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PDB Special Report | January 3, 2025: The Fall of Maduro: Inside the U.S. Operation That Toppled Venezuela’s Dictator
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It's Saturday, the 3rd of January. Welcome to this special edition of the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And what a stage it is. Well, the world woke up to some genuinely stunning news this morning as President Trump announced that Nicolas Maduro, the longtime strongman, ruler, of course, of Venezuela, has been captured along with his wife, following US Military strikes on key Venezuelan military facilities in and around Caracas. This marks one of the most extraordinary moments in modern US Foreign policy in recent memory, the removal of a sitting head of state through direct American military action. It harkens back to the 1989 removal of Daniel Noriega from Panama. But while the significance of the actions in Venezuela are clear, many critical questions remain unanswered, at least for now. Chief among them, what comes next? I'll give you my thoughts on what this all means going forward, but first, here's what we know about the operation, at least so far. Overnight, US Forces carried out what officials are now calling an apprehension mission in Venezuela. According to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kane, the operation had been in development for months and relied on a close integration of intelligence collection and military planning. US Intelligence services, Kaine said, had been tracking Maduro closely throughout that period, now falling in the category of for what it's worth. From my perspective, this would undoubtedly have included recruited assets inside the Venezuelan government and military. The operation, known as Absolute Resolve, began early Saturday morning with a large scale bombing campaign. Explosions were reported across Caracas and surrounding areas where with aircraft operating at low altitude, multiple facilities tied to Venezuela's military and internal security services were hit. Targets included communications hubs, command and control nodes and air defense systems. Power was reportedly knocked out across much of the city during the opening phase. General Kane said approximately 150 aircraft were involved in the operation, including bombers and surveillance platforms, fighter jets, helicopters and remotely piloted drones. Those aircraft launched from roughly 20 different air bases across the hemisphere. One aircraft was reportedly struck during the operation but remained flyable and returned safely to base. Then at approximately 1:00am Eastern Time, U.S. special Forces descended into downtown Caracas. They assaulted what was described as a heavily fortified location where President Maduro and his wife Celia Flores were believed to be sheltering. According to U.S. officials, both were captured without significant resistance. The pair were then transported to the USS Iwo Jima, a US Maybe amphibious assault ship, essentially a floating helicopter base currently operating in the Caribbean. General Kane said the entire operation from the opening strikes to extraction lasted roughly 2 hours and 20 minutes. Maduro and his wife are now reportedly en route to New York. U.S. attorney General Pam Bondi announced that Maduro has been indicted on federal charges. The indictment accuses him, along with multiple associates of terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine into the US Large scale drug trafficking, corruption of public institutions to protect narcotics shipments and partnerships with foreign drug trafficking organizations. It's being reported that Maduro could make his first appearance in New York federal court as soon as Monday. As you can imagine, what remains of the regime isn't too happy with this morning's developments, at least so they claim. Senior Venezuelan officials have denounced the US Action as an act of aggression and declared a national emergency. Of course, Maduro has long been the target of U. S pressure. He's been under US Indictment for years on drug trafficking related charges. Washington has accused his regime of operating as a narco state, facilitating transnational criminal networks, repressing political opposition and presiding over the collapse of Venezuela's economy. As we've been tracking here in recent months, that pressure has steadily intensified. The US Acknowledged targeted strikes on drug trafficking infrastructure. Naval activity in the region increased and rhetoric from Washington hardened. This operation appears to be the culmination, of course of a campaign designed not merely to weaken the Maduro regime but to remove it altogether. International reaction has been mixed thus far and telling. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he was, quote, deeply alarmed, warning that the operation could set a dangerous precedent and urging respect for international law. Mexican President Claudius Shine issued a similar statement condemning the action as a violation of the UN Charter. Perhaps my favorite of all international reaction thus far has been from Russia. Russia's Foreign Ministry weighed in posting on X with no sense of irony that the US had committed what it called, quote, an act of armed aggression against Venezuela, adding that it raised deep concern and warranted condemnation. Oh well, maybe the Russian Foreign Ministry, busy with its four year invasion of Ukraine should sit this one out. But there has been support within the international community as well. Argentine President Javier Milei welcomed the news by sharing a previous video in which he denounced Maduro's government as a, quote, narco terrorist regime and a regional threat. MILE has repeatedly urged Latin American leaders to back U.S. pressure against Caracas. He closed his post with a familiar refrain, quote, long live freedom, damn it, end quote. The damn it is a nice touch, which brings us to the biggest question of all. What happens next? During a press conference this afternoon, President Trump offered some insight, but few specifics. He said, quote, we're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition, end quote. He added that the US Wants liberty and justice for the people of Venezuela and for the country to be, quote, rich, independent, and safe, end quote. What the President did not outline was how the US Would oversee Venezuela or for how long. It remains unclear whether that would involve an extended military presence, the installation of an interim government, or some other transitional arrangement. Trump did say the administration was not afraid of deploying boots on the ground if necessary. He also said US Oil companies would invest, quote, billions of dollars to rehabilitate Venezuela's damaged oil infrastructure. One point of criticism already in Washington has been the lack of advance notice to Congress. Congress hates to be shut out. The administration did not seek prior authorization for the operation. Addressing that concern, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this was not the kind of mission that allowed for advance congressional notification. He described it as, quote, largely a law enforcement operation carried out under extraordinary circumstances. And that brings us to the bigger picture here and some necessary perspective.
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As we've mentioned in the past, once the US Began assembling such a large and visible military posture, there were really only three plausible end states for Venezuela. The first was that Maduro would negotiate his own departure, securing safe passage for himself and his immediate family. That option was quietly explored. Maduro even floated what amounted to a trowel balloon. But by all indications, he misjudged his leverage and asked for terms that were no longer realistic. He hadn't yet grasped just how isolated and exposed he had become. The second possibility was an internal move that figures around him, military leaders or regime insiders would decide that Maduro had become a liability and that they would act to remove him themselves. And the third option was direct U.S. intervention. That clearly is what we've got. Although this intervention may have involved backroom negotiating with one or more of the key power brokers within the Maduro regime, it's important to say this plainly. Removing a regime leader is never clean. It is always messy in one way or another. And just because Maduro is gone, it does not automatically mean Venezuela becomes democratic, stable or free. It's not a one man dictatorship. Maduro was the face of the regime, but not the entirety of it. There are still powerful figures inside Venezuela who matter a great deal. That's a rather statement of the obvious, I suppose. Defense Minister Vladimir Pedrino Lopez, who controls the military, Diaz Cabello, the regime's chief enforcer and political strongman. And the Rodriguez siblings, Delsey Rodriguez and Jorge Rodriguez, who control key levers of state power, specifically oil and propaganda. Add to that a number of senior military officers who've spent years enriching themselves under both Hugo Chavez and Maduro. These people don't simply disappear because Maduro is gone. Unless, as mentioned, there have been negotiations quietly underway and behind Maduro's back. So the next phase could get complicated. Unless again, there were pre negotiated understandings with some of these key actors. Whether such deals exist is not yet clear. But without them, transitions like this tend to be unstable. Another point worth operations like this do not succeed without help from the inside. For the most part. Maduro had grown increasingly paranoid in recent years, and particularly this past year, he tightened his inner security circle and relied heavily on Cuban security personnel for personnel protection, as we've discussed here on the pdp. And yet, in an operation of this precision, the trigger to act usually comes from one of two things. Either exceptionally solid real time intelligence on location and security of the target, or recruited assets inside the system who can facilitate action on the ground. In reality, it's frankly often both. Now, I would be genuinely surprised if this operation did not involve credible intelligence support, likely recruited assets inside Venezuela's security or government apparatus. That's not conjecture. That's how operations like this work. And finally, what happens in Venezuela doesn't typically stay in Venezuela. And particularly in this case, the ripple effects will be significant, especially for Cuba. The Cuban regime relies heavily on Venezuelan oil and economic support. A genuine transition in Caracas, rather than just a reshuffling of some of the key power brokers would place enormous strain on Havana. And beyond the region, the message travels even farther. Tehran will be watching closely. So will the leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The signal sent by this operation, rightly or wrongly, will be studied in capitals far beyond Latin America. So, yes, this is a historic moment, but it's also the beginning of a far more complex phase. The next days and weeks will tell us whether this becomes a managed transition or whether Venezuela enters a period of instability that no one fully controls. We'll continue to track it closely, of course, separate facts from speculation, and keep you informed as this story develops. Mike I'm Mike Baker with this special PDB update. Now, remember to check out also the latest edition of our weekend show, the PDB Situation Report, that's available on our YouTube channel, at President's Daily Brief, and, of course, podcast platforms everywhere. In the meantime, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.