The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway: "Can China Beat the U.S. Back to the Moon?"

China Decode Series with Alice Han & James King
Episode Date: October 21, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of China Decode dives into the intensifying U.S.–China rivalry, focusing on whether China could surpass the U.S. in returning to the Moon. Co-hosts Alice Han and James King explore three interconnected topics:

• The escalating U.S.–China trade war and rare earths export controls,
• The UK-China spy scandal's impact on geopolitics,
• And the renewed space race: Can China beat the U.S. back to the Moon?

Throughout, Han and King offer expert analysis, draw historical parallels, and share on-the-ground insights, balancing deep dives with accessible explainers.

Segment 1: U.S.–China Trade War & Rare Earths Export Controls

[02:02 – 17:00]

Context and Escalation

• Alice Han sets the stakes: the latest bouts in the U.S.–China trade war could have massive implications for the global economy. New export controls, rare earth restrictions, chip embargoes, and bureaucratic hurdles are making headlines and raising anxiety globally.
• The two hosts agree that while some see these as a passing phase, emotions and rhetoric have reached new extremes.

What Are Export Controls?

• James King offers a primer ([07:36]):

  "On October 9, China's Ministry of Commerce came out with a slew of new regulations on these rare earth exports… these are crucial minerals used in everything from smartphones to electric vehicles… also key to many weapons such as submarine engines, radar systems, missile guidance systems, even the F35 U.S. fighter jet."

• New Chinese controls now demand that even products made outside China, if they include as little as 0.1% Chinese rare earths, require a Chinese license to export—a massive administrative escalation.

• China processes about 90% of the world’s rare earths, and now claims a regulatory chokehold over global supply chains.

Rhetoric & International Fallout

• James King notes the sharp diplomatic language ([05:19]):

  "Scott Besant, the U.S. treasury secretary, said 'when it comes to trade, this is China versus the world… If Beijing does not withdraw its threat to restrict exports of these rare earth minerals, then the world will have to decouple from China.'"

• In retaliation, China aired nationalistic propaganda, including video of Mao Zedong vowing never to yield during the Korean War.

Immediate and Long-term Impact

• Alice Han reflects on China’s aggressive move, suggesting it backfired:

  "China is trying to backpedal a little bit on this issue because it didn’t realize how big a deal it was for a lot of these G7 countries. But I think the cat is out of the bag already…" ([09:30])

• Han sees supply chain resilience as the G7’s likely response, but underscores that in the short term (the next three years), China can exert "maximum pressure" due to its stranglehold.

• James King adds:

  "We're beginning to make out the contours of the U.S. government being really galvanized by this issue... And investors starting to follow that lead, thinking, wow, there’s going to be such a shortage of rare earths that are produced outside China. This has got to be an opportunity." ([12:37])

Noteworthy Factoids

• China has 50% of global reserves, mines 70%, and processes 90% of rare earths; the U.S. has just 13% of reserves, and most mining halted after 2000. ([15:26])

Segment 2: UK-China Spy Scandal & National Security

[19:13 – 30:37]

Overview & Political Fallout

• Alice Han introduces the recent UK spy case, in which two men allegedly passed intelligence to China. The charges were abruptly dropped, causing political uproar.

• James King analyzes British media’s obsession with the story, comparing it to Cold War-era spy fascination.

• Key Contradiction:

  “The Director of Public Prosecution said that the British government had failed to provide sufficient evidence that China was, quote, a threat to national security… But…Matthew Collins, deputy National Security Adviser… says that China is a threat to national security.” ([21:00])

• This contradiction—was the case dropped for lack of evidence, or was politics at play?—leads to fierce partisan attacks.

• Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused the Labour government of "undermining Britain’s national security because you are too weak to do anything other than appease China." ([25:33])

• Han points out the irony: the events occurred under a Conservative government, which previously sought a “golden relationship” with China.

The Security–Economics Tradeoff

• The UK, says Han, has prioritized commercial interests with China, offering a milder stance than the U.S.
• James King cites a UK National Cybersecurity Centre report ([27:04]):

  "74% of UK IT leaders… identified China as a top concern behind cyber attacks. And that was a bigger percentage than was applied to any other country."

• Serious incidents include attempted breaches of UK essential services, occurring nearly once every two days.

Shifting Policy Orientations

• King predicts:

  “…security concerns will gradually eclipse the economic benefits and I think the orientation of policy will turn gradually more cautious towards China.” ([29:23])

• Han adds that China’s diplomatic ambitions, e.g., plans for a massive “super embassy” in London, could be delayed as a result of rising tensions.

Segment 3: The Renewed Space Race — Who Will Make It Back to the Moon First?

[32:08 – 41:55]

The Stakes and Historical Parallels

• Alice Han sets the scene:

  “…with many observers noting that China may have the resources to beat America back to the moon… NASA, along with Elon Musk, SpaceX as a partner, announced the Artemis 3 mission… planned for 2027. But some high profile launch failures have raised concerns…” ([32:08])

• Han compares the situation to the original U.S.–Soviet space race, noting that great power rivalry drives technological innovation. China’s drive (“taikonauts”) is reminiscent of the USSR’s push that once spurred U.S. action.

Where Do the U.S. and China Stand?

• The U.S. has 9,000 satellites in orbit and spends 10 times more than China; China has rapidly grown to 900 satellites, recently overtaking the UK for second place.
• U.S. space efforts depend heavily on private initiatives, especially SpaceX; China’s are calculated, state-driven, and highly centralized.

Chinese Lunar Ambitions

• James King highlights Xi Jinping’s obsession with space ([35:41]):

  “Xi Jinping is what we would call a big space nut. I mean, he talks boldly about going into space, using celestial bodies for human advancement. He talks about human intraplanetary exploration…”

• China’s goal: land humans on the moon by 2030. Successfully tested a lunar lander (“Langyue”) in 2025, which Chinese media claim will serve as a living space, power source, and data center right on the lunar surface.

• Key question:

  “Is it just wanting to put somebody onto the moon and gain the propaganda success… Or is it going after what’s on the moon, resources, maybe even some of the rare earths… Maybe China wants to claim parts of the moon…” ([35:41])

Approaches to Space Exploration

• Alice Han notes major differences:

  “China is not privy to the research sharing of the Artemis Accord… China instead launched its own rival initiative called the International Lunar Research Station Initiative with Russia and a host of other countries—largely small Global South countries…” ([39:07])

• The U.S. model is public–private (SpaceX, Starlink); China’s is centralized and state run.

• Han draws a parallel to COVID-19 vaccine development, with the U.S. benefiting from close ties between government and innovative private firms—a model that could provide the competitive edge in space.

• Memorable fact: SpaceX controls 65% of all active satellites in orbit; Musk wants Starlink as the “de facto broadband backbone of space.”

Segment 4: Predictions

[41:55 – 44:54]

James King’s Prediction:

“The most important technology aspect of the Chinese plenum this month will be artificial intelligence… China’s approach… is to use AI as applications to drive just about every other form of human endeavor… I think that there will be a plan explicitly which will say that AI needs to be incorporated in 90% of the equipment and applications by 2030 in six broad sectors.”
—James King, [42:13]

King expects the next five-year plan to mark a decisive deepening of China’s AI ambitions, with economic, defense, and governance implications.

Alice Han’s Prediction:

“I've been reading a lot about the future potential Prime Minister of Japan… known as the Japanese Thatcher, the Iron Lady. She will be the first female prime minister of Japan and she will lead a very, I think, hawkish pivot again on China policy… Japan may ultimately get a nuclear bomb that may change the strategic balance on the Korean peninsula, on Taiwan Strait relations, on the China issue writ large… I sense that maybe Xi and Trump will be the new Thatcher and Reagan of our times.”
—Alice Han, [44:26]

Han believes a more assertive Japanese administration could herald a major regional shift and encourage further alignment among G7 countries in countering China.

Most Memorable Quotes & Moments

• "China is trying to backpedal a little bit on this issue because it didn’t realize how big a deal it was for a lot of these G7 countries. But... I think the cat is out of the bag already."
  – Alice Han on rare earth export controls ([09:30])

• "74% of UK IT leaders... identified China as a top concern behind cyber attacks. And that was a bigger percentage than was applied to any other country."
  – James King summarizing UK cybersecurity anxieties ([27:04])

• "Xi Jinping is what we would call a big space nut… talks about human intraplanetary exploration. He really loves the whole topic."
  – James King on Xi Jinping’s ambitions ([35:41])

• "SpaceX conducts 52% of all global orbital launches and it controls more than 7,600 satellites. That's 65% of all active satellites in orbit. And Musk has made it very clear that he wants Starlink to be the de facto broadband backbone of space."
  – Alice Han ([39:07])

Key Takeaways

• Great Power Tensions: U.S.–China relations are at their frostiest in decades, with economic, technological, and strategic fronts all seeing heightened competition.
• Rare Earths as Leverage: China’s dominant grip on rare earths is a pressure point, but may have spurred faster Western decoupling and collaboration.
• Espionage and Security: The line between commercial opportunity and national security in Western policy towards China is blurring, especially in the UK.
• Space Race Resurgence: Both the U.S. and China are ramping up lunar ambitions, but with fundamentally different approaches—U.S. innovation leans on private-public partnerships, while China’s program is state-led and single-minded.
• Geopolitical Realignment: Both AI and space will remain battlegrounds, while Japan’s potential political shift could reshape regional alliances.

Suggested Listening Order

• [02:02] – Trade war escalation, rare earths explanation
• [19:13] – UK-China spy scandal and politics
• [32:08] – The new race to the moon: U.S. vs China
• [41:55] – Weekly predictions

For deeper insight into how China’s ambitions are shaping the global agenda, this episode is essential listening—rich with analysis, historical perspective, and lively debate.