Transcript
Scott Galloway (0:00)
Support for Propg comes from Crescent Family Office as an entrepreneur, you spend a lot of time and energy building your business, and chances are you've been so busy there hasn't been a ton of time to think about preparing for an exit. Tax Strategies and Wealth Management. Crescent is here to help wealth creators and families like yours streamline complexity and invest for the future. Crescent was built by Entrepreneurs for entrepreneurs with financial advisory teams who embrace their fiduciary duty to place the client's interests first. You can learn how to optimize your life by scheduling a call with a crescent founder@crescentcapital.com we are not clients of Crescent. There are no material conflicts other than this paid endorsement. All investing involves risks, including loss of principal. Nerds Support for the show comes from NerdWallet. When it comes to finding the best financial products, have you ever wished someone would do the heavy lifting for you? Take all that research off your plate? Well, with NerdWallet's 2025 Best of Award, that wish has come true. The nerds in NerdWallet are on it. They have already reviewed more than 1100 financial products like credit card saving accounts and more in order to highlight and bring you the best of the best. Check out the 2025 Best of Awards today@nerdwallet.com awards.
Sahil Bloom (1:16)
It's time to review the highlights. I'm joined by my co anchor Snoop.
Scott Galloway (1:19)
Hey, what up doe snoop?
Sahil Bloom (1:20)
Number one has to be getting iPhone 16 with Apple Intelligence AT T Mobile. Yeah, you should hustle down to T Mobile like a dog chasing a squirrel chasing a nut. Number two at T mobile families can switch and save 20% on plans plus streaming services versus the other big guys. What a deal.
Scott Galloway (1:35)
Y'all giving it away too fast.
Sahil Bloom (1:36)
T Mobile slow down. Head to T mobile.com and get iPhone 16 on them. Yeah, you can save on wireless and streaming versus the other big guys. @t mobile.com/apple intelligence requires iOS 18.1 or later.
Scott Galloway (1:47)
Episode 334334 is the area code covering southeastern Alabama. 1934 Alcatraz opened as a federal prison. True story. I have a friend who has sex three to four times a week, works out every day and reads at least two books a week. And all this guy ever does is bitch about prison. Go, go go. Welcome to the 334th episode of the Prop G Pod. What's happening? The dog is back in the incredible city of London. That's right where the sun has decided to go on vacation. The sun has decided to take fall winter And I would imagine spring off, I did have a wonderful weekend. Let's bring this back to me. What are the wonderful things about London? One, it's a great city. Two, Premier League football, maybe that's number one. Three, probably first and foremost, that's actually a broad one, is proximity to the continent. So what did I do with my 14 year old this weekend? We went to Pancras. San Pancras train station, which is literally 10 minutes from my house. Got on the Eurostar, which is lovely. Which is lovely. And I mean zoomed at like 330 kilometers per hour. I love public infrastructure. I say raise taxes and just build shit that the public can use. Gare du Nord. Two hours and 21 minutes later and then boom, in our hotel, we went to the Notre Dame. Jesus Christ. I believe that God hangs out there now. Oh my God. Oh, my God. We're sitting in line for 70 minutes with every tourist from everywhere, including myself. Wow. Wow. Notre to the Dom. Jesus Christ. Seriously. But more importantly, stayed at a beautiful hotel, went to the pool with my son. Because when you have a son, you always gotta go to the pool. You always gotta go to the pool, full stop. Gotta check out the pool. That's how we evaluate hotels, is by the pool. Then we went upstairs to this fancy Tony restaurant and had light apps, which was delightful. And then the highlight of the trip, we went to the PSG game. 20 minutes to the stadium. Boom. Parking wasn't that bad. Into the stadium. Amazing fans. We saw them. Tie rins. Great game, fantastic fans. It was raining, but the stadium is designed really well, so we didn't get rained on. And then boom, back to the hotel in just like 22 minutes. What a wonderful, wonderful city. Anyways, that's what I'm doing. Today we speak with Sahil Bloom, an investor, entrepreneur and writer known for his newsletter, the Curiosity Chronicle. That's kind of an interesting name, the Curiosity Crown. That sounds like it should be on pbs. We discussed with Sahil his latest book, the five types of a transformative guide to design your dream life. Okay, moving on to a shakeup in the AI world. Oh, my God. What are we going to talk about? This is kind of the business story of the week. Deepseek, a Chinese startup that's just over a year old, sent shockwaves through the global tech markets with an AI model that's as powerful as OpenAI's ChatGPT or Google's Gemini. But it was built with just a fraction of the usual resources. Deepseek R1 was trained using just 2,000 Nvidia chips and 6 million in computing power. That's about 10 times less than what Meta spent on building its latest AI technology. Why does this matter? This signals a major shift, maybe even a paradigm shift in AI development. Less money and fewer chips equals more players, right? The market essentially has been rewarding investment over innovation, and the small number of players have been running away with it. Specifically the ones that have the capital to deploy basically the defense budget of China, which is the capital on their balance sheets and how much they are spending on developing these data centers, buying Nvidia GPUs. I mean, just this staggering investment here, and then all of a sudden comes this innovation where the chips are speaking to each other in a more efficient way, as opposed to traditional models that had to be trained in a house where all appliances and all lights are on at the same time. This just said, we figured out a way that you only have to have the lights on in the room you're in and is consuming a fraction of the processing power and the energy, if you will. Deepseek just proved it's no longer a game dominated by US tech giants. And this is essentially the market has said, again, maybe we overestimated investment versus innovation, but there's more to the story. Deepseek didn't just develop this tech, they open sourced it. That means they shared the underlying code for others to build on. While open sourced AI accelerates innovation, it does come with serious risks. Many experts argue that US companies shouldn't open source their technologies because they could be exploited to spread disinformation or even create autonomous weapons. This has essentially given the Chinese, you could argue, sort of open source the opportunity to catch up and even blow by this. And this has so many kind of second order effects. First off, not only did chip stocks fall or the AI stocks fall, and we'll talk more about that, but the second order effects was that there had been an equally vicious runup of energy stocks. Because the choking point in what we thought was going to be an energy hungry AI world, you saw Constellation Energy, you saw all these energy stocks skyrocket. They had a significant drawdown because maybe energy isn't going to be as scarce as we had originally thought because of the fact that AI may not be quite as power hungry as we'd originally anticipated. This is really shaking up global markets. I wouldn't say investors are panicking, but there's definitely been a drawdown. Nvidia shares plummeted 17% on Monday after Deepseek debuted its AI system. Wiping out. Get the 600 billion in market value. This marked Nvidia's worst trading day since the pandemic crash in 2020. Now having said that requires some context here. That takes them all the way back to where the stock was in October. And when stocks run up like this, it is like a balloon inflating. And if it becomes more and more inflated, slash overinflated, the smallest scratch can pop the balloon. And I think that in addition to this news, it's likely that these stocks had had such incredible run ups that the market was looking for kind of any excuse or any slight brush of the balloon to pop, if you will. But still, this gives you a sense also of how scary it is to have markets as concentrated, because at $600 billion you have essentially wiped out the value of a smaller stock market. I mean, that's the value of the entire global auto industry, sans Tesla. And this is what happens when markets are allowed to get too concentrated. The other second order effect I find fascinating. Son fascinado. Okay, what's French and what's French and fast? What's fascinating in French? I don't know. But anyways, effectively you have this argument for global trade and that is what would have happened if we had continued to ship Nvidia chips to China. Would they have been as motivated to figure out a workaround here that would have resulted in, in what is probably. I mean, this is just. I'm blown away. I'm blown away. But at the same time, this kind of is following where most markets evolve to and that is eventually over time, everything goes Android and iOS. What do I mean by that? Scott? What do you mean by that? What's going on? You're on a train, you're in the channel, you're underneath water, you're going 320 kilometers per hour. It's time to put on your thinking cap. You have peace, do some deep breathing and then really bring us some blue flame clarity here. Essentially every market bifurcates into Walmart or Tiffany and that is as a species. The easiest way to process information is zeros and ones. And we've essentially based all innovation or computing on binary code. 0 and 1. Why? It is easy to understand. Yes and no. It's easy to understand. I'm interested in you. I'm not interested in you. I'm friend, I'm foe. Right, so we distill everything down to a basic binary decision framework. That is the fastest way to make decisions. It is the fastest way to process information. So the entire consumer World bifurcates into a binary set of decisions. Do I want the most stuff at the lowest price? Okay, that's Amazon. Okay, that's Walmart. Okay, that's Costco. Do I want something more artisanal, that's special, that has self expressive benefit, that makes me feel as if I'm in the company of God. By the way, the reason why we buy luxury goods is one, it makes us more attractive to potential mates. When I have a Porsche, it says I'm a baller. When I'm a member of Maison Estelle or the New Crane Club or Che Margaux. I just went there last week. Oh my God, talk about a lot of hot people. Jesus Christ. I mean, come on, where do those people come up? They're like those warlocks or whatever they are. Where do they come from? Do they just descend from the ground at like 9pm and go to these members only clubs in New York anyway? 0 and 1, right? The 1, the artisanal stuff, self expressive benefit. And 2 and 2, making you more attractive to mates makes you feel closer to God. The mesh in a Bottega Veneta bag, the slope on the back of a Range Rover makes you feel like it stills you in the presence of something. Why do we do that? Why do we slow down and find inspiration and spirituality as if we're closer to God? It's because the majority of the great artisanal work throughout history has been sequestered in mosques, temples and churches. When you go into St. Peter's Cathedral you're like, oh my God. You see the Pieta? Is that what it's called? You think Jesus Christ. Maybe God does hang out here. Or God. Maybe Jesus Christ does hang out here. Maybe they're both together. Maybe it's a father son basketball tournament. By the way, by far the best moment I've ever had. Ever had. One of the top moments I've ever had was father son basketball game. Eighth grade, Gulf Stream. Daddy had practice in the backyard with his son. Boom. Steals the ball, break away, dish off to his son. Three, two, one. Scores the layup. Eighth grade wins. Hello. My son has never been less embarrassed of me in his life. Anyway, back to me. You have churches and mosques where we got used to seeing these incredible works of artisanship such that when we see these really beautiful things, it does still us. It makes us feel more spiritual, makes us feel maybe this is all worthwhile or maybe there's some. Maybe I'm going to go hang out with my parents and my old dog or something. Like that. But this is the one. That's the one. The zero is the low cost. Everything is bifurcating the zero one. Now the question is, I would offer, I would posit, I would argue is the following, Is AI going the same way of all retail and all consumer markets? Are we going to have a zero layer, super inexpensive open source build on things? And then are we going to have the Tiffany and the artisanship? And that is companies will still spend a great deal of money on a massive amount of compute, super sophisticated LLMs that do more sophisticated, artisanal, difficult work. In that we're essentially going where every market is going. And that is we're going Android. You can get a free phone with a great operating system for free essentially if you go Android or iOS where the cost of a phone will command 3 months average salary of a Hungarian. So I don't know if this is the end of kind of AI as we know it or these companies. There is a risk here and that is when you have the magnificent 10 representing 27% of the S and P and now the S and p, or the US market represents 50% of global value of 13% of the global economy kind of wrapped up or at least led by a small number of companies. And if one sneezes, the entire fucking thing might catch a cold. And that is the world might, or the world economy might get pneumonia if there's a serious drawdown in these stocks. I also think it reflects some of our arrogance that people like me have been out there saying we're all AI who's doing anything important around AI. And China said, I know China's core competence, they're exercising here. China's core competence, supply chain and number two, IP theft. They basically steal the plans of the IP and the plans, the architectural plans of a cell tower from Siemens and instead of building it for $200,000, they offer it for 40,000. The majority of people think espionage is some good looking guy killing another agent and then banging the foreign agent or the double agent and then rolling around in an Aston Martin. No, that's not espionage. Espionage is the following. It's, it's an overweight guy who's the personal assistant to some attache or some senior executive at Google who gets proprietary information on their new LLM or their new search algorithm, puts it on a thumb drive and then gives it to his handler and then they ship it to Beijing. The majority of espionage right now isn't about killing spies or state secrets. It's about corporate espionage. This is economic warfare. Think about how few wars there are really, when you think about it, relative to the economic warfare that takes place every day. So number one, confidence of China is in fact supply chain. Number two is IP theft or specifically espionage. By the way. That's not unusual. If you want to grow your economy faster than 5% a year, you have to engage in massive theft, which is what we did during the 19th century when we stole European textile and manufacturing technology and littered the eastern seaboard with these factories where we could take advantage of our abundant resources. We even kidnapped artisans and people could operate this machinery. So IP theft is not unique to China. They're just doing it better than us and we're pissed off about it. This is kind of the ultimate example, right? They took our open source, they sort of borrowed it. So it's not really theft. Call it IP leasing. And they said, I know we can come up with more for less. We did a workaround, not because you wouldn't ship us those fancy American chips. And we have figured out potentially a way to have the Walmart of AI. This will rock the markets. But I would argue, I would argue this is a natural evolution where we're bifurcating into zeros and ones or Walmart and Tiffany. We'll be right back for our conversation with Sahil Bloom. Support for Prop Tea comes from 1-800-Flowers. Valentine's Day is coming up and you can let that someone in your life know just how special they are with the help of 1-800-FLowers.com. they offer beautiful, high quality bouquets. And this year, you can get double the roses for free. When you buy one dozen from 1-800-flowers, they'll double your bouquet to two dozen roses. Of course, roses are a classic, sweet way to say I love you. And 1-800-FLowers lets you share that message without breaking the bank. All of their roses are picked at their peak, cared for every step of the way and shipped fresh to ensure lasting beauty. Our producer Claire ordered from 1-800-Flowers and she thought they were just wonderful. Her partner was just so delighted, so delighted. Strengthen the relationship. Their bouquets are selling fast and you can lock in your order today. Win their heart this Valentine's Day at 1800-flowers.com. to claim your double your roses offer, go to 1-800-flowers.com profg. That's 1-800flowers.com profg. Support for the show comes from Vanta. Trust isn't just earned, it's demanded. Whether you're a startup founder navigating your first audit or a seasoned security professional scaling your GRC program. Proving your commitment to security has never been more critical or more complex. That's where Vanta comes in. Businesses use Vanta to establish trust by automating compliance needs across over 35 frameworks, including SoC2 and ISO 27001. They also centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. Vanta not only saves you time, it can also save you money. A new IDC white paper found that Vanta customers achieve $535,000 per year in benefits, and the platform pays for itself in just three months. Join over 9,000 global companies, including Atlassian, Quora and Factory, who use Vanta to manage risk and prove security in real time. For a limited time, our audiences get $1,000 off vanta@vanta.com profg that's V-A-N-ProP G for $1,000 off. Support for the show comes from the Fundrise Innovation Fund. Think of the five biggest names in AI today. How many of those companies do you own shares of? Probably not many. Maybe one, maybe two. Why is that? Because the open AIs and anthropics of the world are still private. That means unless you're an employee or a vc, you're out of luck. So it isn't hard to see why venture capital has been one of the most prized asset classes in the world. But unless you're worth eight or nine figures, you likely don't have access to these funds. The Fundrise Innovation Fund is different. It's already raised more than $150 million. It holds a portfolio of pre IPO tech companies that are valued at tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. And most importantly, it's open to investors of all sizes. Visit fundrise.com propg to check out the Innovation Funds portfolio and start investing today. Relevant disclaimers can be found at the end of the show and@funrise.com innovation welcome back. Here's our conversation with Sahil Bloom, an investor, entrepreneur and writer known for his newsletter the Curiosity Chronicle. Sahil, where does this podcast find you?
