The President's Daily Brief

Special Report | January 3, 2025: The Fall of Maduro – Inside the U.S. Operation That Toppled Venezuela’s Dictator

Host: Mike Baker
Date: January 3, 2026
Podcast: The President's Daily Brief (The First TV)

Episode Overview

In this special edition, former CIA Operations Officer Mike Baker breaks down the extraordinary and historic capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife by U.S. forces. This episode examines the details of "Operation Absolute Resolve," explores the motives and intelligence behind the operation, covers international reactions, unpacks what this means for U.S. foreign policy, and analyzes the crucial and complex question: What comes next for Venezuela?

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Operation Absolute Resolve: The U.S. Capture of Maduro

• Details of the Mission:

  • Overnight, U.S. forces executed a meticulously planned operation to apprehend Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Celia Flores.
  • The mission, called "Absolute Resolve," began with a wide-scale bombing campaign targeting Venezuelan military and security facilities, knocking out communications, command centers, and air defenses.
  • Approximately 150 aircraft were involved, including bombers, fighter jets, helicopters, surveillance planes, and drones, launched from 20 bases across the hemisphere. (04:00)
  • Key Quote:
    • Mike Baker: “Explosions were reported across Caracas and surrounding areas where with aircraft operating at low altitude, multiple facilities tied to Venezuela's military and internal security services were hit.” (03:52)

• Capture of Maduro:

  • Around 1:00am ET, U.S. special forces assaulted a heavily fortified location in downtown Caracas, capturing Maduro and his wife without significant resistance.
  • Extracted to the USS Iwo Jima, an amphibious assault ship in the Caribbean, and now en route to New York to face federal charges.

• Legal Charges:

  • U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi indicted Maduro on terrorism, conspiracy, large-scale drug trafficking, corruption, and partnerships with foreign criminal groups. He is expected in New York federal court as soon as Monday. (05:50)
  • Maduro’s regime labeled the action an “act of aggression” and declared a national emergency.

2. Background: Decades of U.S. Pressure on Maduro

• Maduro has faced longstanding U.S. indictments for narcotics trafficking and was heavily sanctioned.
• U.S. accusations: running a “narco-state,” facilitating transnational crime, and repressing the opposition.
• Leading up to this, pressure had increased through targeted strikes, naval activity, and intensified rhetoric.

3. International Reaction

• Condemnation:
  • UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres voiced alarm, warning that the operation could set a “dangerous precedent.” (06:24)
  • Mexican President Claudius Shine condemned the U.S. action as a violation of the UN Charter.
  • Russia's Foreign Ministry called it an “act of armed aggression” against Venezuela, drawing sarcastic commentary from Baker:
    • Mike Baker: “Maybe the Russian Foreign Ministry, busy with its four year invasion of Ukraine, should sit this one out.” (06:58)
• Support:
  • Argentine President Javier Milei welcomed the news, posting, “long live freedom, damn it.” (07:16)

4. The Path Forward: What Comes Next?

• U.S. Plans in Venezuela:

  • President Trump announced the U.S. “will run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition,” seeking liberty and justice for Venezuelans and pledging “billions” in oil infrastructure investment. (07:25)
  • Details on the transition, length of U.S. oversight, or military presence are unclear; an interim government or other arrangements are possible.
  • President Trump stated the administration “was not afraid of deploying boots on the ground if necessary.” (07:41)

• Congressional Concerns:

  • Criticism erupted over lack of congressional notice.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the operation as “largely a law enforcement operation carried out under extraordinary circumstances” that did not allow for advance notification. (08:00)

5. Analysis: The Realities of Regime Change

• Possible Endgames Considered:

  • Maduro negotiating exile (asked for unrealistic terms, misjudged his position).
  • Internal coup by military/regime insiders.
  • Direct U.S. intervention (resulting scenario).
  • Quote:
    • Mike Baker: “Removing a regime leader is never clean. It is always messy in one way or another. And just because Maduro is gone, it does not automatically mean Venezuela becomes democratic, stable or free.” (08:38)

• Who’s Left in Power:

  • Defense Minister Vladimir Pedrino López, Diaz Cabello (“the regime’s chief enforcer”), and the Rodriguez siblings (oil and propaganda control) remain influential.
  • Senior military officers enriched under Chávez and Maduro are still present; the true makeup of the new power structure will be critical.

• Role of Intelligence and Insiders:

  • Likely involvement of recruited assets inside Venezuelan government/military was key to the operation’s precision.
  • Quote:
    • Mike Baker: “In reality, it’s frankly often both… that’s not conjecture. That’s how operations like this work.” (09:53)

• Regional and Global Impact:

  • Ripple effects for Cuba (which depends on Venezuelan oil), with Havana facing increased pressure if real change occurs in Caracas.
  • Major signal to international actors, especially Iran.

• Final Caution:

  • “This is a historic moment, but it’s also the beginning of a far more complex phase. The next days and weeks will tell us whether this becomes a managed transition or whether Venezuela enters a period of instability that no one fully controls.” (11:26)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the operation’s scope and planning:

  • “General Kane said approximately 150 aircraft were involved in the operation, including bombers and surveillance platforms, fighter jets, helicopters and remotely piloted drones.” (04:08)

• On international double standards:

  • "Oh well, maybe the Russian Foreign Ministry, busy with its four year invasion of Ukraine should sit this one out." (06:57)

• On lingering regime power:

  • “Maduro was the face of the regime, but not the entirety of it. There are still powerful figures inside Venezuela who matter a great deal.” (08:43)

• On instability and transition:

  • “The next phase could get complicated… transitions like this tend to be unstable.” (09:08)

• On the bigger picture:

  • “The ripple effects will be significant, especially for Cuba… The signal sent by this operation, rightly or wrongly, will be studied in capitals far beyond Latin America.” (10:36)

Important Timestamps

• 00:39 – Main show begins, news of Maduro’s capture breaks
• 03:52 – Details on the military operation and airstrikes
• 05:45 – Capture and legal indictment of Maduro
• 06:24 – International reactions (UN, Mexico, Russia)
• 07:16 – Argentina’s supportive response
• 07:25 – President Trump’s comments on transition
• 08:00 – Congressional response and lack of prior notification
• 08:38 – Analysis of regime power and future risks
• 09:53 – Intelligence, insider support in successful coups
• 10:36 – Broader regional and international impact
• 11:26 – Closing thoughts on complexity and uncertainty ahead

Recap

This episode provides an expert, on-the-ground analysis of the unprecedented direct U.S. intervention in Venezuela, capturing Nicolás Maduro. While historic, Baker emphasizes the uncertain path ahead with lingering regime power and possible regional instability. Listeners are left with a sobering view: the fall of a strongman is only the beginning—the transition may be even more tumultuous.

Mike Baker closes:

“We’ll continue to track it closely, of course—separate facts from speculation—and keep you informed as this story develops.” (11:38)