The Prof G Pod – China Decode: Did the U.S. Push Its Allies Closer to China?

Date: January 20, 2026
Hosts: Alice Han & James King
Podcast Network: Vox Media Podcast Network

Episode Overview

This episode of China Decode dives into shifting global alliances as the U.S.–China rivalry intensifies. Alice Han and James King analyze whether recent American foreign policies have inadvertently pushed key allies—Canada, the UK, and the EU—closer to China, examine China's increasingly lopsided economy, and discuss a viral app that spotlights a growing loneliness epidemic in China’s younger generation. The hosts also offer predictions on the rapidly evolving AI chip wars and Chinese tech’s global ambitions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Allies Move Closer to China (00:49 – 15:26)

Context:

• Trump administration’s aggressive trade policy, especially on electric vehicles (EVs), Greenland, and Venezuela, is driving allies to recalibrate their China strategy.
• Canada, UK, and the EU taking softened or diversified approaches in economic and diplomatic engagement with China.

Notable Developments:

• Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s high-profile Beijing visit, significant trade negotiations, and a tariff cut impacting EVs.
• UK: PM Keir Starmer’s upcoming visit to Beijing—the first by a UK leader since 2018—and the controversial plan for a Chinese “mega embassy” in central London.
• EU: Easing actions towards China on EV tariffs; collaborative testing of Chinese C919 jets.

Analysis:

• James King (02:56):

  “We’ve gone through the looking glass these days…so much is in flux in the international order…it’s a tumble dryer of international affairs.”

• China is using these openings to exert “propaganda capital” and push the narrative of “strategic autonomy” away from the U.S.
• Chinese official media and academics are vocal in urging Western allies not to “backslide” after making overtures to China.
• Alice Han (07:49):

  “Economic rationale wins at the end of the day, even although China is seen as a national security threat. There's a lot of money that's on the table and certainly there are winners and losers in Canada.”

• Trump’s reaction to Canada-China deals was notably muted, raising speculation about possible tactical concessions.

Winners & Losers:

• Winners: Canadian agriculture sectors (canola, lobster, crab), EU Airbus aircraft (now outselling Boeing in China), some European manufacturers.
• Losers: Canadian and European automakers, especially with easing of Chinese EV import controls.

Broader View:

• Western allies are tactically engaging China to extract economic benefits without fully realigning away from the U.S.
• Trump’s threatened tariffs could trigger an EU-U.S. trade conflict reminiscent of prior U.S.-China disputes.

2. China’s Lopsided Economic Growth (18:43 – 29:54)

Data Deep Dive:

• High Tech Manufacturing: Output grew 9.4% year-over-year.
• Retail Sales: Up only 3.7%.
• Exports: Accounted for a third of GDP—highest since 1997.
• Private Investment: Down 6.4%.
• Property Investment: Fell by 17.2%.
• Disposable Income: Up 5% to $6,070 USD (per capita).

Analysis:

• James King (19:26):

  “There is one strength in the Chinese economy and several weaknesses…China is a high tech manufacturing powerhouse…yet its economy is so poor at directing the fruits of this advancement to its people…”

• Alice Han (21:14):

  “I think we're seeing a China in 2025 that is heavily imbalanced and skewed towards supporting its exports rather than finding productive areas to invest.”

• Economic policy continues fixing targets (e.g., 5% GDP growth) and offering export and fixed asset investment support, but fails to stimulate household spending.
• Real estate collapse is a “macro risk,” undermining household wealth and consumer confidence.

Political & Macro Consequences:

• Lack of meaningful wage growth prevents a shift toward a consumption-led economy.
• There is untapped potential in rural migration and urbanization, but little policy movement.

3. The Loneliness Epidemic and “Demomo” App (33:05 – 41:40)

Viral Phenomenon:

• The “Demomo” (previously “Are you dead?”) app requires solo users to check in every 48 hours—or alerts emergency contacts.
• Speaks to rising isolation: projected 200 million one-person Chinese households by 2030.

Social Context:

• Sharp rise in young adults living alone; most are only children, contributing to familial stress.
• “Tang Ping” (lying flat): a popular, openly nihilistic approach among China’s younger generation.
• Alice Han (35:34):

  “A lot of them tend to be more plugged into the digital matrix than in everyday life…They don’t really feel like there’s a sense of economic momentum and growth and they don’t have siblings.”

• Plummeting marriage and fertility rates, with “unmarried people in China between the ages of 20 and 49 reached 134 million in 2020.”
• Elderly often left isolated as primary caregivers themselves age; state safety nets for aging population are underdeveloped.

Societal Shifts:

• Growing interest in Buddhism; rise of digital communities as a substitute for familial/communal bonds.
• Hosts note possible countercultural trends seeking in-person connection (nature outings, group activities).

4. Predictions & The China–U.S. Chip Wars (41:41 – 44:18)

Nvidia and China:

• The U.S. has relented on export restrictions for Nvidia’s H200 chips to China, but Beijing won’t permit their import.
• James King’s Prediction (41:41):

  “Nvidia's market share for AI processors in China will crater this year...could fall to below 20%...from 66% in 2024. This is a massive, massive shift.”

• Chinese manufacturers (Huawei, Cambricon, etc.) are catching up in AI chips. China will lean increasingly on self-developed technology.

The Next Generation of Chinese AI Tech:

• Alice Han’s Prediction (44:18):

  “We're in a next generation of global AI Chinese companies...headquartered in Singapore...seeking global reach and listings outside China.”

• U.S. tech giants like Meta may look to acquire these “desinicized” startups for their innovation and efficiency.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• James King (02:56):

  “We’ve gone through the looking glass…It’s hard to disentangle cause and effect in the tumble dryer of international affairs.”

• Alice Han (07:49):

  “Economic rationale wins at the end of the day, even although China is seen as a national security threat.”

• James King (19:26):

  “China is a high tech manufacturing powerhouse…yet its economy is so poor at directing the fruits of this advancement to its people.”

• Alice Han (35:34):

  “There’s a kind of moral vacuum and self-questioning about what is it all for?”

• James King (41:41):

  “Nvidia’s market share for AI processors in China will crater this year…could fall to below 20%.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Summary of China pulling U.S. allies closer (00:49–15:26)
• Dissection of China’s economic imbalance (18:43–29:54)
• The loneliness epidemic: Demomo app discussion (33:05–41:40)
• AI and chip wars predictions (41:41–44:18)

Conclusion

This episode exposes the complex global chess game as Western economic imperatives increasingly conflict with security priorities. While the "great decoupling" has yet to happen, allies are hedging, and China is leveraging both opportunity and weakness at home and abroad. Domestically, China’s stunning industrial might masks growing inequality, economic fragility, and deep social challenges—as symbolized by its loneliness epidemic. In tech, the AI chip wars, once defined by U.S. export controls, are now as much about Chinese self-sufficiency and global ambitions.

Listen Next

Follow for the next episode of China Decode or check out Prof G’s other segments on business, politics, and tech.