China Decode: Did the U.S. Push Its Allies Closer to China?

Summary

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The Prof G Pod – China Decode: Did the U.S. Push Its Allies Closer to China?

Date: January 20, 2026
Hosts: Alice Han & James King
Podcast Network: Vox Media Podcast Network

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Episode Overview

This episode of China Decode dives into shifting global alliances as the U.S.–China rivalry intensifies. Alice Han and James King analyze whether recent American foreign policies have inadvertently pushed key allies—Canada, the UK, and the EU—closer to China, examine China's increasingly lopsided economy, and discuss a viral app that spotlights a growing loneliness epidemic in China’s younger generation. The hosts also offer predictions on the rapidly evolving AI chip wars and Chinese tech’s global ambitions.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Allies Move Closer to China (00:49 – 15:26)

Context:

• Trump administration’s aggressive trade policy, especially on electric vehicles (EVs), Greenland, and Venezuela, is driving allies to recalibrate their China strategy.
• Canada, UK, and the EU taking softened or diversified approaches in economic and diplomatic engagement with China.

Notable Developments:

• Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s high-profile Beijing visit, significant trade negotiations, and a tariff cut impacting EVs.
• UK: PM Keir Starmer’s upcoming visit to Beijing—the first by a UK leader since 2018—and the controversial plan for a Chinese “mega embassy” in central London.
• EU: Easing actions towards China on EV tariffs; collaborative testing of Chinese C919 jets.

Analysis:

• James King (02:56):

  “We’ve gone through the looking glass these days…so much is in flux in the international order…it’s a tumble dryer of international affairs.”

• China is using these openings to exert “propaganda capital” and push the narrative of “strategic autonomy” away from the U.S.
• Chinese official media and academics are vocal in urging Western allies not to “backslide” after making overtures to China.
• Alice Han (07:49):

  “Economic rationale wins at the end of the day, even although China is seen as a national security threat. There's a lot of money that's on the table and certainly there are winners and losers in Canada.”

• Trump’s reaction to Canada-China deals was notably muted, raising speculation about possible tactical concessions.

Winners & Losers:

• Winners: Canadian agriculture sectors (canola, lobster, crab), EU Airbus aircraft (now outselling Boeing in China), some European manufacturers.
• Losers: Canadian and European automakers, especially with easing of Chinese EV import controls.

Broader View:

• Western allies are tactically engaging China to extract economic benefits without fully realigning away from the U.S.
• Trump’s threatened tariffs could trigger an EU-U.S. trade conflict reminiscent of prior U.S.-China disputes.

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2. China’s Lopsided Economic Growth (18:43 – 29:54)

Data Deep Dive:

• High Tech Manufacturing: Output grew 9.4% year-over-year.
• Retail Sales: Up only 3.7%.
• Exports: Accounted for a third of GDP—highest since 1997.
• Private Investment: Down 6.4%.
• Property Investment: Fell by 17.2%.
• Disposable Income: Up 5% to $6,070 USD (per capita).

Analysis:

• James King (19:26):

  “There is one strength in the Chinese economy and several weaknesses…China is a high tech manufacturing powerhouse…yet its economy is so poor at directing the fruits of this advancement to its people…”

• Alice Han (21:14):

  “I think we're seeing a China in 2025 that is heavily imbalanced and skewed towards supporting its exports rather than finding productive areas to invest.”

• Economic policy continues fixing targets (e.g., 5% GDP growth) and offering export and fixed asset investment support, but fails to stimulate household spending.
• Real estate collapse is a “macro risk,” undermining household wealth and consumer confidence.

Political & Macro Consequences:

• Lack of meaningful wage growth prevents a shift toward a consumption-led economy.
• There is untapped potential in rural migration and urbanization, but little policy movement.

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3. The Loneliness Epidemic and “Demomo” App (33:05 – 41:40)

Viral Phenomenon:

• The “Demomo” (previously “Are you dead?”) app requires solo users to check in every 48 hours—or alerts emergency contacts.
• Speaks to rising isolation: projected 200 million one-person Chinese households by 2030.

Social Context:

• Sharp rise in young adults living alone; most are only children, contributing to familial stress.
• “Tang Ping” (lying flat): a popular, openly nihilistic approach among China’s younger generation.
• Alice Han (35:34):

  “A lot of them tend to be more plugged into the digital matrix than in everyday life…They don’t really feel like there’s a sense of economic momentum and growth and they don’t have siblings.”

• Plummeting marriage and fertility rates, with “unmarried people in China between the ages of 20 and 49 reached 134 million in 2020.”
• Elderly often left isolated as primary caregivers themselves age; state safety nets for aging population are underdeveloped.

Societal Shifts:

• Growing interest in Buddhism; rise of digital communities as a substitute for familial/communal bonds.
• Hosts note possible countercultural trends seeking in-person connection (nature outings, group activities).

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4. Predictions & The China–U.S. Chip Wars (41:41 – 44:18)

Nvidia and China:

• The U.S. has relented on export restrictions for Nvidia’s H200 chips to China, but Beijing won’t permit their import.
• James King’s Prediction (41:41):

  “Nvidia's market share for AI processors in China will crater this year...could fall to below 20%...from 66% in 2024. This is a massive, massive shift.”

• Chinese manufacturers (Huawei, Cambricon, etc.) are catching up in AI chips. China will lean increasingly on self-developed technology.

The Next Generation of Chinese AI Tech:

• Alice Han’s Prediction (44:18):

  “We're in a next generation of global AI Chinese companies...headquartered in Singapore...seeking global reach and listings outside China.”

• U.S. tech giants like Meta may look to acquire these “desinicized” startups for their innovation and efficiency.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• James King (02:56):

  “We’ve gone through the looking glass…It’s hard to disentangle cause and effect in the tumble dryer of international affairs.”

• Alice Han (07:49):

  “Economic rationale wins at the end of the day, even although China is seen as a national security threat.”

• James King (19:26):

  “China is a high tech manufacturing powerhouse…yet its economy is so poor at directing the fruits of this advancement to its people.”

• Alice Han (35:34):

  “There’s a kind of moral vacuum and self-questioning about what is it all for?”

• James King (41:41):

  “Nvidia’s market share for AI processors in China will crater this year…could fall to below 20%.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Summary of China pulling U.S. allies closer (00:49–15:26)
• Dissection of China’s economic imbalance (18:43–29:54)
• The loneliness epidemic: Demomo app discussion (33:05–41:40)
• AI and chip wars predictions (41:41–44:18)

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Conclusion

This episode exposes the complex global chess game as Western economic imperatives increasingly conflict with security priorities. While the "great decoupling" has yet to happen, allies are hedging, and China is leveraging both opportunity and weakness at home and abroad. Domestically, China’s stunning industrial might masks growing inequality, economic fragility, and deep social challenges—as symbolized by its loneliness epidemic. In tech, the AI chip wars, once defined by U.S. export controls, are now as much about Chinese self-sufficiency and global ambitions.

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Listen Next

Follow for the next episode of China Decode or check out Prof G’s other segments on business, politics, and tech.

Transcript

[James King]

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[Alice Han]

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[Alice Han]

And like we all need more joy.

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[Alice Han]

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[James King]

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[Alice Han]

I think in a way, Trump's moves have probably pushed a lot of these countries, the Europeans, the Canadians, now maybe even the Brits to adopt a soft a trade policy towards China. There is has been an understanding of the last few years that China is an overcapacity and a national security problem. But at the end of the day, there's a lot of money on the table. Welcome to China Decode. I'm Alice Han.

[James King]

And I'm James King.

[Alice Han]

In today's episode of China Decode, we're discussing how China is pulling America's allies out of Washington's orbit. The problem with China's lopsided economy and a viral app that exposes China's loneliness epidemic. That's all coming up, but first let's do a quick check in with how the Chinese markets are starting the week. On Monday, the Shanghai A share index inched up 0.3%. The Hang Sengshare index fell 1.1%, dropping to a one week low on news of escalating trade tensions out of the U.S. pharma got hit the hardest with Hanzhou Pharmaceutical Co. Declining 4% and Wuxi Biologics 4.8%. All right, let's get right into it. As the U.S. china relationship grows more strained, Beijing is aggressively courting America's allies. Canada is working with Washington to cut tariffs on Chinese EVs from 100% in exchange for access to Chinese markets. European regulators are testing China's homegrown C919 jet. And Beijing is dangling trade and diplomatic incentives across the European Union. The big question is this smart diversification or a strategic realignment that weakens U.S. leverage? James A lot has been happening even in the last week. We've seen Carney's trip to Beijing. That's a pretty big deal. He got really high level long meetings. We also saw more recent moves of softening from the EU on China's trade, especially EVs and then we've also got Greenland is impacting EU US relations. How do you think about China's economic moves in the midst of all of these dynamics?

[James King]

Well, it really feels to me a little bit like we've gone through the looking glass these days. I must say. So much is in flux in the international order that it's hard to disentangle cause and effect. It's hard to know which is a move and which is a counter move. But in what I'm calling the tumble dryer of international fairs, I think a couple of big moves into China's orbit really stand out. The first was, as you've just mentioned, Alice, Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, going to China last week. And the other big move is the intended visit to China by the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the end of the month. Both of these countries are the staunchest and longest standing allies of the United States. And now we can see, certainly in the case of Canada, it's cozying up to China. And it was clear that China lost no opportunity to make propaganda capital out of this move at the expense of the United States. Let me just tell you a couple of things that the Chinese media was saying. The China Daily, which is an official Chinese newspaper, encouraged the Canadian government, Ottawa, to adopt what it called, quote, strategic autonomy from Washington. And the longer quote was if OT still chooses to subject its China policy to the will of Washington again in the future, it will only render its previous efforts to mend ties with Beijing in vain. So it was a very clear warning that the Canadian government should not backslide, having made this visit and expended all this political capital to cozy up to Xi Jinping, that it shouldn't backslide from this position in the future. Even more extraordinary comment came from a Chinese academic at Renmin University in Beijing. His name is Cui Shoujun. And he said that Canada must be feeling a lot of unease toward the US these days because, quote, if the US can claim Greenland, then it might lay claim to Canada. I mean, just sort of extraordinarily bold statements coming out of Beijing. I mean, just a reminder that this is an official newspaper, the China Daily and academics in China have US sort of semi official status. I mean, they're allowed to put their interpretation on things, but they're not allowed to stray too far from central government thinking in Beijing. So I do think these are really very interesting. Just before I come back to you, Alice, let me just go into Keir Starmer's visit at the End of the month. That is also going to be a really big moment in UK China relations if it goes ahead. This is because it will be the first visit by a UK leader to China since 2018, and because the visit is coming across, as it were, the issue of this Chinese mega embassy in London. In case listeners are not familiar with this, it's a very big story in the uk. The Chinese have a plan, and they want approval for the plan to build a huge embassy right in the center of London, so close to the city of London, the financial district, which is the heart of. Of London. And part of this embassy is supposed to go over the fiber optic cables that supply the city with all of its information and all of its data. And so protesters and campaigners against this move has said that this is an unacceptable security risk. In other words, China could either tap into the information or potentially even cut the cables. And so it is expected that this mega embassy will be approved. That's what my sources are telling me. So it may happen as soon as today or tomorrow or early this week. And after that, Keir Starmer will be allowed to go to Beijing to conduct his diplomacy there. So the move to Beijing from Keir Starmer comes after considerable capital has been expended. And I would be expecting the Chinese, when Starmer gets to Beijing, also to be coming out with statements about strategic autonomy away from the United States. So we are seeing, at least, at least in these two examples, a move from some of the US's staunchest allies toward China's sphere of influence. I'm not saying they're part of China's sphere of influence now, but we're seeing them inching toward China. I'd say that's my take anyway. What are you seeing at the moment, Alice?

[Alice Han]

Well, I think we first need to distinguish the EU dimension from the Canadian dimension. I'll start with Canada. It was interesting to me that less than a year ago, Carney campaigned on this concept partially that China was, quote, unquote, the biggest threat to Canada's security. In a way, he had to politically make that point in order to, I think, win the election, if you recall. And he was definitely a latecomer and a dark horse in terms of the Canadian election last year, but since then, I think this is very much in lockstep with what I saw in Australia a couple years back under Albanese, when he joined as Prime Minister of Australia. Bringing in the labor government to Australian politics is the fact that economic rationale wins at the end of the day, even although China is seen as a national security threat. There's a lot of money that's on the table and certainly there are winners and losers in Canada. The agricultural sector, I think, largely has been a winner. Automakers in Canada probably have been losers. China is going to drop substantial tariffs on Canadian canola meal, lobster, crab peas and lower tariffs on canola seed. That's a big win for a lot of ag makers in Canada. But at the same time, and I thought this was pretty considerable, I was surprised by this, Canada is going to slash 100% tariffs on EVs from China to Canada. That's about 49,000 per year. And that, I think, when we think about the broader landscape of China's EV export machine, is going to be a huge loss for Canadian auto. But I think this move is politically calculated. To your point, James Carney is unhappy with what is happening in Washington. And I think there is somewhat of a consensus amongst the European and the Canadians and maybe even the British, which you may be alluding to, James, that Washington's actions, maybe in Venezuela and certainly in more recently in Greenland, are not in alignment with those countries, the Europeans, the Canadians and the Brits views of the world order. So I think in a way, when we put Venezuela with Iran, with Greenland, I think since the start of the year, Trump's diplomatic scorecard is probably in the negative territory, which is probably what's provoking some of these recent moves. And then it comes to the European dimension, where I had been predicting this, but I was a little bit late to the game. I had thought last year that the price minimums would actually be developed as a framework. It's probably only started to kick into effect as of a week ago, January 12, when the European Commission said that they want to put a framework deal in place for price minimums for Chinese EVs, then that is, for Chinese automakers, that is considerable because China's biggest market for autos is the European market. And China is the EU's third largest trading partner for goods and services, after the US and UK. So for both countries, this is pretty considerable. China, I think, made about 10% of the EV market last year. That could rise significantly if we see more of a move to reduce the 45% tariffs, for instance, on Chinese EVs. I think in a way, Trump's moves have probably pushed a lot of these countries, the Europeans, the Canadians, now maybe even the Brits, to adopt a softer trade policy towards China. There is has been an understanding of the last few years that China is an over capacity and A national security problem. But at the end of the day, there's a lot of money on the table and a lot of vested interests in those countries that want to see business between the two countries. You know, we can go into the numbers, but that's sort of my broad brushstroke view of why these countries are moving, it seems, in lockstep. And everyone will be convening in Davos, as you know, they're all convening on this sleepy, snow capped town of Davos where I think a lot of drama will happen.

[James King]

Yeah, And I mean, Trump is going to be in Davos. And I must say, when Mark Carney was in Beijing making all these statements and as I, as I put it, cozying up to China, I expected Trump to come out with a considerable backlash. But so far, he seems to be quite accepting of Canada's overture to China. He was asked what he thought of the agreement.

[Ad/Promo Voice]

How do you see the deals?

[James King]

Canada and China have just signed trade.

[Alice Han]

Deals between the two partners.

[Ad/Promo Voice]

Well, it's okay. That's what he should be doing.

[James King]

I mean, it's a good thing for.

[Ad/Promo Voice]

Him to sign a trade deal.

[James King]

If you can get a deal with.

[Ad/Promo Voice]

China, you should do that.

[James King]

So so far it seems that Trump is moderating his response. But I would say that, you know, there is a risk for these allies of the United States. I'm talking about Canada, the UK and really the whole of Europe. There is a risk because the US Remains the most substantial economic and security partner of all of the countries in the West. And in the case of Canada, it's overwhelmingly so. Something like 74% of Canada's trade is with the U.S. and, you know, less than 10% with China and in the U.K. i mean, it's overwhelming. Our biggest investment and trade relationship, not to mention diplomatic and security relationship, is with the United States. So I think that, you know, there is a tightrope that these countries in the west are walking. They're trying to get the economic benefit of moving closer to China without annoying the United States so much that Washington creates a backlash against us. So it's a game of cat and mouse, I think, right now. And you know, the world is so complicated right now. It's gonna be interesting to see how this one plays out. I certainly couldn't call it, I would.

[Alice Han]

Agree with you, James. The expression, while the cats away, the mice will play. I'm thinking maybe the Canadians and the Europeans and the mice in this analogy, as long as the US Is subsidizing their national security and is Running a trade deficit with those two trading blocs, Canada and the eu, it's just a natural bedfellow for those two regions of the world. Whereas China, the opposite, is a national security threat and is running massive trade surpluses. So I think this is a tactical short term move in order to extract some short term gains rather than a strategic pivot. And certainly in the short term, some agricultural producers in Canada and the EU will benefit. Airbus, we haven't talked about will likely benefit as well. China's already considering purchasing more French European aircraft. And Airbus market share in China is already 55%, which just recently overtook US's Boeing's market share. So there are some winners and losers. But I think I broadly agree with you, James. This is a tactical move as opposed to a strategic one. But we'll see how Greenland blows up. Because if Trump's threat of tariffs do get put into place, the 10% that he's threatening on the European countries effective February 1st, we might be in for a broader EU US trade conflict in mirror image of what we saw last year between China and the U.S. yep.

[James King]

It'S really hard to overstate how exercised people are in Europe about Greenland. A lot of people, policymakers, just can't get why the US is being so aggressive on this point. You know, they feel that there's a pathway to Greenland, greater US influence on Greenland that takes a peaceful route, rather than talking about some kind of military overture.

[Alice Han]

Yeah, I mean, this might be a little bit facetious, but there probably is no better way to unify the Europeans than to hit the Greenland button, which we've seen the last few days. All right, we'll be back with more after a quick break. Stay with us.

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[Alice Han]

Welcome back. China's economy is sending mixed signals. Exports and high tech manufacturing are booming, according to the latest 2025 data. But lending is at its weakest level since 2018. Consumer confidence is soft and the property sector remains in deep, deep trouble as Beijing leans harder on technology, trade surpluses and even the digital yuan to power growth. The question is whether this imbalance is sustainable or a warning sign ahead of the March National People's Congress meeting. James, let's go right into it. The economic data from 2025 as a whole year and the Q4 data have just come out. I'm excited to get into the weeds with you. What's your hot take on the data?

[James King]

My hot take is that this data shows yet again what a highly lopsided economy China is. And I think there are two numbers that absolutely show this so clearly, that it's so stark. There is one strength in the Chinese economy and there is one, well, there are several weaknesses that lead to a particular weakness. The great strength is that China is a high tech manufacturing powerhouse that increasingly inspires awe around the world. And yet the weakness is that its economy is so poor at directing the fruits of this advancement to its people that the birth rate that we've seen in China last year has fallen to its lowest level since 1949. That's the communist revolution of 1949. So you know, we got these two amazing things going on. This hard charging technological superpower now which is a peer competitor of the US in technology, and an economy that can't even return the fruits of labor, as it were, to people so that they feel that they can have families and have as many kids as they like. So the two numbers that I'd like to mention are high tech manufacturing output that rose 9.4% last year. And the other number on the other side is retail sales which grew only 3.7%. So what you've got is high tech manufacturing growing at more than double the speed of the amount of money that people are spending on things to buy. And I think that really sums up the great contradiction of the Chinese economy. But you'll have your own view on this.

[Alice Han]

Alice, I agree with your first principle's view, which is that this is a deeply skewed, imbalanced economy. The data points that stood out to me so exports made up a third of Chinese GDP last year. That's the highest level since 1997. And growth capital formation, which is a more accurate measure, to my mind, of Chinese investment in the economy, rather than fixed asset investment, contributed just 15%, and that's the lowest since 1997 too. Ten years ago, those numbers would have been flipped. You would have seen an economy that was more driven by fixed asset investment rather than exports. But certainly, as we've discussed previously, James, the fact that they've had to crack down on fixed asset investment, on the real estate sector, on local government debt, has all contributed to the need to ramp up and juice up the export machine. And so I think we're seeing a China in 2025 that is heavily imbalanced and skewed towards supporting its exports rather than finding productive areas to invest. One last data point that I thought was pretty interesting was the fact that private investment, which is again a good indicator for the domestic confidence of investors and businessmen, private investment fell 6.4%. And this is in lockstep with households who in the latest PBOC data have increased their propensity to save rather than to spend. And again reinforces this point point that as long as this economy remains really imbalanced, they're going to have to use either fixed asset investment and or exports rather than domestic consumption to drive growth. They could easily fix this if they decided, and this is Michael Pettis's point, which I agree with, that they weren't going to do growth targets every year in the March National People's Congress, in the government work report. But the fact that they are wedded to these, say, 5% growth targets means that they need to invariably keep juicing the economy. And this brings me to the March NPC meeting, which should be held in the first week of March. My sources seem to tell me that it's going to be a 5% GDP target, so the same as last year, that the fiscal deficit will be at least 4%, if not higher. Now that is a historic high for Chinese fiscal balances. And every indication points to the direction of the central government taking more debt on its balance sheet sheet, which again, by global standards is pretty low at around 20%. So they have the fiscal space to do so. But that means invariably I think that there will continue to be support for the export sector, but I also think that there will be more support through some of these local bond programs for fixed asset investment. Because I think if I were in Beijing's seat right now and I looked at the economic data in both Q4, but also 2025 as a whole, I'd be very worried about the huge fixed asset investment Slump, slump and worried about the property investment slump, which we also have talked about. Property investment dropped 17.2%. Again, that's double digit negative territory which has been in place I think over the last six years. This is something that they haven't really addressed because politically I think they like the fact that they've succeeded in deflating the real estate asset bubble. But I remember writing a piece five years ago saying that this is not a financial risk, but it's a macro risk. Because as soon as property sector, which is about a quarter of GDP historically, if not more, stays at depressed levels, that's going to have massive knock on effects for household balance sheets, for spending, for consumer and business confidence. So I would expect that they, going into the March NPC will probably do a bit more to support the real estate sector and that will probably look in the form of reducing mortgage rates which again are still historically very low, reducing some of the constraints to first home buyers as well, certain cities as well. And then more broadly I think probably introducing reintroducing some of that whitelist financing program to effectively get banks to lend to developers so that they can finish their properties that have been bought but not yet sold. So when I put it all together, it's important to remember that in spite of China's economic largesse, there's still a lot of structural problems. And it's hard for me to see that the government is really adequately dealing with a solution in mind. But I will end with my takeaway from the cewc. So, you know, I don't think we've talked about this, the Central Economic Work Conference that convened at the end of December, which is oftentimes a very good signal for what is going to happen in the March government work report for the subsequent year, they were basically pointing towards more support for domestic consumption. So there was a reintroduction or rather an extension of the subsidy program to some extent for EVs and for other durable goods. Now there probably will be some subsidy program for services is my expectation in March. But this is again too little too late because ultimately they will keep having to juice both manufacturing and I think fixed asset investment next year.

[James King]

Yeah, I think it all boils down to a very simple equation. If China cannot right its lopsided economy, then sooner or later, and we're probably talking about later, several years in the future, this economy will crash. And the solution to the problem is simply to return more of the fruits of China's advancement to its people in terms of per capita disposable incomes. Last year the average in China was US$6,070, that was up just 5%. So what you're seeing is a lot of resources going into gunning the high tech sector of the economy, making China China the manufacturing superstar in the world, but at the expense of returning more of the earnings to ordinary people, to workers white collar and blue collar. If China can't return more of the fruits of its advancement to those people, then they're not gonna have enough money to spend in order to buy the things that China makes. And China's gonna remain in this deflationary spiral going forward and the world is gonna have to continue buying incredibly cheap Chinese products and thereby boosting China's export performance at the expense of competitors all over the world. So, you know, I think a lot of economists really hope that China can do something to stimulate per capita disposable incomes in China, but my guess is that will not really happen in 2026.

[Alice Han]

Yeah, it's hard to see if real estate sector remains quite depressed because you know, at its peak it was about 70% of household wealth. So if about the knock on effects of that on household balance sheets, it's pretty considerable. But I have long held the view that until we see meaningful increases in wage growth, which I think is another way to look at your point about per capita disposable income, it's hard for me to see a meaningful boost in consumption. And thus far the Chinese government has what I call a supply side approach to boosting consumption and not a demand side approach because all they're really trying to do is subsidize the cost of goods and maybe even coming into March services. So. So I take your point. This is hard to see and it sounds a little bit like you were describing common prosperity, James, which has kind of died off as a subject, but I completely agree. I think that everyday Chinese need to capture more value in the economy in order for China to rebalance towards a consumer services based economy like Japan and the US. And I think what a lot of people don't realize, and this is a point that I hear time and time again when I'm in China talking to think tank people, people, is that there's a considerable population, several hundred million in rural China, whose per capital disposal income are significantly more depressed than their urban peers who could see significant upside if they get moved and urbanized into the tier one, tier two, tier three cities. So there's still a lot of upside, I think, but it will take intelligent policymakers to try to capture that. And I haven't yet seen signs, but we should definitely read the tea leaves of the March Government work report. Very very close and the five year plan which will be announced as well at the March NPC meeting. Alright, let's take one last quick break. Stay with us.

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[YourRichBFF (host)]

This week, I'm chatting with Jerry Lee, the career wizard and co founder of Wansulting, who left Google to help millions land their dream jobs. Jerry gets brutally honest about the career manager myths that are keeping you broke, why six figures may not be the flex it used to be and the exact three steps you need to take right now if you're dreading your job search in this spooky market. Plus, he's spilling the tea on the worst resumes he's ever seen, his biggest money lesson and why he's giving away free career resources to his 3.5 million followers when he could be charging for everything. Whether you're hoping to lock in that promotion, pivot to something new, or finally crack six figures, Jerry's breaking down the real strategies that actually work. Get ready for an unfiltered conversation about building the career and the bank account you actually want in 2026. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.com YourRichBFF.

[Alice Han]

Welcome back. A bleak new app is going viral in China, and it says a lot about the loneliness epidemic. Its original name was Are you dead? And the app asks users who live alone to check in every 48 or IT alerts an emergency contact. The name of the app has recently been changed to Demomo, which one of the app's founders explains comes from combining death with some nonsense syllables. With as many as 200 million one person households projected by 2030, its popularity is being seen less as a morbid humor and more as a signal of a growing loneliness and safety crisis among young people. James, let's get right into this. I was alerted to this through a couple of friends in China, so it's a kind of comic macabre element to what I think is a real problem in China, which is the loneliness problem and the aging problem.

[James King]

Yeah, no, I mean, I just think it's so stark that more than the entire population of Japan in China are people living alone. You know, people between the ages of 20 and 49 living alone, not having very much, much social contact. A lot of their contact with other people comes through these apps. We all know what it's like. I mean, I suppose we've all sat at home and doom scrolled. I've been ill last week, so I was doom scrolling quite a bit sitting at home. And I tell you, your mental health really gets affected by that, you know, so my heart goes out to these young people in China. You know, they're often alone at home or working in these jobs, which don't remunerate very well. We've just been talking about the weakness, weakness of consumer demand linked to the fact that people's salaries are quite low. And then when people do go to the office, they're often very long hours in regimented jobs. And I think this is part of the reason why we're seeing the Chinese birth rate now fall to its lowest level since 1949, when the Chinese Communist Revolution took place. I mean. I mean, China has a whole slew of social problems. And I did spend a little bit of time reading online some of the testimonies of young people being affected by this loneliness epidemic. And it is honestly very sad. You must have seen quite a lot of these yourself, Alice.

[Alice Han]

Yeah, I have noticed this in the last five, six years that I've been traveling to China. The way in which everyday young people live, I think, is quite isolating. A lot of them tend to be more plugged into the digital matrix than in everyday life. And a lot of them are only children as well. My cousins are all only children. And as a result, unsurprisingly, you've got this dimension of the Tang Ping, which is to lie flat and have this kind of nihilistic worldview. You know, what is the point of working or striving or struggling or doing well in your Kokou exam and going into a Tier one university? I think this is all part parcel of the fact that in China, young people don't really feel like there's a sense of economic momentum and growth and they don't have siblings. And at some point, 20 years down the line, they're going to have to be responsible for their aging grandparents as the single caregiver, really. And then you add to this the other dimension which we also discussed, declining marriage rates. So the number of unmarried people in China between the ages of 20 and 49 reached 134 million in 2020. That's. That's bigger than the entire Japanese population. And over the last decade, marriage registrations have been cut about 50%, so in half. Effectively, this is, again, I think, feeding into this single, lonely state of a lot of Chinese youths. And then on the older end of the scale, you hear a lot of stories about elderly Chinese who get abandoned by their children or their grandchildren. Their spouses have died, and they're effectively single and alone. And so I think this app really speaks to a pressing need societally amongst Chinese, everyday Chinese, to feel like they matter and that their life counts. It's interesting to see how China has evolved over the last call. It Four decades, the first two of which was about aligning towards a capitalist regime. The next decade was about high speed growth and I think sense that there is a kind of moral vacuum and a self questioning about what is it all for. Some people, in the case of my parents for instance, and a lot of their peers go towards religion. Buddhism is on the rise. We have to look into the numbers. But just anecdotally, almost everyone I know, their parents are now Buddhists, overnight over the last decade. And then some of them go towards the digital ecosystem, the digital life. And as a result I think we end up with a society in China that is actually more isolated than it has ever been. And remember this is a very family driven society. If you go back to Confucian thought and Confucian writings, the society is based around family. But what happens when the family only has one child and then it's one middle aged person taking care of elderly people? I think that is the society that we're increasingly confronting in China. But James, have you actually come across across people in China who have felt lonely? The reason I, I feel reluctant to ask this question somewhat is that unlike in the west where I think it's more open as a discussion the loneliness epidemic to talk about being lonely. This is a Chinese expression like it's not really a, it's not really a phrase that you hear a lot in China. And so to what extent are people being self reflective or acknowledging that they are lonely? Have you come across.

[James King]

Yeah, I mean when you were talking there, I was thinking of a close friend I have in China who has turned towards Buddhism and she's been living alone, I guess for at least 25 years now. And you know, her life derives meaning from the Buddhist faith that she's adopted. And she travels to places in Qinghai and Tibet where they have a sect of Buddhism over there, Tibetan Lama's Buddhism, and she gets a great deal of, of meaning from those experiences. But she is, I think, lonely. And she has said that to me before and there's a whole nexus of rather personal pressures that she feels in her life. I'm not saying this is peculiar to China, you can see it all over London as well. But it is a human condition I think that we are seeing more and more of in China right now.

[Alice Han]

And then we also haven't discussed the declining fertility rate aspect of this as well. You already mentioned that, you know, China's childbirth rate is at its lowest since 1998, 1949. I believe when I think about the next generation, that is also going to have an impact on who takes care of these older women and men who decide not to get married and have children. Is it going to be the state? That is a big question mark because, you know, the pension scheme is not as established as it is, say, in Japan or even in the US So that is going to be a big political, economic question, I think, for the Chinese government moving forward. Because thus far, any attempts to increase fertility has been universally, I think, problematic across all countries. I don't see any real instance in which the government has been successful globally in really boosting and stimulating the fertility rate. But I think this is something that we should definitely track because I get the sense every time I go to China that more and more people are interested in, you know, being online, being on their phones, rather than being in community. And I'm hoping that there is going to be a countercultural movement towards that. I'm already seeing some signs that people want to do community trips out in nature, for instance. But this is a country that I think historically has been very communal. And to move towards this kind of unitary ecosystem where people are more plugged in online than with each other, I think is going to be a new normal for the Chinese society. All right, James, this is prediction time, one of my favorite times. What is your prediction as you peer into the future this week?

[James King]

Well, I'm pivoting from our conversation completely this week. My prediction is about the chip wars. Last week, the US gave formal green light to Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China. That was lifting a previous ban imposed by the U.S. but Chinese officials, who have been speaking to media reporters on condition of anonymity, have said that the Nvidia H200 chips will not be permitted to enter China. So the US Gives the green light, China gives the red light. My prediction is that this game of cat and mouse will continue for most of this year. And I think it shows something fundamental about the chip wars between the US And China, and that is that China is catching up with the US in chip technology. In fact, in 2026, it's going to be a horrible year for Nvidia sales in the China market. That's because Chinese companies like Huawei Cambricon. More threads we've mentioned all of those in previous episodes are now producing chips that, if combined into superclusters, can compete with Nvidia Superclusters on performance. So to get down to brass tacks, my prediction is that Nvidia's market share for AI processors in China will crater this year they will fall, fall very, very sharply. I'm not exactly sure how big a fall we're talking about, but in 2024 they had 66% of the market. This year I reckon they could fall to below 20% of the market. So it's a very, very big call. I'm aware of that. But I think this is a massive, massive shift.

[Alice Han]

This is kind of naughty for me to ask a follow in prediction question. Do you think that pushes Jensen Huang to ask Trump please can I send them more lead chips? Blackwells leading edge, Blackwell chips. What do you think will be the change in calculus from Jensen and Trump in the midst of that?

[James King]

I think you're dead right about Jensen Huang. He will be asking the White House to sell Blackwells into China because Blackwells are so much more powerful than the H2 hundreds. Chinese buyers would definitely want to get hold of Blackwells. Whether the White House will exceed is another massive we'll just have to see. I'm not ready to call that one.

[Alice Han]

Yeah, I'm sympathetic to this view because there is an argument which I find quite convincing that part of the reason China is trying to restrict these AI processes from Nvidia isn't just to support domestic variants, but also to put pressure on Jensen to get them higher quality chips. I think that that's quite conceivable and it might actually happen in 2026. So my prediction is somewhat chip tangential in the sense that it is about AI. We just saw Meta purchased one of agentic AI companies Manus and that company moved to Singapore over a year ago. I think we're in a next generation of global AI Chinese companies that are crucially going to move out of China, headquartered in say Singapore and then have more of a global footprint. Some of them may decide to exit through US markets through private sales or through public listings. But I sense that these new generation of AI tech companies, AI native tech companies are going to be looking at what didn't work for Baba and Tencent, mainly that they stayed Chinese tech companies and go well, we need to find a way, like bytedance did to desynasize move out of the Chinese market so that we have even more global reach and global footprint. That is my prediction. So we'll probably see more companies move to Singapore. More discussion of acquisitions from some of the big US tech companies buying these Chinese AI companies because as we've talked about, these AI companies in China are very, very innovative, cheap, energy efficient. So there's a comparative advantage for say a Meta or a Google to purchase them. That is my hot take for 2026. All right, that's all for this episode. Thank you for listening to China Decode. This is a production of Prof. G Media. Our producers are David Toledo, Eric Janikis, and Ness Smith, Sarah Davidoff. Thank you to Katherine Dillon, Drew Burrows, Billy Bennett, Dan Shalan, William Flynn, Jesse Millwood, Gil Espinoza, James Patton, and Isabella Kinsel for production help every week. Make sure to follow us wherever you get your podcast so you don't miss an episode. Talk to you again next week.