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- [00:01]
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It's Sunday, the 1st of March. Look at that, a brand new month. Welcome to this Sunday evening special edition of the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. Operation Epic Fury, as it's being called in the US Or Operation Roaring lion, as it's called in Israel, has now entered its second day. US And Israeli strikes are continuing across Iran, targeting ballistic missile arrays, air defense systems, and what remains of the regime's senior leadership structure. Now I want to start by taking a look at a statement from Iranian leadership that hasn't gotten as much attention as I believe it should because it may be providing some unintentional insight into the current state of Iran's military. First, a little background. For the first time in this conflict, Iranian drones struck Oman. Now that's a country that had largely been spared, likely because of its long standing role as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran. So targeting facilities in Oman by the Iranian regime, well, that's interesting enough, but what really stands out is how the regime explained those strikes. When asked about it, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragi had this to say. Quote, what happened in Oman was not our choice. We have already told our armed forces to be careful about the targets they choose. Our military units are now in fact, independent and somewhat isolated, and they are acting based on general instructions given to them in advance, end quote. Now, if accurate, that means the Iranian military is now executing pre authorized guidance rather than taking instruction from real time commands. Iraqi is effectively admitting that centralized command and control has collapsed or mostly collapsed, and the military is essentially operating on autopilot. And when units begin acting on standing orders without real time direction and guidance from superiors, well, the risk of miscalculation can rise dramatically. According to reports, the US carried out more than 900 strikes in the first 12 hours of this conflict, while Israel reportedly carried out 1200 strikes in the first 24 hours. For some context, that's more than were carried out in the entire 12 day war just past year. Of course, the other big news at this hour, Iranian state media has now acknowledged that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed. The 86 year old cleric, who has ruled the Islamic Republic for more than three decades was reportedly killed early Saturday morning when his compound and offices in downtown Tehran were reduced to rubble in a targeted strike. Iranian sources speaking to Reuters say at least seven missiles were launched against the fortified compound. Khamenei had ruled since 1989, succeeding Ayatollah Khomeini over more than 30 years. He consolidated near absolute authority over Iran's military, judiciary, intelligence services and state media. He shaped Tehran's confrontational foreign policy on oversaw its proxy network across the Middle east and maintained tight control over the regime's religious and political institutions. For an entire generation of Iranians. Well, he was the regime. President Trump commented on Khamenei's death, saying this is not only justice for the people of Iran, but for all great Americans and those people from many countries throughout the world that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty thugs. The President added that heavy and pinpoint bombing will continue uninterrupted throughout the week until American objectives are achieved. Khamenei was not the only senior figure reportedly eliminated. Israeli officials are claiming that more than 40 top security and regime officials were killed in the initial wave of strikes. The Israeli military has published a list of those it believes it has taken out. That list includes Iran's Defense Minister, the head of the Iranian Security Council, the command. The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would be Mohammed Pakbor and dozens of other senior leaders across Iran's intelligence, military and political apparatus. Arguably, the most significant name on that list is Pakbar. He'd been commander of the IRGC since last year when his predecessor was killed in a targeted attack by the Israelis. In that role, he commanded Iran's main military force, oversaw activation of strategic missile arrays against Israel, and coordinated with Iranian proxies across the region. He also allegedly led the violent suppression of Iranian protesters over the past month that resulted in thousands of citizens killed by the regime and tens of thousands more detained. Despite the apparent removal of so many regime senior leaders, there's no guarantee that the government will collapse. As we've been reporting here on the pdb, Iranian officials have long anticipated what they refer to as the assassination scenario. The regime has contingency plans in place. Just last week, we noted that Khamenei had quietly shifted significant authority to Ali Larajani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. As of now, there are no indications that Larajani was killed in the initial strikes. In other words, while the top layer of leadership may have been removed, Tehran has likely been preparing for rapid succession. That means this may not create the immediate power vacuum that summoned Jerusalem or Washington or or frankly, much of the Iranian population might be hoping for. Meanwhile, the regional fallout continues to expand.
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Hey PDB listeners, Mike Baker here with a quick recommendation for your podcast playlist. Look, if you like deep, insightful conversations with world class thinkers and who doesn't come on, check out the Jordan Harbinger Show. It's available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen. Jordan sits down with people who've been in the room at the highest levels, from national security leaders to thinkers reshaping how we understand the world. You'll hear ideas and stories that go way beyond the usual sound bites. Two episodes I'd recommend an interview with our friend Ryan Macbeth on Venezuela's collapse. That's a clear look at how a once wealthy oil state unraveled and what that means, of course, for regional stability. And also his conversation with Douglas Murray where they explore the pressures facing Western democracies and and what those trends mean for long term stability. Download the Jordan Harbinger Show. That's H A R B I n G E R just like it sounds on Apple podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your shows. Or just go to jordanharbinger.com start to dive right in. It's one of those podcasts that makes you smarter, so give it a go.
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Iran has launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf in the broader Middle East. As we reported earlier, Iranian drones and missiles have targeted nations hosting US Bases, including the uae, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Bahrain. Explosions were also heard in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. In total, Iran has launched retaliatory attacks against targets in 11 different nations. Several airports across the region have been targeted, bringing air traffic to a halt in multiple Gulf states. Among the high profile sites reportedly damaged by Iranian drones and missiles, the Burj Al Arab and Palm hotels in Dubai, two of the most luxurious hotels in the world. Despite taking significant losses, the Islamic Republic is projecting defiance. Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard have declared that what they call the most ferocious offensive operation in the Islamic Republic's history has yet to begin. Unfortunately, we also have our first confirmed US Fatalities of this conflict. In a statement posted to social Media this morning, U.S. central Command announced that three U.S. service members were killed in action and five others were seriously wounded. Several additional personnel reportedly sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions. CENTCOM did not provide further details, including whether the casualties occurred in a single incident or across multiple incidents. There are also confirmed casualties in Israel. In Israel, at least six people have been killed and more than 100 injured, some critically. And we are still waiting on verified casualty numbers from the Gulf states. All right, now I want to turn briefly to the US Political front. The War Powers Resolution is back in the spotlight. There are growing calls in Congress on both sides of the aisle for a vote that could potentially rein in President Trump's authority as this conflict unfolds. That vote, if it happens, would likely be very close. Republicans hold only slim majorities in both the House and the Senate. At the same time, several Democrats in both chambers have already indicated that they would support extending the president's authority, at least in the short term. No exact date has been set, but leadership sources suggest a vote could come as early as next week. If that happens, it could mark the first major domestic political showdown directly tied to this widening conflict. So to recap, we are two days into Operation Epic Fury, or Roaring lion, and the Middle east has entered a new phase. Iran's supreme leader is dead. Dozens of senior officials are reportedly gone. Retaliatory strikes from the Iranian regime have targeted U.S. facilities in 11 nations. And the world is watching to see whether this is the moment that the regime falls or if it stabilizes and coalesces around new leadership in Tehran. That question, of course, ultimately rests with the people of Iran. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back tomorrow with the regular morning edition of the president's Daily Brief. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.