The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway — "China Decode: The U.S. Attack on Venezuela is All About China" Release Date: January 6, 2026
Hosts: Alice Han & James Kynge

Main Theme

In this episode of "China Decode," hosts Alice Han and James Kynge analyze the global repercussions of the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela—specifically, its impacts on China’s strategic posture, economic interests, and its broader competition with the United States. The episode also explores China overtaking Tesla in the electric vehicle (EV) market, and the country’s surging influence in luxury food exports.

Key Discussion Points

1. The U.S. Takeover in Venezuela: China in the Crosshairs

Segment Begins: 01:11

Background

• China-Venezuela Relations: Venezuela, while not on the level of Taiwan as a core interest, represents a vital strategic, energy, and diplomatic foothold for China in Latin America.
• Recent Events: The U.S., under Trump, orchestrated a military intervention that ousted Maduro and targeted Venezuela’s oil industry—hours after a Chinese envoy met with Maduro.

China's Dilemma

• China condemned the U.S. action as “deeply shocking” and a “flagrant use of force.”
• The critical question: Does Beijing escalate or “swallow the loss and play the long game”?
• The move is a “test case for pushing against US dominance in the Western Hemisphere.” — Alice Han (02:34)

Strategic Responses

• James Kynge’s Analysis (03:58):

  • “We will not see a military retaliation from China on Taiwan or in the South China Sea, at least not in the short term.”
  • China is likely to take a “wait-and-see” approach, hoping that the US’s renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere will shift attention away from China and Taiwan.

• Notable Quote:

  • “China is really waiting to see.” — James Kynge (06:25)
  • Analysis based on the new U.S. National Security Strategy, which now puts less emphasis on “great power competition” and downgrades language on Taiwan.

Geopolitical & Economic Impact

• Alice Han’s Summary (08:12, 11:03)

  • “Speak softly and carry a big stick”—China will tread carefully, remain open to trade détente, but ramp up military capabilities.
  • Venezuela represents more than just oil to China: it’s about outstanding debts (roughly $10 billion) and the effectiveness of China’s global lending model.

• China’s losses projected:

  • ~$10B in potentially unrecoverable loans.
  • $2B in oil sector investments at risk.

What to Watch

• A postponed or cancelled Trump/Xi meeting in April would signal deepening tensions (11:16-12:08).
• China will weigh whether the U.S. is de-prioritizing Taiwan in favor of its “backyard.”

2. China Overtakes Tesla: Turning Point in the Electric Vehicle Race

Segment Begins: 17:06

The News

• For the first time, BYD has surpassed Tesla as the world’s top electric vehicle seller.

Analysis

• James Kynge:

  • "One of the great corporate rivalries of our time—Coca Cola vs. Pepsi, Apple vs. Microsoft, McDonald’s vs. Burger King—except this time, it’s American versus Chinese high-tech champions." (17:45)
  • BYD’s global sales surged 28% (2025); Tesla’s fell 8.6%.
  • BYD is “steamrolling” into new markets with cars like the Dolphin, which are “almost half the cost of the Tesla Model 3.”

• Notable Quote:

  • “Tesla is being beaten by a cheaper car that looks kind of almost as good and is technologically either on a par with Tesla or even slightly better.” — James Kynge (19:55)

• Alice Han:

  • Notes BYD’s success is still “domestically driven”; Chinese market demand has driven growth, but global expansion faces challenges from foreign protectionism.
  • Points out new government policies: reduction in EV purchase tax exemptions could dampen domestic demand, while new subsidies for trade-ins may offset this.

Protectionism & Trade Tensions

• Alice Han on Potential Headwinds:

  • “I worry a little bit about how this will be perceived by foreign governments as an influx of cheap Chinese EVs...autos is a huge political issue, not just an economic issue for a lot of countries.” (21:53)

• James Kynge:

  • Skeptical whether the EU has the unity to respond with tough protectionism (24:31).
  • Highlights new BYD “flash charging” batteries that can charge a car in 5 minutes—an edge over Tesla.

• Critical Minerals as a Pressure Point:

  • China’s moves to control silver exports could impact Tesla & others, and may be used as a retaliatory lever in trade disputes (23:33).

3. China’s Ascendance in Luxury Food Exports

Segment Begins: 27:24

Overview

• China has quietly become a heavyweight producer and exporter of former luxury European delicacies—caviar, foie gras, truffles, macadamia nuts.

Analysis

• James Kynge:

  • “I never imagined that China would leap to the global forefront of luxury food...But nope, in this area too, it seems that China has risen to the forefront.” (28:05)
  • China now produces 43% of the world’s caviar, up from near zero in the late 1990s.

• Alice Han:

  • This is part of “Xi’s broader strategy to have on the one hand agricultural self-sufficiency, but also develop agricultural critical technologies that can be developed domestically but also potentially exported...” (29:50)
  • Describes personal observations of mushroom factories in Yunnan exporting to Europe, and that China is now “globally accepted” in some food ingredient markets—often without consumers realizing it.
  • Domestic nationalism may drive preference for “Made in China” luxury foods.

• Notable Quote:

  • "Apparently people in China don't like the taste of truffles. So it's a very easy sell to cultivate that domestically in Yunnan and then sell it to the rest of the world." — Alice Han (32:58)
  • “Whatever expensive fruit exists in the world, Yunnan will import it, research it, cultivate it, and bring down the price.” — Yunnan grower, quoted by James Kynge (33:27)

4. Predictions for 2026

Segment Begins: 35:02

• Alice Han:

  • Predicts a CNY (yuan) appreciation of at least 10% in 2026 (“ending at 6.8 to 6.9 by the end of the year”) if a dovish Fed chair like Kevin Hassett is appointed, narrowing the interest rate differential and impacting the US-China trade balance (35:10).

• James Kynge:

  • Predicts China “will swallow its pride, swallow its humiliation, suffer its losses with regard to Venezuela, and I think it will play the long game. And I think the Trump/Xi meeting in April will go ahead…” (36:48)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “For China, Venezuela isn't just an ideological ally. It is a significant energy supplier, a major debtor, a strategic foothold in Latin America, and a test case for pushing against US Dominance.” — Alice Han (02:34)
• “We will not see a military retaliation from China on Taiwan or in the South China Sea, at least not in the short term.” — James Kynge (03:58)
• “China is hopefully waiting to see the US redefine its geopolitical focus to its own backyard...” — James Kynge (06:54)
• “At the risk of being contrarian, BYD may have peaked, and some of these EV players may have peaked, at least domestically in China.” — Alice Han (20:33)
• “BYD’s flash charging batteries…can charge a car within five minutes…Tesla does not have that technology.” — James Kynge (25:01)
• “Porcini mushrooms come from China—have come from Yunnan specifically—and China accounts for a third of the world’s truffles…Exports went up 60% since last year.” — Alice Han (31:57)
• “I don't think I've ever had a truffle in my life.” — James Kynge (34:54)
• “I think we could see the [Chinese] currency go up and strengthen against the dollar to around 6.8 to 6.9 by the end of the year.” — Alice Han (35:26)
• “I think that China will swallow its pride, swallow its humiliation, suffer its losses with regard to Venezuela, and I think it will play the long game.” — James Kynge (36:49)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:11 — Start of Main Episode: China’s stake and response in Venezuela
• 03:58 — James Kynge on China’s likely long-game strategy
• 11:16 — Upcoming Trump/Xi meeting and its significance
• 13:27 — China’s exposure to outstanding Venezuelan debt and wider Belt and Road loan implications
• 17:06 — China surpasses Tesla in EV sales: causes and implications
• 24:31 — Discussion of global protectionism against Chinese EVs
• 27:24 — China’s luxury food boom: caviar, truffles, and more
• 31:57 — Yunnan’s rise as a hub for premium agricultural exports
• 35:02 — 2026 predictions: Currency, US-China relations post-Venezuela
• 36:48 — Closing predictions and what to watch next

Tone & Style

The tone is analytical, informed, at times wryly humorous, and directly conversational—balancing deep geopolitical insight with anecdotal commentary and lived experiences.

For Listeners

Whether you are a business leader, policy professional, or simply curious about the shifting sands of US-China dynamics, this episode provides a dense, accessible, and up-to-the-minute discussion of major strategic, economic, and even culinary shifts defining 2026.