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Episode: China Decode – Why Unrest in Iran is a Problem for China

Date: January 13, 2026
Hosts: Alice Han & James King
Guest: Michal Maiden (Director, China Energy Program, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)

Episode Overview

This episode of China Decode delves into the cascading geopolitical crises facing China in early 2026, focusing on the twin upheavals in Venezuela and Iran. The hosts explore the profound implications for China’s energy security, foreign policy, and global influence—with insights from energy expert Michal Maiden. The conversation also investigates China’s increasingly comprehensive and sophisticated approach to Latin America and wraps with an examination of the country’s surprising new “fat prisons” and the rapid commercialization of weight-loss drugs.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Chinese Foreign Policy in Crisis: Iran and Venezuela

• Oil at Risk:
  • Massive protests in Iran and regime turmoil threaten 15% of China’s imported oil; the ouster of Venezuela’s Maduro by US forces risks 4% more.
  • Combined, these countries represent around 20% of China’s oil imports. ([04:18])
• Strategic Investments:
  • China is Iran’s largest trade partner and economic lifeline, buying 90% of its oil at a discount due to sanctions.
  • Chinese loans to Iran total at least $25 billion for infrastructure, with a staggering 25-year, $400 billion investment agreement signed in 2021. ([05:50])
• Broader Implications:
  • The US’s “Donroe Doctrine” signals a return to Monroe Doctrine-style exclusion of non-hemispheric powers (code for China/Russia) from Latin America.
  • The double blow to Iran and Venezuela is “an annus horribilis for Chinese foreign policy.” —James King, [04:18]

2. China’s Deepening Roots in Latin America

• Beyond Oil:
  • China’s economic reach is expanded by arms sales, military training, 5G infrastructure, and satellite ground stations.
  • "China has more space infrastructure in Latin America than anywhere else outside of mainland China." —Alice Han, [09:47]
• Policy Shift:
  • The release of China’s third policy paper on Latin America stresses “a community with a shared future,” hinting at deeper cultural and development ties.
  • “For the first time, development assistance is included in the policy—foreign aid at a time of US retrenchment.” —Alice Han, [08:41]
• Not So Easily Dislodged:
  • Research shows China is now the primary trading partner in 10 of 12 South American countries, building core infrastructure, securing lithium and copper, and cementing its economic leadership.
  • “China's tentacles are so deeply embedded… it's just not going to be that easy for America to take its hemisphere back.” —James King, [13:49]

3. Strategic Setback for ‘Axis of Ill Will’

• Axis of Ill Will Strained:
  • Russia mired in Ukraine, Iran rocked by protests, Venezuela toppled—leaving China’s old playbook of supporting US antagonists in question ([15:08]).
  • “There must be policymakers in Beijing…wondering about the wisdom of that policy now … This really is a big setback.” —James King, [15:58]

4. Energy, Sanctions, and Securities (with Michal Maiden)

• Direct Consequences of Venezuela’s Oil Loss:
  • The loss is “operationally surmountable” (only 4% of total imports and easily substituted), but the disruption in debt repayments and cancellation of contracts could be a major financial hit ([21:48]).
  • “None of this is sort of dramatic or devastating if the flows stop… the repayment of loans is a problem.” —Michal Maiden, [21:48]
• Sanctions Evasion:
  • China and others use “dark fleet” tankers and sophisticated financing to evade sanctions, raising costs but finding ways to move oil ([24:24]).
• Broader Risks:
  • Discussions about US seizing other Chinese assets beyond Venezuela, e.g., ports near the Panama Canal, and scrutinizing mineral investments in countries like Chile ([25:48], [28:43]).
• Chinese Response:
  • Stockpiling more oil, focusing on domestic extraction, diversifying contracts/partners, and emphasizing trade in yuan (RMB), especially with sanctioned states ([32:03]).

5. Internal Setbacks: Obesity, “Fat Prisons,” and the GLP1 Drug Boom

• New ‘Fat Prisons’:
  • “Military-style boot camps” for rapid weight loss have proliferated, locking in participants for weeks of enforced regimen.
  • “She looks like she’s about to cry…after 14 days, she’d lost about four kilos. And she paid $1,500 for the privilege.” —James King, [36:46]
• Obesity as a National Crisis:
  • Over half of Chinese adults are overweight, with numbers projected to rise to 65% by 2030; obese children quadrupled since 2000 ([38:43]).
  • Government has launched a “weight management campaign” with likely Five-Year Plan integration.
• Pharmaceutical Response:
  • Dozens of domestic GLP1 (Ozempic-style) anti-obesity drugs are in the pipeline, likely to spark a price war and cut global prices ([41:30], [47:29]).
  • Notably, GLP1 drugs for pets are already entering the Chinese market.
  • “By 2030, the Chinese market for these… drugs could reach about $14 billion in sales annually.” —James King, [42:40]
• Changing Lifestyles:
  • Sedentarism, takeout culture (“Waimai”), and stressful office jobs fuel the obesity surge ([44:59]).
  • “Maybe the solution…is for people to go back to what they used to do…communal exercises.” —James King, [45:56]

6. Predictions

• James King: At least 10 new GLP1 (weight loss) drugs approved in China by year’s end, mostly domestic, sparking a global price drop as China undercuts foreign firms ([47:29]).
• Alice Han: A fitness and sports boom in China, with new opportunities for gyms, sports equipment, and sportswear as national policy promotes healthier living ([48:38]).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “2026 could not have got off to a worse start for Chinese foreign policy.”
  — James King, [05:50]

• “China has more space infrastructure in Latin America than anywhere else outside of mainland China.”
  — Alice Han, [09:47]

• “China's tentacles are so deeply embedded… it's just not going to be that easy for America to take its hemisphere back.”
  — James King, [13:49]

• “This is the weakest I’ve seen the axis of ill will countries… Russia depleted in Ukraine, Iran on the brink, North Korea unpredictable.”
  — Alice Han, [15:08]

• “If those [Chinese] assets in the rest of Latin America would come under attack, that would be a huge problem…and a huge loss of face for Beijing.”
  — Michal Maiden, [26:55]

• “China's policy banks are already assessing their risk exposure—everyone’s anxious.”
  — Michal Maiden, [29:37]

• “By 2030, 65% of Chinese adults could be overweight…a staggering statistic.”
  — Alice Han, [38:43]

• “Not only humans in China, but also pets…are perhaps going to be receiving these slimming drugs…including cats.”
  — James King, [42:40]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Chinese Markets & Opening Context: [02:05]
• Iran and Venezuela: Impact on China: [04:18] – [13:05]
• China-Latin America Policy & Security Concerns: [07:47], [09:47]
• Axis of Ill Will – Foreign Policy Reassessment: [15:08] – [16:44]
• Interview with Michal Maiden (Venezuelan Oil, US Sanctions): [21:12] – [34:40]
• China’s Obesity Crisis, Fat Prisons, Weight-loss Drugs: [35:34] – [47:29]
• Hosts’ Predictions: [47:29] – [49:00]

Memorable Moments

• The notion that the US could “take back the Panama Canal,” not because China owns it, but because its ports at both ends are run by a Hong Kong conglomerate ([25:48]).
• The revelation that China’s satellite ground station network is denser in Latin America than anywhere else outside China ([09:47]).
• Irina Jo’s story about her cat gaining an anti-obesity prescription (“Not just people are getting fat in China, but cats too” —James King, [42:40]).

Episode Tone

The conversation is analytical, occasionally urgent, but also features wry humor—especially in the exploration of “fat prisons” and the absurdity of pet-directed weight-loss drugs. Both hosts bring a centrist, global lens and pragmatic skepticism to international affairs and China’s policy moves.

For listeners seeking an in-depth look at the interplay between China’s energy security, foreign relations, and emerging social challenges, this episode offers a nuanced and illuminating discussion grounded in data, expert opinion, and on-the-ground insights.