymore. Because it's really hard to believe when you hear something from TV and you go to a store and you see a different picture. Okay, so that's economic mood, political mood. The more people support the war now and support Putin, more than done before, the support has grown, and Russians now realize. Well, think, not realize, but think that they are at war with Ukraine. Before, it was more like that's just some kind of a misunderstanding. We're not fighting with Ukraine. We're fighting with the collective west led by the usa, and they're just using Ukraine as proxy. And Ukrainians, poor guys, they're being used. You know, now that mood is vanishing, that. That point of view is vanishing. Now it's more like, okay, it's Ukraine. We're fighting Ukraine. They're hitting our facilities, oil refineries, railroads, apartment blocks with the drones every day. Now. They took part of province, and then we fought hard to drive them back. So it's the Ukrainians. There's no question about that. And the support is growing. Russians want. They're tired. Fatigue is also growing. Of course they are tired of the war, but they want the war to stop on their terms. They want to be victorious. They. They don't want to give up territories and so forth. That's the mood that I'm feeling in.

[Mike Baker]

Russia right now, Konstantin. I want to pick up from this point, and I want to talk about. In the next segment, I want to talk about the success of Ukrainian efforts to strike inside Russia and what that may mean for the population in terms of their attitude towards this war. But, Constantine, some more love, if you could stay right where you are. Don't go anywhere. We have to take a quick break, and then we'll be back with more on the PDB situation Report. So you know what I'm about to say. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let's be honest. Generally, most of us, on occasion or maybe often are tired or stressed or dealing with some kind of pain, maybe from a tough workout or a run. And what do we do? Well, I'll tell you, we typically, we power through it because we honestly, the last thing we want is yet another prescription taking up space in the medicine cabinet. That's why I'm so glad I found CB Distillery. But their CBD products are helping so many people, myself included, sleep better, feel more relaxed and ease everyday pain. And the best part, well, the best part is it's all made with premium quality natural ingredients. They've got a full range of solutions for stress, for sleep, for pain after exercise, and even CBD for pets. So Fido and Snowball can get in on the action. They their soothing relief balm as an example is a huge customer favorite and so are their sleep products. Look, I've used the relief balm after workouts. It is a game changer. It works great. So if you're tired of being tired and stressed or you just want to feel better, check out CBD from CB Distillery. And right now you can save 25%. I said 25% off your entire purchase. Visit CB Distillery and use promo code PDB. That's CBDistillery.com promo code PDB CBDistillery.com specific product availability depends on individual state regulations. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take a minute of your.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Konstantin Samoilov. You can check him out and you should, and I insist that you do on YouTube at Inside Russia. That's YouTube at Inside Russia. Check out Constantine's work. Hey, thanks very much for sticking around here on the Situation report. I, I want to pick up from where we were. Talk to me if you could about the, the impact or the success, if you want to call it that, of Ukrainian efforts to take the war into Russia to attack in particular the energy infrastructure. Over the past, say even the past.

[Konstantin Samoilov]

Month or so the Ukrainians have been successful, that's for sure. They are taking a different approach to attacks. And I started noticing late spring, couple particular areas they've targeted and they've targeted successfully. One is the airports. They really wrecked havoc in over summer months in Russian airports in Moscow and St. Petersburg, in other cities they disrupted usual normal life of Russian people. A lot of people see a lot of people in Russia still living in bubbles, informational bubbles. They have built those bubbles to feel safe, to feel normal because knowing that you are at war with another country is very painful. It's very scary. I know, I know. I started feeling it on the very first day because I didn't build a bubble for myself. I realized what my country started doing to Ukraine. But a lot of people don't want to be bothered, to be stressed, to be heard. So they just pretend that life is normal, business as usual. And if someone tries to tell them the news, ask them, get them to talk about what's going on, they shut them down. Like I tried so many times to reach out Russian people and they talk with me about anything but the war. Okay? As soon as I start telling them, please stop, we don't want to hear about that, we're going to go crazy. That's too much, that's too painful. So we don't talk about that. We don't watch the news. So a lot of Russians are still living like that. And Ukrainian strikes in the summer, they bursted those, many of those informational bubbles Personal bubbles. Because Russian people felt how it is to be living under constant threat of attacks when the attacks disrupt your normal routine and so forth. They were attacks on drone fly. Drones fly near airports, disrupting airports, flights, airports operations. And also on a few occasions, they disrupted railroad transportation. They hit railroad tracks in the south of Russia. And that also created a chaos because, you know, so many people travel by rail these days. And then of course, the latest and the most effective strategies hitting oil refineries in Russia. I'm just going to give you one number. As of August 26, Russia lost 17% of oil refining capacity. So it's producing 17% less of gasoline and diesel now. This is insane. The number is. Imagine a country living normal life and you just take 17% of its oil and diesel. And what happens? Well, shortages happen. The price is skyrocketing. That's what happens. For the first time in 35 years since the collapse of the USSR. Well, we saw the shortages of gasoline at the gas stations. Some gas stations do not sell gas to people, only to commercial trucks, commercial vehicles, to businesses. And some provinces introduced ratios, rationings. In the USSR we called it rationings. And a person would get a special paper like a check. And then the gas was only sold by checks. This is 2025, Mike. That's unbelievable. In Russia they brought the checks back alone. They are back.

[Mike Baker]

I mean, we've been hearing reports of shortages of long gas lines, increased prices in the east. Right. Of the country. It sounds as if they're trying in a way to insulate Moscow and sort of the main urban centers from these problems. Right. And kind of like what they did with conscription kind of forced that out into the farther regions and provinces.

[Konstantin Samoilov]

Moscow is, is not Russia. Moscow is a country within itself. Okay. And no matter what happens in Russia, Moscow is going to be better off. St. Petersburg, pretty much the same the rest of Russia, it gets it tough. I don't think that they tried to isolate Moscow so much. I think it's just the logistics of oil refineries that were hit. Is that allowed for certain provinces to go without gas or with smaller amounts of gasoline and diesel fuel? Not just in the east, the problems in the west, in Crimea, they actually introduced the Taloni Talons. I don't know what's the right word, those tickets, ticket system. Okay. In Rostov province, that's where I'm from. From originally, from long lines. My friends sent me pictures. I saw that with my own eyes. Well, through videos and through pictures. So it's not just in the east of Russia, it's in the west as well. And the problem was growing. Another interesting thing to know is that when initially the shortages started, information blew up all over Internet. You know, it was even in social, in state media, a little bit here and there, and definitely in telegram channels. They've been trying to hide it. It's much more difficult to find information about the shortages right now.

[Mike Baker]

If you're talking about 17%, right. Imagine that 17% hit to the energy sector, and then you put on top of that, the secondary sanctions that the White House leveled against India, right, which is the number two foreign consumer of. Of Russian energy. What do you think about what appears to be a reluctance to put those same sanctions on China, which is the number one consumer of Russian energy, under the theory that, you know, the only way, perhaps this is just one theory, but to get Putin to actually meaningful negotiation is to make him feel pain. And the way to do that is through the economy. Does it surprise you that the White House hasn't been more aggressive? They've threatened, you know, extreme sanctions. They've threatened secondary sanctions on China, but they've been doing that for some time. Does it surprise you that that's been the position of the White House?

[Konstantin Samoilov]

Absolutely does. Well, I'm surprised by immunity of China from the sanctions, let's put it this way. But I am surprised also by the bigger picture of all the threats that we've heard starting March. When Donald Trump first started realizing that Vladimir Putin is not so eager to stop the war, and he started threatening Russia with different sanctions. We don't know what the sanctions are. Threats. He started sending Russia threats. But as far as I understand, none of those threats have materialized. I'll see what I can do in two weeks. It's going to take me one week. If one week. If in two weeks Vladimir Putin doesn't stop the war, then he's going to regret about that and all of that. I've heard it a dozen times now, and that's shocking because America six months ago had an upper hand on Russia. The sanctions started working and Russian economy started collapsing. It ran out of money. And that's what America needed to do. It needed to play tough on Russia to force Vladimir Putin to start seeking negotiations, seeking peace. Instead, they stopped the sanctions, whatever sanctions were working, they stopped enforcing them, and they started appeasing Vladimir Putin. So I'm amazed by that.

[Mike Baker]

With the, with the China situation, right. With the idea that they haven't put secondary sanctions on China, you have to almost assume that that's because they're in these ongoing difficult trade negotiations with China. So they're probably looking at it from a, from a US Centric position at the White House saying, okay, well, yes, it would be effective if we slapped secondary sanctions on China as the number one consumer. And basically, you know, the primary reason why Putin's war machine continues to take along is from support from China. But I think the trade negotiations that, that they're engaged in, keeping them from, from taking that step.

[Konstantin Samoilov]

Leave China alone. I understand that the United States has very specific relationship with China. Okay? Interdependent relationship. Forget about China. Don't touch China. The USA can do so much even leaving China alone.

[Mike Baker]

Okay.

[Konstantin Samoilov]

Target India Indian oil refineries. Target Greek ship owners who have been helping Russia to ship oil. There are so much the USA can do even without China that just would completely crush Russian economy and would force Putin to, well, to change what he's doing in some way at least to start negotiation, like real peace negotiation process. So I'm not paying much attention about China. There's so many other ways pressure can be applied.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, no, I, I agree with you 100. I think also, you know, the top line here is if, if Putin doesn't feel more pain, if he, if there's not more pressure, he doesn't see an upside to sitting down and having any sort of meaningful discussion. He's been very clear, it seems, about his demands. And now the west is talking about this coalition of the willing and, you know, Britain and France jumping in, saying, we'll put, we'll put troops on the ground in Ukraine as part of this security guarantee. Well, you know, it doesn't matter if Putin refuses that as a, as an option, you know, to create a peace deal. If he doesn't, if he's not going to sit down and have a peace deal, the west can talk about a coalition of the willing all they want. It doesn't mean anything. So I think, you know, they're perhaps slow to the game in exerting more pressure on him from an economic perspective. So I agree with what you're saying there, Constantine. Listen, I wish we had more time and I do hope that, you know, when we call you, you'll, you'll pick up the phone and come on back because I don't think this is going to end anytime soon, unfortunately.

[Konstantin Samoilov]

I think so, too.

[Mike Baker]

Well, Constantine, thank you very much. Constantine Samoil again, you should check him out on YouTube, Inside Russia. Get there, read his work. Thank you very much for joining us again on the Situation Report. Man, I Hope to see you again soon.

[Konstantin Samoilov]

Thank you for having me. Thank you.

[Mike Baker]

All right. Complex. That's an understatement, isn't it? Well, coming up next, China's military parade this week wasn't just about pageantry, but, oh, there was some pageantry. Beijing used the moment to showcase some of its most advanced weaponry, sending a pointed message to the world. We'll break it all down with Brandon Weickert. He's a senior national security editor at the National Interest. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you've heard me talk about the great company Jacked Up Fitness, right? And they're amazing. All in one home gym. For home fitness, it's a game changer. Now here's something new. Don and his terrific team over at Jacked Up Fitness. Well, they know that many people are short on time and also short on money, but still want to get fit. So now listen to this. You can start your fitness journey for under $60 and in just six minutes each day. Think about that. Introducing, and here's a blast from the past, the all new Shake Weight by Jacked up fitness. Remember that 15 years ago, the original Shake Weight shook the world. And now the fitness legend returns. It's bigger, better and built to perform. And why now? Well, I am glad you asked because science has finally caught up with the importance of explosive power and fast twitch muscle training. And that's something that the Shake Weight delivers in a compact, powerful way for beginners, for heavy lifters, and for serious athletes alike. Look. The spring loaded weights on each end send shock waves of energy throughout your whole upper body, forcing your muscles to to contract up to 240 times per minute. Beginners can tone and tighten their arms, shoulders and chest. Lifters can prime their upper bodies in between sets and get that final burn. While athletes can sharpen reaction times and build explosive power. For that competitive edge. The Shake Weight is no joke. It's serious training made simple. So if you're looking for a fun way to jump start or supercharge your fitness routine, get the all new Shake Weight by Jacked Up Fitness. Just go to jackedupshakeway.com Again, that's jackedupshakeweight.com.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. China's big military parade in Beijing this week wasn't just for show, although it was quite the show. It was a warning shot. Rolling through the streets were hypersonic missiles designed to sink US Ships, long range air defenses and swarms of drones built for the next fight. They even put their electronic warfare gear on display, systems that can blind radars, jam GPS and leave modern armies in the dark. The message was pretty clear. Beijing wants the world and especially Washington to know and to see just how sharp its teeth have gotten to help us cut through what's real and what's theater. We're joined by Brandon Weickert, senior national Security Editor at the National Interest and host of the national security hour on iHeartRadio every Wednesday night at 8pm Eastern. Brandon, thanks very much for joining us here on the Situation report.

[Brandon Weickert]

Well, thanks for having me. As always, it's good to be here.

[Mike Baker]

Let's start from the top. Did you see anything during the course of this big fancy military parade in Beijing that surprised you?

[Brandon Weickert]

I think one of the key takeaways is the fact that the Chinese are clearly not, at least they're not displaying the same level of Russian military based technology that they used to at these types of parades. That, for me is a major takeaway. It indicates that Xi Jinping's indigenization program over the last decade is actually taking effect. And it indicates to me that the Chinese are basically, you know, hardening themselves at the industrial level to not have to be as reliant on foreign components for their weapons. And it also means they will probably be much more competitive on the global arms market if they create their own ecosystem of defense industrial products, which they clearly have done.

[Mike Baker]

Talk to me about the still, I mean, I understand what you're saying. They've moved away from, you know, over reliance on, say, Russian technology or supplies. But, but even still, what is that relationship like? How much of a, of a back and forth is there? How much of a, of a weapons technology transfer exists between the two countries. You know, how important is the Russian military industrial complex to China right now?

[Brandon Weickert]

Well, it's still important in the sense that the Chinese would rather be reliant on Russia than say the United States or the Europeans for certain kinds of military technology. But again, I think the key takeaway here is the Chinese are starting to build their own stuff from scratch, which indicates they've switched away from being mere imitators to being innovators, which tends to be how these things go. You know, for, for a very long time. We used to criticize, rightly the Chinese as being, oh, they're just copycats, they're just imitators. But I think what we're seeing here is a real growth in their own innovative capability. And even when they're not necessarily being innovative, their capability to mass produce systems, that still remains a real key benefit for the Chinese military. They can go to scale with many technologies that we would love to go to scale with. But our defense industrial base here in the United States cannot do that anymore. And so there are certain capabilities that the Chinese have that make them very unique and very well poised to be very competitive with the United States in the weapons department.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah. Why can't we do that here in the US?

[Brandon Weickert]

Well, because we sent away most of our mass production manufacturing capabilities to places like China 40 years ago. Thank you Wall street and Jimmy Carter. And people don't remember, but Jimmy Carter actually presided. It wasn't Nixon, it was Carter that presided over the great beginning of the deindustrialization craze. And they convinced themselves back then that this was going to lead to the knowledge based economy and that we would always stay ahead because of that. And what we're finding actually is China's competing with us not just for those manufacturing jobs, but they're competing with us quite well for those white collar knowledge based jobs. And so the Chinese have really been able to keep a pace with us largely because of the boost we gave them with the industrialization. And that's playing now out in the arms development industry.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, it's interesting what you were talking about earlier about sort of innovators because you're right, I think for some time now the narrative has been that they've spent so many years aggressively essentially stealing and reverse engineering that they kind of skipped over a generation or two of engineers. Right. They were very good at sort of the copycat that again back ending and reverse engineering this technology. But it's, it's worrisome if what you're saying is that that's no longer the case.

[Brandon Weickert]

I believe that's becoming the case. And I think that the Pentagon and our friends at CIA and the intelligence community are still clinging on to this notion that China's merely imitator. I think that's not true anymore. I think that this parade demonstrates a real capability for indigenous innovation and when you marry that to their mass production capability, that's a real problem for us. Even if their technology isn't as advanced as ours, they can just beat us with quantity, whereas we're still dealing with a handful of systems. They have the ability to mass produce these things.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, well, you would have to assume that they. At some point, right? I mean, whether it's the Chinese or anyone else, any, anybody who's in that boat, anybody who says, look, we're going to get to a certain point on the food chain by, by avoiding the heavy cost of research and development and, and all that. We're just going to hoover it up from other people and then let our engineers figure it out. Right. And then recreate it. At some point you are going to level that playing field and you will then get to the point where you. Now, now you're getting ahead of the game. Now, you don't need to necessarily steal because you've taken so much already.

[Brandon Weickert]

That's right.

[Mike Baker]

What, what at, at this, at this parade, which makes it sound really festive. Right. I mean, it's a, you know, but there was, there were no. There would. I didn't see a single Shriner display. You know, there's little mini cars that they drive and you know, synchronized. There was none of that. As parade school kids would have been disappointed. But so too what you saw, what was displayed there. Were there, was there any hardware that gave you pause for thought that you said, oh, didn't know that they had that.

[Brandon Weickert]

Well, I'm trying to remember now if there was anything I didn't know they didn't have. I think it was really the quantity and the at least an appearance complexity of three systems. In particular the directed energy weapons are very worrisome to me. And they have those clearly in abundance. At least that's what they displayed. The hypersonic weapon that they displayed is very impressive looking. And the, the drone Systems, particularly the UUVs, the underwater unmanned vehicles as well as the helicopter drones. Those are three systems, Mike, that really, really give me pause. And partly because we don't have particularly the DWs, the directed energy weapon as well as the hypersonic weapons, we don't have those. We're trying to get them we've been trying to get them hasn't really worked out. And the fact of the matter is the Chinese not only have these systems in abundance where we don't, but we don't even have any defense against these systems. And that should give every American pause.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah. For the benefit of our viewers, can you give us an overview? When you say directed energy weapons, what are we talking about?

[Brandon Weickert]

Well, basically it would be laser weapons with, without it looking like something from Star Trek. They basically look like two giant binoculars. And what they do is they will fire up energy, em energy. Add an incoming weapon and they can literally fry an incoming missile in theory or definitely an incoming drone. They can fry the electronics by directing very concentrated energy. A laser that's not necessarily one that you can see like you would in Star Trek in a, you know, a battle, but that's what it's doing. It's, it's directing a directed energy.

[Konstantin Samoilov]

Beam.

[Brandon Weickert]

At a target, in this case a drone or an incoming missile, and, and frying the onboard circuitry so it doesn't operate or hit the target it's intended to.

[Mike Baker]

If you could stay where you are just for a second because we're going to need to take a quick break and then we'll be back with more from Brandon Weikert here on the Situation report. Stick around.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. We're joined again by Brandon Weikart, senior National Security editor at that national interest. Brandon, thanks very much for sticking around. We've been talking about China's military parade ostensibly to celebrate the you know, the defeat of Japan in World War II. But there was more to it than that. Right? They were, it wasn't so much a gathering to say, hey, look at that, we won all those years ago. This was more about a forward looking message to the west, do you think?

[Brandon Weickert]

Absolutely. And this was, if you, if you remember, this was paired with the Tianjin meeting of all the Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaders in which really a disturbing evolution in relations between India and China appeared to be underway. India, of course, was a rival of China. But now for a variety of reasons related to U.S. foreign policy and trade policy, India seems to be, at least for now, pivoting into a friendlier position with China and Russia, which is a huge problem for us. This was clearly a message. I keep referring to this as the, the ideology of resistance. So basically, China is the nominal leader of this budding alliance. And it's a very loose alliance. It's not like NATO where there's this mutual defense pact. It's very loose. It's a typical Eurasian war party where it's the allies of convenience, but they're aligned on one single issue. They want to resist what they are saying or perceive to be American and Western imperialism in the global South. And so that, that ideology of resistance is what's uniting these countries, notably Russia, India and China, against the United States. And you throw in Turkey to some degree, you throw in Iran, you throw in North Korea and some others, and you're seeing a really dangerous evolution. And China is at the center of that. And this parade was just one other data point that Xi Jinping was putting out to the world for everyone to see that the age of American dominance or unipolarity certainly is over. And at the very least, the dawn of the tripolar world order trending toward multipolarity is here.

[Mike Baker]

It was interesting because obviously Putin's presence and Kim Jong Un's presence from North Korea kind of, you know, ate up all the oxygen. That's what most people focus on. Look, look at this is Xi and Putin and Kim sitting next to each other, standing next to the parade. But when you looked at the other attendees, you're right. I mean, it was kind of a interesting gaggle of, of individuals, leaders, sort of a. It was a strange mix, right? Kind of an evil league of evil. You had Nicaragua in there. You had, oddly enough, you had a couple of former ministers from New Zealand and Australia in attendance. It was just a strange mix once you started looking at the group photos and realizing who all was there.

[Brandon Weickert]

Yeah, well, the New Zealand and Australian connections do not surprise me. Australia, New Zealand, and I would throw Canada as well in terms of being five eyes partners are not as reliable as they once were because at the very least the left wing of those three countries have been mostly co opted by the Chinese through covert means. And in my opinion, Australia and New Zealand in this case have a large and growing pro engagement group in their respective countries with China. And they're not in power right now necessarily, but they are in the wings waiting to take back power politically. And so that's what I think that was about.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I think you're onto something there. The issue with, with China and Russia. Right. When you talked about sort of a marriage of convenience concept. Right. And, and I agree in the sense that I always look at China as being sort of the, the world's foremost practitioner of, of, of pragmatism. Right. And, but that's not a compliment. What I mean by that is everything they do in a very mercenary fashion is based on what's in their own best interests. Right. They would, there's never a moment where they think what's best for the community of nations. It doesn't, it doesn't exist there. So I mean, I'm talking about the regime, I'm not talking about the people, you know, great culture, great history, all those things. But so I want to look at the relationship between China and Russia. Do you think there's anything to the, the concept that in part China's in this business of, of supporting Russia because at a relatively low cost and a benefit to them, obviously in discounted energy purchases, they get to stand by and watch Russia kind of bleed to death?

[Brandon Weickert]

Well, it's not just Russia bleed to death, it's NATO as well, it's the United States.

[Mike Baker]

But I agree with you, but what I mean is, you know, people talk about this, oh my God, there's this, this romance going on with Russia and China and everybody's worried that they're joined at the hip and that's. What does this mean for the world? I mean, you're right, of course, anything that antagonizes the west, obviously the Chinese regime is, is all about. But I'm talking about, is there something underlying this, this relationship between China and Russia that, you know, perhaps from the Chinese perspective, you know, isn't in Russia's best interest?

[Brandon Weickert]

Oh, I, I think, absolutely. I think ultimately China, it's a tripolar system we're in now. And in such a system, one party is going to constantly try to get the other two major powers to duke it out to weaken those two competitors so that that other party can basically have a free hand in the part of the world it covets, in this case, the Indo Pacific. And I think this is working out brilliantly. It weakens Russia, and also it's forcing Russia under Putin to be more desperate and to seek greater ties with China. Remain. Remember, the Russian Far east, the Pacific side of Russia has a lot of untapped mineral wealth. It also is sparsely populated. Putin is aware of this as well, by the way. But ultimately. And the Chinese covet that part of Russia. But ultimately, as long as America is fighting Russia in Ukraine, the Russians will constantly subordinate their fear of China to the greater fear of NATO and America. This is one reason, and this doesn't make me very popular, this is one reason I've been saying we've got to end the Ukraine war, because I guarantee you, if we end the Ukraine war and get a negotiated settlement, suddenly the bromance between Xi and Putin becomes a lot less appealing to the two sides.

[Mike Baker]

That, I mean, that does. That does make sense. I'm just, I'm always fascinated in looking at this because we've seen this over decades. Right. Decades. I'm, unfortunately, are fortunately old enough to, you know, to look a fair ways back into history, modern times. And, and the relationship between Russia has always been. Yeah, you're telling me. It's not the years, it's the mileage, Brandon, but it's the. It's this. This idea that it's always been this marriage of convenience. And we're seeing it again now. Right. But I tend to actually worry more about this relationship with Russia and North Korea, particularly in terms of the weapons technology transfer. Talk to me.

[Brandon Weickert]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Baker]

Where that relationship is and what you saw from this, this recent gathering in Beijing between those two countries.

[Brandon Weickert]

Well, you're right to be worried about the North Korea thing, because the North Koreans have really made out like bandits because of this relationship with Russia. Basically, Russia went to Pyongyang about a year and a half ago on their knees in many respects, because they needed the industrial capacity of the North Koreans. They needed the extra manpower to use as a meat grinder, cannon fodder. And then the North Koreans said, fine, we'll do that, but you got to open up your vaults, basically, and give us advanced systems, weapon systems that we can use. And you're seeing now North Korea has hypersonic weapons. We don't have hypersonic weapons. The South Koreans don't have them, but the North Koreans now do. And that's particularly because of their relationship with Russia. They're getting advanced submarine technology. I have heard through the grapevine that Russia was so desperate about a year ago, they gave the North Koreans advanced submarine propulsion technology, which is something that the Russians are experts in this. They're a real problem for the US Navy is Russian propulsion technology. And ultimately they're giving it to the North Koreans because they need what North Korea is giving them to help them fight and win the Ukraine war. So this is a big problem. And by the way, there will be no reliable peace deal between the US And North Korea so long as the Ukraine war is going on, because North Korea is just making out like bandits right now. So they. They want that war to continue. And so until that war is over, that's another issue we're going to have unresolved is the issue with North Korea.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I think, I think you're exactly right. And that's why we're not seeing Kim say anything about President Trump's latest efforts to say, hey, we could get down, get together, and I'm willing to meet with Kim. And it's been absolute silence from their side in North Korea. Last question, Brandon. Who's winning the hypersonic weapons race in.

[Brandon Weickert]

Terms of practical applications? The Russians are, hands down. China's right behind them. We've got a couple of systems in the pipeline that look promising, notably the. I think it's the LARASM cruise missile that's being developed for the B21 and the B2. But ultimately, Russia has hypersonic working, hypersonic weapons in abundance. The Chinese are right behind them. We are still in the development stage, so that is not a good place to be because we don't have any active defenses against hypersonic weapons. So this is a problem.

[Mike Baker]

Yeah, I couldn't agree with you more. And that we need to be able to talk about that the next time. I really would expect to spend almost the entire time. The next time you're willing to come on board the Situation Report, we should spend that whole time talking about hypersonics. People need to understand just how important.

[Brandon Weickert]

You say the word and I'll be here again.

[Mike Baker]

All right, then. All right, listen, Brandon Weicker, senior National Security Editor at the National Interest. You know, we love you here at the Situation Report. That's all the time we have for this week's PDB Situation Report. He's a great guy. Definitely check out the work that he does. It's. It's very worth your time if you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes, and I hope you do, right? I mean, send them along. Reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com we talked about this before and you know what I'm going to say here, right? Every week, every week at the PDB headquarters, which of course is located under a dormant volcano somewhere that in an undisclosed location because it's a secret compound. Carl the mailman who somehow knows the secret, drops off another sack of mail filled to the brim with your postcards and your emails and your telegrams and your faxes. Don't forget the faxes. And every month, our amazing team, including some of our above average interns, select the best of them and we put all that into a monthly ask me anything episode. So my point being, keep those cards and letters coming. Finally, to listen to the podcast of the show AD free. Become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com It could not be any easier. I'm Mike Baker. Until next time. Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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