September 25th, 2025: Fuel Shortages In Russia Threaten Putin’s Grip & Iran’s Missile Trouble

Summary

Podcast Summary: The President's Daily Brief

Host: Mike Baker (The First TV)
Episode: September 25th, 2025: Fuel Shortages In Russia Threaten Putin’s Grip & Iran’s Missile Trouble
Date: September 25, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode of The President’s Daily Brief dives into high-stakes global security issues with former CIA Operations Officer Mike Baker. The main themes:

• Ukraine’s escalating campaign against Russian oil refineries and the resulting nationwide fuel shortages threatening Vladimir Putin’s political hold.
• Iran’s frantic efforts to recover its missile production capability after Israeli strikes, spotlighting its critical shortfall in solid fuel manufacturing.
• U.S. domestic policy updates on record-breaking deportations of illegal immigrants under the second Trump administration.
• The expansion of terrorist designation to major Central American gangs, notably Barrio 18, reflecting a broadened U.S. national security strategy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ukraine's Strategic Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure

• Ukrainian drone operations now regularly hit Russian oil refineries, including critical sites like the Salavat Petrochemical complex—over 900 miles from the front lines (02:50).
  • Quote:

    “Over the past several days, Ukrainian drones have hit facilities across Russia, including one of the largest refineries in the country, the Salavat Petrochemical complex in the Bashkortostan region. Now for those of you keeping score, that's about 930 miles from the front lines, showing just how far Ukraine's reach has extended.”
    (Mike Baker, 03:33)

• The impact is significant: gas stations closing, fuel shortages spreading from the Far East and Crimea to the Volga region and central Russia (05:27).
  • Quote:

    “At first, shortages began appearing in Russia's Far east and in Crimea, but now they're spreading into the Volga region and central Russia.”
    (Mike Baker, 05:36)

• Independent fuel stations—which make up around 40% of the Russian market—are hardest hit and closing operations due to lack of supply and high interest rates (06:05).
• The political implications for Putin are grave as shortages spread toward Moscow, his power base, making the war’s impact tangible for ordinary Russians (07:10).
  • Quote:

    “If fuel shortages are no longer limited to the Russian hinterlands... once they reach the Moscow region, that's Putin's stronghold, the core of his political base, that could begin to erode his support. For the first time, ordinary Russians who might otherwise tune out the conflict could feel the pinch directly at the pump.”
    (Mike Baker, 07:12)

• The broader strategy: Kyiv aims to make the domestic cost of war unavoidable for all Russians, shifting public sentiment.

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2. Iran’s Missile Troubles Post-Israeli Strikes

• Iran is racing to rebuild missile plants destroyed by Israel in June, but remains critically short of the industrial mixers essential for making solid rocket propellant (09:26).
• Satellite imagery confirms repairs at three major missile facilities, but the absence of planetary mixers leaves Iran’s missile production essentially frozen (10:10).
  • Quote:

    “Without [planetary mixers], the Iranians can patch concrete and rewire casting halls all they want, but high volume production remains dead in the water.”
    (Mike Baker, 10:29)

• Solid fuel missiles matter: They can be launched quickly and hidden more effectively than older liquid fuel models.
• Numbers that matter: During the 12-Day War in June, Iran fired over 570 ballistic missiles at Israel—consuming about a third of its estimated 2,500-missile arsenal in just 90 days (11:20).
• Chinese assistance under the microscope: While the U.S. sanctioned Chinese firms for aiding Tehran, Beijing remains the likely supplier for replacement technologies, and clandestine efforts are apparent in Syria (12:18).
• Diplomatic overtures: Iranian President Basashkian’s appearance alongside Xi Jinping at China’s victory parade underscores the growing Tehran–Beijing axis, with China offering diplomatic cover (12:48).
  • Quote (Chinese Foreign Ministry):

    “Beijing is willing to continue leveraging its influence to contribute to peace and stability in the Middle East... and they backed Iran's, ‘sovereignty, security and dignity.’”
    (Mike Baker quoting, 13:14)

• UN sanctions loom, but Iran accelerates its shadowy efforts to restore missile capabilities, emphasizing missile production over nuclear facilities.

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3. U.S. Immigration Policy: Record Removals

• 2 million illegal immigrants removed in just under 250 days of President Trump’s new term—1.6 million self-deported, 400,000 directly deported by authorities (14:20).
• Stricter enforcement and new facilities: DHS expanding detention sites—colorfully nicknamed ‘Speedway Slammer,’ ‘Cornhusker Clink,’ and ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ (15:51).
  • Quote:

    “Apparently, it's a requirement that every detention facility should have some sort of snappy nickname.”
    (Mike Baker, 15:58)

• Operational shift: 1,000+ agreements empower local and state law enforcement to target and remove criminal illegal aliens.
• Policy impact: UN studies showing 97% drop in northbound illegal migration from Central America, with deterrence seen as effective (14:50).
  • Quote:

    “A new UN study reported a staggering 97% drop in northbound illegal migration from Central America since Trump's policies roared back into effect.”
    (Mike Baker, 14:47)

• The administration credits strict border enforcement, visible deportation measures, and expanded ICE manpower for the results.

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4. Redefining Terrorism: Barrio 18 Designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization

• Barrio 18, or the 18th Street Gang, now labeled a foreign terrorist organization by the State Department (19:01).
  • Origins: Began in Los Angeles, expanded through U.S. deportations in the 1990s to become a major criminal force in Central America.
  • Activities: Violent extortion, drug trafficking, assassinations, and widespread control over neighborhoods in Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala.
• Implications of the designation:
  • Asset freezes, disruption of funding, legal penalties for material support, and military action justification.
  • Reflects the shift in U.S. policy to treat organized crime as a national security threat equivalent to traditional terrorist groups (21:16).
  • Quote:

    “The label, once reserved for terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda and ISIS, is now being applied to violent gangs and cartels in the Western Hemisphere. That shift signals not just a legal change, but a broader operational strategy treating organized crime as a national security threat on par with terrorism.”
    (Mike Baker, 21:18)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Ukraine’s drone war’s real purpose:

  “Ukraine's drone campaign is not only about cutting off fuel for the Russian military… It's about hitting the Russian people in their daily lives, making the costs of war impossible to ignore.”
  (Mike Baker, 07:41)

• On Iranian and Chinese geopolitics:

  “Apparently Xi Jinping's regime believes that peace and stability can be achieved by backing the mullahs and their Revolutionary Guard Corps, which of course has the often stated objective of destroying Israel. Which hardly seems like peace and stability.”
  (Mike Baker, 13:29)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Ukraine’s Oil Attacks & Russian Fuel Shortages: 01:05–08:55
• Iran’s Missile Program Troubles & Regional Alliances: 09:26–14:19
• U.S. Immigration Crackdown and Policy Update: 14:19–17:41
• Barrio 18 Gang Terrorist Designation: 19:01–21:38

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Tone and Takeaways

Mike Baker brings a direct, pragmatic, and occasionally wry tone—mixing intelligence community insight with pointed observations and dry humor, particularly in his commentary on policy nicknames and diplomatic language. The episode is brisk, filling listeners in with context and the strategic stakes behind the latest headlines.

For those who want a “classified briefing without the classification”—this episode delivers essential updates and analysis on emerging flashpoints that could reshape world security and American domestic policy.

Transcript

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Foreign.

[Mike Baker]

It's Thursday, the 25th of September. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Oh, and before we get started, a quick apology for the lack of a new PDB afternoon bulletin yesterday. As you might have noticed, I'm on the road again and apparently you can't always count on the airlines to be on time. Who knew? Anyway, we're back to a normal schedule, so a brand new afternoon bulletin will hit the airwaves later today. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries, and the impact inside Russia is spreading. Fuel shortages are spreading across the country, leaving Moscow scrambling to respond. I'll have those details later in the show. Iran reportedly fears another war with Israel and is racing to rebuild its missile factories. But experts say Tehran still can't produce the solid fuel needed to power those missiles. Plus, the Trump administration says 2 million illegal immigrants are already out of the country, either deported or self deported in just eight months. And in today's back of the brief, the Trump administration slaps a terrorist label on one of Central America's most violent gangs. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. We're beginning today with Ukraine's ongoing campaign against Russia's energy sector, specifically its oil refineries. Now, this has become one of Kyiv's most effective tools in the war, striking not just military targets, but the very infrastructure that keeps Russia's economy running and its war machine fueled. Over the past several days, Ukrainian drones have hit facilities across Russia, including one of the largest refineries in the country, the Salavat Petrochemical complex in the Bashkortostan region. Now for those of you keeping score, that's about 930 miles from the front lines, showing just how far Ukraine's reach has extended. Salavat, which is run by Russian energy giant Gazprom, produces more than 150 types of products, from gasoline and diesel to polyethylene. Ukrainian drones struck the site early Monday, setting off a massive blaze. Photos and video circulating on Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels showed black smoke pouring into the sky. Ukraine's security service confirmed it carried out the strike, while local officials scrambled to contain the damage. Emergency crews rushed in, and the regional governor tried to reassure the public. But the images spoke louder. One of Russia's biggest industrial facilities was burning, and Salavat was just one target. Ukrainian drones also struck oil facilities in multiple regions, setting fires, damaging infrastructure, and killing at least two people. Some refineries have been forced offline, and reports say the Ustluga fuel terminal on the Baltic Sea could take up to six months to repair. All told, at least 10 major Russian refineries have been targeted in recent weeks, and the impact is beginning to show now. According to traders and retailers who spoke with Reuters, Russian refining capacity has dropped by as much as 20% on certain days. That's begun creating shortages of the most common types of gasoline used in the country now. At first, shortages began appearing in Russia's Far east and in Crimea, but now they're spreading into the Volga region and central Russia. Crimea, in particular is being hit hard, in part because the peninsula is more isolated from Russia's main supply networks. It's already seeing stations close their doors altogether, with residents saying pumps are empty and workers are being sent home because, well, there's nothing to sell. Independent stations, about 40% of the market, are getting hit the hardest. They don't have the financial reserves to buy and stockpile fuel, especially with Russian interest rates running so high, so many of them are simply shutting down. That's why Ukraine's strategy matters. The strikes aren't just damaging Russia's industrial base. They're creating visible daily disruptions for ordinary Russians. And in the country where Vladimir Putin has built his political legitimacy on the promise of stability, the those disruptions could become significant. Earlier this summer, the Russian government instituted a temporary Russian gasoline export ban to combat the growing shortages. It's now looking to extend that ban through the end of October and is even considering adding diesel to the list. Officials insist there's enough supply and that disruptions are temporary. But the fact that Moscow is resorting to export bans at all suggests that the problem has become serious. Now, here's the key point in all of this. If fuel shortages are no longer limited to the Russian hinterlands, they're creeping westward. And once they reach the Moscow region, that's Putin's stronghold, the core of his political base, that could begin to erode his support. For the first time, ordinary Russians who might otherwise tune out the conflict could feel the pinch directly at the pump. That's the deeper strategy here. Ukraine's drone campaign is not only about cutting off fuel for the Russian military, though that is important. It's about hitting the Russian people in their daily lives, making the costs of war impossible to ignore. Fuel keeps cars moving, businesses operating, and goods transported. And once it becomes scarce, anger and frustration can spread fast. At the UN earlier this week, President Trump declared that Russia's economy was stalling under the weight of the war. The Kremlin dismissed that, but it did admit that tensions and problem areas exist in various sectors of the economy. Those problem areas are beginning to pile up. Bankruptcies are rising. Exports are falling. And now gas stations are running dry. And for Ukraine, every drone strike that sparks a fire or shutters a gas station is one more reminder to Russians that the war is coming home. So while the headlines often focus on tanks and artillery and the battle for territory and drones, this campaign against Russia's energy infrastructure may be just as consequential. All right, coming up after the break, Iran scrambles to rebuild its missile program without the fuel to power it. And the Trump administration says 2 million illegal immigrants have already left the country. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question about protecting your hard earned assets. 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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the pdb Iran is picking up the pieces, scrambling to rebuild missile factories that Israel flattened in June, a rush driven by fear of another strike. But the Islamic regime remains crippled by one missing link, the industrial mixers needed to again make solid rocket propellant. Now satellite imagery from Planet Labs, reviewed by the Associated Press, shows patchwork repairs at Parchin, Sharud, and Kojir. Those are the sites targeted by Israel three months ago. As we've discussed here on the pdb, the strikes created buildings and hit the mixing halls where planetary mixers churned out the fuel that powered Iran's solid fuel arsenal. The mullah's rush to rebuild underscores how central these machines are to the regime's deterrent. And the 12 Day War in June wasn't Israel's first swing. The sites were also hit back in October of 2024, proof of a sustained Israeli campaign to grind down Iran's capabilities. Now stand by for a very simplistic explanation of planetary mixers. Essentially, they blend volatile ingredients into a stable fuel. See, I did warn you that I was oversimplifying. Solid fuel missiles are prized because they can be stored ready to fire, unlike liquid fuel rockets that must be loaded just prior to launch. That readiness shortens launch windows, increases mobility, and aids in disguising or concealing missile locations. For the Islamic regime's missile industry, the planetary mixers are irreplaceable. Without them, the Iranians can patch concrete and rewire casting halls all they want, but high volume production remains Dead in the water. The stakes for the regime are written in numbers. The Washington based Jewish Institute for National Security of America reports the mullahs fired more than 570 ballistic missiles at Israel during that 12 day war alone. Add another 330 missiles fired from earlier flare ups confirmed by the American think tank the James Martin center for Non Proliferation Studies, and it's clear Iran blew through a third of its arsenal of an estimated 2,500 missiles in just 90 days. Now, before the Israeli strikes, Iran's factories were on track to Turn out over 200 solid fuel missiles per month. That pipeline is now reportedly frozen, so the rebuilding effort depends on outside help. Washington last month blacklisted several Chinese firms accused of shipping propellant chemicals to Tehran. But experts say Beijing still remains the likeliest source for propellant mixers to the mullahs. And there are already signs that the network between Beijing and Tehran stretches wider. Satellite evidence suggests a planetary mixer has been shifted to a sub training facility In Syria, some 100 miles north of Damascus. It's a hint of the shadow supply chain that Iran can t in an effort to rebuild. And there are other ominous threads. In April, a deadly explosion at an Iranian port killed at least 70 people, with analysts linking the blast to mishandled missile chemicals. And while nuclear facilities hit by Israel in June remained largely idle, satellite evidence shows that the missile sites are humming with activity, a clear indicator of Tehran's priorities. Diplomatic cover is also in play. Earlier this month, Iranian President Masoud Basashkian stood beside Chinese President Xi Jinping at China's victory day parade. How did you get an invitation to that parade? It was quite something. Though Beijing issued no detailed readout of the two leaders conversations. When asked directly about aiding Tehran, China's Foreign Ministry said, quote, beijing is willing to continue leveraging its influence to contribute to peace and stability in the Middle east, end quote. And they backed Iran's, quote, sovereignty, security and dignity. Apparently Xi Jinping's regime believes that peace and stability can be achieved by backing the mullahs and their Revolutionary Guard Corps, which of course has the often stated objective of destroying Israel. Which hardly seems like peace and stability. Maybe those words don't mean what Xi Jinping thinks they mean. Although at least they're consistent once again striving for peace and stability by feeding Vladimir Putin's war machine. But I digress. So the optics are deliberate. The Iranian regime is signaling defiance and looking outward to rebuild what was lost in June, even as looming UN snapback sanctions threaten to tighten the vise on the regime's. Missile program this month. Alright. Turning stateside and President Trump's immigration crackdown is showing results with the administration reporting that approximately 2 million illegal immigrants have been removed from the country in under 250 days. According to a Department of Homeland security press release, 1.6 million illegals have voluntarily left the country, while another 400,000 were deported by federal agents. DHS called it a new milestone. At the current pace, nearly 600,000 illegal immigrants will be deported by the end of Trump's first year back in office. It's a record unmatched in U.S. history. The statement from DHS said, quote, the era of open borders is over. For four consecutive months, custom and border protection has released, quote, zero illegal aliens into the interior of the country. Trump administration officials argue the numbers prove the president's return to office has flipped the script on border enforcement. DHS assistant secretary Trisha McLaughlin drove the point home, saying Trump's policies and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's leadership are, quote, making American communities safe. She stressed that stepped up enforcement is targeting, quote, the worst of the worst, while sending an unmistakable warning to everyone else in the country illegally to leave on their own or to be removed forcefully. From January 20th. The White House worked to showcase the immigration crackdown as we covered here on the pdb just days into Trump's second term, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt posted photos of migrants boarding deportation flights to social media, declaring, quote, president Trump is sending a strong and clear message to the entire world. If you illegally enter the US you will face severe consequences, end quote. That message has since reverberated abroad. A new UN study reported a staggering 97% drop in northbound illegal migration from Central America since Trump's policies roared back into effect. In the study, nearly half of the would be illegal migrants admitted that they abandoned their journey because they knew they couldn't breach Trump's US border enforcement, while another 46% cited fear of detention or deportation. Inside the US ICE is surging in manpower with more than 150,000 job applicants in recent weeks. And in an effort to meet the demand of rising detainees, Secretary Noem is expanding detention capacity. DHS confirmed negotiations for new detention facilities nicknamed quote and I'm not making this up, Speedway, Slammer, Cornhusker, Clink and Louisiana Lockup, joining the already operational alligator Alcatraz to absorb the flow of illegals picked up in the US in preparation for their removal. Apparently, it's a requirement that every detention facility should have some sort of snappy nickname. On top of that, more than 1,000 new agreements with DHS have been signed empowering state and local law enforcement across 40 states to arrest illegal criminals, gang members, rapists and terrorists for removal. Trump administration officials say that these partnerships, coupled with the new facilities will make enforcement, quote, more efficient and streamlined than ever before, paving the way for even more deportations. With record removals already logged, self deportations climbing. And even the UN Acknowledging Trump's deterrence effect, the administration insists its message is sinking in. Illegal immigration has slowed to a trickle and the deportation surge is accelerating. Coming up next. In today's Back of the brief, the Barrio 18 gang joins the list of Latin American groups that the Trump administration is labeling as foreign terrorist organizations. More on that when we come back.

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[Mike Baker]

In today's Back of the Brief, the US has just added another name to its list of foreign terrorist organizations and that would be Barrio 18. The State Department made the announcement Tuesday saying the notorious gang has carried out attacks on officials, security personnel and civilians across Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. Officials called Barrio 18 one of the largest gangs in the Northern hemisphere. Now, an interesting fact about Barrio 18, which is also known as the 18th Street Gang, is that it traces its roots not to Central America, but to the US specifically to Los Angeles in the 1960s. Originally formed by Mexican immigrants who were excluded from other street gangs, they decided to form their own club and the group spread rapidly across Southern California before eventually taking hold in Central America. Its growth accelerated in the 1990s when u. S. Deportation policies sent thousands of gang members back to their home countries countries. Once In Central America, Barrio 18 entrenched itself in Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala, where it built a reputation for extreme violence and control of neighborhoods. The gang is infamous for extortion rackets, drug trafficking and brutal enforcement tactics, including assassinations of police and public officials. With a designation, Barrio 18 now sits on the same list as Ms. 13, Trendo, Agua, or TDA, and some of the biggest drug cartels in the world, including Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation. It's also been tagged as a specially designated global terrorist group, a move that freezes assets, cuts off funding streams, and opens the door for prosecutions against anyone who provides material support. Since the start of Trump's second term, more than a dozen groups have been designated under this label, including eight cartels earlier this year. The administration has used the designations to justify lethal military strikes, such as those against suspected drug smuggling boats off Venezuela's coast. In a statement, the State Department said, quote, the United States will continue to protect our nation by keeping illicit drugs off our streets and disrupting the revenue streams funding the violent and criminal activity of vicious gangs and drug cartels. Look, even the State Department has run on sentences. The label, once reserved for terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda and isis, is now being applied to violent gangs and cartels in the Western Hemisphere. That shift signals not just a legal change, but a broader operational strategy treating organized crime as a national security threat on par with terrorism. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Thursday 25th September. If you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and to listen to the show ad free. Well, you know that you can do that, and it's very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com and when you get the chance, don't forget to check out our YouTube channel. You can find that, of course, on YouTube at President's Daily Brief. Please check it out and subscribe if you get the chance. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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