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China Decode: Trump Warns American Allies on China—But Beijing Keeps Winning
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Chinese tech is right at the cutting edge of global tech. Chinese culture has always been something of, you know, with many attractive points. And China's becoming the second superpower. Its economy is going forward and you know, there's a lot of admirable things happening in China. I think it's becoming somewhat cool.
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Alice Tan
Welcome to China Decode. I'm Alice Tan.
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James King
And I'm James King.
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Alice Tan
In today's episode of China Decode, we're discussing Trump warning allies of China as trade, drugs and even pandas turn geopolitical, the Panama court ruling shaking up US China influence over the canal and why everyone is saying they're now living a very Chinese time in their lives. That's all coming up, but first let's do a quick check in with how the Chinese markets are starting the week. On Monday, the Shanghai A share index fell 2.5%, the Hang Seng H share index closed down 2.2%. Precious metal miners sank. The Shanghai Gold exchange raised margin requirements after last week's historic gold selloff. Chinese EV maker BYD fell roughly 7% after reporting that January sales were down nearly 30% year on year. And telecommunications companies such as China Unicom and China Telecom slumped in response to the newly increased value added tax rate on mobile data. All right, let's get right into it. Trump is turning up the heat on American allies he says are getting too close to Beijing, warning the UK and Canada that deeper China ties are quote, unquote, dangerous. But the message is colliding with reality. British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca just inked a multi billion dollar obesity deal with a Chinese pharma giant. At the same time, Washington is quietly hedging its bets, launching a $12 billion critical mineral stockpile to blunt China's dominance over rare earths, lithium and copper. And in Asia, China's soft power is getting sharper. Japan is losing its pandas as tensions over Taiwan spill into what some are calling outright panda diplomacy. James, so much has happened in January, can I just say, before the year of the Fire Horses begun. And I would say that there is sort of a tale of two stories in the sense that we seeing improving relations with some of the G7 countries, notably Canada and the U.K. but Japan is losing its pandas. Things are getting worse between Tokyo and Beijing. How do you square up these two narratives?
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James King
Wow. I mean, yeah, as you say, Alice, I mean, the Fire Horse, the Chinese year of the Fire Horse, which is supposed to start in February, is already supposed to be a pretty turbulent year. But as you've said, the run up to the Fire Horse is proving incredibly turbulent. I would just start with the question of Trump and his comment about it being very dangerous for US allies, particularly the UK and Canada, to be inching closer to China. Is this real? Is this credible leverage, or is this empty bluster? I mean, the first thing to say is that it's really hard to call in the case of President Trump. In some cases, he appears to back down or even hold off. But in other cases, such as the attack on Venezuela in January, he delivers a lightning strike. And sometimes those actions can be military. But we should also remember the very stiff tariffs that the White House under Trump put onto India over a different commercial issue. So, you know, we just don't know which way this is going to go. But I do think that Canada, the U.K. and other U.S. allies should be taking this warning pretty seriously. And the reason I think that is because the backdrop to this really is quite revealing of the situation that we're in. To me, the big question concerns the new world order or the question of are we moving into a new world order, which is dominated by China, or is the existing world order that's dominated by the US being somehow diminished or even on the way out? And I think what happened in Beijing is really conducive to Our understanding of the crucial question of which superpower, the US or China is, is on the up and which superpower may be on the downtrend. Just let me come to some of the facts first. This visit by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to China was the third by a key US ally in the same month. That's January. At the beginning of the month, the South Korean leader visited China, then the Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, in mid January, and now you, Keir Starmer, the UK Prime Minister, in late January. All of these countries are crucial allies of the us. They all live under the military protection of the us. They all have troops, US troops, stationed on their territory. And in the case of the UK and Canada, they're both founding members of NATO, the military alliance which is led by the us. Just to round off this picture, we shouldn't forget that the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz is also expected to visit China later on this month. And Germany also has its security guaranteed by the us. US troops are stationed in Germany, and Germany is a member of NATO. So with South Korea, Canada, the UK and Germany all flirting with China, it's really not hard to see what's going on. This sort of picture is backed up by some of the honeyed language which is being used by the leaders of South Korea, Canada and the UK when they visited China. And I think flirting really is the right word because in diplomatic speak, the words being used are really flirty. You know, Keir Starmer said to the Chinese President that he wants to work on a comprehensive strategic partnership with China. Strategic partnership? The UK's strategic security is guaranteed by America, not China. So why is he talking about a strategic partnership? Carney went one stage further in that he agreed a strategic partnership with China. That's agreed. The UK is just talking about developing it. And the South Korean leader said that his country was embarking on a new phase in their relationship. I'd say that's slightly less flirty than what Starmer and Carney got up to. But to me, that's still words that might ring alarm bells in Washington. Just for context here, the US most certainly does not have a strategic partnership with China. Neither do other crucial allies of the us, such as Japan. So it comes down to what I consider to be a very stark question for the relations of the west with China going forward. And that question would be, for how long can countries that derive their security and much of their trade from the US expect to be able to get closer to China and to diversify their economies toward China and Here, Alice, you mentioned the 15 billion US dollar deal done by AstraZeneca, which is the UK's biggest company to invest in the pharmaceutical supply chain in China. So this really is a live question. I really don't know the answer. I really don't know if push is gonna come to shove and there's gonna be a big bust up as the US really decides to tighten the screws on its closest allies, or if the US is just gonna let the uk, Canada, South Korea, Germany get closer to China. From an economic perspective and possibly the closeness of that economic relationship maybe slowly hollow out the diplomatic affinity that these countries have with the U.S. i just don't know. But before I turn it back to you, Alice, let me just give some of the quotes. Okay, so first of all, Trump said, when asked about Starmer's attempts to get an economic reset with China, he said, well, he. It's very dangerous for them to do that. Right. He also said, it's even more dangerous, I think, for Canada to get into business with China. Canada is not doing well. They're doing very poorly and you can't look at China as the answer. And then, just a final remark, Starmer, when asked about Trump's remarks, said, I don't think it's wise for, for the United Kingdom to stick its head in the sand. China is the second biggest economy in the world. It is, along with Hong Kong, our third biggest trade partner. And through this visit we've opened lots of opportunities for jobs and wealth creation back in the United Kingdom. So what do you make of it all, Alice? I mean it really. I mean, the question couldn't be any bigger. This is the future of the west. And yet I'm afraid I'm scratching my head. I don't really know where this is gonna go.
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Alice Tan
Well, as you were talking, James, I was thinking, I absolutely love the flooding metaphor and I'll go into that in just a bit. But the other thing that I was thinking about as you were talking was how the question you asked, how will the west deal with China and the US Is a question at the heart of Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister's speech at Davos, which obviously had rave reviews and a standing ovation. And he was in a way charting a path for middle powers like Canada, like Britain, like Australia, like Japan, to navigate a world in which things are increasingly zero sum game. The world is increasingly moving towards some form of deglobalization. There are increasing tensions in trade and national security and technology largely centered around the locus of US China, Conflict. And my feeling is that the solution that Connie Starmer and some of these other middle powers, maybe potentially Mertz as he's going to China the next few weeks, is that somehow we need to hedge between the US and China. And because there has been a dramatic drawdown in relations with China on the part of these call it Western middle power countries in the last few years, their only real answer is that symbolically we need to go to China and announce some kind of a reset in the relationship and hopefully we can announce a reduction in tariffs, symbolic in bilateral investment flows and market access. Like if you actually break down what Carney and Starmer got back from their trips to China, I would say pretty minor and mainly symbolic because to your point, James, the US is a security guarantee to these countries. But more importantly, if we look at the geometry of trade surpluses and deficits, China is a trade surplus country with pretty much all of these middle power G7 countries. So how can Starmer, Carney, Takechi for that matter, deal with a China that is running massive and I think increasingly massive trade surpluses in a period in which China is unlikely to, I think structurally pivot towards large scale consumption led growth? That is the big question economically of our time. But I think right now people are in the tactical rather than strategic meaning that they want to go to China and in the case of Starmer, have these butterfly cookies, these Pamiers in Yuyong Garden, Shanghai, and say we're trying to broker better deals. Starmer said from his trip the great prize of engagement and he talked a lot about economic, business and even cultural relations. I thought it was interesting that he had an event with Rosamund pike, the great British actress whose son actually is fluent in Chinese and has won a global Chinese speaking competition in previous years. They talked a lot about the importance of cross cultural, cross linguistic relations. The other thing that we haven't talked about, James, is the cultural angle. And I think we'll talk about it later on the show. But I thought it was really interesting that both after Carney and Starmer's trips, China said they were going to do visa free travel, 30 day visa free travel for Canadians and Brits. And my big takeaway, which I don't think people really noticed in 2025, is that that visa free travel has been one of the biggest cultural diplomatic successes for Beijing because all of a sudden it's opened up every the West's sort of perceptions of China. You know, I think they really hit negative PR back during COVID and in the aftermath of COVID but that is starting to change. So I think that that is one of the big announcements coming out of these trips, beyond, obviously, some of the strategic economic angles. And then, last but not least, I do think that this AstraZeneca deal, which we mentioned obliquely, is a big deal. This is going to be $15 billion in the course of the next five years. Not just in terms of these variations on weight loss drugs, but also in terms of oncology R and D into cell therapy and oncology, which could be quite cutting edge and interesting as we think about the future of biotech. But again, my takeaway is that a lot of these trips are symbolic at a time where the middle powers, quote, unquote, are unhappy with Trump's unilateral policymaking and his haphazard policymaking at a foreign policy level. So it's easy for them to go to China and say, look, we're resetting relations. We're getting some deals on reducing tariffs on market access. But at the end of the day, China, I think, will win because it's still going to run massive trade surpluses with these countries. The next thing we're going to have to watch is what Mertz gets out of this trip, because Germany, in many respects, I think, is the worst off. A country that is increasingly competing with China in a lot of goods, not just autos, but chemicals even. That will be the next thing to watch. But I love the way that you framed it as flirting, and I think this very much is flirting without actually engaging in a serious relationship. Because they know at the end of the day that the serious relationship is with Washington.
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James King
Yeah. And I think your focus on AstraZeneca there is also so revealing. I mean, to say that they've fallen for the flirting would be too flippant. Because what's happened in the case of AstraZeneca, I think, is really instructive of what is happening with an increasing number of the top companies anywhere in the West. That's US Companies, German companies, UK companies, all over Europe, and that is that they're going to China. Not because they want to sell masses in China, of course, they want to sell as much as they can, but they're going there because the R and D, the research and development in this case of drugs that can be done in China is at least on a par with the very best that can be done in Europe or the US or anywhere else. And so this 15 billion US dollar investment unveiled by AstraZeneca is all about taking advantage of Chinese brain power and research capacity in the pharmaceutical area. And so I think that what's happening here is that, you know, we're seeing the draw of China not as a market so much, but as a source of cutting edge leading R and D expertise in the world. And when that happens, it basically means that the head of AstraZeneca moves to China. I think we're already seeing this in the case of other companies like vw. They have got a big research center in China. Most of their new models globally are going to be launched in China first and subsequently elsewhere around the world. And so this was another thing that really struck me about the visit of Keir Starmer. This time it's all about UK companies wanting to, you know, climb onto the zeitgeist in China, whether that be R and D or as you mentioned, the cultural upsurge or the cultural connections, rather than, you know, selling, as used to be the phrase, selling hundreds of millions of commodities to the Chinese people. So it's a very different dynamic. It's now the case that some of the biggest companies in the west can't survive globally unless they're tapped in to the Chinese R and D network. That is another uncomfortable truth that every Western country has to deal with.
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Alice Tan
Yeah, I completely agree with you. And just to underline that point, it reminds me of the CEO of ctrip who's also a famous demographer in China. He's just come out with a book. His name is James Leung. He talked about this generation of Chinese youths. The next 20 years they're going to be the most tertiary educated people on the planet. The most numerous tertiary educated people. So when you think about it, an aggregate level, that means that China is pivoting from being a major labor manufacturing input into the global supply chains to being a human capital input in the global supply chains. Which is, to your point, James, why all these companies want to move there and do R and D want to do their drug trials and drug discovery trials in China, that I think will be an ongoing trend. And AstraZeneca is a good indication of that. One thing that I will end on is that I think this panda diplomacy, what I call panda diplomacy, which is to be more on the friendly side towards countries as opposed to wolf warrior diplomacy, is probably some kind of Kung Fu panda diplomacy, if I can borrow that terminology rather facetiously, because at the same time as they're trying to make nice with these Western countries, I think things are going to get worse with Japan. Takaichi looks on the brink of getting a landslide victory in the house, and that probably will empower her to continue to take a hawkish attitude towards China. There's a big question of the yen. I could see a world in which yen weakness remains a theme compared to yuan, where again I see some appreciating pressure, notably against the dollar, but not so much against other trading currencies where it may deprec. So we may have tensions not just over Taiwan, between Japan and China, but over currencies as well. That is something to be watched, but we'll be back with more after a break. Stay with us.
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Alice Tan
Welcome back. A Panamanian court just voided a Hong Kong firm's Panama Canal port contract, a win Trump is framing as reclaiming US Influence, but Beijing is warning it will protect Chinese interests at all costs. With BlackRock and Chinese firm Cosco circling, what looks like a victory could quickly turn into another US China standoff over global trade chokepoints. James Just as things were looking dovish between China, I'm starting to get a little bit nervous and I think these are the early innings of, I believe, tension over the Panama Canal, which to the US is important. That's 40% of maritime trade to China, less so, but still China's not backing down. They want to protect Chinese interests in the region. I think this is going to be a big bellwether because remember the Trump's national security strategy last year was very much to focus on Latin America and the Americas. So I think this could be a canary in the coal mine or a yardstick to see where US China relations end up this year. What is your take on this?
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James King
Well, I think, you know the two superpowers, the US And China, are squaring off quite uncompromisingly over the Panama Canal. As you know, Alice, President Trump has said that he wants to take back the Panama Canal. Then he rode back from that last year. And later on he said that the shipping rates along the canal should be lowered. And then he added, if they are not lowered, quote, we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us in full, quickly and without question. So I think there is a question in my mind, at least, as to how much US Pressure lay behind the court ruling by a Panama court last week that says that the contracts to run two ports on the Panama Canal, that's Cristobal and Balboa, that were given to a Hong Kong ports and shipping company, C.K. hutchinson, were unconstitutional. You know, we don't have any readings on how much, if any, US Pressure was applied behind the scenes, but I do think it's quite interesting that this court ruling took place and comes against a backdrop of President Trump saying that he wants the Panama Canal to come back. Just as a small matter of detail here, the Danish firm Maersk will apparently temporarily take over the operation of the two ports that I've mentioned. And then I think a longer term solution is likely to be hammered out. According to the court ruling that annulled CK Hutchinson's contract to operate the ports. It said that CK Hutchinson's contract, quote, disproportionate bias towards the Hong Kong company. And you know, this is a big deal because this Hong Kong company, CK Hutchinson holdings, has managed the ports since 1997 under a concession, and that concession that was renewed in 2021 for a period of 25 years. So we really are talking about, you know, a really long term contract to operate the two big ports at either end of the Panama Canal. And just for context here, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Beijing will take all measures necessary to firmly protect the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies. So obviously, as you mentioned, Alice, China is not taking this lying down. The other thing that I think's crucial to say here is that there's a much bigger hinterland to this question because some US Officials have mentioned their dissatisfaction with the Chinese ownership of other ports in the Latin America area. In particular, there's a big port in Peru called Chiang Kai which is operated by the Chinese company Costco Shipping. They have about a 60% stake in that port. And some former senior US military officials have said that this port has a potential for dual use by both civilian and military actors, obviously suggesting that the Chinese could use this port in the future for some kind of military use. So there's a statement of dissatisfaction there. There's another statement of dissatisfaction from US Officials who've been anonymous in the articles that I've read saying that Washington is watching with concern a proposed something called a bi oceanic corridor railway project that is to be built between ports in Peru, such as the Chancai one that I'm talking about way over the Amazon into Brazil. And that railway would connect with Brazilian ports on the Atlantic Ocean. So Washington is watching with concern, according to anonymous US Officials quoted in US Media. And last year, Argentina effectively blocked a Chinese company's involvement in a project to deepen a crucial transportation waterway in Argentina. So we can see that the US And China are squaring off behind the scenes and very publicly in the case of the Panama ports over the issue of who controls crucial infrastructure in Latin America. So I think this issue, as you say, Alice, I think it really could run and it could become more and more antagonistic between the US And China. What's your sense?
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Alice Tan
Yeah, I agree with that. And just as Obama was talking about the pivot to Asia, if you recall that being the Kurt Campbell phrase, I think it's a pivot to Latin America from Washington, somewhere closer to home, whereby they are very worried about China's infrastructure investment in critical minerals in ports and infrastructure. They see it as a security threat. And that's why I think this port discussion is. I think it's going to blow up, it's going to increase in its tenor because ultimately the Trump administration sees this as a key risk. 40% of US container traffic transits the canal. So from Washington's vantage point, China could use this to effectively block 40% of goods going into the US via the Panama Canal. And from China's perspective, they actually want cosco, this Chinese shipping company, to be part of the consortium. If you recall last year that was floated, that includes BlackRock and shipping company MSC, that would buy up CK Hutchinson's contracts in Panama and elsewhere. So that's 43 ports in 23 countries that was announced last March. So the fact that mofcom is intervening, China's Ministry of Commerce is trying to get in and saying that it will defend at all costs the interests of Chinese investors, I think is pretty telling and again, I think pretty strong rhetoric coming out of Beijing. So I'm not sure if either side will stand down in this, this fight over the Panama Canal. And I would be worried if I were Beijing looking at my strategic investments elsewhere in Latin America after the Venezuela, effectively regime change or regime rather alteration, as my colleagues call it because now Trump can point to Venezuela when he talks to other Latin American and Central American countries and say, oh, by the way, you don't want this to happen to you, right? So I think you should get rid of these Chinese contracts or block Chinese investment going into the region. I think this is going to be a big theme in 2026. And then last but not least, I sense this is going to be a year of port risks because I'm also worried about the Straits of Hormuz. We haven't seen that fully off the table. Certainly tensions between US and Iran have died down. But I'm worried about Israel, Iran tensions where I think Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has an incentive, I think to do some kind of escalation of bombings on Iran in the first half of this year so we could see renewed tensions and questions about the integrity of the Straits of Hormuz, where 30% of the world's oil is shipped. And remember, about 15% of China's seaborne crude comes from Iran. So I wouldn't be surprised if China is going to continue to diversify away from not just Venezuela, but Iran, where there's still a lot of dependency on Iranian oil. So I think we should be watching this closely. There's a lot of risks in these ports, not just Panama, but even closer to Iran. But how do you see China's Latin America strategy? We discussed this previously, James, after the National Security Strategy document from the US that came out a couple months ago. Do you sense that China is changing its strategy towards Latin America?
- [32:52]
James King
Not really so far. I mean, I do think that this, the U.S. identifying the Western hemisphere, by which it means primarily, I think Latin America has been a big shock to China. I think there's no question about that. I don't think that Beijing has decided quite exactly how it wants to deal with increased US Assertiveness in Latin America. Obviously it wants to fight tooth and nail to maintain some of its assets and the assets that its companies control, like the ports that we've been talking about. But at the same time, it really doesn't want to antagonize the US Especially I think under President Trump, because President Trump has shown that he is willing to take proper action. We haven't mentioned Cuba yet, but you know, there are US Warships around Cuba. China is an increasingly close friend of Cuba. You know, I think the last thing that China wants is to be on the other side of a US Led conflagration in Latin America that could then antagonize US Relationships with China at a much deeper level across the board. And to go back to our previous conversation, alienate some of China's increasing allies in Europe and Canada, the UK and all of that. So I think China wants to cling on to to its assets but avoid poking the American bald eagle. If that's not mixing a metaphor.
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Alice Tan
Yeah, definitely. And just to round up that discussion, my own take is that China has been worried about the relative weakness and decline that Trump has unearthed in the axis of ill will. Call it so Russia, Iran, North Korea, China and part of the G7 pivot part of the pivot to do panda diplomacy with Canada, the UK and Europe is to again reduce some of China's foreign policy risks by being in the last few years too attached to Russia, to Iran, to Venezuela. And my own sense is that that Venezuela coup or Venezuela regime change has been a bit of a wake up call for Beijing. It is going to tread carefully in Latin America because to your point, James, it doesn't want to antagonize the U.S. and so I think will focus on Europe, G7 global, South, elsewhere and Central Asia, where it seems this Trump administration is less concerned. All right, let's take one last quick break. Stay with us.
- [35:26]
Narrator/Host
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Alice Tan
We stay stocked on Liquid IV in this house. Love the lemon lime flavor. Love tangerine. Keeps us healthy, keeps us hydrated. Use it all the time.
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- [37:51]
James King
ABC's David Muir, the most trusted anchor in America. The most watched anchor in America. Thank you for making World News Tonight with David Muir the number one newscast in America.
- [38:02]
Narrator/Host
Most trusted, most watched David Muir on abc.
- [38:07]
Alice Tan
Welcome back. Suddenly everyone online is claiming they're living a very Chinese time in their lives, posting videos of dim sum, kanji, tai chi and hot water routines. It's playful, viral and full of memes. But it also reflects something deeper. Many Americans feel disillusioned with their own country, especially after President Trump's chaos abroad and at home, and are looking to China as a model of efficiency, culture and stability. What started as a joke on social media now touches on Chinese soft power identity and how pop culture can turn geopolitics to into a meme. James I have to say that this is was my recommendation and I'm actually very excited about this because I have been noticing in the couple of months an uptick in people talking about China maxing I had to look up what that was living quote unquote a very Chinese time in their lives and a real upswing in consumer fashion interest in Chinese traditional Mandarin jackets or the tongue jackets with the the frog button clasps, if you recall. And I've been trying to figure out what this is all about. Very curious to hear what you have to say about this. But my own sense is that people are starting to see China from a less critical perspective A because they're getting more Content on it via social media like Chinese platforms including TikTok and RedNote. And B, because of the visa free travel we were talking about, people in the west are going out there. They're actually seeing China and seeing that it's not as dark and authoritarian on the surface as they originally thought. And so that is in consonance with, I think, more disillusionment about America's power, its cultural power. As a result, people are trying to, you know, adopt some of these Chinese habits that I mentioned. Always funny to me is people talking about keeping warm, not doing hard workouts, you know, drinking hot water because cold water is bad for you. Don't eat raw cold food because it's bad for your stomach. These are all sort of Chinese practices that were drilled into me as a kid, which I tried to avoid, but now they're coming back with a vengeance. I'm very curious to hear what you have to say, James.
- [40:30]
James King
Well, I mean, my sense of this is that China's becoming quite cool. You know, Chinese tech is right at the cutting edge of global tech. Chinese culture has always been something of, you know, with many attractive points. And China's becoming the second superpower, its economy is going forward and, you know, there's a lot of admirable things happening in China. I think it's becoming somewhat cool when it comes to China Maxing. I have to say I had my own experience the other day, Alice. I was up in Yorkshire in the north of the uk, where I come from. It's a tiny little farming village. It's a small. About as far away culturally from China as you could imagine. But we all had our early Chinese New Year and everybody, everybody got dressed up in whatever Chinese clothes they had and we had Chinese lanterns up. And the oldest person around the table was 88 years old and the youngest was just out of their teens. And then we had a Chinese riddle game. Everybody came up with their own Chinese riddles. It wasn't a traditional Chinese New Year, but I. Everyone had a great time and I reckon that, you know, if Chinese culture is hitting this village in Yorkshire, then why isn't it, you know, why can't it hit everywhere, really? What's your sense? Obviously you have Chinese heritage, which I don't have. Are you happy to see this? Is this something. Do you feel a sense of inclusiveness towards Chinese culture in Western societies? Or how do you read it?
- [42:00]
Alice Tan
Well, on the surface, I see it as a positive. As somebody who is ethnically Chinese, grew up in Australia at a time in the 90s where a lot of Chinese culture was derided or castigated or seen as somehow inferior to Western culture. I remember being a kid feeling honestly a little bit embarrassed to be Chinese. And that obviously has evolved now, 20 years or so later, where I have a deepfound interest and deep set appreciation for my Chinese heritage and culture. But what is interesting to me is that the nomenclature, whether it's Chinese baddie, China maxing, you met me at a very Chinese time in my life is largely driven by Gen Z and youths. It's not just the diaspora of Chinese people have gone to live in, say, the UK and Australia. It's people from other ethnic groups as well. And it's sort of reminds me, again, I'm curious, James, if you agree with this hypothesis of a Japanese and Korean culture. So if you remember as a kid, I watched so much Pokemon and Sailor Moon and Dragon Ball Z, you know, Japan was seen as the coolest culture in the 90s, whether it was, you know, TV shows or music or comic books. And now more recently, it's Korea with K Pop, K Beauty, K Pop Demon Hunters, for instance. I think we're starting to see signs that Chinese culture is getting a mainstream appeal in everyday life beyond China. And it's obviously helped by the velocity of social media out there. But it's been an interesting thing to watch in particular in fashion. I don't know if you've been seeing this, James, but it's been very viral to go to China to buy these, what they call Adidas tongue style jackets. So these Adidas sports jackets that have the Panko the frog button closures at the front and they've apparently sold out because a lot of ethnic Chinese people from living overseas come to buy it or tourist stores are buying it. I'm going to try to check that out when I go to mainland in a month or so. But this is all signs that, you know, Chinese culture is starting to have a valence beyond just mainland China. And I think my prediction would be that we may start to see Chinese films get traction globally, maybe even a Chinese boy band or two to follow in the footsteps of the Koreans. This will be, I think, an interesting turning point to see if the Chinese cultural expansion can go beyond the memes that we're starting to see on social media.
- [44:39]
James King
That's really interesting, I must say. I agree that that is probably gonna be the case. I mean, you know, I guess I was a student in China in the 1980s. You know, at that time we saw all of this Chinese medicine, Chinese cooking, many different, really appealing aspects of China's culture. And I would say out of my student group, almost unanimously we appreciated it, you know, because it was quite different from what we had in or have in. And we could see the wisdom of it and the kind of cuteness as well. I mean, all of these festivals, like Chinese New Year and the Dragon Boat Festival and Mid Autumn and, you know, several other things, there are very beguiling stories that go around it, and you can see that a lot more on the streets of London. The type of Chinese restaurant, for instance you get in London now is way, way more diverse and interesting than it was, say, 20, 30 years ago. So. So I think that Chinese culture is going global. But I also found online when I was researching some of this, that not every ethnic Chinese person thinks the same way. I came across a Singaporean Chinese, a Singaporean Chinese influencer online. And she said she initially found it quite endearing, this very Chinese time of my life meme. But then she said that it began to irk her. And she says, look, I know it's a bit of superficial fun, but, you know, she said, I can remember the days of the pandemic when racism against Chinese people was quite strong on the streets. And she said that people like her were getting harassed when they sort of walked down the street or they went into shops. And so she said, but nowadays this sort of shift towards everything about China, maxing China is cool is a rather bitter pill to swallow. I can see that. I can sympathize with her, actually, I must say, because it is true to say that in many parts of the West, China was not popular during the days of the pandemic and there was racism directed at Chinese people.
- [46:52]
Alice Tan
Yeah. And just to add to that, James, I've also seen a couple of Instagram reels and posts about the fact that they're worried these are ethnic Chinese people talking about this. They're worried about the cultural appropriation that comes with this meme culture. And with Chinese fashion becoming popular, there's a. Apparently one of the top fashion trends in 2026 is these Chinese style tongue jackets. If you recall, Jackie Kennedy's sister, Lee Radazole well wore them. They were used to be very, very popular in the 70s and in the 80s, and they're coming back in style. So this begs the question, to what extent is it cultural appropriation? But my other big takeaway from all of this is that we're starting to see people have a more nuanced view, or dislocation rather, between China, the Political economic system, the country that is a national security threat, running massive trade surpluses and authoritarian regime and Chinese culture. And I think that's a positive step for me personally to have an understanding that those two can be quite distinct and that the Chinese culture can organically thrive in communities and ecosystems as distinct from China, the political economic system. All right, James, you know what time it is? It is prediction time. As you look into your crystal ball, what is your prediction for this week?
- [48:13]
James King
I'm going to go back to the issue of Latin American infrastructure and say that the US Is going to get heavy on at least some of those pieces of infrastructure that I was mentioning earlier. We have already seen it with the Panama Canal. I think that Washington is dead serious about that. I don't think they're going to allow the Panamanians or the Chinese to unravel their ambition to basically take back control of the Panama Canal. And then I think we will see China going for some of the other big China controlled infrastructure in the region. Not sure exactly how they're gonna do it, but I should imagine it will include putting pressure on some of the Latin American countries that we've already mentioned. I don't wanna try to guess which one, but what I'm really trying to say is that I think the US is dead serious about this. This is the locus of their strategic competition with China right now.
- [49:13]
Alice Tan
Are you worried about Cuba?
- [49:15]
James King
I mean, you know, I'm no expert on Cuba, but. But the warships surrounding Cuba, I don't know how the US will try to deal with that, but I mean, they're obviously interested.
- [49:29]
Alice Tan
Yeah, that's my big worry for 2026. When I think about China's influence in the region, if Cuba falls, that's going to be a big one for them. My prediction for this week is somewhat based on my location, James. As you know, I am in Hong Kong. I just landed a few hours ago. And last year Hong Kong reclaimed its place as the top spot for IPOs in 2025 after a huge slump in previous years. A total of 114 companies raised almost US$40 billion in Hong Kong. I think my hot take for Hong Kong will be that this year we'll see a record IPO year with more money raised than last year. I see a lot of enthusiasm about things coming back to life, investors coming back to Hong Kong. And Hong Kong is poised to benefit from a lot of the outside investors interest in getting China exposure. Because if you know, one of the big takeaways from Davos was that major asset managers need to continue to diversify risk and allocate their portfolio outside of the US and not be too overweight. Usually if I look to other areas, China is going to be part of that portfolio and I think increasingly so Hong Kong is the bright spot there and I think what a lot of investors will look to.
- [50:47]
James King
So Hong Kong IPOs are China maxing?
- [50:50]
Alice Tan
Yes, they are China maxing, James, to borrow the modern parlance. I like that. I should borrow that. I'll put that in my presentation for tomorrow. All right, that's all for this episode. Thank you for listening to China Decode. This is a production of Prof. G Media. Our producers are David Toledo, Eric Janikis and Ness Smith Savadoff. Thank you to Kathryn Dillon, Drew Burrows, Billy Bennett, Dan Shalon, William Flynn, Jesse Millwood, Gil Espinoza, James Patton, and Isabel Kinsel for production help every week. Make sure to follow us wherever you get your podcast so you can you don't miss an episode. Talk to you again next week.