China Decode: China’s Long Game in the Middle East

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway | March 17, 2026
Co-hosts: Alice Han & James Kynge | Guest: Dr. John Svekianakis (Chief Economist, Gulf Research Center)

Episode Overview

In this episode, "China’s Long Game in the Middle East," China Decode explores how China is strategically maneuvering as the Middle East faces renewed conflict, particularly in the wake of the Iran war. Co-hosts Alice Han and James Kynge speak with Dr. John Svekianakis to analyze China’s cautious engagement in the region, the shifting energy and diplomatic dynamics, and what it means for the future world order. The show also delves into the meteoric rise of Chinese universities in global rankings and discusses Chinese automaker BYD’s ambitions to enter Formula One racing. Predictions for the coming weeks cap off a data-driven, nuanced discussion.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Economic & Strategic Impact of the Iran War on China ([02:05]–[20:34])

US Strategic Re-orientation

• With escalating conflict in Iran, the US is redeploying military assets from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, opening a potential strategic vacuum in Asia.
• James: “Would you say that this war risks pulling the US back into the Middle East just as it was trying to pivot towards Asia?” ([03:36])

China’s Cautious Approach

• China is “playing a long game” in the Middle East, focused on safeguarding its vast commercial interests rather than direct military intervention.
• Dr. Svekianakis:
  "I don't see any true gains that the Chinese can have by getting involved in the Middle East beyond commercial interests... for the Chinese to get involved militarily, I find a lot of dangers and very few gains." ([05:20])
• China relies on stable oil flows (38% of its imported oil passes through the Straits of Hormuz) but prefers a hands-off role, leveraging strong commercial ties—especially with Iran.
• Alice: “Is it true that China is getting preferential treatment [in oil passage]?”
  Dr. Svekianakis: "So far the Chinese are getting preferential treatment. Yet what we don't know is the exact amount of vessels… there isn't a lot of transparency." ([09:25])

Potential for Escalation & Regional War

• If the conflict widens, China’s massive investments ($300B over 20 years in the region) could be put at risk, but Dr. Svekianakis suggests China will continue to prioritize cautious observation and commercial engagement over direct involvement.
• Dr. Svekianakis:
  "If we do see a regional war, then the Chinese could take a different position. But again, I do believe that the Chinese will stay out of it and they will prefer to be observers, commercial participants…" ([13:37])

Geopolitical Outcomes

• A post-war Middle East will likely be more fragmented, unstable, and dominated by US and Israeli security interests, posing new risks for all external parties, including China.
• Dr. Svekianakis:
  "This will be a very different Middle East... more unstable, fragmented, smaller states… Israel having the military upper hand with the US providing security measures." ([16:24])
• China’s concern: securing ROI on construction and commercial projects, ensuring workers aren’t left unpaid—and remaining as free of entanglement as possible.

US Distraction = Opportunity for China?

• James: “Could it possibly be that as the US attention is diverted... China sees its moment to make a move on Taiwan?”
• Dr. Svekianakis:
  "They are moving a lot of [US] hardware... eventually China would come out more of a winner than a loser from all of this." ([19:41])

2. The Rise of Chinese Universities in Global Research Rankings ([24:00]–[36:26])

Global Rankings Disruption

• Chinese universities are rapidly climbing global research rankings, in some indexes occupying 8 out of the top 10 spots and 19 of the top 25 (per the CWTS Leiden ranking).
• Alice: “Some experts say this signals a real shift In Global Research Power, others argue the rankings reward quantity over quality.” ([24:00])

Measurement Controversies

• Rankings like QS consider broad factors (reputation, teaching quality, internationalization), while others (Leiden) focus on bibliometrics—potentially inflating scores via sheer publication volume.
• James:
  “My final point is… this is very much a strategy of the Chinese Communist Party… a big national push to push Chinese universities to the top rank.” ([25:02])
• The internationalization metric is a sticking point, as Chinese universities often remain insular with limited foreign student integration.

Quality vs. Quantity Debate

• China leads in research output, especially in AI and STEM, but there are concerns about research integrity and innovation.
• James:
  “The Financial Times wrote… about Chinese universities… about 3,000 retractions of Chinese-authored papers in 2024 compared with 177 for US authors.” ([29:49])
• The prevalence of "paper mills" and research retractions raise questions about quality control.

Reverse Brain Drain

• Notable trend: US-educated Chinese professors (including prominent scientists) returning to China—pointing to increasing competitiveness of Chinese academia.

Limits to Internationalization

• Most foreigners in Chinese universities are grouped into special "foreigner streams" rather than integrated with domestic students.

• James:
  “That isn't real internationalization, that is fake internationalization. Chinese universities really do have a long way to go to genuinely internationalize.” ([34:59])

• Government is reinforcing Mandarin as the universal language of instruction, especially among minority groups—a move some in the West see as controversial ([36:26]).

3. BYD’s Ambition to Enter Formula One & China’s Evolving Auto Industry ([39:56]–[48:37])

BYD Eyes Formula One

• BYD, China’s EV giant, is exploring motorsport as a branding exercise—potentially entering prestigious series like Formula One and Le Mans.
• James:
  “BYD’s Yangwang U9 Extreme set a world production car speed record… quicker by quite a long way than any modern Formula One car… If we're just talking about pure speed, this BYD car could lick any of the Formula 1 cars that are currently out there.” ([40:55])

F1 Mania in China

• F1 is exploding in popularity in China, with major boosts in tourism and fandom, especially among young women.
• Alice:
  “230,000 spectators at the Shanghai F1 Grand Prix… hotel reservations in Shanghai rose 96% year on year." ([42:51])
• Chinese government appears supportive, hoping to spur consumption and global recognition for domestic automakers.

Chinese Brands Going Upmarket

• BYD and other brands like Geely and Nio are moving from mass market to luxury, using motorsport as a springboard for branding and innovation.

4. Weekly Predictions ([48:37]–[52:05])

James’s Prediction: AI Emotional Companions Boom

• AI companions (like Xiao Ice) will be a billion-dollar market in China in 2026, up from $530M in 2025.
• James:
  "This year the market for Chinese AI emotional companions will grow to about US$1 billion…" ([48:37])
• Monetized via subscriptions; market growth accelerated by user adoption.

Alice’s Prediction: Trump China Trip Delay

• Alice predicts a delay in President Trump’s upcoming China visit due to continued US distraction in the Middle East.
• Alice:
  “I get a spidey sense… we might have a delay of the Trump visit to China… the Americans are still very much distracted by… what is happening in a fractured Middle East.” ([49:52])

Memorable Quotes

• Dr. Svekianakis:
  “When Western companies are not so forthcoming to build things, the Chinese are always there to build things. So that tells a lot about China's presence in the Middle East.” ([13:37])

• Alice Han:
  “There’s a broader question… Can China ever become at the US or European level of international university… for cultural reasons? I’m deeply suspicious of that.” ([33:00])

• James Kynge:
  “My sense is… very clearly it is real. China is leaping up the rankings. The academic output of Chinese academics is going through the roof.” ([29:49])

• James Kynge (on F1):
  “Technology is a font of many conversations in China… the level of interest in this type of thing is sky high.” ([45:32])

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• China and the Iran War: Analysis of long-term strategy ([03:36]–[19:41])
• Discussion on Chinese Universities’ rise in global research rankings ([24:00]–[36:26])
• BYD, Formula One, and broader auto industry trends ([39:56]–[48:37])
• Weekly predictions (AI companions & US-China relations) ([48:37]–[52:05])

Episode Tone & Style

The discussion is engaged, data-driven, and at times skeptical—particularly regarding hype around Chinese innovation and soft power. Alice’s and James's dialogue is collegial and inquisitive, blending real-world data, personal anecdotes, and pointed questions for their expert guest.

Summary

This episode of China Decode provides a multifaceted look at China’s global ambitions amid sweeping geopolitical shifts, highlighting China’s tactical patience in the Middle East, new academic superpower status, and bold moves in global branding (from research to racing). Their analysis probes beneath headlines, offering insights for listeners keen on China’s evolving global role in business, academia, and culture.