Transcript
Robin Arzon (0:00)
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Henry Blodgett (0:37)
AI can fix Health Care I'm Henry Blodgett and this week on my show Solutions, I had a fascinating conversation with Dr. Bob Wachter, author of A Giant How AI is Transforming Healthcare and what It Means for our future. Dr. Wachter was not expecting to be an AI optimist. What convinced him? Find Follow Solutions with Henry Blodgett wherever you get your podcasts to hear more.
Scott Galloway (1:03)
Welcome to a special episode of the Prov G Pod. We're recording this on Monday, March 2, just three days after the United States and Israel launched a large scale military campaign against Iran following months of escalating tensions. On February 28, US and Israeli forces struck hundreds of military, missile and command infrastructure targets across Iran in an operation the two governments say killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and scores of Iranian senior leaders. President Trump has said the campaign could continue for four or five weeks, and the Pentagon has confirmed US Military casualties, with American troops killed in action and more expected. In response, Iran has launched ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli cities and US Bases across the Middle east, including in Gulf states. Rocket and drone exchanges have also drawn in Hezbollah and Lebanon, prompting Israeli strikes there as well. The conflict now spans multiple fronts, has disrupted oil markets and global air travel, and drawn warnings from world leaders about risk of wider regional escalation. Here with me to discuss all of this is Fareed Zakaria, a journalist, author and political commentator. Fried, I imagine you're one of the most in demand people in the world right now, so let's bust right into it. Imagine your Secretary of State, which by the way is not a stretch. And these days when we have talk show hosts who are now in the Cabinet. But imagine you're Secretary of State, and three days or three weeks maybe before what might be an imminent attack, you're asked to do kind of a risk assessment. Risks to the upside, risks to the downside of attacking military action against Iran. Walk us through each of those, in your view.
Fareed Zakaria (2:59)
Sure. So it's a surprising mission because remember, eight months ago, the United States and Israel did a very successful series of strikes that destroyed Iran's nuclear program, killed most of the leading Iranian nuclear scientists, something that often isn't talked about, and killed about 20 senior commanders of the Iranian military. So the upside here would be that you get a decapitation of the regime that causes the regime to collapse. That is clearly what the great hope has been, not just for the President, who announced that as the goal of his mission, but also Prime Minister Netanyahu who said that in a video. He said, this is a 40 year dream of mine. And remember, the Iranian nuclear program is not 40 years old in that sense. What he's talking about is really getting rid of the regime itself. So that's the big prize. That's the main thing they're looking for. On the upside next, really defang Iran. So this is now not just about the nuclear program, but about Iran as a regional power. And you can do a lot of damage. You can destroy their navy, you can destroy their ballistic missile capability, you can destroy the military industrial complex, so the ballistic missile making facilities, the port facilities that actually house the ships, things like that. And finally, you can use this opportunity also to destroy them and to set them back so much economically that they're not gonna be able to fund Hezbollah anymore, they're not gonna be able to fund the Iraqi militias anymore, at least not in any substantial degree. So basically break the back of the regime and hope that the regime collapses. That seems to me to be the big upside is this is a highly institutionalized regime. This is not a single dictator. This is not Saddam Hussein, this is not even Putin. This is a very complicated, institutionalized regime with a clerical establishment, a military establishment of a worked out relationship between those two groups. A little bit like the Communist Party and the army in the old Soviet Union and to a certain extent in modern China. And so it's not clear that that's going as easy. You can always get lucky. But it seems hard. And it's particularly hard given that you're not gonna use ground troops. You're trying to do it from the air. Very hard to do regime change from the air. You can look at Afghanistan and Libya, but remember, there were ground forces, they just weren't ours. The Northern alliance was in Afghanistan, sweeping through province after province, while the CIA and American air power helped them. In Libya, there was a huge insurgency that the United States and others were Helped by the bombing here, we don't have anybody. There is no army on the ground. So that's the principal limitation. And the principal danger here is at the end of the day, you have defined success as regime change. President Trump announced it in his message and Prime Minister Netanyahu talked about it. And it's obvious survival is victory for them. The second challenge is going to be the regional element. Though I wouldn't put this that high, but it's real. They could disrupt things regionally substantially. My own view is that's a short term risk. You notice oil prices have not gone through the roof. They've gone up. Gas prices haven't gone through the roof because all these facilities can be repaired. Iran does not have an unlimited supply of these kind of weapons. What's really striking is how well the air defenses of the UAE have held up. Even of Saudi, though we know a little bit less about it. And most importantly, this was the biggest miscalculation the Iranians made. They've united the Gulf in support of this mission. Think about it. You now have the Gulf Arabs supporting an American Israeli mission against Iran because the Iranians have been retaliating willy nilly at nine different Arab countries. This was probably the biggest single mistake they made. And the other downside, I think is you could imagine a circumstance where there is now a kind of generic instability built into the region. A little bit like the Houthis in Yemen that you're gonna have to deal with. Persian Gulf becomes a kind of dangerous territory. Insurance companies aren't willing to go there. I think the principal danger is the survival. The other two are reasonable dangers. But remember, overall, Iran is very, very weak. So it doesn't have a lot of cards that it can play.
