The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

China Decode: Inside China’s Economic Slowdown — and the Gig Workers Keeping It Moving

Date: November 25, 2025
Hosts: Alice Han & James Kynge (Vox Media Podcast Network)
Episode Theme:
A deep dive into China's current economic slowdown, its global implications, the paradox of China's climate efforts, and a revealing look at the realities facing its vast gig workforce.

Episode Overview

This episode of China Decode unpacks three major themes shaping modern China:

• The sharp downturn in China's economic growth, especially the collapse in fixed asset investment.
• The dual nature of China's role in global climate change — as both a leader in renewables and the world's top emitter.
• The rise of gig work in China, spotlighted by the experiences of a Beijing delivery driver turned best-selling author.

James and Alice bring rich context, nuanced analysis, and candid perspectives on what these trends mean for China and the world.

1. China’s Economic Slowdown: End of the Growth Miracle?

Key Points:

• Sharp Downturn in Growth Drivers:
  • Fixed asset investment, historically the backbone of China's growth, has experienced its steepest drop in over 40 years.
    • “What we're seeing now is basically the biggest growth driver that China's had for around four decades is now falling off a cliff. And so that raises the fundamental question, is the China growth miracle over?” — James Kynge [01:49]
• Underlying Data:
  • Exports, industrial output and consumer demand are sluggish.
  • Real estate investment fell 14.7% YoY; private sector investment dropped by 4.5% YoY from Jan-Oct.
  • Manufacturing investment, previously a buffer after real estate’s decline, now decelerating.
• Possible Silver Linings:
  • Small signs of reflation: CPI ticked up 0.2% YoY in October.
  • PPI deflation appears to be bottoming out.
• Big Picture Implications:
  • China has contributed over 30% of global GDP growth since 2015 versus 9.4% from the US.
  • The hosts disagree slightly on severity:
    • James believes the downturn signals "a reordering of the Chinese growth model," not an impending crisis.
      • “This does not spell China's economic crisis. This is a signal that China is making progress in reordering its economy from a vastly bloated, overcapacity ridden economy… into a more streamlined, more profitable economy.” — James Kynge [09:09]
    • Alice is more skeptical, predicting that "rebalancing is a cha cha — one step forward, two steps back," and suspects that fixed asset investment will continue to be relied upon to meet annual growth targets.
• Comparative Analysis:
  • Global benchmarks: In most economies, consumption is 74–75% of GDP; in China, it's just 53%, while investment is a huge 43% (vs. 24–26% globally).
  • Persistent over-reliance on investment means any shift to a “balanced” growth model is likely to be temporary, especially if the government sticks to its ~5% annual growth targets.

Notable Quote:
“I think ultimately because growth has been so strong this year and because deflation has been I think one of the top two issues in the economy, they've had the firepower policy-wise to go forward on this anti-involution campaign… but I think that this rebalancing will be somewhat short-lived.” — Alice Han [11:50]

Timestamp Highlights:

• Economic stats and context: [02:13]–[07:45]
• Fixed asset investment breakdown: [07:45]–[09:09]
• Debating the path and prospects of China’s growth: [09:10]–[17:15]

2. China’s Climate Conundrum: Saint or Sinner?

Key Points:

• Global Climate Dynamics:
  • With US leadership at the COP30 Conference faltering, eyes turn to China.
  • China has achieved progress in air quality, mass clean tech exports, and electric vehicle leadership.
  • Yet, it remains the world’s largest coal consumer and carbon emitter.
• Dual Role Analysis:
  • James describes China as "both the world's biggest climate saint and the world's biggest climate sinner.” [22:32]
  • Green energy deployment data:
    • Wind power deployment: 2.2x US.
    • Solar deployment: 2.8x US.
    • Electricity from solar panels in China can now be as low as 2 US cents/kWh (one-fifth the cost from coal in US/UK).
  • Despite advances, coal dependency remains massive.
    • Fossil-fuel power generation rose 7.3% YoY in Oct; coal energy production is 9x the US'.
    • Underlying reasons: local government economics, poverty, political pressure to maintain energy security.
• Structural Obstacles:
  • Many polluting industries are not included in China’s emissions trading scheme.
  • Geographic and resource limitations ensure coal's resilience:
    • “If geography's destiny. The US benefits from having natural, plentiful reserves of gas and oil. China doesn't. So China has to rely on importing a lot of this dirty coal and burning it to generate electricity.” — Alice Han [28:09]

Notable Quotes:

• “There’s a big dichotomy… China is at the same time the world's biggest climate saint and the world's biggest climate sinner.” — James Kynge [22:32]
• “It does raise this urgent question of why, if you’ve got solar panels that can generate electricity much more cheaply than coal, why are [they] still polluting the atmosphere?” — James Kynge [26:15]

Timestamp Highlights:

• COP30/climate focus intro: [19:45]–[22:31]
• Climate leadership debate and stats: [22:32]–[26:15]
• The coal dilemma & local factors: [26:15]–[28:09]
• Geography and future of coal dependence: [28:09]–[29:00]

3. Gig Workers: The Human Cost of “Miracle” Growth

Key Points:

• Scale of the Gig Economy:
  • Over 200 million gig workers in China (40% of urban workforce); projected to double by 2036.
  • Many are migrant workers or displaced by industrial/farm decline, earning precarious, task-based wages.
• Personal Story — Hu Anyan:
  • Ex-motorcycle parcel delivery man whose memoir, “I Deliver Parcels in Beijing,” sold 2 million copies in China and recently published in English.
  • The book exposed harsh realities: grueling schedules, poor pay, psychological stress.
    • “I already felt my brain wasn't working well anymore. Mainly my reactions became slow and sluggish and my memory started to decline because of the long hours and overwork. Your emotional control declines significantly.” — Hu Anyan (quoted by Alice Han) [34:03]
• Social and Political Context:
  • The growth of gig work is seen as a reversal of the promises of China’s Communist revolution, creating a stark class divide.
    • “What we've got now in the shape of these gig workers is… the proletariat that… are eking a living sleeping underneath the big bridges… being unable to get their kids into schools, not being able to get access to healthcare and other social services, really living a very miserable life.” — James Kynge [31:24]
  • Wage stagnation and underemployment:
    • Average delivery worker’s wage: 30 RMB (about US$4) per hour.
    • Youth unemployment hovers near 19%; university graduate salaries have halved since 2019 due to labor oversupply and automation.
  • The gig economy’s rise and looming automation (drones, AI) create huge uncertainty on "where this ends."
  • Comparison to earlier environmental activism:
    • Social stories ("Under the Dome" documentary) can galvanize policy.
    • Could new labor narratives force Beijing to recognize the gig economy crisis as a political issue?
• Macro Anxiety:
  • Fears about what happens as more educated workers confront long-term unstable employment.
  • Doubts on whether policymakers “really understand” the structural nature of this challenge.

Notable Quotes:

• “This is the biggest impediment to the Chinese growth model that exists.” — James Kynge [37:28]
• “It makes me worried about the youth unemployment figure, which is now almost 19%... what happens when you have on the one side a highly educated workforce… and then on the other side, what happens in terms of an economy that is structurally displacing them.” — Alice Han [34:03]

Timestamp Highlights:

• Gig economy and Hu Anyan’s story: [29:59]–[34:03]
• Class divide and structural problems: [31:24]–[39:13]
• Historical lens and potential for political awakening: [39:13]–[39:59]

4. Predictions & Closing Thoughts

James Kynge’s Prediction:

• Services sector is “a relatively bright spot” and will account for over half of China’s total consumer spending next year, up from 45%.
  • [40:06]

Alice Han’s Prediction:

• Targets for GDP growth: China will likely aim for 5% growth in 2025, higher than IMF forecasts. Achieving that will require more infrastructure and manufacturing investment—potentially returning to old growth strategies.
  • [41:18]

Memorable Closing:

• “So that's a slightly more upbeat forecast to end what has been a fairly gloomy episode.” — James Kynge [41:05]

Selected Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• “What we're seeing now is basically the biggest growth driver that China's had for around four decades is now falling off a cliff. And so that raises the fundamental question, is the China growth miracle over?” — James Kynge [01:49]
• “Rebalancing is a cha cha because it's one step forward and two steps back.” — Alice Han [11:50]
• “China is at the same time the world’s biggest climate saint and the world’s biggest climate sinner.” — James Kynge [22:32]
• “He saw himself... as a delivery machine earning 30 RMB, that is US$4 an hour… mainly my reactions became slow and sluggish and my memory started to decline because of the long hours and overwork.” — Hu Anyan, as quoted by Alice Han [34:03]
• “Is it possible for China to just merrily go along on this course, or will there be a big kind of roadblock? Will there be a big hole in the road? At some point, people's dissatisfaction just boils over. I don't know.” — James Kynge [37:28]

Summary Table of Key Segments

| Segment | Topics Covered | Timestamps | |-------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------| | Markets & AI Bubble | Chinese market performance, AI investment cost comparison | 02:13–04:22 | | Economic Slowdown Analysis | Fixed asset investment fall, manufacturing & consumption trends | 04:22–17:15 | | Climate Leadership & Coal Dilemma | COP30 fallout, renewables vs. coal, energy security | 19:45–29:00 | | The Gig Economy & Social Impact | Gig worker realities, Hu Anyan’s memoir, class divide | 29:59–39:59 | | Predictions & Wrap-Up | Services sector, GDP targets, future risks | 40:00–41:50 |

Takeaway

China Decode offers a comprehensive, nuanced discussion on the country’s economic, environmental, and social crossroads. The episode balances macroeconomic trends with on-the-ground perspectives, showing both the scale and human stakes of China’s transformations. For listeners keen to understand China beyond headlines, this conversation is essential.