The President's Daily Brief — September 23, 2025

Host: Mike Baker | Podcast: The President's Daily Brief by The First TV

Episode Overview

On today’s episode, Mike Baker dives into high-stakes developments shaking the world stage:

• Poland, a NATO nation, draws a dangerous new “red line” for Russian jets in its airspace.
• A crippling ransomware attack paralyzes Europe’s busiest airports and exposes cyber vulnerabilities.
• Hamas proposes a dramatic 60-day ceasefire to President Trump in exchange for the release of hostages.
• In the “Back of the Brief,” UK’s recognition of Palestine could trigger massive, unprecedented reparations claims.

1. Poland’s “Shoot Down” Ultimatum to Russian Jets

[01:22 – 08:55]

Key Discussion Points:

• Escalating Tensions:
  Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, issues an unambiguous threat: any Russian aircraft violating Polish airspace will be shot down with “no hesitation, no discussion.”
• Background of Provocations:
  Recent months saw increasing Russian military flights near NATO airspace:
  • Russian planes flying without transponders, ignoring calls, dipping into NATO territory.
  • Most recently: A Russian reconnaissance plane entered neutral Baltic airspace, prompting German and Swedish fighters to scramble ([02:43]).
  • Previously: Three Russian MiG-31s breached Estonian airspace for 12 minutes, the longest in years. Italian F-35s responded, but Russians did not engage ([03:37]).
• Tusk’s Red Line:
  • Mike Baker: “This is the first time that a frontline NATO country has gone on record promising to use lethal force in response.” ([03:04])
  • Direct quote from Tusk:

    “We will make a decision to shoot down flying objects without discussion when they violate our territory and fly over Poland. There is no room for debate here.”
    – PM Donald Tusk ([04:24])

• NATO’s Dilemma:
  • This stance tests the credibility of NATO’s collective security guarantee (“an attack on one is an attack on all”).
  • If Poland acts and the rest of NATO does not back them, “the entire foundation of NATO's security guarantee is at risk” ([07:43]).
• International Response:
  • UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper at the UN:

    “Your reckless actions risk direct armed confrontation between NATO and Russia. Our alliance is defensive, but be under no illusion. We stand ready to defend NATO’s skies and NATO’s territory.” ([05:46])

  • US Ambassador Mike Waltz:

    “[The US and allies will] defend every inch of NATO territory.” ([06:47])

2. Massive Cyber Attack Hits Europe’s Airports

[10:13 – 14:49]

Key Discussion Points:

• Attack Overview:
  • Recent ransomware attack hit Collins Aerospace’s “MUSE” software, used for gate and check-in operations at major European airports.
  • Caused massive disruptions: airports reverted to pen-and-paper, long lines, slow recovery.
• Most Impacted Airports:
  • Brussels: Half of all flights canceled; 40 of 277 departures scrapped in a single day.
  • Berlin: Manual boarding procedures.
  • London Heathrow: Half of departures delayed, though most flights operational ([12:04]).
• Suspected Perpetrators:
  • No official attribution, but insinuations toward Russia abound.
  • Jonathan Hall, UK terrorism reviewer:

    “Anything is possible,” when asked about Russian involvement ([13:25]).

  • Baker:

    “If it walks like a big Cold War bear and talks like a big Cold War bear, it could be the Russian bear.”

• Broader Context:
  • Poland logs 20–50 Russia-linked cyber attacks daily; Romania counted 85,000 incidents during its recent election.
  • Moldova facing Russian-backed cyber activity before its own elections ([13:49]).
• Continued Recovery:
  • Collins Aerospace pushing fixes, but airports are “not rushing back online without proof that the system is now secure” ([12:36]).

3. Hamas’ Ceasefire Proposal to Trump

[14:49 – 16:05]

Key Discussion Points:

• The Proposal:
  • Hamas, via a letter with Qatari intermediaries, offers President Trump a 60-day Gaza ceasefire in exchange for releasing half of the remaining hostages.
• Trump’s Position:
  • Continues to project himself as the ultimate dealmaker who can resolve the conflict.
    • On Truth Social:

      “Everyone wants the hostages home. Everyone wants this war to end. This is my last warning. There will not be another one.” ([15:25])

    • In speech in England: Hostages must be freed “right now.”
• Israeli Stance:
  • PM Netanyahu: Only a single comprehensive agreement involving all hostages will be considered; “no permanent ceasefire until Hamas is destroyed.”
• Context:
  • Similar “60-day” frameworks proposed in Cairo, Doha, and by US special envoy Steve Witkoff earlier this year, but none led to a ceasefire ([15:45]).
• Diplomatic Underpinning:
  • UN General Assembly opens with question of Palestinian statehood; France and UK move to recognize Palestine, a move condemned by Israel.

4. Back of The Brief: UK Might Face £2 Trillion Claim Over Palestine Recognition

[16:55 – end]

Key Discussion Points:

• UK Officially Recognizes Palestine:
  • Prime Minister Keir Starmer joins other Western leaders in recognizing Palestine, drawing fierce backlash from Israel and the US.
• Legal and Financial Repercussions:
  • Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas plans to pursue reparations for the period of the British Mandate (1917–1948).
  • Claims may amount to £2 trillion — nearly the size of the UK economy ([17:10]).
• Legal Rationale:
  • Claims stem from the Balfour Declaration, facilitation of Jewish immigration, and British actions during partition and withdrawal, which Palestinians assert led directly to their dispossession.
• Bottom Line:
  • “In doing so [recognizing Palestine], [Starmer] may also have exposed his country to one of the most costly legal battles in history.” ([18:45])

Notable Quotes

• Mike Baker, on NATO’s challenge:

  “Poland is one of NATO’s most militarily capable members. When its prime minister says we will shoot down the Russians, you have to take that seriously.” ([07:09])

• Host, on cyberattack blame:

  “If it walks like a big Cold War bear and talks like a big Cold War bear, it could be the Russian bear.” ([13:27])

• PM Donald Tusk:

  “We will make a decision to shoot down flying objects without discussion when they violate our territory and fly over Poland. There is no room for debate here.” ([04:24])

• Yvette Cooper (UK Foreign Secretary) at the UN:

  “Your reckless actions risk direct armed confrontation between NATO and Russia. Our alliance is defensive but be under no illusion. We stand ready to defend NATO’s skies and NATO’s territory.” ([05:46])

• Jonathan Hall (UK terrorism reviewer):

  “Anything is possible,” regarding Russian culpability in the cyberattack ([13:25])

• Trump (via Truth Social):

  “Everyone wants the hostages home. Everyone wants this war to end. This is my last warning. There will not be another one.” ([15:25])

Timestamps for Major Segments

• NATO/Poland-Russia Tensions: 01:22 – 08:55
• Europe’s Airport Cyberattack: 10:13 – 14:49
• Hamas Ceasefire Proposal/Trump/Israel: 14:49 – 16:05
• UK Palestine Recognition & Reparations: 16:55 – end

Episode Tone

Direct, urgent, and analytical. Mike Baker maintains a brisk, highly informed delivery throughout, using plain language but drawing on deep intelligence and policy experience. Frequent asides inject seriousness and a subtle sense of gravity, especially when discussing the “escalation ladder” and possible consequences.

This episode offers a comprehensive, high-stakes scan of Europe, the Middle East, and global security for a U.S. audience — distilling the President’s classified morning brief into insightful, actionable updates.